Tag: House

The slow trickle of open seats left by House Republicans is beginning to become a drum beat.  Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL), who has been dogged by inquiries regarding his suspect land deals in Nicaragua in recent weeks, is going to bail out on Congress after his current term expires, according to Roll Call.

Weller’s district is competitive terrain that Bush won by a 53%-46% margin in 2004, but only by two points against Al Gore.  Earlier today, Trent wrote that Emily’s List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to run for the seat.  An open seat here would undoubtedly launch this Illinois district into the top tier of 2008’s House races–meaning another headache for the GOP.

(H/T: TPM EC)

Race Tracker: IL-11

UPDATE (David): Weller made it official on Friday.

Republican Rep. Peter King, apparently channeling the same demons that possess Rep. Virgil Goode (R-VA), unleashed some harsh words towards the American Muslim community in a recent interview:

Unfortunately, we have too many mosques in this country. There are too many people who are sympathetic to radical Islam. We should be looking at them more carefully. We should be finding out how we can infiltrate. […]

I think there’s been a lack of full cooperation from too many people in the Muslim community. And it’s a real threat here in this country.

You can watch the interview yourself over at YouTube.  As ThinkProgress notes, this is hardly the first time that King has had harsh words for Muslim-Americans.

Republicans benefited from a 9/11 bounce in King’s district in 2004, when Bush carried the Long Island-based 3rd District by 5 points after losing by 8 to Gore four years earlier.  His normally lofty re-election margins took a hit last year, when he dispatched late-starting challenger Dave Mejias by a 56%-44% margin.  If, however, you believe that the Democratic presidential nominee will rebound to Gore’s 2000 margin (or better), then targeting King for defeat could be worthwhile.

After being nailed by the Chicago Tribune over his suspicious Latin American investments, it looks like Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL) might not be running for re-election. According to the Daily Southtown, Weller is certainly sending those signals:

Rumors are circulating that Weller may decide against another term, particularly in light of the bad press he is receiving over his Guatemalan financial interests. Phone calls, I'm told, have been made to his top donors indicating he may be preparing to “hang it up.” His family, after all, lives in Guatemala. That's a long commute.

[…] 

He has not returned phone calls to the media, no matter the topic, for weeks. 

In addtion, The Capitol Fax reports that Weller hasn't started circulating the nominating petitions required for his name to appear on the ballot. 

So who'll step in to fill the void if Weller opts out? Although he's also taken up the habit of not returning phone calls from the media, it's rumored that Joliet bank president Jim Roolf is considering a run for the Republicans. And Emily's List is heavily recruiting state Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson (D-Crete) to enter the race. It's pretty certain that this seat, with a PVI of R+1.1, will be competitive no matter what Weller decides.

(h/t to Faithfully Liberal) 

With the bombshell news of Republican Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement, it’s about time to post another edition of our ongoing House Open Seat Watch series. Much has changed since our last installment in this series back in August. The list of House retirements has swelled with the addition of Reps. Renzi, Pickering, Pryce, Hastert, and, of course, Ramstad. We’ve also had to scratch one retirement, as Illinois Democrat Luís Gutiérrez has withdrawn his resignation.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeats, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Will resign
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate
MN-03	Ramstad	R	R+0.5	62	Retiring
MS-03	Pickering	R	R+14.1	45	Retiring
OH-15	Pryce	R	R+1.1	57	Retiring

Ramstad’s retirement is a serious blow to House Republicans, who now have to deal with several open seats in politically competitive terrain that could easily fall to strong Democratic challengers. Personally popular, Ramstad enjoyed robust margins of victory in a district that Bush won by only four and three point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Add to that the likely vacancy left behind by GOP Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia as he attempts to block former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner’s ascendancy to the Senate, and Republicans are facing a burgeoning amount of marginal seats without incumbents in 2008. Retaking the House is looking harder and harder with every retirement for the NRCC.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	72	Speculation/Rumors
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
CT-04	Shays	R	D+5.4	63	Threatening retirement
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IL-16	Manzullo	R	R+4.5	64	Speculation
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NJ-03	Saxton	R	D+3.3	60	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	56	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-01	Davis, JoAnn	R	R+8.9	58	Rumors/Health issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

Not many changes here: Chrissy Shays (R-CT) is in, and despite his vow to run again, Jerry Lewis (R-CA) is staying on (you never know when an indictment will drop). It’s well worth mentioning, however, that several of the most recent retirements (Pryce, Pickering, and Ramstad) were genuine surprises and were not found on the previous list of potential retirements. We will very likely be surprised again in the coming days, weeks, and months.

