Tag: House

Former Republican Rep. Charlie Bass’ service in Congress can be called many things (“disingenuous” and “Bush-enabling” being my top two), but you've gotta give the Bassmaster some credit where credit is due for some straight-up honesty:

Charlie Bass, who lost to Hodes last year after serving five terms, isn't sounding like a candidate for a rematch.

“Life after Congress is not bad,” said Bass, now executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a Washington-based organization focused on getting moderate Republicans elected.

“I haven't ruled anything out, but, frankly, I think that if the election were held today, the outcome might be worse for me than it was last November. I'm not making any decisions at this point.” (emphasis added)

Couldn’t have said it any better myself, Charles.

(H/T: Dean Barker)

According to Roll Call (subscription required), the NRCC is getting giddy over the candidacy of state Senator Nick Jordan against 5th-term Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore:

House Republicans, long stymied by Rep. Dennis Moore (D) in Kansas’ GOP-leaning 3rd district, think they might have recruited the perfect candidate — state Sen. Nick Jordan (R) — to flip the seat back to the GOP.

In Washington, D.C., last week to participate in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s candidate school, Jordan is described as having the support of both the moderate and conservative wings of the GOP in the Jayhawk State’s 3rd district.

If true, this could prove crucial for a Jordan victory. That’s because Moore first won the suburban eastern Kansas district in 1998 — and has held it since — largely because Republicans have failed to unify behind their nominee in each of the past five elections.

“Both moderates and conservatives are pushing [Jordan] to run,” said a knowledgeable Republican operative based in Kansas. “This is the guy we’ve been waiting for.”

Jordan said in a brief interview late last week that he is “very likely” to run for Congress in 2008 and that he probably would announce his intentions sometime in August. […]

Republicans in D.C. and Kansas claim that Jordan’s position on social issues and his record on economic matters appeal jointly to the conservative and moderate wings of 3rd district Republicans. The two factions have warred with each other in the 3rd district at least since 1998 when Moore defeated Vince Snowbarger (R) for the seat — a split that reflects an intraparty rift plaguing the Kansas GOP statewide since the early 1990s.

Jordan is socially conservative, opposing both abortion rights and embryonic stem-cell research — which makes the conservatives happy. But he also has a lengthy record of championing business and economic development projects — and this makes the moderates happy.

It’s hard to blame Republicans for trying at an R+4.2 seat in a Presidential year, but I’m having a hard time seeing Moore as a particularly vulnerable incumbent, especially after looking at his steadily improving electoral track record:

Year	Moore (%)	Republican (%)
1998	52	48
2000	50	47
2002	50	47
2004	55	43
2006	64	34

With a Presidential year bringing the base to the polls (we assume) and a more credible challenger than novice Chuck Ahner, who Moore beat by 30 points last year, Republicans may be able to hold the incumbent to a level more similar to his 2004 result than his 2006 blow out. Nick Smith may be a good recruit for Tom Cole’s NRCC (assuming he makes his bid final), but he strikes me as three or four cycles too late to catch Moore in a particularly vulnerable position.

Confirming weeks of speculation, Iraq War vet Eric Egland announced today that he will challenge corrupt Rep. John Doolitte in the 2008 Republican primary.  Doolittle’s campaign team, however, is maintaining a “more the merrier” attitude:

Egland is the first to flatly declare for the Republican primary. Auburn City Councilman Mike Holmes also is exploring a primary run for Doolittle’s seat, and he said Monday he is moving closer to entering the race.

Doolittle’s campaign consultant, Richard Temple, said the congressman is not worried, and welcomed the competition.

“In this case, the more candidates the better,” said Temple. He said that because the congressman has a strong base of support, multiple opponents will only divide the disenchanted.

“Neither of them can beat him,” Temple said.

Temple makes a strong point, and 4th district Republicans interested in retaining this seat in the red column would be best served to confine Doolittle to a head-to-head match up.  (Holmes, as you may recall, collected less than 33% in the 2006 primary after spending just over $90,000 on the race.)  Conversely, Blue Majority candidate Charlie Brown’s best shot is if a badly wounded Doolittle crawls out of a three or four-way primary with a barely active pulse… assuming that he hasn’t resigned in disgrace by that point.

