Month: January 2008

Another day, another big endorsement for Jon Powers.

Today, the Powers campaign announced that former U.S. Senator and 9/11 Commission member Bob Kerrey has endorsed Jon Powers in his race for Tom Reynolds’ seat in New York’s 26th congressional district:

“With the utter lack of accountability we’ve seen in Washington these past several years, Congress desperately needs more leaders like Jon Powers, “Kerrey said. “I’m endorsing Jon Powers for Congress because he leads by example, calls things as he sees them, and is dedicated to getting things done.”

“Throughout his exemplary service in the US Army, Jon Powers was recognized for his ability to solve difficult problems and achieve real results,” said Kerrey. “These days, it’s disappointingly rare when any of us can say the same of Congress or the federal government.”

“Especially in times like these, Washington needs – and New York will benefit from – Jon Powers’ refreshing style of leadership-by-example.”

More on the flip.

This comes nearly the same day as a story about Jack Davis was in the Buffalo News. Apparently, Davis is seriously considering a third run for the 26th district:

While many observers had expected Davis to bypass a third run at Reynolds, his consideration of another campaign looms as a major development in an increasingly crowded race. Iraq War veteran Jonathan Powers has been organizing a Democratic candidacy since early 2007, while Buffalo attorney Alice J. Kryzan has also been raising money and solidifying support.

Davis said he is aware of his two possible opponents in a Democratic primary but said he has no doubt that his considerable wealth would enable him to defeat both.

“If he wants to run a primary against me, it’s a free country,” he said of Powers. “But I don’t think I will have any trouble beating him.”

A few things here.

(1) Davis is essentially saying that he can beat Powers and Alice Kryzan with his pocketbook. This is true: He does have more money than these two. But his only problem is that he doesn’t campaign. In talking with members of the Davis team in 2006, Davis refused to get out and work. He didn’t go door-to-door and he certainly didn’t visit the rural counties.

(2) Anyone who knows anything about Western New York politics knows that Len Lenihan is self-serving and only cares about one thing: Len Lenihan. He made quite a reputation for himself with the rural counties in WNY when he (and the Erie County Republican chair) made the decision on who would run for State Supreme Court in the 8th Judicial District. The problem? There’s eight counties in this JD. So one county (one large county, I might add) made the decision for the other seven.

(3) Over the next seven days, I will have seen Jon Powers more than I ever saw Jack Davis (or Alice Kryzan for that matter). Jon is accessible. Jack Davis was never that way. I made three trips to Davis’s factory in Akron, NY and never saw him once. To be specific, I’ve never met Jack Davis.

Jon has worked hard – very hard. This is how I view the race:

Powers: He’s accessible and he’s truly campaigning. He’s raising money locally and nationally and he reaches out to the rural counties. He didn’t get the rural endorsements from Genesee and Orleans counties because he just sat in Erie County for the past six months. He got those endorsements because he visits regularly. He will be at a local Powers for Congress house party and I will be attending a fundraiser for Jon next Wednesday.

Kryzan: Two things that really turned me off with Kryzan from the start. She defended Hooker/Occidental Chemical in the “Love Canal” debacle and she contributed $250 to Tom Reynolds in 2000. Game. Set. Match.

Davis: Okay, he has a lot of money… but that’s all he’s got. He’s not a progressive. The story is that he turned Democrat because he was angry after not being able to meet Dick Cheney. I don’t know how true that is, but it would fit. He is, at best, a moderate Democrat. What he really is is a disgruntled Republican just looking to run on the other party’s line.

The 26th will be a madhouse. I thought we were supposed to be putting the best candidate forward to beat Tom Reynolds?  

We here at SSP don’t really discuss Presidential politics much, and that suits us fine.  But hey, an election is an election, and the results are streaming in from Iowa right now.

In keeping with our down-ballot theme, here’s an interesting question for you: Which GOP Presidential candidate would inspire the most Congressional retirements?  And who could keep more hands on deck?  For instance, would Huckabee’s presence on the ballot rile the feathers of a few too many GOP insiders?

