Month: July 2009

• AR-Sen: I’m not sure what it is about the Arkansas Senate race that’s making it flypaper for never-before-elected wingnuts. At any rate, former Army colonel Conrad Reynolds, from Conway, announced his candidacy on Monday.

• FL-Sen: The Fix confirms that Marco Rubio will stay in the Florida GOP Senate primary, despite a terrible fundraising disparity and a brief public flirtation with dropping down to the AG race in the hopes of, y’know, not getting demolished.

• IL-Sen: Newly elected Rep. Mike Quigley became the third Democratic House member from Illinois to endorse Alexi Giannoulias today (although the endorsement may not even be necessary if Chris Kennedy doesn’t get around to showing up).

• MO-Sen: State Senator Chuck Purgason has been sending around e-mails telling the press that tomorrow he’ll hold a press conference (at the Ozark Cafe, in West Plains, if you happen to be in the area) where he’ll announce his plans for the GOP primary race against Rep. Roy Blunt. Spoiler alert! Purgason’s own e-mail goes on to say “It is expected that Purgason will announce that he will enter the race…”

• NH-Sen: Here are two items that fall in the “well, duh” file: Kelly Ayotte has set up an exploratory committee so she can consider running for Senate, and Senator Judd Gregg hints strongly that he plans to endorse her.

• WV-Sen: Here’s some good news, not just because we like to see our friends stay healthy but because he’s badly needed for cloture votes: Robert Byrd is back on the job on the Hill, after six weeks of hospitalization and some additional time to recuperate.

• KS-Gov: Kansas Democrats are back to Plan A in the 2010 Governor’s race (not that they ever really had a Plan B): going back to Gov. Mark Parkinson and begging him to reconsider his decision not to run for election to a full term. Parkinson remains adamant, though.

• ME-Gov: Another entrant to the Democratic field in the slow-to-take-shape Maine governor’s race: Portland businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli, who owns a housing company. Former state House Speaker and AG Steve Rowe still seems to have inside track for the Dems; the GOP, by contrast, doesn’t seem to have anyone yet.

• MI-Gov: The GOP primary in the Michigan governor’s race got even more cluttered today, when, as expected, businessman Rick Snyder got into the race. Snyder is a venture capitalist who briefly served as CEO of PC maker Gateway back in the 1990s.

• NJ-Gov: Chris Christie picked Monmouth County Sheriff Kimberly Guadagno as his Lt. Gov. candidate yesterday. It’s consistent with his approach of running a law and order, outsider-ish campaign. Christie supposedly also gave a lot of consideration to picking Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who, had he won, would have created a tasty pickup opportunity in NJ-02.

• UT-Gov: This week’s confirmation hearing of Jon Huntsman as ambassador to China is expected to be a quick affair. He could be in his new job before the summer recess, leaving Gary Herbert in charge of Utah in a matter of weeks.

• AL-07: In the wake of recent fundraising reports, Roll Call takes a look at the race to fill the open seat left behind by Rep. Artur Davis, running for Alabama governor. Corporate attorney Terri Sewell, thanks to her job, seems to have the best fundraising connections, and leads the money chase by far ($173K last quarter). However, she probably trails two other candidates in name recognition: state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. (son of the former Representative that Davis beat in a primary) and Jefferson Co. Commissioner Shelia Smoot, who is also known for having her own radio show. Also in the race are former Selma mayor James Perkins Jr., attorney Martha Bozeman (Davis’s former campaign manager), and businessman Eddison Walters (who racked up 9% against Davis in a 2006 primary).

• KS-02: Former Rep. Nancy Boyda landed on her feet, getting sworn in yesterday to her new job at the Pentagon, as deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for manpower and personnel. This would suggest she won’t be running again in KS-02, which is fine, as she seems better suited for a policy job than one that requires a lot of campaigning.

• NY-23: In other confirmation news, John McHugh’s confirmation hearing as Secretary of the Army won’t happen until after the August recess (although no one expects holds on the moderate Republican to be a problem). McHugh will remain in office until his confirmation, and after that there will still be several months’ lead time until a special election.