With the recent decision of Republican Ray LaHood of Illinois not to seek re-election in 2008, Democrats hoped to put up a strong challenge for this open seat.  With a PVI of R+5.5, such a district would require an especially strong challenger in order to overcome the area's Republican lean.  The DCCC hoped that man would be state Senator John Sullivan, who sought the Democratic nomination in the neighboring 17th district against Phil Hare in 2006 after Rep. Lane Evans' retirement.

According to CQ Politics, after weeks of decision-making, Sullivan has decided to seek re-election for his state Senate seat instead:

Sullivan will instead seek re-election next year to the Illinois Senate, where he has held a seat since 2003. He noted in a statement that he serves in that body as chairman of the Agriculture & Conservation Committee and as Majority Caucus Whip.

“I can better serve my constituents in a leadership position as one of 59 state senators than as a freshman in the U.S. House with its 435 members,” Sullivan said.

  Sullivan would have been a serious candidate for the seat, even though his state Senate district does not take in the 18th District’s population centers in and around Peoria and Springfield.

Clearly a setback for the DCCC, who would like to put as many Republican seats in play as possible.  From my observation, Sullivan was seen as the most obvious choice for this fight in a district where the Democratic bench isn't as well-stocked as in other areas of Illinois.  Could another hero emerge? 

It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
CA-52	Hunter	R	R+9.3	60	Running for President
CO-02	Udall	D	D+8.1	58	Running for Senate
IL-04	Gutierrez	D	D+30.7	54	Retiring
IL-18	LaHood	R	R+5.5	62	Retiring
ME-01	Allen	D	D+6.2	63	Running for Senate

Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.

Potential House Retirements

District	Incumbent	Party	PVI	Age	Notes
AK-AL	Young	R	R+14.3	75	Under investigation
AL-02	Everett	R	R+13.2	72	Speculation/Rumors
AZ-01	Renzi	R	R+2.2	50	Under investigation
CA-04	Doolittle	R	R+10.9	58	Under investigation
CA-24	Gallegly	R	R+4.8	64	Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25	McKeon	R	R+7.1	70	Speculation
CA-41	Lewis	R	R+9.0	74	Under investigation
DE-AL	Castle	R	D+6.5	69	Health issues
FL-10	Young	R	D+1.1	78	Age issues/Speculation
IL-03	Lipinski	D	D+10.3	42	Primary challenge
IL-14	Hastert	R	R+4.8	67	Rumors
IL-16	Manzullo	R	R+4.5	64	Speculation
IN-07	Carson	D	D+8.7	70	Health issues
IA-03	Boswell	D	D+1.4	74	Health issues
IA-04	Latham	R	D+0.4	60	Possible Senate run
IA-05	King	R	R+8.4	59	Possible Senate run
LA-01	Jindal	R	R+18.5	37	Running for Governor
LA-02	Jefferson	D	D+27.8	61	Indicted
LA-06	Baker	R	R+6.5	60	Possible Senate run
MD-01	Gilchrest	R	R+9.8	62	Primary challenge
MD-04	Wynn	D	D+29.8	57	Primary challenge
MD-06	Bartlett	R	R+12.8	82	Age issues
MI-03	Ehlers	R	R+9.0	74	Speculation
NC-09	Myrick	R	R+12.2	67	Speculation
NY-23	McHugh	R	R+0.2	60	Speculation
OH-02	Schmidt	R	R+13.1	56	Primary challenge
OH-07	Hobson	R	R+6.0	56	Rumors
OH-16	Regula	R	R+3.6	84	Age issues/Speculation
TN-09	Cohen	D	D+18.1	59	Primary challenge
TX-04	Hall	R	R+17.1	85	Age issues
VA-01	Davis, JoAnn	R	R+8.9	58	Rumors/Health issues
VA-11	Davis	R	R+0.6	59	Possible Senate run
WY-AL	Cubin	R	R+19.4	61	Speculation

A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.

Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?

By: Jordan Wells and Kevin Hrit – (Disclosure: Jordan worked as Nancy Skinner’s Online Outreach Organizer in 2006. Kevin worked as Nancy Skinner’s Field Director in 2006, and crunched numbers for Practical Political Consulting in Lansing.)

Michigan’s 9th Congressional District will be one of the top targeted races for 2008. The DCCC has already aired ads exposing Knollenberg’s awful record on veterans. Knollenberg is under fire from citizen action groups, and has been constantly bashed in letters to the editor throughout the district. Knollenberg is beatable. He narrowly won the ’06 election with 51% of the vote, and has 15% less money now than he did this time that cycle.

