Month: July 2009

Redistricting Washington and Oregon – hope we get those extra districts

According to census estimates, both Washington and Oregon are on the cusp of gaining another district. Hopefully both states will gain a district because they will be Democratic districts.

My goals are:

– Make the new districts Democratic.

– Make Dave Reichert’s district too Democratic.

– Cross the Cascades only once per state.

– Make the districts look compact and look fair.

The state maps are thumbnails. Click on it to link to a full-size map.

10 District Washington:



District 1: Rick Larsen (D) (blue) (Old 2nd)

Rural-and-small-cities Western Washington

The old 2nd district loses some territory in southwestern Snohomish County, including Everett and Marysville, and gainst territory in eastern King and Pierce Counties. Its population does not change much.

Population Per county:

County New 1st Old 2nd
San Juan 96718 96718
Whatcom 196529 196529
Skagit 118000 118000
Snohomish 139664 332734
King 65772 656
Pierce 38591 0

It is probably more Republican than before, but still Democratic enough.

District 2: Jay Inslee (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Cities/Suburbs North of Seattle

The old 2nd district loses its territory west of the Puget Sound and gains more territory in Snohomish County. Now it’s contiguous, and compact, and still safe for Democrats.

District 3: Jim McDermott (D) (purple) (Old 7th)

Seattle

The entire city of Seattle, plus a very small area directly south of the city. Because the suburbs are also very Democratic, there is nothing to gain by splitting the city among several districts. Seattle is 94% of the district’s population.

District 4: Dave Reichert (R) (red) (Old 8th)

Cities/Suburbs East of Seattle

This district is smaller than the old 8th, and more Democratic. Dave Reichert won’t be able to get reelected here.

District 5: Adam Smith (D) (yellow) (Old 9th)

Cities/Suburbs South of Seattle

There must have been a lot of growth here because this district is a lot smaller than the old 9th. It fills the corridor between Seattle and Tacoma without entering either city.

District 6: Norm Dicks (D) (turquoise) (Old 6th)

Cities/Suburbs West of Seattle

The 6th currently takes consists of the entire western peninsula. The new 6th is a compact urban district along the shore of the Puget Sound from Tacoma to Bremerton.

District 7: No Incumbent (gray)

Western Peninsula

This is the new district. It is everything west of the Puget Sound and north of the mouth of the Columbia, except the urban area around Seattle/Tacoma. Its largest city is Olympia. Finally Olympia dominates a congressional district; 37% of the district’s population is in Thurston County. It should be safely Democratic.

District 8: Brian Baird (D) (light purple) (Old 3rd)

Southern Washington

This district is dominated by Vancouver. Clark County is 65% of the district. This is the only district to cross the Cascades. It takes southern Yakima County and eastern Yakima city. Yakima will be the only county in Washington split between a Democratic and Republican district. I don’t have voting data, but here is the demographic data:

Yakima County 8th 9th Total
Population 132430 102134 234564
%White 29% 78% 51%
%Hispanic 60% 16% 41%
%Native 6% 1% 4%

Southern Yakima is a welcome addition to a Democratic district.

District 9: Doc Hastings (R) (cyan) (Old 4th)

Western Eastern Washington

Strongly Republican.

District 10: Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) (magenta) (Old 5th)

Eastern Eastern Washington

Republican enough.

9 District Washington:





The obvious differences between the 9 District map and the 10 district map are: there are only 4 urban Seattle-area districts, and this time one of the eastern districts has an appendage west of the Cascades.

District 1:

Extends further into the (probably Republican) suburbs of King and Pierce Counties. Now they make up nearly a quarter of the district’s population. So the district is still dominated by its northern counties, still safe for its Democratic incumbent, and should be safe for Democrats in the future.

District 2:

Takes more territory in northern King County.

District 3:

Takes more territory south of Seattle. But Seattle is still 85% of the district’s population.

District 4:

Still a more Democratic version of the existing 8th.

District 5:

Now it includes Tacoma.

District 6:

Similar to the existing 6th, but it trades Tacoma for Olympia.

District 7:

The Baird district loses Olympia and eastern Lewis County, and gains Grays Harbor County. This probably makes the district shift more Republican because even though Grays Harbor is Democratic, it has less population than Olympia.

District 8:

In addition to Eastern Washington, it takes 13000 residents in Lewis County. Lewis County is the only western county that voted for McCain.

District 9:

Just like the existing 5th, but a little bigger.

