Tag: 2008 Elections

Another 2 weeks passes and another 7 races with confirmed Democratic candidates. At this rate we will be up to 400 by christmas!

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

295 races filled! This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 62 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 62
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 2
Districts with rumoured candidates – 33
Districts without any candidates – 105

1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41,
CA-48,
CO-04,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MD-06,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-01,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-01,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-13,
VA-05,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 2 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
OH-14,

3) The following 33 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CA-50,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-10,
FL-12,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,
WV-02,

4) And last but not least the following 106 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-14,
FL-18,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NY-23,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. It would be great to see some more candidates bob up in Texas as it is the first state for filings to close (I think).

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see a candidate in VA-06, one of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

On national maps North Carolina is often colored red.  We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976.  But that might be changing.

In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican.  But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.

PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling.  This poll was done with 606 voters.  The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.

This poll (PDF) has some incredibly interesting results within it.  The question that will get the most media attention is the matchup question between Elizabeth Dole and Roy Cooper.  In that race, Dole is under 50 percent, and has a lead of 46 to 36.  That means that so far Dole has polled at 45 and 44 against 2 Democratic Congressman, 40 percent against our governor, and 46 percent against our Attorney General.

She is in a ton of trouble.

Her approval rating is plus 4, 45% to 41%.  President Bush’s numbers are also ugly, with a negative 11 rating.

The poll also asked if people would be more or less likely to vote Democratic based upon specific nominees.  Surprisingly for me, Hillary does a lot better on this question that I would have expected.  The details though are not all that surprising.  Obama would give huge motivation to black voters, and Hillary is hated by Republicans.  Nothing really shocking.

This poll also contained some very interesting crosstabs.  For instance, we are home to both Ft Bragg and Camp Lejeune, among other bases.  Both of these massive installations are within the 910 area code.  In that area code, Bush’s approval rating is 47 to 45 (plus 2).  On the generic ballot, a Democratic Presidential candidate leads 46 to 42.  The best part is that those numbers are before we start showing ads like this for the third Senator from Virginia.

In addition to this poll, a new poll by Conservative, Non Partisan Republican think tank Civitas shows even worse results for Bush and national Republicans.  I take all of their results with a grain of salt, but their poll showed Bush with a 39 percent approval rating, with 57 percent disapproving (43% strongly disapprove).  Even more telling is their question about the surge strategy:

Do you think the President’s new strategy in Iraq along with the troop surge is:
Improving the Situation 19%
Not making much difference 34%
Making things worse 36%

That is right.  In “Red” North Carolina, the most military friendly state in the country, 70% of voters think the surge is either useless or counterproductive.

Dole has been an unapologetic supporter of Bush.  In fact, in February there was an article in the Charlotte Observer talking about how she was taking a stand separate from most of her fellow NC Republicans to support the surge loudly in public.  Sadly, I cant find that article without paying big bucks for it.

Add on top of all of these polls an article written by Stuart Rothenberg prior to these results about Texas and North Carolina.

In contrast, Democrats have won the past four gubernatorial elections in North Carolina, and the party last won a Senate seat in 1998. While Republicans hold all of the most high-profile statewide offices in Texas, Democrats hold the top offices in North Carolina. And while Republicans hold both chambers of the Texas state Legislature, Democrats have solid majorities in both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature.
:::
On the other hand, Rep. Brad Miller and North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper reportedly are considering a challenge to Dole, and Tar Heel State Democrats are in a far stronger position to recruit a candidate against the Republican Senator.
:::
Dole isn’t much more vulnerable until Democrats get a formidable candidate in the race, but if and when they do, the state’s dynamics, at the very least, offer them a scenario for success.

North Carolina, therefore, bears watching.

In light of all the polling that we have seen in this race, I would say Rothenberg’s analysis is actually pessimistic.  But, he is obviously correct in saying that we need a top tier challenger.  I personally want to see Brad Miller take up the banner.  But no matter who runs she is vulnerable.

For more info on this race, and on a Brad candidacy please visit this website.

I got some press for the Draft Brad website yesterday.  It is only online for now, but its a start.

Given that Republican Representative Jean Schmidt of Ohio has accomplished the remarkable feat of barely winning two successive House elections in a district that delivered nearly two thirds of its vote to George W. Bush in 2004, it should probably not come as a surprise that Schmidt is on the receiving end of her second primary challenge in as many years.  As you may recall, she beat back a 2006 primary challenge from former Congressman Bob McEwen by a 5% margin, despite only receiving a plurality of the vote.  That primary proved to be an ominous warning against her abilities to navigate the political environment that November.

