Month: March 2008

From a Tarrance Group (R) poll for Jean Schmidt, conducted 3/11-12 (likely voters, no trendlines):

Vic Wulsin (D): 33%

Jean Schmidt (R-inc.): 51%

MoE: ±4.9%

So, how would you rate this race on the SSP scale?

You know times are rough for the GOP when they have to plow through twenty names in order to find a replacement candidate for the seat of retiring Rep. Jerry Weller:

Chicago-area concrete contractor Martin Ozinga (R) is expected to be added next month to the November ballot to succeed Illinois GOP Rep. Jerry Weller, a Republican operative in the Land of Lincoln told Roll Call on Monday.

For weeks, Republican county chairmen in Weller’s central Illinois district have worked their way through a list of 20 potential replacements for New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, who abruptly dropped out of the race to replace Weller a month ago.

Ouch!

(From the diaries – promoted by DavidNYC)

I grew up in Miami, a region dominated by Cuba politics, so I have some knowledge of how significant Joe Garcia’s candidacy is in South Florida.  It is a direct challenge to the pay-to-play foreign policy apparatus of the United States, one where sugar interests and right-wing politics determines that we should have a pointless embargo against the Cuban people.  But today I want to announce that we have another significant nomination for the Blue Majority page: Leslie Byrne for Virginia’s 11th district.

Republican Tom Davis is retiring this year, and the district is a good pickup opportunity.  Jim Webb won the district 55%-44% in 2006, Tim Kaine won the district 56%-42% in 2005, while John Kerry lost it by 50-49% in 2004.  It is turning sharply blue; Tom Davis’s wife, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, lost to Democrat Chap Petersen by 11 points in a race for state Senate.

With such a ripe pickup opportunity, the primary is ferocious.  The Washington Post frames the primary fight within the Democratic party as follows:

Leading the pack are two of the state Democrats’ biggest personalities: Leslie L. Byrne, a former congresswoman, state delegate and state senator with deep roots in the party’s progressive wing, and Gerald E. Connolly, a Latin-quoting, pro-business Democrat who, as chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, represents one in seven Virginians.

Byrne is the long-time progressive movement candidate facing off against developer ally Gerry Connolly.  Byrne’s progressive credentials are first-rate; a liberal member of Congress from 1992-1994, she was an opponent of the war in Iraq from day one, endorsed Howard Dean in 2004, is a favorite of the local netroots, and endorsed fellow war opponent Jim Webb early on.  That endorsement was critical and provided Webb’s campaign with an early boost of legitimacy in his primary against lobbyist Harris Miller, who supported the war in Iraq and thought Bush’s tax cuts were “a great idea”.  Webb defeated racist Republican George Allen narrowly because he presented a clear choice on economic inequality and the war in Iraq, and has turned around and endorsed Byrne’s campaign.

Leslie Byrne has also been endorsed by Raising Kaine, Not Larry Sabato, Anonymous Is a Woman, 750 Volts, and Bryan Scrafford.  To contextualize these endorsements, understand that the Virginia blogs are probably one of the most sophisticated group of progressive bloggers in the country; they helped put Tim Kaine and Jim Webb into office, and the state in play for 2008.

This is a nasty fight, with Connolly up by 22 in his polling and Byrne up by 10 in her polling.  Connolly is generally seen as heavily tied to developers (see all the coming soon on his campaign’s endorsement list), while Byrne’s endorsement list is pretty impressive and shows her commitment to progressive values:

UAW Virginia, CWA, IUPAT, Ironworkers, Plumbers, Operating Engineers, Heating and Asbestos Workers, Washington DC Building Trades Council, AFSCME Virginia, Boilermakers, Operating Engineers, EMILY’s List, UAW International, National Women’s Political Caucus, and EMILY’s List.  

If she win the primary and the general, Byrne will be a great member of Congress.  I emailed back and forth with her over our standard set of questions focusing on key moments of progressive leverage in Congress; the war funding vote in 2007, the FISA vote in 2007, and retroactive immunity for the telecommunications industry.  Here are her responses.

1) How would you have voted on the war funding bill that the Democrats passed in May?

