Month: July 2009

Previous diares

Summary:

 MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R

 MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R

 MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R

 MT has 1 rep, a Repub.

Possibly vulnerable:

  MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)

  MO-09 (R) (maybe)  

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: MN-01

Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Tim Walz (D)

VoteView 190

First elected 2006

2008 margin  63-33 over Brian Davis

2006 margin  53-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Kline (R)

VoteView 397

First elected 2002

2008 margin  57-43 over Steve Sarvi

2006 margin  56-40

2004 margin  56-40

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment  This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010.  Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Erik Paulsen (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)

Assessment  This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.  

District: MN-04

Location  St. Paul and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2000

2008 margin  69-31 over Ed Matthews

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Obama margin 64-32

Bush margin 2004 34-57

Current opponents Ed Matthews

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

VoteView 11

First elected 2006

2008 margin  71-22 over Barb White

2006 margin  56-21

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  40th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)

VoteView 399

First elected 2006

2008 margin  46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson.  It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).

2006 margin  50-42 over John Binkowski

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)

Demographics  53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Bachmann is vulnerable.  She’s insane.  But she’s already raised $600K.  On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K.  For a challenger, that’s impressive.  I have no figures for Tinklenburg.

District: MN-07

Location  Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 214

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-28 over Glenn Menzie

2006 margin  70-26

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Safe.  OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.

District: MN-08

Location map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative James Oberstar (D)

VoteView 107

First elected 1974

2008 margin  68-32 over Michael Cummins

2006 margin  64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004  46-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Travis Childers (D)

VoteView 239

First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)

2008 margin  54-44

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment  Safe.  Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here.  Easily.  

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

VoteView 45

First elected 1993

2008 margin  69-31 over Richard Cook

2006 margin  64-36

2004 margin  58-41

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment  Safe.  

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Gregg Harper (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  63-37 over Joel Gill

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents Joel Gill

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%

Assessment  Long shot.

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf  map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

VoteView 219

First elected 1989

2008 margin  75-25 over John McKay

2006 margin  80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS.  I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%).  At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.

Assessment  Safe.

District: MO-01

Location St Louismap

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative William Lacy Clay

VoteView 39.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 75-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-02

Location  A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Todd Akin (R)

VoteView 412

First elected 2000

2008 margin  62-35 over Bill Haas

2006 margin  61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-03

Location  Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 153

First elected 2004

2008 margin  66-30 over Chris Sander

2006 margin  66-32

2004 margin  53-45

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Ike Skelton (D)

VoteView 208

First elected 1976

2008 margin  66-34 over Jeff Parnell

2006 margin  68-29

2004 margin  66-32

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 2004

2008 margin  64-36 over Jacob Turk

2006 margin  64-32

2004 margin  55-42

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-06

Location  Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Sam Graves (R)

VoteView 382

First elected 2000

2008 margin  59-37 over Kay Barnes

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin  64-35

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.

District: MO-07

Location map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki

Demographics   86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican

Assessment  This looks like a long shot for any Democrat

District: MO-08

Location   Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 265

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-26 over Joe Allen

2006 margin  72-26

2004 margin  72-27

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  50-47 over Judy Baker

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    31st most rural (54.2%)

Assessment  Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent

District: MT-AL

Location Whole state map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 304

First elected 2000

2008 margin  64-32 over John Driscoll

2006 margin  61-36

2004 margin  65-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant

Demographics    68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.  

CQ Politics has an article that I think all of you would find interesting. Here’s a sample from the article:

As the second-ranking senator in the Democratic majority, Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin of Illinois has the clout to raise plenty of campaign cash. As the holder of a safe seat, Durbin doesn’t need to spend much to win re-election.

So Durbin can donate surplus campaign cash to candidates and political organizations like the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), which received $150,000 last month from his campaign fund. Senators can give unlimited amounts of campaign funds to party committees, and Durbin was the DSCC’s biggest donor last month.

Durbin isn’t the only Senatorial contributor, but he is the most generous. And of course, we all know how important such contributions are.

