Month: July 2008

Cross-posted over at Daily Kingfish.

As of 11 PM CST on July 14th, not one Republican candidate for the House in Louisiana has filed their July quarterly. Five of the 18 Democrats running have filed their reports. Without further adieu, here are those five fundraising reports:

LA-01

Jim Harlan has filed his report. Vinnie Mendoza, a perpetual candidate, has not.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Jim Harlan	$595,399.05	$41,020.99	$525,000	$554,378.06

No, the debts is not a mis-print. Mr. Harlan donated his campaign $525,000. For the first time in recent memory, money will not be a reason for the Democratic candidate in LA-01 to lose. It will be because the campaign didn’t do a good job. I doubt that will be the case, as the campaign manager for Mr. Harlan is the same campaign manager that helped Travis Childers

LA-02

There are 8 Democrats running in the primary, including incumbent Congressman Bill Jefferson. Only 2 of the 8 have filed their FEC reports so far. They are:

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Troy “C” Carter	$51,112	$34,120.01	$87,906.27	-$1,442.37

Mr. Troy Carter is not a serious candidate. The debt is partly from his failed run back in 2006, where he placed fourth in the jungle primary behind the Republican. I’ve corrected the amount raised this quarter from his FEC report. If you click on his name, it’ll bring you to his July Quarterly FEC report, where he reports NO money raised this quarter. But if you take a look at his April Quarterly report, you’ll see that he only reported some $2,188 raised in the election cycle to date column, and nothing again in the this cycle to date column. Mr. Carter, please find someone to teach your staff how to fill out the reports properly!

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Cedric Richmond	$111,800	$17,895.39	$100,000	$193,904.61

The debt is money that Mr. Richmond gave his campaign. For a first-time candidate for the U.S. House, the first quarter fundraising for Mr. Richmond is impressive. Almost $200,000 in the bank. Right now, he has to be one of the favorites to oust Congressman Jefferson.

LA-03

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Charlie Melancon	$237,858.13	$52,243.17	$0.00	$1,042,583.14

Since Charlie won re-election by acclamation, as no Republican bothered to file to run against him, he is a prime candidate for the netroots’ Use It or Lose It Campaign. He can easily afford to give 30% of his cash on hand to the DCCC so they can pump even more money into LA-01, LA-04, LA-06 and LA-07 to help us elect the Democratic candidates in those districts.

LA-04

There are 4 Democrats running for the nomination in this district – Willie Banks, Paul Carmouche, Artis “Doc” Cash and John Milkovich. Thus far, only Mr. Banks has filed his July Quarterly FEC report.

Candidate	Money Raised	Money Spent	Debts	Cash on Hand
Willie Banks	$3,267	$8,788.31	$10,000	$11,545.16

The debt is money that Mr. Banks loaned his campaign. He’s having a hard time raising cash, presumably because he’s running against a VERY well-known Democrat in that district, the Caddo Parish District Attorney, Paul Carmouche, who has served in that capacity for I believe 30 years.

From Roll Call:

As Sen. Roger Wicker (R) continues to air a series of campaign ads in central and Gulf Coast Mississippi this month, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is going up on television in the Magnolia state beginning today.

The DSCC television purchases in Mississippi means the party will be on the air in the Magnolia State ahead of the Democratic Senate nominee, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who has yet to buy television ads in the special Senate election.

No word yet on the nature of the ad or the scope of the buy, but it appears that the DSCC is not willing to let Wicker have the airwaves to himself while Musgrove works to build up his war chest. We’ll have more details on this one as we get ’em.

Recent rasmussen polls have shown Obama doing very well in three Midwest states, Montana, South and North Dakota. Obama leads in Montana by 5% is tied in North Dakota and is behind by 4% in South Dakota.

These are all states that went to Bush by more then 20% margins in 2004. I’m wondering how Obama is doing so well in those states, those states are not Democrat states, don’t have large Black or young populations. I’m a bit shocked that those three states are all competitive and might in fact go Democrat this year at the president level.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Democratic Nebraska Senate candidate Scott Kleeb outraised former Bush Administration official and governor of Nebraska Mike Johanns in Q2. Johanns raised nearly $683,000 while Kleeb raised nearly $700,000.

