Month: July 2008

GA-12:

     Regina Thomas (D): $42K raised; $25K CoH (est.)

Thomas still hasn’t filed her pre-primary financial report with the FEC (which was due on the 3rd), so these estimates came straight from the candidate. Considering that Thomas’ $42K figure tracks very closely to her current total on Actblue, it’s very clear that blogs like Democrats.com and the Blue America crew are doing most of the heavy lifting for her in terms of fundraising. Not a great sign, but it wouldn’t be wise to write off her chances in next week’s primary.

NY-25:

     Dan Maffei (D): ~$470K raised; >$950K CoH

LA-01:

     Jim Harlan (D): $500K personal donation $70K raised + $525K personal loan; $554K CoH

AZ-01:

     Ann Kirkpatrick (D): “significantly” >$260K raised

AZ-03:

     Bob Lord (D): >$220K raised

NY-10:

     Kevin Powell (D): ~$100K CoH

IL-10:

     Mark Kirk (R-inc): >$900K raised; $2.85M CoH

     Dan Seals (D): $635K raised; $1.17M CoH

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying… | I Know What You Raised…

Mike McMahon is kicking off his congressional campaign with a bang:

Democratic City Councilman Michael McMahon this week plans for file what is thought to be a record 10,000 petition signatures for his congressional bid this year, eight times the amount of signatures he needs to get on the fall ballot.

Well done. Now how about the GOP, who were hampered in their ability to gather signatures by the shocking death of Frank Powers last month?

Staten Island Republicans, meanwhile, don’t have a candidate yet and appear poised to file the 1,550 or so signatures the party gathered on behalf of congressional designee Frank Powers, who died late last month and has yet to be replaced.

That total would leave Republicans just 300 over the 1,250 signatures that the GOP needs to fend off challenges and guarantee the party a space on the ballot. Parties usually like to have at least double the amount of signatures needed to qualify any candidate.

As we’ve said before, the number of petitions gathered is way too close to comfort and would likely invite a legal challenge from Democrats. Still, a number of other candidates are gathering signatures to be placed on the GOP primary ballot in September: Staten Island GOP Treasurer Jamshad Wyne, former Assemblyman Bob Straniere, and Independence Party candidate and businessman Carmine Morano. A cross-endorsement of Brooklyn Conservative Paul Atanasio is also possible.

With this much confusion so late in the game, perhaps it’s not surprising that Guy Molinari, the so-called “dean” of Staten Island Republicans, is not sanguine about his party’s chances this fall: “Based on the candidates that have surfaced so far, yes, we’re going to lose the seat.”

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Bendixen & Associates (6/6-22, registered voters) polls our trio of South Florida congressional races.

FL-25:

Joe Garcia (D): 39

Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-21:

Raul Martinez (D): 37

Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 41

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±5%)

FL-18:

Annette Taddeo (D): 31

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 58

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

The McClatchy article on these polls doesn’t specify whether or not Bendixen tested registered or likely voters, but given that the poll overlaps with this similarly-targeted Bendixen poll from the same time frame, we’ll make the assumption that this is a poll of registered voters.

While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP’s traditional grip on South Florida’s Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).

This could be a transformative year in South Florida.

SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade.

Newly-elected GOP Rep. Steve Scalise won’t get a free pass this fall:

“Pro-life, pro-gun, fiscally conservative” Democrat Jim Harlan announced his candidacy for Congress on YouTube on Independence Day, bringing a self-funding challenger to recently elected Republican Rep. Steve Scalise this fall.

Harlan, who was a registered independent until February, attended the Democratic Convention earlier this year for the district’s special election in March and decided to get involved.

“He didn’t think [Scalise] would do a good job in Congress, and decided he might as well do it by himself,” campaign manager Joel Coon said. “The more he saw of the [campaign] process, the more he thought about it.”

Harlan, a moneyed businessman, is bringing an eyebrow-raising amount of his own resources to the race:

Harlan made his money, according to Coon, building up factories across the country and internationally for a wide variety of technologies and businesses. He will report more than $500,000 to the Federal Elections Commission later this month, which is more than what incumbent Scalise reported in the first quarter.

The $500,000 is mostly Harlan’s personal wealth, Coon said, “but he hasn’t begun to raise the money he can.”

Louisiana’s 1st CD is one of the most Republican districts in the nation. With a PVI of R+18.5, it supported Bush by a 71-28 margin in 2004 and Scalise crushed Democrat Gilda Reed by 75-22.5 in the May 3rd special election to fill the open seat. While it goes without saying that Harlan would be an extreme long shot, his candidacy will at least keep Scalise’s money in the 1st District and out of the NRCC’s coffers.

This is pretty remarkable. Despite many prognosticators writing the obituary for the Louisiana Democratic Party after Hurricane Katrina wrought major damage on New Orleans in 2005, Democrats now have three of state’s seven House seats, a top-tier challenger in the 4th District, a potentially serious challenge in the 7th District, and still might score a good challenger in the 5th District. With Jim Harlan running against Scalise, Democrats are making a fight of it in every corner of Louisiana this year.

