Month: March 2010

Let’s do this Congressional-style: in the dead of the night!

AZ-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

Terry Goddard (D): 45 (43)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 36 (41)

Other: 12 (7)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Terry Goddard (D): 38 (35)

Dean Martin (R): 43 (44)

Other: 6 (6)

Undecided: 13 (14)

Terry Goddard (D): 42

John Munger (R): 36

Other: 13

Undecided: 9

Terry Goddard (D): 37

Buz Mills (R): 43

Other: 7

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters):

Kendrick Meek (D): 25

Marco Rubio (R): 45

Charlie Crist (I): 22

(MoE: ±3%)

FL-Sen (R) (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parens):

Marco Rubio (R): 56 (54)

Charlie Crist (R): 34 (36)

Other: 1 (4)

Undecided: 8 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen (3/17, likely voters, 2/22 in parens):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 36 (36)

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 55 (53)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 5 (6)

Bob Krause (D): 31 (33)

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 57 (55)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 28 (28)

Chuck Grassley (R-inc): 57 (56)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 9 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (3/17-18, likely voters, 2/16-17 in parens):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34 (32)

Dan Coats (R): 49 (46)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 12 (15)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32 (27)

John Hostettler (R): 50 (46)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 15 (19)

Brad Ellsworth (D): 34 (30)

Marlin Stutzman (R): 41 (40)

Some other: 6 (9)

Not sure: 18 (21)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

VT-Sen (3/18, likely voters):

Pat Leahy (D-inc): 58

Republican Candidate (R): 33

Other: 2

Undecided: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

VT-Gov (3/18, likely voters):

Deb Markowitz (D): 39

Brian Dubie (R): 46

Other: 4

Undecided: 10

Doug Racine (D): 35

Brian Dubie (R): 48

Other: 5

Undecided: 12

Peter Shumlin (D): 33

Brian Dubie (R): 51

Other: 6

Undecided: 10

Matt Dunne (D): 29

Brian Dubie (R): 51

Other: 6

Undecided: 14

Susan Bartlett (D): 26

Brian Dubie (R): 51

Other: 7

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.5%)

First off, let me say that I am the Finance Director for Mike Freeman for Congress. Mike is a retired minister and retired Captain in the U.S. Navy Reserve (a chaplain). He's also the only declared Democratic candidate for the Georgia 9th Congressional district special election.

On Sunday night, Representative Nathan Deal (GA-09), a turncoat former Democrat from Gainesville, resigned his seat to run full time for Governor (as well as to avoid a potential ethics investigation).

To everyone in Georgia's surprise, it was announced that the special election to fill his seat would be on April 27 May 11th, a little over a 6 weeks away!

While this certainly was a surprise it creates a great opportunity for Democrats to achieve what otherwise would be an impossible challenge. With over 10 Republicans running currently (along with a right-wing independent) a single Democrat has taken this challenge because he thinks no race should go unopposed and because he thinks he can best represent the district.

Georgia is no stranger to special elections, with the most famous example occuring in 2007 when Democrat James Marlow narrowly missed a run-off election by around 100 votes. I was a volunteer on that campaign and it still sickens me to think of what could have been done to prevent this, especially since Paul Broun went on to win the run-off election. That race differs from this one in a very important way. Marlow was unable to “secure” the Democratic nod and 2 other Democrats participated- splitting the Democratic vote 3 ways.

In the 9th, Mike Freeman is the only Democratic candidate running. Let me repeat-the ONLY Democrat- with 11 other candidates potentially running that will be splitting the right-wing vote. So instead of dividing up the 40 percent or so of the vote by 3 different candidates (as was the case in the 10th special campaign of 2007) he will be able to garner all of the Democratic support available without opposition.

Mike isn't a professional politician unlike several of his opponents. We think that this fact alone gives us an additional advantage. The campaign strategy is to run an aggressive field plan, with 3 offices opening up this week in the district. We plan to target as many people as possible throughout the 15 counties in the district through canvassing and phonebanking and we need all the help we can get to make the run-off election.

We can shock the political establishment and draw national support which could put Democrats in position to take a Republican seat and define the narrative for the 2010 cycle. Today, we're sending out an email to our supporters asking them to make a contribution of $20.10 to our efforts to kick off Democrats efforts to pick up seats in 2010! If you'd like to join the fight, please visit our ActBlue page or our website. This race is a great opportunity to show the Republicans that Democrats are fighting back, even in very red districts.

 Crossposted at Daily Kos.

