Market Shares Corp for the Chicago Tribune/WGN (8/28-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 34
Mark Kirk (R): 34
LeAlan Jones (G): 6
Mike Labno (L): 3
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)
One area where Giannoulias can gain some ground is among African American voters, who favor him over Kirk by 58-3 margin. This one is shaping up to be a battle of inches, though:
Buck: “In the 1950s, we had the best schools in the world. And the United States government decided to get more involved in federal education.”
There are no words.
Mark Begich has been a serious mensch, doing everything in his power to help Scott McAdams in his unlikely campaign for senator from Alaska. Now he’s trying to work the folks who can open up some serious spigots:
“I’m putting the pressure on,” Begich told The Hill. “We’re working the DSCC and others right now because I think it’s a good investment.”
Begich is right – this race is a good investment, which is why we’re asking the SSP community to dig deep and come up with $2,400 for McAdams. But we can’t wait for the DSCC to get its act together. And McAdams isn’t waiting, either:
“The DSCC and the national Democratic Party doesn’t even know my name. And that’s fine by me,” he said. “I love the Alaskan Democratic Party, they’ve been behind me 100 percent, Sen. Mark Begich has been behind me 100 percent, and that’s just fine by me.”
I love that McAdams is turning that DNC hack’s flub (remember the guy who couldn’t even ID Big Mac after he won the primary?) into a serious positive. No one can accuse him of being a D.C. Dem after that incident! And it’s one of the many reasons I think McAdams, whose pedigree is pure Alaska, will compare well to Miller, who was raised and received his degrees outside the state. (And is also creepily out-of-touch with anything resembling Alaskan values. But that’s the subject for another post or seven.)
One thing I will say: If we do want big players like the DSCC to get involved, demonstrating serious grassroots enthusiasm for McAdams is the way to do it. So please help us reach our goal of $2,400 – the equivalent of one maximum federal donation – for Scott McAdams as quickly as possible.
Every so often, people have asked us: Is the Swing State Project going to endorse anyone this cycle? Our answer has never changed: If we think there’s a special opportunity where a small blog like ours can make a real difference, we’ll seize on it. This cycle, though, we haven’t spotted any candidacies that fit the bill.
If you read SSP on a daily basis, you probably won’t be surprised by our choice – but we hope you are pleased, and that you’ll join us in springing in to action. By now, you are of course familiar with Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee for senate in the state of Alaska, and it is our pleasure to endorse him. We’re setting a goal of raising the equivalent of one maximum federal donation – $2,400 – for his campaign.
So why do we like this race?
We know this has been a tough and in many ways dispiriting cycle. There haven’t been a whole lot of bright spots on the horizon. But this race is definitely one of them. We can make a real difference. Help us get started – now.
Braun Research for cn|2 (8/30-9/1, likely voters, 8/16-18 in parens):
Jack Conway (D): 37 (42)
Rand Paul (R): 42 (41)
Undecided: 20 (16)
(MoE: ±3.5%)
Braun Research continues their biweekly polling odyssey of Kentucky with a freshly-baked survey showing Rand Paul bouncing back to a five-point lead. For those keeping score, these cn|2 polls have bounced back and forth, from 3 and 10-point Paul leads in their first two rounds, to a 1-point lead for Conway two weeks ago.
I’m not too sure if you can stitch together a narrative from high-MoE sub-samples like these, but it’s still interesting:
Paul picked up support from the last poll in Conway’s two stronghold areas from the primary, including his backyard of the 3rd Congressional District that covers Louisville. The cn|2 Poll shows Paul leading Conway by 10 points in the 6th Congressional District that covers Lexington and Central Kentucky.
The poll results for congressional districts has a margin of error of about 8.8 points in this cn|2 Poll.
Conway has narrowed previous gaps in the 2nd Congressional District in west-central Kentucky from eight to four points. And support for the Democratic candidate has swung 17 points in the 5th Congressional District – which covers Eastern Kentucky – over the last two weeks. He went from being down three points to going up 14 points in this latest poll.
