Tag: House

A Republican congressman leaving threatening voice mails for a couple who had backed a GOP rival because they highlighted the money he took from the gambling industry? Let me guess, is he a member of the Club for Growth? Ding ding! Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-CO-05) is a “growth” all right… one that ought to be surgically removed from the body politic in the next congressional election.

Below the flip, try to figure out whether or not he returned the money.

Federal records show that Lamborn received a $1,000 check Jan. 30, 2007, from the IGT PAC. Records also show receipt of $500 from Murphy last summer.

Lamborn said he has returned both contributions, but he could not say when that was done.

Nancy Brown, a spokeswoman for Jones Vargas, a law firm in Reno, Nev., that represents IGT, said the company’s PAC sent a $1,000 contribution to Lamborn in January. She said Lamborn returned the check, although she could not provide the date of the return.

Federal records do not show that the check was returned.

Hmmmm, sure ya did, Doug. The couple in question supported Jeff Crank, Lamborn’s top GOP rival in last year’s 6-way Republican primary, who barely lost by a margin of 27% to 25.4%. The wife worked for Crank as a scheduler for two months. Is Jeff coming back to challenge Lamborn in 2008? You bet. The district has a PVI of 15.7, however, so even with a bruising GOP primary, it will be tough for any Democrat to win – last go-round, Jay Fawcett lost by 19%. So far this district lacks any confirmed or rumored Democratic candidates, and I couldn’t find any info suggesting Fawcett would try again.

The Denver Post has the text of the messages, including this gem:

And like I said I’d rather resolve this on a Scriptural level but if you are unwilling to do that I will be forced to take other steps, which I would rather not have to do.

Race Tracker for CO-05

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
AZ-06 – R+12,
DE-AL – D+7,
IL-13 – R+5,
IN-05 – R+20,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
TX-31 – R+15,

But 1 is now back to uncontested:
TX-11 – R+25, (our candidate withdrew to take a job in DC).

And 1 moves back to rumoured candidate:
NE-02 – R+9, (I don’t think Esch has committed to running yet)

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
***I have included Cook PVI numbers where possible after blogger requests to do so!***

Below the fold for all the news……

331 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 98 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 98
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 31
Districts without any candidates – 71