6 District Oregon:

District 1: Earl Blumenaur (D) (blue) (Old 3rd)

Portland

90% of its population is in the city of Portland. I recommend doing this as long as it doesn’t weaken the other districts too much.

District 2: David Wu (D) (green) (Old 1st)

Portland suburbs

A small suburban Portland district is a good idea, as long as it doesn’t pack in too much Democratic voting strength, weakening the other districts.

District 3: No Incumbent (purple)

Western Willamette Valley and Coast

The several small left-leaning counties in northwestern Oregon usually get split up and attached to urban districts. Now I’m putting them together in their own district. Its largest cities are Hillsboro and Corvallis.

District 4: Kurt Schrader (D) (red) (Old 5th)

Eastern Willamette Valley

I would only recommend creating a district like this if its portion of Clackamas County voted at least 52% for Obama. It includes Salem, Albany, and eastern Gresham.

District 5: Peter Defazio (D) (yellow) (Old 4th)

Southern Oregon

This is an interesting shape, mean to avoid the most rural conservative parts of Western Oregon. It starts in Lane County, including Eugene and Springfield, goes through northwest Douglas County, avoiding as much of the county as possible. It takes in all of Coos and Curry Counties. It takes southern Josephine, including Grants Pass, and southwest Jackson, including Medford and Ashland. It should be more Democratic than the existing 4th.

District 6: Greg Walden (R) (turquoise) (Old 2nd)

Eastern Oregon

All of eastern Oregon plus the rural conservative parts of southwestern Oregon.

5 District Oregon:



If Oregon only gets 5 districts, then at least they will be 4 safe Democratic districts. However it doesn’t preserve the “communities of interest” I created in the 2nd and 3rd districts of the 6 district version.

District 1:

Multnomah County and most of Columbia County.

District 2:

Portland’s western suburbs combined with the rural northwestern part of the state.

District 3:

Nearly all of Clackamas, all of Marion, all of Polk, and the northwest corner of Linn (Albany). Safe Democratic.

District 4:

I’m proud of this one. It starts in Lincoln County (60% Obama) and follows the coast. It takes Eugene and Springfield, as well as Grants Pass, Medford and Ashland.

District 5:

Eastern Oregon and a lot of rural conservative territory in Western Oregon.

Conclusion:

No matter what happens in the census, Republicans should get no more than 2 seats in Washington and 1 in Oregon. Putting Seattle in a single district is a good idea, while putting Portland in a single district could be risky. The idea that a Washington 8-2 plan makes stronger Democratic districts than a 7-2 plan is counterintuitive but it seems to be true.

Redistricting MN: An on the ground perspective

Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave’s Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.

I’m very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn’t mean you can’t get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:

Here’s the seven district map:

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL) Blue

I originally forgot to include Mankato, Walz’s home, in this district and had to do some fancy work with MN-7 to make in in the district, but it worked. This district has three main bases Mankato, Rochester and then the motherload, Dakota County and the suburbs it contains. This should be a significantly more DFL friendly district than the 1st as it exists now.



District 2: John Kline (R) Green

Kline should be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here, though I almost forgot to include his home in Lakeville. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: OPEN (formerly Erik Paulson (R)) Purple

I took Paulson’s home in Eden Prairie out of this district and gave all the GOP parts of Hennepin over to the 2nd. This district is based in Anoka County and will be a fairly 50-50 district I think, but will lean DFL over the next few years if it does not already lean that way. I considered including Bloomington in it, but it just got too messy.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R) Red

Placing Bachmann’s residence here was accidental at first, but too amusing not to go ahead with. This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R) Yellow

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 3rd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Teal?

The old 8th becomes the 6th and essentially stays the same. I reddened it a litle to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL) Grey

Peterson’s district added a LOT considering its low population growth. It expanded to include much of the old 1st district and I had the 6th take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+2-4 district I think, but competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

Now for the 8 District Map

District 1: Tim Walz (DFL)

I didn’t strengthen it much, but some of the GOP leaning rural areas went to the 7th. Walz will be fine here and Obama won the district.



District 2: OPEN (formerly John Kline(R) )

Kline might move here, as this is the heavy GOP seat, but then again, Paulson and Bachman may move here too, since I drew all 3 GOP reps out of their districts. Whoever represents the 2nd could be the lone GOP Representative in MN under this map; I seriously packed GOP votes in here. Carver, Scott and Wright Counties house the GOP leaning exurbs that are the backbone of this district, as well as St. Cloud. It encompasses about half of the old 2nd and half of the old 6th. I took a couple of the GOP leaning portions of the 7th as well. Obama definitely lost this district, probably by about 10 points.



