Month: March 2009

It seems that no one knows what Tom Coburn will do in 2010, and The Hill thinks he might bail:

Coburn’s exit would throw a safe seat into the realm of possibility for Democrats, who have two attractive candidates available in term-limited Gov. Brad Henry and Rep. Dan Boren.

While Bunning took heat for raising a paltry $27,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008, Coburn raised just $19,000 and had far less cash on hand – $55,000 – than any other senator up for reelection next year.

Coburn might in fact have his sights set elsewhere:

One Oklahoma GOP consultant suggested it wouldn’t even be surprising to see Coburn wind up running for governor, despite his having said that he wouldn’t and the presence of an early party favorite in Rep. Mary Fallin (R-Okla.).

I’m skeptical about any Dem chances for picking up the Senate seat. But I’m delighted at the possibility of Tom Coburn just mucking things up in general. If he does wimp out on a re-election bid, the hapless Tom Cole might run to replace him, and he’d be fun to kick around some more even if he won in a romp.

Field Poll (2/20-3/1, registered voters):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 54

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 30

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 55

Carly Fiorina (R): 25

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 31

Carly Fiorina (R): 24

Chuck DeVore (R): 9

Carly Fiorina (R): 31

Chuck DeVore (R): 19

(MoE: ±5.8%)

The bad news for Barbara Boxer is that she’s not terribly popular; only 42% of Californians are inclined to re-elect her, while 43% are inclined not to. The good news is, there’s nobody that Californians are inclined to like better. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has been considered the GOP’s best bet in this seat (despite his not having publicly expressed any interest in the race), but the new Field Poll shows him getting demolished. This is a much bigger margin than the R2K poll from two months ago that gave Boxer a 9-point edge, but that’s before the state-level budget crisis took him down (and, to be fair, just about every governor) a few pegs.

Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn’t fare any better, and while her prognosis is supposedly good after breast cancer surgery last week, she’s hardly a lock for the race either. The GOP may be left with little-known and little-liked state assemblyman Chuck DeVore. Either way, Boxer doesn’t seem to be facing much danger any more.

Swing State Project doesn’t usually work the Supreme Court beat, but today the Supremes issued probably this year’s most significant opinion concerning SSP’s meat and potatoes: redistricting, the Voting Rights Act, and, ultimately, the composition of the House. The news isn’t good: in a party-line 5-4 decision (plurality authored by Justice Kennedy), the court held that the VRA does not require the creation of new districts that are intended to elect a minority representative (‘crossover’ or ‘coalition’ districts) but where that minority does not actually constitute 50% of the district’s population.

Now, there’s one key detail that makes this not as dire as it first sounds. Kennedy made it clear that state legislatures may still create a district that has less than 50% of a particular minority even if the intent of the district is to elect a minority representative (via a coalition of various minorities, or minorities plus liberal whites). It is simply not required as a remedy under the VRA in response to previous instances of vote dilution. However, the federal government cannot compel the creation of such a district. (Unless, as DavidNYC pointed out, Congress steps into the fray and rewrites VRA section 2. That may be too much of a political football to take on right now, though.)

Bartlett v. Strickland stems from a 2007 North Carolina Supreme Court decision, where the NC court struck down a district that was 39% African-American, created with the intention of electing an African-American, on the grounds that the district violated state law by unnecessarily crossing county lines. Civil rights groups appealed, saying that such coalition districts help to reduce racial polarization by requiring minority candidates to receive at least some backing from white voters.

This just serves to underscore the importance of control of state legislatures (and gubernatorial seats) coming out of the 2010 elections. We could see very different re-districting results coming out of, say, North Carolina, where we will probably control the trifecta (and are thus likely to see, say, NC-08 and NC-13 made safer by additions from safely minority-majority NC-12), as opposed to the GOP majority in Georgia, where we could see unfavorable tinkering with the south Georgia seats (for instance, a worse hand dealt to Jim Marshall in GA-08 as black percentages in GA-02 and GA-12 are boosted back over the 50% mark).

