Tag: John Murtha

• AZ-Sen: Fox News, of course, has become legendary for its little Chyron errors that always seem to work out to the Republicans’ advantage (slapping a “D” next to Republican Congressmen involved in sex scandals, for instance). What then, to make of their latest one? J.D. Hayworth was recently identified on-screen as “former Arizona congresswoman.”

• CO-Sen: Democracy for America (Howard Dean’s group) is getting involved in the Colorado primary, lending its support to appointed Sen. Michael Bennet. Probably his full-throated support for the public option is helping raise his profile in the netroots. It’s hard to pin down where the ideological fault lines in this primary are, though; his opponent Andrew Romanoff has gotten the big labor endorsements (although both Bennet and Romanoff sound leery about EFCA), and they spent their first debate last week mostly agreeing with and offering kind words about each other.

• FL-Sen:  Sorry, Charlie… Rasmussen takes another look at the GOP Senate primary and finds Marco Rubio putting more distance between himself and Charlie Crist. Rubio is leading Crist 54-36, which is an even bigger gap that last months’ 49-37 edge.

• IN-Sen: Ooops, this could get awkward. Rep. Baron Hill, who was out of the country all last week, got back and decided that he’s at least somewhat interested in (or at least “open to the idea of”) the Senate seat left behind by Evan Bayh too. Rep. Brad Ellsworth already is being treated as heir apparent (to the extent that a replacement for his seat in the 8th is lined up, too), but the state party committee will get the final word on who fills Bayh’s slot.

• NC-Sen: As a bonus addition to their NC-Sen poll from last week, PPP took a look at both sides’ primaries too. On the Democratic side, undecideds rule the day; SoS Elaine Marshall does have the lead, beating former state Sen. Cal Cunningham 29-12 (with 5 for Kenneth Lewis and 2 for Marcus Williams). The only subgroup where Cunningham has the edge so far is voters under 30. On the Republican side, further signs of voters’ general indifference about Richard Burr: he’s polling at only 55% against two unknowns, Brad Jones at 10 and Eddie Burks at 3.  

• NV-Sen (pdf): The first poll of the Nevada Senate race following the news that the Tea Party has sprung into existence and will be running Some Dude is an internal from a GOP pollster, POS. He finds that the top Republicans still beat Harry Reid, but by a much narrower margin than the last few rounds of polling have seen: Sue Lowden leads Reid 42-37 (with 9 for Jon Ashjian), while Danny Tarkanian leads 40-39 (with 11 for Ashjian). Reid beats Sharron Angle 37-32 (with 16 for Ashjian) and Mark Amodei 40-25 (with 19 for Ashjian). Lowden has the edge in the GOP primary, at 35, to 28 for Tarkanian, 8 for Angle, 5 for someone named Chad Christensen, 1 for Amodei, and 0 for the oft-hyped rich guy John Chachas. (Amodei, a termed-out state Senator from Reno, seems to have gotten the message from all this, and dropped out of the race today.

• NY-Sen-B: The NY Daily News observes what I had sensed was happening: the likely challenge from Harold Ford Jr. has seemed to mostly benefit Kirsten Gillibrand, as it raised her profile, and finally kicked her into higher gear, as she’s sought out the spotlight a little more on issues like the public option and DADT. The newest Siena poll (pdf) finds Gillibrand in fine shape so long as George Pataki doesn’t surprise everyone by getting into the race. She trails Pataki 47-41, while beating Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman 51-24 and wealthy publisher Mort Zuckerman 49-29. She also leads Ford and Jonathan Tasini in the Democratic primary, 42-16-4. If Ford somehow survives the primary, he trails Pataki 48-34, while also beating Blakeman (41-23) and Zuckerman (40-26).

• CA-Gov: A nameless GOP pollster, on behalf of a nameless corporate client, shared an internal poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary with Taegan Goddard. While the lack of transparency is sketchy, the numbers are quite credible: Meg Whitman leads Steve Poizner 55-16.

• MO-Gov: This may be a little premature, but Republican Lt. Governor Peter Kinder is already publicly saying that he’s running for Governor in 2012, presumably against incumbent Dem Jay Nixon. An early start can only help, though; in 2008, Nixon benefited from having his nomination locked down way in advance, while the Republicans fought it out in a nasty primary.

• NM-Gov: NMSU is out with the first poll of the wide-open Republican gubernatorial primary field (although apparently not the general election). Thanks to the benefits of name rec, attorney Pete Domenici Jr. leads the field at 29, ahead of Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez at 12, former state party chair Allen Weh at 7, Doug Turner at 7, and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones at 3. The New Mexico Independent breathlessly reports that this was before the bombshell revelations came out that Domenici used (gasp!) marijuana and cocaine while in college in the (swoon!) 1980s… as if that’s going to change a single vote.

• NV-Gov (pdf): That GOP internal from Glen Bolger also has gubernatorial numbers. Most interestingly, it sees Jim Gibbons (the damaged GOP incumbent) gaining some ground on ex-AG Brian Sandoval; Gibbons trails only 38-32, with North Las Vegas mayor Michael Montandon coming in at 9 (Sandoval’s decline may come at the benefit of Montandon as his profile increases, splitting the non-Gibbons vote). Reid the Younger (Rory, that is) beats Gibbons in the general, 47-36, while tying Montandon 40-40 but losing badly to Sandoval, 50-34. (Also worth noting: the poll also asks some state-level policy questions, and found voters preferring raising taxes to cutting services, 47-38. Certainly more grist for the mill, especially after the passages of Measures 66 and 67 in Oregon.)

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is still taking his time on announcing anything regarding his expected gubernatorial run. While rumormongers seem to think at this point that the announcement is coming in mid to late April (after the fighting over the state budget is completed), the NYT points to a finite deadline: May 25, when the party convention begins (unless for some reason he wants to get on the ballot by collecting signatures and petitioning instead). The same Siena poll (pdf) that we talked about earlier also, as always, covers the gubernatorial race, and there aren’t any surprises there (except perhaps that David Paterson is slipping a bit against GOP candidate Rick Lazio, in the unlikely event he survives his primary). In the primary, Cuomo moves up to 64-22 lead over Paterson (they stopped asking about Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy, whose support seemed to come only out of Cuomo’s column and had pushed Cuomo down to 57 last month). Cuomo beats Lazio 63-26, while Lazio beats Paterson 46-39. (Lazio and Paterson were tied at 42 last month.)

• OR-Gov: Rasmussen issued its first poll of the Oregon governor’s race, and find Democrats leading in every permutation. As always, it wouldn’t be Rasmussen without something weird in there, and what’s weird here is that the closest race is between Democratic ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber and long-ago ex-state Sen. John Lim, where Kitzhaber leads only 40-38. (Lim has a 31/28 approval, which I suppose is low name rec by Rasmussen’s strange standards, but freakishly high when considering that the 74-year-old Lim’s last big moment on the stage was losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden by 61-34, and that he’s probably best known for misspelling his own name on his bumper stickers from his 1990 gubernatorial run, where he lost the primary). Kitzhaber leads Chris Dudley 42-36, Allen Alley 42-34, and Bill Sizemore 48-35, while Bill Bradbury leads Lim 38-35, Dudley 39-36, Alley 41-35, and Sizemore 48-23.

• VT-Gov: That Research 2000 poll (on behalf of local TV affiliate WCAX) that came out late last week had some additional matchups that we didn’t report on, focusing on the ever-present threat of a left-wing spoiler campaign from Anthony Pollina (although last I’d heard, Pollina was sounding more interested in trying for the Democratic nod rather than running 3rd party). Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie wins each permutation, including against SoS Deb Markowitz (who led Dubie in a 2-way race), where he’s up 37-35 with 11 for Pollina. Dubie beats Doug Racine 38-32-12, Peter Shumlin 39-31-12, Matt Dunne 38-31-12, and Susan Barlett 44-26-13.

• WI-Gov: The first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Wisconsin gubernatorial race is ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who’s being treated as the underdog in the GOP primary against Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker. Neumann has deep pockets, but this may be an indication that he’s committed to fighting out the gubernatorial battle to the end instead of moving over to the Senate race, where Russ Feingold currently only has minor opposition.

• MI-14, MI-15: Two octogenarian liberal stalwarts, and the two longest-serving members of the House, both confirmed that they’ll be running for another term: John Dingell (looking for term number 28) and John Conyers (term 23).

• PA-06: Looks like that internal poll released by Rep. Jim Gerlach that had him leading by an ungodly amount had the desired effect. Pharmaceutical exec Steven Welch packed his bags and got out of the race, leaving Gerlach with only token opposition. With a fierce primary underway on the Dem side, it’s now quite the reversal of fortune in this district from where we were mid-last year, when the Dems were united behind Doug Pike and a GOP food fight was underway.

• PA-12: Chris Cillizza is reporting that Joyce Murtha, widow of Rep. Jack Murtha, is going to announce that she won’t run in the May 18 special election to replace her husband. This is big news, as the frontrunners, ex-LG Mark Singel and ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, said they’d defer to Murtha. (One more Dem is getting into the field today, Mark Critz, who was Murtha’s district director. Singel and Hafer are the universally-regarded heavyweights, though.) Cillizza also hints that Republicans  “downplay their chances” in this special election, despite the district’s R+1 lean (the real problem for them is their lack of a bench in this traditionally very Democratic area).