District 3: John Kline (R)

Kline lives in this new version of the 3rd which is based around Bloomington, MN and Dakota County. Obama won this district by a few points and its prolly around D+1. Kline may run here or he may move to the 2nd but this is a lean DFL district.

District 4: Betty McCollum (DFL) vs Michelle Bachmann (R)

This will be a walk in the park for McCollum, and Bachmann may move to run in the 2nd or the 6th, but she might be crazy enough to think she can beat McCollum. This is essentially the old 4th plus a chunk of Washington County

District 5: Keith Ellison (DFL) vs Erik Paulson (R)

Now, some of you may be scared that Ellison won’t win this district. That’s ridiculous. Ellison did better in the 5th in 2008 than did his predecessor Martin Sabo who help the district for decades. Paulson may move to run in the new 2nd rather than go up against Ellison, but The addition of Eden Prairie and Edina to the true blue 5th helps spread some of the DFL love around.

District 6: OPEN (formerly Michelle Bachmann (R) )

This is a new incarnation of the 6th, based in Anoka county, but much more suburban than the old 6th. This leans DFL and it would be an easy win for Tinklenberg or another Mainstream DFLer.



District 7: Collin Peterson (DFL)

Peterson’s district added a bit considering its low population growth. It expanded to include some of the old 1st district and I had the 2nd take some of the more red parts of the old 7th. It essentially is a R+4-6 district I think, but could competative for the right Democrat when Peterson retires. He’ll hold it until he leaves though.

District 8: Jim Obrestar (DFL) Purple

The 8th essentially stays the same. I reddened it a little to help the 7th blue up a bit, but it still leans DFL.

Redistricting Louisiana

Here’s a Democratic gerrymander of Louisiana. I’ve created a map that could theoretically go 4-2 Dem, although it could always just go 6-0 Republican. Though I doubt Cassidy could survive his district being turned into a majority-minority one.

LA-01 (red, Steve Scalise – R) – Still an uber-safe white district.

LA-02 (teal, Joseph Cao – R) – This becomes a plurality-white district (45% white, 43% black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian), so Cao would have a shot at re-election here (assuming he were to win in 2010).

LA-03 (green, Charles Boustany – R) – Boustany’s district shifts east and takes in a lot of counties that would be favorable to a Melancon-like Democrat.

LA-04 (yellow, John Fleming – R) – Those little tendrils to the south and east make this district 52% white and 42% black. Would make it tougher for Fleming to hold.

LA-05 (purple, Rodney Alexander – R) – Loses nearly half its black population and becomes safer for the Republicans.

LA-06 (blue, Bill Cassidy – R) – Apparently a majority-black district outside of New Orleans in possible. 51% black, 43% white.  

Congressional races 2010: Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine

Previous diaries

Summary:

 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D

 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D

 ME has 2 reps: Both D

Possibly vulnerable:

 KY-02 (R) (just a bit)

 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)

VoteView 286

First elected 1994

2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents

Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  1994

2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment  Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

VoteView 132.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents  None confirmed.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 321

First elected  1980

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 31-67

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents Jim Holbert

Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Lexington map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 211

First elected  2004

2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Matt Lockett

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 389

First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)

2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 26-72

Bush margin 2004 71-29

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans map

Cook PVI D + 25

Representative Anh Cao (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering.  Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment  By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 218

First elected  2004

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000

Obama margin 37-61

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running.  This bears watching.

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2009

2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents

Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 306

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

VoteView 301

First elected  2004

2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

VoteView 135.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Current opponents Jason Levesque

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment  Safe

Master List for House Fundraising 2008

Cross-posted at Election Inspection 

Ladies and gentlemen, I present the Master List for House fundraising for all 435 House races in 2008 presented without any analysis (I’ll post an analysis of the data a bit later).

In addition to having all House races here, I also took the liberty of dividing races into different classifications, including races that were contested by the losing Party, ones where the losing Party spent money, and the ones where the losing candidate spent at least $100,000. The formatting should be self explanatory, but if you have any questions feel free to ask in the comments section. Oh and before I forget, all these numbers were compiled from Open Secrets (major kudos to the operators!)