It appears the 9th District has undergone a sudden blue trend. However the Democratic base in the district has been growing steadily for the last eight years. Despite the growing Democratic base, Joe Knollenberg continues to cruise to electoral success versus weak challengers.

Jump below the fold for an extremely detailed analysis of the numbers from the 9th District.

In 2002 David Fink performed 2.21% below the Democratic base, with 39.89% of the vote, despite raising 1.2 million and contributing 1.2 million of his own.  In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, with 39.54% of the vote. In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. The Democratic base in 2006 was 50.49% (in ’02 it was 42.19%, in ’04 46.34%).

Clearly the 9th District is more competitive than the election results make it appear, which is great news given Knollenberg’s low vote totals in 2006. Democratic candidates in the 9th have failed to win over independent voters and even win over all Democratic voters. This has been due to a lack of fundraising, lack of connection with voters in the district, and lack of clear understanding of the 9th district.

Currently the two potential contenders for the 9th District nomination are Nancy Skinner and Gary Peters. Nancy ran for the 9th in 2006. Gary’s last election was 2002 when he ran for Attorney General.

In the 2002 Attorney General race, Gary Peters performed at or above the Democratic base in 72% of 9th district precincts (234 out of 325). This certainly puts the candidate’s performance in perspective. While losing by 4,677 votes in Bloomfield Township, Peters actually performed above base in all 36 precincts of the township. In his former home city of Rochester Hills, he outperformed base by 4.66%, in 30 of 32 precincts.  Despite losing the AG race Peters out performed the Democratic base in 72% of the 9th District. Consider that this is a statewide election, and each candidate did not necessarily concentrate on persuading 9th District voters. Peters was above base in 19 of 22 jurisdictions, and just slightly under base in the other 3 (within 2.2%).

Let’s look at Peters’ 1998 State Senate campaign, where he could campaign locally. In this election Peters performed at or above base in 99% of the precincts (155 of 156 precincts).  It is worth noting that in his run for State Senate in 1994, he won a five way primary with 51% of the votes, despite facing formidable challenges from Democratic contenders in a district stretching from Pontiac down through Southfield.  Then went on to win his first term in the Senate.

In 2004 Steve Reifman performed 6.80% below the Democratic base, taking 39.54% of the vote. These results have negatively effected the perception of our district and promoted the idea that no Democrat could win there.

In 2006 Nancy Skinner performed 4.28% below the Democratic base, with 46.21% of the vote. She only performed over base in 18 precincts out of 319 precincts (over base in 5.64%) and only 1 jurisdiction.

In 2004 Nancy also ran for Senate in Illinois. She lost in the primary (to Barack Obama), and as Kevin can tell you, being a first time candidate is really tough.

In Royal Oak City, where Nancy grew up, she performed 4.00% below base. In Birmingham, where the campaign office was located, where her dad coached high school football and where she lived during the campaign, she still performed 0.38% below base.

Gary Peters strong performances are due to the stances he has taken. He was a leader in the fight to protect Great Lakes water, earning him the Sierra Club's Environmentalist of the Year Award. Peters was the Democratic Caucus Chair in the State Senate, and ranking member on more policy committees than any other Senator. You can read more about Gary's biography at this profile article about him in the Michigan Bar Journal.

Nancy Skinner's support comes from her time on a radio talk show in the district. She promoted sustainable living, and worked on the Chicago Climate Exchange. She won a medal from working with the Clinton administration in 1993 for her efforts in rebuilding flood ravaged communities with sustainable building techniques on the Mississippi river delta. You can read more about Nancy on her bio page from her campaign website.

Neither candidate has filed with the FEC. Nancy Skinner's federal committee from 2006 remains open with $18,000+…although she has not filed any of the required reports for 2007. Gary Peters maintains a State Leadership PAC with $20,000+ (as of July '07) which can not be spent on a federal campaign, although he has been supportive of the State and County Party and candidates.

 

CRITICAL NUMBERS

98 Base 14SD : 61.08% 

98 Peters :.65.48% 

98 Peters Performance v. Base : +4.40

02 Base : 42.19% 

02 Fink : 39.89%

02 Fink Performance v. Base : -2.29%

02 Peters : 45.52%

02 Peters Performance v. Base : +3.33%

04 Base : 46.34%

04 Reifman : 39.54%

04 Reifman Performance v. Base : -6.80%

06 Base : 50.49% 

06 Skinner : 46.21%

06 Skinner Performance v. Base : -4.28%

 

Here are the numbers and facts, please draw your own conclusions.

