Month: January 2008

I love it when SSP makes their big page on candidate fundraising.  Unfortunately we haven’t even gotten a tease with some information yet.  

Here’s an update from Al Franken’s campaign: (From an e-mail to supporters)

We’re proud to announce that, in the fourth fundraising quarter, we raised nearly $1.9 million. And we’re even prouder to announce that, since Al began his campaign, we’ve received contributions from over 81,000 people. Read that again. Over 81,000 people have invested in our campaign for change.

Let’s start the 4th Q numbers rolling.  If you know anyone’s numbers, post them below!

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, which having filing deadlines coming up, and IL, where filing is already closed.  Today I look at Maryland, where the filing date is also past

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Maryland has 8 congressional districts

6 are held by Democrats, 2 by Republicans.

The 6 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?          rating

2         D+8    .26       Ruppersbergre    Yes                Fairly safe

3         D+7    .42       Sarbanes         Yes (a bunch)       Slight vul

4         D+30   .14       Wynn             Yes (and primary!)  Safe

5         D+9    .56       Hoyer            Yes (and primary!)  Safe

7         D+25   .08       Cummings         Yes (and primary!)  Safe

8         D+20   .38       van Hollen       Yes (and primary!)  Safe

Some of the primaries might get interesting, but I think we are pretty safe with these 6

Only 2 Republican seats: The first and the sixth.

MD-01 R +10 .74 The 1st is the eastern shore of the Chesapeake Bay, and some Republican areas between Annapolis and Baltimore.

Gilchrest, first elected in 1990, is a very moderate Republican, with a 60 rating from the ACLU and 67 from League of Conservation Voters and a 0 from the Christian Coalition.

He’s facing both primary and GE challenges.  I think if he survives the primary, he will probably win the general.  He has won easily in the past, without having to raise much money.  Still, there are Democrats running: Frank Kravotil (cute pic on the web page; 4 boys) and Christopher Robinson and Steve Harper and Joseph Werner.  Back in October, Steve Singiser reported FEC filings :

Rep. Wayne Gilchrest–GOP (91K/414K)

Andy Harris–GOP (352K/402K)

Frank Kratovil–DEM (83K/111K)

(the numbers are amount raised in 3rd quarter, and cash on hand.

MD-06 R +13 .80

The 6th is mostly western MD.

Bartlett, first elected in 1992, got challenged by Andrew Duck in 2006; in one of the cheaper contested races (total spending for both was about $630,000), Bartlett won 59-38.

This year, he faces a primary challenge, and then Duck is running again, as are Robin Deibert and Jennifer Dougherty and Rick Lank

Summary:

I think all 8 seats look pretty safe, unless one of the Republicans loses a primary battle to a right wing loon.

With a few filing deadlines past, I think its time we take a look at which races we should be looking at in the coming year.  There will be many races where fundraising will be key and netroots support can make that fundraising possible.  

Illinois is going to be an interesting place come this November, especially if Barack Obama is the Democrats presidential nominee.  With Dick Durbin a safe bet for his Senate Seat, the Democrats could have 2 very big coattails for their downballot races and there are many opportuities in this state.  

We have a great chance to get rid of a DINO in Dan Lipinski early on in the 3rd Congressional District with Mark Pera, who would then be a safe bet to win come November.  It is imperative that we give Pera our full support early on as he will need every dollar to overcome the now splinterd anti-Lipinski vote.  Everyone here understands that we will need Democrats of all shapes and colors to overcome the Republicans, but what we really need are good Democrats, especially in Districts that should have good Democrats like this one should.  

The second race to watch is the 6th congressional district, where 30 year army veteran, local businesswoman, and the former director of the Illinois Department of Homeland Security, Colonel Jill Morganthaler is running.  While the current holder of the seat, Peter Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth by the skin of this teeth, he did so during a year that has no presidential or senatorial coattails to assist the downballot races.  Col. Morganthaler can give Roskam yet another race for his life and anywhere we can put Republicans on the defense is one less place they can attack us and leaves less money for them to defend other seats.  

