Month: February 2011

• CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons has previously sounded unlikely to run (and rather sulky about it), but now he’s saying he’s “considering” the race and will make a decision by March. He’s also seeking to replace state GOP party chair Chris Healy, who he thinks favored Linda McMahon during the nomination process. Simmons also had some kind words for state Sen. Scott Frantz as an option in case he himself doesn’t run.

• FL-Sen: Already having the backing of the man he replaced as state Senate president (John Thrasher), now Mike Haridopolos got the endorsement of the Republican leader of the other chamber, state House speaker Dean Cannon. (Not that those kinds of endorsements move a lot of actual votes, but this could be harmful in the behind-the-scenes game to former state House majority leader Adam Hasner if he runs, as he’d probably have expected Cannon’s help.)

• MA-Sen, MA-06: Rep. John Tierney didn’t sound much like a candidate in the Senate race when asked about it at an appearance with area high schoolers, saying he’s focused on his current job and plans to run again. That, on top of Barney Frank’s announcement yesterday that he’s running again (and the months-ago announcement from John Olver that he’s running again) point to an increasing likelihood that two of the state’s 10 Dem Congresspeople will have to face off in a primary (unless either Mike Capuano or Stephen Lynch roll the dice on a Senate bid). One other total wild card here that came into sharper relief today: John Kerry seems to be amping up his lobbying to become Secretary of State. While there’s no indication that Hillary Clinton is in any hurry to leave, that does raise the specter of another special election if there’s a changing of the guard at SoS after the 2012 election. That possibility, and the chance at an open seat run instead of going up against Scott Brown’s millions, might induce Capuano and Lynch to keep their House jobs for now.

• NE-Sen: PPP gives AG Jon Bruning a substantial lead in the GOP Senate primary, for the right to take on Ben Nelson. He leads state Treasurer Don Stenberg 47-19, with throw-ins Pat Flynn and Deb Fischer at 7 and 6 apiece. Bruning’s faves among Republicans are 57/12.

• VA-Sen: Jamie Radtke, the principal tea party opponent to George Allen in the GOP Senate primary so far, has shown she can compete, at least on the financial front. She raised $100K in the fourth quarter; Allen didn’t report anything since his candidacy didn’t launch until the new year.

• WA-Gov, WA-AG: Democratic Rep. Jay Inslee is launching some rhetorical salvos in Republican AG Rob McKenna’s direction over health care reform in what’s very likely the beginnings of the 2012 gubernatorial general election; McKenna is one of the few blue-state AGs who signed on to the multi-state suit against HCR implementation, a possible foot-shooting move that seems more oriented toward fending off primary opposition from the right than enhancing his electability in November. By the way, if you’re wondering about who’s planning to replace McKenna in the AG slot, there’s word that ambitious King County Councilor Bob Ferguson is about to announce his candidacy next week. His likeliest GOP opponent is fellow King County Councilor (and progeny of WA-08’s Jennifer Dunn) Reagan Dunn.

• WV-Gov: It looks like we finally have some consensus on when that pesky special election for Governor is going to be. The state House and Senate ironed out a compromise that will hold the primary on May 14 and the general election on Oct. 4. Acting Gov. (and candidate) Earl Ray Tomblin has agreed to sign off on the deal, even though it contains a different primary date than he wanted.

• IA-03: Here’s some more evidence that 77-year-old Leonard Boswell is seriously gearing up for a 2012 battle to stay in the House, despite possibly facing two major opponents (first Christine Vilsack in a Dem primary, then Tom Latham in a redistricting-forced general). He named his former campaign manager Julie Stauch as his new chief of staff. (His fundraising may say otherwise, though; see below.)

• LA-03, LA-AG: Jeff Landry, who’s been in the House all of one month, is the likeliest Rep. to get squeezed in a 6-district map of Louisiana, by virtue of his lack of seniority and depopulation in his district (and the need to keep next-door LA-02 a VRA district). So, it seems sensible that he’s already contemplating some alternate plans. Rumors are flying now that the reason that AG Buddy Caldwell is planning switch over to the Republican party is because Landry is looking at challenging Caldwell in this year’s AG race (although Caldwell’s switch would just move that challenge to the primary, if it goes through). David Rivera might not even have the shortest stay among this year’s freshman class, if Landry wins the AG race and leaves the House after one year.