Virginia House of Delegates Targets: Post-Primary/Second Quarter Fundraising Update

Well, the primary is over a month past us, and the second quarter fundraising reports are in, so I’ve updated my list. I’ve added a couple of Democratic seats to watch (the 6th and the 87th) and dropped a Republican seat (the 60th). The list, including a nice little chart cribbed from SSP’s Senate ratings, are below the jump.

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
3rd (Bowling)

32nd (Poisson)

35th (open)

44th (open)

67th (Caputo)

87th (Miller)
21st (Mathieson)

23rd (Valentine)

51st (Nichols)

52nd (open)

64th (Barlow)
 7th (Nutter)

17th (open)

34th (Vanderhye)

42nd (Albo)

83rd (Bouchard)

86th (Rust)

93rd (Hamilton)
6th (Crockett-Stark)

13rd (B. Marshall)

14th (D. Marshall)

94th (Oder)
26th (Lohr)

50th (Miller)

58th (Bell)

73rd (O’Bannon)

82nd (Purkey)

Democratic Targets

6th: Anne Crockett-Stark vs. Carole Pratt (Bland, Giles, Pulaski, Tazewell, Wythe)

Anne Crockett-Stark picked up this seat in 2005, then failed to increase her margin much in 2007, winning 54-46 then 56-44. She also only has about $15k on hand. Challenger Carole Pratt was a last-minute fill-in, but has already more than doubled Crockett-Stark’s cash on hand. The district is moderately Republican but is more sympathetic to the right Democrat — Deeds only lost the district 55-45 in 2005, whereas Obama lost it 61-37.

7th: Dave Nutter vs. Peggy Frank (Montgomery, Pulaski, Radford)

Nutter won 53-47 over Peggy Frank in 2007, and she’s come back for a rematch. Creigh Deeds on the ticket (he lost the district 52-48 in 2005) may help her in this SWVA district.

13th: Bob Marshall vs. John Bell (Loudoun, Prince William)

Bob Marshall is a far-right culture warrior in a rapidly-expanding exurban district. He trounced Bruce Roemmelt in 2005 and 2007, but Air Force vet John Bell looks to be a stronger challenger. Marshall will have to fight the increasing Democratic strength in this district — after leaning Republican for years, it voted narrowly for Obama in 2008.

14th: Danny Marshall vs. Seward Anderson (Danville, Henry, Pittsylvania)

Danny Marshall narrowly held off Adam Tomer in 2007 52-48, and faces another strong challenger, this time former Danville Mayor Seward Anderson. The problem for Anderson is winning enough of the vote in Pittsylvania; Marshall narrowly lost Danville but won an overwhelming 63% in Pittsylvania to hold on.

17th: open (William Fralin retiring); Bill Cleaveland vs. Gwen Mason (Botetourt, Roanoke County, Roanoke City)

This is an open seat, the only reason this seat is a target, as it’s a pretty solidly Republican district (although Kaine did get 47% there). Democrat Gwen Mason, a member of the Roanoke City Council, has been able to sit back and accrue a war chest as five Republicans battled it out for the nomination, in which attorney Bill Cleaveland emerged as the Republican victor. Cleaveland doesn’t seem to have much of a base in the district — he lives in Botetourt, the smallest part of the district, although his practice is in the City of Roanoke. His post-primary fundraising is also sputtering, aside from a large infusion of cash from retiring Fralin.

26th: Matt Lohr vs. Gene Hart (Harrisonburg, Rockingham)

Lohr was elected 54-46 in 2005 against Lowell Fulk (not to be confused with blogger Lowell Feld), and faced only an independent in 2007. Harrisonburg attorney Gene Hart is taking a swing at it this time. He’ll need to crack Rockingham to win, though — Fulk won Harrisonburg easily but got trounced in Rockingham 59-41.

42nd: Dave Albo vs. Greg Werkheiser (Fairfax)

Dave Albo is notorious for being the driving force (no pun intended) behind the incredibly-unpopular abusive driving fees that were passed in 2007 and summarily repealed the next year. Greg Werkheiser, Albo’s 2005 opponent who came within a few percent of beating Albo, is running again. Albo has realized the peril he’s in and pumped a bunch of PAC money into his account. There doesn’t seem to be a special interest around that he won’t take money from, and it’s given him a $165k warchest, compared to Werkheiser’s $40k.

50th: Jackson Miller vs. Jeanette Rishell (Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William)

This will be the third matchup between Republican Jackson Miller and Democrat Jeanette Rishell. Rishell lost 53-47 in a 2006 special election, then by 61-39 in 2007. This is a swing district, and Rishell is good at raising money, but it remains to be seen whether she can get voters on her side this time.