UPDATE (David): It turns out that Justice Ginsburg agrees with me. From her dissent (PDF, p. 47):

Today’s decision returns the ball to Congress’ court. The Legislature has just cause to clarify beyond debate the appropriate reading of §2.

Here’s your daily dose of bullet points…

• TX-10: Democrats have lined up a solid candidate in TX-10, where Larry Joe Doherty came within 10 points of Mike McCaul last year. Jack McDonald, CEO of Austin high-tech firm Perficient, has started an exploratory committee. This fast-growing, Dem-trending district may also be an open seat in 2010, as McCaul considers a bid for Texas AG.

• CA-48: It looks like GOP Rep. John Campbell is about to receive a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenge in 2010. Beth Krom, the former mayor of Irvine and a current city councilor, has made a formal announcement of her candidacy on her campaign website. A traditionally red district, Obama edged out a slight victory over McCain here in 2008, pulling 49% of the vote. (Hat-tip to Gus Ayer, friend of SSP) (J)

• NV-Sen: Here’s one that slipped through the cracks last week: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who’d be the GOP’s best option against Harry Reid, is staying in Washington and becoming ‘director of public policy’ at a lobbying shop. Not that this closes him out from running, but it diminshes the likelihood.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek has been racking up money ($90,000 at a recent Bill Clinton-headlined fundraiser) and endorsements (Florida’s SEIU chapter and United Teachers of Dade) while primary opponent state senator Dan Gelber is preoccupied with the legislative session.

• DCCC: In a big behind-the-scenes move, DCCC executive director (and Pelosi ally) Brian Wolff has left the D-Trip to become senior VP for external affairs at the Edison Electric Institute, a utility-owned trade and lobbying group that has previously given significantly more money to Republicans. (UPDATE: The DCCC’s new executive director will be Jon Vogel, who previously led the DCCC’s independent expenditures arm.)

• WA-08: Here’s an interesting take from American Prospect on what went wrong with Darcy Burner’s rematch against Dave Reichert, written by Eli Sanders, the former politics reporter for the Stranger (Seattle’s alt-weekly). I’m not sure I agree with the final analysis (they say it was mostly a matter of tone) but it’s thought-provoking.

Via the Washington Post:

The Supreme Court ruled Monday that electoral districts must have a majority of African-Americans or other minorities to be protected by a provision of the Voting Rights Act.

The Decision was 5:4, aligned as one would expect.

Goodbye John Barrow.  

Episode 3 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! On the agenda today: Iowa and Ohio.

Previously covered:

Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas

Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada

Again, the obligatory grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.

Much geekdom, nerdiness, and dorkery lies below the fold…

Iowa

The redistricting process in Iowa should be among the least contentious in the nation, with an independent commission redrawing the lines. Of course, Iowa is expected to lose a seat in reapportionment, bringing its total down to four (for a Midwestern state that once had 11 districts, it is quite a sobering development to now be on par with Nevada, Utah, and Kansas in population). Mapmakers last had to eliminate a seat after the 1990 Census, and back then they opted to pit freshman Republican Rep. Jim Nussle against Democratic Rep. Dave Nagle in a competitive eastern Iowa district. It is widely assumed that their solution this round will be a race between Dem Leonard Boswell of Des Moines and Republican Tom Latham of Ames, and my map reflects that conventional wisdom. The new 3rd District, home to both incumbents, would likely have voted for Obama by a respectable, if modest, margin, but in a race between two entrenched incumbents would be a tossup. Given Latham’s proven ability to win easily in a slightly Dem-leaning district, he might even be favored against Boswell, who has had some close calls in the past and will be 78 years old in 2012.

As for the other three incumbents, they should be relatively comfortable. Note that all 99 counties are kept whole, as the commission has long strived to avoid county-splitting.