From the Anchorage Daily News:

Jake Metcalfe, former Anchorage School Board president and former head of the state Democratic Party, announced late Sunday that he plans to run against Don Young in the 2008 congressional election.

“All this stuff has been coming out, there's been a barrage of new information about the corruption and the ethics violations, and I thought, 'You know, somebody's got to run against him,' ” he said.

“I just figured I'd do it.”

Metcalfe, an attorney for IBEW, grew up in Southeast Alaska in a large, well-known Juneau family. He worked previously as a prosecutor in Bethel. He said by cell phone from Washington, D.C., Sunday night that he plans to file the paperwork today.

Metcalfe joins 2006 nominee Diane Benson in the primary for the Democratic nomination.  And I suspect that those two won't have the race to themselves, considering that the DCCC and DSCC have been courting the likes of former state Rep. (and 2006 Lt.-Gov. nominee) Ethan Berkowitz and Anchorage mayor Mark Begich to take on the embattled Young and Senator Ted Stevens (who had his home raided today by the FBI and the IRS, incidentally).  If there are Democrats who ever wanted to move on up in Alaska and aim for statewide federal office, 2008 could very well be their best shot in decades, with corruption investigations heating up against the once-popular incumbents and the Club For Growth making suggestions that it might finance a primary or two in the state.

Metcalfe, for his part, seems to have gotten tired of watching the courted candidates wait as Stevens and Young implode:

Metcalfe said that former state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz and Mayor Mark Begich have also been considering a run against Young. Neither could be reached.

Young has a large campaign war chest and any candidate who runs against him needs to start early raising money and making connections across the state, Metcalfe said.

“People have to quit waiting for other people to make up their minds,” he said.

“The Democrats are in the majority, and we've got a back-bencher for an incumbent,” he said. “He's no longer powerful. …We need someone that's in the majority.”

With Republicans mired in scandal upon scandal, Berkowitz and Begich would be utterly insane not to run in 2008.  Perhaps Metcalfe's entry in the race will bump up the timeline for one of them.

Weeks after failing in his bid to become the next President of Bradley University, Republican Rep. Ray LaHood of Illinois' 18th District has announced tonight that he will retire after seven terms in the House, according to the Associated Press.

LaHood's retirement will create an open seat in the 2008 elections, and provide Democrats an opportunity (if only a tough one) of picking up another seat in the House.  With a PVI of R+5.5, the 18th District supported Bush by a 54-44 margin in 2000, and by a wider 58-42 margin in 2004.  It would certainly be a tough district for any Democrat to win next year, but House Democrats have proven to be more able campaigners in red territory than Republicans are in bluer turf.  Indeed, seven of last year's 30 Democratic pick-ups in the House came in even redder districts than LaHood's.

So who might run for the Democrats?  DailyKos diarist MrLiberal suggests State Senator John Sullivan, a credible campaigner in the district, or Kevin Lyons, State's Attorney for Peoria County.

Keep your eyes peeled on this race.  It may be a tough nut to crack, but the NRCC can ill-afford too many more retirements like this one. 

With confirmed Democratic candidates in more than a third of the GOP House districts (317,) it's time to see how we are going state by state. Below the fold to see the good news as well as some potential concerns. And go take a look at the fantastic 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

Alabama – 5/7 filled
The 2nd and 6th both need candidates. The 6th is one of ten districts we did not contest in 2006 and it wasn’t contested in 2004 either. There is a rumoured candidate in the 2nd but ominous silence from the 6th.
AL-02,
AL-06,

Alaska – FULL SLATE

Arizona – 7/8 filled 
The only district left to fill is the sixth currently represented by Jeff Flake. Interestingly this is one of only ten districts that the Democratic party did not contest in 2006 and nor did we contest it in 2004.

Surely with months to go the Arizona Democratic party can find someone to fill the breach.

64% Bush District in 2004!
AZ-06,

Arkansas – FULL SLATE

California – 44/53 filled
Well 9 races is a lot to find candidates for but this is California and all of the currently uncontested districts had candidates in 2006.

