Month: July 2009

A backlog of polls have built up over the last couple days, none of which are that remarkable. Let’s clear the decks:

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Monmouth finds Chris Christie leading incumbent Jon Corzine 45-37 among likely voters (43-37 among RVs), with independent Chris Daggett pulling in 4%. That looks better than the Quinnipiac poll from Tuesday, but it’s a drop from the last Monmouth in April, where Christie led 39-35 among registered voters. Also troublesome: they ask whether Obama’s upcoming visit and endorsement will have any effect on how to vote, and 70% say it would have no effect.

• NY-Sen-B: Rasmussen polls the Democratic primary in New York’s senate special election for the first time, and finds Carolyn Maloney with a 33-27 edge over Kirsten Gillibrand, although 9% opt for “some other candidate” (presumably Jonathan Tasini, although some might just holding out for someone better). Both have high favorables: Gillibrand is at 49-25, while Maloney is at 44-24. They also looked at the NY-Gov Democratic primary, and found Andrew Cuomo whomping David Paterson, 61-27.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s latest suggests it’s time for someone in North Carolina to legally change his name to “Generic Democrat.” GOP incumbent Generic Republican Richard Burr leads Generic Democrat only 40-38 (after trailing G.D. 41-38 last month). Turning to actual human candidates, Burr leads former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 40-31 and attorney Kenneth Lewis 42-31. Burr also shows a small uptick in his approval rating, 36-29, maybe the first time this year his “approves” have exceeded the “don’t knows” (at 35%).

• TX-Gov: Rasmussen finds that Gov. Rick Perry’s lead over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Texas governor’s GOP primary is growing. He holds a 46-36 lead, while he led only 42-38 in May. Hutchison may be having second thoughts about giving up her day job.

• VA-Gov: Finally, Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race, and like the other most recent polls here, Dem nominee Creigh Deeds seems to have come down from his post-primary bump and it’s settled down into a very close equilibrium with a tiny advantage for GOPer Bob McDonnell. McD leads 44-41, while Deeds was up in their previous poll last month, 47-41. Both men are well-liked; McDonnell’s favorables are 50-27 and Deeds’ are 49-35.

• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who’s expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek’s account on the same day — but only $250 to him.)

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they’re still “lousy.” He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won’t run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway’s primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning’s dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.

• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there’s still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn’t going to be working for Ayotte. He’s been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who’s planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he’s interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).

• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn’t get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor’s race. Here’s a newly interested potential candidate, though, who’s at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She’s the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state’s second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.

• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there’s also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore’s daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won’t run.

• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat… but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it’s happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn’t clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he’s likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach’s former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele’s name has been floated, although she’s already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike’s early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still “eyeing” the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).

• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn’t fit in James’s fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.

• Demographics: Two interesting reads you’ll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more “seculars,” and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the “culture wars.” And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that — unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational — Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts’ voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you’re represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you’re reading SSP, chances are that you aren’t), this would be a great piece to forward to them.

KSTP-TV:

For weeks, the political blogoshpere has been full of speculation that Assistant Senate Majority Leader Tarryl Clark might challenge Bachmann. On Wednesday, sources close to Clark tell 5 EYEWITNESS NEWS she will run.

Clark, a strong voice of the DFL-controlled Senate, has gained name recognition and an elevated standing in the party. It could also position her perfectly to take on the Republican many DFLers consider their public enemy number one.

In a statement to MinnPost.com’s Eric Black, Clark says that she’ll make an announcement “in the near future“:

“Sen. Clark is not ready to formally announce her candidacy for Congress from the Sixth District, but recently she has spent a great deal of time meeting with political leaders and key donors in the Sixth and across the state. She’s been overwhelmed by the outpouring of support she’s received. She knows how important it is to make a decision soon and wants to hit the ground running if she decides to run. She’ll formally announce her decision in the near future.”