This is the second poll in a row where Braun found Conway surging in the Eastern 5th CD. A month ago, Conway trailed Paul by 14% in that district, and now leads by the same margin. Are we seeing the effect of Rand Paul’s call to pull federal funds from local anti-drug initiatives (a particularly salient issue in Eastern Kentucky) at play here? While still respecting that portly margin of error, I’m guessing so.
Meanwhile, we also have some gubernatorial numbers (no trend lines):
Steve Beshear (D-inc): 44
David Williams (R): 38
Undecided: 15Steve Beshear (D-inc): 49
Phil Moffett (R): 29
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.5%)
By a 44-36 margin, voters say that Beshear deserves a second term. Considering the carnage we’re seeing for other incumbent Dem governors this year, those numbers could be a lot worse. Nevertheless, this should be a very competitive race, although likely less so if the tea-flavored ticket led by businessman Phil Moffett can win the primary against state Senate leader David Williams. Remember — this off-year race is only a year away!
One red flag about this, though, is that I suspect that Braun is using the same likely voter sample for the Senate race as for the Governor’s race. Perhaps two separate samples would have yielded similar results, but I don’t think this is the most methodologically precise approach.
For their part, the Williams campaign has released an internal poll taken by some firm called Got-Focus, showing Beshear down by 4.
SurveyUSA (8/31-9/1, likely voters, no trend lines):
John Yarmuth (D-inc): 47
Todd Lally (R): 45
Ed Martin (L): 1
Michael Hansen (I): 1
Undecided: 5
(MoE: ±4.3%)
Let’s take stock of the polling situation:
Let’s take a look at how SUSA’s estimation of the LV universe has shifted over the past three cycles:
| Nov-06 | Oct-08 | Aug-10 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | 54% | 57% | 50% |
| Republican | 33% | 35% | 40% |
| Independent | 12% | 8% | 8% |
| Liberal | 18% | 20% | 12% |
| Moderate | 43% | 44% | 41% |
| Conservative | 39% | 31% | 40% |
I’m not saying that’s right, but I am saying that’s scary!
(Hat-tip: Kendall)
(Originally from Nevada Progressive)
Not that long ago, the Nevada Republican Party truly was a “big tent”, one that could fit the more traditional “libertarian conservatives” that once dominated, pragmatic conservatives, moderates, and others. But these days, it seems to be dominated by “Tea Party, Inc.” and the radical religious right. And no one better demonstrates this better than Sharron Angle and her ascendancy in the Nevada GOP.
Perhaps this is why we’re seeing more and more “Republicans for Reid” speaking out?
Former Clark County (Las Vegas Metro) Sheriff Bill Young spoke about how Harry Reid has delivered in keeping Nevada safe.
And Former Nevada First Lady Dawn Gibbons spoke about Reid’s commitment to education, reminded us of all her work on education reform, and made sure we didn’t forget about Sharrontology’s desire to starve it to death.
Republican former First Lady Dawn Gibbons said today that she supports Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid because of his diligence and hard work, not because she wants to spite her Republican ex-husband, Gov. Jim Gibbons, who she said cheated on her and who has been a frequent Reid critic.
“I’ve known Harry Reid for a long time,” Dawn Gibbons said today during an endorsement event at UNLV. “He’s a strong advocate and a strong voice — someone we need in these trying times.”
Gibbons also noted that Reid is a good husband to his wife Landra and calls his kids daily. […]
Taking a page right out of Reid’s playbook, Gibbons criticized Reid’s Republican opponent Sharron Angle, accusing her of having an “extreme and dangerous” policy on education.
During the 15-minute event, Gibbons said the words “extreme and dangerous” four times. Students who have benefited from government grants and scholarships and spoke with Gibbons to lend their support to Reid repeated the phrase another four times.