The Democratic held 8th CD is next on my list, though at first look, it appears Congresswoman Melissa Bean will escape a real challenge this year.  The main Republican candidate is businessman Steve Greenberg, and while he is raising some money, Congresswoman Bean has over 1 million dollars more than Greenburg has all together and Greenburg will have to spend that money beating back a couple of minor primary challengers and introducing himself to the district.  I expect this district, which Republicans hope to contest, won’t be much of a race, but Bean has had recent close contests, is listed as a Frontline Dem by the DCCC and is on the NRCC target list, so we’ll keep an eye on this race until it proves to be the blowout I’m expecting.  

the 10th congressional district will see a Democratic primary between 2006 nominee Dan Seals, and a Clinton Administration official, Jay Footlik.  Seals is the favorite to win the primary at this time and is raising significant amounts of money.  He will once again challenge Republican Mark Kirk and with his name recognition higher after last years close defeat, the DCCC should play heavily here.  Coattails can also play a part in this race as well.  Just like 06, this race will once again be a race to watch (and spend money on)

In the 11th CD, state senate majority leader Debbie Halvorsen is in the race for this open seat.  It appears that New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman will be her opponent though he has to face some minor primary challengers first.  Halvorsen has significant support and name recognition as her state senate district overlaps this congressional district.  I’d give Halvorsen a slight edge in this race thus far and it is by far one of our best pick up opportunities in the state.  

For my last major pick up opportunity, we go to Illinois 14th district, formerly held by the Congressman no one on this site will miss in Denny Hastert.  John Laesch is the 2006 nominee and he is back again this year but has had some lackluster fundraising numbers thus far, not including his 4th quarter totals.  Meanwhile, Bill Foster, a scientist and local businessman has over 500,000 cash on hand and appears to be the favorite to get the Dem nod, especially after getting the endorsement of Senator Durbin.  The Republicans will have a serious primary between State Senator Chris Lauzen and the businessman who has lost a race for just about everything, Jim Oberweis.  Oberweis appears to be the favorite of the Republican establishment but Lauzen has raised more money.  Lets hope they beat the crap out of each other and that things get really really nasty.  

On the bottom of my listing here, are 4 races that have candidates who seems to be doing ok in fundraising but aren’t excelling, though with a little netroots help, may just make life even more miserable for the GOP in this state and nationwide.  

Scott Harper in the 13th congressional district, Robert Abboud in the 16th congressional district, the 18th congressional district, where Democrats will choose who the nominee will be after the only filed candidate, Dick Versace, dropped out, and Joe McMenamin in the 19th congressional district have all raised over 50,000 dollars and could become thorns in the side of a GOP that is going to be stretched to its limits.  These lower races here could also burst onto the scene in a similar fashion as those of Carol Shea-Porter and Nancy Boyda, especially if Obama is the nominee.  Illinois has the potential to be a hotbed of Democratic activity next year and we need to give them all the support we can.  

I’ll be doing the rest of the states shortly and then intend to update the lists as things go on.  

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

(Cross-posted from DKos)

As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio’s filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.

Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.

Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.

First of all, the list. I scoured official and media resources Saturday morning, so there may be some mistakes. Clean them up in the comments, if you find one…

OH 01 (DEM): Steve Driehaus

OH 01 (GOP): Rep. Steve Chabot

OH 02 (DEM): Steve Black, Victoria Wulsin, William Smith

OH 02 (GOP): Rep. Jean Schmidt, Tom Brinkman, Phil Heimlich, Nathan Bailey

OH 03 (DEM): David Esrati, Jane Mitakides, Charles W. Sanders

OH 03 (GOP): Rep. Mike Turner

OH 04 (DEM): Mike Carroll

OH 04 (GOP): Rep. Jim Jordan

OH 05 (DEM): George Mays

OH 05 (GOP): Rep. Bob Latta, Scott Radcliffe, Michael Reynolds

OH 06 (DEM): Rep. Charlie Wilson

OH 06 (GOP): A Republican candidate filed, could not find a name.

OH 07 (DEM): Bill Conner, Sharen Neuhardt, Jack Null, Thomas Scrivens, David Woolever, Richard Wyderski

OH 07 (GOP): Steve Austria, Dan Harkins, Ron Hood, John Mitchel

OH 08 (DEM): Mort Meier, Nicholas Vonstein

OH 08 (GOP): Rep. John Boehner

OH 09 (DEM): Rep. Marcy Kaptur

OH 09 (GOP): Bradley Leavitt

OH 10 (DEM): Rep. Dennis Kucinich, Joe Cimperman, Thomas O’Grady, Rosemary Palmer, Barbara Ferris

OH 10 (GOP): Jim Trakas, Jason Werner

OH 11 (DEM): Rep. Stephanie Tubbs-Jones

OH 11 (GOP): Thomas Pekarek, Bob Saffold

OH 12 (DEM): Aaron Dagres, Marc Fagin, Russ Goodwin, David Robinson

OH 12 (GOP): Rep. Pat Tiberi, David Ryon

OH 13 (DEM): Rep. Betty Sutton

OH 13 (GOP): Frank Chestney, Frances Kalapodis, David Potter

OH 14 (DEM): Bill O’Neill, Dale Blanchard, John Greene

OH 14 (GOP): Rep. Steve LaTourette

OH 15 (DEM): Mary Jo Kilroy

OH 15 (GOP): Ralph Applegate, Charles Chope, John Diamond, Steve Stivers, Robert Wagner

OH 16 (DEM): John Boccieri, Mary Cirelli

OH 16 (GOP): Matt Miller, Paul Schiffer, Kirk Schuring

OH 17 (DEM): Rep. Tim Ryan

OH 17 (GOP): Duane Grassell

OH 18 (DEM): Rep. Zack Space, Mark Pitrone

OH 18 (GOP): Beau Bromberg, Fred Dailey, Jeannette Moll, Paul Phillips

Now, here is my analysis of the PRIMARY ELECTIONS:

OH-02: This might be the most intriguing primary of them all on March 4th. The Democratic side of the equation might be more competitive than you think, as Steve Black has already raised well into six figures in his attempt to deny Vic Wulsin a second shot at the brass ring. Wulsin has never stopped running from her solid 2006 run, which saw her come within two points of the incumbent.

The incumbent might have been saved by seeing (yet again!) two legitimate Republicans file against her. Both Brinkman and Heimlich have records as elected officials, and both will bring resources to the table. Watch Schmidt escape again with a 35-30-30-5 win.

OH-07: What was thought to be a coronation for state Senator Steve Austria has grown more complicated as time has gone on. Late in the game, former state Representative Ron Hood decided to make the show. Both Harkins and Mitchel have the threat of being serious candidates. Austria is still the bettors’ favorite, and looks good for the general as well.

OH-10: Time will tell if Dennis Kucinich’s vanity run for President will cost him back home. Like Schmidt, he probably benefits from the fact that there is a multi-candidate field in front of him. Cimperman is a city councilman in Cleveland, O’Grady is the mayor of North Olmstead, Palmer has generated some attention, and Ferris has run before (only getting 24% of the vote in 2006). Republicans probably are running one of their strongest candidates in former state rep. Jim Trakas, but this is a district where Kucinich’s closest race (in 2004) held him to a mere 60%.

OH-16: At the last second, Democratic plans to have an uncomplicated run here were foiled when a longtime city official (Mary Cirelli) got into the race against party-anointed state senator John Boccieri. It is questionable whether the sixty-something Cirelli will present a serious threat to Boccieri, who has the blessing of many county party officials, as well as a formidable war chest. On the GOP side, it is a free-for-all between Matt Miller (who ran tough against the retiring Ralph Regula in 2006), state senator Kirk Schuring, and right-wing talk radio host Paul Schiffer.

THE GENERAL ELECTION IN OHIO:

There are several seats to watch in Ohio. The good news: they are pretty much entirely in Republican hands.

Of the three Democratic freshmen in Ohio, only Zack Space is facing opposition that anyone would take seriously. Even in this race (OH-18), no one sees this as a toss-up. Space wiping the floor with Joy Padgett probably scared off higher-caliber competition. Meanwhile, both Charlie Wilson (OH-06) and Betty Sutton (OH-13) face nominal opposition.

Meanwhile, there are first-tier GOP targets all over the map. Principal among these are the pair of open seats in central Ohio: the Columbus-based 15th district and the Canton-based 16th district. Both are swing districts (the 15th a bit more favorable to Dems). Mary Jo Kilroy, after nearly disposing of Deb Pryce in 2006, did not draw a primary challenger. Now she lies in wait, presumably to face GOP recruit Steve Stivers, a state senator who got in after initially demurring from a challenge. Over in the 16th district, Boccieri is the best candidate the Dems could have hoped for, and he will likely benefit from a brutal GOP primary. Expect Schuring to emerge from it. Also expect at least one of these seats to go Democratic in November.

There are also a number of GOP incumbents being looked at. The Cincy metro area sees the two most prized targets in third-term Rep. Jean Schmidt (OH-02) and class of 1994 Rep. Steve Chabot (OH-01). Democrats think that they might have finally found the right candidate for Chabot in the person of state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Of course, they thought that when Roxanne Qualls ran in 1998, and they also thought that when Cranley ran here in 2006. Jean Schmidt, meanwhile, must first survive the GOP primary. If she does (and she is the betting favorite), she will square off most likely in a 2006 rematch with Vic Wulsin. It was one of the closest races in America in 2006, and would promise to be so again, especially since the DCCC is unlikely to be a late arrival in the race this time around.

Other possible races to watch: Judge Bill O’Neill making a run at another Class of 1994 incumbent, Republican Steve LaTourette (OH-14). Democrat Jane Mitakides, who ran a well-funded race in the Dayton-based 3rd district, will take another swing at Republican Rep. Mike Turner. In the Columbus-based 12th district, Pat Tiberi will never be able to rest TOO easy, but he will be a favorite over the Democrats.

What follows is Congressional candidate Benjamin Lodmell’s response to incumbent Congressman Jo Bonner(AL-01-R). We might just have a race on our hands but Lodmell needs your support.

WHEN IS A JOKE NOT A JOKE?

Want to hear a bad joke? Bush’s man in Mobile, Jo Bonner, claims he has represented Alabama’s 1st Congressional District for going on six years. Well, if that’s a joke, the joke’s on us. Bonner hasn’t represented anything but the special interests that fill and re-fill his campaign war chest whenever voting season rolls around. Like now. But that’s only part of the joke. The joke really gets going when you read Jo’s year-end tout sheet of the Bush-Bonner gang’s accomplishments during the first session of the 110th Congress.

Believe it or not, Jo Bonner has the unmitigated gall to begin his year-end sermon from Mount Washington by saying, “Congress ended the year successfully.” To write that kind of drivel, Jo must be eating too many side orders of grits, and they’ve gone to his head! If this past year was so successful, Jo, why does the latest poll by George Washington University show that 61% of the likely voters in the next election disapprove of the job performance of the Republicans in Congress? I guess they haven’t read your year-end review.

Speaking of which, Jo, why don’t you try explaining how you and your ideologically-driven brethren have the audacity to take credit for getting “$70 billion in funding without strings for Iraq and Afghanistan” and “full funding of S-CHIP through the coming year”? You’ve got to be kidding; the Congress had no choice. The President vetoed so many prior bills on these two issues alone, he had to refill his pen with ink.

What you didn’t say about the “no strings” funding for our troops is that the American people still have no exit strategy for a war where are troops keep dying and we have no hope of winning. As for the S-CHIP legislation, what you, after repeated Presidential vetoes, accomplished, despite all the self-congratulations, was to deny healthcare coverage to 10 million uninsured children. Good going Jo. As for the energy bill you took credit for passing, nowhere in your commentary do you mention that you once again came to the aid of your oil and gas industry buddies by cutting out of the bill a roll back of $13.5 billion in tax breaks that could have been used to extend tax credits for wind, solar, and biomass power, as well as hybrid cars.

But Jo is right about one thing in his year-end self-promoting report. As he says, “American families are feeling the pinch of higher costs of living – record high gas prices, heating costs, health care costs, and education expenses.” He’s right about that. And if anyone believes he is really going to try to help working families cope with the tough economic times that are coming, the joke will be on them again.

Texas is on track to pick up four House seats after the next round of Congressional re-apportionment. Matt Glazer explains what this means:

In any case, these 4 seats could mean big gains for us if Democrats have a say in how the new map is drawn.

It is easy to see a situation where Republicans gerrymander a map and solidify some Democratic seats but at the same time make current seats either more competitive or flip[] them completely.  This is the exactly what Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and David Dewhurst did in 2003 with their unconstitutional map.

There is one way to have a say in the process and prevent another purely partisan map.  A constitutional amendment in 1951 established the redistricting process and established the Legislative Redistricting Board (LRB).  The board is composed of the lieutenant governor, speaker of the house, attorney general, comptroller, and land commissioner.  Let’s go through this really quickly; David Dewhurst, Tom Craddick, Greg Abbott, Susan Combs, and Jerry Patterson will determine the fate of these 4 new seats along with the 32.

All five of these folks are Republicans. Without a voice at the table, we’ll surely get railroaded once more. But there is hope:

We currently have 71 Democrats in the state house.  If we can win back the House this cycle (pick up 5 more seats) we will have taken 1 of the 5 seats on the redistricting board.

Indeed, the TX House situation is already vastly improved from just a few years ago – it was 88-62 in the GOP’s favor after 2002. What’s more, the momentum is ours – we just won a special election last month in heavily Republican territory. Taking the House back this cycle would undoubtedly be very energizing. Should we fall just short, though, we’ll still have a second bite in 2010. That’s also when Texas will have statewide elections once more, which will give us an opportunity to contest some of the other offices which get a seat on the redistricting commission.

Nonetheless, while several other key legislatures (such as the NY Senate) are also on the verge of changing hands in our favor, I think Texas House may be the number one body to keep our eyes on this year.