• Fundraising: This Politico piece on fundraising among House members has some interesting red flags from Q4 that may portend retirement. On the GOP side, CA-41’s Jerry Lewis raised $1,700, while MD-06’s Roscoe Bartlett raised all of $0. For the Dems, NY-05’s Gary Ackerman raised $924, NY-28’s Louise Slaughter raised $320, and MI-05’s Dale Kildee raised the strangely specific sum of $1.42. They also point to how fundraising may have dried up for several likely casualties of redistricting, including MI-09’s Gary Peters (down to $88K CoH), IA-03’s Leonard Boswell ($66K CoH), PA-12’s Mark Critz (net negative-$36K), and LA-03’s Jeff Landry (net negative-$24K).

• Redistricting: As expected, the battle over Florida’s Fair Districts initiative is moving into the courts, starting with a new suit filed by the amendments’ backers (including the League of Women Voters and NAACP) demanding that Rick Scott re-engage the process of seeking VRA preclearance for the chances to Florida’s system. (Scott has apparently been dragging his feet on preclearance in hopes that the initiative’s requirements won’t be in place by the time of 2012 redistricting, which could let the GOP legislature gerrymander to their hearts’ content.) Meanwhile, the GOP legislature in Georgia is already consolidating their power to take advantage of their control of the trifecta there: they removed primary responsibility for map-drawing from the nonpartisan Carl Vinson Institute at UGA, and instead are creating a new Legislative and Congressional Reapportionment Office more directly under their control.

• Census: If you tried to open the ftp version of the new Census data yesterday and found yourself looking at incomprehensible txt files (that, if you scroll through them quickly enough, look like you’re able to see through The Matrix), fear not. They’re available via American FactFinder now, and even through interactive widget form.

• FEC: I’m not sure how many max-out donors we have among our readership, but the FEC has raised contribution limits for this cycle, meaning you can give a little more to your favorite candidate or committee before hitting the ceiling. You can now give up to $2,500 per candidate and $30,800 per committee.

• Trivia: I had absolutely no idea this number was so low: there have been only four open seat Senate races in Texas since the 1920s. (Not only do Senators there tend to have long tenures, but vacancies tend to manifest themselves in special elections.) The races were in 1948, 1952, 1984, and 2002.

As devoted Swingnuts are aware by now, the Census Bureau has produced its first batch of redistricting-level data. Because Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia all have state-level elections this year, they get bumped to the head of the line. So that means we now know the current population of each congressional district as presently drawn. While the Census Bureau didn’t exactly make this data available in the most accessible format, the greasemonkeys down in the Skunkworks at SSP Labs have crunched the numbers, and here’s what they look like. Note that the “Deviation” column means how far off each current district is from the new ideal (and in the case of LA and NJ, we divided by their new seat totals of 6 and 12 respectively):

A big break for Claire McCaskill:

Rep. Sam Graves will not run against Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.) in 2012, the Missouri Republican announced Thursday, saying it was “an agonizing decision.”

“However, I also believe that I can have a greater impact on federal policy in the next six years as a chairman in the House,” the House Small Business chairman said in a statement. “I am the first chairman in the history of the sixth Congressional district and there is much I still want to accomplish in Washington.”

Translation: I’d rather be a big kahuna in the House than risk trading that for a back-bench seat in the Senate, where we might not even regain the majority. Of course, there’s still no shortage of GOPers lining up to take  on McCaskill – and indeed, the fundraising is starting strong, as Reid Wilson observes, with Ed Martin pulling in $229K in December alone, while Sarah Steelman collected $208K.

So even without Graves, McCaskill is likely to draw a strong opponent. That, combined with Missouri’s reddening, has to have the incumbent praying for a truly epic cat fud fight. All the more so, since McCaskill apparently has a political deathwish:

McCaskill, D-Mo., this morning joined with Republican senators in a far-reaching anti-deficit plan that could impose cuts on Social Security, Medicare and spending programs vital to Americans.

“This is a bold step; it has risks. If this bill is distorted and twisted, it could cost me my Senate seat,” McCaskill said on the Senate floor.

