Month: April 2011

2:02am: 3,575 of 3,630 precincts, Klop behind 726,325 to 728,203. And sorry for any confusion about the timestamps – Jeff insisted on using something called “Central” time, but I’m here to restore Eastern time to its rightful glory.

1:45am: 7 more precincts just came in, and Kloppenburg is now behind 1,898 votes.

1:40am: It’s so close that I’m not sure this is meaningful, but our model now predicts a KloJo win by 50.04% to 49.96%.

1:31am: Per that table just below, I count about 97 outstanding precincts, in counties that Kloppenburg has won by an average of 60% so far tonight.

1:24am: DavidNYC here – taking over the con from Jeff, who has done heroic work tonight. Not counting absentees, etc., this is where I’m seeing outstanding precincts:

---

My nails now are quite bloody.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.

12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes.  With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory…but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we’ve seen plenty tonight.

12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected – most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.

11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo – most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).

11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k.  This moves the needle to 4.90%.

11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty.  The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser…or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.

11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.

11:40pm: We’re at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.

11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts…but no residents.  This moves the needle to 3.87%…count me pessimistic.

11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle’s at 4.45%…where’s still just a little bit short of where we need to be.

11:23pm: I’ve been neglecting Las Vegas…where the Clark County is not showing any results for me.  But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!

11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead.  The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting…but who knows what’s actually reported.

11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo’s swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around….a big improvement.

11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as “wards”), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I’ll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty…and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).

---

The sucker in me likes being optimistic.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.

11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need.  Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.

10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.

10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes.  Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26.  This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.

10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported.  Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo.  The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.

10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average).  Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).

10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump.  We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.

10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.

10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population.  This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.

10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.

---

Let’s keep going…

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

10:13pm: Thread trois.

10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.

10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win.  The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting.  However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.

9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39.  I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.

9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser’s assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes.  “Outstate” – if there is one – is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo – more than what’s needed.

9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th.  The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]

9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo’s favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before.  Hopefully, the trend continues.  Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County – which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.

9:22pm: Prosser’s doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs’s are only 8%…which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.

9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.

---

It’s a progressive party.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

9:15pm: Follow the party here.

9:10pm: More of Milwaukee’s reported now, which is enough improvement such that Prosser’s now 1.5% below his primary performance.  KloJo will still need more to win this though.

9:06pm: According to Journal-Sentinel, Chris Abele now has a 60-40 lead over Jeff Stone with 10% reporting. Hopefully, this means we can expect some swings towards KloJo in Milwaukee County.

9:01pm: More results now – 12% in. Prosser’s underperforming everywhere…except Milwaukee County, Dane County, and the not contiguous “College Towns”, comprised of Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Portage counties.  Hopefully, this will change.

8:56pm: Clarendon County has reported in South Carolina, and the Dem is now leading 52-47.

8:45pm: More of Wisconsin in now, and Prosser is now slightly underperforming (-0.23%). KloJo has a 202-vote lead, but the disgustingly Republican Milwaukee burbs haven’t reported just yet. (Keep in mind, Waukesha + Ozaukee + Washington gave Bush a larger margin than Milwaukee gave Kerry).

8:40pm: With our first Milwaukee County precincts, Jeff Stone is up by 1%. Prosser at par with his primary performance now (+0.06%).

8:34pm: Kenosha County is going 64-36 for Prosser, but it’s also quite heavily polarized. With the last dump, Prosser is doing 1% better than in the primary, about 6% over what he needs overall.

8:30pm: 2.5% reporting now, with Prosser doing about 2% better than in the primary (assuming uniform counties). It’s still early – this is plenty likely to change.  We need Prosser to do about 5% worse for KloJo to win.

8:19pm: Ten precincts in now (does this mean I have to stop using just my fingers to count?). Prosser’s doing about 5% better than he did in the primary, but turnout in Dane County is 2x.

8:13pm: Hey, one precinct in Dane County (Madison)!  Kloppenburg’s at 60%.  Turnout in this one precinct is 2.5x what the average Dane County precinct was in the primary. (The flipside is that Prosser is doing 8.6% better in this one precinct than he did throughout Dane County in the first round.)

8:02pm: In South Carolina, heavily Dem HD-64 currently has a Republican lead of 5 votes, but only one of two counties has reported. (And I’m guessing not the Dem one, either.)

7:51pm: Checking out these Chicago results real quick – Rahm’s picks aren’t doing too well in the 24th and 25th wards.  Crusty old jackass Bernard Stone is losing quite handily in the 50th, and Che “Rhymefest” Smith (co-writer of Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks”) is holding incumbent Willie Cochran to 53% in the 20th.