Clark’s entry in this race will set off a spirited three-way endorsement battle that will also feature ’08 nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg, and Maureen Reed, who ran for Lt. Governor on the Independence Party ticket in 2006 and recently raised $232K in the second quarter.

It all makes you wonder if Tinklenberg is regretting his decision to surrender $250K to the DCCC back in April. Tinklenberg campaign manager (and friend of SSP) Dana Houle says that they’ll fight hard to win the party’s nomination, but his job just got a whole lot tougher.

(H/T: Taegan Goddard)

RaceTracker wiki: MN-06

Previous diaries

Today: Illinois

Summary:

Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  Vulnerable are

  IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.

  IL-10 (R) which is now open

  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: IL-01

Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 34

Representative Bobby Rush (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 50.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 85-15

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Current opponents There is a primary and then Antoine Members is running again (no site)

Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: IL-02

Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 36

Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank  14

First elected  1995

2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams

2006 margin 85-12

2004 margin 88-12

Obama margin 90-10

Bush margin 2004 16-84

Current opponents  None confirmed

Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-03  

Location Southwestern Chicago  map

Cook PVI  D + 11

Representative Dan Lipinski (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank 192.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Michael Hawkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-04  

Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that’s saying something!) this one…looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank 45

First elected  1992

2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham

2006 margin 86-14

2004 margin 84-12

Obama margin 85-13

Bush margin 2004 21-79

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Ann Melichar, who lost in 2006

Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-05  

Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O’Hare  map

Cook PVI  D + 19

Representative Mike Quigley   Not confirmed

First elected  2009

VoteView rank NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 73-26

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents Kevin White (who lost in 2006)

Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-06

Location Western suburbs of Chicago   map

Cook PVI  Even

Representative Peter Roskam (R) May run for Senate

VoteView rank 381

First elected  2006

2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)

Assessment Unclear.  If Roskam runs for Senate, all bets are off; even if he runs her in IL-06, a strong Democrat could take it.  This one bears watching.

District: IL-07  

Location Chicago’s Loop and nearby map

Cook PVI D + 35

Representative Danny Davis (D) May run for Cook County Pres.

VoteView rank 20.5

First elected  1996

2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller

2006 margin 87-13

2004 margin 86-14

Obama margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Current opponents If Davis leaves, a bunch of Democrats will vie for this safe seat.

Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate – $40K)

Assessment safe for Democrats.

District: IL-08  

Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map

Cook PVI  R + 1

Representative Melissa Bean (D)

VoteView rank 226

First elected  2004

2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg

2006 margin 51-44 (remainder “moderate” party)

2004 margin 52-48

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)

Assessment After two close races, Bean seems to be safe.

District: IL-09  

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map

Cook PVI D + 20

Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)

VoteView rank 23

First elected  1998

2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 32-68

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-10  

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate

VoteView rank NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents

Assessment It’s wide open.  Confirmed Democrats include:

Michael Bond who describes himself as a “fiscal conservative, social moderate, and strong environmentalist”

and Elliot Richardson whose site is pretty much a moderate Democrat’s, but several others are considering a run.  This should be a tight race.  The Cook PVI is a bit off, because IL gave a big native son effect to Obama.

District: IL-11  

Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map

Cook PVI  R + 1

Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Current opponents Adam Kinzinger, Henry Meers, and David McAloon

Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks

Assessment Unclear, but Halvorsen has already raised $300K.

District: IL-12  

Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Jerry Costello (D)

VoteView rank 189

First elected  1988

2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: IL-13  

Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Judy Biggert (R)

VoteView rank 293

First elected  1998

2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.  His website could use some more info on his postions.

Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)

Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama’s coattails.  I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn’t look too hopeful

District: IL-14  

Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative  Bill Foster (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 228

First elected  2008

2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents  Ethan Hastert and Jeff Danklefson

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment  Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well.  He should be OK.

District: IL-15  

Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map

Cook PVI  R + 6

Representative Tim Johnson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 247

First elected  2000

2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents David Gill

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.