Make no mistake about it: McCaskill is signing up on a plan to cut Medicare and Social Security – and pretty much everything else. This is retarded and wrong on so, so many levels. It also shows how poor her political skills are, because a) it won’t take any “distorting or twisting” for her opponents to argue that she wants to cut these programs – that’s exactly what the CAP Act is designed to do; b) uh, of course the GOP will lie about McCaskill – they successfully cast themselves as the defenders of Medicare against evil, evil Democratic cuts last cycle, and this will be no different, even if it is Bob Corker’s bill; and c) of course the GOP will tar McCaskill as a big-spending libruhl regardless of what she does. She’s even making it easy for them:

She continued: “TARP? Let’s be honest. It was a genius decision in many ways and it stabilized our economy.”

TARP was genius. Jesus christ. I don’t think “I voted for it before I voted against it” was as bad. I don’t like where this is going one bit.

• CT-Sen: This is starting to sound like a broken record, but Rep. Joe Courtney is in the news again for saying that he’s still vaguely interested in getting into the Dem Senate primary. At least he has a somewhat more definite timetable, saying he’ll decide “by the end of this month.”

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac is out with its first Florida poll of the 2012 cycle, and it’s remarkably similar to the other polling they’ve been doing so far this cycle (like OH and PA): they find a surprisingly high number of people with no opinion about the incumbent Democrat, and find him polling in the mid-40s on a generic ballot question, but still winning by an OK margin. Bill Nelson’s specific numbers vs. Generic R are 41-36; his approvals are pretty good at 45/21 and his re-elect is 43/33. On a related note, Nelson has the most cash of any Dem heading into 2012, in what, if only by virtue of the state’s population, may be 2012’s most expensive Senate race; he has more than $3 million CoH.

• MA-Sen, MA-04: I was a little surprised to see Barney Frank’s name even on the long list of potential candidates for the Massachusetts Senate race – he’s 70 years old and, if for some reason there’s a Democratic wave election in 2012 he could get his gavel back – so it’s not unusual to see his announcement today that he’s running for another term in the House in 2012.

• MN-Sen: Courtesy of Minnesota Public Radio, here’s a long list of additional Republicans who aren’t running for Senate in Minnesota. (The list of ones who are running would be more interesting but is much shorter, since it has zero names on it, with the possible exception of Harold Shudlick, who lost the 2006 Senate nomination with a proto-teabag candidacy.) Most notably it includes former state Rep. Laura Brod (who’s apparently on the short list to become a Univ. of Minnesota Regent instead), but also state Sen. Julie Rosen, state Sen. David Hann, Hennepin Co. Sheriff Rich Stanek, attorney Ron Schutz, and Bill Guidera, who is the state party’s finance chair but is employed as “lobbyist for News Corp.”  A Roll Call article from several weeks ago buried a few other “no thanks” too: businesswoman Susan Marvin, former T-Paw CoS Charlie Weaver, and former state Rep. Paul Kohls. (H/t Brian Valco.)

• MT-Sen, MT-AL: After a lot of rumors last week, it’s official as of today: Republican Senate candidate Steve Daines is dropping down to the open seat House race, where he probably becomes something of a frontrunner (rather than a speed bump for Denny Rehberg). He can transfer over the $200K he raised for his Senate race. The Fix has some additional names who might consider the House race (in addition to Democratic state Rep. Franke Wilmer, who started floating her name several days ago): businessman Neil Livingstone and state Sen. Roy Brown for the GOP, and state Sen. minority whip Kim Gillan, state Sen. Larry Jent, up-and-coming state Sen. Kendall Van Dyk (netroots candidate, anybody?), or attorney Tyler Gernant.

• WI-Sen: Is this the opening salvo of the 2012 Senate race? It comes from a familiar face (one who lost the 1998 Senate general election and 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary), ex-Rep. and real estate development magnate Mark Neumann. He engaged in the traditional pre-announcement tactic of penning an op-ed attacking the incumbent, in this case Herb Kohl and his vote against HCR repeal. If so, it would set up the battle of the self-funders.

• WV-Sen: The NRSC is out with its first ad of the cycle, and they’re getting right to work going after Joe Manchin, after he surprised at least some people by keeping ranks with the Dems and voting against HCR repeal. No trucker hats or plaid here… instead, they seem to be taking that “San Francisco values” (read: gay gay gay!) tack pioneered by Sam Graves in a notorious MO-06 ad in 2008, by comparing joined-at-the-hip pals Barack Obama and Joe Manchin to other legendary campy duos, like Sonny and Cher, and Siegfried and Roy.