I would have voted against the war funding bill. I have been on record since January,2003 as being against the war and the occupation of Iraq when a dozen former members of Congress and I sent a letter to President Bush not to embark on this foolhardy war.

2) What is your position on the Protect America Act that went through Congress in August, the bill that extended the President’s eavesdropping power3?

I would have voted against it. Warrantless wiretapping, cutting courts out of the process and giving the power to the administration, under any fair reading of the Constitution should be illegal.

3) What is your position on retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies?

I’m against immunity.  The telecommunications companies  who complied (not all did) have some of the highest priced legal talent available. They should have asked for a court ruling before handing over their customers records. I was very pleased that the US House found their voice on this issue.

Byrne has also signed on to the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq, showing leadership now as a candidate for office and facing withering attacks because she spoke out substantively to change the conversation on national security.  

Even though many of us are political junkies, we don’t get many chances to really impact politics in this country.  Primaries, though, are the moments when our influence is felt most keenly, because it is at those times when Democratic activists and Democratic voters really shape the party’s direction.  It’s hard to have a clearer choice than the one presented in this primary in Virginia, so if you want to put money to where it will really matter, give $50 to Leslie Byrne, and let’s send another progressive Democrat to support the fight we started years ago.

Give to Leslie Byrne through Blue Majority

Leslie Byrne for Congress

UPDATE:  Right now, Blue Majority is at 5534 donors.  Since we started the page, here’s what our candidates have done:  Donna Edwards won a primary, Bill Foster is a member of Congress who was pivotal in the FISA fight, Al Franken is winning his primary, Joe Garcia is presenting a fundamental challenge to the fruitless embargo against Cuba, and Darcy Burner and Eric Massa have presented a substantive and responsible plan to end the war in Iraq.  I’d say we got our money’s worth.

One point to note is that these are the salad days of progressive change, with Republicans dropping like flies.  We will not face an environment like this for years, so it is right now when your money matters.  We’ve seen the change that our candidates are already making.

It’s time to support them, so throw in $75 if you can.  Blue Majority is setting a goal of getting to 6500 donors by the end of the quarter.  If you haven’t given, now’s the time.  I just threw in $100.  And now, courtesy of Actblue’s new user account feature, you can store your donation history.  Here’s mine.

It’s that time again: A week from today, all federal campaigns have to close the books on the fundraising quarter. This means that if you want your favorite candidates to be able to issue strong quarterly campaign finance reports, you’ve got to contribute by March 31st.

Now, I’ll be honest – this is one of my least favorite parts of blogging, and it’s certainly one of the less pleasant aspects of politics in general. But money still matters – a lot. If we want to expand our majorities in Congress – and especially if we want to see progressive change – we’ll need a lot of cash to do so. Many big players – including labor unions, progressive organizations, and deep-pocketed donors – will look at these reports to decide which candidates to give to. It may not seem fair or even wise, but it’s reality, and we’ve got to work the system as best we can.

So we’re asking you to contribute to the Blue Majority candidates on ActBlue. These men and women are all strong progressives who are taking the fight to Republicans all over the country. Of course, they can’t do it without our help, which is why it’s the netroots’ duty to get involved.

Right now, the Blue Majority page stands at about 5,500 total contributions (you can see the number right at the top). Our goal is to add a thousand more contributions by the end of the quarter so that we can hit 6,500 overall. The size of your contribution doesn’t matter (though of course, we encourage you to give as generously as you are able to). We’re looking for aggregate numbers of donors. As the Obama campaign in particular has shown, smart campaigns can get a lot of mileage out of small donors, especially those who give early on. (And it’s still early.)

So please, stand up and be counted – make a donation to a worthy Democrat or three. And of course, if your favorite candidates are not on the Blue Majority page, we strongly encourage you to give to them at their own websites. Let’s nail that 6,500 target!

Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R
CT-02 (Courtney) CT-05 (Murphy) GA-12 (Barrow) IL-08 (Bean) IN-02 (Donnelly) IN-08 (Ellsworth) KS-03 (Moore) MN-01 (Walz) NC-11 (Shuler) NH-02 (Hodes) NY-19 (Hall) NY-24 (Arcuri) OH-18 (Space) PA-08 (Murphy) PA-11 (Kanjorski) TX-23 (Rodriguez)	AK-AL (Young) AZ-05 (Mitchell) AZ-08 (Giffords) CA-11 (McNerney) FL-16 (Mahoney) GA-08 (Marshall) IL-11 (Open) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KS-02 (Boyda) KY-03 (Yarmuth) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NY-20 (Gillibrand) NY-25 (Open) PA-04 (Altmire) PA-10 (Carney) TX-22 (Lampson) WI-08 (Kagen)	AL-05 (Open) AZ-01 (Open) LA-06 (Open) MN-03 (Open) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NM-01 (Open) NY-26 (Open) OH-15 (Open) OH-16 (Open) OR-05 (Open) VA-11 (Open)	CA-04 (Open) CO-04 (Musgrave) CT-04 (Shays) IL-10 (Kirk) LA-04 (Open) MI-07 (Walberg) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MO-06 (Graves) NC-08 (Hayes) NV-03 (Porter) NY-29 (Kuhl) OH-01 (Chabot) OH-02 (Schmidt) WA-08 (Reichert)	AL-02 (Open) AZ-03 (Shadegg) CA-26 (Dreier) CA-46 (Rohrabacher) FL-08 (Keller) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-15 (Open) FL-18 (Ros-Lehtinen) FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart) FL-24 (Feeney) FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart) ID-01 (Sali) IL-06 (Roskam) IL-18 (Open) KY-02 (Open) MD-01 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-09 (Open) MS-01 (Open) NM-02 (Open) NV-02 (Heller) NY-13 (Fossella) OH-14 (LaTourette) PA-06 (Gerlach) PA-18 (Murphy) VA-02 (Drake) VA-10 (Wolf) WV-02 (Capito) WY-AL (Open)

So here’s something new. Inspired by the likes of the Cook Political Report and CQ Politics, I’ve cooked up this chart of 2008’s competitive House races, sorted by their likeliness to be retained or lost by the incumbent party.

The standard caveats apply here: the ratings shown are only indicative of the current state of the races. As the campaigns become more engaged and more information becomes known, many of these seats will shift position on the chart — some, perhaps, dropping off altogether. That said, there will be opportunities for other races to be added if circumstances call for it.

Got a beef with our take? Want to post your own ratings? Stick ’em in the comments.

This week I had the chance to participate in a candidate forum on veteran’s issues held in Franklin, Venango County.  The forum offered a great opportunity to address several issues important to veterans in the 5th district.  Several weeks ago I spoke with Ed Scurry, one of the veterans who set up the forum, and he mentioned to me the frustration that veterans in the north central region feel in trying to get regular attention from the current congressman.

Understanding their frustration, one of the ideas I offered during the forum is that I will employ a person on my district staff in the position of Veteran’s Liaison.  The top priorities of the Veteran’s Liaison will be to meet on a regular basis with veterans and veterans groups on issues important to them on the local, regional and national levels.  Additionally, I will utilize this person to keep me informed and up to date on all issues important to veterans.  Perhaps the most important part of my idea, and a promise I will keep, is the person I hire as the Veterans Liaison will be a veteran from the 5th district.

I also continue to press my idea that the federal Veteran’s Administration should have the ability to subcontract with local health care providers so elderly and disabled veterans can get health care services closer to home.  I’ve told the story several times during the campaign of Clearfield County veterans who have to travel to Pittsburgh to get cardiac care when we have a state of the art cardiac facility at the DuBois Regional Medical Center.

Another issue of great importance to veterans in the 5th district and across the nation is the issue of concurrent receipt.  It is my firm belief that a veteran’s pension payment and military disability compensation should be kept separated – one should not have an affect on the other.  A veteran has earned their pension and it should not have an amount deducted if they also receive disability compensation.  Additionally, if a veteran has served their country and suffered a service related disability, our nation owes them their disability compensation.  In Congress, I will support veterans receiving their full military pension and, for any disabled veterans, they should also receive their disability compensation in addition to their pension.