52nd: open (Jeff Frederick retiring); Rafael Lopez vs. Luke Torian (Prince William)

Jeff Frederick, ostracized by his party, is retiring, so the Republican nominee is Rafael Lopez. Frederick’s wife Amy had filed for the Republican nomination but withdrew before the primary. Democrats chose pastor Luke Torian in the primary, who will likely cruise to victory in November. This district was won by Obama 63-36 — not fertile ground for a Republican hold in the best of circumstances.

58th: Robert Bell vs. Cynthia Neff (Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Orange)

Another masterful Republican gerrymander, this district is basically a New Jersey-shaped wedge around Charlottesville that has an ever-so-slight Republican lean. Bell faces a challenge from Cynthia Neff, a retired IBM executive, but get this — Bell has over $500,000 on hand. Not a typo, half a million dollars. I guess he’s been wanting to run statewide for a while. Neff is going to have to go a long way to make up for this financial disadvantage.

73rd: John O’Bannon vs. Thomas Shields (Henrico, Richmond City)

Suburban Richmond is home to John O’Bannon, who has $175,000 in the bank and is being challenged by college professor Thomas Shields. Shields has a lot of catching up to do to match O’Bannon’s fundraising. This is actually the first time a Democrat has bothered to run against O’Bannon, who succeeded Eric Cantor following his election to the House in 2000. The district is one of many in the Commonwealth that is moving towards the center after being Republican-leaning for a while.

82nd: Bob Purkey vs. Peter Schmidt vs. John Parmele (Virginia Beach)

Purkey, a former Wall Street broker, sleepwalks through one campaign after another. His first serious opponent in years is Republican-turned-Democrat Peter Schmidt, who challenged Purkey in the Republican primary in 2005. This is a fairly Republican district, but Schmidt’s profile as a moderate former Republican could be a boon in his bid. Independent John Parmele, who lost 71-29 to Purkey in a two-way race in 2005, will be the third option on the ballot.

86th: Tom Rust vs. Stevens Miller (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Rust’s first serious challenge came in 2007, when he was held to 53% by Jay Donohue. The district has made a sharp left turn to the Democrats, voting 62% for Obama in 2008. Rust is being challenged this time by Loudoun County Supervisor Stevens Miller. Miller’s geographic location may help, as in 2007 Rust only narrowly won the Fairfax part of the district but dominated the Loudoun portion 55-45.

93rd: Phil Hamilton vs. Robin Abbott (James City, Newport News)

Hamilton represents a Democratic district that has only gotten stronger in recent years, but hasn’t faced an opponent since 1995. Now he’s going up against attorney Robin Abbott. Like Albo, Hamilton has sensed danger and is suckling at the teat for PAC money — he’s now over $180k in cash on hand, compared to Abbot’s $113k.

94th: Glenn Oder vs. Gary West (Newport News)

Oder is yet another Republican in a swing district with a slight Republican lean, although it was won by Obama last year. He hasn’t faced a Democrat since he defeated John Miller (now a State Senator) 54-46 when he was first elected to the House in 2001, but this year he will be challenged by attorney Gary West.

Republican Targets

3rd: Dan Bowling vs. James Morefield (Buchanan, Russell, Tazewell)

This is a fairly swingy district, that went 59-40 for McCain while supporting both Webb and Deeds in previous years. Bowling will find Deeds a boon at the top of the ticket, and his opponent, James Morefield, trails Bowling in fundraising, but it’s still one to watch.

21st: Bobby Mathieson vs. Ron Villanueva (Virginia Beach)

Mathieson trounced incumbent Republican John Welch in 2007, but this time he faces Ron Villanueva, a member of the Virginia Beach City Council. There is a small but significant Filipino community in Virginia Beach which Villanueva might be able to appeal to, and this is Bob McDonnell’s home turf, definitely a boon for any Republican running here. However, this is the most Democratic House district in the city, and Villanueva’s fundraising has lagged behind Mathieson’s so far.

23rd: Shannon Valentine vs. Scott Garrett (Amherst, Lynchburg)

Valentine won the seat in a 2006 special election and was unopposed in 2007, but this year she will face Lynchburg City Councilman Scott Garrett, who won the June primary. Expect lots of help for Garrett from Liberty University, but he starts off the general election broke, while Valentine has raised nearly $200k through the second quarter.