• IN-Gov: Somebody’s not waiting for Mike Pence to make his move on the Indiana governor’s race! I say “somebody” because I really have no idea who this guy is, although he’s one step up from Some Dude by virtue of having been a Hamilton County Commissioner. Jim Wallace is the first to actually say he’ll seek the Republican nomination; he’s touting his business background (as a consultant to health insurance companies).

• WV-Gov: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such a chaotically-planned election before, but now the state House and Senate in West Virginia can’t agree on what date they’re going to set for the special election to replace Joe Manchin. The House moved it up to Sep. 13, but then the Senate’s bill kept it at Oct. 4, which was the date proposed by Earl Ray Tomblin. At least they’re in agreement on the primary date, June 20. (There’s also a rundown on filings so far: the three Dems to file are the one’s you’d expect (Tomblin, Natalie Tennant, and Rick Thompson), while in addition to two expected GOPers (Betty Ireland, Mark Sorsaia), there’s also one whose name I hadn’t heard before, state Del. Patrick Lane.

• FL-25: You know you’re in for a short stay in the House when the Beltway media is already compiling lists of likely successors during your first month on the job. The Fix’s list of possible Republicans who might pick up after David Rivera in the event of a resignation/expulsion includes state Sen. Anitere Flores, former state Sen. Alex Villalobos, state Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, and former state Rep. J.C. Planas.

• MS-LG: With Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant the likeliest person to become Mississippi Governor in 2011, the jockeying to become Lt. Gov in 2011 (and thus probably become Governor in 2019) is underway. Republican state Treasurer Tate Reeves is the first to announce his bid.

• DCCC/Crossroads: The announcement that they were targeting 19 vulnerable Republicans this early in the cycle was a good move for the DCCC, but a lot of the wind subsequently went out of their sails when it was revealed (courtesy of Nathan Gonzales) that the effort was really more of a press release backed up by tiny radio ad buys, with a total of about $10,000 spent, working out to about $500 per member (and as low as $114 in VA-05, which is a cheap market, but still…). That was met by a retaliatory buy from the Karl Rove-linked GOP dark money outfit American Crossroads, where the clearly telegraphed subtext was “You’re broke; we have money.” They spent $90,000 to air radio ads in those same markets, which at less than $5,000 per member is still chicken feed but, in terms of The Math, noticeably larger. Of course, that $114 is a pretty good return on investment, if it got Robert Hurt publicly backpedaling on just how much he wants to cut infrastructure spending.

• Mayors: The Las Vegas mayoral race just took an interesting turn yesterday, when former school board president (and more notably, wife of outgoing mayor-for-life Oscar Goodman) Carol Goodman reversed course and said that she would, in fact, run for mayor. By virtue of name rec, that may catapult her to the front of the line.

• Redistricting: This may be our first-ever episode of Swingnuts in the News, but Josh Goodman (now writing for Stateline) has an interview with Dave Bradlee (of Dave’s Redistricting App fame) in his new article on the rise of DIY redistricting in general. (He also briefly cites abgin’s now-legendary map of New York state.) He also points out that at least two states, Idaho and Florida, will make similar applications available online for tinkerers, as well as the Public Mapping Project’s efforts to create a more comprehensive public service.

• Census: The 2010 data for Louisiana, Missisippi, New Jersey, and Virginia is out… at least in cumbersome FTP form. American FactFinder won’t have the data until later today or tomorrow. (Looks like Dave Wasserman’s already cracked open the data and has tweeted one interesting tidbit: New Orleans’ population came in 29.1% lower than 2000, and even 3.1% below the 2009 ACS estimate.

Just for fun, I decided to see how pro-GOP you could make a map of New Mexico. My strategy was to pack as many Democrats as possible into a super-Democratic district running from Albuquerque up along the Rio Grande, thus making the other districts as Republican as possible. This is what I came up with:



The districts are:

NM-01 (Blue)

32% W, 6% N, 57% H

74%O-25%M

NM-02 (Green)

44% W, 18% N, 34% H

49%O-50%M

NM-03 (Purple)

49% W, 44% H

48%O-50%M

Two McCain districts in a state that voted for Obama by a 15% margin. That’s what horrendously ugly gerrymandering like this can do. You could actually get the blue district up to the high 70’s by taking it into the Navajo Reservation area, but that would inevitably end up splitting up the Navajo Reservation which was too much for even this map. What’s really interesting to me about this map is that all of the districts are majority-minority here, but two of them still vote Republican.

