Month: May 2009

Obama picked Sonia Sotomayor to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice David Souter today, making her the third woman and first Hispanic ever nominated for the High Court.  Folks rarely vote over judicial nominations (evangelical voters aside), but she could generate a lot of ripple effects.  Already, the conventional wisdom from several pundits is that this will put Republicans in a bind – they’d be opposing history if they try to block Sotomayor’s appointment.  Yet, as SCOTUS blog points out, there are too many right-wing activists that have devoted too much money to let her slide.  Already, her comment that the high court is “where policy is made” is raising the ire of the right.

It’s also proving to be a diving issue for primaries as well; in Florida, Rubio is more likely going to oppose her while Crist’s support for her may cost him further with the base.  There will likely be more GOPers (and moderate Dems) who will feel pressure from the base to either support or oppose.  There’s also the issue of the nomination’s timing.  This is a critical session for the Democrats – healthcare and energy reform are both on an the front burner, along with backlogged executive appointments, a 2010 appropriations bill, and transportation – and the spectacle of a Supreme Court nomination battle could put a huge damper on the Democratic party’s agenda, giving incumbents less to go home and brag about for 2010.

Thoughts?  Will Sotomayor impact the 2010 elections in any way, or will she just be a blip on the screen by then?  As an aside, what do you think this will portend for the MN Senate recount (my money is on Coleman appealing to SCOTUS for sure now to keep Franken from voting her in).

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters,  early April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)

Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)

Undecided: 29 (41)

(MoE: 5%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)

Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)

Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)

Undecided: 31 (36)

(MoE: 3.9%)

Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.

Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:

PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.

P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.

• PA-Sen: Now that Rep. Steve Israel got chased out of the New York Senate race, the Dems have turned their negative-charm offensive to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. No phone call from the POTUS, apparently, but the DSCC and Bob Menendez are on the case. (Sestak has been dialing down the rhetoric on Arlen Specter in the last week, so he may already be arriving at this decision on own.) Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the ledger, the party seems reconciled to Pat Toomey‘s candidacy. They’ve stopped (publicly, at least) looking for a more moderate alternative to Toomey for the primary.

• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they’re confident he’ll run again.

• FL-Sen: He hadn’t sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won’t run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)

• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn’t come to save them in the Senate race, they’re starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and “Bush cabinet” isn’t exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.

• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon’s son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor’s race. He’s a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn’t get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.

• NC-08: The NRCC’s plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who’s never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn’t have made as much sense.)

• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who’s currently the state GOP’s “minority outreach director.”

Blanche Lincoln catches a break:

Former interim U.S. Attorney and Karl Rove aide Tim Griffin says he’s no longer considering running for the Republican nomination to challenge Sen. Blanche Lincoln next year.

Griffin said Sunday that he’s focused on his other responsibilities, including his service in the U.S. Army Reserves’ Judge Advocate General’s Corps as a major. Griffin told The Associated Press that he thinks Lincoln, a Democrat seeking a third term, is still vulnerable and will keep a close eye on the race.

Who knows what “keep a close eye on the race means” – maybe he’d let himself be dragged back into it in the future. But for now, at least, Griffin is laying down his arms. And it’s a good thing for us, too, as the lone poll of this race showed him quite competitive with the incumbent Lincoln. Griffin has all sorts of baggage, as a Rove acolyte who was at the epicenter of the Alberto Gonzalez-US Attorney scandal – but still, we’re better off without him in our faces, since the GOP bench is otherwise not terribly strong:

State Sen. Kim Hendren, as one Republican operative recently put it, “that Jewed” himself out of the race with his completely inappropriate reference to Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y. State Sen. Gilbert Baker has yet to make up his mind. That leaves Curtis Coleman, the Little Rock biotech executive, who recently formed an exploratory committee. He’s the only candidate inching toward the race.

Lincoln may get very lucky in the end.

Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House.  They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor’s race is a tossup).  A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats.  I’ve been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I’ve determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts.  I’ve drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my “Thumb” districts in a Republican year.  But without further ado, here’s my map.