District: IL-16  

Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map

Cook PVI  R + 2

Representative Don Manzullo (R)

VoteView rank 345

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Bob Abboud is running again

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: IL-17  

Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield

map

Cook PVI  D + 3

Representative Phil Hare (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 151

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Bobby Schilling

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: IL-18  

Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map

Cook PVI  R + 6

Representative Aaron Schock (R)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Carl Ray (this site needs some help, and he even asks for help on the site).

Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)

Assessment Probably going to be tough

District: IL-19  

Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative John Shimkus

VoteView rank 307

First elected  1996

2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics

Assessment Long shot

The second quarter reporting deadline for congressional candidates has now come and gone, so it’s time for SSP to gather up all the noteworthy fundraising numbers for 2010’s hot (and not-so-hot) House races.

Here’s the full chart, but if you see anything we missed, let us know in the comments:

A few quick notes:

• The average amount raised by a Frontline participant was $278K, an improvement over the first quarter, when the average amount raised was $259K.
• The Frontline member with the phattest second quarter haul was Jim Himes’ impressive $518K. The weakest? For the second quarter in a row, it’s Carol Shea-Porter and her $120K raised. Jeez Louise.
• You may vaguely recall that the NRCC started their own copycat version of the DCCC’s Frontline program, titled the “Patriot Program“. Let’s take a look at their first ten participants, a batch that they finally rolled out in May (Lungren, Calvert, Bilbray, Biggert, Cao, McCotter, Paulsen, Lance, Lee and Reichert). Their average haul was $301K each — a big jump from that group’s average 1Q take of $167K. It’s a small group so far, but it appears that the Patriot project is having some effect.
• Democratic challengers who out-raised Republican incumbents: Ami Bera (CA-03), Stephen Pougnet (CA-45), John Carney (DE-AL), and Charlie Justice (FL-10). (However, it must be noted that Justice’s haul was far from impressive.)
• Republican challengers who out-raised Democratic incumbents: Van Tran (CA-47), Greg Ball (NY-19), and Bill Russell (PA-12). (Caveat: Bill Russell is a BMW Direct client, which explains where most of his money is laundered coming from — and going to.)
• Overall, I’m struck by the lackluster sums from many highly-touted candidates on both sides of the aisle. For the Dems, Michael Bond (IL-10), Charlie Justice (FL-10), Paula Flowers (TN-03), and Bill Hedrick (CA-44) in particular will need to step up their game. But many GOP candidates had pretty underwhelming quarters, too: Charles Djou (HI-01), Sid Leiken (OR-04), Jon Barela (NM-01) and Frank Guinta (NH-01) were all well south of $100K this quarter. (If you can’t out-raise Carol Shea-Porter, something is wrong with you.) No doubt the crappy economy is tightening the cash flow for many candidates right now, but these candidates will have to start finding the money sooner rather than later.

No fun:

Two Republican sources said today that even as former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio campaigns for retiring GOP Sen. Mel Martinez’s Senate seat, he has been calling around to top Republican donors and activists in the state to discuss the idea of switching from the Senate primary against GOP Gov. Charlie Crist and into the open-seat race for attorney general, where a serious Republican candidate has yet to emerge.

Rubio has issued a bunch of weird, jokey non-denials on Twitter. It would suck if he dropped out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he started bailin’ like Palin.

(Hat tip: Taegan)

UPDATE: Some more claims by various media outlets that Rubio is “denying” his interest in the AG spot, but the only thing his camp has said is that “Speaker Rubio is an active candidate for U.S. Senate” and “He is squarely focused on winning this campaign for Senate.” Those are not denials.

(Cross-posted at Election Inspection

I happen to be reading around on the blog when I find a response written by Ta-Nehisi Coates to Matt Yglesias’s response to an article written by Pat Buchanan concerning whether or not the best bet for the Republican Party is to give up any pretext of doing well among the non-white vote. Here’s the basic point behind Buchanan’s argument:

In 2008, Hispanics, according to the latest figures, were 7.4 percent of the total vote. White folks were 74 percent, 10 times as large. Adding just 1 percent to the white vote is thus the same as adding 10 percent to the candidate’s Hispanic vote.

