Tag: House

Michigan Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer was asked “What makes Gary Peters qualified to face Joe Knollenberg?” in his latest video blog.

Jump the fold to read more. 

Mark is right when he says Gary will be an outstanding member of Congress. He certainly has the experience!

While in the Senate, he served as the ranking Democrat on the Finance, Education, Judiciary, Natural Resources, and Families and Mental Health Committees. – Peters For Congress

While at the lottery Gary not only increased sales by over $600 million, but did it while staying under budget by $13 million. It is this type of fiscal responsibility that will keep our country strong for future generations.

You can see why Joe Knollenberg is so nervous this time. He will be asking all his lobbyists, special interests, and donors to provide the $4 million his finance director thinks they'll need to beat Gary.

Clearly Mark Brewer's kind words and publicity on the Michigan Democratic Party website are a great sign for the Peters campaign. 

(From the diaries with light editing for formatting. A Mark Schauer candidacy would immediately make this race into a knock-down, top tier contest. Schauer has a solid base in the heart of the district and a strong resume as Minority Leader in the State Senate. I hope he tosses his hat into the ring. – promoted by James L.)

State Senator Mark Schauer, a Battle Creek Democrat, was mentioned quite a bit last fall and early this year as a potential candidate for Congress in the 7th District. He's been a fantastic party leader in the legislature, supporting the netroots and working to solve the Michigan budget crisis. His name was even tossed around by supporters of Joe Schwarz in 2006 as a reason not to vote for Tim Walberg, suggesting that Walberg in 2006 would inevitably lead to a Schauer victory in 2008.

Schauer and his staff quashed most speculation this spring, promising to stay on as leader of the Democratic caucus in the Senate until the end of his term in 2010. Most observers– including journalist Jack Lessenberry— thought he would have been a formidable candidate, but Schauer seemed determined to sit this election out.

But all of that might be changing.

For those that don't recall, Michigan's 7th District is currently represented by far-right wing Congressman Tim Walberg. Walberg is one of those conservatives who opposes little things, like taxes and the separation of church and state. He defeated the well-respected moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz (a Republican also from Battle Creek) in a very nasty primary funded mostly by the Club for Growth.

But back to Mark Schauer.  Starting last night, I started hearing rumors that Schauer might be reconsidering his previous decision. Then the subscription-only MIRS News service reported that Schauer would contact Jim Berryman and David Nacht sometime today to let them know whether or not he would “seriously consider” running in 2008. Then the AP picked it up:

    LANSING, Mich. (AP) — State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, D-Battle Creek, may challenge U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg in the 2008 election after brushing off earlier overtures to enter the race.

    Schauer, who had pledged to Senate Democrats to serve out his full four-year term through 2010, said Wednesday he is discussing a bid for Congress with family, colleagues and constituents before making a “final decision.”

    “I would bring the same commonsense, results-oriented approach to this role as I have to my entire career in public service,” Schauer, 45, said in a statement.

    Schauer said it had become “painfully clear that Tim Walberg cares more about what's best for Republican leadership in Washington than what's best for Michigan's 7th district. […]

    Former Rep. Joe Schwarz, R-Battle Creek, said Wednesday he spoke to Schauer earlier in the day and the state senator told him “he was looking at” the congressional race. Schwarz said Schauer did not indicate when he would make a final decision.

    Schwarz, who was defeated by Walberg in last year's Republican primary, said he had not made a decision on whether he would re-seek his old congressional seat.

    Schwarz, a physician, is chairing a task force on health care needs in southeast Michigan and said he would not announce any plans on the congressional race until his task force releases a report in September.

The plot thickens further with Michigan Liberal's lpackard's discovery that the domain schauerforcongress.com has been registered.

I've been following this all day today with e-mails and phone calls to a bunch of different people, and this is what I've got: Schauer has not announced whether or not he'll run, and likely hasn't made a final decision. As is suggested by the article above, we're now in a period where he may be watching to see what kind of support he may have. “Testing the waters,” as it were.

In other words, if you want Mark Schauer to run for Congress, now would be the time to let him know about it.

Adapted from a post at Walberg Watch. (Thanks to Michigan Liberal.)

UPDATE: Apparently, MIRS is reporting that a DCCC poll conducted showed Schauer leading Walberg by three percent, and by eight percent when positives and negatives of each are read.

If the first day of the campaign is any indication, Gary Peters for Congress will make an impact.