District 1 – Bruce Braley (D-Waterloo) — district expands in area but stays Democratic-leaning, as would any northeastern Iowa seat.

District 2 – Dave Loebsack (D-Mount Vernon) — but this district still stays an inch more Democratic.

District 3 – Leonard Boswell (D-Des Moines) vs. Tom Latham (R-Ames) — competitive seat, probably voted for Obama by a 7-to-10-point margin, but would be a tossup in most election years. Both Reps. retain their geographical base, but Latham probably has a stronger record of winning over tough territory.

District 4 – Steve King (R-Kiron) — stays the most Republican district, by far.

Iowa was probably the easiest state I’ve yet tinkered with, as counties were kept whole and the independent commission system means that I was able to suspend political considerations to some degree. I really think the final map will not look radically different than the above.

Ohio

This was tough, to say the least, but I feel that I succeeded. I assumed a continued power split in the state; currently, Democrats have the governor’s mansion (under Gov. Ted Strickland) and a 53-46 majority in the state House, while Republicans rule the Senate 21-12. I cannot imagine Democrats winning the Senate in 2010, but the threat of a GOP gerrymander redux is real. Still, odds are against the Republicans winning both the governor’s mansion and House in one election cycle, so for now the smart money is on split redistricting control in 2011-2012. What made Ohio particularly difficult is that the Buckeye State’s is, to date, the only delegation projected to lose two seats in Congress. Even New York is only expected to lose one at this point.

Should migration patterns change in the next year, it is of course possible for Ohio to salvage one of those two seats…but most seem to believe that demographic momentum is still running against the Rust Belt. So presuming a two-seat loss in Ohio, and split power in the remap, the obvious solution is to eliminate one Democrat and one Republican.

Finding population loss in a Democratic area was easy (northeast Ohio, especially in the Cleveland area, has been hemorrhaging population for longer than most of us can remember). I settled on Dennis Kucinich as the member of Congress most likely to face a fellow incumbent, given negative growth in Cuyahoga County, VRA-implied protection of Marcia Fudge, and the improbability of Tim Ryan’s 17th District being messed with for the second decade in a row. Under my map, he would face Betty Sutton in a district whose geography might favor Sutton but would at least give Kucinich a decent shot. Voters would choose between Kucinich’s seniority and visibility, and Sutton’s plum Rules Committee assignment and reportedly good relationship with the Speaker and party leadership.

Choosing a Republican was more difficult; nowhere else in the state are population shifts particularly robust or especially dismal. I decided that a relative newcomer would be a likely choice for elimination, especially if forced against someone with more clout. Knowing that Minority Leader John Boehner simply cannot realistically be messed with, I put current freshman Steve Austria in the same seat as Mike Turner. In a hypothetical primary fight in such a district, anyone’s money would be on Turner, whose Montgomery County base would be kept intact and who would have more seniority and a sweet Appropriations Committee spot to tout.

I tried to protect the other 14 incumbents, since that is typically what comes of bipartisan redistricting plans. There was no way to give Zack Space a Democratic-leaning district without harming John Boccieri, whose seat I assumed was a must-protect, but I managed to give everyone something about which they could breathe more easily. You may particularly like what I did with Columbus. Here’s the map:

District 1 – Steve Driehaus (D-Cincinnati) — comprises all the Democratic parts of Hamilton County.

District 2 – Jean Schmidt (R-Miami Township) — knowing her history of closer-than-they-should-be electoral victories, I took out historically industrial and Democratic areas in the east and gave them to Zack Space and Charlie Wilson (where they seem to belong). Now she would represent an even more heavily Republican, decidedly suburban and exurban, district.

District 3 – Mike Turner (R-Dayton) vs. Steve Austria (R-Beavercreek) — do you dig its compactness as much as I do? While Dayton leans Democratic, Fayette and Greene Counties more than cancel it out to make this a Republican seat. By the way, other than Austria’s home being in the district, he would have nothing to like about this fight. Turner’s Montgomery County base is 99% in-district, and like I said, he has a new Appropriations seat to crow about. If I were Austria, I’d move and challenge Space, or possibly seek higher office. Tough break, but newbies usually draw the short straw when seats must be cut out.

