Tag: VA-Gov

Rasmussen (2/4, likely voters, 12/4 in parentheses):

Creigh Deeds (D): 30 (39)

Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (39)

Some other candidate: 6 (4)

Brian Moran (D): 36 (41)

Robert McDonnell (R): 39 (37)

Some other candidate: 4 (5)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (36)

Robert McDonnell (R): 42 (41)

Some other candidate: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen polls the Virginia governor’s race a second time, meaning we now have trendlines… and, frankly, they don’t look very appetizing. Ex-Del. Brian Moran led AG Robert McDonnell last time by 4, but now he’s trailing by 3, while Del. Creigh Deeds fell from a tie to a 9-point deficit.

Part of the problem here may be that, while McDonnell has long since consolidated Republican support, the three Dem contenders are in primary attack mode, driving their numbers down as they target each other. The numbers in the McAuliffe/McDonnell matchup don’t seem to have budged much, which suggests that McAuliffe may be doing the best job right now of the three of getting his message into the media… although that still doesn’t seem to translate into a good performance in the general matchup.

UPDATE (James L.): Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen weighs in:

I think the answer here is in the timing of the poll being conducted. It was done Wednesday night. McDonnell resigned as Attorney General Tuesday and that was all over local tv news casts Tuesday, and then all over the state’s newspapers on Wednesday. That level of exposure is unusual for a 24 hour media cycle this far out from November, and I bet it helped McDonnell to lead in the poll. I certainly don’t think there was any nefarious intent in the timing of the poll but that sort of thing does have an impact.

McAuliffe 18%

Moran 18%

Deeds 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Huge number of undecideds but check out the approvals.

“Moran has the best favorability marks from likely primary voters, with 34% having a positive opinion of him and just 10% viewing him negatively. McAuliffe is the most well known of the candidates, which cuts both ways. He has the second highest favorable rating, 30%, but also has easily the highest unfavorable rating at 23%. Deeds is the least well known of the trio with 67% of respondents having no opinion of him one way or the other.”

Looks like anything could happen here but I guess McAuliffe has the edge with his financial advantage. Does anybody actually think he could win in November? This is a genuine question and not rhetorical.

Last week’s Virginia Governor Democratic Primary Cattle Call

With only 129 days until Virginia’s June 9th Democratic gubernatorial primary, the race is in full swing. The good news for political junkies is that the race has been receiving a good deal of attention. For those looking for a fix, on Tuesday Public Policy Polling* will release head-to-head and favorability numbers for the Democratic Primary. Some people think that Tuesday’s Sharon Bulova result will be important. But it is an all hands on deck for all the campaigns and the only candidate trying to up the ante is Terry McAuliffe in his attempt to smudge the fact he hasn’t helped down ticket Commonwealth Democrats by glossing over with cash.

What’s happened in the last week?

Terry McAuliffe ~ Big week for Terry McAuliffe, but that is both a blessing and a curse. And that will be the story for as long as he hangs around. Terry McAuliffe can raise big money to put his face on TV, but what comes out of his mouth when he is in front of the camera inverts the principle that more media is better.

Terry McAuliffe Money Everyone knows Terry McAuliffe is best known for escalating transactional politics and thus will be able to raise big cash from interests who appreciate pay-to-play. The GOP is already salivating over what looks like a $25,000 of sketchiness. And the $350,000 Park Avenue event is likely to cause some trouble when the next finance reports are released on Tax Day and people see where their Wall Street bailout is going. Optics aren’t pretty:

McAuliffe then stated his case – business savvy to turnaround Virginia’s economic woes – to a crowd with a zero percentage of Virginia residents. Still, the cream of New York’s bundler society present at the dinner could be said to account for McAuliffe’s financial base.

Not a cool base, but he will have lots of money, which brings him to the problem that he’ll spend it putting his face on TV.

Terry McAuliffe on TV

The big money let McAuliffe air a Super Bowl ad, but does it help to brand his face on TV? Tim Craig noted:

And because he was a frequent guest on cable news programs as chairman of the Democratic National Committee, reams of footage could become fodder for a GOP advertising campaign. The Virginia GOP has compiled an extensive opposition research file on McAuliffe, GOP sources said.

Brian Moran ~ Picking p the endorsement of Dwight Jones was a major get, but again for Moran the big news was his big moves on the environment. This week, it was his Green Virginia Plan:

“Virginia can and must become a leader in renewable energy and get our economy moving,” said Moran, a former delegate from Alexandria who is one of three Democrats seeking the party’s nomination for governor.

“The time for leadership on this issue has come, and I’m committed to bold action. This plan will create tens of thousands of jobs in growing industries,” Moran said. “These investments will produce returns for years in the form of new technologies and new jobs.”

Bob Burnley, director of the Department of Environmental Quality under then-Gov. Mark R. Warner, endorsed Moran today and praised his environmental plan.