• In the Detroit Free Press the DCCC says Knollenberg has “every reason to fear a strong candidacy from Gary Peters”
• Today’s Oakland Press quotes Gary as saying this race will be the “number one in the state”
• The Birmingham Eccentric highlights Gary’s goal to make health care affordable and available
• Crains Detroit quotes Gary saying he will “fight tooth and nail for every Michigan job”
• Talking Points Memo Election Central covered the announcement, highlighting Gary’s experience as a Lt. Commander and SEABEE combat specialist.
• mLIVE quotes Oakland County Democratic Party Chairman Dave Woodward calling Gary the “frontrunner”
• WLNS reminds readers Knollenberg is coming out of his toughest re-election ever
• Richard Owl Mirror’s blog compares Gary to Mr. Smith, and says we need to send him to Washington
• Michigan Class Notes is excited to see a strong challenger in the 9th
• The Detroit News mentions this race is going to be expensive, and that Knollenberg is hoping for a Democratic primary to waste resources
• So of course it is no wonder Gary raised over $2,000 in just one day at ActBlue
• Michigan Liberal,  Daily Kos,  MyDD, and Swing State Project readers all got to see the Peters Announcement

We will continue to introduce Gary to the blogosphere. If you would like to get involved in the campaign, please signup for email alerts at PetersForCongress.com. Show the DCCC that we need to pickup House seats in Michigan!

(Discuss. – promoted by James L.)

Most of the news in the Swing State Project is based around specific races and candidates, but I'd like to get a more general look at the Congressional races. More to the point, I'm trying to look into your expectations, what are you expecting in the 2008 elections? And what would you consider to be a huge win or a huge loss?

So, here are my expectations:

Senate Races

Expecting: (Dems pick up 2-3 seats)

Reason: The environment in the senate already gives the Democrats a huge advantage (only defending 12 compared to the Republicans' 22), in addition the national mood favors the Democrats pretty well overall. The individual races give me a bit more pause, the Democrats have a good advantage in two senate races already (Colorado and New Hampshire) with strong prospects in at least three other states (Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon). Having said that, the Democrats are in trouble in Louisiana, and in a presidential year, I'm having a hard time seeing Mary Landrieu surviving the race in Louisiana if the governors race doesn't turn around. Additionally, the Democrats might have another competitive seat in South Dakota, depending on the condition of Tim Johnson and whether or not Rounds decides to challenge him. The two assumes the Democrats win in both Colorado and New Hampshire and picks up one of the three states with high prospects and Mary Landrieu loses her seat, the three assumes the previous conditions with Landrieu keeping her seat.

Big Win: Dems win 5+ seats

Reason: In addition to the seats mentioned on top, there is still the potential for more competitive seats coming from North Carolina, New Mexico, Virginia, Alaska, and Kentucky. My minimum of five seats assumes a clean sweep of all the competitive seats, assuming how some of these states go, it could end up being a landslide, picking up 6-8 seats in the senate. Keep in mind that I think winning 8 seats is only technically possible, and I'd probably have a heart attack from shock if that happened.

Big Defeat: Dems lose 0-2 seats

Reason: The flip side of the coin has to be the possibility of some Democratic seats being compeitive. I've already covered Louisiana and South Dakota, so I'll also bring into the equation the possibilties of competitive races in Iowa and Arkansas. Huckabee could still challenge Pryor and the possibility is still there that he could lose. The zero assumes either no incumbent party lost seats or the Dems either picked up New Hampshire or Colorado but lost Louisiana, the 2 assumes the Democrats don't win anything and lose in Louisiana and in either Arkansas or South Dakota. Again, keep in mind this is another of the shock scenarios, the chances of this happening are about the same as the chances of the Dems winning 8 or more seats.

I've got to get ready for work, so I'll post what I think for the House a little later. And if you disagree with me, please, I want to know what you think.

Update:

Alright, I’m going to give my outlook for the House, now keep in mind that I’ve actually been concentrating a bit harder on the Senate than the House, so I’m only going to give what I think the general mood is, you House watchers, if you think I’m wrong, please speak up and correct me:

House

Expecting: Dems break even or pick up 1-2 seats

Reason: Ok, the overall national mood still favors the Democrats, and while the Senate is definitely a huge opportunity for the Dems, the House is a very different story. With the purging of a lot of Republicans from blue districts in the Northeast (Connecticut, New Hampshire, and New York) and the fact it’s a presidential year, I don’t really see the Democrats making a repeat of 2006. The Democrats are going to have to defend a bunch of newly acquired seats such as TX-22 and FL-16. The Dems do have the ability to knock off a few more Republicans though, (NM-1 [Heather the Feather] and CT-4, for example). While the DCCC does have a money advantage over the NRCC, it’s not as dramatic as the one between the DSCC and the NRSC.