I have done a couple things I’ve never seen anywhere else in an Ohio map.  I’m not sure if it’s good or bad.

Here’s the state:

Let’s start in the Southwest

1st-yellow: Steve Chabot

Chabot loses some bluer precincts to the east and expands into the suburbs, probably making this Likely R rather than Toss-Up.  Lean R in a bad year like ’08.  

2nd-green: Jean Schmidt

Schmidt’s district is safe for anybody but her.  I don’t really think any Democrat could hold it, so if she goes down and is replaced by someone with the same voting record but not as crazy, the GOP shouldn’t mind.  They will hold this 8 of the 10 years, at least.  Plus, endangering her is the only way to make Chabot safe.

3rd-tan: Mike Turner

Turner loses a rural county and adds some suburbs.  If anything, it gets a little bit safer.

8th-red: John Boehner

The Speaker must take on some new territory.  He might live out of the district, in which case he can swap a bit of territory with Chabot for no partisan effect.  Anyone worried about a defeat, incumbents don’t lose in R+10 districts without a huge scandal or gaffe (see Sali, Bill)

4th-yellow: Jim Jordan

The RSC chair swaps some rural counties.  That’s basically it.  Except he doesn’t really live in the district.  I should have looked into that before I drew the map.  However, who is going to challenge him and win?  He can run in the 4th anyways.

5th-turquoise: Bob Latta

Latta takes on the (swingy? lean r? someone from ohio inform me) Toledo suburbs and some other swingy areas.  It’s probably only Lean R rather than Likely, but it would be an uphill climb for any Democrat.

I created the Columbus Dem vote sink many people agree should exist, most likely eliminating Steve Stivers, the most moderate Ohio GOPer anyways.

7th: Steve Austria-gray

Austria takes on more of the Columbus suburbs and the whiter parts of Columbus.  He’s still safe.

15th: Columbus–area Democrat–salmon

It’s safe for our side, and makes the surrounding districts safe as well.

12th: Pat Tiberi-light blue

Tiberi’s district gets much safer.  He could face a primary challenge I guess, or he’ll tack right a bit.

Then there’s the 6th: Bill Johnson-pink in zoomed in maps, blue in statewide map

Johnson gets much safer with the elimination of the rest of Mahoning County.  He still has Athens in the district, though.

16th: Jim Renacci-orange

Renacci loses inner-city Canton, something else I’ve never seen.  This should make him safe, with an already R-tilting district.

This sets up the incredibly ugly:

13th: Tim Ryan-bright green

Taking in industrial areas along Lake Erie, Democratic Mahoning and Warren Counties, inner-city Canton, Alliance, and the most populated parts of Portage County, Ryan has an incredible gerrymander going for him.  It’s ugly, but makes Kucinich’s elimination possible and makes Renacci safe.

14th: Steven LaTourette-brick

I’d be concerned about replacing him in a completely 50 50 district.  He’s probably safe, but a successor might not be.

How was this all possible?

By using water contiguity in Lake Erie.

9th: Marcy Kaptur-gold

Taking in Toledo, Lorain County, and Western Cuyahoga, Kaptur’s new district is an uber-Dem vote sink.  She could be primaried by Kucinich, as this district is more liberal with less of a Toledo influence in the Democratic primary, and he probably doesn’t have anywhere else to go.

10th: Betty Sutton-pale pink

Sutton takes in much of Kucinich’s Cleveland Suburbs, the Democratic parts of Summit County, and some exurbs in between for a safe district that is shaped similarly to her own but contains some new territory.

11th: Marcia Fudge-puke

A fitting color for a representative who tried to weaken ethics laws.  Fudge’s district is slightly under 50% Black, which could be tweaked if it looked uglier (possibly)

And there you have it!

Public Policy Polling (1/28-30, California voters, no trendlines):

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 51

Tom Campbell (R): 37

Undecided: 12

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 55

Carly Fiorina (R): 35

Undecided: 9

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 54

Darrell Issa (R): 33

Undecided: 13

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 52

Steve Poizner (R): 34

Undecided: 14

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 59

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 25

Undecided: 17

Dianne Feinstein (D-inc): 55

Meg Whitman (R): 35

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.3%)

PPP’s last couple polls (Nebraska, Arizona) have had some bad news for Democrats, so here’s a nice refreshing chaser, albeit one that shouldn’t offer any surprises. If Dems with lukewarm faves (Barbara Boxer, Jerry Brown) could win easily in the Dems’ worst year in ages, the state’s most popular politician (Dianne Feinstein, with 50/39 approvals) in a presidential year should be no contest. That’s what PPP finds.