Public Policy Polling (3/20-21, Ohio voters, 6/17-19/2009 in parens)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (44)

John Kasich (R): 42 (42)

Undecided: 21 (14)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

No matter how you may spin it, under 40% is not where you want to be as an incumbent. Tom Jensen has some more:

Strickland and Kasich both win over most of their party’s voters in the horse race, with the incumbent up 70-10 with Democrats and the challenger holding a 73-10 advantage with Republicans. Kasich’s lead is due to an overwhelming 47-24 lead with independents. Independents are leaning toward the GOP everywhere this year, but the margin in Ohio is particularly wide.

With the country as polarized as it is right now it seems pretty safe to say that there won’t be a lot of Democrats or Republicans crossing party lines in their votes for Governor this year. That means the race will come down to the independents. Right now they dislike Strickland and don’t really know Kasich. For the Governor to get reelected he will have to get those voters to change their minds about him – or convince them that they dislike Kasich even more. It’s going to be a difficult fight for reelection.

Racetracker Wiki: OH-Gov

In light of today’s USA Today/Gallup polling on healthcare, Democrats will, of course, hold all 18 seats that they are defending this cycle, so we don’t need to talk about those.

Phase I – The wimps bailing out because the Republicans are DOOMED

A. Missouri – Missourians who are giving Roy Blunt competitive poll numbers right now wake up and realize, “Wait, this is Roy Blunt.”  Carnahan by 23%.

B. Ohio – Jennifer Brunner wins the primary and the general in spite of having a war chest of $1.47.  It is the ultimate grassroots campaign, with her immediate family and friends holding up signs written with magic marker on cardboard boxes in various parts of the state.  Brunner by 18%.

C. New Hampshire – Binnie, Lamontagne, and Ayotte have a three-way tie in the Republican primary, which is decided by a poker game.  Lamontagne wins, and Binnie and Ayotte both endorse Hodes and claim that Lamontagne cheats at cards.  Hodes by 17%.

D. Kentucky – Paul and Conway win the primaries.  Conway oppo researchers discover that Paul was an extra in Bonnie Tyler’s “Total Eclipse of the Heart” video, costing him 20% of his vote.  Conway by 13%.

E. Kansas – Having now insured every American, Sebelius heads back to Kansas and beats down on Jerry Moran.  Sebelius by 11%.

F. Florida – Crist switches parties but loses the Democratic primary.  He runs as the Coffee Party candidate, and Meek beats Rubio.  Meek by 9%.

G. Texas – KBH drops out.  Sharp raises shitloads of scrilla and beats Kinky Friedman, who wins the Republican nomination.  Sharp by 8%.

Phase II – Republicans in diapers.

A. Louisiana – Much like Missouri, Louisiana wakes up and collectively says, “This guy wears fucking diapers.”  Melancon by 14%.

At this point, GOPVOTER and INRepublican are shitting bricks, but hang in there guys!

Phase III – Republican incumbents who nobody in the state has ever heard of

A. North Carolina – Elaine Marshall wins this race because Burr has only 11% name recognition on election day.  Marshall by 6%.

Phase IV – Democrat recruiting successes

A. South Carolina – Stephen Colbert gets on the ballot as a Democrat and destroys DeMint.  Colbert by 34%.

B. Alaska – Two words: Mike Gravel.  Gravel by 27%.

C. Georgia – Jimmy Carter launches the greatest political comeback in history.  It’s been claimed as unlikely that Jimmy Carter will challenge Johnny Isakson.  But that’s what they said about John Hoeven and Mike Castle.  Carter by 13%.

Phase V – Batshit crazy incumbents

A. Oklahoma – Coburn reiterates that lesbians making out in bathrooms is the #1 thing on his mind – I mean the #1 problem for Oklahoma.  His position on the subject brings his approval ratings near 0%, and he is defeated by Oklahoma’s first lesbian Senator – carpetbagger Rosie O’Donnell.  O’Donnell by 3%.

Phase VI – Old men yelling at clouds

A. Iowa – Grassley adopts “get off my lawn” as a campaign slogan.  It does not resonate.  Conlin by 5%.

B. Arizona – J.D. Hayworth handily defeats McCain in the primary.  Arizona Republicans all collectively think, “WTF did we just do?”  Glassman by 21%.

Phase VII – Party switching bastards

A. Alabama – Alabama tea partiers realize that Shelby used to be a Democrat.  They all write in Judge Roy Moore.  Parker Griffith switches back to the Democrats to run for Senate.  Griffith by 17%.

This leaves the Republicans holding 3 (ID, UT, and SD) of the 19 seats they are defending.  Democrats have a 75-25 majority in the Senate, and still can’t break a filibuster on any significant issue.

It’s a start:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced today that he has contributed $1M of his campaign cash to help Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) succeed him in the Senate.