If John McCain, instead of getting 55 percent of the white vote, got the 58 percent George W. Bush got in 2004, that would have had the same impact as lifting his share of the Hispanic vote from 32 percent to 62 percent.

But even Ronald Reagan never got over 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. Yet, he and Richard Nixon both got around 65 percent of the white vote.

When Republican identification is down to 20 percent, but 40 percent of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, do Republicans need a GPS to tell them which way to go?

Why did McCain fail to win the white conservative Democrats Hillary Clinton swept in the primaries? He never addressed or cared about their issues.

These are the folks whose jobs have been outsourced to China and Asia, who pay the price of affirmative action when their sons and daughters are pushed aside to make room for the Sonia Sotomayors. These are the folks who want the borders secured and the illegals sent back.

Had McCain been willing to drape Jeremiah Wright around the neck of Barack Obama, as Lee Atwater draped Willie Horton around the neck of Michael Dukakis, the mainstream media might have howled.

And McCain might be president.

Basically, Buchanan is arguing that the Republicans are engaging in a vain effort to make nice with Latinos (and Blacks, for that matter) when they should be playing hardball on these types of issues (particuarly concerning Judge Sotomayor, President Obama’s pick to the Supreme Court).

Matt Yglesias seems to agree with Buchanan’s reasoning (even if he thinks the reasoning is scuzzy):

At any rate, while Buchanan is being repugnant, I do think this is something conservatives are going to want to think about. Consider the case of Jeff Sessions (R-AL). We’re talking about a guy who’s too racist to get confirmed as a judge, but just racist enough to win a Senate seat in Alabama. And it’s not because Alabama is a lilly white state. With 65 percent of its electorate white, and 29 percent of its electorate African-American, Alabama is much more demographically favorable to the Democrats than is the country at large. But while McCain pulled 55 percent of the white vote nationwide he scored 88 percent of white vote in Alabama. And this is what you tend to see in the Deep South, white Americans exhibiting the kind of high levels of racial solidarity in voting behavior that you normally associate with African-Americans in the US political context.

Consequently states with small white populations like Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi can be solid GOP territory. Under the circumstances, it’s not entirely crazy for Republicans to believe that the right way to respond to shifting American demographics is by just trying to amp-up the level of racial anxiety in the shrinking white majority. An analogy might be to religion. When the country was overwhelmingly Christian, Christianity didn’t play much of a role in our politics. But as the Christian majority shrank it became more and more viable to explicitly mobilize Christian identity for political purposes.

Yglesias seems to buy into Buchanan’s argument, that it might be a politically smart move to attempt to shore up the white vote against the non-white vote (basically Blacks, Latinos, Asians, Indians, etc.). I disagree with Yglesias’s reasoning for a few reasons. Ta-Nehisi Coates pretty much sums up part of my disagreement with Yglesias:

The second problem is that it likely turns a significant portion of white people also. The GOP’s problem isn’t that it needs to shore up Alabama–at least not yet. It’s problem is, well, basically everywhere else that isn’t Alabama. I don’t know how bashing Sotomayor makes you more competitive in, say, Colorado or Oregon. I’d assume the opposite.

Coates points out that the White vote, like the Latino vote, is simply not a homogenous group in the same way the Black vote is (although the GOP’s racist rhetoric regarding Latinos could turn the Latino vote into a more strongly Democratic vote than it is now). Though I do think that there are states where this could possibly pay dividends for the GOP outside of the Deep South, there are also plenty of states where this sort of tactic won’t work, and in some cases can backfire. Think about this for a second, take away the states of North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania from Obama and give them to McCain (67 electoral votes), Obama would win the electoral college with nearly 300 electoral votes (298 votes, 297 if you take away NE-02 from Obama’s column). That’s assuming that you’d make net gains among the White vote in those states, when there is plenty of reason to think otherwise. Looking at Ohio, the quintessential bastion of the White Working Class that Pat Buchanan is so obsessed with, Obama won the state by only marginally improving among the less educated group and improving greatly among the more educated compared to Kerry’s performance in 2004. Something which Buchanan and his ilk have failed to understand is that one of the reasons that the GOP has been collapsing has little to do with their strength among blue-collar Whites, rather it’s been because the Republicans have been doing worse and worse with better educated White voters and with minorities in general, and one thing that these two groups have in common is that they’re more likely to turn on groups who use the type of polarized voting that Buchanan advocates.