The only Republican here with even remotely positive favorables is Tom Campbell (who already lost to Feinstein once, in 2000, although he’s better known now for losing the 2010 Republican primary to Carly Fiorina), although that may have to do with his little-knownness (21/18) than his moderatism. Everyone else is deep in the hole, no more so than Ahnold, at 25/65 (I think even “The Last Action Hero” tests better than that). My one quibble here is that none of these A-listers are likely to run, paving the way for an even sadder sack in the form of ex-Assemblyman and 2010 GOP primary loser Chuck DeVore, who should have been tested. (He’s already said he’s running for “something” in 2012; unless he plans to out-teabag one of Orange County’s House members, that means the Senate race.)

Public Policy Polling (1/28-30, Arizona voters, no trendlines):

Terry Goddard (D): 40

Jon Kyl (R-inc): 50

Undecided: 9

Phil Gordon (D): 33

Jon Kyl (R-inc): 54

Undecided: 13

Ann Kirkpatrick (D): 35

Jon Kyl (R-inc): 51

Undecided: 14

Janet Napolitano (D): 41

Jon Kyl (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This race hasn’t been high on Democrats’ wish lists, but it’s one of those races hanging around the margins that could become interesting under the right circumstances: with one or more of a Jon Kyl retirement (as has been increasingly rumored lately), an unusually good Dem candidate, and/or a substantial Dem uptick going into 2012. Without any of those (actually, I’d have considered Janet Napolitano that good candidate, but this poll seems to suggest otherwise), as this poll shows, it’s not really in close contention. I’d have been curious to see PPP try someone other than Kyl out for the GOP, but if he retires, there’ll be plenty of time to sort that out.

Kyl has 47/40 approvals, while Napolitano, seemingly having lost her bipartisan bona fides by joining the Obama administration, is at 40/55. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is even more noted for his bipartisanship… to the extent that he seems to have pissed everyone off equally; he’s at 19/37. The most popular Dem is ex-AG and 2010 gubernatorial candidate Terry Goddard at 43/35.

Speaking of a potential replacement for Kyl, AZ-06 Rep. Jeff Flake (who’s been known to be interested in a promotion) is now publicly saying that he’d think about running if Kyl retired. Flake is probably the second most libertarian-minded member of the whole House GOP, but that’s probably not a handicap for him running statewide in Arizona; he might wind up as strong a contender as Kyl. An open AZ-06 as currently configured wouldn’t be terribly interesting to Dems, as the heavily-Mormon, Mesa-based district is R+15… although given Arizona’s commission-based redistricting, the 6th could change a variety of ways.

Richard Lugar, to his credit, has basically spent the last few months dressed up in rodeo-clown garb, prancing around and daring the tea partiers to charge him. Looks like he’s got the match he’s been hankering for (or at least resigned to):

Indiana State Treasurer Richard Mourdock is taking the steps to formally launch a primary challenge against six-term Sen. Richard Lugar in the coming weeks, according to multiple Republicans familiar with his thinking….

“Mourdock is meeting folks around town. He was here yesterday. I’m expecting a public announcement very soon,” one conservative operative told POLITICO.

Offered another GOP player, “I understand Mourdock is planning to jump into the race soon. Sounded like weeks, not days.”

There’s at least one obstacle to Mourdock, though, beyond Lugar’s decades of goodwill (and considering that all we have here are anonymous sources, maybe we shouldn’t consider Mourdock’s run a done deal yet): state Sen. Mike Delph, who’s also been talking himself up for the teabagger challenge but hasn’t announced yet or even formed an exploratory committee. Indiana doesn’t have runoffs, so a three-way race has a major chance of playing out the way the 2010 Dan Coats/John Hostettler/Marlin Stutzman race did: with the right-wing vote split and the establishment guy winning. Local tea partiers, as we mentioned a few days ago, have been trying to coordinate to unite behind one contender, but in terms of finding that one person, Politico finds one person close to that effort saying “we just aren’t there yet.”