• TX-23: Republican lawyer and banker Quico Canseco is back for another whack at Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the San Antonio-based 23rd. Actually, Canseco never got that whack in 2008 — highly touted by the NRCC, Canseco was upset in the GOP primary by Bexar Co. Commissioner Lyle Larson, despite spending over $1 million of his own money.

• Mayors: You may remember businessman Greg Fischer, who lost the 2008 Democratic Senate primary in Kentucky to Bruce Lunsford. He announced that he’ll run for Louisville mayor in 2010, as 20-year mayor Jerry Abramson recently announced he won’t run again.

The field to replace GOP Rep. Mark Kirk in the House is quickly taking shape. First, ’06/’08 Democratic nominee Dan Seals is back for a third try, according to an e-mail that his campaign sent to his supporters (Lynn Sweet has the full text here). Dan Seals is a heck of a nice guy, and he was a prodigious fundraiser last cycle, but it remains to be seen if he’ll enjoy anything close to the groundswell of financial and grassroots support that he received in the ’08 Democratic primary, where he absolutely crushed attorney Jay Footlik.

One thing that could make his task easier, as he attempts this third bite at the apple, is the announcement from state Sen. Susan Garrett that she will be staying put in legislature. From Roll Call:

National Democrats have tried to recruit state Sen. Susan Garrett (D) in the 10th district for the past few cycles, but she has resisted a bid each time. In a phone interview Monday, Garrett said she has decided not to run for the open-seat race.

“I made the decision this weekend, albeit it wasn’t easy,” Garrett said. “I’m here to stay for a while.”

Garrett is close with state Rep. Julie Hamos (D), who she said will move from Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s (D) neighboring district into the 10th district to run. Hamos did not return a call for comment on the race, but Garrett said she would be likely to support her at some point in the campaign.

At this point it’s just Seals, state Sen. Michael Bond (whose underwhelming $86K second quarter haul did his candidacy no favors) and attorney Elliot Richardson vying for the Democratic nod, but it’s possible that more names from local offices could emerge.

For the GOP, Roll Call and CQ both rattle off a similar batch of names:

• Businessman Dick Green, CEO of Briefing.com
• Businessman Bill Strong, former Illinois finance chairman for John McCain’s Presidential campaign
• State Rep. Ed Sullivan
• Businesswoman/ex-Mount Prospect mayoral candidate Patricia Bird
• Lake County Board Member Ann Maine
• Wilmette Village President Chris Canning
• State Rep. Beth Coulson*

Take a look at that last name on the list. Beth Coulson, a moderate Republican, would be a pretty strong choice for the GOP in theory. In an interview with Roll Call, she says that the NRCC has been in contact with her and that she’ll make a decision on the race next month, but her staff doesn’t seem to be on the same page — they told CQ that she will be running for re-election instead of Congress next year. So which is it?

RaceTracker wiki: IL-10

Dan Seals announced his candidacy to seek the democratic nomination for IL-10 this morning.  

With Kirk running for Senate, it’s not too surprising that Seals decided to run again.  But whether his previous elections will give him a leg up in the race will be an interesting development to find out

Here is an article from Lynn Sweet of the Chicago Sun-Times:

http://blogs.suntimes.com/swee…

Forty years ago, one man took a small step that inspired a country. The Apollo 11 mission to the moon was a great moment for America as viewers across the nation, in unison, watched one of our own step foot on an otherworldly body for the first time. America’s potential was limitless.

I still remember the journey of Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin. I had just returned from my own life-changing adventure: a two-year stint serving Ethiopia in the Peace Corps. I served in a country that could not afford to feed its population, let alone educate them, and this loss of human potential still slows progress there today. A quality education is important not just for the betterment of individuals but also for society as a whole. In my decades of public service, I have worked tirelessly to ensure that we provide our children with the highest quality education, because I know that our economic growth depends on their intellectual growth.

The success of Apollo 11 would never have happened without the work of America’s best and brightest scientists. They were the product of our country’s commitment to STEM – science, technology, engineering, and math education. America led the globe in science education, but due to funding cuts and increased international competition, we’re falling behind the curve.