Creigh Deeds ~ While McAuliffe is putting his money on TV and Moran is again getting lots of earned media for his environmental consolidation, where is Deeds? Not only is he not making good moves, he is making mistakes. Again, he’s going to have to step it up to be more than a spoiler.

*The latest PPC poll in Ohio had no clue when it came to the electorate, so take it with a grain of salt.

From Tim Craig:

The first battle of the 2009 general election campaign for governor will take place next week when voters in Fairfax County go to the polls to elect a new board chairman.

Emboldened by the near victory of a GOP House candidate in heavily Democratic Alexandria earlier this month, Virginia Republicans are hoping Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity (R-Springfield) can defeat his Democratic opponent, Supervisor Sharon S. Bulova (Braddock), in the chairman’s race.

In effort to lay the groundwork for his own campaign this fall, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) has dispatched paid canvassers and volunteers to help Herrity. By the end of the weekend, McDonnell’s staff estimates they will have knocked on more than 15,000 doors. McDonnell plans to campaign with Herrity on Monday.

Not to be outdone, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is turning his Mclean headquarters into a daily phone banking center in support of Bulova. While much of the work will be done by volunteers, McAuliffe plans to man the phones on Saturday.

Dems Brian Moran and Creigh Deeds are also offering their assistance to Bulova. In a way, it may be Moran who has the most to prove. The Alexandria race Craig refers to in the second graf was actually a special election to fill Moran’s own seat in the House of Delegates (he resigned to campaign full time). As Craig explained in an earlier post, the Dems’ 16-vote narrow escape was a real embarrassment given that the district had voted 75% for Obama.

The Fairfax chairman post, meanwhile, was held by Gerry Connolly, who of course just entered the U.S. House of Representatives. Connolly has started asserting himself early as a member of Congress, whipping freshmen to support Henry Waxman’s ouster of John Dingell as chair of the Energy & Commerce committee, so this race probably means a good deal to him as well.

If the Dem wins, I expect we’ll see all kinds of competing claims over who deserves credit. Of course, the GOP will just say that the Dems should have won, and they’d be right – Fairfax went 60-39 for Obama. On the other hand, a loss or even a close call will lead to predictable recriminations and give Virginia Republicans a dose of momentum they certainly don’t deserve. Regardless of who wins our gubernatorial primary, that’s something the Dems can’t afford.

WaPo:

Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will become chairman of the Democratic National Committee later this month, serving as the top political messenger for Barack Obama’s administration even while he finishes his final year in the governor’s mansion, several sources said.

Kaine, who emerged as one of Obama’s vice presidential finalists this summer, will operate from Richmond in a part-time capacity until January 2010, when he will become the full-time DNC chairman. Kaine is constitutionally barred from running for reelection.

Brownsox points out that the current governor of Virginia is going to become chairman of the DNC, while a former DNC chair is trying to become governor of Virginia (Terry McAuliffe, of course).

WaPo:

Virginia is a state with no limits on how much an individual, corporation or union can donate to a candidate running for state office, and some say McAuliffe could wage an $80 million campaign — triple what Kaine spent four years ago — if he is the Democratic nominee. …

A friend of the Clintons, McAuliffe raised more than $200 million for Bill Clinton in the 1990s. As chairman of the Democratic National Committee from 2001 to 2005, he oversaw $500 million in party fundraising. McAuliffe chaired Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, which raised about $220 million. …

Advisers to Moran and Deeds said they had been expecting that it would cost about $3 million to win the June 9 primary, but McAuliffe could spend triple that amount, launching a wave of television advertisements early in the spring that could drown out his opponents’ messages.

The rules are the rules, and T-Mac has prodigious fundraising skills – I don’t hold any of that against him. But I’m no great fan of his politically, and I’m hoping we’ll still see a competitive primary. Even though there won’t be a GOP contest, I think the primary date (June 9) gives us plenty of time to turn around and run a strong general election campaign no matter who our nominee is.

The WaPo piece does point out that Jim Webb beat Harris Miller in 2006 despite getting outspent 4-1, so anything is possible – but that was a flukey, extremely low turnout race. I suspect attention will be much greater this time. And I’ll be very interested to see what the first polls show.

Rasmussen (12/4, likely voters)

Creigh Deeds (D): 39

Robert McDonnell (R): 39

Some other candidate: 4

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Brian Moran (D): 41

Robert McDonnell (R): 37

Some other candidate: 5

Terry McAuliffe (D): 36

Robert McDonnell (R): 41

Some other candidate: 5

Rasmussen has polled the 2009 Virginia governor’s race, and every configuration points to a close contest. Attorney General Robert McDonnell seems to be locked in as the Republican candidate, but the Democratic field is very much up in the air, with three credible candidates in the mix: Rep. Creigh Deeds (who narrowly lost to McDonnell in the 2005 AG’s race), Rep. Brian Moran, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe. In the three head-to-heads, Moran fares the best, beating McDonnell by 4, while the nationally-known McAuliffe fares the worst, losing by 5. There is no poll included of the Democratic primary.