District 1 (Bart Stupak D):  Since this is my home district, and I couldn’t face the specter of Tom Casperson or some other Republican becoming my Congressman when Bart Stupak retires, I’ve gone to pretty great lengths to make this one safer.  I added the remainder of Bay County, Isabella County (home to CMU) Clare County, and Roscommon County, all counties that President Obama won.  I took out the Republican leaning counties of Charlevoix, Antrim, Crawford, Oscoda, Otsego, and Montmorency.  Overall Obama’s performance in this district goes from about 50% to about 53%.

District 2 (Vern Ehlers R) this is probably the most gerrymandered looking of all of my new districts, but it has to be if we are going to have a Democrat leaning district in Western Michigan.  It takes in the Dem leaning Counties of Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Lake, Mason, and Oceana along the Lake Michigan shore, the Strongly Democratic County of Muskegon, and then tentacles into Kent County and picks up the cities of Grand Rapids, Kentwood, East Grand Rapids, and Wyoming.  Barack Obama won this district 57.2-41.1 giving it a nice, healthy PVI of D+4.3. Vern Ehlers likely would not be reelected to this district.

District 3 (Fred Upton R + TBD [successor to Pete Hoekstra] R) I’ve combined the old 2nd and 6th districts to form this heavily Republican District.  It takes in Ottawa, Allegan, Van Buren, Northern Berrien, and suburban Kent Counties.  Whoever succeeds Pete Hoekstra next year would probably be favored in a Primary against Upton, who is somewhat too moderate for this very conservative district.

District 4 (Dave Camp R) another one of my heavily Republican districts, this one takes in some of the rural and conservative Counties in Northern and Central Lower Peninsula, but it is based in Midland and Traverse City (Grand Traverse County) Barack Obama only won 2 counties in this new district, Gratiot and Clinton.  Dave Camp’s home in Midland is preserved in the new 4th.

District 5 (Open, leans D)  The new 5th district is the one that I would be least confident of us holding in a Republican year, but still in a neutral year it favors us. It has a PVI of about D+2-3 and it includes the Democratic County of Saginaw, about 2/3 of staunchly Democratic Genesee county (minus the city of flint) the Dem leaning Shiawassee County, sparsely populated Republican Counties in “the Thumb” and Tossup St. Clair County. Luckily former Democratic Congressman James Barcia’s home in Bay City is not in this district, for we really could get a more progressive Congressperson from this district. (State Sen. John Gleason, perhaps?)

District 6 (Mark Schauer D) I increased the Democratic performance in this district by drawing strongly Democratic Kalamazoo County out of Upton’s district and into this one.  I also added tossup county Cass and the Democrat leaning portions of Berrien County.  I took out Jackson and Lenawee County as well as the portion of Washtenaw that was in this district.

District 7 (Open, Democrat) It’s high time that Lansing is put into a Democratic district again, and that’s just what I’ve done.  This new district is L shaped and contains Ingham, Jackson, Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe Counties.  Barack Obama won all these counties, except Hillsdale. Obama won the district 56.4-41.9 giving it a 2008 PVI of D+3.5.  If I had to guess what Democrat might win this district, I’d say State Rep. Barb Byrum (daughter of 2000 candidate Diane Byrum), State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (distinction of being the “most liberal” Senator), or Lansing mayor and Former state Senator Virg Bernero.

District 8 (Gary Peters D) I’ve made this one a bit more Democratic by removing the cities of Rochester and Troy while adding Berkley, Southfield, and the rest of Waterford Township.  Removing the city of Troy also removes a potential future challenger to Peters, State Rep. Marty Knollenberg (son of Joe Knollenberg).  This district should be safe for Peters or a future Democrat if he runs for higher office.