32nd: David Poisson vs. Tag Greason (Loudoun)

Poisson underperformed in 2007 after defeating Dick Black in 2005, but his 2009 opponent, Tag Greason, doesn’t seem to be up to the challenge, having just over a quarter of Poisson’s cash on hand after the second quarter. This is a swing district with a slight Democratic lean.

34th: Margi Vanderhye vs. Barbara Comstock (Fairfax)

When longtime incumbent Vince Callahan retired in 2007, this was considered an easy pickup. He was the last Republican from inside the beltway in the House of Delegates, and the district was won by every Democrat from John Kerry forward. However, Margi Vanderhye only managed a 3% victory. She’s being challenged by Barbara Comstock, a much more conservative Republican than the moderate Callahan. Comstock’s fundraising started off stronger, but Vanderhye has punched up her own efforts in the second quarter.

35th: open (Steve Shannon retiring); Mark Keam vs. James Hyland (Fairfax)

Steve Shannon, of course, is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General. Shannon’s successor in this district should be a Democrat, but open seats are often unpredictable. Republican James Hyland, a former chair of the Fairfax County Republican Party who lost 60-40 to Shannon in 2005, had a clear path to the nomination; Democrats overwhelmingly chose Mark Keam, an attorney who worked on Barack Obama’s Virginia campaign, in the four-way primary. Keam is a fundraising machine, pulling in over $150,000 for the primary alone; if he can keep that up, he’s as good as in.

44th: open (Kris Amundson retiring); Scott Surovell vs. Jay McConville vs. Glenda Gail Parker (Fairfax)

Admunson retired in late June, giving the Republicans a leg up with a decent fundraiser, Jay McConville, but the substitute candidate, Fairfax County Democratic party chair Scott Surovell, took no time catching up, raising $80,000 in eight days. In addition, the district is pretty Democratic, which helps Surovell’s chances. Also in the race is our favorite light rail-supporting perennial candidate, Glenda Gail Parker of the Indy Greens.

51st: Paul Nichols vs. Richard Anderson (Prince William)

Nichols picked up this seat from retiring Republican Michele McQuigg in 2007 against a pretty lame opponent, but similar to Vanderhye, only won by about 4%. He’s facing Richard Anderson in November. Nichols loaned himself $100k to get a leg up on Anderson — he’s now ahead $160k to $35k in cash on hand. Of course, a safe incumbent wouldn’t need to do that, but more money usually helps.

64th: William Barlow vs. Stan Clark vs. Albert Burckard Jr. (Franklin City, Isle of Wight, James City, Southampton, Surry, Williamsburg)

Barlow is a longtime incumbent who has been winning with shrinking margins over the years, from 65-32 in 1999 to just 54-45 in 2005, his last contested election. The Republicans have chosen Isle of Wight County Supervisor Stan Clark to face off against him, and Independent Green Albert Burckard Jr., who also ran in 2005, will also be on the ballot.

67th: Chuck Caputo vs. Jim LeMunyon (Fairfax, Loudoun)

Chuck Caputo easily defeated wingnut Chris Craddock to win an open Republican seat in 2005, then nearly lost the seat in 2007, winning only 53-47 against Marc Cadin. Now he will face another challenge, this time from entrepreneur Jim LeMunyon. Caputo currently leads LeMunyon 2-1 in cash on hand, which, if 2007 is any indicator, is about what he needs to win again.

83rd: Joe Bouchard vs. Chris Stolle (Virginia Beach)

Retired Navy Commander Joe Bouchard defeated Chris Stolle, brother of State Sen. Ken Stolle, by a mere 131 votes in 2007. Stolle has come back for a rematch, but can’t depend on his brother’s help this time, as Ken is busy running for Virginia Beach Sheriff. McDonnell won this district by 10 points in 2005, which could help pull Chris over the top this time, though.

87th: Paula Miller vs. John Amiral (Norfolk)

Miller picked up Thelma Drake’s House of Delegates seat in a 2004 special election, winning by a 97-vote margin over Michael Ball. She won against Ball again in 2005, this time by a 50-38 margin, with Republican John Coggeshall picking up the remaining 12 percent. In 2007, she defeated retired Vice Admiral Hank Giffin by a 54-46 margin (and keep in mind, this district includes a lot of the area near Norfolk Naval Station). This may be her easiest fight yet, against another Navy vet, John Amiral, but her fundraising is pretty anemic so far. Although Obama cleaned up here in 2008, this is a swing district in off-years, and has enough recent high-end residential development to keep any Democrat wary.

