Month: July 2008

Check this out:

Democratic voter registration is up sharply in southwestern Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, and political analysts said Friday that Republican U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays may face the toughest challenge of his career.

…

Since Jan. 1, 11,329 new Democrats have registered in the 17-town district. Only 3,462 Republicans have signed up so far this year and only 8,299 unaffiliated voters.

Shays beat 2006 Dem nominee Diane Farrell by 7,060 votes. According to this article, new Dem registrations outstrip Republican sign-ups in the district by 7,867. Keep in mind, though, that during the last presidential election, Shays beat Farrell by double his 2006 margin, or 14,160 votes.

Nonetheless, this is troubling news for Republicans and good news for us. Combined with a potential spike in African American turnout (blacks make up 11% of the district’s population), this could finally spell the end for Chris Shays.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.

Rasmussen (7/24, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):

Tom Udall (D): 59 (58)

Steve Pearce (R): 34 (30)

(MoE: ±4%)

I’m guessing Tom Udall and Mark Warner are now in a bit of friendly competition to see who can beat their sad-sack opponents by a bigger margin, because Udall just keeps upping his percentage. Pearce did regain some ground this month, although his numbers aren’t as high as the 37 he posted in May or the 40 he posted in April.

Check out the favorables, too: Udall is at 66% very or somewhat favorable, 28% very or somewhat unfavorable. Pearce is at 46% very or somewhat favorable, 48% very or somewhat unfavorable. I don’t think any amount of advertising is going to move those numbers enough to make a difference (not that the NRSC is going to be able to make the effort).

It’s a miracle: the Bill Sali team has finally filed its 2Q fundraising report with the FEC. Combining those numbers (which cover the period from 5/8 through 6/30) with their pre-primary report, Sali raised $229K for the quarter and has $250K on-hand. Of course, when it comes to Bill “Brain Fade” Sali, not everything can go smoothly:

Sali for Congress has completed the July 15 quarterly filing.  However, in reviewing the report, we have found that the Column B Election cycle to date numbers are incorrect.  If fact, the cycle to date numbers $1,032,555.70 are identical to the 30 Day Post General 2006 report.  We have no way to explain this anomaly.

Allow me to do the math for them: Bill Sali’s correct cycle-to-date number is $656,506.36.

Senate Guru is on strike!  What are the Guru’s demands?  To get the Guru back to blogging, we need to raise seven twenty-dollar bills each for red state Democratic Senate candidates Jim Martin, Jim Slattery, and Ronnie Musgrove on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page.  Your Andrew Jacksons will go toward a great cause: dislodging Shameless Saxby Chambliss, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, and ethically questionable Roger Wicker from the U.S. Senate.  So, please, this weekend, send your twenties to these competitive Democrats in red states via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and get the Guru back to blogging!

July in Oklahoma heats up, especially in election years.

With the primary election four days away, Andrew Rice’s campaign is getting more intense.  We took it to the next level on Monday by launching our first TV ad, called “Leader.”  This 30-second ad has received great feedback from all corners of Oklahoma.

Here’s the ad; more on the heat below the fold.

The ad demonstrates one thing clearly: Sen. Rice is a unique candidate in a unique election year.  He is gaining ground on Jim Inhofe by fighting the insurance industry to improve patients’ rights, opposing the War in Iraq, promoting ways to break America’s addiction to oil, and guaranteeing that he will not trample on the privacy rights of American citizens.

Though his background and message are catching on among voters, the biggest obstacle in our race right now is name ID.  From Kos’ baseline poll in mid-June:

So what is keeping Rice down? Name ID.

 Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Andrew Rice?

 Not sure: 52

Less than half of Oklahoma voters know who Rice is, but over 50 percent will consider voting for someone not named Inhoffe.

From the feedback we’ve gotten, the ad is effectively introducing voters to Sen. Rice – and they’re buying into the campaign.

Right now is a critical moment in our campaign to defeat Jim Inhofe and to send Andrew Rice to the Senate. We’re building name ID and building excitement for our race by going up on TV.  We’re going to have a tremendous showing at the polls on Tuesday, and we’re going to build from that victory to a great win in November.

We’re trying to raise $35,000 to stay on the air a week longer than planned.  Can you help us out?  A few dollars toward TV now can make this race competetive in fall.  Our internal polls show that once people know Andrew and his message, he beats Inhofe by a wide margin.

So please help us raise $35K to raise Andrew’s name ID.  July’s hot, but the next few months will only get hotter in this campaign.  We’re building toward victory on November 4th, but we need resources now to keep it up.

Best,

Karina Henderson

Rice for US Senate

Which GOP crumb-bums do you most want to see lose in November?