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01 – R+12,
AL-03 – R+4,
AL-04 – R+16,
AK-AL – R+14,
AZ-01 – R+2,
AZ-02 – R+9,
AZ-03 – R+6,
AZ-06 – R+12,
AR-03 – R+11,
CA-04 – R+11,
CA-24 – R+5,
CA-26 – R+4,
CA-40 – R+8,
CA-41 – R+9,
CA-42 – R+10,
CA-44 – R+6,
CA-48 – R+8,
CA-50 – R+5,
CA-52 – R+9,
CO-04 – R+9,
CT-04 – D+5,
DE-AL – D+7,
FL-01 – R+19,
FL-08 – R+3,
FL-09 – R+4,
FL-10 – D+1,
FL-13 – R+4,
FL-14 – R+10,
FL-15 – R+4,
FL-24 – R+3,
GA-09,
GA-10,
ID-01 – R+19,
IL-06 – R+2.9,
IL-10 – D+4,
IL-13 – R+5,
IL-14 – R+5,
IL-16 – R+4,
IL-19 – R+8,
IN-03 – R+16,
IN-04 – R+17,
IN-05 – R+20,
IN-06 – R+11,
IA-04 – D+0,
IA-05 – R+8,
KY-04 – R+11.7,
LA-01 – R+18,
MD-01 – R+10,
MD-06 – R+13,
MI-07 – R+2,
MI-09 – R+0,
MN-06 – R+5,
MO-06 – R+5,
MO-09 – R+7,
MT-AL – R+11,
NV-03 – D+1,
NJ-05 – R+4,
NJ-07 – R+1,
NJ-11 – R+6,
NM-01 – D+2,
NM-02 – R+6,
NY-13 – D+1,
NY-25 – D+3,
NY-26 – R+3,
NY-29 – R+5,
NC-03 – R+15,
NC-08 – R+3,
NC-09 – R+12,
OH-01 – R+1,
OH-02 – R+13,
OH-07 – R+6,
OH-14 – R+2,
OH-15 – R+1,
OH-16 – R+4,
OK-05 – R+12,
PA-03 – R+2,
PA-09 – R+15,
PA-15 – D+2,
PA-16 – R+11,
PA-18 – R+2,
TX-04 – R+17,
TX-08 – R+20,
TX-10 – R+13,
TX-13 – R+18,
TX-26 – R+12,
TX-31 – R+15,
VA-01 – R+9,
VA-05 – R+6,
VA-06 – R+11,
VA-10 – R+5,
VA-11 – R+1,
WA-04 – R+13,
WA-08 – D+2,
WV-02 – R+5,
WI-01 – R+2,
WI-05 – R+12,
WI-06 – R+5,
WY-AL – R+19,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
OH-05 – R+10,
SC-04 – R+15,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02 – R+13,
CA-03 – R+7,
CA-45 – R+3,
FL-06 – R+8,
FL-12 – R+5,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-11,
ID-02 – R+19,
IL-11 – R+1.1,
IL-18 – R+5.5,
KS-04 – R+12,
KY-05 – R+8,
MN-02 – R+2.7,
NE-02 – R+9,
NE-03 – R+23.6,
NV-02 – R+8.2,
NJ-02 – D+4.0,
NJ-03 – D+3.3,
NJ-04 – R+0.9,
NY-03 – D+2.1,
NC-05 – R+15,
OK-03 – R+18,
OK-04 – R+13,
PA-06 – D+2.2,
TN-07 – R+12,
TX-02 – R+12,
TX-11 – R+25,
UT-03 – R+22,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06 – R+25,
CA-02 – R+13,
CA-19 – R+10,
CA-21 – R+13,
CA-22 – R+16,
CA-25 – R+7,
CA-46 – R+6,
CA-49 – R+10,
CO-05 – R+15.7,
CO-06 – R+10,
FL-04 – R+16,
FL-05 – R+5,
FL-07 – R+3,
FL-18 – R+4,
FL-21 – R+6,
FL-25 – R+4,
IL-15 – R+6,
KS-01 – R+20,
KY-01 – R+10,
KY-02 – R+12.9,
LA-04 – R+7,
LA-05 – R+10,
LA-06 – R+7,
LA-07 – R+7,
MI-02 – R+9,
MI-03 – R+9,
MI-04 – R+3,
MI-06 – R+2.3,
MI-08 – R+1.9,
MI-10 – R+4,
MI-11 – R+1.2,
MN-03 – R+0.5,
MS-01 – R+10,
MS-03 – R+14,
MO-02 – R+9,
MO-07 – R+14,
MO-08 – R+11,
NE-01 – R+11,
NY-23 – R+0.2,
NC-06 – R+17,
NC-10 – R+15,
OH-03 – R+3,
OH-04 – R+14,
OH-08 – R+12,
OH-12 – R+0.7,
OK-01 – R+13,
OR-02 – R+11,
PA-05 – R+10,
PA-19 – R+12,
SC-01 – R+10,
SC-02 – R+9,
SC-03 – R+14,
TN-01 – R+14,
TN-02 – R+11,
TN-03 – R+8,
TX-01 – R+17,
TX-03 – R+17,
TX-05 – R+16,
TX-06 – R+15,
TX-07 – R+16,
TX-12 – R+14,
TX-14 – R+14,
TX-19 – R+25,
TX-21 – ,
TX-24 – R+15,
TX-32 – R+11,
UT-01 – R+26,
VA-02 – R+5.9,
VA-04 – R+5,
VA-07 – R+11,
WA-05 – R+7.1,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Idaho, Nevada, Oregon and Washington. Thats 21 states with a full slate, and 4 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in AZ-06, CA-42, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

Two weeks ago, Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce (OH-15) announced her plans not to run for re-election. Considering that Pryce defeated Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a razor-thin margin in 2006 in a district with a PVI of R+1.1, this seat was already going to be competitive in 2008. But as an open-seat, it quickly looked like one of the best prospects for a Dem pickup. 

And now things just keep getting better for our side as it appears that the NRCC is having trouble fielding a candidate in the race:

Northeast Ohio native and former Attorney General Jim Petro has ruled out a run for Congress, setting his sights instead on Ohio's next Supreme Court chief justice.  Party leaders, including House GOP leader John Boehner of Ohio, had urged Petro, a moderate Republican who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, to run next year for a seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Deborah Pryce of suburban Columbus.