One More to Watch

91st: Tom Gear vs. Gordon Helsel vs. Sam Eure (Hampton, Poquoson, York)

This won’t cause a change in the House of Delegates, but I thought it was an interesting race nonetheless. Gear is being challenged by Democrat Sam Eure (who has raised nearly no money and his last campaign was for York County Board of Superviors — he lost by 15 percent) and Republican-turned-Independent Gordon Helsel, the Mayor of Poquoson, who is outraising Gear by about 2.5:1. The district is about 50-50 split between Hampton and Poquoson/York, and each locality has their own candidate — Gear from Hampton, Helsel from Poquoson, and Eure from York. Gear, however, performed weakest in Hampton the last time he was opposed, against an independent in 2005. He only won Hampton 57-42, whereas he won Poquoson and York with over 60%. It will be interesting to see how this race plays out.

Dropped from the List

60th: open (Clarke Hogan retiring); James Edmunds vs. David Guill (Charlotte, Halifax, Prince Edward)

This one looked like it might have been interesting, but Democrat David Guill has apparently been doing nothing, at least nothing involving raising money. This is a Republican-leaning district, so he’d need to do a lot more than nothing to win.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/17

• NH-Sen: You may remember several weeks ago when John Sununu reassured the rabble that Kelly Ayotte was, in fact, a fire-breathing conservative. A recent hire, though, suggests she might be trying to position herself as a New England moderate — she brought aboard Thomas Daffron for her campaign, a former Susan Collins consultant and CoS to William Cohen. Which, again, will only increase the likelihood of a Fred Tausch and/or Ovide Lamontagne challenge from the right.

• NY-Sen-B: Harry Reid weighed in on the New York Senate primary, endorsing Kirsten Gillibrand, calling her a “rising star in the Democratic caucus.” Meanwhile, Joe Trippi, who’s been working for the Carolyn Maloney campaign (for which he received $10K in the second quarter), got busted for one of blogging’s cardinal sins when posting at HuffPo: not disclosing a paid relationship with a candidate.

• AK-Gov: Sean Parnell isn’t even Governor yet (he takes over on the 26th), and would-be rivals are already sizing him up. The former state House Speaker, John Harris, announced that he’ll run against Parnell in the 2010 GOP primary. Which may seem odd, since Parnell is nowhere near as polarizing as predecessor Sarah Palin… but that may be exactly what’s motivating the more combative Harris, as he may think the inoffensive Parnell is something of a pushover, as seen by Parnell’s inability to close the deal against corrupt Don Young in the 2008 GOP House primary.

• MN-Gov: The field keeps growing, as two more Republicans made it official in the last couple days that they’re candidates for the gubernatorial nomination next year: state Senator David Hann and former state Auditor Pat Anderson.

• NY-Gov: AG Andrew Cuomo’s mouth may be saying that he’s not running against David Paterson in next year’s gubernatorial primary, but his wallet says otherwise. Cuomo raised $5.1 million in the last six months, which more than doubles up on Paterson, who raised $2.3 million in the same period.

• CO-04: The media war over cap-and-trade continues in CO-04 as well as in VA-05; the Environmental Defense Action Fund (paid for by green energy companies) is running a thank-you ad on TV in favor of Rep. Betsy Markey’s cap-and-trade vote. She’s already had a thank-you TV ad from Americans United for Change run in her favor, and been the target of NRCC robocalls as well (but no TV from them, at least yet).

• FL-10: More bad PR for Rep. Bill Young, whose bad fundraising quarter suggests he might be looking to cash in his chips. Young had to kill a $4 million earmark for St. Petersburg defense contractor Conax, after Conax was raided by federal agents several days ago. Conax has been a frequent recipient of the largesse of Young, the ranking Republican on Appropriations, to the tune of $28.5 million in earmarks since 2005. (Perhaps not coincidentally, Young received $123,000 in contributions in the last two years from defense contractors for whom he’s seeking earmarks this  year.)

• FL-13: With Rep. Vern Buchanan facing big legal questions over sketchy campaign finance practices, Dems need to have someone credible on deck here to capitalize in case Buchanan implodes. Looks like they’ve found a credible challenger: pastor and former Bradenton city councilor James Golden.

