Month: October 2008

After insider chatter suggested that national Republicans would be pulling out of the Colorado Senate race, here’s what NRSC Chair John Ensign had to say:

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (R-Nev.) wants to make it absolutely clear: national Republicans are in Colorado’s Senate race for good.

“The Colorado race has closed up, and that’s the reason we’re going to stay there. We’re going to stay there up until the end,” Ensign told an audience at a National Press Club breakfast Tuesday morning.

Well, it turns out that John Ensign is nothing but a dirty liar:

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is pulling out of the battle for Colorado’s Senate seat, yanking its ads from television stations across the state beginning next week, according to an NRSC spokesman.

That decision leaves Republican Bob Schaffer on his own to try and close what some polls show is a double digit gap in the critical closing days of the campaign for Colorado’s open Senate seat.

A video detailing the NRSC’s internal strategy in Colorado was also leaked today:

Benenson Strategy Group for DCCC (10/21-22, likely voters):

Alan Grayson (D): 52

Ric Keller (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Has the recent repudiation of the Republican Party been swifter and harsher anywhere than Florida’s I-4 Corridor? Judging by this poll, on top of the recent unanswered internal poll showing Tom Feeney in neighboring FL-24 down 23 points, it doesn’t seem like it.

We had a sense of this coming, when Keller barely won his primary against a flawed opponent and then Keller trailed by 4 in a Grayson internal, coupled with huge shifts in registration and demographics in the district. It still feels a little surprising to see it happening, though. (It’s happening at the presidential level, too: Obama leads McCain in this R+3 district 51-41, compared with a 55-45 Bush win in 2004.)

This one is too good.  Roger Wicker is now up with radio ads featuring black voters who say they will vote for Obama and Wicker.  Here’s a partial transcript:

“I’m supporting Barack Obama for president and Roger Wicker for US Senate,” an African-American woman says in the ad. “In the debate. [Musgrove] wouldn’t even say Barack Obama’s name. He’s disrespecting us and taking our vote for granted,” she says.

Another African American says of Wicker: “He represents us and he doesn’t take our vote for granted. He’s asking for our vote. Ronnie Musgrove refuses to say he supports Barack Obama.

This is astonishing, and it says a great deal about the state of the race, at least in the Wicker campaign’s eyes.  Wicker sees the same numbers we do.  The latest R2K poll had Musgrove winning a quarter of the white vote, and on pace to win 94 percent of the black vote if undecideds break like decided voters.  He knows he can’t win if that happens, especially with high black turnout.

With Musgrove garnering 23-to-26 percent of the white vote all year (at least according to R2K), maybe Wicker figured that chipping away five percent of the black vote was more doable considering Musgrove’s white base has held.  So, he is trying to anger black voters by arguing that Musgrove has distanced himself from Obama (even though Musgrove has said he will vote for Obama, and Wicker has bashed him!).

Still, it’s amazing that in Mississippi the GOP candidate is trying to latch onto Obama.  Wicker knows that if R2K’s numbers (and assuredly others) are right, Musgrove is currently poised to win.  

What do you guys think?  Bold move by Wicker and likely to win him more black support, or pure desperation that African American voters will see through?

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

The nightly compilation will come but I couldn’t help noting that the SEIU just spent $750 K in NH and $400 K in OR to help Shaheen and Merkley (or oppose their opponents).  That’s a substantial chunk of change.  The Union is by far and away the largest source of Independent Expenditure in Presidential politics spending an incredible $22 million plus on Obama.  That’s right $22 million.  SEIU affiliate, Local 1199 is listed as spending $3.8 million.  The UAW at $3.9 million ranks second for Obama.

And yes, Grigsby was at it big time again spending against Don Cazayoux.  Wouldn’t you love to know the back story of that one.

One other item of interest.  The Painters Union spent $37,850 on Obama/Biden T shirts.  Wonder if it is for a rally?  What they should have gotten was painter’s caps.

SurveyUSA (10/20-21, likely voters):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 47

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 44

Bob Anderson (IP): 6

(MoE: ±4%)

It seems that every cycle, one Republican hands Democrats a golden opportunity just by shooting their mouth off. In 2004, Kentucky Senator Jim Bunning turned what was supposed to be a blowout into a near-loss after a series of bizarre statements and erratic behavior. In 2006, it was macaca.  And this year, it appears to be Michele Bachmann’s Hardball meltdown.

With Democrat El Tinklenberg surging in both fundraising and now in polls, SSP is changing its rating of this race from Lean Republican to Tossup.

Thanks for delivering those self-inflicted wounds, Kissy Monster.

The SurveyUSA poll is now out, and it shows Elwyn Tinklenberg LEADING Michele Bachmann 47%-44% now.

Granted, that’s still a “statistical tie”, technically.  But still, it’s the first poll out there from anyone, even from internals or DCCC polls, that show Tinklenberg with any kind of lead.

And I love that SurveyUSA embedded the infamous Hardball interview in their polling crosstabs.  🙂

Markos has gotten his hands on the so-called GOP “Death List”. All it really is is a list of race ratings, but the “Washington Whispers” blog hyped it well by highlighting the most pessimistic Republican assessments.

As it happens, the five-tier heirarchy used in this list maps perfectly on to the same rating system we use here at SSP. This is what it would look like if you took the GOP chart (available in full below the fold) and whipped it up SSP-style:

I don’t have to run down all my disagreements with the list – that’s what this is for. But I will make one observation: The GOP is light – they are missing a lot of races. SSP has over 100 races on our House list – this one has just 75. Now, most of our additional races are fairly marginal, but by no means all of them. And in an election like this, you ignore races at your peril.

I’m glad to see the GOP acting so carelessly.

P.S. There’s also a Senate chart, which you can check out on the last page of the document.