The second problem with Buchanan’s (and Yglesias’s) logic is that even if this strategy would help them out in the short term (a view which I strongly disagree with) in the long term, it would probably spell the end of the Republican Party. Think about this for a moment, Barack Obama only lost the state of Georgia by 5 points, compared to John Kerry’s embarrasing 18 point loss to George Bush, yet Obama did this despite doing as well with white voters as John Kerry did. This is the main problem with the Republican gambit, many states which form the core of the Republican Party’s base in the electoral college (Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Arizona) have populations which are becoming more and more non-white (Texas, Georgia, and Mississippi will probably be majority-minority states in the next decade or two). If McCain had lost the four states which I mentioned before (without taking back any of the other states I mentioned before) then he would’ve only had 108 electoral votes. The Republican Party may very well succumb to the demographic tide which is moving against it, but Buchanan’s advice would speed up the schedule very quickly.

• CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night’s special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It’s a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I’m wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer “that Jew” when he couldn’t think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as “this new minority judge.” Don’t confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who’s the one who thought you should “get shots” before going down to southeast Arkansas.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk — who’s had some past problems with the space-time continuum — has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he’s been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can’t count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood’s political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won’t run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue’s job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let’s just say we should be glad she isn’t up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that’s the worst individual performance of anyone they’ve polled this year except for Roland Burris!

• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can’t really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle’s tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn’t been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He’s joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that’s been linked to the teabagging movement) on their “Patients First Tour” in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit ‘eject,’ he’s starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he’ll announce his campaign plans for “statewide office,” without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor’s race. Does Ohio have a statewide “dogcatcher” position?

• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

I finally decided to create a map that is realistic. Since Republicans seem to be in control of South Carolina, I think they will aim for a map like this one. It is 5-2 Republican even though some of the Republicans should have shaky holds on their districts. I decided to think like a Republican would to draw this map. My main objectives were to strengthen Republicans Henry Brown and Joe Wilson while creating a new Republican district. I also strengthened John Spratt because it is almost impossible to weaken him enough to beat him while protecting the other Republicans. Anyway, Spratt is heavily entrenched. Also, I want to say thanks to Dave of Dave’s Redistricting App for enhancing the feature. Now here are the maps.

Southern South Carolina

Up Country

Eastern South Carolina

Charleston Area

District 1 Henry Brown (R) Blue

The Republicans biggest worry should be that Brown has not been strengthened enough by redistricting. Yes, he does have most of Charleston County but the parts he has are mostly Republican. I did not alter the old district boundaries there much. Also, he has Republican Horry County to offset Democratic margins. I am not sure if I strengthened Brown enough. McCain probably won 55%-57% of the vote here. The racial stats are 17% African American and 75% White. Status is Likely Republican.

District 2 Joe Wilson (R) Green

Wilson also had a surprisingly competitive race even though he won by 10 points. I helped shore him up and reduced the African American percentage of the population by three points. I removed most of the Democratic rural counties and the parts I included were only to connect the coastline to Aiken and Lexington Counties. I strengthened Wilson even more by putting in Republican parts of Berkeley and Dorchester Counties. McCain probably won 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 23% African American, 5% Hispanic and 68% White. Status is Likely Republican if Democrats want to challenge this district.

District 3 Gresham Barrett (R) Purple

There is not much difference here. Barrett is pretty safe with heavy Republican margins from Oconee and Pickens Counties. Even with McCormick County which leans Democratic, Barrett has no worries. I even reduced the African American population by two points. McCain probably won 64%-65% of the vote here. Racial stats are 18% African American and 76% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 4 Bob Inglis (R) Red

I did not alter this district much either. Inglis is pretty safe without any worries. The only changes I made were removing Union County and part of Spartanburg County, mostly for population purposes. McCain still probably won about 60% of the vote here. Racial stats are 18% African American, 6% Hispanic and 71% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 5 No Incumbent (R) Yellow

This is the new district I created for the Republicans. It basically contains Republican areas in the Up Country, Conservative Lexington County and some white parts of Richland County. I slipped in part of Chester County which Obama barely carried but this should still be Republican. I do not know who the new Republican congressman might be here. I found the names Jeff Duncan and Mac Toole, Republican members of the South Carolina State House whose districts contain part of the 5th. I have no idea if they are potential candidates or not. It would be great if someone who knows South Carolina better could elaborate on it. McCain probably won 62% of the vote here. Racial stats are 21% African American and 71% White. Status is Safe Republican.

District 6 James Clyburn (D) Teal

Since Clyburn is pretty safe, I left him alone pretty much. All I did was remove some northeastern precincts to strengthen John Spratt. All I can really say about this district is that it is still African American majority and Republicans have no shot at winning it. Obama probably won 67% of the vote here. Racial stats are 57% African American and 37% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

District 7 John Spratt (D) Gray

Since the Republicans would be pushing all the Republican areas into other districts, they had to leave behind some Democratic areas and many of them went here. Spratt is strengthened by the removal of most of York County and the inclusion of some African American precincts from the old 6th district. This increases the African American population from 32% to 39%. The changes do not matter much because Spratt is pretty safe. They do help elect a Democrat when he retires. Obama probably won 53% of the vote here. Racial stats are 39% African American and 56% White. Status is Safe Democrat.

Quinnipiac University (7/8-12, likely voters, 6/3-8 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn’t won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn’t won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it’s certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.

But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy – and the deep unhappiness it engenders – weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not – fair or not – the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you’re a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn’t start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.

Ordinarily, we don’t like to move races with unindicted incumbents past “Tossup.” But there’s nothing ordinary about 2009, or these poll numbers:

If you want to see what a classic “Jersey Dem sweats one out” race looks like, check out this chart of Bob Menendez vs. Tom Kean, Jr. from 2006 (turn off “poll results” to better see the trendlines):

Sure, Menendez definitely started perspiring a bit  in September, but he never spent months lagging by double digits. He also benefitted from a good economy and a huge Democratic wave – and he wasn’t an incumbent with anemic favorables.

Back in 2009, things have picked up somewhat for Corzine in recent months, but his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has also steadily improved. And the other internals on this Q-poll are a lot more worrying. Corzine’s job approval is at its lowest ever (33-60), his attacks on Christie for being close to Bush don’t resonate at all with voters (only 10% call it a “fair criticism”), and the state legislature “generic ballot” is a virtual tie at 45D-43R (in a state where Dems otherwise hold wide margins in the lege).

This, of course, is just one poll – but pick apart any survey and you’ll find plenty of bad news. The fact that Corzine leaked an internal allegedly showing him at 38% is perhaps most disturbing of all. Is this supposed to constitute good news? (The fact that no one’s seen the full memo is also telling.)

We’re also pretty troubled by word that Corzine might tap a reality TV star (yes, you read that right) for the newly-created post of Lieutenant Governor. This is beyond bizarre, and is reminiscent of John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his number two. Let’s pray Corzine doesn’t go this route – but it’s not a heartening sign that he’s considering something so gimmicky when he should be picking someone experienced and fit to succeed him if need be.

The one genuinely positive event on the horizon is the rally Obama is doing with Corzine on Thursday. But that’s just a one-time event, and given how parsimoniously the President spends his political captial, I doubt Obama’s going to attach himself to Corzine at the hip and drag him across the finish line in November.

As I say, this isn’t a move we make lightly, but nonetheless we’re changing the rating on NJ-Gov to “Lean Republican.” This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.