Interesting enough, John L. Smith wrote in his column this morning about what may be a larger trend of prominent Republicans coming out to endorse Reid. Why? Well, they’ve been here in Nevada for quite some time, they understand the strong relationship Harry Reid has with our state. Plus, they’ve also seen with their own eyes Sharron Angle, her dangerous extremism, and how detrimental a “Senator Angle” would really be to our state.
No wonder why more and more Republicans, whether they be traditional “paleo-conservatives”, pragmatic business folks, or middle-of-the-road moderates, are speaking out and speaking up for Reid.
Remember that this used to be the party of Abraham Lincoln, the party of Teddy Roosevelt, the party of Dwight Eisenhower, the party of Barry Goldwater, and the party of Former Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn. This used to be a big tent for civil rights advocates, environmentalists, libertarians, old-school conservatives, rural interests, urban interests, and more. But now? Now it’s this?
Perhaps it’s the reverse of what Ronald Reagan used to say. These people haven’t left the Republican Party. The Republican Party has left them by veering so extremely to the right and nominating people like Sharron Angle who care more about getting praise from outside interests than doing what’s right for Nevada.
Sure, there have been many times when progressive Democrats were irritated by Reid. He’s certainly no progressive icon, and there have been many times I’ve taken Reid to the woodshed for not being more progressive.
But you know what? At the end of the day, Reid is not in the Senate to be some progressive icon. He’s there to serve ALL OF US in Nevada. Perhaps that’s why all of these Republicans can join Democrats, even “dirty fucking hippie” progressives like moi, in supporting Harry Reid. That’s something Sharrontology doesn’t get, and I guess that’s why she can’t win here.
• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell’s radio interview on a local station yesterday should answer any doubts about whether or not the new Tea Party fave is ready for prime time (the answer: she isn’t). Mostly it’s notable for how testy it got, but also for O’Donnell pushing back on rumors that Mike Castle is gay – rumors that apparently no one has ever heard until O’Donnell brought them up in the first place. At any rate, Castle isn’t content to just stand back and let her dig her own hole: not wanting to fall into the Lisa Murkowski trap, his camp confirms that his last-minute pre-primary ad buy will be negative against O’Donnell. He also said he won’t be debating with (or otherwise even talking to) O’Donnell… ordinarily a safe decision for a quasi-incumbent, but who knows, maybe a mid-debate implosion by O’Donnell would be all Castle needs to put this one away.
• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s out with an internal today from Fredrick Polls, and while it gives him the lead, it’s a small enough edge compared with his rather robust leads pre-Dem primary that it shouldn’t fill anybody with much confidence about where his trendlines are headed. He leads Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek 35-34-17. That comes against the backdrop of getting squeezed in both directions, with the NRSC “pledging” (I don’t know what that means, but it’s not actual reservations) $2.5 million for the race, and Meek airing a new radio ad going after Crist’s GOP past, airing Crist’s own words, including calling himself “pro-life” and a “Jeb Bush Republican.” At least Crist is getting some backing from one rather unusual corner: state Sen. Al Lawson, who just lost the FL-02 primary to Allen Boyd, just endorsed Crist.
• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Maybe I should’ve been patient yesterday instead of complaining about Quinnipiac’s lack of New York primary numbers, because they rolled them out today. At any rate, they find, as I’d suspected, things tightening in the GOP gubernatorial primary: Rick Lazio leads Carl Paladino 47-35. (“Tightening” may not be the right word, as this is their first look at the NY-Gov primary, but it’s what other pollsters have seen.) In the Senate special election, Joe DioGuardi leads David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman, 28-12-10. And in another sign that Democratic voters are only dimly aware that there’s an election this year, fully 77% of Dem voters have no idea who they’ll vote for in the Attorney General’s race. Kathleen Rice leads Eric Schneiderman by a margin of 4-3. (That’s not a typo.)
• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson has been outspending Russ Feingold 3-to-1 on the TV airwaves, which goes a long way to explaining why this is a tied race, but that may not matter much if he keeps stepping on his own free-market-fundamentalist message. Johnson found himself, in a recent radio interview, tying himself into knots by praising Communist China for having a more favorable investment climate for business than America, in part because of its “certainty.” So, let’s see… to stop America’s descent into socialism, we need to become more like the Communists, because the path to freedom is actually through the kind of “certainty” that comes from a command economy? Finally, this is probably too little too late, but Terence Wall, the guy who dropped out in a huff from the GOP field after the state convention, is now publicly touting the idea of a write-in campaign in the upcoming primary. I don’t know if he actually thinks he has a shot against a stumbling Johnson or is just engaged in some last-minute sour grapes.
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin continues to rake in the bucks in the West Virginia Senate special election. (Facing self-funding John Raese, the money issue is the main threat to Manchin… well, that, and the perilously low approvals for national Dems here.) He reported raising $393K last week, bringing his total to $1.5 million. Raese reported $717K, but $520K of that was self-funded, with only $22K from donors.
• AZ-Gov: This may not get much press in the wake of her amazing debate performance, but Jan Brewer is also engaged in an interesting strategy of retaliation, pulling her campaign ads off the local CBS affiliate, whose news department dared to question Brewer’s relationship with a key advisor who’s also connected to private prison company Corrections Corporation of America, which stands to make significant money incarcerating illegal immigrants rounded up under Arizona’s SB 1070. That’s not the same station whose reporter aggressively questioned Brewer post-debate last night… my advice to Brewer would be to go ahead and stop advertising on all local network affiliates as punishment. That’ll show ’em!
• CO-Gov: This may be kind of repetitive, but Dan Maes again turned down calls to drop out of the race today, after former state Senate president John Andrews withdrew his endorsement and told him to get out. Andrews wasn’t alone in the endorsement rescinding department: it looks like the whole ooops-no-I-actually-wasn’t-an-undercover-cop-in-Kansas thing was the fridge too far for former GOP Senator Hank Brown, who is now saying he’s “looking around” for a new candidate. Meanwhile, on the touchy subject of water law, maybe Maes should take a page from Scott McInnis and just plagiarize all his work on the subject, as at least that way he wouldn’t appear completely ignorant of the law. He just introduced an entirely new water law doctrine with his proclamation that “If it starts in Colorado, it’s our water” – ignoring the 7-state compact on use of Colorado River water and the whole concept of prior appropriation. As much as I’d like to see Jan Brewer using the Arizona National Guard to invade Colorado and reclaim its water, I don’t think the courts would let it get to that point.
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink is expanding her current TV advertising buy, throwing another $600K into keeping her introductory spot on the air in a number of non-Miami markets. Oddly, Rick Scott has been taking the week off since the primary, at least from advertising.
• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber has finally decided to go negative on Chris Dudley… it might be too little too late, but at least he’s recognizing what he needs to do (as recently as last week, he negged a DGA ad that went negative on Dudley… and this is the first time he’s aired a negative ad since 1994). The ad attacks Dudley for having “never managed anything” and never “shown much interest in Oregon” before (as seen in his decision to live in income-tax-free Washington while playing for the Trail Blazers).
• CT-04: Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella offers up a recent internal poll, via National Research. It has him within 4 points of Rep. Jim Himes, trailing 42-38 (the same 4-point margin seen in the recent round of AAF polling).
• FL-25: Here’s an offensive opportunity for House Dems that nobody should be writing off. Joe Garcia posted a lead in a recent internal poll (taken in wake of the primary, and revelations about various unsavory moments from Republican opponent David Rivera’s past) for his campaign. Garcia leads by 4 points in the poll from Benenson, 40-36 (with 5 for the Tea Party candidate and 1 for the Whig).
• MO-03: Republican challenger Ed Martin got the endorsement of the Missouri Farm Bureau, a change from their backing of Russ Carnahan in previous cycles. Carnahan didn’t show up for his meeting with the Farm Bureau, although it’s unclear whether that’s why he didn’t get endorsed or if he felt the endorsement was already lost.