Any other retirement rumors floating through your tubes?

And yet another Republican Congressman decides they're just not fit for life in the minority: 

U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, R-Minn., will not seek a 10th term, said two state Republican officials. 

The officials spoke on the condition that they not be identified so as not to pre-empt Ramstad's announcement. Ramstad's office had scheduled a news conference for 3 p.m. in Minnetonka.

Ramstad's district is seriously competitive for Democrats. The district has a PVI of R+0.5 and supported Bush over Kerry by only 3 points. This seat should quickly become a top DCCC target.

(h/t to a familiar name over at TPM)

Update: Heavy analysis of the district and potential candidates at MNPublius.

Race Tracker: MN-03

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
CA-03 – R+7,
GA-01 – R+?,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NC-06 – R+17,
OH-05 – R+10,

But 1 goes back to uncontested:
IN-05 – R+20 (Ellis is not running).

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

336 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 103 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 103
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 27
Districts without any candidates – 70

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-01 – R+?,
GA-09 – R+?,
GA-10 – R+?,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-05 – R+10,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NC-05 – R+15,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
CA-45 – R+3,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-03 – R+?,
GA-06 – R+?,
GA-07 – R+?,
GA-11 – R+?,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
NC-10 – R+15,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
IN-05 – R+20,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – R+13,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 20 states with a full slate, and 5 states with one race to fill! That is half the states with a full or nearly full slate of candidates 14 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland has set the primary and special election dates to fill the vacancy of the late Republican Rep. Paul Gillmor.  The primary will be held on November 6th, and the special election on December 11th.

Ohio’s 5th is sharply Republican turf, with a PVI of R+10.  To put that into perspective, only six Democrats in the House represent districts with a redder hue.  State Rep. Bob Latta, a Republican, has thrown his hat into the ring, but he may face primary competition.  For the Democrats, 2004 and 2006 nominee Robin Weirauch may try again.  Weirauch, a Bowling Green State University employee, scored 33% of the vote on her first attempt and 43% last year in a tough statewide environment for Ohio Republicans.  I’ve also heard that Judge James Sherck, a Democrat who contested this seat four times from 1978 to 1984 (and only came close once, in ’82), and Tiffin city councillor Mike Grandillo as possible entrants.

Race Tracker: OH-05

In a front-page exposé, the Chicago Tribune today delved into the questionable Latin American investments of Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL): 

In 2002 Weller made his first official congressional trip to Nicaragua. Before the year was over, he had bought his first lot and eventually began looking for land he could subdivide into parcels that would attract buyers looking for prime ocean-view property at a relatively low price. It is an unusual investment for a member of Congress, and Weller's foreign land holdings seem far more extensive than any other House member's.

His investment got a boost from the narrowly passed Central America Free Trade Agreement, which Weller pitched in 2005 as a tool to enable businesses in his hard-pressed district to sell tractors and food to Latin America. CAFTA also includes additional legal protection for American investors, including those who have purchased lots from Weller.

What he didn't say was that, while he publicly pushed CAFTA, Weller privately was pursuing his land development, some 2,000 miles away. The House approved the trade pact in July 2005 by only two votes, 217-215.

Besides not mentioning his Nicaraguan investments during the CAFTA debate on the House floor, Weller did not give anywhere close to a complete accounting of them in his required 2005 financial disclosure statement. House ethics rules require representatives to disclose all property they own except for their personal residences.

Although Weller defeated his opponent last year by a healthy 10 points, the district has a PVI of only R+1.1. And while Kerry lost the district by 7 points, Gore came within 2. Weller's ethical troubles should definitely put this seat in play. 