And shortly afterwards: 

Former Mayor Greg Lashutka said today he will not seek the GOP nomination in 2008 for the 15th Congressional District seat being vacated at the end of next year by retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce, an Upper Arlington Republican.  Lashutka ruled out a run about an hour after former Attorney General Jim Petro said he will not seek the congressional seat, leaving local GOP officials scrambling for a candidate against Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, the favoried Democrat who narrowly lost to Pryce in 2006.

This comes on the heels of two other recruitment failures for the NRCC as State Sen. Steve Stivers and State Rep. Jim Hughes both turned down a race for the seat.

(h/t Buckeye State Blog)

More waffling from former Ohio Republican AG Jim Petro on his prospective bid to succeed Deborah Pryce in the House:

Former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro is leaning against a run for the 15th Congressional District seat to be vacated at the end of 2008 by the retirement of incumbent Republican Rep. Deborah Pryce, according to Republican sources.

Petro has been considered the leading GOP candidate for the congressional seat, but sources close to him said it appears Petro will forgo the race and keep open the option of running for Ohio chief justice in 2010.

Petro declined to comment on whether he would pull his name from consideration for Congress. “I have not reached a decision, but will soon,” he told The Dispatch this afternoon.

As Bones would say: dammit, Jim!

According to the Columbus Dispatch, another potential candidate, Republican state Rep. Jim Hughes has put his name out of contention.  But there are other names in the field:

The potential field of GOP candidates to replace Pryce quickly is narrowing. Former Franklin County Commissioner Dewey Stokes has expressed interest in running. Former Columbus Mayor Greg Lashutka also is gaining traction in some Republican circles. Lashutka, an executive with Nationwide Insurance, has been unavailable for comment on whether he is entertaining a bid for Congress.

Buckeye State Blog has more on Lashutka:

Lashutka’s the former two term mayor of Columbus who didn’t run for re-election in ’99 due to health concerns. He’s also an OSU namesake, having played tight-end for the fabled Woody Hayes in the 60’s. Since he left office, he’s stayed involved in the community, and served a prominent role with nationwide insurance. Republicans know they can still count on Lashutka at fundraising events these days, and he even makes it out to stuff for the Democrats occasionally too. The man has been out of politics through the Bush years, so it’s more difficult to tarnish him with the image of the modern day GOPer.

Lashutka could be a strong nominee, and I don’t expect Republicans to cede this race any time soon.  But with the district’s Democratic trend (Kerry improved upon Gore’s performance by 6% here), the organizational advantages and name recognition built up by Kilroy, and a Presidential race that could tilt Ohio towards the D column, Lashutka or any other Republican candidate would have to show some hustle.

With the retirements of Reps. Hastert (IL-14), Pryce (OH-15), and Pickering (MS-03) last week, the Republican caucus has been bracing itself for more surprises.  Today brings another retirement: embattled Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-01).  From Roll Call:

Rep. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) said Thursday in a statement obtained by Roll Call that he will not seek re-election in 2008, ending months of speculation regarding the ethically clouded Congressman’s political future.

“I will not be seeking re-election to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. I am honored and thankful to serve Arizona’s first district and appreciate all that we have accomplished together over the past 6 years.” […]

Renzi staved off a spirited challenge from his Democratic challenger last cycle, but saw his political fortunes plummet following an FBI raid of a business connected to his family as part of a federal probe into his dealings as a Congressman.

Renzi has not admitted to any wrongdoing, but it has become increasingly clear that the investigation would imperil any 2008 re-election bid, and possibly result in him facing multiple GOP primary challengers.

This one is not so surprising.  While Republicans will likely to view this as some necessary bloodletting, Arizona’s 1st will likely be a top tier race next year.  With a PVI of R+2.2, it’s had a Republican lean over the past two Presidential cycles, but not an insurmountable one.  The Democratic field includes State Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Mary Kim Titla and attorney Howard Shanker.  It remains to be seen whether or not Arizona Republicans will field a Randy Graf-type here.  In any event, this race will be a barn-burner.

Huge news out of Michigan:

State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer said Thursday he will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after declining earlier overtures to enter the race.