• NH-02: EMILY’s List, Planned Parenthood, and NARAL are all coordinating their efforts in favor of Ann McLane Kuster ahead of the Dem primary in the 2nd, where’s she’s running against Katrina Swett, who has supported parental notification laws. In addition to a joint rally, they’re sending out a joint mailer together.
• PA-12: The NRCC is out with a poll, via POS, of the 12th, giving Tim Burns a small lead in his rematch against special election victor Mark Critz. Burns leads 48-43, quite the reversal from Critz’s 53-45 win in May. (Bear in mind that POS’s final released poll before that election gave Burns a 2-point lead.)
• Rasmussen:
• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 44%, Joe Miller (R) 50%
• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 45%
• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%
Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Predictions – September 2.
With Labor Day right around the corner and two months remaining in the journey, this update represents the way things stand at the end of the political silly season, and the beginning of the long haul. We’ve gotten a bit of conflicting data in the last few weeks. On one hand, the generic ballot looks better for the Republicans than it ever has, they lead by 6% in the pollster.com regression average. That would suggest that the GOP would be taking over the House easily. However, in the past two weeks, we’ve also seen a fair amount of positive polls by house democrats in individual districts. All along, I’ve said that while the macro environment suggests a GOP landslide, the Dems find great advantage at the micro level, running on local issues. I would also think that the Democrats’ and the DCCC’s money advantage is going to start becoming a factor very soon as well. For those reasons, the Democrats are still in control of the House majority, but their margin for error is still thin. Three races changed hands this month, 2 for the red team, 1 for the blue, mostly a result of individual race characteristics and/or statewide polling trends. Unlike 2 weeks ago, when all the movement was toward the GOP, the rating moves are a mixed bag this update, with plenty on each side.
Before we get to the ratings though, as promised, drum roll please…the house district map in 256-pixel widescreen color!
Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans
New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans
National Swing – Republicans +32
Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1
Republican Pickups (37) – AL-2, AR-1, AR-2, AZ-5, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-24, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, PA-3, PA-7, PA-11, SC-5, SD-1, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3,
Pickup Changes from last month:
Democrat to Republican – CO-4, PA-3
Republican to Democrat – FL-25
Ratings Changes for period 8/15 thru 9/1:
1.Oregon-1 – Safe D to Likely D – There has been some polling evidence, mostly internal, that David Wu could be somewhat endangered. I’m not sure I believe it, but in times like these, I’ll defer to the numbers and put this one on the board.
2.Colorado-4 – Lean D to Toss Up – Sadly, I think I may have overreacted a bit on this one. What I forgot to consider is that even if John Hickenlooper romps to victory in the governor’s race, he’ll probably only win here by a few points, not enough to pull Markey over the finish line and especially not with Ken Buck rolling to victory, as this is his base. Without any polling evidence to suggest Markey isn’t in danger, this one moves back to pure tossup.
3.Colorado-7 – Likely D to Lean D – With Ryan Frazier releasing an internal showing this race tied, this race moves down into the lean category. Frazier seems like a decent get for the GOP, and this district isn’t hugely democratic, so it isn’t out of the question that Perlmutter could go down, though the Republican clusterfuck in the governor’s race doesn’t help.
4.Missouri-3 – Likely D to Safe D – Several polls recently have Russ Carnahan leading big over his GOP opponent, including a 16-point lead by republican outfit We Ask America. That’s enough for me to take this one off the board for the time being.
5.California-18 – Safe D to Likely D – With the statewide races in California continuing to be close, the prospect of Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina carrying these districts in November has started to surface. I don’t know if it’s enough to put Cardoza in danger, but it’s enough to put the race on the board.
6.California-20 – Safe D to Likely D – Same deal here for Jim Costa, a republican up-ballot surge in the Central Valley is enough for me to take notice of this seat too.