• VA-09: Republican state House majority leader Morgan Griffith seems to be moving ahead with a challenge to long-time Rep. Rick Boucher in the 9th, an Appalachian district that’s sliding away from the Democrats. While the district’s trend has to hearten Griffith, he has two problems: Boucher’s huge cash stash, and the fact that Griffith doesn’t live in the district, although very near the border – but while he’s known in the Roanoke market portion of the district, he’ll need to start from square one in coal country in the deep southwest.

• WA-03: Here’s a surprising departure from the Democratic field in the 3rd: state Rep. Deb Wallace, who jumped promptly into the field after Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement and attracted good notices for the few days she had the Dem field to herself. She isn’t endorsing anybody, but said that the district needed a “true moderate Democrat” (which would seem to point toward ex-state Rep. Denny Heck rather than the more liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore). Heck’s personal wealth probably drove Wallace out of the race, especially since she’d be splitting the “true moderate” votes with Heck while Pridemore ran unimpeded on the liberal side (well, except for flaky activist Cheryl Crist).

• FL-St. House: In the face of a growing ethics investigation that could potentially start moving in a criminal direction, Republican former state House speaker Ray Sansom resigned from his House seat today. There’s one interesting name among the many persons who’d been subpoenaed to testify before the House Select Committee on Standards of Official Conduct: another former state House speaker (and now Senate candidate) Marco Rubio. (Rubio isn’t accused of wrongdoing, and now it sounds like the hearings have been rendered moot anyway.)

• Filings: Campaign Diaries gives a rundown of what happened with the Ohio and Indiana filings, which closed last week. Dems are looking at five competitive retentions in Ohio (including OH-13, where wealthy auto dealer Tom Ganley completed his switch for the Senate race, and OH-18, where state Sen. Bob Gibbs deciced to pull the trigger. Potential problems lurk for the GOP in OH-15, where David Ryon filed as the Constitution Party candidate (meaning Steve Stivers might get screwed from the right a second time), and in OH-16, where NRCC fave Jim Renacci faces a competitive primary against more conservative (and presumably less electable) Matt Miller, who almost won the open seat GOP primary in 2008. The GOP’s big disappointment is probably OH-06, where their best bet seems to be former Belmont Co. Sheriff Richard Stobbs (who lost by a wide margin in 2008). There’s less drama in Indiana (except for the unresolved IN-Sen and IN-08 situations), although the open seat in dark-red IN-04 attracted a host of Republicans (most notably SoS Todd Rokita, but also two state Senators).

• NC-Sen: Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is going with an interesting focus for his campaign: filibuster reform. He’s pledging to end the filibuster “in its current form.” Certainly an idea worth exploring at the policy level, but is it a winner at the campaign-soundbite level (when most people don’t even seem to know of the filibuster and cloture process, if polls are to be believed)? Fellow Dem candidate Elaine Marshall also broached the topic in her recent diary at Daily Kos.

• OH-Sen: Two different new Democrats entered the primary election hunt in Ohio, Traci “TJ” Johnson and Charleena Renee Bradley. Bradley appears to have come out literally nowhere, but Johnson is a former state Rep. candidate and, more notably, she worked for the AG’s office when current Lt. Governor Lee Fisher held that position. That’s led to some suspicions of shenangians on the part of the Fisher campaign (who might benefit from another female candidate cutting a bit into Jennifer Brunner’s primary vote share), but Fisher’s camp says that they weren’t involved in Johnson’s decision and that Fisher hasn’t spoken to Johnson in over a year.

• WA-Sen: SurveyUSA has some surprisingly low approval numbers for Patty Murray, as she faces a re-election that could get tough if someone top-tier shows up to challenge her. She’s at 43/50 (which is lower than colleague Maria Cantwell, at 46/45, probably the first time that’s ever happened). What’s strange here is that, although SurveyUSA actually included some young people in this poll, Murray fares worst among the 18-34 set and best among seniors, which is completely counterintuitive (although it kept showing up in their WA-Gov and WA-08 polls last year too). Serious question: has anyone ever studied whether young people who are cellphone-only are disproportionately Democratic and those who actually answer their landlines are more Republican?

• WI-Sen: Rasmussen looks at the Wisconsin Senate race again, and like last time, finds Russ Feingold trailing Tommy Thompson, on the off chance that Thompson decides to say no thanks to all that sweet, sweet hedge fund money. Feingold trails Thompson 48-43, while leading minor Republican opponents Dave Westlake (47-37) and Terrence Wall (47-39). Feingold’s approval is 50/48.

• AR-Gov: Here’s one Arkansas Democrat we don’t have to worry about. Incumbent Gov. Mike Beebe has sported inhuman approval levels and hasn’t even drawn a Republican opponent yet. And now comes news that he raised more than $1 million toward his re-election in the month of January alone.

• FL-Gov, FL-Sen: There’s more pile-on on the issue of Alex Sink’s yawn-inducing and seemingly message-free gubernatorial campaign… and some of that is spilling over into Kendrick Meek’s Senate campaign, which doesn’t seem to be getting anyone fired up either.

• MI-Gov: Another Democrat seems to be moving closer toward a run for Governor: Genesee County treasurer Dan Kildee is opening up an exploratory committee. (Kildee may be getting some urging from a celebrity friend: Michael Moore.) Meanwhile, on the Republican side, long-shot rich guy Rick Snyder is actually letting his fans on his website choose which ad to air next; both ads focus on Snyder’s “nerd” credentials. Unfortunately, it sounds like Ted Nugent, who field strips nerds and eats their entrails for breakfast, is turning down requests that he run for governor (on the GOP side, natch). The Motor City Madman still contends that he’d make a good governor, though, in that he’d “bring in my machete and hack away at the waste and the cronyism.”

• MN-Gov: One more Republican fell by the wayside in the Minnesota gubernatorial race, in the wake of a weak straw poll showing: state Sen. David Hann, who’ll run for another Senate term instead. In an indication that state House minority leader Marty Seifert is feeling confident about winning the GOP nomination, he’s already moved on to picking a running mate: Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah.

• NE-Gov: Nebraska, like Kansas, has been another state where the Dems have had a bad time trying to find a gubernatorial candidate. The search finally seems to be focusing on agribusiness executive Mark Lakers, who insiders say is very interested. (Ben Nelson and Bob Kerrey both emerged from the private sector to defeat incumbent GOP governors, for whatever that’s worth.)

• RI-Gov: Republicans have another option in their gubernatorial primary in Rhode Island: accountant Victor Moffitt. Moffitt is a former state Rep. but may be better know for being a frequent letter-to-the-editor writer. He’ll face John Robitaille, communications director to current Republican Gov. Don Carcieri, in the primary.

• SC-Gov: Attorney Mullins McLeod is dropping out of the race to be the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate, and throwing his support behind state Sen. Vincent Sheheen. There’s no word whether McLeod, as rumored, is planning to move over to the Senate race against Jim DeMint, currently devoid of a Democratic challenger.

• AZ-03: Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon is definitely gauging possibilities for a run for the House, as he’s been polling the district. Interestingly, based on the poll questions, Gordon is considering a run as an independent as well as a Democrat. Gordon, although there’s a “D” next to his name, is quite the centrist and even endorsed John McCain in 2008, which could make a Democratic primary against deep-pocketed Jon Hulburd difficult. The poll also asks whether stories about Gordon’s payments to his girlfriend (for fundraising for his campaigns) would be a campaign liability.

• FL-05: GOP Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite has scheduled a “major announcement” tonight at a local Republican function, prompting speculation from all corners that a retirement, or perhaps even resignation, decision has been made. (J)

• FL-25: You may remember Annette Taddeo, the Democratic businesswoman who acquitted herself well while running in FL-18 in 2008. Some insiders (starting with Steny Hoyer, apparently) are encouraging her to take a look at running in the open seat race in the 25th this year. Taddeo says that if Joe Garcia (the 2008 candidate in the 25th, who’s reported to be moving toward a run) gets in, she’ll support him, but wouldn’t rule out a run in his absence.

• ID-01: One more Republican got into the field in the 1st: Michael Chadwick, who doesn’t seem to have run for office before but used to be an aide to Orrin Hatch. There’s still no word from ex-Rep. Bill Sali, though, as to whether he’ll join the fun.

• KS-03: With top Dem prospect and Kansas City, Kansas mayor Joe Reardon having ruled out a run in the open seat race for the 3rd, Dems are starting to look to state Sen. Kelly Kultala (who represents part of KCK) as the next best option (no word if she’s interested, though). One other name that’s getting attention now, though, is retiring Rep. Dennis Moore’s wife, Stephene, who’s “mulling it over.”

• NJ-07: Republican freshman Rep. Leonard Lance may have a rougher time of it in the GOP primary than the general. Lance will be facing businessman David Larsen, who appears to be challenging Lance from the right (upset over Lance’s cap and trade vote) and may be bringing up to $300K of his own money with him. Appraiser Bruce Baker is also in the GOP primary, flying the teabagger flag, although he may not have the money to make an impression.

• PA-04: Former US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan seems to be having trouble making the transition from the legal world to the somewhat thicker-skinned electoral politics world. Her response when local talk radio host Marty Griffin hosted Cyril Wecht (the Allegheny Co. Coroner who’s had a longstanding legal battle with Buchanan) was to call in to Griffin’s show and threaten on air to sue him for defamation.

• PA-12: Lots more movement in the 12th. One more heavyweight, former Lt. Governor Mark Singel, isn’t deterred by fears that the 12th will be dismantled in a few years: he told the Johnstown paper today that he’ll be running. However, he (like Barbara Hafer) couched that by saying that he wouldn’t run if John Murtha’s widow, Joyce, decided she wanted the job. Cambria Co. Controller Ed Cernik Jr. is publicly stating his interest too, and Westmoreland Co. Commissioner Tom Ceraso is circulating petitions. Meanwhile, there seem to be more GOPers passing on the race than expressing any interest; the only new name to surface is businessman Mark Pasquerilla, who can self-fund; the few elected Republicans whose names were floated, state Reps. Jeff Pyle and Dave Reed, and state Sen. Kim Ward, aren’t running.