District 9 (Candice Miller R + Dale Kildee D)  In 2002, Republicans drew David Bonior’s (D) Congressional District http://factfinder.census.gov/s… much more Republican, forcing him to retire or face certain defeat at the hands of their preffered candidate, Secretary of State Candice Miller.  It’s payback time.  I’ve drawn the most Democratic parts of Macomb County, including Miller’s home, into a district with exurban Republican Lapeer County, as well as the 90-10 Obama city of Flint, and other staunchly Democratic portions of Genesse County.  This includes Dale Kildee’s home, but he’ll be in his eightees by 2012 so he probably won’t be the one running against Miller, if Miller runs at all.

District 10 (Mike Rogers R) The last Republican district that I drew, the 10th includes fast growing and largely Republican Livingston County (home to Mike Rogers), Northern and Western Oakland County, and Shelby township in Macomb County. I considered drawing Livonia (Thad McCotter’s home) into this district as well, but I don’t want there to be any chance that he returns to Congress

District 11 (Sander Levin D) This distric largely reverts to it’s pre-2002 boundaries.  It now would contain all of Sterling Heights, Warren, Troy, Clawson, and Royal Oak, along with the most Democratic south Oakland Suburbs.  This district would be safe for Levin’s successor (hopefully state Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton).

District 12 (Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrict D) Doesn’t change much except that it moves farther south and includes all of Dearborn.  It’s still majority African American and very strongly Democrat.  The only problem with the configuration of this district is that John Dingell lives in Dearborn.  If he is still serving in 2012 (which I doubt) a tendril can be drawn from the 14th District to pick up his home so that he wouldn’t be drawn into Kilpatrick’s district.

District 13 (John Conyers D + Thad McCotter R) Contains all of Northern Detroit and also reaches all the was west to include Redford Township, Livonia, Northville and Plymouth.  There’s no way Thad McCotter could win this majority African American Detroit District.  Safe for Conyers and his successors.

District 14 (Open D) This one looks very much like Lynn River’s old district http://factfinder.census.gov/l… and would probably elect an Ann Arbor Democrat (State Sen. Liz Brater, fmr. State Rep. Chris Kolb, who would be the first openly gay congressman from Michigan, or maybe even Rivers if she wants to get back into politics.) Also includes a large portion of Suburban Wayne County taking in the Democratic cities of Canton and Westland. If John Dingell is still serving and runs for re-election in 2012, then a tendril will have to be drawn to include his home in Dearborn, but when he finally retires it will probably elect someone more progressive.  Obama won this district 64.5-32.6.

What does everyone think of my map? Suggestions, corrections, questions, comments? I want to hear them.

Let’s hear it.

From The Hill :

Cornyn … acknowledged that retiring Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.), … could resign early.

sources close to Martinez said he might very well exit early and is actively looking for jobs for his post-Senate career. They say that if a great opportunity presented itself that required him to resign early, he would do just that.

“He has been looking for a job, and he has been telling all his friends, for a while, that if the right opportunity came along he would consider leaving before his term was up,” said a Florida Republican source.

A GOP aide said plainly: “Mel is going to do what’s best for Mel.”

At that point, Governor and Senate-candidate Charlie Crist would have an opportunity:

… Crist could use the (replacement appointment) decision to bolster his standing with groups like Cuban-Americans. It’s unlikely Crist would resign his post and have the lieutenant governor appoint him to the seat.

If he appoints a caretaker Cuban-American, I don’t see how that could backfire.

If Crist self-appointed himself, and ran as the sitting Senator, that could seem tawdry. But more importantly, it would force him to cast actual votes. And everyone would find out: would he fall in line with the minority block, or vote more independently.

And it could also be dependent on just when the opening would happen:

before filing papers are due, or

after that but before the primary, or

after that but before the general election.

And at some point on the calendar he’s undoubtedly allowed to just leave it vacant until the next Senator is sworn in (which he’s hoping is himself, of course)

This isnt of much consequence from a strictly strategic political perspective, but is a story I felt compelled to share with the SSP community.

An African-American, James Young, was elected Mayor (on Tuesday, I imagine) of Philadelphia, MS.  

Whats remarkable about this election was not only did he beat out a 3-term white incumbent Mayor or that he did it in a city that has a 55% white population in the Deep South, but that he did it in Philadelphia – the city where 3 civil rights workers were killed, a brutal, horrific incident that inspired the movie “Mississippi Burning” (An absolute must watch for those who have not seen it).