Also: if you didn’t get the chance yet, be sure to check out the SSP Cash Power Rankings for House and Senate challengers this year.

Tomorrow Saturday July 26 marks the beginning of the 100 Days to Victory campaign. I’m calling on anybody and everybody across the country to help Scott Harper in IL-13 by phonebanking for half an hour calling just 5 people from a list of names and numbers and a script we’ll send you via email or fax. This is an excellent opportunity for newbies to get their feet wet volunteering for a campaign and you don’t have to be anywhere near Illinois to participate. You don’t need any campaign experience to help. If you know how to use a telephone that’s good enough. Of course if you’re an experienced activist who wants to do more you can make as many calls as you want and we’ll also be canvassing and phonebanking from many locations across the district. If you’re close by campaign HQ in Naperville we’re meeting at 1pm for a group photograph. We’re gonna have with free pizza, so bring the kids and we’ll have a great time.  

So read on for details about why you should spend a little time tomorrow and links to how you can help.  

We’ll be identifying voters which means we’re simply asking them a few questions to discern their political leanings. There’s no persuasion involved, we’re not “selling” the candidate and most folks are more than happy to answer our questions.

Now why should you get involved in this race? Well first of all I met Scott at Yearly Kos last summer. He was looking to get involved in politics after a successful business and academic career and he figured there was no better place to start. I invited him to our local township Dem meeting where our leadership recruited him to run in the 13th. Scott is a smart dedicated Democrat with a lot of real world experience who will help President Obama end the occupation of Iraq and rebuild our country. You can look up more of his bio and positions here.

Harper outraised 10 year incumbent, and Bush favorite Judy Biggert in the second quarter. He’s also already outraised her four previous Dem challengers combined and beat her and her even more wingnuttery primary challenger (is wingnuttery a word? if not I just coined it, so there Colbert) together in the primary by 25,000 votes on Super Tuesday. CQ, a little behind the times imo has just uprated this seat from “safe repub” to “repub favored”. From what I’ve seen and heard canvassing and phonebanking since March it’s a toss up right now. With Obama and Durbin at the top of the ticket I think we’re have a better than even chance. The point is, this is no quixotic campaign, we’re doing what it takes to win this race, not just show.  

Two weeks ago on July 13th Harper’s campaign organized the biggest canvassing event Dems have ever seen in IL-13. In July no less. This was a tremendous effort, we put a lot into it, phonebanking for weeks on end to get volunteers to give up a Saturday in midsummer to come out and canvass with us.

The poor field manager Rich who we’ve been working like a sled dog finally got some time off afterward and spent a long weekend with his buds at the Maryland shore burning off a few brain cells and recharging his batteries. I’m happy to report he’s back at work, sending out emails and holding two phone conversations at once while trying to get the printer working with his toes. Well ok, maybe that’s an exaggeration but not much of one. Everybody at the HQ is working their butts off. And Rich hasn’t walked into a wall even once since he came back so that’s a real positive development. So why do are we doing this again so soon you may ask? Aren’t we running the risk of burning ourselves out before the playoffs start?

Well in case you haven’t heard the DCCC has announced a contest, the 100 Days to Victory Challenge, inspired I’d like to think by our success a couple weeks ago, calling on all Dem House challengers to see who can attract the most volunteers to their campaign for one day: tomorrow.

The winner gets a email blast to the 3 million people on DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen’s email list and a whole a lot of respect (not to mention name rec) from Democrats all across the country.

So here we go again, all hands of deck, we’re gearing up again. If you live in a safe Dem district or a red district that’s hopeless this is one race where you can make a real difference. Wherever you are, please sign up today. Scroll down to the bottom of the link below. If you give us your name, email address and zipcode and we’ll get back to you tomorrow with a script and five names to call. Like I said this shouldn’t take more than half an hour of your time and you’d be helping one of our best Dem House challengers with a great shot at turning a longstanding Repub district blue. Here’s the link.  

Just as we did for the House race scene (and as we did last quarter), we present our rankings according to the SSP Cash Power Index for competitive senate races. The main difference is that we include open seats in this chart; where there is no incumbent senator, the incumbent party candidate is used as a stand-in.

Note that the number of races on this list is a lot smaller than last time; that’s because some folks have lost primaries, and also because we’ve left off the races which, at this point, are not competitive. So while it might look like Rick Noriega, say, has jumped a bunch, that’s at least in part because the likes of Greg Fischer and Tony Raimondo aren’t around anymore. Also, Tom Udall was previously ranked twice because he faced two primary opponents at the time.

UPDATE: Chart updated to reflect inclusion of KS-Sen.