• CT-AG: Here’s an about-face from Susan Bysiewicz, who had previously said she would just plow ahead with her AG run despite uncertainty as to whether she legally qualified for the job. Apparently, there’s been enough behind-the-scenes doubt on that front that is was putting into jeopardy her chances at the state nominating convention, so now she’s suing in order to get a declaratory judgment on the question. There’s no indication on what, if anything, she’d run for if it turns out she isn’t qualified to be AG (remember she bailed out of the governor’s race despite being the frontrunner, and with a May 25 filing deadline, potentially she could get back in, although she may have badly hurt her prospects with this whole business).

• AZ-Sen: John McCain’s various Republican establishment friends keep showing up in droves to give him a boost in his primary fight against J.D. Hayworth. Today, it was the turn for former Tennessee senator and brief presidential primary rival Fred Thompson, who awoke from his slumbers long enough to give McCain the thumbs-up.

• KS-Sen: Wow, things are actually happening in Kansas. Not that it seems likely that Democrats are going to be in a position to make either the governor’s or senate races there competitive, but at least they’re filling the holes with credible candidates. In the wake of state Sen. Tom Holland getting into the gubernatorial race for the Dems, now Kansas City-based state Sen. David Haley is making noises about running for Senate. He’ll make a final decision within the month. Former newspaper publisher Charles Schollenberger is already a candidate, but Haley sounds like an upgrade.

• ND-Sen: Kristin Hedger, a 29-year-old businesswoman in North Dakota who lost the most recent Secretary of State race, is floating her name for the Democratic nod in the Senate race. She says she’ll defer to former AG Heidi Heitkamp if she gets in, but is interested in the race if not. State Sen. Tracy Potter is already in the race for the Dems. (And yes, it sounds like she’s aware about needing to be 30 to be a Senator; she’ll be 30 by swearing-in day.)

• NV-Sen (pdf): The legacy media keeps treating the GOP primary in Nevada like a two-way fight between Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, but I’m going to keep maintaining that former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is the real one to watch here (seeing as how Lowden gets tarred with the “RINO” label and is especially loathed by the Paulist set). A straw poll conducted during the Clark County Republican Party Central Committee meeting several weeks ago supports that idea, as Angle finished first, with 49 votes out of a total of 202. Tarkanian and Lowden were still, of course, right in the thick of things, at 48 and 46 respectively. In a bit of a surprise, Some Dude named Bill Parson was a solid 4th with 24 votes. (Parson seems to be working the hardcore teabagger angle. And check out the flattop – shades of Bob Conley all around.) Another potential wrinkle for the GOP: Sen. Jim DeMint, self-appointed kingmaker on the extreme right, while speaking at CPAC, wouldn’t rule out supporting third-party Tea Party candidates where the GOP fails to nominate “strong” candidates – and he explicitly mentioned one state: Nevada. Recall that the Tea Party just sprang into existence as an official 3rd party in Nevada, and already have a candidate lined up (Jon Ashjian).

• NY-Sen-B: I’m still chuckling over Mort Zuckerman’s trial balloons regarding the New York Senate race… but then, I was also chuckling about Harold Ford Jr. at first too. The super-wealthy publisher Zuckerman has gotten some encouragement from state party chair Ed Cox to look into running. Still, Cox is also encouraging other entrants (like Orange County Executive Edward Diana) as well, even while a number of county-level party chieftains have started lining up behind port commissioner Bruce Blakeman.

• OH-Sen: The DSCC is starting to play offense against ex-Rep. Rob Portman, hitting the former Bush budget director, ardent free trader, and all-around consummate insider with a playful new website: “Mr. Portman’s Neighborhood,” conveniently located at the corner of K Street and Wall Street. (Which, seeing as how we spent an inordinate amount of time here thinking about redistricting, only served to remind us of this 2006 article from The Onion.)

• UT-Sen: Even though Club for Growth hasn’t settled on which primary opponent to Bob Bennett they want to back, it seems like Dick Armey’s FreedomWorks has made up their minds. They’ll be backing Mike Lee, who despite his conservative legal establishment pedigree (son of former Solicitor General Rex Lee, and former clerk to Samuel Alito) has been reaching out to the tea party platoons.

• HI-Gov: Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann is operating in a kind of legal limbo for now, and his gubernatorial primary rival, Rep. Neil Abercrombie, is crying foul. Hannemann has opened a campaign account (which has $2 million in it) and, as such, is listed as running for governor with the state’s Campaign Spending Commission, and he’s actively campaigning around the state. However, despite the state’s resign-to-run law, he’s staying in his current position as mayor, as he doesn’t have to resign until he actually files to run with the state’s Office of Elections.

• NY-Gov: This is the weirdest endorsement I’ve ever read (although, where Ed Koch and David Paterson are concerned, I wouldn’t expect anything else); in fact it may be more of a diss than an endorsement. At any rate, I’ll just let Koch speak for himself: “I am for him, in effect, out of sympathy for his being in a Kakfa-esque situation.’ You can’t do this to people, use rumors to destroy them…But I’m not really for him.”

• PA-Gov: As he’s been hinting for a few weeks now, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty finally ended his long-shot Democratic gubernatorial bid, plagued by weak fundraising. He’s still looking to move on from his mayoral gig, though, and instead he’s going to run for the state Senate seat being vacated by long-time Dem Robert Mellow. (He’d also apparently considered the Lt. Governor slot, but that option seemed closed after the state party endorsed former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel by a wide margin.) Meanwhile, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato seems to moving closer to something approaching frontrunner status with another big labor endorsement, this time from the United Steelworkers.

• DE-AL: Republicans had apparently been pinning hopes on wealthy businessman Anthony Wedo in order to help them retain Delaware’s at-large seat, vacated by Rep. Mike Castle and soon to be occupied by Democratic ex-LG John Carney. Wedo won’t be running, though, leaving another (and apparently less wealthy, which would explain the NRCC’s seeming indifference to him) businessman, Fred Cullis, as the only GOP face in the race.

• PA-12: Here’s a surprise: state Sen. John Wozniak, a longtime Johnstown ally of Rep. John Murtha and always at the top of the list when successors were discussed, has decided not to run in the special election to replace Murtha. I wonder if that gives some credence to this article from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (not Pittsburgh’s “real” paper, but rather the local mouthpiece for the right-wing Mellon/Scaife crowd), which made some provocative allegations: that both parties were basically prepared to write this depopulated district off, in preparation for its dismantling during the 2012 redistricting process. Rumors are that the GOP wouldn’t launch a top-tier effort and that Murtha’s widow, Joyce, would hold the seat for the three years until its elimination (and, according to the article, “Democratic leaders” say she’s emerged as the leading contender) – so for a key Murtha ally like Wozniak to stand down suggests there’s some truth to this. Notwithstanding this seeming master plan, though, former GOP state treasurer Barbara Hafer and Ryan Bucchanieri remain in the hunt for the Dems.

• CA-LG: I’m surprised that San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom would want to give up being executive of a major city in exchange for a do-nothing job with a fancy title, but maybe he sees that as a better stepping stone to becoming Governor someday (although he should ask John Garamendi how that ever worked out). Bolstered by polling giving him a big edge in the LG race, he’s filing a ballot statement to run and is in the process of reassembling a campaign team.

• Polltopia: Nate Silver weighs in on the great Firedoglake/SurveyUSA debate of ’10 (with what’s hopefully the last word on the matter), saying that he doesn’t see anything “untoward” going on here, although methodological choices seem to add up to some pro-GOP house effects.

• AR-Sen: Cue up that old Jim Hightower saying about how there’s nothing in the middle of the road but squashed armadillos. Blanche Lincoln, already facing strong GOP opposition, is getting hit with salvos from her left flank too. The Sierra Club is running radio ads against her, attacking her opposition to allowing the EPA to regulate carbon emissions.

• HI-Sen: In case there was any doubt, the 86-year-old Daniel Inouye confirmed that he’s running for re-election and a ninth (!) term; he’ll have his campaign’s official kickoff tonight. The GOP says it’s “too early” to discuss whether they’d field a candidate to go against him. Republican Gov. Linda Lingle hasn’t made a truly Shermanesque statement, but has said that she’s concentrating on her last year in office and not running for anything else.

• MD-Sen: There were brief waves of panic yesterday generated by a rumor (originating on a right-wing local blog, who claimed to have an impeccable source) that Barbara Mikulski, 73 years old and slowly recovering from a leg injury last year, was about to retire too. The rumors were quickly rebutted by staffers, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand got another endorsement from one of the many Democrats associated with a potential primary challenge against her: former NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate William Thompson.

• IL-Gov: It’s the final day of counting absentee and provisional ballots in the Illinois governor’s race today, but state Sen. Kirk Dillard (who trailed by 406 votes to state Sen. Bill Brady after Election Day in the GOP primary) says he won’t concede today regardless of the final number. He’ll wait at least until Feb. 23, when counties submit reports to the state Board of Elections.

• MI-Gov: A quick change of heart for former state Treasurer Bob Bowman, who opened up an exploratory committee to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nod last week. He pulled the plug instead, offering a cryptic explanation that he “just couldn’t commit at this time.” Bowman was probably a long-shot for the nomination, although his self-financing capability could make things interesting.