Even after electing an African-American POTUS just 7.5 months ago, I still cannot help being moved and impressed by this story.  I hope everyone will take a few minutes to click on the link, read the story and watch the video of CNN speaking to James Young.  Truly inspiring (my apologies for all the editorializing).  

ADDITION (not in original posting): Oh yeah and he won by 46 votes in a city of 8,000 people (dont know how many votes were cast unfortunately).

http://www.cnn.com/2009/US/05/…

There’s been a flurry of polling of the Oklahoma Governor’s race lately, showing former Representative (and CFL great) J.C. Watts beating the Democrats in the general, and at least competitive with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin in the GOP primary. Well, today, Watts made clear that he wouldn’t be running in 2010.

“I have observed with great interest and pride the progress my state is making under the bold and innovative leadership of the state legislature. Nothing would give me greater joy and satisfaction than to go work with these leaders to grow and prosper Oklahoma,” Watts said in a statement. “However, my current business and contractual obligations create hurdles that I cannot overcome at this time.”

Watts had recently made statements that left him sounding skeptical about being able to raise the funds, but this is still a bit surprising in view of solid polls. This leaves Fallin an easier path to the nomination. She isn’t unopposed, though; state Sen. Randy Brogdon is in the race, and will be the really, really conservative in the primary, as opposed to Fallin’s merely really conservative.

And there’s one last wild card… Sen. Tom Coburn, who has sounded non-commital about running for another Senate term and has occasionally been the subject of gubernatorial speculation; Coburn will reportedly announce his plans on June 1. The Dems, for their part, face a contested primary between Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson.  

• PA-Sen: Democratic internal pollsters Garin-Hart-Yang, at the behest of the DSCC, took a look at the possible Pennsylvania Senate primary between Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak. There’s no information about the dates or the MoE, but it shows Specter beating Sestak 56-16 (with 16% undecided), not much different from R2K‘s 56-11 a few weeks ago. This falls against a backdrop of coalescing conventional wisdom that Specter has, after a rocky first week, settled down into reliable Dem-ness (although Campaign Diairies offers an effective rebuttal of that idea).

• The Corrections: Two things have already changed since yesterday’s digest: Suzanne Haik Terrell, suddenly rumored to be ready to primary David Vitter, backed down and endorsed Vitter. And in California, Dianne Feinstein walked back comments about running for Governor, saying it’s “very unlikely” and that she’s tired of being asked about it.

• Senate: PPP put together a handy scorecard of all the approval ratings for Senators they’ve polled so far this year. Amy Klobuchar is tops, at 62/25, followed by Tom Coburn and Kay Bailey Hutchison. The bottom 3? Jim Bunning, Mel Martinez, and Roland Burris (at 17/62). The only other Dems in net-negative territory are the Colorado 2, Mark Udall and Michael Bennet (and that’s from that widely-poo-pooed Colorado sample).

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek just got two endorsements as he and state Sen. Dan Gelber battle for supremacy in their shared south Florida stomping grounds: Broward County Mayor Stacey Ritter and West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel. (Of course, Gelber may shortly be in the AG’s race instead, so this all may be moot.)

• FL-16: Speaking of the Florida AG’s race, the DCCC has a top contender in mind for the 16th: state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who instead seems likely to square off with Gelber, and 2006 gov candidate Rod Smith, in the AG’s race). Aronberg’s seat is up in 2012, and wouldn’t have to give up his Senate seat to go for FL-16, although state law would require him to give it up to run for statewide office. The DCCC is talking to St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft as a backup plan.

• MS-01: Nobody’s exactly sure what “national pundits” the rumors came from, but Rep. Travis Childers quickly quashed suggestions in a recent interview that he might jump to the GOP (and the deep minority) to have an easier go in the 2010 election. (What is this, the 90s?) “Absolutely not,” he said. “I’m a Southern Democrat – I vote what’s best for Mississippi.”