As a nation, we owe a tremendous debt to our veterans.  My recently deceased father was a proud veteran of World War II and my father-in-law served in Vietnam.  Also, as county commissioner, I work closely with our county VA Director to make sure he has the funding to adequately serve veterans in Clearfield County.  It’s a sad day when we hear the stories coming out of Congress that they fail to adequately fund services for our nation’s veterans.

————————

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The DCCC’s Executive Director, Brian Wolff, recently posted on Democratic efforts to take three Republican-held House seats in South Florida over at the Huffington Post. As you are probably aware, there’s been a tremendous amount of controversy over the fact that Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, co-chair of the DCCC’s Red to Blue program, has recused herself from these three races, despite the fact that we have quality challengers in each. (Rep. Kendrick Meek has also abandoned these candidates.) Wolff had this to say about the controversy:

 

 

This is in keeping with Wolff’s prior comments on how importantly he views this issue:

Brian Wolff, executive director of the DCCC, says the bloggers are making “much ado about nothing,” noting that it’s “customary” for members to remain neutral in races involving GOP members of their respective congressional delegations.

If you, however, take a different view of things, I encourage you to call or write the relevant parties and let them know:

Debbie Wasserman Schultz (campaign office):

E-mail: AskDebbie@DWSforCongress.com

Phone: 202-741-7154

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen (campaign office):

E-mail: chris@vanhollen.org

Phone: 301-942-3768

DCCC Headquarters:

Contact form

Phone: 202-863-1500

Continuing through the alphabet

North Carolina has 13 representatives: 6 Republicans and 7 Democrats

The filing deadline was Feb 29, primary is May 6

North Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline is April 11, primary is June 10

District: NC-01

Location Northeast NC, bordering VA and Pimlico Sound

Representative George Butterfield (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  None

Demographics 39th most rural (52.3$), 15th lowest income (median = $28K), 74th fewest Whites (44.4%), 24th most Blacks (50.5%)

Assessment  Unopposed

District: NC-02

Location Central NC, including Raleigh

Representative Bob Etheridge (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents In 2004, Billy Creech raised $130K to Etheridge’s $1 million. In 2006, Dan Mansell raised little

Current opponents None

Demographics 43rd most rural (50.5%)

Assessment Unopposed

District: NC-03

Location Most of the Atlantic coast of NC

Representative Walter Jones (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 71-29

Bush margin 2004 68-32

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents   Marshall Adame

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-04

Location The ‘research triangle’ including Chapel Hill, Durham, and Cary

Representative David Price (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Augustus Cho

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-05

Location Northwest NC, bordering TN and VA

Representative Virginia Foxx (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Harrell raised $400K to Foxx’s $1.2 million.  In 2006, Roger Sharpe raised $100K

Current opponents Roy Carter

Demographics 22nd most rural (57.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-06

Location Central NC

Representative Howard Coble (R)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Teresa Sue Bratton

Jay Ovittore and

Johnny Carter

Demographics 56th most rural (48.4%), 25th most Republican

Assessment This is a solidly Republican seat, but Coble is getting old (born 1931) and hasn’t had a serious fight in a while…

District: NC-07

Location Southern NC, bordering SC and the Atlantic

Representative Mike McIntyre (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 73-27

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Will Breazeale

Demographics 30th most rural (54.9%), 70th most Blacks (23.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-08

Location Central part of southern NC, bordering SC,

Representative Robin Hayes (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 329 votes out of 121,000

2004 margin 56-44

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents In 2006, Larry Kissell raised $800K to Hayes’ $2.5 million; in 2004, Beth Troutman raised $200K to Hayes’ $1.6 million

Current opponents Larry Kissell

Demographics 58th most Blacks (26.6%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks this the 20th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it is on the DCCC list

District: NC-09

Location A strange shaped district in southern NC, bordering SC

Representative Susan Myrick (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 70-30

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ross Overby

Harry Taylor , possibly Bill Glass

Demographics 73rd highest income (median = $55K) (3rd highest in the deep south, after GA-06 and GA-07)

Assessment Long shot

District: NC-10

Location Western NC, but east of NC-11, running from TN to SC

Representative Patrick McHenry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 64-36

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Steve Ivester

Demographics 46th most rural (50.1%), 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: NC-11

Location Westernmost NC, bordering TN, GA, and SC

Representative Heath Shuler (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shuler ousted Charles Taylor, raising $ 1.8 million to Taylor’s $4.4 million

Current opponents John Armor, Carl Mumpower

Demographics 25th most rural (56.1%), 90th lowest income (median = $35K)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 14th most vulnerable Democratic seat.