Feel free to discuss the results in this thread.

Congressman Lantos has released a statement on his house page found here http://www.lantos.house.gov/in… I wish him a speedy recovery and thank him for 27 years of service. Anybody know of any Dems in the 12th with aspirations for higher office?

Before tonight’s caucus, when everything becomes so much more serious, let’s have some fun with the candidates, comparing them to super heroes and villains.  From comics, or movies, whatever, here are a few of mine.  Ron Paul: Mister Mxyzptlk.  Hero, villain, space imp?  What the hell is he?  This could also go for kucinich.  Fred Thompson: the penguin.  Not that much of villain (except the Danny Devito version) kind of bland, and dull.  Guiliani/clinton: lex luthor.  Scheming, conniving, manipulating, face of “the man.”

(I’m not too embarrassed to admit that I’ve never heard of this GOP crumb-bum until today. – promoted by James L.)

Being in the minority sucks. GOP Rep. John Peterson of PA-05 is expected to announce his retirement today.

Two Republican officials with knowledge of the decision said Peterson was expected to announce his retirement. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they did not want to pre-empt the congressman’s announcement, which was anticipated later Thursday.

No indication yet why he’s leaving exactly, but he’ll turn 70 this year.

Peterson was re-elected in 2006 with 60% of the vote, underpolling Bush by less than 1%. This is rough, red country to be certain (R+10), but it does include State College.

2006 challenger Don Hilliard says in a comment on Race Tracker Wiki:

Please note my name is Don Hilliard. I ran against Congressman Peterson in 2006 and intend to do so again in 2008. Please add me to your site. Thank you.

UPDATE: Wikipedia on Peterson’s environmental record:

Peterson received the lowest possible environmental rating from the nonpartisan League of Conservation Voters in 2006, casting what the group qualified as anti-environment votes on twelve out of twelve critical issues ranging from oil drilling offshore and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, salvage logging and logging roads, and the Clean Water Act, to the Toxics Release Inventory program and low-income energy assistance. The conservative environmental group Republicans for Environmental Protection singled out Peterson as “Worst in the House in 2006” on environmental issues. In addition to assigning the representative a score of zero for his voting record, REP censured him individually for “efforts to remove the moratorium on Outer Continental Shelf gas drilling through the Interior appropriations process.” According to the League of Conservation Voters, “natural gas drilling can create massive amounts of water and air pollution and can leave open the possibility of oil spills, which would be toxic for a wide variety of marine and coastal life.”

Good riddance!

UPDATE #2: It’s official.

Peterson said in a statement released by his office that he desires to spend more time with his family in Pleasantville. He said his retirement is effective at the end of his current term.

Wow, it’s like Republicans all over congress are suddenly remembering how much they love their families! I guess being on the Appropriations committee isn’t as fun when you’re in the minority.

Your thoughts?

[Diary edited for copyright concerns. – Mgmt.]

Some words about the new open seat in Mississippi from Jackson’s Clarion-Ledger newspaper…

Outgoing state Rep. Jamie Franks said it’s unlikely he will run against state Rep. Steve Holland for the congressional seat Roger Wicker’s recent appointment to the U.S. Senate left vacant.

“And I don’t believe he would run against me either,” Franks said of his friend and fellow representative. Both are Democrats from north Mississippi.

Wicker was appointed Monday by Gov. Haley Barbour to the Senate seat Trent Lott vacated. A special election is to be called within 60 days, Barbour said, then held within 60 days after that.

—–

State Rep. Steve Holland (D) is a former Republican, folks.  He used to work for Congressman Thad Cochran (R-MS) back in his younger days.  He once said that he didn’t leave the Republican Party; it left him.  Now that he’s had time to wise up and become a Democrat, Holland has made his way into the ranks of power in the MS Legislature.  He’s a committee chairman and close confidant of House Speaker Billy McCoy (D).  I don’t see why Holland would give up such power to move to Washington.  Jamie Franks will soon be a former member of the House.  It’s not like he has much to do these days anyway… other than be a lawyer.

Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope you all had a relaxing holiday season.  I’m feeling rested and refreshed, so let’s take a look at some of the recent developments in down-ballot races across the country.

• NY-19: Strike three!  After uber-wealthy self-funding Republican Andrew Saul pulled the plug on his congressional campaign against freshman Rep. John Hall after some shady ethics violations came to the fore, some Republicans hoped that former state assemblyman Howard Mills would be an adequate replacement.  Too bad he said no in late November.  The next great hope for the NRCC, assemblyman Greg Ball, announced yesterday that he won’t run, either.  This leaves the GOP’s ball in the hands of Iraq war vet and wingnut Kieran Lalor.  Will the Republicans really end up without a top flight challenger in a district that they held for 14 straight years before Hall’s win?

  Perhaps now is a good time to revisit Ball’s sage words from November, when the GOP line on the NY-19 ballot was his for the taking:

  Ball is concerned about the electoral outlook for the GOP in the 2008 election cycle.

  “George Bush has not only hurt the Republican Party, he’s left the nation without leadership,” the Republican state lawmaker said. “It’s going to be a tough year to run as a Republican at the national level.”





• IN-02: Speaking of the GOP’s bare shelf, a whole year has passed and Indiana Republicans are still lacking a challenger to frosh Rep. Joe Donnelly.  Has NRCC Chair Tom Cole really gone through his entire Rolodex of ethically-challenged Republican millionaires who live in this R+4.3 district? (H/T: Blue Indiana)




• Kentucky: The Lexington Herald-Leader’s blog has a thorough run-down of all the upcoming down-ballot special elections in the weeks and months ahead in Kentucky.  The first two happen next week.




• NM-Sen: New Mexico’s very own Dr. Doolittle, political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has been talking to “the alligators” again, and this time they’re telling him that Steve Pearce outraised Heather Wilson in the fourth quarter by a margin of $450,000 to $350,000.  Seems kinda low-ish to me, but I suppose that’s probably the end result of having the state’s GOP money divided between two of their heaviest hitters.




• NM-02: State Rep. Joe Cervantes (D) has dropped out of the race to replace Steve Pearce, leaving former Lea County Commissioner and oilman Harry Teague and Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley as the only top-tier candidates left in the Dem field.  Monahan thinks the news will favor Teague, a conservative Democrat, but McCamley’s fundraising has been solid and he’s been running for quite some time.  It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out.




• MN-03: MNPublius is hearing rumors that GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement is definite.  Let’s hope that they’re true!




• IL-18: Aaron Schock, a 14-year old GOP state legislator and nuclear proliferation advocate, is doing his best to avoid any foreign policy debates with his primary opponents for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ray LaHood.  I guess Schock has now fully realized that his “ideas” of selling nukes to Taiwan don’t play so well outside of his local college Republican chapter.




• IN-07: State Rep. Joe Orentlicher is the first to file for the Democratic nomination to succeed the late Rep. Julia Carson.  Carson’s grandson, newly-elected Indianapolis city councilor will make his decision soon, but it’s looking like he’ll throw his hat into the ring.  It’s also looking like the special election to fill the seat may be pushed back until May.

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX and OH, which having filing deadlines coming up.  Today, Illinois, where filing is already closed.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

Illinois has 19 congressional districts

10 are held by Democrats, 9 by Republicans (sort of odd in a state that has, arguably, the most liberal senate delegation).