This time, the man itching for a fight is former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich (yes, of that Heimlich family, it would seem).  Heimlich served for eight years on the Cincinnati City Council and one term on the Hamilton County commission until his defeat by Democrat and former Cincinnati mayoral candidate David Pepper last November.  It’s an okay resume, but his experience is decidedly more city-focused than the largely suburban/rural nature of the 2nd district–something that could conceivably hurt him in a head-to-head with Schmidt.

Still, Heimlich says he means business:

Heimlich said in an e-mail message to supporters that he has filed the necessary paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission and that his campaign treasury, which will be overseen by Bill Luchsinger, contains $120,000.

“Our party is yearning for a return to the principles established by Abraham Lincoln, the leadership and dignity demonstrated by Ronald Reagan and the common sense conservative values shared by all Republicans,” Heimlich said.

If that’s the case, Mr. Heimlich’s $120K puts him in a good position against Schmidt, whose lackadaisical fundraising pace only left her with $17,000 cash-on-hand (and $20K raised) after the first quarter of 2007.

Essentially, if Heimlich, or any other halfway stable Republican beats Schmidt in the primary, this district is most likely off the playing field for Democrats in 2008.  Any Republican who hasn’t spent their time advocating for the importation of nuclear waste into their congressional district, brushing off the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown”, or being scolded by the state’s Elections Commission for displaying a “reckless disregard for the truth” is going to have a much smoother ride than Schmidt in this solidly Republican district.  Our best case scenario would be for Heimlich and possibly one or two other credible Republicans to hammer Schmidt mercilessly for a year, leading her to another underwhelming plurality victory, and letting Vic Wulsin or the eventual Democratic nominee take over from there.

(Hat tip: Buckeye State Blog)

Race Tracker: OH-02

Rep. Tom Allen of Maine’s 1st District has made it official: he’s filed his papers to challenge Republican Senator Susan Collins.  Check out his video message and his new website here.

From a press statement:

Portland, Maine—Maine Congressman Tom Allen today filed A Statement of Candidacy form with the Secretary of the Senate to become a candidate for the United States Senate in 2008.  His campaign simultaneously launched a new website (http://www.tomallen.org) that includes a digital video statement from Congressman Allen about today’s filing.  In the statement, Allen says that he will conduct an announcement tour of the state when Congress adjourns for Memorial Day.  He said he is looking forward to a substantive debate on the issues and that he believes voters will see a clear contrast between his priorities and record and those of the incumbent. 

“Maine people tell me that they want our involvement in the Iraq War- the worst foreign policy mistake in our nation’s history -to end,” Congressman Allen says in the video announcement.  “From the beginning, when President Bush rushed to invade Iraq, Susan Collins has supported his misguided policy.  I fought to stop it.  She voted for the Iraq War.  I voted against it.  Susan Collins continues to vote with the Republicans against a timetable to end the War in Iraq.  I voted for a responsible change of course to bring our troops safely home.”

Republicans will likely point to Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s overwhelming victory last year in a Democratic wave year, but, simply put: Collins is no Snowe, and Allen is certainly no Jean Hay Bright.  On top of that, Snowe’s continued capitulation to the out-of-control Republican leadership in the U.S. Senate is not going to win her any accolades in her home state, especially as more and more local media outlets are turning against the Bush/Collins position on Iraq.

Race Tracker: ME-Sen

If Brad Miller runs for the Senate, he may have some company.

Many “Democrats in North Carolina and Washington, D.C., are beginning to zero in on state Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) as a particularly strong pick” to challenge Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and “are urging him to enter the race,” according to Roll Call.

Other possibilities include Rep. Brad Miller, Gov. Mike Easley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Hugh Shelton, state Sen. Kay Hagan and state Rep. Grier Martin — “though Easley is unlikely to run.”

This may be the best option as I do not know how easy or difficult it will be to hold Miller’s seat should he be nominated against Dole. Anyone from North Carolina want to comment.

More and more candidates continue to pour out of the woodwork for 2008 House races. 11 have confirmed or announced in the last 2 weeks alone!

Once again go and take a look at the 
2008 Race Tracker Wiki. & DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

288 races filled! Eleven in the last 2 weeks alone. This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters.