Although Deeds ran for statewide office four years ago, this may be primarily a case of name recognition; Moran is from Alexandria, so voters throughout the DC media market are likely to be familiar with him, while Deeds is from rural Bath County in southwestern Virginia. This creates an interesting strategic question: nominate Deeds and try to put into play another whole region of the state that otherwise wouldn’t be (even if it’s one that’s vote-poor and shrinking), or nominate Moran and try to maximize Dem performance in northern Virginia, which is by far the biggest concentration of Democratic strength (but still can’t, by itself, win a statewide election). As for McAuliffe, who, judging by his TV appearances this summer appears to be attempting to represent Margaritaville, name recognition may not be the problem so much as a perception of carpetbagging and/or sleazy insiderness.

CNN:

Hillary Clinton’s former campaign chairman filed papers Monday forming an exploratory committee to run for Virginia governor.

Terry McAuliffe was widely expected to make his decision after Election Day. The former Democratic National Committee chairman will now do a 60 day listening tour of the state.

Woof. Should he run, McAuliffe will square off against state Sen. Creigh Deeds and state Delegate Brian Moran.

Public Policy Polling has new numbers for the Senate race this year, and the Governor’s race next year.  

In the Senate race, PPP finds what just about every other poll has found

Fmr. Gov. Mark Warner (D) 59%

Fmr. Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) 28%

The governor’s race is a bit more interesting.  PPP finds that the presumptive Republican nominee has a small lead against the two Democrats vying to win the Democratic nomination

Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 32%

State Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) 27%

Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R) 33%

State Del. Brian Moran 27%

While we are down early here, I would like our chances with either nominee.  Deeds lost the 2005 Attorney General’s race to McDonnell by 323 votes.  Moran is the brother of U.S. Rep. Jim Moran.  

While Moran is seen as the early favorite in the Democratic primary, the race could be close.  

Finally, the poll gives Obama a 47-45 lead over McCain in the Commonwealth.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

(Please forgive that groan-inducing pun in the subject line.  I just couldn’t help it).

I know this site is all about down-ballot races, but I noticed that the topic of the Veepstakes became rather popular as it spun off from the thread on coattails.  So, I’d like to open up the floor to discuss the matter . . . from the specific vantage point of how it affects the dynamics of the down-ballot races.  I’ll start with the example of one of my favorite blue-trending states, Virginia:

The names of the Virginia Triumvirate (Warner, Kaine, and Webb) have all been tossed around as VP candidates here in the blogosphere.  But, there are problems with picking any one of them.  Most obviously, Mark Warner is running for senate this year, and taking him out of the running for that will leave us with no strong candidate.  And if we don’t take that Virginia senate seat, there is no way we can get anywhere near the magic number 60.

Moving on to Tim Kaine, the first disadvantage of picking him is the fact that the Lt. Gov. of Virginia is a Republican– and not a moderate one, either.  In addition to that, Kaine is not exactly a compelling presence on the stump.  In Drew Westen’s recent book The Political Brain, Westen uses Kaine’s 2006 rebuttal to the State Of The Union as an example of what Democrats have been doing wrong in terms of presentation.  Apparently, Kaine presented himself in a way that seemed de-fanged, reminiscent of “Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood.”  I had to agree with that when I saw Kaine’s introduction to Obama at the state Jefferson-Jackson Dinner a few weeks back.  He just doesn’t come off with any oomph, if you know what I mean, and we need an attack-dog on the ticket.  Furthermore, Kaine rode into the governorship on Mark Warner’s coattails.  I highly doubt that his own coattails are as long, or that his pull statewide is that strong.

Finally, getting to the man who was “Born Fighting,” Jim Webb.  He can definitely sucker-punch the Republicans into oblivion, and appeal to voters whose top concern is national security.  And, as a writer by trade, he gives great speeches that get people fired up.  So where’s the downside?  Well . . . my lingering concern is that, while Webb would be replaced by a Democrat temporarily, no Democrat in Virginia is strong enough to hold that seat in a special election.  And, behind the scenes, the loathsome, rapacious miscreant known as George Felix Allen has been plotting his comeback. Replace Webb with a weaker candidate and we just might see Mr. Macaca back in his old senate seat.  And, if that isn’t a chilling enough image . . . remember that, before his defeat, Allen had every intention of running for president.  If he gets back into the senate, he will use it as a springboard to a national run, be it in 2012 or 2016.

To sum up the above paragraphs: Virginia is currently in a delicate stage of its development toward blueness.  Its political ecosystem must be left intact, and it will trend our way naturally.

I yield the floor!