Tag: House

With the surprise retirement announcement of Republican Rep. Chip Pickering on Thursday, the bulk of the attention has been focused on potential Republican candidates for the seat (see here).  Given that Pickering’s district has a strong Republican lean (R+14.1), such speculation is certainly understandably.  But a Democratic bench does indeed exist in Mississippi’s third, and with the obvious Republican heavyweight, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck (herself a former Democrat), declining the opportunity to run according to the Commercial Dispatch, the field could get a lot more interesting on both sides of the partisan divide.

One such Democratic bench member with ties to the district is none other than former state Attorney General Mike Moore, and currently practices law in Jackson, a city partially located within the 3rd Congressional District.  Moore, who left a stellar record during his time as AG, was considered a likely Democratic candidate for Senate in the event of a Trent Lott or Thad Cochran retirement.  But with Cochran likely to run again, Haley Barbour looking mostly strong in his gubernatorial re-election bid this year, and the AG post safe in the hands of Democrat Jim Hood, Moore could not satisfy his statewide ambitions for at least another four or five years (either for a gubernatorial bid in 2011 or a run at Lott’s Senate seat in 2012, if open).  And while Moore was very popular during his four terms as AG from 1988-2004, the last time that his name was on the ballot was in 1999–a considerably long political hiatus.

If Moore wanted to keep his name recognition alive and well, running for–and more importantly, winning–a rare open Mississippi House seat would certainly help him keep his name in the public consciousness.  So will he do it?  The early answer, delivered via a surrogate, is no:

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore – a Democrat who ran for the U.S. House in 1989 – said he’s not interested in seeking Pickering’s seat, according to Jonathan Compretta, an associate in Moore’s law firm who’s campaign manager for current Attorney General Jim Hood.

Under normal circumstances, that would be that.  But are Mississippi Democrats willing to take that as their final answer?  According to Will Bardwell, the locals are at least putting in the effort to persuade Moore to look seriously at the race:

Word around the campfire is that Democrats are attempting to schedule a meeting with former Attorney General Mike Moore to persuade him to run for Chip Pickering’s congressional seat.

The move would make all the sense in the world for Moore, whose ultimate goal is the U.S. Senate but whose name recognition and political stock have been collecting dust since he left state government in January 2004. A seat in Congress would be an ideal launching pad and would keep Moore’s name recognition fresh while he waits for a Senate seat to open in either 2012 or 2014.

The only drawback is that, as of now, Moore carries no real political baggage, which would inevitably change in a hurry after a few years in the House of Representatives. Still, manageable political baggage may be less of a hurdle in 2012 than nearly a decade of political decay.

So on the one hand, Moore could keep his profile alive by risking controversial votes on issues such as the war in Iraq, abortion, and immigration (assuming he wins), or he could risk facing a bit of a “whodat” factor in future statewide races by not having his name on any ballot in twelve or thirteen years.

If Moore is firm in his “no”, the Democratic bench is not short on other potential recruits, such as former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and former Reps. Wayne Dowdy and Ronnie Shows (the latter of whom lost badly to Pickering in 2002 when their districts were merged after the 2000 census).  Shows, for his part, seems like a strong possibility to give this district another crack:

Shows said he’s antsy to get back in Congress and might seek the seat again.

“Certainly I’m interested in it, but I got to think about it,” he said today.

“I’m looking at it very strongly. … I miss being there, but I’ve been pretty successful since leaving,” he said.

In any event, with open seats an especially rare occurrence in Mississippi, state Democrats have pledged to field a serious contender for the open seat.  While there’s no doubt it would be an uphill climb, would-be challengers could look to Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor, who won his Mississippi House seat with 65% of the vote in a special election in 1989 less than a year after Michael Dukakis collected an ugly 30% of the district’s vote, for inspiration.

UPDATE: Cotton Mouth offers more possible Democratic and Republican candidates.

With retirement fever becoming an epidemic on Capitol Hill this week, I thought it would be useful  to take a look back at how the open seat picture unfolded in the 2006 election cycle and compare it to where we stand today.