More over the flip…

California is near the bottom in per pupil spending, and it shows. We have great teachers, but they need the resources to do their job and small enough class sizes to give individual attention to all our students. In California’s K-12 education system, 20 percent of high school students drop out of high school. In inner city and rural communities, the dropout rate is higher. This is unacceptable.

California’s education woes are not reserved for the K-12 level. Our community colleges – the entry-point for career and technical education – are seriously stressed and underfunded. The California State University and University of California systems – schools responsible for the cutting edge research that can create entirely new sectors of our economy – are losing state support and on the road of slow starvation. Twenty years ago, we funded the University of California at $15,000 per student. Last year, we funded the University of California at less than $10,000 per student in constant dollars. Adjusted for inflation, student fees have more than doubled at UC and CSU since 1990 and more than tripled at the community colleges.  

We know that if an additional two percent of Californians had associate’s degrees and another one percent earned bachelor’s degrees, California’s economy would grow by $20 billion, our state and local tax revenues would increase by $1.2 billion a year, and 174,000 new jobs would be created. And yet, for the first time in its history, the CSU system will accept no new students for its spring semester. Over 35,000 qualified students will be turned away. Those are our future engineers, our future technicians, our future teachers, our future NASA scientists.

At last week’s UC regents meetings in San Francisco, I heard from students, parents, faculty, and administrators about the strains being put on UC. At this week’s CSU trustees meeting, I will hear more disheartening news about the impact of budget cuts on the largest public university system in the country.

In all my decades of public service, I’ve never seen a situation so dire. That is why I support an oil severance tax to help stopgap some of the worst cuts to higher education. We could generate more than one billion dollars a year for higher education and put our systems of higher learning in a more stable footing. The nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California projects that if we do not act soon to graduate more students, by 2025 California will have one million college graduates fewer than required to keep pace with economic growth. If we don’t defend education today, who will lead our businesses of tomorrow?  

The Apollo 11 mission united our country. Our collective ingenuity, daring, and know-how allowed us to conquer the impossible and place a man on the moon. If we can win the space race, we can certainly win the education race. It’s time we made another giant leap for mankind.

John Garamendi is the Lieutenant Governor of California, a University of California regent, a California State University trustee, and chair of the California Commission for Economic Development. He is a candidate in California’s 10th Congressional District. For more information, please visit: http://www.garamendi.org or follow John on Facebook and Twitter.

After spinning our wheels for months in the recruitment process against GOP Sen. Richard Burr, it looks like Democrats have a strong chance of enticing North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marhsall to jump into the race. In an interview with Hotline On Call, Marshall stresses that Burr, being both “beatable” and “worse than Mrs. Dole”, is shaping up to be an appealing target, but it’s going to come down to money:

NC Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) is seriously considering a run for NC SEN and plans to make her final announcement about a run against [Burr] in the fall. In an exclusive interview with On Call, she said the key to her decision was money.

“Let’s face it, it’s hard to run a campaign in North Carolina,” Marshall said. “You can’t do it without some outside money. So these are the things I’m assessing.”

Marshall said she expected a serious bid against Sen. Richard Burr (R) race would require “in the ballpark” of $15M, the same amount now-Sen. Kay Hagan (D) spent in ’08 to defeat ex-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R). She said she’s about to make her second trip to DC this year to meet with nat’l party officials and donors to “test the waters” on a run.

Marshall, having won statewide office four consecutive times, would be an instantly credible foe for Burr. A March poll from Public Policy Polling had Burr leading Marshall by 43-35… which is a pretty unimpressive margin considering that 53% of voters in that survey had no opinion of Marshall whatsoever. There’s no question that Marshall would have to step up her game for a Senate campaign, but it’s a challenge that she thinks she’s up to:

“Not many people know how to run statewide here,” she said. “It’s hard to get your feet wet here. But I’ve proven I know how to do it.”

But a race for Sec/State — a job which many NCians don’t really understand — is vastly different than a SEN bid that’s likely to get nat’l attention in ’10. Marshall admitted she spent “around” $500K to win her lopsided victory in ’08.

But Marshall said she’s up for the challenge. “I know how to do it,” she said. “I was the second highest vote-getter [among NC Council of State candidates] last time around. I’m a person who can deal with the urban and the rural. I’m ready.”