• MN-06: With local heavyweight state Sen. Tarryl Clark jumping into the Democratic field, 2008 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg (who came within 3 points of unseating Rep. Michele Bachmann) is making noises that he may go all the way to the primary regardless of what Clark does. In most states, that wouldn’t be the least bit surprising, but remember that Minnesota picks its DFL nominees by nominating endorsing convention prior to the primary and it’s highly unusual to see contested primaries. With former UM regent Maureen Reed clearly also a serious candidate (based on her last fundraising quarter), this looks like it’ll be dramatic.

• MS-03: So maybe you were wondering what was happening a year ago when thirty-something GOP rising star Rep. Chip Pickering, who’d been considered a likely successor to Trent Lott’s Senate seat, instead of going for that or even running for re-election, simply dropped out of politics altogether. Well, turns out he was given an ultimatum by his mistress of choosing between her or politics (which, in rural Mississippi, would require continuing his sham marriage to his wife) — and, somewhat unpredictably, he chose the mistress. The kicker? Pickering was, at the time, a resident of the now-infamous C Street townhouse, making him a roommate of John Ensign and ex-roomie of Mark Sanford.

• NY-23: Just a reminder, in case you were thinking of running for Congress: today is the deadline for Democratic applicants for the nomination in the open seat race in NY-23 to make their intentions known. Still no word on whether or not state Sen. Darrel Aubertine is planning to take the plunge or not.

• OH-AG: We finally have some confirmation about what “statewide” office former Sen. Mike DeWine was planning to run for. It’s been leaked that next week he’ll announce a run for Attorney General (and not Governor). He’ll face Democratic incumbent Richard Cordray, who took over in mid-term from Marc Dann.

Congressional races 2010: Indiana, Iowa, Kansas

Previous diaries:

Summary:

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans

 Possibly vul: IN-02 (D)

               IA-03 (D)

               KS-04 now open but was (R)

Sources:

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 127

First elected  1984

2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map

Cook PVI  R + 2

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

VoteView 235

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent.  Tom Weatherwax may run; he is a former state senator.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 338

First elected 1994

2008 margin 55-45  over Michael Montagno

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents There is a primary opponent, but no Demorats so far.

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot.

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Steve Buyer (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 380

First elected  1992

2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Dan Burton (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 410

First elected 1982

2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents At least one Republican is primarying Burton, and others will run if he retires.

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Mike Pence (R)

VoteView 431

First elected  2000

2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Looks tough

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 14

Representative Andre Carson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 147

First elected  2008

2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment safe

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

VoteView 233

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Dan Stockton

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Baron Hill (D)

VoteView 229

First elected 2006

2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Todd Young and Travis Hankins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, and he’s already raised over $200K.

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

VoteView 151

First elected  2006

2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-51

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

VoteView 93

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents Steve Rathje

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected  1996

2008 margin  56-42 over Kim Schmett

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Current opponents None declared. Michael Mahaffey may run.

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Mahaffey ran against Boswell in 1996, and it was close. Boswell has already raised $150K, but this bears watching.

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.

Cook PVI  Even

Representative Tom Latham (R)

VoteView 290

First elected  1994

2008 margin  61-39 over Becky Greenwald

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district.  With the right opponent, who knows?

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Steve King (R) May run for Governor

VoteView 419

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot, whether it’s King or another Republican; in fact, King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) may be slightly more vulnerable than a more sane human.

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map

Cook PVI R + 23

Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Current opponents  7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI; No Democrats so far.

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map

Cook PVI  R + 9

Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Jenkins seems safe.

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

VoteView 196

First elected  1998

2008 margin 56-40 over Rick Jordan

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Patricia Barbieri Lightner, maybe others.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Moore, who had close races early in his career, now seems safe.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Current opponents At least 2 Republicans are running, and at least 2 Democrats: Donald Betts and Robert Tillman (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before.  Could be interesting.

NH-Sen: R2K Poll Points to a Tight Race

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/13-15, likely voters, no trend lines):

Paul Hodes (D): 42

Charlie Bass (R): 37

Paul Hodes (D): 38

Kelly Ayotte (R): 39

(MoE: ±4%)

This is probably the first legit public poll of the New Hampshire Senate race in a while (no, UNH and ARG do not count), so take a good long look.

Each of the three pols tested here boast decent favorable ratings, with Hodes at 34-21, Bass at 31-23, and Ayotte leading the pack at 36-13. However, as Laura points out, Ayotte also holds the largest share of “No Opinion” responses (51%), meaning that Hodes and the NHDP have a big opportunity to define her before she can set her own narrative.

RaceTracker wiki: NH-Sen