“Tim Walberg is not doing the job,” Schauer told The Associated Press on Thursday. “He is serving a very narrow interest. He’s really been a servant of the Bush-Cheney administration and the extreme special interests in Washington.” […]

Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term as minority leader through 2010, said he will keep being the Democratic leader while running for Congress. He said he changed his mind about running after being approached by both rank-and-file constituents and party leaders.

The push by others for him to join the race “almost became deafening,” Schauer said. […}

Schauer is seen as a strong candidate by Democrats because he is known as a vigorous campaigner and almost all of his state Senate seat is located within the 7th District – giving him a base of support.

Schauer is a big name in Michigan politics, and his state Senate seat is based in Battle Creek, the heart of the 7th district.  Walberg, as you may recall, rode a wave of hard-right support from the Club For Growth to defeat sitting congressman Joe Schwarz in the Republican primary in 2006.  With only token Democratic opposition, Walberg scored a win that November, but snagged just shy of 50% of the vote against Democrat Sharon Renier.

With Schauer, an aggressive campaigner, in the picture, Walberg won’t be nearly so lucky in 2008.  While he faces a primary with former state Senator Jim Berryman, lawyer David Nacht, and Renier, Schauer has to be considered the front-runner.

This race just skyrocketed up the list of potential House Democratic pick-ups in 2008.

You can read Schauer’s full press release over at Michigan Liberal.

UPDATE: In the diaries, Fitzy of  Walberg Watch, has much, much more.

Hot on the heels of the back-to-back-to-back retirement announcements of Republican Reps. Hastert (IL-14), Pryce (OH-15), and Pickering (MS-03), the speculation has run rampant of a potential “flood” of Republican House retirements in the coming months.  As we noted last Friday, there have actually been fewer Republican retirement announcements this year than at this point in the ’05/’06 cycle.  However, the announcements of Pryce and Pickering–both relatively younger incumbents who could have potentially enjoyed long careers in the House–were legitimate bombshells within Washington.

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report (sub. required) takes a look at the retirement picture, and finds that while the dam hasn’t broken for Republicans yet, things are still looking grim:

Still, if history is any guide, we should expect a significant number of Republican lawmakers to call it quits in 2008 and a considerably higher incumbent retention rate for Democrats. In the vast majority of cases over the past century, when a party has suffered a major (25+ House seat) loss in a midterm election, a higher percentage of the losing party’s members have opted to step down in the succeeding presidential year. This pattern confirms the obvious: that new-found minority status provides House members less incentive to stay put.

After the last party takeover of Congress in 1994, wave-riding Republicans saw 21 in their ranks make plans to step down, while the minority Democrats saw 28 in their ranks bid farewell. Ultimately, Republicans picked off 10 open Democratic seats in the 1996 House elections, while Democrats picked up just four open GOP seats. Although Democrats held a vast advantage in scoring incumbent defeats, Republican net gain of six open seats seriously impeded Democrats’ efforts to rebound into the majority that year.

Even though the cumulative total of open seats remains fairly low at this point, Republicans are concerned about last week’s developments for reasons much broader than the emergence of three new pieces of turf to defend.

For one thing, although the August recess is one of the more popular times for members of Congress to return home to districts and announce plans, it’s no coincidence that retirement announcements to date have disproportionately come in states with some of the earlier primary filing deadlines in the country (Illinois, home to Hastert and LaHood, has a first-in-the-nation filing deadline of November 5, 2007). And, while Hastert and LaHood’s departures were at least somewhat foreseen, Pryce and Pickering’s departures were bombshells. Republicans express nervousness that additional delegations could see multiple retirements as their filing deadlines draw nearer and that additional members of the conference could drop reelection plans without much warning.

It’s also difficult to diminish the fact that the Republicans who announced retirements in the past month have been some of the most widely admired and respected members of the GOP conference during their tenures in Congress. As the longest-serving Republican Speaker of the House, Hastert was the unity choice of Republicans for the top post following the Gingrich-Livingston post-impeachment debacle of 1998. And as Republican Conference Secretary, Vice Chair, and Chair, and a member of the Republican Main Street Partnership, Pryce was one of the most prominent behind-the-scenes leaders of moderate House Republicans throughout her congressional career. How many of their best friends and allies in the House will decide to follow their lead? Republican campaign chiefs will have to work hard to keep this number to a minimum.