With the members of NC’s Democratic House delegation reluctant to pull the trigger on a run, and the current pair of prospective candidates (Durham attorney Kenneth Lewis and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham) being complete unknowns, Marshall may be our best bet.

RaceTracker wiki: NC-Sen

In a widely (and rightfully) praised diary profiling the 2010 state Senate elections in Michigan, SSPer Menhen provided a good overview of what we can expect in my home state next year. I don’t have much, if anything, to add to most of what he wrote, but I would like to give everyone a somewhat closer look at one race in particular. This is arguably one of the three most important races of 2009, ranking alongside VA-Gov and NJ-Gov, and could be a better bellwether for 2010 than either of those races.

I am talking, of course, about the special election in Michigan’s 19th Senate District.

(Interactive Map)

MI SD-19 is the race that the DLCC specifically singled out from Menhen’s diary as one that they “will watch very closely.” And in the world of media narratives and post-election spin, a Republican victory might mean bad news for John Cherry, good news for Mitt Romney, a repudiation of Granholm and Obama, and, of course, great news for John McCain.

But that’s getting way too speculative, and as SSP election prediction contests have shown, I’m absolutely awful at that. Instead, let’s focus on what we know about MI SD-19.

Before I continue, I should make a note about the maps that I’m using. One of my hobbies this summer has been getting myself acquainted with Google Earth, yet another step in Google’s plan for global domination through amazingly useful tools. All of the maps used in this diary were generated with Google Earth from cartographic boundary files provided by the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s more, every map is clickable, taking you to a page I’ve set up that will allow you to interact with the map. I think that tools like this could add a lot to blogging and political analysis, especially for those of us who can’t afford to create our own electoral scoreboard, but are still interested in some sort of visual representation of election data.

Also, before we get too far, I’ll add that I do not live in the district, nor do I have any special knowledge, and honestly, I haven’t been following state politics as closely as I used to. In other words, any opinions or analysis expressed here might be completely wrong. But at least I’ve got maps.

This is what Menhen had to say about SD-19 in his diary:

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

For the purposes of this diary, we’re going to assume that both Griffin and Nofs win their respective primaries on August 4th. That’s the most likely result, though if we’re lucky we could see some wingnut action on the Republican side, and if we’re unlucky we could see another Sharon Renier surprise performance on the Democratic side.

A brief introduction to the candidates:

Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek) – Website

Nofs is, basically, our worst nightmare for a special election like this. He’s moderate– or, he is at least very good at projecting that image. Thanks to six years in the state House, 10 years on the Calhoun County Board of Commissioners, and a couple of decades at the Battle Creek state police post, Nofs is really popular in the generally Democratic-leaning city of Battle Creek. The importance of this will become clear soon.

Nofs was term-limited out of the Michigan House of Representatives in 2008. He represented HD-62, now held by Kate Segal (D).

(Interactive Map)

Martin “Marty” Griffin (D-Jackson) – Website

To begin with, let me say that I’m extraordinarily happy to see that Griffin actually has a website. The last I had seen, Griffin was “not sure” if he’d put one up. In other words, don’t expect him to come to the Netroots looking for support.

Griffin served as mayor of Jackson for 11 years. In 2004 he very narrowly lost a race for the state House, only to win the rematch in 2006 and win reelection in 2008. As Menhen noted, Griffin’s base is in Jackson County, where Democrats have previously been weak. It’s worth noting that the city of Jackson claims to be the birthplace of the Republican Party. It’s previously been a pretty solidly Republican seat.

Griffin currently represents HD-64, of which all but Summit Township lies in SD-19.

(Interactive Map)

So we have two state Representatives, each representing hostile territory and yet popular enough to win reelection. Thus far, it sounds like a pretty even match-up.

What kind of a district is SD-19?

Or, perhaps the better way of phrasing it: What does it take for a Democrat to win in SD-19?

As Menhen noted, President Obama did carry the district in 2008, 52.7 to 45.6. Here’s how he did it:

(Interactive Map)

(All election data, except where otherwise cited, was obtained via the Michigan Secretary of State’s Election Precinct Results Search tool.)