UPDATE: Read this important comment from DCal, which clarifies the LRB’s role in redistricting. Bottom line: It’s not involved in federal map-drawing – just state. Still, federal redistricting plans must be approved by the legislature, which means the TX House will have a say along with the Senate and Governor. So taking it back is probably even more crucial than I originally understood it to be.

From the Clarion Ledger:

Former U.S. Rep. Ronnie Shows told The Associated Press on Saturday that he will run for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott.

Shows, a Democrat who was ousted from Congress by Republican Rep. Chip Pickering in 2002 after Mississippi lost a House seat, joins former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove and U.S. Rep. Roger Wicker in the race.

Shows said Pickering’s decision not to run for the Senate seat pushed him into re-entering political life.

“It just opened the door for me that I didn’t think was there before,” Shows said. “I think this opportunity doesn’t come by very often – to have an open Senate seat – and it’s something I feel ready to do. And I think I can win.”

As you might know, Shows lost his seat due to redistricting. I have to say that I wish he’d seek his old seat again, given that Pickering is now retiring.

Of greater concern, though, is the fact that the MS-Sen-B special will be a Louisiana-style jungle election (ie, all candidates run together in a single race, with, I believe, the top two vote-getters going into a runoff if a certain threshold is not met by the first-place finisher). With two Dems vs. one Republican, it seems like this race just got a lot harder to pull off. At the very least, we now certainly can’t win in the first round. We need to hope that either a bunch more Republicans get in, or that Shows or Musgrove changes his mind.

Lordy, they really are dropping like flies, aren’t they?  It looks like we can probably add GOP Rep. Richard Baker of Louisiana to the list of Republican retirements in the near future.  The Politico has the round-up:

Republican Rep. Richard Baker of Louisiana has filed paperwork with the House Clerk to speak with an investment industry lobby shop, according to WAFB television, signaling yet another senior Republican may soon call it quits.

Baker told the Louisiana TV station that he has notified the Clerk he would like to pursue a post as the head of the Managed Funds Association, which represents hedge funds and other “non-traditional” investment industries.

Baker, a senior member of the House Financial Services Committee, came up short last year in his bid to be the top Republican on that panel. Lobbyists for the finance sector have been hinting the senior Republican was looking for a K Street job, but this is the first hard evidence he’s considering a private sector post.

He told the Advocate newspaper in Baton Rouge that he could resign his post within a month if he accepts the offer, setting up the prospect that Republicans would have to defend yet another seat in a special election. He told both news outlets that he remains undecided about the post, but one Republican lobbyist suggested he is in the running for other jobs as well.

Democrats are looking to recruit state Rep. Don Cazayoux, who recently lost a bid for the Speaker of the state House, to contest this R+6.5 seat.

It’s also worth mentioning that Baton Rouge, the population anchor of this district, had a pretty sizable number of Katrina evacuees from New Orleans, possibly making the district’s red shade a fair bit lighter.

Three open seats in Louisiana this year?  A wild scenario, and one that might even help Sen. Mary Landrieu by making her seniority seem all the more crucial.

Best comment ever on SSP?

SSP is my favorite blog because their primary open thread has no comments :-).

I love it. This open thread is a primary-free zone.

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Notable User Diaries

• Continuing a series, Progressive America brings us part two of a look at the Florida state Senate.
• The indefatigable plf515 calculates the odds of House seat turnovers in three states (so far): Ohio, Texas & Illinois.
• Robert.Harding tells us about Bob Kerrey’s endorsement of NY-26 hopeful Jon Powers. He also analyzes the irritating news that nutter millionaire Jack Davis  (D?) might try running a third time. Gah.
• And finally, in a diary that warms my nerdly heart, Doug_Tuttle asks us to compare the presidential candidates with the comic book characters they most resemble. X Stryker has an awesome comment in reply running down every single candidate, with some hilarious matchups.

Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is making it official — he will run for the Senate against his old roommate Roger Wicker:

Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove confirmed to The Associated Press on Friday that he will run for the U.S. Senate.

Musgrove plans to hold a series of news conferences Monday in Tupelo, Jackson, Hattiesburg and Gulfport.

“I’ll be announcing, yes,” Musgrove told the AP in a telephone interview from his law office in Madison County.

With Mike Moore off the table, Musgrove is probably the next best bet, and the early polls that we’ve all seen confirm that he still has a significant level of support in the state.  Will it hold up in a federal election?

This will be an interesting race to watch — whenever it’s held.