On the web:

Jim Harlan for Congress

The GOP is facing a deep hole. The McCain camp is in disarray, Mitch McConnell has admitted that there’s no way for the GOP to pick up seats in the Senate, and in the House… well… the fact that Tom Cole is up to Deathwatch No. 9 says it all.

With the Republicans finally realizing that rebuilding their permanent majority is going to be a long, multi-step process, it seems like they’re engaged in some soul-searching about where to start the demolition work. And today’s thought-bubble isn’t about rebranding their line of dog food, let alone deciding not to try to sell poisoned dog food in the first place. It’s about doing what the Republicans do best: manipulating the electoral process, in this case via gerrymandering. This means seizing control of the statehouses in 2010, which is something that we’ve already talked about at length at Swing State Project.

Sam Stein at HuffPo has the dirt.

“The 2010 elections are almost as important or equally important as the elections this year. After redistricting in 2011, the governors are going to have a huge influence in determining the political makeup of this country,” said Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association. “We could feasibly see 25 to 30 congressional seats swing as the result of redistricting. And the state legislatures and governor could determine that swing. Can the National Republican Congressional Committee make a statement like that with a straight face? It would be harder for them.”

Now it may not be surprising to see the spokesperson for the Republican Governors Association doing the over-selling of the importance of the role of governors in the redistricting process; after all, the RGA has funds to raise, and they need a fresh new angle to do so in an environment where GOP donors are increasingly sitting on their wallets while looking for a sign of a pulse.

But he’s got a point: in many of the states where new House seats will be added or lost via the 2010 census, there’s also a 2010 governor’s race… California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada among the gainers, and Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania among the losers. (Plus one likely lost seat in a state with its gubernatorial race this year: Missouri, where luckily we’re on track to pick up the governor’s seat.)

Now, of course, the governor doesn’t actually draw the lines (that’s generally the legislature’s job, with disputes usually winding up in the courts rather than on the governor’s desk). But via veto power in some states, or redistricting commission appointment in other states, the governor has a huge role in the process.

And while it’s easy to be sanguine about many of these 2010 governor’s races (is there any Republican in California who can retain the governor’s seat post-Arnie?), don’t underestimate the Republicans’ ability to fight back with their favorite methods when backed against the wall:

“In the worst case scenario, 2010 would be the first, most important evidence that there is life in the Republican Party,” said Craig Shirley, a longtime Republican strategist. “The elections that year will be vitally important because it will put on stage the worst creative skills of ever politician… Members of Congress aren’t bright about handling Social Security, Medicare and the budget but they are astonishing bright at self-preservation… and drawing favorable [political] districts.”

“Use It or Lose It” legislation fails to reach two-thirds majority.

On June 26th in response to ongoing calls to allow oil drilling off the coast of the United States and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Democratic members of Congress offered “Use It or Lose It” legislation to mandate that oil companies either drill on federal land they have leased or relinquish the right to do so.  Currently, oil companies have dormant leases to over 68 million acres in the western United States and Alaska that are available for immediate drilling and exploration that, according to Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md) “contains over 100 billion barrels of oil”.

While the vote was 223 for and 195 against, it failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed for passage under shortcut parliamentary rules.  For the record, all Democratic members of the Pennsylvania delegation voted for “Use It or Lose It” while all Pennsylvania Republicans voted against with the exception of Rep. John Peterson who did not vote.

One would think with leaders such as President Bush, Senator John McCain and many Republican members of Congress calling for more domestic drilling that oil companies would be rushing to tap the 68 million acres they already have access to.  Also, with the overwhelming emphasis placed on the idea of increased domestic drilling, the “Use It or Lose It” bill would have received bipartisan unanimous approval.  

It appears the calls for increased drilling offshore and in ANWR are nothing more than an election year maneuver to keep the American people from realizing the failures of the Bush Administration and the former Republican controlled Congress to enact an energy policy.  While the Republicans had total control of the White House and both houses of Congress from 2001 to 2007 they did nothing to enact meaningful legislation that could have averted the oil crisis.  

Oil prices continue to climb and American citizens are feeling the pinch of higher gas prices.  Yet, 68 million acres with over 100 billion barrels of oil remain untapped.  When called upon to help the American people, 195 members of Congress failed to help the people they were elected to represent.  Voters need to remember this on November 4th when they can decide if they want more of the same or something better.

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Campaign Team Welcomes Jennifer Anderson

The McCracken for Congress campaign welcomes Jennifer Anderson of Kersey, Elk County to the campaign team.  Jennifer served as Elk County Director of Elections and Voter Registration for many years and is currently working for the Auditor General’s office under Jack Wagner.  Jennifer is going to handle coordinating the campaign in Elk County along with compiling voter registration data and past election results from throughout the 5th Congressional District.  Jennifer will be assigned the dual titles of Elk County Coordinator / Data and Information Director.  

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Upcoming Events for the Campaign:

The following fundraising events are scheduled:

Thursday July 17th – Clearfield

McCracken for Congress Dinner

5:30 to 7:30 PM – Lawrence Township Fire Company Social Hall – Mill Road Clearfield

Cost – $20 per person

Event catered by The Country Butcher – Door Prizes

Friday July 18th – Tioga County

McCracken for Congress Picnic

4-8 pm – Hills Creek State Park, Crabapple Pavilion

Cost – $10.00 per person, $18.00 per couple, $25.00 per Family

Hot Dogs, salads, desserts and water, iced tea and lemonade to be served.