Notice that there’s an awful lot of red and only a few patches of blue, yet Obama still won. Most of the townships in the map just don’t have many people in them, meaning that big victories in the small cities of Battle Creek and Jackson (and, to a lesser extent, the other cities) are enough to put a Democrat over the top.

Just to demonstrate, I’ve adjusted the opacity on that map to show how the population is distributed.

(Interactive Map)

Now, that’s not an especially fair map, but I think it makes the point. Battle Creek made up about 20 percent of the voters in the district in 2008 (23,394 votes out of 116,135 total), while many of the rural townships of the district made up only one or two percent. That’s not to say that rural areas don’t matter. Winning big in the rural areas (especially in Jackson County) and keeping the cities close is how to win, if you’re a Republican. Rural votes are just as good as urban ones. But the cities (and Battle Creek in particular) are the foundation of Democratic victories.

That can be seen in then state Rep., later state Sen., and now U.S. Rep. Mark Schauer’s SD-19 victory in 2002:

(Interactive Map)

Results:

County	Mortimer (R)	Schauer (D)
Calhoun	15,673	24,514	40,187
Jackson	16,608	15,159	31,767
Totals	32,281	39,673	71,954
Percentage	44.86	55.14	100

Schauer won SD-19 even more convincingly in 2006– 61-39— but as I remember it (and I don’t live in the district), it wasn’t heavily contested. I think 2002 is better for the current situation.

As Menhen noted, Schauer lost Jackson County, but he made up for it by winning most of Calhoun County, and most of all, by winning Battle Creek convincingly, 66-34.

So that’s the route that other Democrats have taken to win SD-19. Will it work for Marty Griffin?

Let’s look at the electoral histories of HD-62 and HD-64.

First, Griffin in HD-64:

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)	Ross (Write-In)
18,787	18,429	498	37,714
49.81	48.87	1.32

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Baxter (R)	Griffin (D)
14,178	15,703	29,881
47.45	52.55

2006

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Prebble (R)	Griffin (D)
14,454	24,260	38,714
37.34	62.66

It took Griffin two tries to get into the state House, but once he got there, the Republicans weren’t able to field a decent candidate against him. Leland Prebble was not especially strong competition.

Griffin’s first two campaigns, though, are the cause of more worry. Rick Baxter, Griffin’s 2004 and 2006 opponent, isn’t a Mike Nofs-like moderate. He’s a rabid, incredibly frightening far-right lunatic, and an ally and former staffer of ex-U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, whose “worst day” of his single term in the legislature was the day they raised the minimum wage. And all the same, Baxter made the race close. That speaks less about Griffin and Baxter and more about just how conservative much of the district is.

The city of Jackson contains about a third of the voters in HD-64 and about 11 percent of the voters in SD-19. I think Griffin can probably still count on that base, but if a guy like Rick Baxter could win the rest of the district, Mike Nofs certainly has that potential.

Can Griffin carry Battle Creek and make some inroads in Calhoun County? Can he follow the same winning path as Obama and Schauer?

Against Mike Nofs, that’s going to be tough. Let’s look at Nofs’ electoral history in HD-62:

2002

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Dearing (D)
13,619	11,986	25,605
53.19	46.81

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
20,935	18,289	39,224
53.37	46.63

2004

(Interactive Map)

Results:

Nofs (R)	Haley (D)
15,639	13,533	29,172
53.61	46.39

So that’s that. Nofs was elected to three full terms (the maximum allowed under Michigan’s term limit laws), and while he never ran away with it, each time he held even or improved, and each time, he improved his margin in Battle Creek. It’s not that Nofs had to win the city, it’s that he had to make it close enough that his natural advantage in all of the little small villages and towns in the rest of the county carried him over the top. And, of course, the fact that he won Battle Creek in 2004 and 2006 (a strong year for Democrats) was just icing on the cake.

What now?

This leaves us with a frustrating situation. We’ve got the candidate who, on paper, seems like he’d be perfect. His base of support is right in the heart of the Republican part of the district, and he has a history with the voters there.