This is huge news for Kleeb. Johanns has a head start since he started campaigning in September and Scott only got in the race in February but since February Scott has raised more then Johanns. Still those almost five months gave Johanns close to 2 million dollars and it’s important to close the gap. Scott is a great candidate and if we want to get to 60 seats and get stuff done in 2009 then we’re going to need to win this race. Nebraska native Mike Lux has made that case well.

This is a key race that is winnable but Kleeb needs all the support we can give him. He’s very close to the $1,000,000 mark. Let’s put him over the top. We’ve got to stand with those who stand with us.

To get more of a feel for Scott check out this ad from his primary campaign.

And check out his slick newly redesigned website here.

Yes We Kleeb!

As a nation, we must provide high-quality, affordable, and portable coverage for all Americans. Increasingly, this is not just a moral imperative but an economic necessity as the high cost of health care coverage is putting American business, large and small alike, at a weaker competitive advantage with their overseas competitors. Working with all parties, we must guarantee all Americans access to affordable health plans, regardless of income or illness. – Scott Kleeb

Jesse Ventura just told Larry King that he won’t run for Senate. Phew.

Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters, 6/11 in parens) has released another poll of the race today:

Al Franken (D): 44 (45)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 42 (48)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here’s what a three-way match-up would’ve looked like:

Al Franken (D): 34 (32)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (39)

Jesse Ventura (I): 22 (24)

Encouraging news for Franken, but it should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to be more favorable to Franken than some other pollsters like SUSA and Quinnipiac.

UPDATE: And on cue, SurveyUSA brings a very different look at the race (7/11-13, likely voters, 6/10-12 in parens):

Al Franken (D): 39 (40)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bizarrely, SUSA shows that Coleman’s strongest voting bloc is the 18-34 demographic, who give him an implausibly high 58-31 lead. I find it difficult to believe that younger voters are Franken’s weakest link, so it’s hard for me to fully buy this poll and others like it from SUSA showing the same pattern.

An interesting new article from NCEC (the National Committee for an Effective Congress) shows just how far the GOP has fallen from its late-90s glory days. They’re by no means the first to observe that the Republicans have increasingly painted themselves into a corner in the deep south with their divisive rhetoric and embrace of the religious right, but they put it into pretty stark relief with some excellent charts and maps.

I won’t reproduce their charts (please check out the link), but the takeaway is that fully 41% of the Republicans’ seats are now in the South. If the different states were stocks, the Dems would be seen as having relatively balanced portfolio, while the GOP has put most of its eggs in the southern basket, holding very little of the northeast or west anymore.

The outcome of elections since 1996 has exposed a far larger problem for Republicans, than Democrats faced in the South. More than 46% of Republican House seats emanate from southern and border states, possessing only 28% of House seats nationally.

Republicans now control only 25.9% of congressional districts in the East, which translates into a 41-seat deficit. At their nadir, Democrats still held more than 40% of all seats in southern and border states.

The article predicts this will be a long-term hole for the GOP, not just based on regional trends but also the strength of Democratic incumbents, pointing out in all the years following 1994, only three Democratic incumbents lost in non-redistricting-affected races. Update: Although by Swing State Project’s own calculations, that number should be seven.