The 10 held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?       rating

1        D+35    .07         Rush            Yes                Safe

2        D+35    .10         Jackson         No

3        D+10    .43         Lipinski        Yes (and primary!) Fairly              

                                                               safe

4        D+31    .29         Gutierrez       No

5        D+18    .37         Emmanuel        No

7        D+35    .07         Davis           No (primary)        Safe

8        R+5     .61         Bean            Yes (and primary)   Vul.

9        D+20    .18         Schakowsky      Yes                 Safe

12       D+5     .44         Costello        Yes                 moderate

17       D+5     .56         Hare            No

notes: Lipinski deserves to be primaried

The only race that is at all likely to go Repub is Bean, in IL08.

The 17th might have changed, but there’s no challenger.

All nine Republican seats are being contested (woot! woot!) some details

IL-06 R+2.9 .53

The 6th is the western suburbs of Chicago

Roskam was first elected in 2006, replacing the odious Henry Hyde.  He won a close (5,000 votes) and very expensive (combined spending $8 million) race against Tammy Duckworth.

There are two challengers: Jill Morgenthaler and Stan Jagla

IL-10 D+4 .67

The 10th is the north shore suburbs of Chicago, a very high income area (median income = $71,663).

Kirk, first elected in 2000, is one of the most moderate Republicans in the House. In 2006 he beat Dan Seals 53%-47%, outspending Seals 2-1.

Seals is running again, as is Jay Footlik , although Seals looks like the favorite.  Seals is also raking in the money, raising $300K in the third quarter.

IL-11 R+1.1 .65

The 11th is shaped like a T, with its base in Bloomington and Normal, and its upper right bar ending in Joliet and Kankakee.

Weller, first elected in 1994, is retiring.  In 2006, he won 55-45 against John Pavich, whom he outspent more than 3-1.  

The Democratic candidate is Debbie Halvorsen , and there are three Republicans in a primary; Halvorsen is the majority leader of the state senate.  This is winnable! Bush actually got less than 50% in 2000 (adding Gore and Nader); Weller did much better, but he was an incumbent with a big war-chest.  And his margins keep getting smaller: 2002 – 64%, 2004 – 59%, 2006 – 55%.

IL-13 R+5 .67

The 13th is the western suburbs of Chicago.

Biggert, first elected in 1998, looks increasingly vulnerable. In 2002 she got 70%, 2004 – 65%, and 2006 – 58%.  In 2006, she outspent challenger Joseph Shannon by more than 4-1. This year she faces a primary and then

Scott Halper .

IL-14 R+5 .68

The 14th runs almost the entire width of IL, from the far western suburbs of Chicago almost to the IA border.

Hastert, the former speaker, has resigned! Bye Dennis! We won’t miss you! Say hi to the family!

There are primaries in both parties, but the Democratic favorite has to be John Laesch , who got 40% against Hastert in 2006, even though Hastert raised $5 million to Laesch’s $300,000.  The primary is Feb 5th, and then a special election March 8. Laesch is also a kossack

IL-15 R+6 .62

The 15th is the eastern middle of IL, centering on Champaign and Urbana.

Johnson, first elected in 2000, has managed to win relatively easily without massive spending, twice beating David Gill.

This year, the challenger is Steve Cox.

IL-16 R+4 .67

The 16th is the northern edge of IL, all along the border with WI and IA.

Manzullo, first elected in 1992, has not been seriously challenged.

The challenger is Robert Aboud , a nuclear engineer and businessman.

IL-18 R+5.5 .66

The 18th is more or less in the middle of the state, including Springfield and Jacksonville.

LaHood, first elected in 1994, is retiring.

It’s not clear who, if anyone, is challenging from the Democratic side…local help, please?

IL-19 R+8 .76

The 19th is most of the southern end of IL, including Centralia

Shimkus, first elected in 1996, has not been seriously challenged since, winning easily without raising huge amounts, although in 2006, Danny Stover got 39% with only $166,000.

There are several Democratic challengers (see the link).

Summary

Only one Democratic seat looks in danger.

Six Republican seats do.