The districts are all over the state and I guess at this stage we should watch this space.
CA-02,
CA-03,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-45,
CA-49,
CA-52,

Colorado – 5/7 filled
The 5th and 6th both need candidates with both 2006 candidates unlikely to run again. Despite the focus on the open senate race I expect the Colorado Dems to find candidates for both these districts so as to boost turnout for the senate race.
CO-05,
CO-06,

Connecticut – FULL SLATE

Delaware – 0/1 filled
Ah Delaware at large. A most frustrating district. One of only 8 districts that Kerry won in 04 that are held by Republican incumbents. With such a deep bench surely we can find a top tier candidate. Castle is apparently quite popular which is why top tier candidates have given this race a miss in the last few elections.
There are rumours that Castle might retire but I suspect not.
53% Kerry district in 04.

DE-AL,

Florida – 17/25 filled
8 Races to fill. It is a little early to be too concerned, particularly given the attention being paid to the 13th. None the less it would be good to see a few of these fill soon.

The 12th is one of ten districts uncontested in 2006.
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-06,
FL-07,
FL-12,
FL-14,
FL-18,
FL-25,

Georgia – 6/13 filled
Not a happy scene. We do not have a declared candidate in a single GOP district. This is not good and even this far out a source for concern, particularly given our poor result in the special election in the 10th.
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-10,
GA-11,

Hawaii – FULL SLATE

Idaho – 1/2 filled
Well Idaho 2 is unlikely to be even remotely competitive unless it becomes an open race, which is unlikely also.
Sure we will find a candidate here in the time remaining.
68% Bush district in 2004.
ID-02,

Illinois – 12/19 filled
Illinois too is of some concern. 7 unfilled races, no rumoured candidates. watch this space.
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,

Indiana – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and certainly a candidate will step up.
IN-05,

Iowa – FULL SLATE

Kansas – 2/4 filled
Early days yet and we only need to fill two races. Wait and see.
KS-01,
KS-04,

Kentucky – 2/6 filled
With a competitive gubernatorial race coming in November it is no great surprise that 4/5 of the GOP incumbents do not have declared opponents. Wait until after November.
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
KY-05,

Louisiana – 3/7 filled
See Kentucky – however the precarious state of the Louisiana Democrats does not bode well. Also the 6th is one of the uncontested 10 districts from 2006.
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,

Maine – FULL SLATE

Maryland – FULL SLATE

Massachusetts – FULL SLATE

Michigan – 7/15 filled
It is more than a little concerning that more than half of the house districts in Michigan do not have declared Democratic candidates and tha only one GOP incumbent is currently facing a Democratic candidate. What is going on in Michigan? Why are they lagging so far behind the other states?

MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-09,
MI-10,
MI-11,

Minnesota – 6/8 filled
Ho hum two races to fill shouldn’t be a problem. Be good to get someone running in the 3rd it is only a 51% Bush 2004 district.

MN-02,
MN-03,

Mississippi – 2/4 filled
Only 2 districts to fill which I assume democrats will turn their minds to filling after this years elections. Note that the 3rd was not contested by us in 2006 or 2004.
MS-01,
MS-03,

Missouri – 6/9 filled
2 GOP districts filled and 3 to go. With the focus on the gubernatorial contest in 08 expect the Missouri Dems to find candidates for all 3 districts.
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,

Montana – FULL SLATE

Nebraska – 1/3 filled
2 districts to fill with Kleeb likely to run again in the 3rd. No problems here at this stage.
NE-01,
NE-03,

Nevada – 2/3 filled
Only 1 district to fill should happen soon hopefully.
NV-02,

New Hampshire – FULL SLATE

New Jersey – 10/13
We are doing surprisingly well in New Jersey this cycle. Months to go and state legislative elections in november and we still have filled half of the GOP districts with challengers. The other 3 will no doubt fill after november.
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,

New Mexico – FULL SLATE

New York – 27/29 filled
Only 2 more to fill here both in and around NYC. expect announcements soon.
NY-03,
NY-13,

North Carolina – 10/13
Another state where we have only a handful of races to fill.
The 5th will almost certainly have a candidate soon and the other two should fill in due course also.
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,

North Dakota – FULL SLATE

Ohio – 13/18 filled
hhhhmmmm 5 races without candidates that’s not good. But if you look at the quality of the candidates that the Ohio Dems are fielding in the other 6 GOP incumbents then perhaps a little more time is required. Watch this space.
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,

Oklahoma – 1/5 filled
None of the GOP incumbents opposed at this stage not a good sign at all. Oklahoma being as red as it is this is one to be concerned about IMHO.
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,