This article focused on the current composition of Congress, and left me with a few more questions: where have we been, over the last couple decades, and where might we go? To wit, here’s how the regionalized breakdown of the House has evolved since 1992:

Congress	Midwest	Northeast	South	West
110th (2006)	50 D 50 R	68 D 24 R	61 D 84 R	57 D 41 R
109th (2004)	40 D 60 R	56 D 35 R 1 I	53 D 92 R	53 D 45 R
108th (2002)	39 D 61 R	55 D 36 R 1 I	60 D 85 R	52 D 46 R
107th (2000)	48 D 57 R	57 D 39 R 1 I	56 D 83 R 1 I	50 D 43 R
106th (1998)	51 D 54 R	59 D 37 R 1 I	58 D 82 R	44 D 49 R
105th (1996)	50 D 55 R	57 D 39 R 1 I	58 D 82 R	41 D 52 R
104th (1994)	46 D 59 R	51 D 45 R 1 I	62 D 78 R	39 D 54 R
103rd (1992)	61 D 44 R	54 D 42 R 1 I	88 D 52 R	55 D 38 R

[Note: I’m classifying my regions a little differently than the NCEC article (which uses 5 regions), consistent with how I’ve done regions before, i.e. I use the standard Census Bureau 4-region configuration, with one change: I include Maryland and Delaware as Northeast. Don’t forget that redistricting occurred between the 107th and 108th Congresses, in case you’re tinkering with these numbers and getting screwy results.]

As you can see, most of the last 14 years was a slow recovery from the 1994 debacle (where our losses were distributed pretty evenly across the country), followed by making up most of the rest of the loss in one feel swoop in 2006. Look at where the regional differences between now and 1992 (the last Democratic majority) are, though: the composition in the West didn’t change that much, and we’re down a bit in the Midwest from where we were, although things are even there now. We used to have a big majority in the South, which has turned into a deficit for us. And while the GOP used to be nearly even with us in the Northeast, they’ve been reduced to bit players there. (Which turns out to be a good trade-off, if you remember my piece on the “pivot point” from a few weeks ago: more Northeastern Dems and fewer Southern Dems means a more progressive Dem caucus, on average, than where we were during in Clinton’s first term.

Now let’s look at where we might be next year, using the same pessimistic/average/optimistic predictions that I’ve used before (pessimistic = 13 pickups, of SSP‘s tossups and lean Ds, average = 26 pickups, including lean Rs, wildly optimistic = 56 pickups, including likely Rs).

Congress	Midwest	Northeast	South	West
111th pessimistic	54 D 46 R	73 D 19 R	62 D 83 R	60 D 38 R
111th average	60 D 40 R	75 D 17 R	64 D 81 R	63 D 35 R
111th optimistic	66 D 34 R	78 D 14 R	77 D 68 R	71 D 27 R

The “average” scenario takes the total number of Dems back up to where they were in the House in 1992, but the regional balance will have totally changed. All three of these scenarios show an acceleration of the trend we’ve seen so far, though: the intensification of the Northeast as a Dem stronghold, and the marginalization of the GOP in the South (where, under the “optimistic” scenario, the GOP is left with almost 48% of its seats only in the South).

DEP Rejects Permit Application for PA Waste / Boggs Township Landfill.

I’m pleased to report the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has rejected the permit application filed by PA Waste LLC to construct a 5,000 ton per day municipal waste landfill in Boggs Township, Clearfield County. As county commissioner, I’ve been working over the past 4 years, first with Rex Read and Mike Lytle, and now with John Sobel and Joan Robinson McMillen, to oppose the construction of this landfill in Clearfield County.

Elected leaders including State Rep. Camille George, county officials and many township and borough officials also worked to oppose this landfill.  However, there are more important people to congratulate for this outcome.  Since August of 2004 when it was first announced that the site in Boggs Township was being targeted for the development of a landfill, a group of committed citizens led by Darryl Lashinsky, Paula Norris, Randy Levin, Leo Knepp and others, met faithfully month after month to oppose the landfill.  

The announcement on Friday, July 11th that PA Waste’s permit application had been rejected was a direct result of citizen involvement and their expectations that government would protect the interests of the citizens over the interests of a corporate entity.  While PA Waste still has the right to appeal this decision or submit a new application at a later date, this is, at least for the time being, a small victory for the people of central Pennsylvania.  