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are running and not running; and where the Republicans are running and not running (I am not going to look in detail at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU, and informed by the great Race Tracker Wiki (links throughout).

crossposted to dailyKos

The next two states to have filing deadlines are OH and TX. Today, I am doing TX.  I did OH on Dec 30, more to follow (and I will go back and do the states that already passed their filing deadlines).

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics

One note TX has been redrawn again, and my model numbers are for the old districts.  No way to fix this that I know of.

Texas has 32 Congressional House districts. 13 are held by Democrats of which 11 have officially filed as follows:



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?    rating

TX-09    D+21     3        Green              Yes         safe Dem.

TX-15    D+ 3    37        Hinojosa            No  

TX-16    D+9     29        Reyes               No  

TX-17    R+18    55        Edwards             No

TX-22    R+15    43        Lampson            Yes       fairly safe, rerun

TX-23    R+4     47        Rodriguez          unclear

TX-25    D+1     49        Doggett             No

TX-27    R+1     35        Ortiz               No

TX-28    R+1     42        Cuellar             No

TX-29    D+8     24        Green              Yes        safe, rerun

TX-30   D+26     12        Johnson             No



The following 2 Democratic incumbents haven’t filed yet but are expected to do so.



TX-18   D+23      8        Lee                No  

TX-20   D+8      25        Gonzalez           No

So, there are confirmed challengers in only 3 Democratic districts, all of which look pretty safe, and two of which are re-runs of 2006.

I give more details on the following, 19 Republican held seats; first the 10 of these have filed candidates:

TX03 R+17  .42.  

This district is northern Dallas, and also Plano and Garland.

Sam Johnson was first elected in 1991.  He has had no close races since his first one.  Ron Minkow and Thomas Daley are running against him, and a couple other people might, but this has to be called a longshot.

TX-06  R+15, .47

This district spreads southeastward from the western part of Ft Worth, running about 150 miles through Corsicanna and Waxahachie

Joe Barton, first elected in 1984, may be slightly mroe vulnerable than his relatively easy wins show.  In 2006, David Harris got 37% of the vote with only $27,000 (he was out-funded almost 100-1!)

Steve Bush is running as a Democrat, hey, his name is Bush! That’s probably going to convince a couple Republicans….. well… maybe.

TX-07  R+16  .45

The 7th runs roughly northwestward from the western suburbs of Houston, but it’s shaped sort of like a Z, so it’s hard to describe.

John Culbertson was first elected in 2000.  In 2004, he got just about as many votes as Bush, despite out-raising his opponent 30-1.  In 2006, Jim Henley raised about $122,000 and got 38%.  

James Henley is running again, as is Michael Skelly.  

TX-10  R+13, .57

The 10th runs from eastern Austin to western Houston.  

Michael McCool was first elected in 2004.  In 2006, Ted Ankrum got 40% of the vote with only $55,000 in funding.  

In 2008, there are at least two challenger: Larry Joe Doherty and Dan Grant, and each seems to have already raised more than that.

TX-12  R+14 .49

The 12th is a large district to the west and northwest of Ft. Worth

Granger was first elected in 1996.  None of her races have been close, and Granger did better than Bush in 2004.

Tracey Smith is running in 2008.

TX-13 R+18 .52

The 13th is 40,000 sq miles mostly along the borders with OK and NM, including Amarillo.

Thornberry was first elected in 1994, and has not been seriously challenged. In 2006, Roger Waun got 23% of the vote, with only $27,000.  

Waun is running again

TX-19 R+25, .48

The 19th is shaped sort of like a W, or maybe a U with a hook.  It runs from the NM border to the middle of TX, including Lubbock and Abilene.

Neugebauer was first elected in 2003.  In 2004 he beat Stenholm 58-40, in a fairly equally funded race.

Dwight Fullingim is running in 2008, and a couple others might run, as well.

TX-26  R+12 .45

The 26th is a narrow strip running north from the Dallas-FtWorth suburbs to the OK border, widening around the town of Denton.

