MN-Sen, Coleman retracts comments

http://www.startribune.com/pol…

Earlier Friday, during an energy-related visit to Wright County, Coleman expressed second thoughts about a statement he made the morning after the Nov. 4 election.

Asked whether he would concede the race if the Canvassing Board certified Franken as the winner — as Coleman had suggested that Franken should do that post-election morning — the senator noted that at the time his 700-plus-vote lead over Franken was more substantial and that he hadn’t slept in 36 hours. Now, he said, “I don’t think I’d have made the same statement.”

Hilarious.

It’s Day 4 and apparently Coleman’s lead is down to 115 with 64% counted. There are over 1600 questioned ballots (pretty evenly distributed amongst Coleman and Franken), so that’s what it is going to come down to. Also, since the precincts counted have been redder than the actual results, we most likely have more than the 56 ballots that you could extrapolate from the data (it’s really hard to extrapolate because the of issue of questioned ballots).

Some of the questioned ballots seem to be frivolous and will almost certainly be decided quickly:

Coleman officials taped 51 ballots challenged by Franken officials on a wall and podium and labeled them “Franken’s Frivolous Follies.” Most the ballots were from Meeker County and marked with an X rather than a filled-in oval.



For their part, Franken officials showed a series of ballots challenged by the Coleman camp that showed a vote for Republican presidential candidate John McCain and either a vote for Franken or no one for senator. “Now, that’s silly,” Elias said.

Since the number of questioned ballots are nearly the same, and it looks the results might close around Coleman+50, it’s going to come down to who is making the less frivolous challenges.  

MN-Sen: Recount Day 5–Coleman up 210 now

The latest from the Star-Tribune with 77% of the votes recounted:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

Coleman is now up 210 votes, and Coleman is challenging 124 more ballots than Franken 1625 to 1501.

Ramsey County is 55% complete with a Franken gain of 40.  Even with all of the questionable Coleman challenges, I doubt Franken can overtake

Coleman in the December review.  There’s to just too much of a gap for Nate Silver’s projection to come through.

And most of the counties that haven’t reported anything yet are smaller and mostly rural–and Coleman won most of them.

So is it over for Al?

MN-Sen: You Be the Judge

Minnesota Public Radio has some great images of contested ballots currently being contested in the MN-Sen recount. Here are a few:



Should it count for Al?



So the TV miniseries “V” was actually a documentary?



Franken’s volunteer said the voter was “underlining Al.”

That kind of grade-A bullshit makes me proud.

Anyhow, you can click through the link to register your opinion as to how each of these ballots should be counted (if at all). Pretty fascinating stuff.

MN-Sen: Coleman leads by 195; Coleman challenges more ballots

The latest:

http://ww2.startribune.com/new…

With 13% of precincts reporting, and 8% of the vote recounted, Norm Coleman is now ahead by 195 votes–a net gain of 20 for Al Franken.  Norm Coleman’s camp is challenging more ballots: 105 vs. 89 from Franken’s camp.

Note that challenged ballots are set aside and not included in the recount totals.

Somewhat encouraging, don’t you think?

MN-Sen, AK-Sen: Franken, Begich favorites on Intrade

At Intrade right now, Al Franken is at 57.5 and Mark Begich is at 66.8.

While the trading volumes aren’t that high, it appears the bettors think they have a really good chance win when the counting is finally completed.  Nate Silver rates a Franken a “slight favorite” to win the recount (Franken is 206 votes behind).

So can we net another Senate seat?

MN-Sen: Getting Tighter

Last night, Hans Cole-Man was leading Al Franken by 477 votes. Of course, for the dickface that is Norm Coleman, that margin was good enough to ask Al Franken to waive the mandatory recount requirement and just call it day right there.

But the Minnesota Secretary of State has been updating its final results tally during the day, and Cole-Man’s lead keeps getting smaller:

   9:15 AM  

   Coleman: 1,211,520

   Franken: 1,211,077

   10:15 AM  

   Coleman: 1,211,525

   Franken: 1,211,088

   1:20 PM  

   Coleman: 1,211,527

   Franken: 1,211,190

And right now?

   Coleman: 1,211,542

   Franken: 1,211,306

236 votes. I think we’ll wait for all the ballots to be properly counted before we declare your victory, Norm. You dickface.