“This is a million dollar vote of confidence in Brad Ellsworth and Indiana Democrats,” said Bayh. “Though I am leaving the Senate at the end of my term, I am determined to help Brad Ellsworth and the 2010 Democratic ticket with the financial resources they need to run a successful campaign.” […]

“This unprecedented contribution will be put to good use in electing Brad Ellsworth … and in helping Democrats from the top of the ticket on down,” said IN Dem Chair Dan Parker.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m quite pleased that Bayh decided to share some of his spoils to help out Indiana Democrats with a tough election cycle. But the reality of the situation is that $1 million will only cover a small amount of the bill that was necessitated for Democrats by Bayh’s surprise decision to retire. And it’s not like Bayh is hurting for cash now; after cutting this check, Bayh will be left with a whopping $12 million left in his Senate account. He really needs to make a very substantial donation to the DSCC in order to offset a greater share of the costs of defending his open seat.

This is a nice and very welcome first step, but Bayh is still millions of dollars away from getting off the hook, lest he forever be saddled with the title of miser.

• NC-Sen: The newest Elon University poll of North Carolina finds that, as with most pollsters, that Richard Burr is strangely anonymous for a Senator: he has a favorable of 34/17. His best-known Democratic competitor, SoS Elaine Marshall, is at 18/8. The poll doesn’t contain head-to-heads, and also, bear in mind that it only polls “residents,” not even registered voters, which would explain the super-low awareness.

• TX-Sen: 20 of Texas’s Republican House members wrote a letter to Kay Bailey Hutchison, asking her to reconsider and stay on as Senator. (Recall that she planned to resign once she was done “fighting health care.”) I wonder if the letter was signed by Joe Barton, who was pretty public about his desire to take over that seat back when a resignation seemed likelier.

• UT-Sen: Tonight’s the night we get our first hard impression of what degree of trouble Bob Bennett is in. Tonight are neighborhood caucuses, where delegates to the state convention are elected. A particularly ultra-conservative-skewing convention could pose some trouble to Bennett, although with so many GOP challengers, it seems likely no one will hit the 60% mark at the convention needed to avoid a primary.

• CT-Gov: You might recognize these numbers from last week; we’ve been waiting for Quinnipiac to release general election numbers in the Governor’s race but they just don’t seem to be forthcoming, so here are their primary numbers. On the Dem side, Ned Lamont is leading at 28, followed by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy at 18, Mary Glassman at 4, Rudy Marconi at 2, and Juan Figueroa at 1. (Susan Bysiewicz has a big edge over George Jepsen, 54-10, in the AG primary, despite concerns about her eligibility for the job.) On the GOP side, Tom Foley is dominating at 30, followed by Lt. Gov Michael Fedele collapsing down to 4, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton at 4, ex-Rep. Larry DeNardis at 2, and Oz Griebel and Jeff Wright at 2.

• CA-Gov: Wondering how Meg Whitman pulled into a huge lead in the primary and a small lead in the general in California governor’s race? She’s spent a mind-boggling $27 million on her race so far this year (for a total of $46 million), compared with Steve Poizner’s $3 million and Jerry Brown’s $142K.

• OR-Gov: Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley is the first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Oregon governor’s race so far, touting his “outsider” credentials.

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett, who oh just coincidentally happens to be running for Governor this year, finally got a conviction in the Bonusgate investigation, against former state Rep. Mike Veon and several of his staffers. The timing is certainly helpful to Corbett, for whom the investigation has been dragging out and the possibility of mistrials (or no convictions before November) was starting to loom. Trials against several other former Democratic House leaders, including GOPer John Perzel and Dem Bill DeWeese, are still in the pipeline.

• WY-Gov: The Democrats are about to land a gubernatorial candidate: attorney Paul Hickey, who plans an announcement later this week. If the name is familiar, he’s the son of former Governor J.J. Hickey. Democratic State Sen. Mike Massie hasn’t ruled out a run yet either, although he may run for one of the statewide offices.

• IL-11: Here’s one more district that hasn’t been high on people’s watch lists but will need to be monitored, at least if a new internal poll from Republican pollster POS is to be believed. They find their patron, Adam Kinzinger, leading freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson 44-38.

• MA-09: With primary challenges moving onto the radar against HCR “no” votes Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, another one may be taking shape: Needham Town Meeting member (and, well, college classmate of mine) Harmony Wu has pulled papers for the race and is gauging local sentiment for a primary run against Stephen Lynch.

• NY-01: Whoever faces off against Tim Bishop for the Republicans is going to have to fight through an arduous primary to get there. Any hopes of an easy coronation for Randy Altschuler seem to have vaporized, as now Chris Cox (Republican party insider and Nixon grandson) is setting his own Wall Street-powered fundraising operation in motion. And a 3rd option, former SEC prosecutor George Demos, has had his own fundraising success.

• NY-20: One more Republican, Queensbury town supervisor Dan Stec, bailed out of the field today, suggesting that the GOP is finally coalescing behind retired Col. Chris Gibson as a standard-bearer against freshman Dem Rep. Scott Murphy, in what’s one of their slowest races to take shape.

• OK-05: Finally, we have a Democrat on tap for the open seat race in Oklahoma’s dark-red 5th, where there’s already a half-dozen GOPers jousting. Tom Guild is secretary of the Oklahoma County Democratic Party, and was a poli sci professor at Univ. of Central Oklahoma for many years.

• PA-11: Things got easier for Lou Barletta in the race in the 11th, where his Republican primary challenger, Chris Paige dropped out, citing family concerns. Paige, an attorney, was underfunded but had delivered some surprisingly-hard hits to Barletta, especially on Barletta’s signature issue of immigration.

• SC-01: The Club for Growth weighed into another GOP primary in a reddish open seat, endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott. Scott faces off in the primary against several well-known last names: Carroll Campbell III and Paul Thurmond.

• HCR: The Republican pivot from health care reform to health care repeal has some implications in the gubernatorial races. Rep. Peter Hoekstra is going full-on repeal, stopping by Sunday’s teabagger rally to pledge to fight that battle. It’s also showing up in a number of races where the Republican AG is running for Governor and joined the multi-AG suit against HCR on easily-rebuttable 10th Amendment grounds (hint to teabaggers: read Scalia’s opinion in Raich) – many in dark-red states where it probably helps more than hurts (like Henry McMaster in South Carolina). There are a few blue state AGs involved, though, like Tom Corbett (although he probably feels like he has a safety cushion to do so, thanks to his Bonusgate-related popularity). Most puzzling, though, is Washington’s Rob McKenna, who got where he is only by acting moderate. Throwing off his well-maintained moderate mask and joining forces with the wackjob likes of Ken Cuccinelli seems like a weird gamble for his widely-expected 2012 run, where success is utterly dependent on making inroads among suburban moderates.

PPP (pdf) (3/20-21, Wisconsin registered voters, 11/20-22 in parentheses):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47 (50)

Tommy Thompson (R): 44 (41)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48 (48)

Terrence Wall (R): 34 (34)

Undecided: 18 (19)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 48 (47)

Dave Westlake (R): 31 (32)

Undecided: 21 (21)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

PPP’s second look at the Wisconsin Senate race offers some pushback against the WPRI and Rasmussen polls, which have tended to show ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson with a narrow lead over Sen. Russ Feingold (and may be done with an eye toward recruiting Thompson, who’s maintained interest but also seemed very reluctant, into the race). Still, the November lead that PPP showed was large enough that it suggested “why bother” to Thompson, while this one is a decidedly closer race.

Feingold has a narrowly divided approval rating, at 45/41. Still, that’s an improvement over Thompson, with favorables in negative territory at 40/44. (The other minor GOPers in the race, Terrence Wall and Dave Westlake, are virtual unknowns at 4/17 and 2/8.) With Thompson widely-known and not so widely liked, even if he does get in, his path to victory would have to be hoping the GOP base shows up and the Dem base doesn’t. (UPDATE: Here’s a nice little tidbit I missed. “Washington lobbyists” have a favorable of 1/77. (Looks like a pollster finally found someone or something with a lower favorable than Paris Hilton.) Guess what the Feingold campaign’s line of attack against Thompson is going to be?)

UPDATE (James): There’s been some confusion in the comments over whether PPP is using a registered or likely voter screen. Their wording (“700 Wisconsin voters”) doesn’t suggest an LV model is used, but we asked PPP’s Tom Jensen to clarify the situation. The answer is that the model really isn’t either, though it falls a bit closer on the “likely voter” end of the spectrum:

We call people who voted in at least one of the last three general elections.  We don’t explicitly ask them at this point in the game if they plan to vote in the fall.  I imagine 97% of the people who answer the polls will vote this fall but since we’re not explicitly screening yet we don’t call them likely voters.

RaceTracker Wiki: WI-Sen

With filing deadlines passing in many states, the House Open Seat Watch series is beginning to come to an end. That said, we’ve seen quite a bit of action since our last installment in January, so it’s well past time for another, perhaps final, update.

As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third – available below the fold – of names that have dropped off the watch list. As always, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable – just click on any column header to sort.

We’ve got a whopping 13 new open seats on the big board — seven of them Democratic, six of them Republican. Sadly, though, the only competitive races we’ll likely see from this fresh batch of opens will come on Democratic-held turf (unless Dems can convince Joe Garcia to give FL-25 another crack).

Our list of potential retirements has been whittled down considerably with 14 incumbents dropping off the watch list. We’ve added only Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, who have attracted potential primary opponents for their recent votes against healthcare reform. (UPDATE: And Carolyn Maloney, too, due to her challenge from unabashed Wall Street Democrat Reshma Saujani.)

A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.