Burgess was elected in 2002.  His majorities have been decreasing:

2002 – 75%, 2004 – 66%, 2006 – 60%, all against opponents with almost no funds (in 2006, his opponent (Barnwell) got 37% with only $16,000).  

Ken Leach is running against Burgess in 2008.  

TX-31 R+15 0.49

The 31st runs northwest from the northern suburbs of Austin.

Carter, first elected in 2002, was in a relatively close race in 2006; he won 58-39 against Mary Beth Harrell, who was outspent more than 4-1.

In 2008, the challenger is Brian Ruiz.

TX-32 R+11 .34

The 32nd is a ridiculously shaped district that includes the area between Ft. Worth and Dallas, and also North Dallas and University Park, and extends out to Ricardson.

Sessions, first elected in 1996, was in one of the most expensive races in 2004 (each candidate spent around $4.5 million) – he won, 54-44, doing considerably worse than Bush. In 2006, Will Pryor did almost as well, getting 41% while raising only half a million.

In 2008 Steve Love is running, as is Eric Roberson.

4 further districts have confirmed candidates that are yet to file officially:

TX-04  R+17  .70

The 4th is the northeast corner of TX, mostly bordering OK and AR. (It’s one of the few districts in TX that is pretty much a rectangle!)

Hall was first elected in 1980, and he’s getting old (he will turn 85 in May).  He’s won easily against underfunded opponents, but in 2006, Glenn Melancon got 33% of the vote with only 64,000.  

Melancon is running again, but first Hall has to survive a primary.

TX-08 R+20 .74

The 8th is on the eastern part of TX, right around where TX is widest. It borders LA.

Brady was first elected in 1996.  He has won easily, the last two times against Jim Wright (Wright got 30% in 2004 and 33% in 2006, both times with very little money).

Wright is running again.

TX-11 R+25 .54

The 11th runs from the eastern suburbs of Austin to the NM border, including Odessa, Midland, and San Angelo.

Conaway was first elected in 2004, and was unopposed in 2006.

Floyd Crider is running in 2008.

TX-24 R+15 .43

The 24th is a bizarrely shaped district, mostly in between Dallas and Ft. Worth.

Marchant, first elected in 2004, has won easily against Gary Page (twice), although Page got very little money.

This year, Tom Love is running

And two further districts have unconfirmed candidates:

TX-05 R+16 .57

The fifth is another bizarre district….it sort of looks like California, with Nevada on the side.  It includes both Palestine and Athens….and stretches southeast from Dallas

Hensarling was first elected in 2002 and has won easily against almost unfunded opposition; in 2006, Thompson got 36% with only $20,000

TX-21 R+13 .58

The 21st is yet another oddly shaped district, mostly to the north and west of San Antonio.

Smith was first elected in 1986.  He has won easily.  This district was redrawn for 2006.

That leaves 3 districts with no candidate!

And here they are:

TX-01 R+17 .59

The first is along the eastern edge of TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AK.

Gohmert was first elected in 2004. He has won easily, but no more easily than a lot of other TX Repubs.  I can’t say it’s likely we would win, but I can’t see why we aren’t challenging.

TX-02 R+12 .47

The 2nd is another bizarrely shaped district; most of the people live in or near Beaumont.

Poe was first elected in 2004.  In the nebulous world of TX redistricting, his opponent in 2004 was Nick Lampson, who is now the rep. from the 22nd, which doesn’t even border the current 2nd.

Conrad Allen announced that he was forming an exploratory committee, set up a campaign website (now defunct) and disappeared off the face of the earth.

TX-14 R+14 .56

The 14th may be the most bizarre of all the bizarrely shaped districts.  It runs along the gulf of Mexico, mostly south of Galveston, but it’s sort of interrupted by a bunch of other districts.

This bizarrely shaped district has a bizarre rep, even for Texas: Ron Paul.

We had a candidate then he switched parties!

summary

Well….



Currently       Total      Confirmed challenger     %

Democratic        13               3               24

Republican        19              14               74