Once again, Central Time shall prevail!

---

And so it is, 15 minutes to takeoff.

On the docket:

• The marquee event, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between the conservative-leaning incumbent David Prosser and Dem-leaning JoAnne Kloppenburg.
  

• Milwaukee County Executive, which Scott Walker kindly left open between Walker crony Jeff Stone and  Dem Chris Abele.
  

• The first test of Mayor Emanuel’s clout, with numerous City Council runoffs in Chicago, which Rahm hasn’t been shy to wade in.
  

• Various local offices throughout Las Vegas and Clark County.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

There are several elections around the country tonight. The main event, of course, is the Supreme Court race in Wisconsin, pitting incumbent David Prosser against JoAnne Kloppenburg. Also in the Badger State, Democrat Chris Abele faces off against Republican Jeff Stone for Milwaukee County Executive. Polls close at 9pm Eastern / 8pm Central. AP results will be here.

Elsewhere, there’s the first round of the Las Vegas mayoral election tonight, and there are a bunch of city council runoffs in Chicago (the first real test of Rahm Emanuel’s power). And there’s also a special election for South Carolina’s vacant 64th state House district.

So, toss in your predictions in comments. Also, if you know of any good local websites reporting results for these races, please share those as well.

UPDATE: I also added a poll on the Supreme Court race.

It’s hard to tell how a nonpartisan commission will draw maps. As we’ve seen with Iowa’s first round of maps, they can make some unusual choices. For this map, I tried to hew as closely to the existing districts as possible, within reason; there are some odd territorial splits (such as WA-09 jumping across Puget Sound) that might make more sense to a local than to a East Coast resident like myself.

I tried to limit city and county splits where possible, but sometimes it was unavoidable. The biggest split is Tacoma, half of which I had to put in WA-06 and half in WA-09. I also tried to either ignore partisan data or encourage competitive districts. Thanks to the way the map is set up currently, the latter was pretty easy to accomplish; there are five districts that I would consider competitive (WA-02, 06, 08, 09, and 10).

State

Seattle area

WA-01 (blue) – Instead of jumping across Puget Sound, it stretches across northern King County and farther up into Smohomish. Old district: 56.2% Murray, new district: 56.5% Murray.

WA-02 (green) – Expands very slightly, picking up a little bit of Snohomish and dropping the one random descent into eastern King County. Old district: 50.5% Murray, new district: exactly 50.0% for each (the margin is 118 votes in favor of Rossi).

WA-03 (purple) – This one probably changes the most. Northern end of the district is chopped off, and it moves east to Yakima. Old district: 52.5% Rossi, new district: 55.5% Rossi.

WA-04 (red) – Moves east, losing Yakima and gaining Walla Walla. Old district: 64.4% Rossi, new district: 63.9% Rossi.

WA-05 (yellow) – Loses Walla Walla, gains bits of Franklin County. Old district: 58.6% Rossi, new district: 58.4% Rossi.

WA-06 (teal) – Drops part of Tacoma, picks up islandy parts on the west side of Puget Sound. Old district: 53.1% Murray, new district: 53.0% Murray.

WA-07 (grey) – Seattle and a bit of the suburbs south of it. Old district: 81.0% Murray, new district: 81.5% Murray.

WA-08 (light purple) – Loses Pierce County. Adds a bit of the inner Seattle-area suburbs. Old district: 50.8% Rossi, new district: 53.0% Murray.

WA-09 (sky blue) – Loses the southwestern swath of territory, picks up a bit on the northern and eastern borders. Old district: 52.8% Murray, new district: 54.1% Murray.

WA-10 (magenta) – The new seat. Most of Pierce County, all of Thurston County, and some parts south and southwest of Thurston. 50.9% Rossi.

I don’t know if anyone got drawn out of their districts, but the only incumbent that would probably be seriously miffed is Reichert. Losing Pierce County would be a blow to his re-election chances. He could always move to the new WA-10, though.

The wait is over, folks:

And so it goes:

Former appointed Sen. George LeMieux announced this morning that he’s seeking the GOP nomination for Senate in 2012. LeMieux launched a campaign website and made a video announcement on the conservative Shark Tank blog, a favorite venue for Marco Rubio during his successful 2010 candidacy.

LeMieux joins state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, R-Merritt Island, in the GOP primary race. Former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner of Boca Raton is also exploring a run. All are eyeing the seat of two-term Democrat Bill Nelson.

I find George LeMieux so boring that I just have nothing else to say at this moment.