RSVP – Ann Gazda

Sunday July 20th – Lock Haven – Clinton County

McCracken for Congress Dinner

3:30 to 5:30 PM – Sons of Italy Hall – Downtown Lock Haven

Cost – $20 per person.

After dinner, although not an official part of the campaign event, people are encouraged to take part in the concert held at the riverfront amphitheatre which will feature a performance from a band featuring classic rock. NOTE – bring lawn chairs in case the stands are filled.

Please contact mccrackenforcongress@verizon.net for additional details on the above events.

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Weekly Event Wrap Up: It was a busy week for parades with the 4th of July holiday.  Kelly, Amanda and I participated in the Osceola Mills parade in the morning on July 4th then it was on to Brockway where we met up with Jefferson County Commissioner Jeff Pisarcik and his family for the annual Brockway parade.  Saturday morning I traveled to Lewistown to have breakfast with the Mifflin County Democratic Women’s Club and later in the day it was on to Bellefonte where Kelly, Amanda and I joined up with Tim Wilson, Jayson Harpster and a pickup full of Obama supporters for the Bellefonte parade.  With these 3 long parades, it is estimated that Amanda and I tossed approximately 150 pounds of candy over the 3 day weekend.

Campaign Events for the upcoming week:  This week I’ll be attending Democratic meetings in DuBois on Monday evening and Potter County on Tuesday evening.  Saturday will be busy with possible visits to Clarion County for the Tri-County Farm Bureau Town and Country Day and to Philipsburg for the Heritage Days Parade.  

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

NM-Sen:

     Tom Udall (D): $2.1 million raised

IL-10:

     Dan Seals (D): $635K raised (press release)

MN-01:

     Brian Davis (R): $292K raised + $100K loan; $377K CoH

     Tim Walz (D-inc): $430K raised; $1.2 million CoH

VA-Gov:

     Brian Moran (D): $1.4 million raised; $800K CoH (since 1/1)

Previous posts:

2Q Fundraising Results Thread | …Stood Still | How I Learned To Stop Worrying…

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

The Tom Udall fundraising machine is still running strong, with no signs of stopping — if anything, the fundraising efforts are gaining steam.

Democratic candidate Tom Udall has raised over $2.1 million in the second quarter for his Senate run according to a press release from his campaign.

In the second quarter, which ended at the end of the day on June 30, Udall raised more than he had in any other quarter so far.

“We are so grateful to Tom’s strong, statewide base of committed supporters for making this our best fundraising quarter so far,” said Udall campaign manager Amanda Cooper in a press release. “Because of their generous support our campaign is able to knock on thousands of doors, have a strong statewide presence, and dominate the airwaves with hard-hitting TV ads.”

Udall’s most recent ad is “Tragedy” which speaks about his work on DWI laws.  The ad also invokes the infamous Gordon House crash where House killed four people while driving drunk nearly 20 years ago.

Since the May 14 pre-primary reporting deadline, Udall raised nearly $1.5 million. He had raised a little less than $640,000 between April 1 and May 14.

The campaign was not able to give firm numbers on how much they had spent in the quarter but will be able to do so when they file.  The filing deadline for all U.S. House and Senate races is July 15.

Udall’s previous quarterly high in fundraising was $1.3 million in the first quarter of this year.  In both the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, Udall outraised both of his Republican opponents, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  Steve Pearce won a close primary election over Wilson, while Udall was unopposed.

Chris Smith says that he wants to run on his record in Congress. Unfortunately, there are parts of his record that voters may find less than appealing.

Chris Smith donated $2,000 to the reelection campaign of corrupt Congressman Rick Renzi. He made the contribution on May 16, 2007, nearly a month after the FBI raided the Renzi family insurance business for additional evidence. (Chris Smith, July Quarterly Disbursement Report)  

On April 19, 2007 the FBI raided the Renzi office as part of well known investigation into Renzi’s role in a government land-swap. Renzi used his government position to influence the deal, collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars in payoffs.

Chris Smith cannot claim ignorance. Renzi’s corruption was very public and forced him to resign from the House Intelligence Committee. The scandal generated national attention because Attorney General Alberto Gonzalez had previously fired the federal prosecutor who opened the investigation in 2006. Renzi has since been indicted on 35 counts of corruption. (Phoenix Business Journal, April 20, 2007 Washington Post, Feb 23, 2008)  

Why did Chris Smith feel it was important to give cash to an obviously corrupt Congressman? No other Member of Congress made such a show of solidarity. We know Smith went out of his way to show his support, because Renzi was the only campaign to receive a contribution from Smith during the reporting period.

“Chris Smith has the wrong priorities. Instead of focusing on high gas prices and our struggling economy, Chris Smith decided to spend time making a political contribution to a Congressman facing federal indictment on corruption charges.” said Josh Zeitz Campaign Manager Steve D’Amico.