One of the new initiatives over at the NRCC under Pete Sessions’ watch has been the creation of its “Patriot Program”, a Frontline-like fundraising effort to shore up the most vulnerable Republicans in the House. The first round was launched in May, and now the NRCC is adding 15 new names to the effort. Roll Call has the dirt, but here are the targeted district in sortable chart form:

It’s a bit of a weird list, one that’s a mixture of incumbents in real danger (Bachmann, Terry, Dent) and more than a few names who I don’t expect will receive serious challenges this cycle (Garrett, Jenkins, the Louisiana twins, and Luetkemeyer) or anytime soon (Lummis). While the first batch of Patriot participants came predominantly from Obama districts, the opposite is true for this second round. Only Bono Mack, Terry, and Dent occupy districts that Obama won (though McCain barely won NV-02). Amusingly, birther nutcase Bill Posey finds his way onto the list; you may remember Posey as the guy whom the DCCC could find no warm body to run against in 2008, other than Mike Gravel fan Stephen Blythe.

Also interesting is who ain’t on the list for the second time in a row: Bill Young (FL-10) and Mike Castle (DE-AL). Both are facing strong challengers (though Charlie Justice has some work to do), and while Castle admits that a re-election bid is unlikely, the geriatric Young’s exclusion seems more telling. Or is the NRCC perhaps hedging its bets?

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters, 5/20-26 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Primary:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55 (50)

Joe Sestak (D): 23 (21)

Undecided: 19 (27)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Snarlin’ Arlen finds himself on slightly more comfortable footing in the primary, but the general election is a different story. I can’t tell if the sample’s been skewed a bit in the GOP’s favor or not — Quinnipiac did poll an almost equal amount of Dems as they did Republicans this time, which is not something they did in May (and not something that reflects the Democratic registration advantage in PA), but it’s also possible that these are oversamples made for the purposes of getting a clearer primary picture on both sides. It’s hard for me to tell without being able to pop open the hood. It’d be surprising to me if Quinnipiac fell victim to a mistake that any Polling 101 student would spot, but stranger things have happened.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

Politico:

Republican party leaders chose state Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, a leading moderate in the state legislature, as their nominee to succeed Rep. John McHugh (R-N.Y.) in an upcoming special election.

The eleven Republican county chairmen within the 23rd Congressional District voted this afternoon, and Scozzafava won on the third ballot.

Scozzafava is a pretty rare breed these days — a socially liberal (pro-choice, pro-marriage equality, labor-friendly) Republican, so it’s a bit surprising that someone cut from her cloth could win a nomination battle in today’s GOP. Then again, she was chosen by the 23rd District’s county chairs, not the birther-dominated rank and file, so perhaps some sanity remains intact in the NY GOP intelligentsia these days. That said, she’s going to run into some serious problems with the conservative base, and it seems unlikely that she’ll win the Conservative Party’s ballot line, especially if Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine jumps into the fray. (Update: Just to be a bit clearer here, I don’t think there’s any chance of the Conservative Party endorsing Aubertine, but they could field their own candidate in order to flip the bird to the GOP.)

This also comes on the same day that a significant amount of oppo dirt was released on Scozzafava, who was vetted and courted by Democratic operatives as a potential party-switcher:

But their interest cooled after they found out her brother’s business, Seaway Capital Partners, owed over $192,000 in unpaid state and federal taxes – which operatives thought could be a liability in the special election.

The conservative blog Red State — one of her leading critics — recently posted copies of the liens from the company’s subsidiaries. On her legislative website, Scozzafava is listed as the COO of the company’s investment arm, though she claims she hasn’t had any direct ties to the company since 2007.

Not exactly the best press to receive on your launch date, huh? For what it’s worth, the Republican online wingnut brigade is encouraging its readers to support Aubertine over Scozzafava. God bless those magnificent idiots.

RaceTracker wiki: NY-23

• FL-Sen: Looks like Charlie Crist has decided that, despite mediocre polling and worse fundraising from Marco Rubio, he’s facing a bigger threat in the primary than he is in the general. Crist came out in opposition to the confirmation of Sonia Sotomayor yesterday, trying to shore up what remains of his conservative bona fides.