7.Arizona-8 – Lean D to Likely D – With unheralded and poor Jesse Kelly taking out the much-stronger Jonathan Paton in the GOP primary, Gabrielle Giffords is looking like a much more sure bet for re-election, especially considering her vast financial resources and campaigning skills.
8.North Carolina-11 – Lean D to Likely D – Heath Shuler has fared very well in polling the last few times out, leading by 10+ points, so this seat shifts leftward into Likely territory.
9.Texas-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – The republicans really did themselves a favor, nominating a strong, Hispanic candidate in Quico Canseco, who is clearly doing better than expected in the polls. This is going to be a fight all the way now.
10.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up Dem Retention to Toss Up Rep Pickup – This race digusts me. Kathy Dahlkemper, for a freshman democrat, is a pretty tough cookie, having taken out a 7-term incumbent in 2008 even though Obama only tied McCain in PA-3. Her opponent is a joke too, in terms of campaigning and fundraising ability. Yet because Pennsylvania has suddenly morphed into Alabama in terms of it’s polling data, I have no choice but to move this one into the red column. Hopefully PA voters regain their sanity before November.
11.Washington-3 – Toss Up to Lean Republican – Polling last week brought forward what I thought all along, that Jamie Herrera is an extremely solid candidate for the R’s, and that despite Denny Heck’s monetary advantage, he’s facing a smart, charismatic, young, fresh face in a very bad cycle for his team. Lean R.
12.Florida-12 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – This is another race where fundraising hasn’t matched up with polling at all. Lori Edwards has been tied or leading in most polls of FL-12, but I’m still very wary of her poor cash on hand total. Plus, this is a republican-leaning district. At some point though, you have to go with polling evidence. One more lead showing Edwards ahead or tied and this goes to toss up.
13.Illinois-10 – Toss Up to Lean Democrat – Several polls now have shown Dan Seals to be leading by 6-10 points over Bob Dold in this open seat contest. I almost didn’t move this race because of the prospect of humongous republican coattails in Illinois, but at this point, if polling is correct, I think Seals is up enough to survive even a strong downballot tug for Dold. Lean D.
14.New York-29 – Lean Republican to Likely Republican – I get the general feeling that Team Blue is mailing this one in, seeing as this district will likely be eliminated in redistricting anyhow.
15.Alabama-5 – Likely Republican to Lean Republican – Polling last week showed democrat Steven Raby within striking distance. While I still think this is an unlikely pickup opportunity, democrats will be more energized here than in other parts of the country because of Parker Griffith’s ill-fated party switch.
16.Arizona-3 – With the GOP nominating their worst possible candidate here, he of the last name Quayle, John Hulburd’s chances just got a lot better. It’s hard to tell what the top of the ballot will be like in Arizona and if it will be strong enough to save Quayle by itself, but we might well have a race here after all.
17.Florida-25 – Toss Up Rep Retention to Toss Up Dem Pickup – This is my boldest change this month, but I don’t think this is going to be a great year for republican asswipes in Florida. With Rick Scott running atop the ticket and more news coming out about what a jerk David Rivera is, I think Joe Garcia has an excellent chance at winning this seat, enough that if the election were today, I think he’d win. FL-25 is now colored in blue, making it the 5th dem pickup on my board.
18.Louisiana-3 – Safe Rep to Likely Rep – With the GOP primary heading to an extremely late runoff, maybe there’s a chance that democrat Ravi Sangisetty can get out in front of it and define himself positively and make a run at this before unloading on his opponent right after the runoff. Unlikely though.
19.Michigan-1 – Toss Up to Lean Rep – A We Ask America survey last week had Benishek way up in this open seat contest, and while I’m skeptical of that survey to some degree, at R+3 in a bad environment, I think this will be a tough hold for the democrats. Rick Snyder will probably romp here in the governor’s race, which sets up a tough downballot too.