But we also have 55 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So here is where we are at (GOP Districts):
Districts with confirmed candidates – 55
Districts with unconfirmed candidates – 4
Districts with rumoured candidates – 37
Districts without any candidates – 106

That 106 number looks disturbingly large but let me tell you that we are just humming along. I think that there is every chance that half of the GOP districts will have candidates by July 4th.

So without further ado here is the list:
1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AL-04,
AZ-01,
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-24,
CA-26,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-08,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-15,
FL-21,
FL-24,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
LA-01,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-03,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
OH-16,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-10,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,
WY-AL,

2) The following 4 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
MD-06,
NJ-05,
OH-01,
OH-14,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AK-AL,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CA-50,
CO-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
IN-04,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
NE-03,
NV-02,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
NC-05,
OK-04,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-05,
VA-11,
WV-02,

4) And last but not least the following 106 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-18,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NY-23,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-03,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,

Praise to those states where we already have a full slate of house candidates – Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. It would be great to see some more candidates bob up in Texas as it is the first state for filings to close (I think).

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

It is also great to see a candidate in VA-06, one of 10 districts we did not contest in 2006!

We are well on track to beat the 425 races we contested in 2006.

*** Tips, rumours and what not in the comments please.***

From DailyKos diarist VolvoDrivingLiberal:

Alabama Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries Ron Sparks, who is seriously mulling a challenge to Bush rubber stamp Jeff Sessions in 2008, will make his second appearance on Daily Kos today. Ron will post at approximately 6-630PM EDT this evening, and will be available for Q&A after posting.

This will be the Commissioner’s second liveblogging session on DailyKos.  You can see his first diary here.  I’d keep an eye out on Mr. Sparks’ profile in order to catch him live.  Unfortunately, I won’t be able to join in tonight, but I hope that you drop by and leave a question or comment for the man who just might paint Alabama a bluer shade in 2008.

Race Tracker: AL-Sen

UPDATE: Ron’s diary is here.

The conventional wisdom has been that Republican Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico, an incumbent with 34 years of service in the Senate, is an institution in New Mexican political culture, and that it would take more than an inappropriate phone call or two to a U.S. Attorney to undo the reservoir of goodwill that the Senator has earned over his long tenure.

Well, think again.  SurveyUSA has come out with its second round of approval tracking since Pajama Pete’s role in the U.S. Attorney scandal broke, and the trendlines don’t look good for the old man:

Democrats should not wait any longer for a hypothetical Domenici retirement: the time to attack is now.  A prolonged, sustained third-party independent expenditure campaign hitting with the dual prongs of ethics and Iraq, where Domenici marches in lock-step with President Bush, could set the stage for a barnburner of a Senate race, whether the Senator retires or not.  Will a strong candidate step up to pile on the pressure?  (Rep. Tom Udall, anyone?)

Race Tracker: NM-Sen

(H/T: The Guru)

Update: New Mexico FBIHOP has more.

The DCCC is not sitting around waiting for Rick Renzi to resign. According to the Washington Post, they have established a special election fund for the eventual nominee.

Readying for a special election, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has opened a special election fund to collect cash that would benefit the party’s eventual nominee. If a vacancy occurs, the Democratic special election nominee would benefit from an immediate cash infusion from this fund. The DCCC began raising money yesterday for the effort.

“Rick Renzi’s seat was a target before his family business was raided by the FBI. It’s even more so now. If and when there is special election, the Democratic candidate will have the support needed to win,” said Jennifer Crider, a DCCC spokeswoman.

I’ll wait until I see a resignation. But if and when it happens, I will be ready to do my part.

The plethora of opportunities for House Democratic challengers in Ohio next year is a topic that both CQ Politics and MyDD’s Jon Singer looked at recently. Between both sources, we can identify no fewer than seven potential offensive targets for Democrats this cycle. The following chart lists each possible targeted district by its PVI, the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2006, and the Kerry/Bush and Gore/Bush margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively:

CD	Incumbent	PVI	’06 Margin	Kerry ’04	Bush ’04	Gore ’00	Bush ’00
OH-01	Chabot	R+0.5	4	49	51	46	51
OH-02	Schmidt	R+13.1	1	36	64	34	63
OH-03	Turner	R+2.9	17	46	54	45	52
OH-12	Tiberi	R+0.7	15	49	51	46	52
OH-14	LaTourette	R+2.2	18	47	53	44	52
OH-15	Pryce	R+1.1	<1	50	50	44	52
OH-16	Regula	R+3.6	17	46	54	42	53

With the exception of the 3rd, these districts have been trending more Democratic on the Presidential level since 2000. Despite shrewd gerrymandering by Ohio Republicans, with the right challengers, each of these seats could come into play.