District: NC-12

Location A really weird, snaky district, SC’s “Black” district.  Includes Charlotte and Winston Salem.  It was the subject of 4 Supreme Court cases. Still, it borders the NC5,6,8,9, and 10th

Representative Mel Watt (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 67-33

Bush margin 2004 37-63

Notes on opponents Ada Fisher ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004 he raised $100K, in 2006, $400K.  Watt raised about $500K each time

Current opponents Ada Fisher again

Demographics 28th most Blacks (44.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NC-13

Location Central part of northern NC, bordering VA

Representative Brad Miller (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 59-41

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Vernon Robinson raised $2.2 million to Miller’s $1.8 million.  In 2004, Virginia Johnson raised $350K to Johnson’s $1.2 million

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  safe

District: ND-AL

Location The whole state

Representative Earl Pomeroy (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 63-34

Notes on opponents In 2004, Duane Sand raised $1 million to Pomeroy’s $1.8 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 73rd most rural (44.2%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

At a town hall meeting Tuesday night (it’s a Congressional “district work period”), Debbie Wasserman Schultz had this to say about her abandonment of three strong Democratic challengers in South Florida:

I know there are people here that are interested in a political matter, so I will get that out of the way right at the beginning. If you have a concern about my previous comments about my staying out of the races in South Florida where candidates are challenging Lincoln Diaz-Balart, Ileana Ros- Lehtinen and Mario Diaz-Balart, I will tell you two things:

First off, I have not endorsed any of the three incumbents in South Florida, nor will I, and I do not support their re-election campaign. I am supportive of the Democratic candidates who are running against them. I have never said otherwise.

Second, I have a national role as one of three co-chairs of Red to Blue Program. All candidates, from Florida to Alaska, have criteria that have to be met to get on this targeted list. Let me guarantee that if they fulfill those criteria, these three Democratic Candidates will be part of our Red to Blue Program…period, end of story. We have three co-chairs in order to be able to spread the workload among us.  It makes much more sense to have someone from outside of one’s own region to be able to make the hits necessary.  

But at the same time I am a representative of the 20th Congressional district of Florida, and I think it is absolutely my responsibility to work with my Republican colleagues.

But just one cycle ago, Debbie had an entirely different outlook – and with good reason:

While her moxie during debates over Terri Schiavo and Hurricane Katrina has earned kudos, it has also gotten the 39-year-old rookie into some trouble. She has rankled the longest-serving and most powerful congressman from South Florida, Republican Clay Shaw, by openly supporting his Democratic challenger.

Shaw’s staff said he tried to welcome her to the Capitol by offering advice and temporary office space and was upset to learn that she was helping state Sen. Ron Klein raise money and meet party leaders.  

…  

Wasserman Schultz served with Klein in the state Legislature for 12 years, and they are close friends. She was tapped by Democratic leaders to help with recruitment and said she could not stay out of a competitive congressional race.  

“It’s not good for my relationship with Clay Shaw, but Democrats can’t afford to leave a seat like that uncontested,” she said.

Why was it okay to do things that weren’t “good for her relationship” with Clay Shaw, but not okay to do so with Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balarts? If Debbie Wasserman Schultz values “working with Republicans” more than expanding our majority in Congress, then she should step down from Red to Blue, regardless of how many co-chairs there are. Everyone running Red to Blue needs to be a partisan bulldog.

And, of course, if the shoe were on the other foot, would any of these three Republicans hesitate to stab Debbie in the back? Of course not.

(Hat tip: FLA Politics.)

Elections are my favorite.