One such delegation with multiple retirements could easily be Ohio, where the smart money says that Reps. Regula and Hobson will retire in 2008.  In our last edition of the House Open Seat Watch, we offered many more possibilities, but it is worth noting that Pryce and Pickering were not even a blip on our radar a few weeks ago.

Another factor that might be of relevance is the $15 million ad campaign paid by a White House front group, targeting mostly Republican incumbents in the House and Senate and admonishing them to stay the course in Iraq.  By placing its team members between a rock (public opinion) and a hard place (the iron boot of Republican loyalty), could Ari Fleischer and friends actually inspire more incumbents to say “screw this” and jump ship?  Just a thought.

After a number of requests in previous diaries here it is. The same style diary, the same methodology and the same layout so as to allow you dear reader to compare us to them!

So below the fold to see how the Repubs are doing in House candidate recruiting for 2008!

A hint – They are doing really crap.

249 House races have confirmed Republican candidates – yep only 249!!! So as not to give any Repub trolls any hints this diary is very light on for analysis.

However it goes without saying that from these numbers the Repubs are really struggling to find candidates for House races in 2008. Wonder why? Just look at the number of unfilled races in California and New York.

Before we crack open the bubbly however a few cautionary notes.

– It is harder to find Repub candidates because they don’t have a central fundraising hub like ActBlue.
– I didn’t trawl through Repub blogs as much as I would through ours (try it yourself and you will see why!)
– Very few State Repub Party sites had up to date lists of candidates. More Dem State Party sites did.
– The Repubs don’t have a Swing State Project or 2008 Race Tracker wiki so again it is harder to find their candidates.
– Expect a lot more of their 2006 candidates to step up as sacrificial lambs later in the cycle.
– I am sure I have missed some candidates but not many as I FEC searched all 2006 candidates as well as checking out their websites for updates.

*** Despite all that hedging we are soooo far in front of them!!!***

So here is where we are at (Democratic Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 47
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 18
Districts without any candidates – 167!

1) The Democratic held districts with confirmed Republican challengers are as follows:
AL-05,
AZ-07,
CA-05,
CA-09,
CA-10,
CA-11,
CA-23,
CA-37,
CA-47,
CT-02,
CT-05,
FL-02,
FL-11,
FL-16,
FL-22,
FL-23,
GA-08,
GA-13,
IL-08,
IN-01,
IN-02,
IN-08,
IN-09,
KS-02,
KS-03,
KY-03,
ME-01,
MD-04,
MD-08,
MA-04,
MA-05,
MA-06,
MI-05,
MN-01,
NH-01,
NY-19,
NY-20,
NC-11,
OH-10,
OH-18,
PA-04,
PA-07,
TX-22,
TX-23,
TX-29,
VA-08,
WV-03,

2) The following Democratic districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NC-07,

3) The following Democratic districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AZ-05,
AZ-08,
CA-06,
CA-12,
CA-20,
CO-02,
GA-12,
MI-01,
MN-08,
NH-02,
NY-24,
ND-AL,
PA-08,
PA-10,
PA-11,
RI-01,
WA-09,
WI-08,