The problem is, that’s what the other side did, too, and their guy has a history with the bigger city, the one that we generally rely on. It’d be like if our presidential nominee were from Texas, but the Republicans nominated a long-time politician from California. (I feel like that would make for a great seventh season of some sort of television show…)

But all is far from lost. Let’s look at the Obama and Schauer maps again:

(Interactive Map)

(Interactive Map)

There’s a fair amount of territory there that’s not currently represented by either Griffin or was never represented by Nofs. They don’t necessarily have a lot of people, but some of them– especially the townships adjacent to Battle Creek– have a fair number of voters who aren’t nearly as conservative as their neighbors further from the city. The city of Marshall, too, offers Griffin a chance to pick up some more votes.

That’s not going to be easy against Nofs, whose roots in Calhoun County span many decades. Even so, I think it’s possible. It’s also something Griffin might be able to get some help with, as the voters in Calhoun County think Mark Schauer walks on water and recently elected state Rep. Kate Segal (D) 62-38. Democratic state Rep. Mike Simpson also represents the parts of Jackson County that Griffin doesn’t represent, so some good, old-fashioned Democratic teamwork might make this happen.

And in a low-turnout special election, moving your base will be essential. If the GOP base isn’t thrilled with Nofs, that will hopefully give our side a little bit of breathing room. It’s nothing to count on, but it is something.

Possibly connecting to that, there’s also a Libertarian candidate in the race– Greg Merle. From his campaign website:

Man made Global Warming is a complete hoax , can not be proven and is just simply another government scheme to raise taxes on businesses and individuals. […] Our problem is that these enviro nut jobs won’t even debate us on the issue. Their only goal is to loot the American public while at the same time giving China and India a pass.

[…]

Strong supporter of the Fair Tax and eliminating the IRS .

We need to finish up in Iraq and get out post haste, ditto Japan, Germany, South Korea, Kuwait etc. Our Armed Forces have done their job. Besides, those nations hate us anyway. Let’s give these America hating college professors as well as the UN something to really complain about when we pack up and go home.

The Free Market will solve our economic problems if we could only get government out of the way, let leaders lead and creators create.

Hopefully this guy makes enough noise to win over some of those Walberg/Baxter voters who aren’t comfortable with Nofs. Again, it’s nothing to count on, but it’s still something. (You should really read the rest of his issue positions, they’re wonderful. I especially like the link on his Second Amendment plank.)

And on top of all of that, Michigan really does seem to be trending more Democratic in the last few years. Nofs didn’t have to face reelection in 2008, but I’d be willing to bet the Obama coattails would have brought whomever his challenger would have been the 2,000 votes they’d need to overtake him. If Michigan really is becoming more Democratic, Nofs might not have as easy a time as he’s had before.

What will this election tell us?

To be absolutely honest, I don’t think this will tell us much of anything. If it’s a close race and we win, it tells us that Griffin was a good candidate and picking someone from the Jackson County side of the district was a smart move. If it’s a close race and Nofs wins, it means that Nofs was a really good candidate and had a history with the Battle Creek voters. It’s all stuff we already knew, and anything more will just be spin.

We only learn something if it’s a blowout either way, and I’ll be surprised if it is. That said, if Nofs wins with 60 percent or more, I’m going to start to get really nervous about 2010 in Michigan.

Of course, if you’re so inclined, it might be worth sending a few dollars toward Griffin’s campaign anyway.

Here are the June fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (May numbers are here):

A pretty good month for the DSCC and the DCCC, who now both have more cash in the bank than they owe to creditors for the first time since the election. Keep in mind, though, that these nums are a bit pumped up thanks to a modest fundraiser hosted by Barack Obama last month which took in $3 million for the House and Senate committees.

Time to add another district to the Open Seat Watch. From the Chicago Sun-Times:

“I’m in,” declared West Side Congressman Danny Davis by phone from Washington on Friday morning.

Davis had worked late the night before on President Obama’s health-care bill, which passed out of the House Ways and Means Committee just before midnight. But as much as Davis loves policy work, as important as his seat on the Ways and Means committee is to Illinois, after six terms he’s coming home.

“I’m in” means he’s leaving Congress to run for president of the Cook County Board in 2010, a position now occupied by the embattled Todd Stroger, who says he’s running too.

