Month: July 2008

crossposted at kos

Howie Klein wrote a good article in the Huffington Post today, introducing Doug Tudor to the online community.  Doug is a family man, a 20+ year Navy veteran running against Tom DeLay crony Adam Putnam, of dubious anti-Pelosi fame.

Doug retired from the Navy for the sole purpose of running for office in this seat.  His wife is in the air force, and his family is living off just her salary for now.  Doug is a solid candidate, but is a family man just like us, so he needs grassroots support to help his campaign along.

more…

Klein gives a good overview of the race here in central Florida:

Yesterday, DWT contacted Doug Tudor, a twenty year naval veteran who has decided to challenge Putnam is his central Florida bastion east of Tampa. Formerly a strong Democratic district, dispirited Democrats didn’t even bother running a candidate in 2006. Tudor is shaking up politics in Polk County, not by trying to echo Republican talking points but by presenting a clear and powerful alternative, the alternative Americans want to hear. Predictably, the cowardly Democratic Establishment, which prefers Republican-lite candidates, is trying to ignore his grassroots race. Tudor, who traveled to Iraq over 30 times, has been endorsed by Democracy for America. His politics are strongly progressive across the board. He wants to end the war in Iraq. He defends a woman’s right to choice. He would never support inequality for any Americans and he supports the equal rights for gay men and women. He knows Bush will never end the war and in his campaign speeches he calls on Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Florida Senator Bill Nelson to end the war. I had a feeling he might have something to say about warrantless wiretapping and retroactive immunity. He did:

“On five occasions during my Navy career, I raised my hand and affirmed ‘to protect and defend the Constitution against all enemies foreign and domestic.’ Members of Congress take a similar oath. I believe that those members who voted in favor of HR 6304 did so in violation of their oath of office. I would have voted against this bill.”

Doug Tudor needs your help to defeat Adam Putnam, a puppet who votes with Bush nearly 100% of the time in a district that has more registered Democrats than Republicans.  It’s also a district that is high in veteran population.  Get involved or donate here.  This area has been shifting red lately because Democrats have basically ignored it.  With Florida being a swing state in this election, having a strong candidate on the ticket in every district will help out Obama as well.  People here are fed up, and there is a lot of enthusiasm among activists in this area.  We signed up over 150 volunteers (for the Obama campaign) a week and a half ago for Polk County alone.  We can win this thing and send Adam Putnam packing with your help!

Did the invitations get lost in the mail?

(H/T: Ryan)

(Updated with IL-11 numbers)

LA-Sen:

     John Kennedy (R): $1.48M raised; $2.7M CoH

MN-02:

     Steve Sarvi (D): $146K raised; $95K CoH

     John Kline (R): ~$166K raised $240K raised; $645K CoH

MN-03:

     Erik Paulsen (R): $600K raised; $1.1M CoH

NJ-03:

     John Adler (D): $720K raised; $1.4M CoH

OH-02:

     Vic Wulsin: $307K raised; $377K CoH (via email)

IL-11:

     Marty Ozinga (R): $800K raised; $650K CoH

     Debbie Halvorson (D): $400K raised; $900K CoH

NJ-Sen:

     Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): $1.3M CoH

More as we get ’em.

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised… | …vs. the Saucermen From Mars

The GOP primary runoff for the open seat of retiring Alabama Rep. Terry Everett has taken a turn for the delightful in recent weeks, with state Rep. Jay Love and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith releasing a string of attack ads that are only getting nastier. It’s gotten so bad that Everett himself is calling on Love and Smith to knock it off:

On Tuesday, retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R), who has stayed neutral throughout the primary race for his Montgomery and southeast Alabama-based seat, called on both candidates to take down their negative ads and end the intraparty split that has developed.

“The tone of the runoff campaign for the 2nd District Congressional seat has taken a highly negative and unacceptable path,” Everett said in a statement. “Our country is facing crucial turning points and the issues confronting America and the people of the 2nd District should take precedence over the attack ads, thinly disguised as comparison ads, that are being aired by both candidates.”

Everett, who has held the seat for eight terms, asked both campaigns to “focus on the issues and behave in a manner that reflects well on our party, our state, and most importantly, the people we represent.”

How bad is it? Bad enough to tilt this R+13.2 district to Democrat Bobby Bright?

Craig Schmidtke, a Dothan oral surgeon who came in third place in the June GOP primary, said Tuesday that Love and Smith are on the verge of driving voters to the Democratic Party with their continued sniping at each other in ads and in news releases.

“It’s getting very ugly and very muddy, and people are just really honestly very fed up,” said Schmidtke, who garnered 20 percent of the primary vote but hasn’t endorsed either candidate in the runoff. “I’ve had many, many people who are die-hard Republicans who have told me personally that they are thinking about voting Democrat for the first time ever. I’m saddened that it’s come to this.”

Love and Smith have thrown the kitchen sink at each other, with each candidate claiming that the other is a tax-raiser. Smith has attacked Love for being tied to big oil and the hand-picked choice of DC politicians (Love is the candidate of choice of the NRCC and Boehner’s posse). Love has fired back that Smith is questioning his Christian credentials:

But, the ad that troubles Love the most is a radio spot bhecause it gets personal. “There’s a radio ad right now kind of questioning my Christianity.”  The beginning of the radio spot says, “He claims he’s a Christian conservative. The truth is Jay Love is not conservative at all.” Love had a strong reaction to that commercial. “I think that’s out of bounds. That’s personal attack in my mind. What hurts is and what’s disappointing is it’s coming from another republican.”  Smith says that’s not the message of her ad at all. “I question whether he really is a conservative – not a Christian. I would never, never question anybody’s faith.”

Love has also charged that Smith has sold out her values to accept money from “gambling” interests — or more specifically, from Country Crossing developer Ronnie Gilley. Gilley was so offended by Love, that he has apparently gone so far as to air his own radio ads featuring country singer George Jones calling Love a “plain old liar”.

This just might be the nastiest GOP House primary of the cycle so far, which is great news for Bobby Bright.

Runoff: July 15th

Ethridge and Associates for Tom Leatherwood (6/28-29, likely voters, 3/28-29 in parens):

Tom Leatherwood (R): 37 (30)

Marsha Blackburn (R-inc): 48 (57)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Leatherwood, a former state senator, is mounting another disgruntled Jason Chaffetz-style campaign (i.e. running to the right of a very right-wing representative), but his fundraising has been pretty bare bones thus far. Another “pick your poison” campaign? Maybe so, but it’s still fun to see GOP incumbents in peril.

Don’t expect this creatively-drawn R+12 district to come into play if Leatherwood knocks off Blackburn — Bush beat down Kerry by a 66-33 margin in 2004.

Primary: August 7th

(Hat-tip to reader AK)

That has got to sting:

Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama said Tuesday that he has not endorsed DeKalb CEO and U.S. Senate candidate Vernon Jones, despite a Jones’ campaign flier that shows the two men’s photos beneath the caption “Yes We Can.”

“I do not endorse him; I have not endorsed him,” Obama said Tuesday in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. “He put my picture on his literature, without asking me. […]

Obama, who was in metro Atlanta for two fund-raisers and a town hall meeting in Powder Springs said he thinks he met Jones at a previous campaign event.

“I think he may have to come to an event of ours a while back,” Obama said. “The reason I think I may have met him is I know somebody told me as I was shaking his hand that he had taken pride in voting for George Bush twice.”

Vernon Jones, the controversial DeKalb CEO, sent out a mailer (viewable here) to thousands of Georgians last week with a photoshopped image of Jones standing side-by-side with Obama.

Jones insists that “the only complaints I have received are from my liberal opponents backed by the liberal media,” but it’s clear that Obama is not amused by his chicanery.

Primary: July 15th

Both for my own amusement and because I believe it, I am presenting the following list of why all Obama supporters should be Oregon Ducks fans  This list is meant in satire and I apologize in advance to those I may offend/attack (read: Michigan, Washington, USC, Notre Dame and perhaps Oregon State fans).  Cross-posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=1222

10: Just like Obama, Oregon is always underrated.  No one ever expects us to be good.  In fact, over the last ten years, Oregon is the third most underrated football team in the country, ranking, on average 32.5 spots higher in the final poll of the season than in the pre-season poll.

9: Oregon, like Obama, takes pride in changing the status quo.  Fifteen years ago, no one had heard of Oregon sports, now we are among the best in the country in both football and basketball.  Unlike say Notre Dame, which seems to rest largely on its own past performances.

8: Oregon, like Obama, is an offensive-minded team.  Lead by Dennis Dixon, for example, Oregon’s spread offense last season was among the best in the country.  Just see this play again Michigan as evidence:

7: Oregon, like Obama, is thought of by its detractors as more than a little corny.  While in Obama’s case it is the slogan “Change you can believe in”, in Oregon’s case it is our uniforms, as seen below:

.

6: Even as our opponents cheat, in Obama’s case McCain, in our case, Washington and USC, both Oregon and Obama refuse to do so.  Both of us win regardless, which should be respected.

5: Both Oregon and Obama get smeared as being part of a subversive plot.  While for Obama it is the fake Muslim smear, in Oregon’s it is the accusation that because Phil Knight gives a lot of money to the athletic department he essentially runs it.  Both are untrue and both Oregon and Obama rise above it.

4: Both Oregon and Obama face opponents who don’t know when to quit.  Oregon’s rival Oregon State refuses to accept that it is never going to fully catch-up to the Ducks, especially in basketball, while Hillary took a good long time before quitting.  Even when they have lost, there are some in both cases, that refuse to admit it.

3: Neither Oregon nor Obama stand by and takes sh-t from anybody.  Just like Obama quickly responds to smears leveled against him, Oregon’s mascot last year beat the crap out of Houston’s mascot when it appeared to show the Duck up.  Just watch and you’ll see what I mean:

2: The Yell-O chant Ducks fans do at games can be used for Obama as well.  In fact, it was used during both of Obama’s Eugene rallies this fall.  See an example of it in the video below the next item.

1: Both Oregon and Obama draw large very enthusiastic crowds.  Oregon’s are considered some of the loudest and best in all of college sports, just as Obama’s are in the political arena.  See below for an example (the students are doing the “Yell-O” I mention in the last point):

Let me know what you think.

Two weeks ago, I posted a diary on DailyKos, MyDD, Open Left, and the Swing State Project announcing the creation of the ActBlue page Protecting Our Asses.  The goals of this page are as follows:

1. To reinforce vulnerable and potentially vulnerable incumbent members of Congress with cash.

2. To reward good, progressive behavior from these incumbents.

3. To diminish or replace the need for these incumbents to seek fundraising dollars from less progressive sources such as corporate PACs and “moderate”/conservative groups.

4. To send the message that the Netroots will have your back if you have ours.

This page grows out of a couple of observations I’ve made.  The first is that the Netroots seems almost exclusively oppositional in its campaign focus.  The candidates supported the most tend to be either general election challengers to Republicans or primary challengers to disappointing Democrats.  Don’t get me wrong, I have no problem with supporting Darcy Burner or Larry Kissell or Ned Lamont.  However, I would like to see Democrats retain seats as well.  A multi-term progressive is more able to act than a freshman progressive.  This is where goal number one comes in.

The second observation is that many candidates previous supported by the Netroots have been at various times disappointing.  Perhaps this is because such candidates feel they need to drift toward the center to be re-elected.  Maybe they feel that they can take the Netroots for granted.  Maybe even they feel abandoned by the Netroots and cast their lots with the DLC, etc.  This is where the other three goals come into play.

However, some incumbents stay true to their progressive ideals, despite district dynamics and potentially tough races.  Their courage and resolve should not cost them their jobs.  Such a thing would send a devasting message: Progressivism still equals defeat.

The first candidate added to Protecting Our Asses was Carol Shea-Porter.  Today, I’m announcing the addition of Steve Kagen.  Kagen is a freshman Democrat representing the Eight District of Wisconsin.  Kagen won by two points in 2006.  His race is currently rated as “Leans Democrat” by CQ, Cook, Sabato, and Rothenberg.  The PVI for this district is a troubling R+4.  So, there is a possibility that Kagen, should he be re-elected this year, will continue to face spirited challenges in the near future.

Despite his competitive race and Republican-leaning district, Kagen is a progressive, loyal Democrat.  Kagen enjoys a 93.27 rating from Progressive Punch, which includes perfect scores on the environment, housing, government checks on corporate power, and labor rights, plus either A’s or high B’s on aid to the less privileged, education and the arts, fair taxation, healthcare, human rights and civil liberties, war and peace, and equal justice.  Kagen has voted the right way on FISA, Iraq, the surge, S-CHIP, the minimum wage, and prescription drug price negotiations, just to name a few.

Please reward Steven Kagen (and Carol-Shea Porter) for their progressive stances.  We need to keep them in Congress.

http://www.actblue.com/page/pr…

Democrat Mark Begich is up with his first pair of ads in the Alaska Senate race this year. Check ’em out:

The ads are airing in the Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau media markets.

Public Policy Polling (7/2-5, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D): 36

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 43

Thomas Hill (L): 7

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Hayes’ job approval rating is a very mediocre 38% (with 37% disapproving), while a full 48% have no opinion of Kissell, meaning that, despite his close loss in 2006, Kissell is still not well-known throughout much of the district.

PPP has more:

The good news for Kissell is that he has a lot more room to move up. While only 6% of Republicans are undecided, 22% of Democrats are. Among African American voters, Kissell is currently at 55% with 24% undecided. That is likely to move at least into the 80% range if not higher once Kissell reintroduces himself to the voters this fall.

Looking up the ballot, Obama has a small 43-39 lead over McCain in the district, with Barr snagging 7% (a number that I wouldn’t be surprised to see go down by election day). Bush won this district by 9 points in 2004, so this is exactly the sort of place that Obama needs to win in order to carry the state in November. And if Obama can provide the coattails, Hayes will be forced to fight against a headwind.

In the Governor’s race, Democrat Bev Perdue leads Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory by 43-38. Considering that much of the 8th District lies within the Charlotte media market, that’s a pretty decent showing for Perdue.

SSP currently rates NC-08 as Leans Republican.