Big Win: Democrats pick up 6+ seats

Reason: Keeping in mind all everything I’ve mentioned before, the overall mood does favor the Democrats, and with more retirements likely to be on the way from Republicans, the Democrats have the potential to make a few more competitive races in swing districts. Additionally, if the Republicans pick someone like Rudy Giuliani, who would likely hurt conservative turnout in Republican districts, that might be enough to give the Democrats an edge in a few more areas.

Big Loss: Republicans pick up 4+ seats.

Reason: Look, I want it to be perfectly clear, the Republicans won’t pick up the House next year, they just don’t have the resources, will, or stability to do it. Having said that, there are definitely circumstances where the Republicans can pick up a few seats, as I mentioned before, TX-22 and FL-16 are probably going to be difficult to hold on to, not to mention KS-3 and NH-2 (was it 1 or 2 that was the suprise pick up in House?). Additionally, the congressional seat won by John Hall might be in trouble if Ari Fleschier decides to run against him. There are still other districts with really big problems like in Arizona, Georgia, and a few other House seats, but you should keep in mind this is the “nightmare” scenario, one to be prepared for, but not paranoid about either.

The race to fill Republican Butch Otter’s open seat in Idaho’s first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year.  In what is now a campfire legend, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November.  (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)

However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year.  So one might expect that Sali’s high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right?  Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling. 

Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage (“voters”, July 11-13):

Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%

Just dismal.  And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?

Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%

So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant’s name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district’s voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way.  Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.

While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation.  It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.

PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali’s support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.

“A public servant with a record of fiscal discipline, Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Township) today announced he will run for Congress in 2008, pledging to fight outsourcing, help strengthen the economy and resolve the war in Iraq.” It’s official! Days after Joe Knollenberg made the announcement for him, Peters enters the race. It’s no wonder Knollenberg felt the need to attack. Gary has an extensive track record of fighting for progressive issues as a State Senator.

Peters will officially resign from his current position as Michigan’s lottery commissioner on Friday, August 10th. Under Peters, the lottery has come in $13 million under budget while generating record profits. When he was a State Senator, he returned an entire years worth of office expenses back to the state treasury! Gary will bring fiscal responsibility to Congress.

“Knollenberg has allowed the failed Bush agenda to go on while our brave men and women are getting shipped to Iraq and good-paying Michigan jobs are getting outsourced to other countries. -Gary Peters”

Gary gets it. Knollenberg has a terrible record on veteran’s issues, highlighted by the DCCC campaign last July. Peters will fight to protect our soldiers and our jobs. Knollenberg has been a rubber stamp for a failing administration. The choice is clear for 9th district voters.

9th District elected Democrats came out strong in support of Peters. Look at this list of endorsements. Our local leaders are excited to get behind an experienced legislator, who is ready to fight Knollenberg on the campaign trail and represent Oakland County in the People’s House.

The district is ripe for change, and Gary is the candidate to deliver. The Democratic base vote in the 9th district was above 50%. This is a winnable district. Joe Knollenberg is out of touch with 9th district voters on issues such as stem cell research, protecting the middle class, the importance of Social Security, and helping to make college education affordable. Gary Peters will continue his fight for progressive interests?Joe Knollenberg protects Washington special interests.  Let’s send a Lieutenant Commander to Congress to fight for us.

www.PetersForCongress.com

Learn more about Gary at his website, signup to receive email updates, and contribute at ActBlue!

$226,409.87

That’s how much the National Republican Congressional Committee spent in the fall of 2006 to protect Republican incumbent Mark Souder in a district that delivered only 31% of its vote to John Kerry in the last Presidential election.  (The DCCC saved its money for other races.)

In that race, Souder faced off with a Fort Wayne city councilman, Tom Hayhurst, who only had to raise $690K to outspend the incumbent’s war chest of $642K.  Souder eventually went on to win that election, but by a much smaller margin than any Republican has any business winning in the 33rd most Republican congressional district in the nation: 54%-46%.

Souder, who seems set in his sluggish fundraising ways, has found himself with yet another quick-moving Democratic challenger: Michael Montagano.  Montagano, a young (26!) lawyer, outraised Souder by a $106K to $84K margin in the second quarter.  That showing has already inspired comparisons between Souder and another lethargic Republican Indiana of yore: John Hostettler (formerly of the 8th District).  According to Roll Call (subscription required), DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen met with Montagano recently and came away impressed:

Souder’s 3rd district is heavily Republican – it gave President Bush 68 percent of its 2004 presidential vote – but even Republicans privately concede that Souder, who came to Congress in the Republican wave of 1994, had too close of a call last year.

[…]

Democrats think Souder could be 2008’s Hostettler.

“Chairman Van Hollen came away impressed from his meeting with Michael Montagano yesterday and believes this seat could be a potential sleeper race in 2008,” DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said Friday.