District 4 – Jim Jordan (R-Urbana) — expands in area, stays safely GOP.

District 5 – Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) — now stretches all the way to Medina County because of lagging population growth, but should stay strongly GOP-leaning.

District 6 – Charlie Wilson (D-St. Clairsville) — still a socially conservative, working class and traditionally Democratic seat.

District 7 – John Boehner (R-West Chester) — it meanders a bit, but remains safely Republican. The esteemed Minority Leader would demand nothing less.

District 8 – Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) — as labor-friendly, Democratic, and Toledo-heavy as ever.

District 9 – Dennis Kucinich (D-Cleveland) vs. Betty Sutton (D-Copley) — this is really a definitive industrial northern Ohio district. Its largest population anchor is Summit County (Akron), of which it covers 59%. Following that is 13% of Cuyahoga (Cleveland), 48% of Lorain, and 49% of Medina. The bulk of the district is Sutton territory, but Kucinich’s name recognition and reputation as a liberal firebrand might ignite enthusiasm in such a primary battle. An aside: I know that some Kossacks will hate me for putting Kucinich in this spot, but something in the Cleveland area had to give, and like I said, it couldn’t exactly be VRA-protected Marcia Fudge or Tim Ryan, whose seat was cobbled together in 2002 due to a plan that eliminated Jim Traficant.

District 10 – Marcia Fudge (D-Warrensville Heights) — 55% of Cuyahoga County, still majority-black and the most Democratic district in the state.

District 11 – Pat Tiberi (R-Columbus) — I served both Columbus Congresscritters’ interests here in what is, I think, my most effective turf-splitting in the state. Tiberi keeps his home in-district but now has the conservative suburbs to himself. Unlike before, I sincerely doubt his new district would have voted for Obama.

District 12 – Steve LaTourette (R-Bainbridge Township) — by dropping Portage and Trumbull Counties, it gets slightly more Republican, but still encroaches on 22% of Cuyahoga County, not exactly a boon for a GOPer. With a strong base in competitive Lake County, LaTourette should be fine.

District 13 – Mary Jo Kilroy (D-Columbus) — now contained entirely within Democratic-leaning Franklin County, in a district that should have voted Obama by double digits. See, Kilroy and Tiberi can both win from a good gerrymander!

District 14 – John Boccieri (D-Alliance) — hoping to help Space a little bit, I gave Boccieri heavily Republican Holmes County and cut out a small portion of Stark County (Canton), but to avoid endangering Boccieri, he gets a healthy 35% of strongly Democratic Summit.

District 15 – Tim Ryan (D-Niles) — if it could possibly be more Democratic, it now is, even if by accident.

District 16 – Zack Space (D-Dover) — if there is one major flaw in my map it is that I could not quite figure out how to protect Space. That’s because, in the end, this part of Ohio is tough for any Democrat, so if Space can continue to hold it easily, that is to his credit. There just wasn’t a way that I saw (and perhaps actual Ohioans could have found one) to help him significantly without hurting Boccieri, Kilroy, or Wilson, all of whom represent relatively competitive districts that were designed without their interests in mind. When all is said and done, Space should be fine, but a future Democrat may still have trouble in this district.

In general, I feel that Ohio was one of my more successful endeavors. I believe I avoided embarrassing mistakes of inexperience such as those in my maps for Massachusetts (I thought keeping counties intact was a good move toward cleaner lines, while New Englanders tell me that splitting towns is a far greater sin in that neck of the woods) and Michigan (I intended to force Mike Rogers against Mark Schauer but seem to have put him with Thad McCotter instead). I also protected most, if not all, of the incumbents, and yet managed to keep the map from looking crazily gerrymandered.