Oregon – 4/5 filled
The only question is who will step up in the 2nd a 61% bush 2004 district, particularly if the rumours about Waldens retirement are true.
OR-02,

Pennsylvania – 16/19 filled
3 races to fill here; 1 with rumoured candidates. The PA Dems will fill these 3 races easily.
PA-05,
PA-06,
PA-19,
Rhode Island – FULL SLATE

South Carolina – 2/6 filled
None of the GOP incumbents have declared opponents – this is a worry. The state of the SC Dems is probably worse than everywhere else bar Georgia and Louisiana. Hopefully candidates will step up.
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,

South Dakota – FULL SLATE

Tennessee – 5/9 filled
Another southern state with all GOP incumbents currently unopposed. *sigh* This one too could be a problem. Watch this space.
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TN-07,

Texas – 19/32 filled
Well 13 unfilled races says it all. Texas is a perennial concern for house wonks such as myself, largely because it sends more house repubs to congress than any other state (19). Texas also has a very early filing deadline so this is to be watched. On the upside there was only one unopposed district in 2006 and that has allready got a Dem candidate. Expect to hear more about this state later in the year.
TX-01,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-07,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,

Utah – 1/3 filled
Well it comes as no shock that we have unfilled races in Utah however there are only two GOP incumbents without declared opponenets so we will wait and see.

Vermont – FULL SLATE

Virginia – 6/11 filled
Virginia is a little slow out of the blocks. Of concern is the 4th which we did not contest in 2006 or 2004. To be fair however there is both state house and senate elections this november as well as the potential open senate race. Wait and see at this point. On the upside the 6th will be contested for the first time since 2002.

Washington – 8/9 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
WA-05,

West Virginia – FULL SLATE

Wisconsin – 7/8 filled
Only the 5th left to fill and that should happen.
57% Bush 2004 district.
W1-05,

Wyoming – FULL SLATE

So in the main things are looking great on the house candidate front. However a number of states are of concern; Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas. On the upside however 17 states have a full slate and 5 only 1 race to fill.

Onwards to 435

Some voices have expressed frustration that the Democratic field to take on Republican Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois' Democratic-leaning 10th District is fractured between rematch-seeker Dan Seals and attorney and former Clinton aide Jay Footlik.  To the extent that Seals and Footlik both been outraised by a tidy sum in the second quarter, money-splitting is certainly a concern, but not an overwhelming one.  After all, fundraising is never a zero-sum game.

Is there a chance that a primary could be a good thing?  If Dan Seals is the nominee (and he has a strong chance, given the goodwill and name recognition that his longshot-turned-competitive 2006 campaign generated), he could emerge an even stronger candidate in the general. 

How do I figure?  In 2006, Seals ran a very competent campaign, hitting Kirk hard on his ties to Bush and the Republican Congress.  The one area of improvement for Seals lies in his Iraq message.  It's not so much a question of substance (Seals has the correct stance: “responsible withdrawal”), but volume.  This Chicago-area district is an expensive media market for any congressional candidate to run in, and Seals therefore had to condense many different themes into the few television spots he did run (see here and here).  As we have argued before, 2008 rematch-seekers should be prepared to reorient their campaign message with a strong stance on Iraq redeployment as the central theme, especially if they spent much of the 2006 campaign hitting on peripherals like prescription drugs, the cost of gasoline, congressional pay raises, et cetera.  Granted, I'm not saying that campaigning on these issues should be eliminated–far from it.  It's just that these should be side dishes to the main course of Iraq.

And I think Dan Seals gets it, especially when I read pieces like this one from Roll Call:

Seals Seeks 'Anti-War' Label in 10th District

Dan Seals recently staked his claim to the “anti-war” label now that he faces a credible challenge for the Democratic nod in the Prairie State's 10th district.

Seals, whose long-shot bid to unseat Rep. Mark Kirk (R) almost was successful last year, technically bashed Kirk for his vote against immediately redeploying troops from Iraq earlier this month. But clearly his shot was intended to also strike Jay Footlik (D), the business consultant who only recently decamped Washington, D.C., to compete with Seals.

“I am the only candidate who has opposed the war from the start and the only one who unequivocally supports a responsible timeline for withdraw,” Seals boasted in a news release.

If Footlik's challenge is inspiring Seals to stake his territory on the left side of the Iraq debate, this primary could actually be doing a favor for Seals in the general election–should he make it that far.