• OR-Gov (pdf): It looks like most of the action in the Oregon governor’s race is in the Democratic primary, and even there, it may not be shaping up to be an edge-of-your-seat affair. Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber released an internal poll (by Fairbank Maslin Maullin & Metz) giving him a convincing lead in the primary over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury. Kitzhaber is at 55, with Bradbury at 21 (and self-funding Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson at 2). Both are extremely well-regarded by the Democratic electorate, with Kitzhaber at 69/16 and Bradbury at 54/13.

• TX-Gov: Too bad newspapers can’t vote, because polls show Kay Bailey Hutchison losing the GOP gubernatorial primary to Rick Perry by a wide margin among actual humans. However, she swept the endorsement derby over the last few days among the state’s major papers: the Dallas Morning News, the Houston Chronicle, and the Austin American-Statesman.

• FL-25: Democrats are leaning hard on Joe Garcia for another run in the 25th, now that it’s an open seat, and it seems to be working. Garcia, the former county Democratic chair and a current Energy Dept. official, came close to defeating Mario Diaz-Balart (who’s scurrying off to the open seat in the safer 21st); he’s been talking to the DCCC in the last few days and rounding up his previous staffers. On the GOP side, state Rep. David Rivera is already in and state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is certainly talking like a candidate, saying he’ll give Rivera “an old-fashioned ass-whooping.”

• IL-11: This isn’t the way to start your general election campaign off on the right foot. GOP nominee Adam Kinzinger, an Air Force vet, had to revise the military credentials section of his bio after a Facebook poster called attention to possible discrepancies in his record. Kinzinger, the NRCC’s favored candidate, left some feathers ruffled on the right en route to his easy primary victory.

• MI-03: A decent-sounding Democrat is stepping forward to run for the open seat left by Republican Vern Ehlers (where Barack Obama nearly won last year, although it’s a historically Republican area with a strong GOP bench). Attorney Patrick Miles is past president of the Grand Rapids bar association, and a Harvard Law classmate of Obama. On the GOP side, state Rep. Justin Amash, who declared his candidacy the day before Ehlers’ retirement announcement, got the endorsement of western Michigan’s biggest power broker: Amway guru and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos.

• MS-04: Rep. Gene Taylor has perhaps the reddest district held by any House Democrat, so it’s surprising that, with the general sense of a Republican-favorable year, no prominent GOPer has tried to surf the red tide against the usually-unassailable Taylor. A local elected official has finally stepped up, though: state Rep. Steven Palazzo.

• PA-06: One other internal poll, clearly intended to scare rich guy Steven Welch from burning any more of his money against Rep. Jim Gerlach in the GOP primary. Gerlach’s poll has Gerlach leading Welch by a head-spinning 71 to 6. Somehow I can’t imagine it’s really that bad, but Welch clearly has an uphill fight ahead of him.

• PA-12: There’s a little more clarity to the developing fields in the 12th, where two prominent potential candidates said no thanks. On the Democratic side, Jack Hanna, the state party’s southwest chair, passed. And this is a bit more of a surprise, on the GOP side: Diane Irey, a Washington County Commissioner who ran a medium-profile campaign against John Murtha in 2006 (but didn’t break 40%), decided not to run either; she’s endorsing Tim Burns, Some Dude already in the race who apparently has self-funding capacity (unlike 2008 candidate Bill Russell, who just has BMW Direct in his corner). Despite the district’s recent turn at the presidential level, this is one district where the disparity between the two parties’ benches may make the difference for the Dems.

• SD-AL: The GOP already has two decent challengers in the field in South Dakota, the state’s SoS, Chris Nelson, and state Rep. Blake Curd, who brings his own money with him. A third possible entrant seems likely now: state Rep. Kristi Noem, the assistant majority leader, says she’ll announce her candidacy soon. State Reps. in South Dakota have tiny constituencies, so name rec may be an issue – but more ominously, there are also rumors that term-limited Gov. Mike Rounds may be considering the race (although he sounded pretty disinterested when asked).

• LA-LG: SoS Jay Dardenne, who recently decided against a promotion to the Senate by challenging David Vitter in the GOP primary, now has another promotion in mind. He’d like to be elected Lt. Governor, now that that job is open (with Mitch Landrieu having departed to become New Orleans mayor). Gov. Bobby Jindal will appoint a temporary successor until the November election, but what Jindal would really like is to get rid of the whole LG position altogether (although he’ll need to get the legislature to cooperate on that idea, which doesn’t seem likely).

• NH-St. Sen.: There’s a special election tonight in the New Hampshire Senate, to fill the seat left behind by Republican Ted Gatsas, elected in November to become mayor of Manchester. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley faces Republican state Rep. David Boutin. The election gives Democrats the chance to push their edge in the Senate to 15-9, as well as just to make an assertive statement in New Hampshire, where they face tough retentions in both U.S. House races this year.

Rep. John Murtha, the longest serving member of Pennsylvania’s House delegation, died today at age 77. He was hospitalized in intensive care after experiencing complications from surgery last week.

We’ll update as more information becomes available.

(UPDATE): In the words of some of his colleagues:

Rep. Dave Obey (D-Wis.), the Chairman of the House Appropriations Committee:

Jack Murtha was the first Vietnam veteran to serve in Congress and he was incredibly effective in his service in the House. He understood the misery of war. Every person who serves in the military has lost an advocate and a good friend today. My wife Joan and I extend our sympathy and prayers to his wife Joyce, and the entire Murtha family.

Rep. Edward J. Markey (D), the dean of the Massachusetts congressional delegation:

I am saddened to learn of the death of Jack Murtha, a man that I have known for the last 34 years.

While Jack was always known as a military hawk, he became a leading voice in the effort to bring an end to the war in Iraq and it is in no small part due to his work in this area that America is now on track to removing all combat troops from that country by this summer.

My thoughts go out to his wife Joyce and the rest of the Murtha family.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-12

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln seems like she’ll take a lifeline from anyone who’ll throw her one these days, and she got a big one today — although it’s not a surprise who’s doing it. The nation’s most famous Arkansan, Bill Clinton, authored a fundraising e-mail on Lincoln’s behalf.

• CA-Sen: The war of words between Chuck DeVore and the NRSC keeps flaring up; DeVore keeps claiming the NRSC won’t meet with him. DeVore’s camp claims they got an offer to meet with the NRSC’s executive director rather than John Cornyn, which he turned down… but that came after e-mailing the NRSC once and then faxing them follow-ups twice. I must admit I share in the incredulity of NRSC spokesbot Brian Walsh, who said “Remarkably, every [other of the 60 GOP candidates who’ve met with the NRSC] knew how to set up a meeting with the exception of Chuck DeVore who apparently believed sending a fax to Senator Cornyn’s official government office was the most direct route. That alone might demonstrate a lack of seriousness, or at least raise questions of competency, by a statewide Senate campaign.” The Hill’s Aaron Blake looks at this brouhaha in the context of GOP outsider campaigns in general, with a subtext wondering if DeVore’s camp is intentionally miscommunicating as a means of burnishing outsider credentials (seeing as how the way to lose your Seal of Good Teabagging is by becoming one of the NRSC’s golden children).

• FL-Sen: Those Rasmussen numbers on the Florida Senate general election finally showed up. Like last time, and contrary to conventional wisdom, they actually show Marco Rubio overperforming Charlie Crist, vis a vis Kendrick Meek. Rubio beats Meek 49-35, while Crist beats Meek 42-36. Seems strange, but Florida pundit Mike Thomas speculates that Crist is losing ground not among conservatives (whom he never really had to begin with) but rather among indies and moderates, simply by virtue of his empty-suit opportunism, which might explain why the blank-slate Rubio is overperforming. Meanwhile, Rubio keeps trucking along on the fundraising front, as the Club for Growth has bundled $100K in contributions for him in the last month.

• CT-Sen: CQ highlights one more way that price is no object for Linda McMahon; she’s paying her campaign manager David Cappiello a $280K salary, which is at least double what the Rob Simmons and Chris Dodd managers make. Who’s the lucky guy? It’s former state Sen. David Cappiello. If that name sounds familiar, he’s the guy who got spanked by 20 points by then-freshman Rep. Chris Murphy in CT-05 last year… which I’d think might be a bit of a red flag if you were a savvy businessperson looking to hire someone based on campaign skills.

• NH-Sen: The fault lines are remarkably clear in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. GOP establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte was busy hitting a $1,000 per individual Washington DC fundraiser sponsored by telecommunications lobbyists yesterday, at around the same time conservative primary challenger Ovide Lamontagne was getting the endorsement of radio talk show host and Coulter-wannabe Laura Ingraham.

• CA-Gov (pdf): The Public Policy Institute of California has a full poll of the California gubernatorial race (they’ve previously polled on approval ratings, but not the horserace). They see a race between Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman that’s a little tighter (43-37 for Brown) than most pollsters have seen (although, of course, better than Rasmussen’s 41-41 tie). Brown makes short work of his other Republican opposition, Tom Campbell (46-34) and Steve Poizner (47-31). Whitman also has an edge in the GOP primary, at 32 with 12 for Campbell (who’s mulled moving over to the Senate race) and 8 for Poizner.

• GA-Gov: Rasmussen has numbers for the Republican gubernatorial primary (sorry, no numbers for the general, which I don’t think has ever been polled). This race looks pretty stable: they find Insurance Comm. John Oxendine with a sizable lead, as usual. He’s at 28, doubling up on SoS Karen Handel at 14. Rep. Nathan Deal is at 13, followed by Jeff Chapman, Eric Johnson, Ray McBerry, and Austin Scott, all at 2. I wonder if this might tarnish Oxendine a little, though: it was just revealed that he took a trip to the 2007 Oscars on the tab of a major campaign contributor who was also asking, at the time, for Oxendine’s intervention in an insurance dispute against Blue Cross/Blue Shield.