Of course, my usual soapbox line still applies: it would be far better if all states used nonpartisan redistricting like Arizona, Iowa, Washington, and other locales already do. Nonpartisan redistricting at its best doesn’t ensure competitive elections, but it keeps the boundaries within the realm of logic, and doesn’t value incumbency for incumbency’s sake; rather, it stresses more practical concerns of political categorizing such as communities of interest and pure geography. Florida is considering a redistricting reform initiative in 2010, and here’s hoping it reaches the necessary 60% (though I won’t yet hold my breath). In the mean time, the system we have is the system we must work with.

Episode 4: Georgia and New Jersey

Episode 5: Florida and Louisiana

Episode 6: Pennsylvania and Utah

Episode 7: Arizona and New York

Here’s the full write up on each race. 

OK, I know we just came off of 2008, and there were a lot of competitive races nationally, as well as in Florida. But, 10 is just a big number. I mean we’ve only got 25 seats in the House, so 10 of them being competitive is a huge deal. Don’t get too excited though, they aren’t all possible D pickups.

2nd (Tallahassee, etc.): Congressman Allen Boyd, a Blue Dog, is being primary challenged by Al Lawson, term-out state Senate leader. Lawson, no true progressive, will run to the Left of Boyd. My prediction: the challenge never really materializes, and Boyd keeps his seat.



8th (Orlando, etc.): Grayson beat Keller here in 2008. Since winning, Grayson has shown his true colors as an ‘aggressive’ progressive. Nothing wrong with that in my book, but will his voters find him out of sync with them? I think it’s less of a question about Grayson but more about who the Rs can put up against him.



10th (St. Petersburg, etc.) Will Bill Young ever retire?



12th  (Lakeland, etc.) Adam Putnam is vacating to run for Ag Commissioner. Dennis Ross, former state Senator, is the defacto Republican nominee; Lori Edwards, Polk county Supervisor of Elections, is the prominent D in the race. Definitely will be a race to watch.



13th (Sarasota, etc.) What is Vern Buchanan doing? He’s talking about a Senate race; perhaps because the Ds will never let him just have the district. If he vacates, watch for a strong race in a tight district.



16th (Palm Beach County, etc.) Southern Political Report ranks this one. I’m not so sure it’s competitive. Tom Rooney will win again, but he will be challenged by a strong D. Just not sure the D will ever be able to take off.



17th (Miami, etc.) Who will replace K-Meek? Whoever wins this primary will be the new Rep.



22nd (Fort Lauderdale, etc.) This is another, ‘What will person X do?’ race. Ron Klein may get into the Senate race. Even if he doesn’t, he will never go unchallenged in this swingy district. But, if he runs for reelection, Klein should sail to victory again.



24th (Orlando, etc.) Kosmas, who just took her seat in January, will face a strong, but yet to be determined, Republican. Feeney had questionable morals, which inevitably led to his downfall. The national Rs will look to the 24th to run a strong campaign and reclaim the district.



25th (Miami, etc.): The 3 Miami area Ds who ran in 2008 never took off in their races like the national party expected. But, expect to see strong races again down in the Miami area. In the 25th, Joe Garcia will likely again challenge Mario Diaz Balart, but just ask Christine Jennings what happens to second time candidates.

So those are my thoughts. What are yours?  

Since Janet Napolitano went to Obama’s cabinet and McCain announced (repeatedly) that he was running for reelection, Arizona has seemed off the table for us.  This, being followed by Sebelius’s choice to join the cabinet instead of running for Brownback’s seat, certainly but a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.  However, I’m inclined to a never give up attitude, and I think McCain is still very vulnerable, even if it would be an uphill fight.  There’s no room for naivity though.  If we’re going to win, we need a very strong candidate……..  

The Mayor of Phoenix, Phil Gordon

(Credit where credit is due: I’m not the only one who’s thought of this, SE-779 floated this idea as well, so hopefully we’re on to something.)