• IL-Sen/Gov: Here’s an explanation for why Chris Kennedy has been dawdling on declaring for the Illinois Senate primary: he’s considering whether or not to jump over to the Governor’s race instead. This seems very odd… not that he’d have a good chance in either race, but it seems like he’d have a better shot in a primary in an open seat race against Alexi Giannoulias, who has some vulnerabilities, than against Pat Quinn, who’s fairly popular and has the benefits of incumbency. Apparently Giannoulias’s fundraising scared him off.

• MO-Sen: Here’s an interesting tidbit out of Missouri, suggesting that former Treasurer Sarah Steelman is getting less and less likely to run in the GOP primary. Jeff Roe, who ran Steelman’s 2008 campaign, has started working for Rep. Roy Blunt. Blunt still faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Chuck Purgason, though, but he doesn’t pose the same level of threat that Steelman would.

• NH-Sen: This is a big surprise, as he’s been pouring a lot of money into advertising (for his STEWARD organization, though, not as a candidate) and starting to build a staff. Anti-tax businessman Fred Tausch announced today that he won’t be running in the GOP Senate primary after all (or for anything, including the House). Considering that he was lobbing bombs at AG Kelly Ayotte just a few days ago, this is a sudden change of heart. Former Board of Education member and 1996 gubernatorial candidate Ovide Lamontagne may still provide a challenge from the right, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Last night was the vaunted Bill Clinton/Carolyn Maloney fundraiser, which pulled in about $300K for Maloney’s House account. Meanwhile, the Albany Project has an interesting catch in this race. It turns out that there was one question from the internal poll in May that gave Maloney a 34-32 lead over Kirsten Gillibrand that didn’t get released to the public, and only came out in that City Hall News profile from a few days ago: “Asked whom they would vote for if they knew Gillibrand had the support of Schumer and Obama, people chose Gillibrand over Maloney 50-24.”

• IA-Gov: A fifth candidate officially got into the GOP field in the Iowa governor’s race yesterday: little-known state Rep. and pastor Rod Roberts, who represents a rural part of western Iowa. Roberts polled a whopping 1% in a poll last week by the Iowa Republican blog of the GOP primary field; the poll found Bob Vander Plaats leading the field with 46%, trailed by Chris Rants at 16%, and Paul McKinley and Christian Fong each at 3%. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Chet Culver defeats Vander Plaats 48-39 and Rants 46-36.

• NV-02: Ooops, back to square one in the 2nd. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg, who said she’d run against Rep. Dean Heller in 2010, has backed out, saying she needs to focus on the school board for now instead.

• NY-23: The NRCC has gone on the air in the 23rd, launching pre-emptive TV attacks on state Sen. Darrel Aubertine before he’s even a declared candidate for the special election, for voting for new taxes in the state Senate. Meanwhile, word has leaked (perhaps from GOP rival Matt Doheny’s camp) that moderate Republican Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava was in fact under consideration for the Democratic nomination, but that they were scared off by unpaid tax problems associated with her brother’s business (for which she’s listed as the COO).

• VA-11: Home inspection company owner Keith Fimian has decided on a rematch with Rep. Gerry Connolly in the now-blue 11th. Fimian, who can self-fund, lost the 2008 open seat race to Connolly, 55-43.

• NY-LG: A New York judge put the kibosh on David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lieutenant Governor, issuing a temporary injunction to stop it, saying the state constitution does not appear to permit appointment to fill a vacancy in that position. Still, even if the appointment never goes through, it looks like it may have succeeded for Paterson, in terms of forcing Pedro Espada’s hand and breaking the state Senate deadlock.

• OH-AG: As was previously leaked, former Senator Mike DeWine announced today that he’ll run for state Attorney General. He’ll face off against Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray.

• Fonts: Ever wondered about the font that defined the Obama campaign in 2008? Here’s a profile of that “uniquely American” sans-serif typeface, Gotham.

From the Allentown Morning Call:

Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will run for Congress against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent in 2010, sources say, setting up a political battle the likes of which the Lehigh Valley hasn’t seen in 17 years.

The two-term mayor has made his decision clear to Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania and Washington and is preparing to put a campaign team in place. An official announcement is expected soon.