2010 House Big Board (as of September 2 update)
Solid Dem – 156 seats:
AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, IA-1, IA-2, ME-2, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-5, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MN-8, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WA-9, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4
Likely Dem – 34 seats:
Arkansas-4 (Ross)
Arizona-8 (Giffords)
California-18 (Cardoza)
California-20 (Costa)
California-47 (Sanchez)
Colorado-3 (Salazar)
Connecticut-4 (Himes)
Connecticut-5 (Murphy)
Delaware-1 (Open)
Georgia-2 (Bishop)
Georgia-12 (Barrow)
Illinois-12 (Costello)
Indiana-2 (Donnelly)
Kentucky-3 (Yarmuth)
Louisiana-2 (Cao)
Maine-1 (Pingree)
Michigan-9 (Peters)
Minnesota-1 (Walz)
North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)
North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)
North Carolina-11 (Shuler)
New Jersey-12 (Holt)
New Mexico-3 (Lujan)
New York-20 (Murphy)
New York-25 (Maffei)
Ohio-6 (Wilson)
Oregon-1 (Wu)
Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)
Rhode Island-1 (Open)
Utah-2 (Matheson)
Virginia-9 (Boucher)
Virginia-11 (Connelly)
Washington-2 (Larsen)
Wisconsin-3 (Kind)
Lean Dem – 23 seats:
Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)
Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)
Hawaii-1 (Djou)
Idaho-1 (Minnick)
Illinois-10 (Open)
Illinois-17 (Hare)
Indiana-9 (Hill)
Kentucky-6 (Chandler)
Massachusetts-10 (Open)
Mississippi-4 (Taylor)
New Jersey-3 (Adler)
New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)
New York-13 (McMahon)
New York-23 (Owens)
North Carolina-8 (Kissell)
Ohio-13 (Sutton)
Ohio-18 (Space)
Oregon-5 (Schrader)
Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)
Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)
Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)
West Virginia-1 (Open)
Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)
Toss Up – 33 seats:
Alabama-2 (Bright)
Arizona-5 (Mitchell)
California-11 (McNerney)
Colorado-4 (Markey)
Georgia-8 (Marshall)
Florida-2 (Boyd)
Florida-8 (Grayson)
Florida-22 (Klein)
Florida-24 (Kosmas)
Florida-25 (Open)
Illinois-11 (Halvorson)
Illinois-14 (Foster)
Maryland-1 (Kratovil)
Michigan-7 (Schauer)
Missouri-4 (Skelton)
Nevada-3 (Titus)
New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)
New Mexico-2 (Teague)
New York-1 (Bishop)
New York-19 (Hall)
North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)
Ohio-15 (Kilroy)
Ohio-16 (Boccieri)
Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)
Pennsylvania-7 (Open)
Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)
South Carolina-5 (Spratt)
South Dakota-1 (Herseth)
Tennessee-4 (Davis)
Tennessee-8 (Open)
Texas-17 (Edwards)
Texas-23 (Rodriguez)
Wisconsin-7 (Open)
Lean Rep – 21 seats:
Alabama-5 (Open)
Arizona-3 (Open)
Arkansas-1 (Open)
California-3 (Lungren)
California-45 (Bono Mack)
Florida-12 (Open)
Iowa-3 (Boswell)
Indiana-8 (Open)
Kansas-3 (Open)
Michigan-1 (Open)
Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)
Mississippi-1 (Childers)
New Hampshire-2 (Open)
New York-24 (Arcuri)
Ohio-1 (Driehaus)
Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)
Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)
Virginia-2 (Nye)
Virginia-5 (Perriello)
Washington-3 (Open)
Washington-8 (Reichert)
Likely Rep – 13 seats:
Arkansas-2 (Open)
California-44 (Calvert)
Indiana-3 (Open)
Kansas-4 (Open)
Louisiana-3 (Open)
Michigan-3 (Open)
Missouri-8 (Emerson)
Nebraska-2 (Terry)
New York-29 (Open)
Ohio-12 (Tiberi)
Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)
South Carolina-2 (Wilson)
Virginia-1 (Wittman)
Solid Rep – 155 seats:
AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-16, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1