At this point in 2005, Republicans were dealing with nine open seats of an eventual total of twenty.  Interestingly, only two of these nine were straight-up retirements, whereas the bulk of these early announcements were made by House members seeking a promotion to a statewide office.  While the rumors and speculation are rampant, only five Republicans have announced retirements this year:

However, of these five, four are “straight-up” retirements, while the fifth (Duncan Hunter) may as well be, too.  Additionally, retirements by Rick Renzi (AZ-01) and Ralph Regula (OH-16) seem all but official, and many are convinced that Dave Hobson (OH-07) will throw in the towel, as well.  I don’t expect that we’ll see too many Republican House members (if any) bothering to try their hand at statewide races next year, but I do expect, with the shocking retirement announcements of Pryce and Pickering, that many more Republican members will test the winds during the August recess and make similar decisions (if not announcements) around Labor Day.  I believe that this rings especially true when one considers that most the “true” retirements of 2006 (i.e. the desire to end one’s political career) came in the fall/winter of ’05 and ’06.  And in a Presidential cycle, perhaps many potential retirees will feel obligated to give their would-be successors more of an opportunity to build their campaigns before the media cycle is utterly dominated by the top of the ticket.

So who’s next to grab a life preserver and bail?

According to Roll Call, Republican Rep. Chip Pickering, long considered a potential successor for either Senator Thad Cochran or Trent Lott, has decided to call it quits:

Rep. Chip Pickering (R-Miss.) has decided not to run for re-election in 2008, a knowledgeable source confirmed Thursday afternoon.

Pickering’s office did not return requests for comment Thursday. But a second source said Thursday afternoon that Pickering was scheduled to meet with his staff in his Pearl, Miss., district office at 4 p.m. Central time, apparently to discuss his political future.

[…]

Several viable candidates are expected to seek the GOP nomination to replace Pickering, including termed-out Mississippi Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck, a former Democrat who is scheduled to leave office at the end of this year.

Pickering, only 44 years old, could easily wait another four or six years for a Lott or Cochran retirement.  But perhaps he’s grown tired of waiting after being teased by potential Senate retirements for two cycles in a row.  Or maybe he’s just tired of not raking in the big bucks.  In 2003, Pickering openly mused about leaving Congress in order to take a massive annual paycheck as a telecommunications lobbyist.  It’s possible that Pickering feels, with life in an enduring House minority and no Senate promotion in immediate sight, that now is the time to cash in.

While Democrats held this district for over 100 years before Pickering claimed this open seat in 1996, it has a solid Republican advantage with a PVI of R+14.  Bush twice dominated this district by 64%-35% and 65%-34% margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  If there is a glimmer of hope for Democrats, it is that Rep. Gene Taylor, a conservative Democrat, holds a district even redder (R+16, with a 37-point margin of victory for Bush in 2004).  However, it would be a tall order for Democrats to be able to recruit someone with Taylor’s political skills to contest this seat.

To sum it up, we’ve seen three Republican retirements in a week: Hastert, Pryce, and now Pickering.  (Plus the raging rumors surrounding Dave Hobson.)  I wonder how many more surprises are in store for us.

UPDATE: The Clarion-Ledger confirms.  Pickering is outta here!

UPDATE 2: Will it be a retirement or a resignation?  First Read is “getting conflicting signals”, but suggests that “with Pickering heading to work on K Street, he might want to leave Congress before the lobbying/ethics reform legislation is signed into law”.

In the 2006 election cycle, the DCCC employed a two-pronged approach against long time Republican incumbents in an effort to hasten their retirements: a relentless barrage of press releases and paid advertising early in the cycle highlighting their Bush-supporting votes in the House, combined with the recruitment of strong challengers.  Against Nancy Johnson in Connecticut, the DCCC recruited rising star state Senator Chris Murphy.  Against veteran Clay Shaw of Florida, the Democrats turned to popular state Senator Ron Klein.  Both targets, feeling secure in their long-standing incumbency, fundraising prowess, and Majority status, ultimately chose to stick it out, and both ultimately found themselves losing to superior campaigns.

Under the stewardship of chairman Chris Van Hollen, the strategy has not changed.  This week, the committee announced a series of radio ads hitting four incumbents for their recent (and characteristically despicable) votes against children’s health insurance and expanded health benefits for seniors: Tom Feeney (FL-24), Vern Buchanan (FL-13), Bill Young (FL-10) and Jim Saxton (NJ-03).