• OH-01: The DCCC thinks it has their man to finish what John Cranley started in his challenge to Republican Steve Chabot in 2006. State Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, “a Democrat with a history of winning over Republican voters”, has thrown his hat in the ring. On the one hand, Driehaus has a suburban political base that can help wear down Chabot in his strongest territories. On the other hand, Driehaus may lack the broader name recognition of Cranley, who was an at-large councilor in Cincinnati. On balance, though, Driehaus’ resume looks good, and he should prove to be another credible challenger.
• OH-02: No doubt about it; Jean Schmidt is a political time bomb set to go off every six months or so with another bizarre comment about bringing nuclear waste into her district or deriding the outrage over the Walter Reed scandal as “overblown” criticism. Jean Schmidt could very well be the worst politician of the decade, which is the only reason why Team Blue has a shot at winning this R+13 district. 2006 candidate Vic Wulsin is game for a rematch, and while it doesn’t seem to take much to incite Schmidt into inflicting another wound on herself, the Democratic nominee in this district will have to deal with running against the Presidential headwind of a solidly Republican district. A tough challenge, to be sure, but Schmidt is destined to underperform, especially if she gets another primary challenge.
• OH-03: This Dayton-based district was represented by Democrat Tony P. Hall from 1978-2002, but has since been occupied by Republican Mike Turner. Whatever hope Democrats had in sparking an upset last year unfortunately went down in flames after the Democratic nominee, Stephanie Studebaker, was arrested in a domestic dispute just three months before election day. Prosecutor Dick Chema was the last-minute replacement, and perhaps unsurprisingly fell short by roughly 17 points. Given that this district’s Republican lean is less than heavy, a well-organized challenger with a good profile could perhaps do to Turner what Democrat Jason Altmire did to “rising star” Republican Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania last year, who held a similarly Republican-leaning seat with a long history of voting for Congressional Democrats.
• OH-12: Republican Pat Tiberi convincingly repelled Swing State Project hero and near-octogenarian Bob Shamansky by a 15-point margin last November, but he did have to empty his $3 million war chest to do it. Tiberi shouldn’t be able to escape 2008 with a free pass, especially in a trending Democratic district like this one.
• OH-14: Democrats have an eager challenger to Republican Steve LaTourette: William O’Neill, a judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals in Ohio. O’Neill’s recent claim to fame was winning 41% of the vote for the Ohio Supreme Court on a $1 budget in 2006, in principled opposition to the mixing of campaign contributions and judicial service. However, O’Neill claims he won’t be nearly as stingy in his campaign against LaTourette. He intends to raise $1 million for the race, and will resign from the bench on June 15th and has already been in contact with the DCCC, according to comments attributed to him on the Buckeye State Blog. LaTourette, despite some family values hypocrisy and a district trending more Democratic on the Presidential level, has yet to face a top-shelf challenge this decade (no, Capri Cafaro doesn’t count). If Judge O’Neill can bring the noize, this might be another unexpected defense for Republicans next year.
• OH-15: After watching the disappointments of Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell in their four-year campaigns last cycle, I’ve become rather skeptical of the viability of most House rematches, barring special circumstances like scandal (e.g. Pombo/McNerney), and major strategic reorientation (e.g. Hodes/Bass, Boyda/Ryun). But Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy ran a strong challenge against Deborah Pryce last year, which is why I’m somewhat ambivalent about the brewing primary battle between her and fellow Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Pryce could be on unstable ground in 2008, but we’ll need to sort out our side of the fence first.
• OH-16: At age 82, Republican Ralph Regula is ripe for retirement. But even if this seat doesn’t open up, Democrats plan on making an aggressive challenge after the no-profile, no-money Democrat Thomas Shaw scored a surprising 41.6% against the 34-year incumbent. According to the Buckeye State Blog, State Senator John Boccieri, an officer in the Air Force Reserve and a veteran of four tours in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, is strongly considering a bid for this seat. With a strong electoral track record and an excellent profile, Boccieri could prove to be a top-tier Democratic recruitment in the next cycle.

Seven districts, seven pressure points. Democrats probably won’t win all of them, or even many of them, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be wise to push on all of these targets hard to keep Congressional Republicans focused on putting out as many brushfires as possible.

Race Tracker: Ohio