• MI-Gov: Democratic Lt. Gov. John Cherry has been lagging his Republican opponents in the polls lately, and a new poll from EPIC-MRA shows why: no one knows who the heck he is, and those who do don’t like him. Cherry is unknown to 39%, which is greater than any of his main Republican opponents. AG Mike Cox, for instance, has an unknown of 16%. (The release doesn’t mention any head-to-head numbers, at least not yet.)

• NE-Gov: The Democrats may actually get a good-sounding recruit in the Nebraska gubernatorial race? That probably doesn’t change Republican incumbent Dave Heineman’s “Safe R” status, but it’s still good news. Mike Boyle (who says he’s “considering” the race) was mayor of Omaha from 1981 until a recall in 1987; he’s currently in his third term as a Douglas County Commissioner. Boyle also ran for governor in 1990, losing the Democratic primary to now-Sen. Ben Nelson.

• OR-Gov: Former NBA player Chris Dudley officially embarked on his question to become the nation’s tallest governor, announcing his candidacy in a speech that didn’t give potential supporters much to judge where on the Republican spectrum he falls, other than the usual boilerplate on jobs and taxes. (He did mention in an interview, on the abortion issue, that he was “comfortable with [abortion laws] where they are now.”) At least he won’t have to deal with state House minority leader Bruce Hanna in the primary, who yesterday turned down conservative entreaties to get into the race.

• SD-Gov: PPP threw in some gubernatorial questions in its SD-AL poll, and it looks like Republicans have a generic edge here that should keep the state house in their hands, despite nobody knowing much of anything about any of the candidates. The good news for Dems is that their candidate, state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepreim, is better known than any of the GOPers (although 57% have no opinion of him). The bad news is that Heidepreim still loses to all four GOPers, even Some Dude Ken Knuppe (although only 32-30). He also loses to Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard 42-29, Senate majority leader Dave Knudson 39-29, and Brookings mayor Scott Munsterman 35-30.

• KS-03: Dems look to be getting closer to having a solid candidate for the open seat race in the 3rd. Kansas City, Kansas mayor Joe Reardon says he’s giving it “serious consideration,” and his mayoral predecessor, Carol Marinovich also said she’s not ruling out a run. Hopefully only one will run, at least giving the Dems smooth sailing into what’s likely to be a difficult general election.

• PA-11: The NRCC has to be pleased with Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta’s recently-announced third whack at vulnerable Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and they just added him to their “Young Guns” program. He still starts on their lowest tier for now, though (“On the Radar”).

• PA-12: Septuagenarian Rep. John Murtha, who was briefly hospitalized this week for gall bladder trouble, is saying via his spokesperson that he has no intent to retire and will run again in 2010. This comes despite leaks of a memo written in October to the DCCC asking for legal advice on how to deal with his reelection funds if he decides to retire. (The request apparently originated with a constituent’s question.)

• Blue Dogs: The Blue Dogs added three new members yesterday: Scott Murphy (who I thought had been a member all along), Betsy Markey (not a surprise, given her tough district, although she’s taken some courageous votes like cap-and-trade), and Kurt Schrader. The decision by Schrader — who’s near the middle of the Dem caucus, in a slightly Dem-leaning district, and usually a good vote although a bit of a budget hawk — may raise a few eyebrows, but Blue Oregon’s Kari Chisholm offers a good defense of him.

• Texas: Lots to talk about as Democrats try to assemble a full slate of candidates to go with top gubernatorial recruit Bill White. Most notably, they have a former AFL-CIO executive VP interested in running for the all-important (in Texas, at least) Lt. Gov. spot: Linda Chavez-Thompson. They have another candidate interested in running for Comptroller (which ex-Rep. Nick Lampson has also scoped out): former Republican comptroller and then independent gubernatorial candidate Carole Strayhorn, who says she wants to run as a Dem this time. Finally, people are wondering whether Kinky Friedman even qualifies to run for Agriculture Commissioner. State statute requires actual agricultural experience, and Friedman is claiming that a ranch he owns with relatives has enough cattle on it for him to qualify.

• Pennsylvania: The Hill points to an interesting academic research paper that examined what’s going on with people who’ve participated in the widespread Republican-to-Democrat party switch that’s remade politics in suburban Pennsylvania in recent years. As one might expect, these are affluent people for the most part (with one-third making more than $80K). Unexpectedly, though, only 53% say they were driven out by “extremism” in the GOP’s positions, and they span the ideological spectrum (although with a plurality calling themselves “moderates”). Many, in fact, (over 40%) were at one point Democrats who had switched to the GOP and were now switching back.

• Votes: Yesterday’s House vote to lift the debt ceiling was another closely orchestrated one, passing 218-214. As might be expected, most of the most vulnerable members voted no… and also a few center-left types running for Senate who don’t want to get tarred with the ‘debt’ brush (Kendrick Meek, Paul Hodes). They were generously given some cover by three of the retiring Blue Dogs — Dennis Moore, John Tanner, and Bart Gordon — who all voted ‘yes,’ since their seats in the lifeboat weren’t needed (same with some of the other Blue Dogs facing lesser challenges this year, like Jim Marshall and John Barrow).

• MA-Sen: Here’s another academic name popping up in connect with Ted Kennedy’s vacant senate seat. The Center for American Progress Action Fund thinks that Deval Patrick should appoint Harvard prof and Boston-based surgeon Atul Gawande to the post. Gawande is best-known these days for his seminal article this summer in the New Yorker about health-care costs, but he also was a healthcare advisor to Bill Clinton in the early 90s. (D)

Also in the Bay State, Rep. Mike Capuano got a potentially helpful endorsement, from fellow Rep. Barney Frank. Frank’s imprimatur may help Capuano prove his liberal bona fides and win over some voters in the Boston suburbs who may not be familiar with him.

• NH-Sen: Despite Kelly Ayotte’s reputed field-clearing abilities, yet another Republican is adding his name to the list of possible candidates in the New Hampshire Senate race. Real estate investor William Binnie is quite literally from the country club wing of the GOP — he’s owner and president of the Wentworth-by-the-Sea Country Club and owner/driver of an auto racing team. Another suggestion he may be running to the left of Ayotte (although her intentionally amorphous political persona gives no clue about her ideology); Binnie is tight with moderate GOP ex-Rep. Andrew Zeliff, and has given money to Democratic candidates in the past.

• TX-Sen: Rumors out of Texas have Kay Bailey Hutchison resigning her seat at year’s end (on Dec. 31 or Jan. 1) in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid against Rick Perry. Under Texas law, this would lead to a short-term appointment, and then a special election on May 8.

• IA-Gov: Incumbent Dem Chet Culver continues to sport rather good favorables, clocking in at 50/37, but his re-elect numbers may give him some pause (28% say “definitely vote for,” 27% say “consider an alternative,” and 21% say “definitely vote for alternative”). Republican ex-Gov. Terry Branstad, who’s been receptive to the idea of a bid for a return to office, is still remembered fondly by Iowans, with favorables of 59/22. Sen. Chuck Grassley is the state’s best-liked figure, though, with 64% favorables and a 45% “definitely vote for.” (H/t Steve Benen.)

• NJ-Gov (pdf): Neighborhood Research is a Republican internal pollster (they worked with primary loser Steve Lonegan), but they were the first pollster to find Jon Corzine moving back within the margin of error. They’re back with a new poll, showing Corzine still within striking distance, trailing Chris Christie 37-33 (although that’s down from their August finding of 37-35) with Chris Daggett at 6. Meanwhile, Chris Daggett has joined a voter suit challenging ballot ordering in New Jersey, which favors the two major-party candidates.

• PA-Gov: Montgomery County Commissioner and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel says he’s moving ahead with plans to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. No formal announcement date is set, but the progressive from the Philly suburbs is starting to staff up, and is bolstered by an internal poll he commissioned through Lake Research, showing him leading the nebulous field at 15%, with Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both at 12, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, and Philly businessman Tom Knox at 5.

• NY-23: With the 23rd now officially vacant, Dem candidate Bill Owens is the first to put up a TV spot. He stresses his military roots and efforts to generated jobs via the redevelopment of the old Plattsburgh AFB.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe vs. Davis III in the 1st. Ex-Rep. David Davis, who defeated current Rep. Phil Roe in the 2006 GOP primary and then lost the 2008 GOP primary to him (in this R+21 district), has been publicly blasting Roe’s record.

• NY-Lt. Gov: On Friday, Sept. 11th, New York’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, heard oral arguments regarding David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor. According to reports, Paterson’s camp seemed to have gotten its most favorable treatment to date. Lawyers on both sides, says the NYT, expect a decision within two weeks, which would mean the end of this week or the beginning of next. One possibility is that the court could rule that Republican leader Dean Skelos simply didn’t have standing to sue, which would leave the Ravitch appointment intact. (D)

• NYC-Mayor: Marist finds that Democratic city Comptroller William Thompson, despite a convincing primary win, still trails Independent/Republican incumbent Mike Bloomberg in the general, 50-39 among RVs and 52-43 among LVs. It’s still some improvement for Thompson, who trailed 48-35 among RVs in July.