As CQ notes, the strategy behind targeting Young and Saxton is to free up their bluish districts to revert to the Democratic fold with the help of top-tier challengers.  Saxton’s district, in particular, would be a compelling pick-up opportunity.  While the south Jersey district supported Bush in 2004 by a 51%-49% margin, it delivered its votes for Al Gore by a whopping 11 point (54%-43%) margin four years earlier.  Kerry’s poor performance here (and in several other Democratic-leaning New Jersey districts), I believe, can be attributed to the 9/11 security advantage that Bush still enjoyed in 2004, and resonated fairly strongly in a state strongly in the orbit of New York City.  But today, that advantage has evaporated for obvious reasons.

So who could emerge to be the Ron Klein-like hero to stir some fear into Saxton, a 12-term incumbent?  A few weeks ago, PoliticsNJ reported that state Senator John Adler had recently met with DCCC officials about the possibility of taking on Saxton next year, for the second time in his career:

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman John Adler met with staff at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in Washington last month to discuss a possible run for Congress next year against incumbent James Saxton, according to Democrats close to the five-term State Senator.

Despite his ambition and talent, Adler is a politician with limited political options — something that his friends say he finds exceptionally frustrating.  There was a time when he was viewed as a rising star — he was elected to the Cherry Hill Township Council at age 29, ran for Congress at age 31 (he lost to Saxon by a 58%-39% margin), and at age 32, he won an upset victory for State Senator against a veteran Republican incumbent in a GOP-leaning district in 1991 — the year Democrats lost ten Senate seats and 21 Assembly seats.

After sixteen years in the Senate, Adler seems to have no place to go.  He has nearly $200,000 is a federal campaign account he opened in 2003, when he said he would consider an `08 bid for U.S. Senate if Frank Lautenberg did not seek re-election.  But now, Adler knows that won’t happen — if Lautenberg doesn’t run, another Camden County Democrat, Congressman Rob Andrews, will.

Expect Saxton and the NRCC to gloat about that 58%-39% result if Adler enters the race, but they know perfectly well that Adler has built a fine political career for himself since his first ambitious run at Saxton as a 31 year-old in 1990.  Additionally, you’ve got to bet that Adler would like to put that $200K in his Senate campaign account to good use, and if he were to enter the race, he could easily transfer those funds to a House campaign account.  (And he would need every penny, as Saxton is currently sitting on a very fat $1.33 million cash-on-hand.)

While the DCCC’s saber-rattling didn’t produce many retirements in 2006, perhaps with life in the minority and surprise announcements like Deborah Pryce’s, we can expect such campaigns to yield better results.

According to the Buckeye State Blog (which has really been on fire with its House coverage this week), former Republican Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro has agreed to run to succeed retiring Rep. Deborah Pryce in the 15th Congressional District.  Petro, as you may recall, was an unsuccessful candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2006, where he lost to then-Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell by a 56-44% margin.

Quick on their feet, the Ohio Democratic Party released the following press release slamming a Petro candidacy:

News accounts report that Congresswoman Deborah Pryce will announce that she will not run for Congress in Ohio’s 15th Congressional District. So, which Jim Petro will run for Congress?

Is it the Jim Petro who was under FBI Investigation?

Is it the Jim Petro who ignored the Securities and Exchange Commission’s warnings that Ohio Worker’s Compensation investors were being ripped off and let the Noe CoinGate scandal occur right under his nose?

Is it the Jim Petro that the Ohio Civil Rights Commission found violated his staff’s civil rights by not promoting and hiring them based on race?

Is it the Jim Petro who was the Cuyahoga County Commissioner? Note: It is more than a 2 hour drive from Cuyahoga County to central Ohio where the 15th is located.

Is it the Jim Petro who lurched to the right to combat Ken Blackwell in the Republican Primary for Governor?

Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy will have plenty of juicy targets to choose from in a campaign against Petro.  However, the nickel’s worth of free advice that the Swing State Project gave to Kilroy last month still rings true: a strong message of change in Iraq should not be left off the table.

Shocking news from the Columbus Dispatch:

Rep. Deborah Pryce of Upper Arlington has told some of her fellow Republicans she is strongly considering not seeking re-election next year, The Dispatch has learned.