There’s no danger of Davis’ heavily African-American, D+35 district of ever flipping to the GOP, so the action here will be in the Democratic primary. Davis’s former Chief of Staff Richard Boykin has already expressed his interest, but CQ recently identified state Reps. LaShawn Ford and Karen Yarbrough, state Sen. Rickey Hendon, and Aldermen Dorothy Tillman and Ed Smith as possibilities.

RaceTracker wiki: IL-07

• IL-Sen: Today’s the day for Mark Kirk’s official entry into the Senate race, despite the fact that everyone and his dog already knows he’s running. He got one unwelcome piece of news over the weekend, though: a primary challenge, from retired state trial court judge Don Lowery, from Pope County downstate. Apparenty the unknown Lowery doesn’t pose as much of an obstacle as state GOP chair Andy McKenna would have, as Kirk didn’t storm out of the race this time.

• NV-Sen: The Las Vegas Review-Journal’s newest poll finds that John Ensign’s numbers continue to slip. His approval rating is 31%, down from 39% last month (post-scandal, but before news of his parental payoff) and from 53% pre-scandal. Only 34% think he should resign, though.

• NH-Sen: Businessman Fred Tausch launched a subtle attack against likely GOP primary opponent Kelly Ayotte over the weekend, accusing “the governor, the attorney general, and legislature” of putting the state on the path toward an income tax.

• NY-Sen-B: Ooops. Rep. Carolyn Maloney was caught using the N-word in an interview with City Hall News. She was quoting someone secondhand, but still sounds bad out of context.

• NC-Sen: Guess who’s a member of the Run, Elaine, Run! Facebook group that’s trying to get Elaine Marshall to run for Senate? Elaine Marshall! Now I don’t know if that’s a tea leaf that she’s interested or just a friending-someone-to-be-polite situation, but it’s interesting. (H/t possumtracker1991.)

• NJ-Gov: The New York Times reports that Jon Corzine, in the wake of a costly divorce and a big hit to his portfolio, is having raise campaign funds from contributors like a mere mortal. His goal is $15 million from donors, on top of no more than $25 million of his own money. (That’s compared to the $60 million he spent on his 2000 Senate race.)

• NM-Gov: Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez, who we mentioned last week, went ahead and just full-on into the GOP primary for the open governor’s race in New Mexico, skipping the exploratory phase. Meanwhile, investment advisor and National Guard brigadier general Greg Zanetti, who for most of the was the only declared GOP candidate although without seemingly getting much traction, dropped out of the race, citing family concerns.

• PA-Gov: Auditor Jack Wagner confirmed on Friday in a TV interview that he’ll run for Governor in 2010. A formal announcement will come later, he says, but he’s still the first Democrat to sort-of-kind-of pull the trigger.

• NH-01: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has had a nose for bad news in the last few weeks, although “unpaid sewer bills” doesn’t sound quite as bad as “bar brawl…” y’know, unless you’re running as the “fiscal responsibility” candidate. For the second time, Guinta has failed to stay current on the sewer taxes on an apartment building he owns in Manchester (while, at the same time, he can afford to shore up his weak fundraising with a $20,000 personal loan).

• NY-23: This is poorly sourced and slightly incoherent, but a local GOP blog is reporting that Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine did, in fact, get in the race for the NY-23 special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. (UPDATE: The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that the Democratic county chairs in the district have extended their deadline for candidates to express their interest in the race to Thursday, July 23rd at 5pm. Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the county chairs are eager to give the nomination to Aubertine, if he wants it.)

• OH-16: Buried deep in a story about friendly local teabaggers protesting Rep. John Boccieri’s cap-and-trade vote are the names of a couple potential GOP candidates in the 16th, a race that has escaped much of any scrutiny so far. Named are former Canton mayor Janet Creighton and businessman Jim Renacci, who owns the Columbus arena football franchise.

• KY-Lt. Gov: It’s never to early to start thinking about 2011. Steve Beshear chose his running mate for his re-election campaign (as current LG Dan Mongiardo won’t run again, as he plans on being Senator at that point); he’ll run with 20-year Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson.