Month: March 2010

While we’re sitting around waiting for the main event to start, let’s hear your predictions on tonight’s primaries in the Lone Star State. Can one-time sure-thing Kay Bailey Hutchison somehow pull off the upset and beat Rick Perry? OK, OK, you can stop the laughing now… can KBH somehow keep Rick Perry from clearing 50% and avoiding a runoff? Will enough teabaggers show up at the polls for an impressive showing for Debra Medina (and for primary challenges to Ralph Hall and Pete Sessions), or are their 15 minutes of fame/2 minutes of hate coming to a close? Will the long-anticipated matchup of Ciro Rodriguez and Quico Canseco finally come to pass, or will Canseco’s run of primary bad luck continue? And can Bill White clear 50% himself, or will hair care guru Farouk Shami force him into a resource-draining runoff? To prep yourself for answering all these questions, check out DavidNYC‘s preview from last night.

Polls close at 7 pm CT in most parts of the state and will start reporting then, although El Paso (on Mountain Time) closes an hour later. And in the meantime, don’t forget there are state House special elections on tap in Virginia and Connecticut.

• AR-Sen: That didn’t take long; Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is already hitting the TV airwaves in his freshly-launched primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln. Now, you may be wondering how he’s paying for that, considering that he’s starting almost from scratch. Turns out he’s coming into this with promises of huge financial backing from organized labor; three unions under the AFL-CIO umbrella are committing $3 million to independent expenditures in the race, which in the cheap Arkansas media markets will allow him to get on a solid footing against Lincoln’s $5 mil. That’s on top of $600K that poured in from the netroots (from MoveOn and the PCCC). See what happens when you piss off your base?

Rasmussen also snapped into action, putting out some further Arkansas numbers, and oddly, they aren’t anywhere near as catastrophic for Lincoln as last month. They still don’t have her in salvageable shape, though: Lincoln loses to Rep. John Boozman 48-39 (compared with 54-35 last month), state Sen. Gilbert Baker 45-40 (compared with 52-33 last month), state Sen. Jim Holt 45-38, state Sen. Kim Hendren 43-38, and businessman Curtis Coleman 43-41. This is Rasmussen’s first time testing Bill Halter, and for now, he’s performing about the same or somewhat worse than Lincoln. Halter trails Boozman 52-33, Baker 44-37, Holt 42-38, Hendren 42-35, and Coleman 38-35.

• CA-Sen: DavidNYC’s description of this development pretty much speaks for itself: “The lord taketh away Harold Ford, but may grace us with — I know it’s hard to imagine — an even BIGGER douchebag.” Mickey Kaus, the contrarian, Conservadem blogger, is apparently considering a run for Senate in California, taking out (though not yet filing) the appropriate candidate paperwork. Interestingly, I see no discussion of whether he plans to run in the Democratic primary against Barbara Boxer, or as an indie or a GOPer — not that he’s likely to provide much more than comic relief in any of the three categories.

• GA-Sen: Democrats may be kicking themselves for dropping the recruitment ball this year on a challenger to Johnny Isakson for his first re-election bid to the Senate. Rasmussen found him leading Generic D by a not-overwhelming 49-36 last week, and now PPP finds him with a similar but even less convincing win over Generic D, 46-37. Isakson’s approvals are a rather Richard Burr-ish 36/38. However, as seen in North Carolina, Generic D overperforms Real D: in case AG Thurbert Baker was considering jumping over from the gubernatorial race (where he badly lags ex-Gov. Roy Barnes in the primary), he trails Isakson 49-31. Jim Martin, who performed fairly well in the 2008 Senate election, does a little better, losing 47-35.

• KY-Sen: As Jim Bunning keeps up his Bizzaro-world Mr. Smith Goes to Washington impression (filibustering to cut off Boy Scouts’ dads’ unemployment compensation), he’s drawing the attention of two of his would-be successors. Democratic Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has called for a rally at Bunning’s Lexington office to protest Bunning’s crazy last stand, while Rand Paul’s campaign in now responding with its own counter-rally in support Bunning’s efforts. (Paul won’t be there himself, and it’s not clear if Mongiardo will either.)

• NY-Sen-B: There’s speculation that Harold Ford Jr.’s decision to abandon his Senate plans may have a lot to do with the likelihood of a Mort Zuckerman run on the Republican side — and that a lot of Ford’s moneybags donors were telling him they were with Zuckerman instead if he got in. Or, maybe Ford just got wind of his poll numbers in today’s Marist poll (pdf), giving him little shot at pulling the upset. In the Dem primary, Ford trailed Kirsten Gillibrand 50-19 (with 3 for Jonathan Tasini). Considering that Ford collapsed from an already-bad 44-27 in late January’s Marist poll as he gained notoriety all last month, that seems like plenty of incentive to get out. Gillibrand trails the unlikely-to-run George Pataki in the general 48-45, but demolishes Zuckerman, 59-26, as well as the already-running Bruce Blakeman, 58-28. In the other Senate race, undeclared candidate Larry Kudlow might want to save his money; Charles Schumer leads Kudlow 69-24.

• OK-Sen: Rasmussen keeps polling everything that’s pollable, and today that includes the Oklahoma Senate race. No Democrat of note has stepped up to challenge Tom Coburn, and that may be just as well, as the Dems’ best possible candidate, the state’s popular, termed-out Democratic Governor  Brad Henry, still finds himself losing a hypothetical battle to Coburn, 52-40.

• TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison is still insisting that she’s going to resign from the Senate at some point this year, despite the very very very very high likelihood of not winning the Texas gubernatorial primary which looked like hers for the taking a year ago. She still isn’t sure about a date, although it’s pegged to the legislative calendar, as before resigning she plans to, in her words, “stay and fight health care.” PPP’s Tom Jensen sees some interesting possible winners in Hutchison’s fall: Robin Carnahan and Lee Fisher. The scope of Hutchison’s loss tonight may give some insight into just how much this year’s discontent is an anti-Beltway insider, rather than anti-Democratic, bubble. The former, of course, would be a boost to statehouse vets Carnahan and Fisher (ahem, or Jennifer Brunner) as they fight DC hacks Roy Blunt and Rob Portman.

• CA-Gov: Apparently, after having spent months meditating away whatever bad vibes he may have felt about the role thrust upon his shoulders as the only man who can save California, Jerry Brown has emerged from his Fortress of Solitude and officially declared his candidacy for Governor. Unfortunately, while he was away, Ursa and Non have had uncontested months to rampage around the city destroying things… although thanks to Brown’s super-powers of bafflement and misdirection, they’ve gotten bamboozled into slugging it out viciously with each other instead. (Meanwhile, General Zod has already left town for the more interesting Senate race.)

• GA-Gov: Insider Advantage has polls of both primaries in the Georgia gubernatorial race, although no general election head-to-heads. No surprises on either side: on the Dem side, Roy Barnes is cruising at 36, followed by Thurbert Baker at 7, DuBose Porter at 3, and David Poythress at 2. On the GOP side, John Oxendine leads at 27, followed by Karen Handel at 13, Nathan Deal at 9, Eric Johnson at 7, and Other at 8. While Nathan Deal’s resignation is being spun as allowing him to focus full-time on his seemingly tractionless bid, there’s a darker side to it, too: TPM reports on how he was getting out one step ahead of the Ethics Committee, which was starting to look into allegations of Deal pressuring state officials to intervene on behalf of an auto inspection business that Deal co-owns. With Deal out of the House, the case is closed, at least at the federal level.

• MI-Gov: May the Schwarz be with us! It may be the only way we can salvage the Michigan gubernatorial race. Joe Schwarz, the ticked-off moderate ex-Rep. from MI-07 (who got teabagged by Tim Walberg in a GOP primary before getting teabagged was fashionable), is launching an exploratory committee for a gubernatorial run as an independent. This could be a big break for Dems in the gubernatorial race — especially if obnoxious Rep. Peter Hoekstra is the GOP nominee, as Schwarz seems poised to soak up a fair number of moderate votes unenthused by Hoekstra’s right-wing grandstanding. Schwarz seems more likely to be Chris Daggett than Jesse Ventura, though, and if things get really scrambled — for instance, an all-centrist three-way between Andy Dillon, Rick Snyder, and Schwarz — he could potentially harm the Dems as much as the GOP.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Marist also takes a look at the Governor’s race. Seeing as how this is their first poll after David Paterson’s announcement that he wouldn’t run for re-election, it’s also the first poll in a long time to contain any good news for Paterson: only 28% of respondents want him to resign, as opposed to 66% who say finish his term. And only 18% think Paterson has done anything illegal, as opposed to a mere 40% who think he merely did something unethical, not illegal. (The bad news: his approval is down to 23/71, which has to be a new low.) With the participants in November’s election now pretty much locked in, they find AG Andrew Cuomo beating ex-Rep. Rick Lazio 64-28. Cuomo’s halo may be shining even brighter as his office begins investigating Paterson; Cuomo’s approval is 67/28.

• RI-Gov: One more Rasmussen poll to add to the pile, and they’re seeing more or less what Brown Univ. saw last week, regarding the Rhode Island gubernatorial race. Independent ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee is definitely in the driver’s seat, although Dem state Treasurer Frank Caprio polls better against him than does AG Patrick Lynch. Only difference here: Rasmussen sees Republican John Robitaille performing much better, although he’s still deep in third place. Chafee wins the Caprio race 37-27-19, while he wins the Lynch race 38-24-22.

• GA-07: One of the guys considered a heavyweight in the GOP field in this newly-opened-up seat in the R+16 7th has decided against a run. State Sen. David Shafer announced he’ll take a pass. Fellow state Sen. Don Balfour is already in the running, with state Rep. Clay Cox and Gwinnett Co. Commissioner Mike Beaudreau also expected to join him soon.

• MA-10: Maybe I spoke too soon in thinking that Joe Kennedy III’s decision not to run next year was an indication of another term of William Delahunt. It turns out Delahunt has been on a bit of a grotesque spending spree, burning through $560K of his campaign cash last year (including campaign staff salaries for a number of family members). This cuts his war chest in half, and he only raised $42K last year — all actions of a man eyeing the exits. If Delahunt needs something to do with his money, I can think of a certain “DCCC” that could really use help right now, probably much more so than his family members. (H/t Adam B.)

• MI-03: State Sen. Bill Hardiman (termed-out from his current job) announced that he’ll run for the open seat in the 3rd, left behind by retiring Vern Ehlers. Hardiman faces state Rep. Justin Amash, already coronated as frontrunner by western Michigan GOP power brokers Dick and Betsy DeVos. If the former Kentwood mayor survives his primary, he’s on his way to returning the Republicans back to having at least one African-American in Congress.

• NY-St. Sen.: Give Hiram Monserrate credit for persistence, I guess. Having become the first sitting New York state Senator to get expelled in decades after an assault conviction, Monserrate promptly picked himself up, dusted himself off, and began running in the special election to replace himself. This time, Monserrate is running as an independent, against Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta. Peralta has the advantage of the support of the entire Democratic establishment, but Monserrate has one thing on his side: name recognition (not necessarily for good PR, but still…).

• Ads: 501(c)(4) League of American Voters is running anti-health care reform TV ads against a whole slew of swing-district Democrats, hoping to sway a few wobblies in the run-up to the next House vote: Mike Arcuri, Dan Maffei, Chris Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Kathy Dahlkemper, Baron Hill, Steve Kagen, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Tom Perriello, Mark Schauer, Zach Space, and Harry Teague.

• Special elections: And you thought the Texas primary was all that was on tap tonight? No, there are two special elections for state Houses, both of which look pretty competitive. The Dems are trying to hold a seat in Virginia in HD-41 in a swingy part of Fairfax County, recently vacated by Dave Marsden’s promotion to the state Senate. The Democratic candidate, Eileen Filler-Corn, may have the edge, in that she has a 3-to-1 fundraising edge over Kerry Bolognese, and the district went for Obama with 57%. On the other hand, Bolognese came within 50-49 of Marsden last fall, and Bob McDonnell won the district with 55%. (Both candidates, unappealingly enough, are lobbyists by day.) The GOP has the edge in the House of Delegates, 59-38-2. And in Connecticut, Democrats are gunning for a pickup in the Stratford-based HD-120, which was vacated by Republican John Harkins becoming Stratford mayor. Democrat Janice Anderson lost against Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella in 2008, although she beat Debicella in the portion of that district that comprises the 120th. She faces off against GOPer Laura Hoydick; the stakes are a little lower here, as the Dems control the state House 114-36.

After look to very much races, I will try to explain my point about 2010 elections at House level in this diary.

In few words I think they are not data what make me think democrats would lose more than 15 house seats.

Looking to the political level of incumbents and challengers, the rating of the districts, and the fundraising numbers of candidates I will make a rank of house seats, giving too the numbers of the last poll for the race if they are. This is not a rank of vulnerability, this is a rank by political level difference between the current candidates for every district looking to the political level of candidates and looking to the district too.

The rank is based in a little system of score what I create for try see better the difficult races for booth parties. Two examples of the score:

DE-AL currently a republican seat has 4.5 points of difference for the challenger party (Democratic Party). They are 3.0 points for dems by difference between political level of the candidates of booth partys, 0.5 points for dems by lead fundraising and 1.0 points for dems by the district democratic leaning.

TX-17 currently a democratic seat has 0.5 points of difference for the challenger party (Republican Party). They are 1.0 point for dems by difference between political level of the candidates of booth partys, 0.5 points for dems by lead fundraising and 2.0 points for republicans by the district republican leaning.

RANK BY POLITICAL LEVEL OF CANDIDATES FOR EVERY DISTRICT

Sure the system of score can improve still but I think give us a rank so logical.

Possitive difference for the challenger party (high weakness of the incumbent party)

4.5 points DE-AL D+07 Rep seat Last poll -10% R Research 2000 (D)

4.0 points TN-06 R+13 Dem seat

3.0 points KS-03 R+03 Dem seat

2.5 points IL-10 D+06 Rep seat

1.5 points IN-08 R+08 Dem seat

1.5 points ID-01 R+18 Dem seat

1.0 point  LA-03 R+12 Dem seat

1.0 point  NY-29 R+05 Dem seat

1.0 point  LA-02 D+25 Rep seat

0.5 points NM-02 R+06 Dem seat Last poll -02% D PPP

0.5 points IN-09 R+06 Dem seat Last poll -08% D Survey USA (R)

0.5 points ND-AL R+10 Dem seat Last poll -06% D Rasmussen Reports (R)

0.5 points SD-AL R+09 Dem seat Last poll +07% D Rasmussen Reports (R)

0.5 points TX-17 R+20 Dem seat

Tied

0.0 points AR-02 R+05 Dem seat

0.0 points NH-02 D+03 Dem seat Last poll -07% D University of NH

0.0 points PA-07 D+03 Dem seat

0.0 points MI-07 R+02 Dem seat Last poll -10% D National Research (R)

0.0 points NY-23 R+01 Dem seat Last poll +02% D 2009 special election results

0.0 points MS-01 R+14 Dem seat

0.0 points MO-04 R+14 Dem seat

0.0 points MD-01 R+13 Dem seat Last poll -13% D Tarrance Group (R)

Possitive difference for the incumbent party

0.5 points AR-01 R+08 Dem seat

0.5 points TN-08 R+06 Dem seat

0.5 points FL-25 R+05 Rep seat

0.5 points OH-18 R+07 Dem seat

0.5 points SC-05 R+07 Dem seat Last poll +07% D PPP

1.0 point  PA-11 D+04 Dem seat

1.0 point  OH-01 D+01 Dem seat Last poll -17% D SurveyUSA (R)

1.0 point  PA-08 D+02 Dem seat

1.0 point  MA-10 D+05 Dem seat Last poll -03% D McLaughlin & Associates (R)

1.0 point  VA-05 R+05 Dem seat Last poll =00% D PPP

1.0 point  AZ-05 R+05 Dem seat Last poll =00% D American Viewpoint (R)

1.0 point  AZ-08 R+04 Dem seat

1.0 point  IL-14 R+01 Dem seat

1.0 point  NY-24 R+02 Dem seat

1.0 point  PA-06 D+04 Rep seat

1.0 point  WA-08 D+03 Rep seat

1.0 point  NC-08 R+02 Dem seat Last poll +14% D PPP

1.0 point  CA-11 R+01 Dem seat

1.5 points NE-02 R+06 Rep seat

1.5 points MN-06 R+07 Rep seat Last poll +16% R PPP

1.5 points SC-02 R+09 Rep seat Last poll -01% R PPP

1.5 points AL-03 R+09 Rep seat

1.5 points CA-44 R+06 Rep seat Last poll +14% R Tulchin Research (D)

1.5 points NH-01 EVEN Dem seat Last poll -10% D University of NH

1.5 points NY-01 EVEN Dem seat Last poll +02% D Survey USA (R)

1.5 points CA-03 R+06 Rep seat

1.5 points KY-06 R+09 Dem seat

1.5 points CO-04 R+06 Dem seat

1.5 points AL-02 R+16 Dem seat Last poll +24% D Anzalone-Liszt Research (D)

1.5 points MS-04 R+20 Dem seat

…

2.5 points FL-12 R+06 Rep seat Last poll -04% R Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)

…

In the first two groups I bold emphasize the results of polls what favore incumbent party. In the third group I bold emphasize the results of polls what favore challenger party.

These groups of house races include all negative polls for incumbent party.

The first and second groups include difficult races for the incumbent party, with majoritary bad polls for the incumbent party, but not all. Between the first places, they are three republican seats where democrats are favored this year.

The number of seats in this two groups give a difference of +15 seats for republicans. But not all polls are negative for the incumbents in these groups, and not all the seats in these groups will change of party in 2010 elections.

The third group lean clearly toward the incumbent parties and is a group much more balanced with seats of booth parties. They are some unfavorable polls for booth parties, 3 for democrats and 2 for republicans. I think this group of races will give to republicans low number of net gains if the numbers change not to worse.

The polls will be surely the best information for every district, but this rank show us a so low number of districts without poll in the risk zone. This is important now for try stablish limits to loses and for see where is needed more work.

For all that, and looking specially to the polls, I think we have not evidence still of democrats will lose more than 15 seats.

About the seats where GOP is the incumbent party, like I tell before, they are three seats where democrats are favored (all in the first group of races), and they are some others what democrats can make vulnerable. Some days before, in my comments, I give a list of seven seats, but today will be six because I think the chance of win AZ-03 low without P Gordon. This is the list:

1.0 FL-25 (with J Garcia in)

1.0 PA-06

1.0 WA-08

1.5 SC-02

2.0 PA-15 (if J Callahan improves fundraising)

2.5 FL-12 (if L Edwards improves fundraising)

I think FL-25 (the effect of J Garcia running is not included in the rank still) and FL-12 are seats what give so good chance for fight strong. With the lead in  fundraise for democratic side, FL-12 district would low until 0.5 points for the incumbent party (republican party). In very few districts democrats can improve more with lower effort. For PA-15 I think J Callaham needs too take the lead fundraising, and with that, PA-15 race would be in the same level than PA-06 or WA-08 (1.0 points for the incumbent party).

They are more districts in lower level of risk for republicans. I would not forget this district and the other districts with 1.5 points where so unpopular republicans can fail.

PD: Just today one good level republican announce a bid for MI-03 and that makes I update my comments about this race. With higher level republicans, lower chance for democrats in republican open seats.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Rasmussen (2/25):

Chafee (I) 37 Caprio (D) 27 Robitaille (R) 19

Chafee (I) 38 Lynch (D) 24 Robitaille (R) 22

I’m surprised that Robitaille is even within the MoE against Lynch but this is Rasmussen and I think Caprio will win the nomination anyway. Of course things can change between now and September but I would be surprised, especially given that Caprio is dominating fundraising.

Quinnipiac (2/22-28, registered voters, 12/8-14 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 49 (44)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (44)

Undecided: 8 (11)

Joe Sestak (D): 36 (35)

Pat Toomey (R): 39 (40)

Undecided: 24 (22)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 53 (53)

Joe Sestak (D): 29 (30)

Undecided: 14 (15)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

This ought to shake up some of that growing pessimism about the Pennsylvania Senate race — although most of that pessimism seems to come from the fact that only Rasmussen and Franklin & Marshall have been polling this race reliably for the last few months. (And recall that Franklin & Marshall offers both LV and RV models, where Toomey wins the LV matchup and Specter the RV matchup, meaning that, well, Rasmussen and Quinnipiac — which is polling registered voters right now — may both be right.)

The improvement in the matchup between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey is all the more interesting because Specter and Joe Sestak have been going hammer and tongs at each other while Toomey is out of the fray. In fact, Toomey’s favorables indicate how unbesmirched he really is: he’s at 26/8, with a whopping 65% “haven’t heard enough” (note to Specter or DSCC or somebody: start defining Toomey as Club for Growth wingnut ASAP). Sestak is in a similar boat, with favorables of 18/6, while pretty much everyone has already decided about Specter, who has an approval of 48/45, which has changed very little since December’s 47/45. I hate to start prematurely acting like the Democrats have weathered the worst of the storm and the momentum going into November has changed direction, but with nothing else having significantly changed about this race in the last few months, it seems like changes in the national environment have to be at least partially responsible here for the changed toplines. (Discussion underway in conspiracy‘s diary too.)

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

This I like.

Specter 49 (44)

Toomey 42 (44)

Toomey 39 (40)

Sestak 36 (35)

Specter 53 (53)

Sestak 29 (30)

Specter has positive job approval, 48-45. Though voters don’t believe he deserves to be re-elected by a 52-38 margin.

“Sen. Arlen Specter seems to be having a good winter politically. He is back ahead of Republican Pat Toomey after having been essentially tied with him since last summer, and there remains no evidence that his primary challenger, Congressman Joe Sestak, has made much progress as we get within three months of the May primary,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Specter’s lead over Toomey is built upon a 52 – 36 percent margin among women voters, while Toomey has a small 49 – 46 percent lead among men, an indication that the gender gap remains alive and well.”

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

More evidence of things turning a little. First Strickland, now Specter. I wonder if we actually end up seeing Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts as having been the GOP high point this cycle rather than the harbinging of more doom and gloom.

Primary season continues tomorrow in Texas, which is the second state in the nation (after Illinois) to conduct its primaries. Texas also has a top-two run-off (scheduled for April 13th) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 50% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:

• TX-Gov (R): A race that started out with so much potential for wingnut-on-wingnut violence has turned into an utter disappointment. Generally disliked incumbent Gov. Rick Perry has found a way to make the teabaggers love him, and the once-formidable Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison already looks defeated. The only question at this point is recently ex-truther Debra Medina combines with KBH to take enough of the vote to force a run-off. For maximum possible damage, root for Medina to finish second.
• TX-Gov (D): Former Houston Mayor Bill White ought to be able to clean up without a problem here. His opponent, hair-care impresario Farouk Shami, has proven to be an utter embarrassment, dabbling (much like Medina) in trutherism. An ideal outcome for Dems would be White clearing 50% while Republicans have to slug it out in a second round.
• TX-04 (R): Rep. Ralph Hall has drawn about as many primary challengers as he has years in his bones – a trillion. And some of them have real money. Telecom exec and teabagger Steve Clark, who nearly duelled Hall in 2004 before he switched to the GOP, has dumped in $300K of his own gold bullion. Some Dude Jerry Ray Hall (no relation) had also promised to toss in a similar sum, but he’s never clocked in on the FEC website. Will all this money sloshing around lead to a split vote, or will the unimaginably crusty Hall get toppled? He was a lousy Dem when he was one, but I still wouldn’t mind seeing this turncoat get turned out.
• TX-18 (D): Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee faces a primary challenge from Houston city councilman Jarvis Johnson, but it’s hard to see Johnson as much of a threat – he filed at the last minute and raised less than $30K, while Jackson Lee has half a mil in the bank. (Another candidate, attorney Sean Roberts, never seemed to even file with the FEC.) SJL got the cistomary endorsement from President Obama, which Charles Kuffner interprets as a sign of strength – why would Obama stick his neck out if she were unlikely to cruise? In any event, once this primary is over, Rep. Jackson Lee needs to make a sizable contribution to the DCCC.
• TX-23 (D): We put Rep. Ciro Rodriguez on our House Open Seat Watch because he lost a primary as a sitting representative once before, and he drew a challenge this year once again, from lawyer & Iraq vet Miguel Ortiz. However, Ortiz has raised little money, and his FEC reports are a mess.
• TX-23 (R): Ciro Rodriguez may not exactly be a formidable force in politics – but neither, it seems is, Francisco “Quico” Canseco. Canseco, a wealthy businessman, spent almost a million of his own money on the GOP primary in 2008, yet lost in an upset to former Bexar Co. Comm’r Lyle Larson (who in turn lost to Rodriguez in the general). Nonetheless, Canseco is back for another shot, and yet again, he’s facing an upstart – this time former CIA agent William Hurd. Canseco is spending far less of his own money; he’s chipped in about $57K while raising only $220K overall. Hurd has pulled in $152K. Canseco may have “loser” stamped on him (he lost a 2004 GOP primary in TX-28 as well), but Ciro may prefer to face off against Hurd rather than Quico’s millions.