Pryce, 56, who has been a fixture in the U.S. House since her election in 1992, could make an announcement soon about her plans. Republican sources say if she does not run, former Ohio Attorney General James Petro might seek the seat.

Other GOP sources also mention state Sen. Steve Stivers, R-Upper Arlington, an Iraq veteran, as a strong possibility if Pryce drops out.

A senior Republican who spoke only on condition of not being identified said Pryce has concluded it is far too difficult to raise her adopted daughter Mia in Columbus while simultaneously maintaining a five-day schedule in Washington.

“I don’t think anybody can talk her out of it,” the top Republican said.

Pryce could not immediately be reached for comment.

But according to the Buckeye State Blog, Franklin County Republicans are having a difficult time finding a top-tier replacement for Pryce:

The story gets better too. Doug Priese, Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Party, got word of the retirement yesterday from the Congresswoman’s office. In a span of 24 hours the GOP has already had it’s top two potential challengers declare they wouldn’t touch OH-15 with a stick.

The GOP’s dream challenger to replace Pryce is State Senator Jim Stivers. Unfortunately for the Republicans, Stivers turned the Franklin County Republican Party down on the spot yesterday when approached with an offer to run. Since Stivers is up for re-election in the Senate, and approaching an opportunity to serve as Senate President, he views a run for Congress to risky in a district clearly trending Democrat.

Additionally, I’ve heard the GOP approached former Gubernatorial candidate and Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro to jump into the race. However, like Stivers, Petro officially turned the party down for fear of the district and fundraising concerns in a hostile climate.

If true, this is absolutely huge news.  With 2006 candidate and Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy in the race, Democrats would be well-poised to snag this Democratic-trending seat.  At a PVI of R+1.1, this district split its vote 50-50 for Bush and Kerry in 2004, after Bush carried this district by a comfortable eight points in 2000.

If Pryce bails, perhaps the dam will break and similar incumbents facing pressure to keep their seats by the NRCC will take the retirement plunge.

UPDATE: The Hill cites GOP sources claiming that Pryce’s retirement is a done deal:

Rep. Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio) will announce Thursday that she will not run for reelection in 2008, according to sources close to the congresswoman’s office.

Pryce’s office announced it will hold a press conference in her Columbus office on Thursday at 11 a.m. concerning her plans for 2008.

The timing of Pryce’s impending retirement comes largely as a surprise. A former leader of the GOP’s ousted majority, she is in her eighth term but is only 56 years old – much younger than many of the prospective Republican retirees.

Oh, I can’t wait for more surprises.  Some call this the dog days of summer.  I call it Christmas time for House retirement watchers.

UPDATE 2: The Dispatch confirms.  Debby Pryce is out.

According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Blog, Paul Hackett, an Iraq Vet and former Democratic candidate in the 2005 special election for Ohio’s 2nd district, is set to re-enter the political fray today with a characteristically bold splash: flipping the (metaphorical) bird to Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich by endorsing his primary challenger, Rosemary Palmer:

Iraq war veteran and short-time U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hackett tomorrow will announce his support for Rosemary Palmer, who’s trying to move Dennis Kucinich out of Congress.

Palmer, running for the 10th Congressional District nomination, has a tough challenge, but if Hackett were to truly get involved, he might draw some attention for Palmer.

Palmer’s 23-year-old son, Lance Cpl. Edward “Augie” Schroeder II, was killed in Iraq two years ago. A former teacher, Palmer says that Kucinich seems too preoccupied with his quest to become president to represent the district well. […]

Hackett’s involvement in Palmer’s race “adds instant credibility,” says Anthony Fossaceca, Palmer’s campaign manager. It tells voters that she’s serious and that, like Hackett, she’s willing to go against the grain, he says.

“And it means a lot more now coming from Paul,” Fossaceca says, “who doesn’t do many of these.”

Say what you will about Hackett, but he’s never too coy to rock the boat.  Kucinich has not had any problems dispatching primary challengers as of late, but this edition is set to make a bit more noise than what Special K has been used to dealing with.