With a PVI of R+16.3, Montagano would be serving the fourth-most Republican district in the nation with Democratic representation if elected.  The top three Democrats in that class?  Chet Edwards of Texas, Jim Matheson of Utah, and Gene Taylor of Mississippi.  In other words, if Montagano is to have a shot in a Presidential year, even against a luckluster incumbent, he’s gonna need some mad political skills.  But if Montagano, like Hayhurst before him, could force the NRCC to drop some precious cash to shore up an incumbent in crimson red territory, that will be a victory in and of itself.

Well 7 more districts now have candidates:
CA-52,
GA-09,
MI-09,
OK-05,
TX-26,
VA-11,
WI-05,

But 3 are now back to uncontested:
CA-46, (Brandt is running for the CA Assembly).
FL-21 (Our candidate has quit the party to run as an independent!)
TX-14 (our candidate has switched parties and is running for the GOP!)

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki.
Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD, Daily Kos and Open Left)

321 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 83 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 87
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 3
Districts with rumoured candidates – 29
Districts without any candidates – 83

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-01,
AL-03,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-40,
CA-41,
CA-42,
CA-44,
CA-48,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-10,
FL-13,
FL-15,
FL-24,
GA-09,
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MI-09,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-05,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-23,
NY-25,
NY-26,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-14,
OH-15,
OH-16,
OK-05,
PA-03,
PA-15,
PA-16,
PA-18,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-11,
TX-13,
TX-26,
VA-05,
VA-06,
VA-10,
VA-11,
WA-04,
WA-08,
WV-02,
WI-01,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
IL-16,
IL-19,
SC-04,

3) The following 29 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-02,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-45,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-11,
KY-05,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NC-05,
OK-03,
OK-04,
PA-06,
TN-07,
TX-02,
UT-03,
VA-01,

4) And last but not least the following 83 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-18,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-01,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-14,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
WA-05,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

It is also interesting to note that we have only one race left to fill in Arizona, Idaho, Indiana, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Thats 18 states with a full slate, and 6 states with one race to fill! That is almost half the states full or nearly full 17 months before election day, an impressive feat indeed!

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see candidates in CA-42, TX-11, VA-06, and WI-06; 4 of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

According to the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle, David Nachbar, one of the contenders for the Democratic nomination to take on “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl next year, has withdrawn his candidacy this week.  Nachbar cites workplace demands as the reason for folding his bid, but perhaps he also found that he underestimated the depth and breadth of support for rematch candidate Eric Massa within the 29th district.  For instance, it seems like not a day goes by where Massa's campaign doesn't put out another press release announcing the endorsement of a county or township Democratic committee (see the latest one here).

While Massa got off to a solid start, outraising Kuhl significantly in the second quarter ($158K to $68K) and reporting a higher cash-on-hand total, Nachbar had some deep pockets of his own that he was willing to tap into.  Coupled with New York's September primary, a contested nomination would have been a serious resource drain for the eventual nominee.  New York's 29th will not be one of the easier targets for Democrats in 2008, but Nachbar's termination could help ensure that Massa will make a decent second shot at it.

(H/T: DailyKos diarist ipsos) 

I enjoyed compiling the figures for this diary so much last month, that I’ve decided to turn our tracking of the twenty hottest House challengers on ActBlue.com into a monthly series.

Here’s the August installment:

State	CD	Candidate	Actblue Total	Contributions
CO	2	Jared Polis	$137,304	321
MA	5	Niki Tsongas	$136,852	406
MA	5	Jamie Eldridge	$113,154	694
ME	1	Chellie Pingree	$103,785	247
CA	26	Russ Warner	$74,840	232
IL	10	Dan Seals	$71,073	234
MO	6	Kay Barnes	$69,949	102
NY	29	Eric Massa	$64,507	755
AZ	3	Bob Lord	$59,440	163
TX	10	Dan Grant	$58,220	145
NY	26	Jon Powers	$54,117	288
FL	8	Mike Smith	$49,825	73
CA	4	Charlie Brown	$46,485	990
NM	1	Martin Heinrich	$42,744	205
MD	4	Donna Edwards	$36,828	612
NC	8	Larry Kissell	$32,282	308
CT	4	Jim Himes	$27,759	76
IL	4	Ricardo Muñoz	$25,590	67
IA	4	Selden Spencer	$18,855	123
MT	AL	Bill Kennedy	$17,866	71

Certainly an exciting group of challengers. One guy I’ll be keeping my eye on his rematch candidate Selden Spencer, who raised under $500K in is 2006 challenge to Republican Rep. Tom Latham, which he lost by a 57-43 margin. Let’s see what he can do with an earlier start. (In the second quarter, he raised $88K.)

PS: Anyone wanna help put Charlie Brown over the top to 1000 contributions?