Some people will question how the Boggs Township landfill is an issue for a congressional campaign.  With several communities in the 5th congressional district targeted for landfill development, our next congressman should be interested and involved in these issues.  Additionally, I feel our leaders in Washington should be paying more attention interstate commerce laws and try to control the flow of garbage.  Not only are states legally sending their environmental problems to other states, but, our nation’s fuel supplies are being depleted faster when thousands of trucks per day are moving garbage hundreds of miles to pristine rural areas like central Pennsylvania.  This is an issue I’ve been involved in and I hope voters in the 5th district will consider this when choosing their next congressman.

Cook Report Changes Rating for 5th District Race:

Recently, the Cook Political Report changed the race in the 5th District from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican”.  The Cook Report has a 7 position rating scale that runs “Solid Republican”, “Likely Republican”, “Leans Republican”, “Toss Up”, “Leans Democratic”, “Likely Democratic” and “Solid Democratic”.  While we’re not in a “Toss Up” race yet, this is positive news for our campaign and proves if we continue to work hard and spread our message, voters are listening and giving strong consideration to where we stand on the issues.  

As we move forward in the campaign I feel certain we will see additional positive gains in voter support and registration numbers.  One area where we can count on solid results is in Centre County.  They already have an impressive ground campaign underway, not only for Barack Obama, but for the entire slate of Democratic candidates.  We can also be encouraged by the solid support and interest we are receiving in all 17 counties throughout the 5th district.  Even more encouraging is that our efforts are getting recognition from a national entity like the Cook Report.  Can you feel the momentum building?

Scheduled Events for the Upcoming Week:

Tuesday July 15th — Jefferson County Fair — 5 to 9 PM*

* – May make additional appearance at Jefferson County Fair if time allows.

Wednesday July 16th — Lycoming County Fair — 4 to 8 PM

Thursday July 17th — Clearfield

McCracken for Congress Dinner

5:30 to 7:30 PM — Lawrence Township Fire Company Social Hall — Mill Road Clearfield

Cost – $20 per person

Event catered by The Country Butcher — Door Prizes

Thursday July 17th — Clearfield County Democratic Committee Meeting — 7 — 9 PM

IBEW Building, Clearfield, PA

Friday July 18th — Tioga County

McCracken for Congress Picnic

4-8 pm – Hills Creek State Park, Crabapple Pavilion

Cost – $10.00 per person, $18.00 per couple, $25.00 per Family

Hot Dogs, salads, desserts and water, iced tea and lemonade to be served.

RSVP by July 16th to either Ann Gazda at 570-724-1449 / email gazda@epix.net or Bonne Kyofski at 570-827-3231 / email kyofski@epix.net.

Saturday July 19th — Curwensville Days Parade — 6 PM

Sunday July 20th — Lock Haven — Clinton County

McCracken for Congress Dinner

3:30 to 5:30 PM — Sons of Italy Hall — Downtown Lock Haven

Cost – $20 per person.

After dinner, although not an official part of the campaign event, people are encouraged to take part in the concert held at the riverfront amphitheatre which will feature a performance from a band featuring classic rock. NOTE — bring lawn chairs in case the stands are filled.

Please contact mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net for additional details on the above events.

Weekly Event Wrap Up:

During this past week we attended the following events:

Monday: DuBois Democratic Committee Meeting

Tuesday: Potter County Democratic Committee Meeting

Thursday: SEIU Interview in Harrisburg, Visit to Lycoming County Democratic / Obama Headquarters in Williamsport,  Philipsburg Heritage Days / Democratic Booth

Saturday: Philipsburg Heritage Days Parade, Central PA Festival of the Arts — State College and a visit to Centre County Democratic Headquarters.  

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

————————————————————————————————–

This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

The San Francisco Chronicle notes that carpetbagging conservative blockhead Tom McClintock has opened up campaign committees for a statewide bid in 2010:

Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, for example, has taken the Boy Scout motto “Be Prepared” to heart by opening 2010 campaign committees for both lieutenant governor and the state Board of Equalization, even while he’s running for a North State congressional seat in November.

Is Tom McClintock already looking for a way to bail from the voters of California’s 4th District? Is he already bored of a job that he hasn’t even started yet?