The list of House Republicans who may retire in 2008 is an expansive one, indeed.  One name that I've heard a substantial amount of buzz surrounding is Rep. Dave Hobson of Ohio's 7th.  Unverified rumors claim that he will likely retire, but one local blogger is already calling it a done deal:

Ohio 7th District Congressman Dave Hobson will not seek re-election to a 10th term in the U.S. Congress.

The much expected retirement of Cong. Hobson has not been formally announced even though State Senator Steve Austria (Hobson’s hand picked successor) is already preparing for a Congressional campaign and at least two Repuiblicans are lining up for Austria’s Ohio State Senate seat.

With a PVI of R+6, Ohio’s 7th has a pronounced Republican lean.  It twice supported Bush by a 14-point margin (56-42 and 57-43, respectively), but much has changed since 2004 in national and state politics since 2004.  I expect a good number of lean-Republican seats to come open in 2008 (Hastert in IL-14, LaHood in IL-18, and Regula in OH-16 for instance).  If Van Hollen can deliver some solid recruits, I suspect that we may be able to pick up a couple.

(H/T: Buckeye State Blog)

According to CQ Politics, former Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert will announce his retirement plans on Friday.

After less than a year as a rank-and-file House member, former Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is expected to call an end to a political career that made him the longest serving Republican Speaker in the history of the House of Representatives.

Several Illinois newspapers, including the Aurora Beacon News and the Chicago Tribune, reported Tuesday that the Illinois Republican has scheduled a Friday announcement on the steps of the Kendall County Courthouse in Yorkville, Ill. While Hastert aides are refusing to discuss what he plans to say, he is expected to announce that he will not run for a 12th term in 2008, according to Republican sources.

The only question that remains is: will Hastert resign this year, or will he serve out the balance of his final term?

Greg Giroux, writing for CQ, takes a look at the district’s numbers and, erm, finds that Republicans are favored to retain this Republican-leaning seat (boldly stated, CQ): 

The expected retirement of former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert from Illinois’ 14th District will serve as a test of Republican strength in predominantly suburban and exurban districts that have long been GOP bailiwicks.

On paper at least, Republicans will be favored to retain the 14th, which includes exurbs west of Chicago and rural communities farther west. President Bush took 55 percent of the vote in the district in 2004, and Hastert won re-election to an 11th term last fall with 59.8 percent of the vote. Still, that was his lowest vote share since he first captured the seat in 1986 with 52 percent of the vote.

The other nugget out of all this from Illinois’ other retiring Representative, Ray Lahood:

LaHood, who recently announced his own plan to retire, said he believed there would be additional retirement announcements from within the House GOP. “I retired because it was the right time to leave. Others will also be leaving, for their own reasons,” he said.

Let the games begin.

(Hat-tip to TheUnknown285.)

Speculation over the fate of former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert has oscillated between rampant retirement rumors and some suggestions that Hastert is actually enjoying his new gig as a backbencher (perhaps he grew tired of being the poster boy for President Bush’s failed policies in the House).  According to the Beacon News, Hastert will announce his re-election plans one way or the other on Friday:

Former Speaker of the House Rep. Dennis Hastert is expected to reveal Friday whether he will run for re-election.

A speech has been announced for 10:30 a.m. Friday in Hastert’s home town of Yorkville at the old Kendall County Courthouse, Hastert staffers confirmed Monday. Staffers were tightlipped about whether the former teacher and wrestling coach who climbed to the pinnacle of Congressional political power would seek a 12th term.

While Democrats have had not exactly flocked to challenge Hastert in elections past, a small swarm of candidates has emerged to make a run at the seat, including physicist Bill Foster, attorney Jotham Stein, and 2006 candidate John Laesch.  Another potential candidate, state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, has formed an exploratory committee in anticipation of a Hastert retirement. State Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia, who earlier considered a run, has bowed out of the race.  (H/T: TXObserver in the comments.)

With a PVI of R+4.8, Hastert’s district certainly leans Republican, but Illinois Democrats have scored wins in territory as red or redder.  Melissa Bean toppled long-time incumbent Phil Crane in 2004 despite George W. Bush carrying her district by 12 points.  In total, there are 25 Democratic incumbents in the House of Representatives who represent districts with a PVI more favorable to Republicans than Illinois’ 14th.

Stay tuned.  (H/T: Atrios.)