• Ads: Conservative PAC the Family Research Council has published its own target list for the 2010 cycle: Michael Bennet and Chris Dodd, plus the Missouri and Ohio open seats, in the Senate, and John Boccieri, Steve Driehaus, Parker Griffith, Mary Jo Kilroy, Ann Kirkpatrick, Betsy Markey, Walt Minnick, John Murtha, Glenn Nye, Tom Perriello, and Dina Titus in the House.

• FL-Sen: Some guys just don’t seem to be getting the message that the NRSC is trying to consolidate support for Charlie Crist and shut down the competitive primary challenge from former state House speaker Marco Rubio. Thing is, these are some major players, starting with Mike Huckabee, whose latest fundraising e-mail from HuckPAC cited Rubio. (Rubio was one of Huckabee’s early backers in the GOP presidential primary.) Also, today Jeb Bush Jr. (son of the former Governor) endorsed Rubio. The elder Bush remains on the sidelines and probably will continue to do so… but this seems like the kind of thing someone in Jr.’s shoes doesn’t do without consulting dad (especially when you share the same name).

• IL-Sen: When you’re facing long odds in a primary and sitting on $845 in funds, the words “FBI wiretap” aren’t likely to make your situation better. A just-released transcript of a conversation with Rod Blagojevich’s brother Robert shows Roland Burris promising to “personally do something” for Blago, although without creating the impression he was “trying to buy an appointment.” In the meantime, although he hasn’t announced re-election plans, Burris persists in acting like a candidate for 2010, taking a swing through a number of downstate cities this week.

• OH-Sen: Rob Portman had a Memorial Day weekend he’d probably like to forget, as he visited to the Dayton-area VA Hospital on Sundary to do a little meet ‘n’ greet. Not only did he get a chilly reception from officials, who told him that campaigning on federal property is illegal, but from the vets as well, who peppered him with questions about Bush administration cuts to the VA budget, while Portman was OMB director.

• MI-Gov: Unfortunately-named Republican Attorney General Mike Cox made it official; he’s running for Michigan Governor. Cox finished third in the one poll so far of the GOP primary, but the winner of the poll was Oakland Co. Executive L. Brooks Patterson (who has since announced he won’t run), and Cox, who’s also based in the Detroit suburbs, is likely to benefit from Patterson’s absence.

• AL-Gov: As expected, Bradley Byrne, the chancellor of Alabama’s Two-Year College System and a former state Senator, announced his candidacy for Governor today. In a very cluttered GOP field, observers give Byrne something of front-runner status.

• MO-07: State Senator Gary Nodler is publicly announcing something tomorrow, most likely that he’s running for the open 7th District seat being vacated by Roy Blunt. It’s already a crowded field, but a March internal poll gave Nodler the edge with 35%, leading state Sen. Jack Goodman and auctioneer Billy Long at 25% each. Nodler has the “my turn” factor working for him, as he lost the GOP primary for this seat the last time it was open, losing to Blunt in 1996.

• PA-10: The GOP seems to be floundering in its efforts to find a candidate to take on sophomore Rep. Chris Carney in this R+8 district in northeastern Pennsylvania. All they have lined up so far is Lackawanna Trail School Director Dan Naylor and chiropractor David Madeira; Dan Meuser, who narrowly lost last year’s GOP primary to Chris Hackett, is “keeping his options open” but unlikely to run.

• PA-11: Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty, in an interview, wouldn’t rule out running in a primary against weary Rep. Paul Kanjorski. (Doherty definitely sounds interested in moving up to something, although more focused on the open Lt. Gov. slot. Former Philadelphia controller Jonathan Saidel may have the inside track on that job, though.) This follows news that Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien is also interested in Kanjorski’s job.

• PA-12: Another possible changing of the guard in Pennsylvania: former State Dept. employee and Navy officer (and Navy Academy placekicker) Ryan Bucchianeri announced he’ll challenge John Murtha in the Dem primary. Somehow I doubt this is the kind of challenge that would prompt the 77-year-old Murtha to shrink in fear and contemplate retirement; more likely, Bucchianeri is positioning himself in case the increasingly cumulative weight of investigations into Murtha’s earmark quid pro quos takes Murtha down.

• WI-03: Rep. Ron Kind hasn’t faced a serious challenge since his first election in 1996 in his Dem-leaning (D+4) rural Wisconsin district, but he may face an honest-to-gosh state Senator in 2010. Dan Kapanke is strongly considering making the race.

• GA-09: State Representative Tom Graves jumped into the field for the GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Nathan Deal (who’s running for Governor). Expect a crowded GOP field in this R+28 district: former state transportation board chair Mike Evans, former state Sen. Bill Stephens, county commissioner Mike Cowan, and activist Jeremy Jones are all already in.

(From the diaries with minor edits – promoted by DavidNYC)

As I’d promised in my diary on New Jersey, Pennsylvania would be the next state I’d tackle. This would  have been done a lot sooner, but those things called work and exams kind of got in the way….

My goal, flat out, was to carve more Democratic districts. I’m all for compactness when it comes to suitcases and mp3’s, but not when I’m gerrymandering states. Again, I kept Democratic Congresscritters in their homes.

Unlike New Jersey though, Pennsylvania is probably maxed-out when it comes to Democrats (save Gerlach and Dent, whose districts are certainly Democratic.) Pennsylvania is also losing one seat (most likely) in 2010, so I drew 18 seats on 2008 population estimates. I didn’t “merge” two districts per se, but more like took the 16th, 17th, and 19th and produced two districts from them.

I had the following goals in mind:

• Dislodge Gerlach (6th) and Dent (15th) by increasing Democratic performance in their districts.

• Give Dahlkemper (3rd), Altmire (4th), Murtha (12th), and Holden (17th) more favorable territory. They represent McCain districts now, I wanted to change those to Obama districts.

• Maintain strength for Sestak (7th), Patrick Murphy (8th), Kanjorski (11th), and Schwartz (13th). They have decently strongly Democratic districts, which I wanted to maintain at their current levels.

• Keep Brady (1st), Fattah (2nd), and Doyle (14th) in strongly Democratic districts, but perhaps not as absurdly strong as before. Obama scored 88%, 90%, and 70% respectively, I felt this could afford to be lowered somewhat. A corollary to this goal is keeping Fattah’s district majority Black. I didn’t bother with Brady’s currently plurality Black district, though it may still be.

Here’s the new map (click for full-size version):

Much more below the flip.

Again, to start, I used this map of Obama’s performance across the state, by municipality. As before, lightest shade is a margin of less than 5%, then 5 to 15, 15 to 25, 25 to 35, and the new uber-dark, which is a margin of 35+.

Going district by district, here’s what we’ve got. As a sidenote, I didn’t bother renumbering districts to make sense (which they don’t right now). I think it’s easier to keep core areas the same when numbering, since I think most of us automatically relate, for example, “PA-14” to Pittsburgh.

Summary statistics are: County, Population, Obama Votes, McCain Votes, Total Votes, Obama%, McCain%.

I’m going to go Northwest to Southeast, as opposed to in order by non-sensical district number. I think that makes the most sense.

Sad to say, this district probably isn’t much more gerrymandered than its current counterpart. It contains the entirety of Erie and Crawford counties in the northwest, and starts a slow march towards State College. I’d hate to leave those Democratic votes behind, and plus they’re a good way to shore up Dahlkemper’s district, which Obama lost by 17 votes. It takes in the Democratic parts of Centre and Clinton counties on the east end, with some arms into Clarion and Venango. I’d like to think I succeeded, since Obama scored 45% in the 3rd’s part of Venango and 50% in Clarion, compared to 35% and 33% in the parts not in the 3rd. All in all, a 54% Obama district – a 6% increase from its current form.

4		689,397	182,724	168,763	356,152	51.31%	47.39%
	Allegheny	389,960	110,152	102,177	214,148	51.44%	47.71%
	Beaver	149,042	36,109	35,781	73,326	49.24%	48.80%
	Lawrence	75,681	17,041	16,670	34,362	49.59%	48.51%
	Mercer	74,714	19,422	14,135	34,316	56.60%	41.19%

Altmire is pretty much in the same boat as Dahlkemper, except with a district that Obama lost 44-55. There’s no need to complicate this by including any parts of Butler County, so this district sticks along the Ohio, Beaver, and Shenango Rivers up from Pittsburgh (but not including) to Sharon, through Allegheny, Beaver, Lawrence, and Mercer counties. It’s a point of pride for me that Obama won each county component. Specifically in Allegheny County, Altmire swaps out a bunch of Republican northern suburbs for friendlier stuff east of the city, notably Monroeville and Penn Hills. Obama scored 44% in the Allegheny portion of the old 4th, compard to 51% here. If Altmire didn’t live in Republican-leaning McCandless, there could have perhaps been more improvement. Anyways, this works out to a 51% Obama district – an improvement of 7%.

18		689,231	136,738	218,177	359,372	38.05%	60.71%
	Allegheny	127,747	30,252	41,789	72,634	41.65%	57.53%
	Beaver	24,444	4,390	7,114	11,706	37.50%	60.77%
	Butler	181,082	32,260	57,074	90,761	35.54%	62.88%
	Greene	13,925	2,072	2,748	4,892	42.35%	56.17%
	Lawrence	16,216	2,670	5,181	7,987	33.43%	64.87%
	Mercer	25,909	4,147	8,239	12,668	32.74%	65.04%
	Washington	82,349	18,019	27,503	46,141	39.05%	59.61%
	Westmoreland	217,559	42,928	68,529	112,583	38.13%	60.87%

This district is what happens when you try to strip all the Republican territory out of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th districts and pack it together. Butler County has no place in a Democratic district, nor does the large chunk of Westmoreland County which is quickly trending away from us. Throw in some the northern Pittsburgh suburbs stripped out of Altmire’s district and the core of Tim Murphy’s old district, and you get this 38% – an 8% drop in Democratic performance.