4) And last but not least the following districts have not a single rumoured GOP candidate:
AL-07,
AZ-04,
AR-01,
AR-02,
AR-04,
CA-01,
CA-07,
CA-08,
CA-13,
CA-14,
CA-15,
CA-16,
CA-17,
CA-18,
CA-27,
CA-28,
CA-29,
CA-30,
CA-31,
CA-32,
CA-33,
CA-34,
CA-35,
CA-36,
CA-38,
CA-39,
CA-43,
CA-51,
CA-53,
CO-01,
CO-03,
CO-07,
CT-01,
CT-03,
FL-03,
FL-17,
FL-19,
FL-20,
GA-02,
GA-04,
GA-05,
HI-01,
HI-02,
IL-01,
IL-02,
IL-03,
IL-04,
IL-05,
IL-07,
IL-09,
IL-12,
IL-17,
IN-07,
IA-01,
IA-05,
IA-03,
KY-06,
LA-02,
LA-03,
ME-02,
MD-02,
MD-03,
MD-05,
MD-07,
MA-01,
MA-02,
MA-03,
MA-07,
MA-08,
MA-09,
MA-10,
MI-12,
MI-13,
MI-14,
MI-15,
MN-04,
MN-05,
MN-07,
MS-02,
MS-04,
MO-01,
MO-03,
MO-04,
MO-05,
NV-01,
NJ-01,
NJ-06,
NJ-08,
NJ-09,
NJ-10,
NJ-12,
NJ-13,
NM-03,
NY-01,
NY-02,
NY-04,
NY-05,
NY-06,
NY-07,
NY-08,
NY-09,
NY-10,
NY-11,
NY-12,
NY-14,
NY-15,
NY-16,
NY-17,
NY-18,
NY-21,
NY-22,
NY-27,
NY-28,
NC-01,
NC-02,
NC-04,
NC-12,
NC-13,
OH-06,
OH-09,
OH-11,
OH-13,
OH-17,
OK-02,
OR-01,
OR-03,
OR-04,
OR-05,
PA-01,
PA-02,
PA-12,
PA-13,
PA-14,
PA-17,
RI-02,
SC-05,
SC-06,
SD-AL,
TN-04,
TN-05,
TN-06,
TN-07,
TN-09,
TX-09,
TX-15,
TX-16,
TX-17,
TX-18,
TX-20,
TX-25,
TX-27,
TX-28,
TX-30,
UT-02,
VT-AL,
VA-03,
VA-09,
WA-01,
WA-02,
WA-03,
WA-06,
WA-07,
WV-01,
WI-02,
WI-03,
WI-04,
WI-07,

And don’t forget 2 races will probably become uncontested when the special elections are done in CA-37 and MA-05.

Woo hoo to the Democratic Party we are implementing the 50 State Strategy in spades whilst the GOP are playing rats jumping off a sinking ship.

Last month, we had a lively open thread discussion wherein SSP readers ranked the 2008 Senate races based on each seat’s likelihood of flipping party control.  For the hell of it, let’s try it again, only for House races.  Below is a list of 50 potentially competitive House seats, 30 of which are held by Republicans, and 20 held by Democrats.  Open seats are in italics, and the links are to the 2008 Race Tracker wiki for more background.  Of these 50, create a list of the top 10, 20, 30, or even 50 (if you’re very dedicated) seats that are likeliest to change party hands next year.  I know that I’m missing some other potentially competitive races, so please don’t interpret this post as my view of 2008’s House “playing field”.  Some of these races are extremely unlikely to change hands, but I’d still like to see other takes.

R	R	R	D	D
AK-AL AZ-01 AZ-03 CA-04 CA-26 CO-04 CT-04 FL-13 ID-01 IL-10	IL-14 IL-18 MI-07 MI-09 MO-06 MS-03 NC-08 NJ-07 NM-01 NV-03	NY-25 NY-26 NY-29 OH-01 OH-02 OH-14 OH-15 OH-16 WA-08 WV-02	AZ-05 AZ-08 CA-11 GA-08 GA-12 IA-03 IN-02 IN-08 IN-09 KS-02	MN-01 NH-01 NY-19 NY-20 OH-18 PA-04 PA-10 TX-22 TX-23 WI-08

I hope you have your crystal balls in hand.

*****This diary serves as an update of Democratic Party House candidate filing. To provide a comparison I will post the equivalent diary for the Republicans tomorrow as requested in the comments thread of previous house diaries.*****

Well 6 more districts now have candidates:
FL-14,
GA-10,
IL-16,
IL-19,
NY-13,
VA-01,

But 1 is now back to uncontested:
NY-23, (our candidate withdrew).

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
Below the fold for all the news.

326 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 93 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 93
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 1
Districts with rumoured candidates – 30
Districts without any candidates – 78

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01,
AL-03,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-41,
CA-42,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-10,
FL-13,
FL-14,
FL-15,
FL-24,
GA-09,
GA-10,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IL-16,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MI-09,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-13,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
OK-05,
PA-03,
PA-09,
PA-15,
PA-16,
PA-18,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-26,
VA-01,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
VA-11,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WV-02,
WI-01,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

2) The following 1 GOP held district has a candidate that is expected to run but is yet to confirm:
SC-04,

3) The following GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-11,
IL-18,
KY-05,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NC-05,
OK-03,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,

4) And last but not least the following  districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-18,
FL-21,
FL-25,
IL-06,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NY-23,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-14,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Thats 18 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in CA-42, TX-11, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***