UPDATE (James): And where is Weller to defend himself from the bullies at the Tribune?  The answer: in hiding.

When asked about the discrepancies, Weller’s office first insisted that questions be given to the congressman in writing. After a week passed with no response to the written questions, The Tribune requested to talk to Weller in person. On Thursday afternoon, Weller’s spokesman said he would not answer questions and had no comment.

The congressman missed all recorded House votes in Washington this week. His spokesman said he was out of the city, caring for his 1-year-old daughter.

Currently, the only prospective candidate against Weller is Jerry Weber, the president of Kankakee Community College.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if other local Democrats might be taking a closer look at this race given these recent developments.

(h/t to the Stakeholder and Prarie State Blue)

According to the Buckeye State Blog, Presidential candidate and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich is set to face a major new primary opponent for his Cleveland-based House seat:

Dean DePiero, Mayor of Parma – Ohio’s seventh largest city with 80,000 residents – is tossing his hat into the Primary carnival to take out Democratic Congressman and presidential wannabe Dennis Kucinich. While BSB followed up on rumors of Dean’s interest back in May, nothing ever came of it. Until now.

Over the weekend I spoke with two reliable sources. One source confirmed that he had spoken with Dean directly, and Dean claimed to be committed to the race. Another source confirmed that throughout the summer (notably August) DePiero had been busy cultivating donors. Also, I’ve heard multiple whispers that a poll may’ve been commissioned already, but I don’t have further info there.

I have no details on kick off, entrance, official word from Dean or any of that. Calls placed to DePiero’s campaign office on Wednesday have gone unreturned. However, I repeat, one of my sources spoke with DePiero directly, and Dean claimed he was in the race.

DePiero, a former state representative and Ohio House Minority Leader, would offer Kucinich his stiffest challenge yet, forcing the candidate to spend less time on the Presidential trail and more time in his own district.  This could have huge implications on the local and national level.

Check out the Buckeye State Blog for more analysis and details.

Another month, another tally of how well the top twenty Democratic House challengers are performing on Actblue.com.

State	CD	Candidate	Actblue Total	Contributions	Avg. Donation
MA	5	Niki Tsongas	$195,933	570	$343.74
CO	2	Jared Polis	$162,837	422	$385.87
WA	8	Darcy Burner	$111,018	3,107	$35.73
ME	1	Chellie Pingree	$107,820	273	$394.95
CA	26	Russ Warner	$96,214	348	$276.48
IL	10	Dan Seals	$78,703	250	$314.81
MO	6	Kay Barnes	$75,829	133	$570.14
NY	29	Eric Massa	$74,053	904	$81.92
AZ	3	Bob Lord	$73,715	190	$387.97
TX	10	Dan Grant	$62,080	165	$376.24
NY	26	Jon Powers	$56,062	347	$161.56
CA	4	Charlie Brown	$49,960	1,168	$42.77
FL	8	Mike Smith	$49,925	74	$674.66
NM	1	Martin Heinrich	$46,399	249	$186.34
MD	4	Donna Edwards	$46,001	828	$55.56
NC	8	Larry Kissell	$35,968	362	$99.36
CT	4	Jim Himes	$30,452	203	$150.01
MT	AL	Bill Kennedy	$21,016	80	$262.70
IL	14	John Laesch	$19,136	285	$67.14
IA	4	Selden Spencer	$19,000	126	$150.79

The biggest story of the month, of course, is Darcy Burner’s meteoric rise up the charts to the number 3 slot, after riding a wave of donations from the Burn Bush fundraiser (propelled by blogs such as DailyKos, Eschaton, Open Left, MyDD, SSP and other local and national blogs). The impressive display of netroots muscle prompted her primary challenger, Democratic state Senator Rodney Tom, to exit the race and endorse Burner.

You can compare this update with last month’s tally here.

Update: Following the suggestion of an astute and loyal reader, I’ve added another column for the average contribution. It’s quite clear that, in terms of small donors, Darcy Burner, Charlie Brown, and Donna Edwards are all basking in the warm glow of people power.