14		688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%
	Allegheny	688,540	227,685	124,055	355,158	64.11%	34.93%

The 14th doesn’t change much – it keeps the entirety of the city of Pittsburgh and suburbs to the east like Swissvale and Doyle’s home in Forest Hills. Instead of reaching southwest, the new 14th looks south to the southern Pittsburgh suburbs like Upper St. Clair and Bethel Park. Arguably, this district is actually more compact than the current 14th. No worries for Mike F. Doyle though, since Obama still won 55% in the non-Pittsburgh part of the district.  Combine that with the 75% Obama scored in the city, and you get a 64% Democratic district, a drop of 6%.

12		689,579	146,095	143,358	294,030	49.69%	48.76%
	Allegheny	19,931	4,385	3,865	8,347	52.53%	46.30%
	Armstrong	26,485	5,114	6,186	11,454	44.65%	54.01%
	Cambria	131,716	29,955	28,623	59,705	50.17%	47.94%
	Fayette	135,292	24,805	23,726	49,108	50.51%	48.31%
	Greene	25,794	5,757	5,141	11,084	51.94%	46.38%
	Indiana	55,368	12,477	12,254	25,068	49.77%	48.88%
	Somerset	26,108	5,709	6,599	12,656	45.11%	52.14%
	Washington	122,958	28,100	23,199	52,318	53.71%	44.34%
	Westmoreland	145,927	29,793	33,765	64,290	46.34%	52.52%

It’s no secret Obama didn’t do all that hot in Southwest PA, and it’s painfully obvious here. Kerry won the old 12th, which Obama lost by about 1,000 votes. Trying to create an Obama district required some creative districting and ends up being more like connect-the-dots between traditionally Democratic Fayette and Greene counties, Johnstown (Murtha’s residence), Washington, the college town of Indiana, and Lower Burrell in Westmoreland. The old 12th pretty much packed all the Democratic votes in the area, so the increased population requirement really made me stretch. I think again, I have a strong case for this being more compact than the old 12th. Either way, it’s a slight improvement to a district Obama won by 3,000 votes, an improvement of 0.5%.

9		689,087	102,284	191,267	298,149	34.31%	64.15%
	Adams	5,926	1,018	1,671	2,739	37.17%	61.01%
	Armstrong	42,940	6,024	12,356	18,627	32.34%	66.33%
	Bedford	49,650	6,059	16,124	22,508	26.92%	71.64%
	Blair	125,593	19,813	32,708	53,298	37.17%	61.37%
	Cambria	14,271	2,496	3,372	5,965	41.84%	56.53%
	Clarion	28,186	4,045	8,111	12,435	32.53%	65.23%
	Clearfield	33,268	5,672	8,599	14,588	38.88%	58.95%
	Cumberland	19,402	3,428	4,426	7,976	42.98%	55.49%
	Fayette	9,667	1,090	2,054	3,172	34.36%	64.75%
	Franklin	139,459	21,169	41,906	63,641	33.26%	65.85%
	Fulton	14,261	1,576	4,642	6,306	24.99%	73.61%
	Huntingdon	45,552	6,621	11,745	18,730	35.35%	62.71%
	Indiana	32,520	4,588	7,473	12,236	37.50%	61.07%
	Jefferson	45,151	6,447	12,057	18,904	34.10%	63.78%
	Somerset	52,087	7,169	15,087	22,712	31.56%	66.43%
	Venango	31,154	5,069	8,936	14,312	35.42%	62.44%

Moving into the ‘T’ now, this is the first of two extremely Republican districts. Arguably, there are two population centers, one in Altoona in Blair County and the other in Chambersburg in Franklin. From there, it moves northwest, picking up the parts of Somerset, Cambria, Indiana, and Armstrong not packed into Murtha’s 12th, and then the parts of Venango and Clarion not in Dahlkemper’s 3rd. At 34% Obama, this is the most Republican district in Pennsylvania and a 1% drop from the current 9th.

5		689,043	114,992	195,836	315,767	36.42%	62.02%
	Berks	9,899	993	2,312	3,366	29.50%	68.69%
	Centre	46,567	8,837	11,902	21,089	41.90%	56.44%
	Clearfield	9,696	1,511	2,228	3,839	39.36%	58.04%
	Clinton	10,002	1,540	2,434	4,024	38.27%	60.49%
	Cumberland	199,164	43,028	57,531	102,130	42.13%	56.33%
	Dauphin	43,419	8,423	15,149	23,834	35.34%	63.56%
	Juniata	23,163	3,068	6,484	9,819	31.25%	66.04%
	Lebanon	53,875	9,202	16,904	26,528	34.69%	63.72%
	Lycoming	49,426	7,076	15,691	23,131	30.59%	67.84%
	McKean	23,852	2,886	5,596	8,645	33.38%	64.73%
	Mifflin	46,609	5,375	10,929	16,502	32.57%	66.23%
	Montour	3,868	590	1,167	1,771	33.31%	65.89%
	Northumberland	22,909	3,245	6,360	9,734	33.34%	65.34%
	Perry	44,850	6,396	13,058	19,745	32.39%	66.13%
	Potter	18,080	2,300	5,109	7,583	30.33%	67.37%
	Schuylkill	10,533	1,776	3,294	5,139	34.56%	64.10%
	Snyder	23,134	2,499	6,442	9,069	27.56%	71.03%
	Tioga	24,641	3,610	7,527	11,305	31.93%	66.58%
	Union	25,356	2,637	5,719	8,514	30.97%	67.17%

The is the other Republican district taking in a large chunk of the T. More packing of Republicans here, as this district on the east side swaps many tentacles with Chris Carney’s new 10th district. Any pockets of even-remotely Democratic friendliness are pulled out, including Williamsport and Sunbury. What’s left is expansive Republican space, centered in Cumberland County moving north towards the Northern Tier. At 36% Obama, this is a drop of 8%.

10		688,967	134,946	156,456	296,409	45.53%	52.78%
	Berks	8,704	1,724	2,167	3,995	43.15%	54.24%
	Bradford	61,626	10,306	15,057	25,884	39.82%	58.17%
	Columbia	64,663	13,019	14,255	27,838	46.77%	51.21%
	Dauphin	5,728	823	1,231	2,073	39.70%	59.38%
	Lackawanna	44,778	13,784	10,806	24,913	55.33%	43.37%
	Luzerne	11,637	2,044	3,020	5,153	39.67%	58.61%
	Lycoming	67,880	11,305	14,589	26,316	42.96%	55.44%
	Montour	14,368	2,757	3,388	6,216	44.35%	54.50%
	Northumberland	68,307	11,083	12,655	24,201	45.80%	52.29%
	Pike	57,102	11,493	12,519	24,285	47.33%	51.55%
	Schuylkill	108,170	20,758	23,247	44,766	46.37%	51.93%
	Snyder	14,849	2,883	3,458	6,410	44.98%	53.95%
	Sullivan	6,556	1,233	1,841	3,131	39.38%	58.80%
	Susquehanna	41,388	8,381	10,633	19,383	43.24%	54.86%
	Tioga	16,194	2,780	3,799	6,679	41.62%	56.88%
	Union	17,997	4,696	4,140	8,961	52.40%	46.20%
	Wayne	51,139	9,892	12,702	22,932	43.14%	55.39%
	Wyoming	27,881	5,985	6,949	13,273	45.09%	52.35%

You can’t win all of them, and this is the one district that wasn’t to my liking. I really wanted to protect Carney a bit more, but the territory simply wasn’t there to do that and protect the Democratic strength of Kanjorski’s 11th. I chose to hedge a bit and to keep the 11th strongly Democratic. It might be a waste to protect Kanjorski like that, but he’s got to retire eventually and we can definitely get a good Democrat out of Scranton. Thus, this district starts in Wayne and Pike counties, before moving through Susquehanna (Carney lives in Dimock) and northern Lackawanna counties. Lycoming County outside of Williamsport is stripped out as much as possible, and it gains Columbia County and a large chunk of Schuylkill County freed up from Holden’s 17th. Surprisingly, I still managed a gain of 0.5% to 45.5% Obama. Carney should be fine here regardless.

11		689,582	177,101	128,039	309,934	57.14%	41.31%
	Carbon	62,326	13,464	12,957	27,050	49.77%	47.90%
	Lackawanna	164,442	53,736	28,682	83,626	64.26%	34.30%
	Luzerne	300,203	70,448	58,107	130,815	53.85%	44.42%
	Monroe	162,611	39,453	28,293	68,443	57.64%	41.34%

Kanjorski was probably saved in 2008 by Obama’s coattails, and shoring up the 11th was one of my major goals. Surprisingly, this actually becomes more compact, too, it seems. What we get is a district centered on the Lackawanna Valley. 43% of this district is Wilkes-Barre and Luzerne County, and another 23% each for Scranton/Lackawanna County and Monroe County. All in all, a 57% Obama district, up 0.3% from the old 11th. Also a rare victory for compactness.