Other races of interest include the Dem primaries for Lieut. Gov. (former Travis Co. DA Ronnie Earle vs. union leader Linda Chavez-Thompson) and Ag. Comm’r (2006 nominee Hank Gilbert vs. permanent pain-in-the-ass Kinky Friedman). There are also several Republican primaries for seats on the Texas Board of Education (the all-important curriculum-setter and textbook-buyer) between lunatics and moderates. And though we’ve highlighted only one such race, 11 out of 20 TX GOP House incumbents have drawn primary challenges, so keep an eye out for any unusually weak results.

UPDATE: Two other GOP House primaries you might want to keep an eye on: in TX-32, Pete Sessions faces David Smith, an accountant who was one of the first anywhere to announce a Tea Party-powered challenge to a Republican incumbent. Smith’s fundraising never really caught up with his initial splash, though. And in TX-17, there’s a primary for the unenviable task of taking on Chet Edwards. Bill Flores is the guy with the money; Rob Curnock is the guy with the grassroots, and he was the 2008 candidate so he can claim dibsies.

As always, if you know of any other interesting races, please let us know in comments.

UPDATE: Trowaman tells Texas Dems to REPRESENT:

REMINDER TO TEXANS: ATTEND YOUR PRECINCT CONVENTION!

Remember in 2008 how we had a primary and a caucus? Well it happens again tomorrow. Your precinct convention (aka caucus) has no bearing on the election results but it does help determine who will go to the state convention as a delegate. I made it to Austin 2 years ago and intend to go to Corpus Christi this year. If you want to go to the state convention, you must get selected as a delegate at your precinct convention and then be selected as a delegate again at your county convention to be held on Sat., March 20th.

State Convention will be June 25-26, 2010.

IF YOU WANT TO BE A DELEGATE, SHOW UP AT YOUR PRECINCT ELECTION DAY VOTING LOCATION AT 7:15 P.M. ON ELECTION DAY MARCH 2ND.

More details here.

This is beyond disgusting:

Gov. David A. Paterson personally directed two state employees to contact the woman who had accused his close aide of assaulting her, according to two people with direct knowledge of the governor’s actions.

According to one person who was briefed on the matter, Mr. Paterson instructed his press secretary, Marissa Shorenstein, to ask the woman to publicly describe the episode as nonviolent, which would contradict her accounts to the police and in court.

Mr. Paterson also enlisted another state employee, Deneane Brown, a friend of both the governor and the accuser, to make contact with the woman before she was due in court to finalize an order of protection against the aide, David W. Johnson, the two people with direct knowledge said. Ms. Brown, an employee of the Division of Housing and Community Renewal, reached out to the woman on more than one occasion over a period of several days and arranged a phone call between the governor and the woman, Mr. Johnson’s companion.

Please resign. Now.

UPDATE (J): Politico reports that Paterson could potentially face criminal charges for witness tampering and obstruction of justice. State AG Andrew Cuomo — viewed by many as the man who’ll ride to the rescue of Democrats in the fall — is already investigating the incident.

Turns out money can’t buy you love:

Under intense pressure from Democratic Party officials, Harold E. Ford Jr., the former Tennessee congressman, has decided not to challenge Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand in the primary this fall, according to two people told of his plans.

He has told friends that, while he is convinced he could prevail against Ms. Gillibrand, he feared the winner of the primary would have little money and remain highly vulnerable to a well-financed Republican challenger at a time when the Democratic party controls the Senate by a slim majority.

Ford was coming under increasing pressure from the Democratic establishment not to run, and looks to have finally seen the futility of a run. While he initially seemed emboldened by the pressure, polls never showed him making a big dent against Gillibrand. After his terrible rollout (only Dan Coats can really compete for that title in this cycle) — coming off as an entitled and rather out-of-touch elite in interview after interview — he seems to have eventually realized it was better to save his powder and hope for a do-over some day.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-Sen-B