For those of you that don’t know about Mayor Gordon, he’s bound to be one of the best mayors in the country and a rising star in the Democratic Party, and it shows.  He was elected mayor in 2003 with 72 percent of the vote and again in 2007 with 77 percent.  And Gordon’s not just a big name politician.  The guy’s the real deal.  He’s worked hard and used creative thinking to revitalize down town Phoenix, supported light rail, and launced the Works Progress Advancementproject, the heart of which is a compelling public works project.  The icing on the cake?  Mayor Gordon is on record standing up to Joe Arpaio and for civil rights.  And for all his hard work, Mayor Gordon earns tremendous praise from his constituents and drives the wingnuts insane.

Mayor Gordon is not only a good Democrat, he’s clearly a Better Democrat of the mold that’s shown great promise in the West over the last couple of cycles.  But here’s the rub-by all accounts, he’s interested in running for Governor.  The Arizona governor’s seat was lost to the Republicans when Napolitano went to the cabinet and the Secretary of State took over.  There’s no guarantee we’ll get the seat back, and we already have a top tier candidate for the seat in Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, who’s also from the city of Phoenix.  The last thing we need is a rough primary between our two top candidates if we’re going to take back the governorship, especially when we could be working on taking down a high profile Republican senator.

McCain’s loss to Barack Obama and his conduct during the course of the campaign hurt him, so much so that it looked like Obama would be competitive in McCain’s homestate at one point.  Early on it looked like McCain would mend fences and work to keep a top challenger out of the running, but now it’s clear that with Napolitano gone he has no intention of doing anything but being a vindictive old man and an obstical in the path of progressive change.  What’s more, if Gordon were to run, he might not find himself facing McCain.  The far right has always had the knives out for the senator.  Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth gets a lot of buzz for a primary challenge.  In 2004, the Club For Growth (which will surely support any McCain challenger in the primary) tried to get Jeff Flake to challenge him.  And there’s always a few extra wingnuts drifting around Arizona like Randy Graff.  Gordon would have a strong advantage over any of these far-right nuts, but even if that dream scenario doesn’t play out he’ll still have a good shot at beating McCain.

Think about it, Arizona, like most of the west, is moving our way.  Obama will compete there in 2012 and would have competed there had McCain not been on the ballot last year.  McCain lost a lot of support among the growing Latino population in the state with his waffling on immigration, a group that Mayor Gordon has been a strong advocate for.  On top of that, McCain is working hard to further erode support among working and middle-class constituents by opposing a popular president’s economic reforms in a time where people are feeling the crunch.  What’s more, McCain has always gotten soft ball opposition in his reelection campaigns, and we’ve seen that he has a tendancy to flash his temper and trend towards self-destruct when he’s up against a real opponent.  So believe me, this one is doable.  It will be tough, akin to the Begich/Stevens contest last year, but still very, very, winnable.

So, if you think Mayor Gordon should run (and he will probably have to be drafted), why not drop him a line: http://www.mayorgordon.com/con… or throw his name out to the DSCC.

We can do this.  We can beat McCain on his home turf and send him packing for good while electing a Better Democrat and a great ally for President Obama to the U.S. Senate.  But first, we’ve got to make some noise and get him to run.

(Cross Posted at Senate Guru and DailyKos)

It seems that SSP hero and Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture & Industries Ron Sparks has made up his mind on his 2010 plans — and it’ll be a run for Lt. Governor. From Doc’s Political Parlor:

Those close to state Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks hear that he is planning to announce next week his intention to run for Lt. Governor in 2010. One version of the story is that Sparks and current Lt. Governor Jim Folsom have discussed their plans for 2010 so as not to be competing in the same Democratic primaries.

So where does this leave Jim Folsom, the current Lt. Governor? Either retiring or making a run for the top job against Artur Davis in the Democratic primary.

Steal your car, and bring it down. Pick me up… we’ll drive around.