17		689,314	176,601	148,808	329,673	53.57%	45.14%
	Berks	52,440	11,062	13,461	24,959	44.32%	53.93%
	Cumberland	6,969	1,850	1,782	3,719	49.74%	47.92%
	Dauphin	199,854	59,866	40,264	101,138	59.19%	39.81%
	Lancaster	229,139	60,406	52,477	114,386	52.81%	45.88%
	Lebanon	72,551	14,108	17,410	32,035	44.04%	54.35%
	Schuylkill	28,135	5,938	7,418	13,522	43.91%	54.86%
	York	100,226	23,371	15,996	39,914	58.55%	40.08%

Connect the dots version 2.0 here, as we string together the cities of York, Harrisburg, Lancaster, and Tim Holden’s home in St. Clair in Schuylkill County, all of which are strongly Democratic. They’re counterbalanced by the Republican outlying portions of York, Dauphin, and Lancaster counties, though. However, 59% Obama performances in the 17th’s parts of Dauphin and York and a 53% showing in Lancaster anchor this 54% Obama district on balance, an improvement of 6% from the current 17th.

16		688,715	118,510	197,429	320,910	36.93%	61.52%
	Adams	93,986	16,615	24,678	41,924	39.63%	58.86%
	Berks	9,821	2,245	3,260	5,596	40.12%	58.26%
	Chester	1,059	243	552	806	30.15%	68.49%
	Dauphin	5,275	759	1,576	2,362	32.13%	66.72%
	Lancaster	264,774	39,180	74,091	114,863	34.11%	64.50%
	York	313,800	59,468	93,272	155,359	38.28%	60.04%

This is what remains of the old 16th and 19th districts once the Democratic cities are stripped out. There’s really not much to say about this district based in York and Lancaster, except that it’s the last “Republican” district we have to talk about, it only gets better from here. At 37% Obama, it’s a drop of 6% from the old 19th and 10% from the old 16th – which was intentional, of course.

15		688,754	177,367	136,903	318,961	55.61%	42.92%
	Berks	65,559	15,023	14,970	30,535	49.20%	49.03%
	Lehigh	333,423	87,089	63,382	152,473	57.12%	41.57%
	Northampton	289,772	75,255	58,551	135,953	55.35%	43.07%

Starting with the Lehigh Valley, the 15th continues to have the entirety of Northampton County. Lehigh County did have a bite taken out of it by the old pterodactyl of the 6th, but the Lehigh in its entirety stays here too. Instead of reaching into MontCo with two rods hugging the MontCo-Berks and MontCo-BucksCo line, it goes for Bucks County instead. At 56% Obama, this is a slight improvement. Charlie Dent should be gone as soon as we get a good challenger anyway.

Southeast PA is definitely (in my mind, anyway), the coup de grace of this map. Here’s an inset of that:

Each district is colored by county component: all greens are the 6th or 8th, blues are the 7th or 13th, red is the 1st, and yellow is the 2nd.

First, the boring stuff (i.e. the 1st and 2nd):

1		689,174	266,010	78,010	347,098	76.64%	22.47%
	Delaware	208,267	65,596	42,719	109,675	59.81%	38.95%
	Philadelphia	480,907	200,414	35,291	237,423	84.41%	14.86%

Bob Brady’s district remains anchored in South Philly with an arm into Delaware County. The composition of this arm, however, is significantly different. Brady swaps with Sestak some cities (notably strongly-Democratic Chester city) for some Republican leaning parts of the Main Line. Brady’s old 1st had a 89% Democratic section of DelCo, the new 1st has a 60% Democratic section. This lowers Democratic performance by about 11%, down to 77%. Brady need not be concerned.

2		688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%
	Philadelphia	688,659	303,286	34,983	339,990	89.20%	10.29%

No significant changes for Chaka Fattah. His district still contains most of West Philly. Cheltenham in MontCo is removed, substituted for an arm into Northeast Philly. The changes aren’t all that significant, the district is only down 0.85% in Obama performance.

8		686,233	199,224	162,328	365,625	54.49%	44.40%
	Bucks	619,093	179,031	150,248	332,924	53.78%	45.13%
	Montgomery	27,576	7,460	5,533	13,168	56.65%	42.02%
	Philadelphia	39,564	12,733	6,547	19,533	65.19%	33.52%

Consistent with tradition, Bucks County remains in the 8th in its entirety. The old 8th had an odd-looking protrusion into MontCo (where Obama got 63%), and took a section of Northeast Philly where Obama barely edged McCain with 49%. We flip the roles here, instead taking Wards 41 and 65 of the city, where Obama got 65%. We also take a few municipalities (funnily, Hatfield Twp, Hatfield Boro, and Hatboro Boro) in MontCo, where Obama got 57%. Overall, Obama got 54.5%, up 0.5%.

13		688,902	224,312	140,834	368,302	60.90%	38.24%
	Montgomery	443,652	144,765	100,434	247,223	58.56%	40.62%
	Philadelphia	245,250	79,547	40,400	121,079	65.70%	33.37%

The 13th remains a MontCo-Philly hybrid. It takes in more of MontCo now, consistent with the increased population constraint, reaching all the way to the Berks County Line. Instead of reaching through the city, the new 13th no longer touches the Delaware River, stopping short by grabbing Northeast Philly taken from the 8th. Centered in Abingdon (it’s the largest municipality), the new 13th’s section of MontCo is 59% Obama, up from 57%, and the new 13th’s section of Philly is 66% Obama, up from 60%. Together, this makes for a 61% Obama district, up from 58%.

7		689,283	219,653	154,096	377,651	58.16%	40.80%
	Chester	211,997	66,693	57,071	125,146	53.29%	45.60%
	Delaware	345,246	113,274	72,554	187,835	60.31%	38.63%
	Montgomery	132,040	39,686	24,471	64,670	61.37%	37.84%

The new 7th stays composed of ChesCo, DelCo, and MontCo. Since more of DelCo is given to Brady’s 1st, this district becomes more Chester County heavy, reaching further north and west into the county. It, incidentally, takes Jim Gerlach’s home in West Pikeland Township here. Even so, the new ChesCo portion is 53% Obama, up from 50%. The DelCo section gets a healthy boost from the city of Chester while keeping in Radnor, Haverford, and Upper Darby along the Main Line. The New DelCo section is 60% Obama, up from 56%. The MontCo part remains mostly the same, taking in Norristown, Upper Merion, and Lower and Upper Providence Townships. Combined, this is a 58% Obama district, up 2.5%.

6		688,652	198,024	136,472	338,576	58.49%	40.31%
	Berks	251,731	66,000	44,343	112,060	58.90%	39.57%
	Chester	265,765	70,897	56,798	129,300	54.83%	43.93%
	Montgomery	171,156	61,127	35,331	97,216	62.88%	36.34%

My favorite district. The pterodactyl is back (hence the title, get it?), and it’s leaner and meaner (to Republicans, anyway). The body remains majority Chester, but it swaps out a large swath of eastern ChesCo for townships along the Lancaster County line freed up from the 16th. It still, however, keeps Democratic centers in Downington and Coatesville, and adds West Chester proper, which was gerrymandered into the 16th before. Obama performed roughly the same in the old and new Chester part.

As before, the left wing reaches into Berks County, but before, Reading was cracked three ways between the 6th, 16th, and 17th. Now, Reading and its 81% Obama goodness are kept whole in this district, raising Obama’s performance in Berks from 54% to 59%. The right arm is still my favorite. Originally, Republicans conceived of this as a way to crack MontCo into two Republican (PA-06, PA-07) and one swing district (PA-13). This is best termed, I think, an EPIC FAIL. The old right arm was 64% Obama, and this new version is 63%. I maintained the anchor in Lower Merion Township and Narberth, since their combined 71% Obama goodness is just too good to give up. Combined, this raises Obama’s performance here by another 1% to 58.5%.

So there you have it, a new, 18-seat map for Pennsylvania. Comments? Questions? Which state should I do next? Please share what you think the districts look like, also!

Heinous wingnut Michelle Malkin is breathlessly reporting a leaked GOP internal poll in PA-12 showing incumbent John Murtha (D) losing by approximately 13 points to GOP challenger Bill Russell.

Dane and Associates (R) (10/22, 800 likely voters)

John Murtha (D-inc): 34.8

Bill Russell (R): 47.6

Update: I should point out that we don’t have a full press release on this, and as one commenter pointed out, for all we know this could be a message-testing poll. In other words, they might be preceding the poll question with negative information about Murtha and/or positive info about Russell. If more info is released, I will update further.

Murtha had a reverse-Macaca moment recently when he called western Pennsylvania a “racist area” and said that the area until recent years used to be “really redneck”. Predictably, these comments have not been received well, much as Michelle Bachmann’s “anti-American” comments changed the dynamic in her district. Another poll by Republican pollster Susquehanna Polling & Research conducted a day prior for consevative rag the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (the Mellon Scaife outfit) showed Murtha up by 5 points but very vulnerable.

Susquehanna POlling & Research (R) (10/21, 400 likely voters)

John Murtha (D-inc): 46

Bill Russell (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

It should be noted that Russell used BMW Direct for fundraising, a scam company that raises huge amounts of money for longshot candidates and keeps most of the money for itself. In the 3rd quarter, Russell raised an eyebrow-raising $1.592 million, and “spent” $1.529 million (ie, about 95% went to BMW Direct from the looks of it). Murtha, on the other hand, raised $457k and spent all of it presumably on defending his seat. The CoH picture is not really confidence-inspiring – Murtha reported $591k to Russell’s $333k. The PVI of this district is D+5, so if we do lose this seat, it will become a top priority challenge next cycle. Bill Russell is way more conservative than this district (Malkin has been pumping for him all year), but his millitary-hero story is likely to win him some points.

Unfortunately for Murtha and Kanjorski, the fierce anti-incumbent mood that has been playing in Pennsylvania since 2006 (causing huge turnover in state legislative races) can topple Democrats as well as Republicans.

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