This is a pretty huge score for the DCCC, and Callahan is likely the biggest outstanding Democratic House recruit who’s yet to make a formal decision on a 2010 run.

More:

Elected in 2003 at 34, Callahan has long been viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party. He’s president of the Pennsylvania League of Cities and Municipalities. As mayor, he has presided over a period of huge change in Bethlehem, highlighted by the controversial decision to redevelop the former Bethlehem Steel land into a massive retail and entertainment complex anchored by a casino. Dent opposed the casino plan.

“This is a tremendous recruiting success for Democrats in this district, and it is important they capitalize on it,” said Mark Nevins, a Philadelphia-based strategist and former staffer at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Dent has had an easy ride against a series of flawed challengers, most recently pasting Sam Bennett by a monstrous 59-41 margin while Barack Obama was carrying the district with 56% of the vote, so there’s no question that this is going to be one tough race even with a competent candidate at the helm. Still, with redistricting right around the corner, this at the very least gives Democrats the chance to soften Dent up going into 2012.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-15

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters):

Dan Onorato (D): 16

Jack Wagner (D): 16

Tom Knox (D): 13

Undecided: 55

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Jim Gerlach (R): 15

Pat Meehan (R): 9

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Quinnipiac’s first look at the Pennsylvania governor’s race of 2010 finds that, well, people still haven’t decided on much of anything yet. AG Tom Corbett has a pretty solid edge in the GOP field (as the only statewide GOPer), and Rep. Jim Gerlach may be left wondering if he was safer staying in PA-06 all along. On the Democratic side, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both poll at 16, leaving them way behind “Undecided,” who has a solid majority.

Given that few people have any idea who these guys are, Quinnipiac simply asks a Generic Democrat/Generic Republican question instead of a bunch of different head-to-head permutations. Hearteningly for Democrats, that race is a dead heat, with R beating D 38-37. One other interesting number: Gov. Ed Rendell, who’s termed-out, seems to have caught the same case of recession-itis that’s dragging down all the other governors in the northeast and Rust Belt: his approvals are down to 39-53, in the wake of Pennsylvania’s month without a budget, down from 54-37 from their last measurement in May.

One other thing to think about: former US Attorney Pat Meehan had, for a period of about half a day in May, looked like he was about to bail on the governor’s race and move over to the probably open seat in PA-07, where he used to be Delaware County DA. Meehan batted down that rumor, but with his paltry performance in today’s poll, and now with Rick Santorum (an ally of Meehan) urging him to give a second thought to running in the 7th, you’ve gotta wonder if Meehan is reconsidering.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-Gov

Public Policy Polling (7/17-19, registered voters):

Charlie Melancon (D): 32

David Vitter (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Here’s our first public polling glimpse of this race in several months, and these numbers aren’t too terrible for Vitter, although he actually does worse against a Generic Democrat than against Melancon, leading by only 44-38. However, voters aren’t exactly thrilled with the idea of sending Vitter back for a second term; only 38% say he deserves another term, while 47% say that it’s time to give someone else a chance. Still, Vitter’s favorable scores (44-39) and job approval rating (44-36) are both in net positive territory.

Somewhat disturbingly, Melancon’s favorable rating is 26-32. You never like to see a challenger starting off a race in the net negative territory, but that still leaves him with 42% of the electorate that are approaching him with no firm opinions. And it’s also possible that this poll is a bit off; a March poll by Research 2000 gave Melancon a 43-18 rating, and also pegged the race at 48-41 in Vitter’s favor.

Tom Jensen sees parallels to Mary Landrieu’s 2008 race:

Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.

And speaking of Melancon… it’s been over a month since word leaked that he was planning on running against Vitter, and those in the know assure us that he is definitely in. Melancon said that he would be making an announcement “in the coming weeks”. Just how many weeks did he have in mind?

UPDATE: I forgot to mention that there is also some continued speculation (hope?) among Louisiana’s press that Bobby Jindal will run against Vitter in order to save the office for the GOP, and many are now pouncing on a recent non-answer that he gave about the Senate race as proof that he’s leaving his options open. To me, it looks more like a brush-off by someone in a hurry rather than anything substantive, though.

RaceTracker: LA-Sen | LA-03