Follow the Undecided Races [UPDATED x2]

Here are some handy links for those of you following the still undecided races for Congress and the Electoral College.

[UPDATE1: Added CA-04]

[UPDATE2: Added CA-44 and AK-AL.  Added current margins]

AK-Sen [Mark Begich (D) vs. Ted Stevens (R)]:

Margin: Stevens +3,257 11/7 3:41 PM EDT

http://www.elections.alaska.go…


[Charlie Brown (D) vs. Tom McClintock (R)]:

Margin: McClintock +709 11/7 3:27 PM EDT

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns…


CA-44 [Bill Hedrick (D) vs. Ken Calvert (R)]:

Margin: Calvert +5,264 11/7 3:28 PM EDT

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/Returns…


GA-Sen [Jim Martin (D) vs. Saxby Chambliss (R)]:

Margin: Chambliss .2% below 50% 11/7 3:33 PM EDT

http://sos.georgia.gov/electio…


MD-01 [Frank Kratovil (D) vs. Andy Harris (R)]:

Margin: Kratovil +2,003 11/7 3:25 PM EDT

http://www.elections.state.md….


MN-Sen [Al Franken (D) vs. Norm Coleman (R)]:

Margin: Coleman +239 11/7 3:24 PM EDT

http://electionresults.sos.sta…


MO-Pres:

Margin: McCAin +5,859 11/7 3:39 PM EDT

http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrmaps/…


NE-02-Pres:

Margin: McCain +569 11/7 3:26 PM EDT

http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/200…


OH-15: [Mary Jo Kilroy (D) vs. Steve Stivers (R)]:

Margin: Stivers +146 11/7 3:21 PM EDT

http://vote.sos.state.oh.us/pl…


VA-05 [Tom Periello (D) vs. Virgil Goode (R)]:

Margin: Periello +745 11/7 3:18 PM EDT

https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virg…


WA-08 [Darcy Burner (D) vs. Dave Reichart (R)]:

Margin: Reichard +5,332 11/7 3:22 PM EDT

http://vote.wa.gov/Elections/W…

Overtime

A roundup of races that haven’t yet been decided:

AK-Sen: Will this race be finalized before Ted Stevens is carted off to the big house? Answer: Yes. Will it be over before the Senate has a chance to boot his sorry ass? Maybe not. While Unca Ted has a 3,300-vote lead, some 76,000 ballots remain to be counted. Supposedly, they need to be counted by Nov. 14th, but the “target date” for certification is not until Nov. 25th (PDF). And then, who knows – maybe we’ll have a recount.

P.S. More here from Mark Begich’s brother Tom.

CA-04: Conservative Icon™ Tom McClintock has a 451-vote lead with 100% of precincts counted. Absentees and provisional ballots need to be counted. But check this out:

If no candidate is more than ½ of 1 percentage point ahead in the semiofficial Election Day results, county election officials will automatically begin partial manual audits. After the counties deliver their totals to the secretary of state in December the candidates will have the option to ask for a recount. (Emphasis added.)

We could be waiting a long time on this one.

GA-Sen: This race will likely go to a run-off between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. A run-off can’t formally be declared until the state certifies the election results next week, and outstanding votes could possibly tip the race to Chambliss. Nonetheless, both sides are in campaign mode. If there is a run-off, it will be held Dec. 2nd.

LA-04: This seat will also feature a run-off between Dem Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming. The date for that face-off is Dec. 6th.

MD-01: Dem Frank Kratovil is sitting on a 915-vote lead. But some 25,000 absentee ballots need to be counted. Results get certified Nov. 14th – not too bad, compared to some other states.

MN-Sen: An automatic recount seems certain here. Dickface Norm Coleman leads by a mind-boggling 475 votes out of 2.9 million cast. (Shades of WA-Gov 2004?) Oh, and here’s why I’m calling him a dickface. State law provides for an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5%. Yet this is what he’s said:

“Yesterday the voters spoke. We prevailed,” Coleman said Wednesday at a news conference. He noted Franken could opt to waive the recount.

“It’s up to him whether such a step is worth the tax dollars it will take to conduct,” Coleman said, telling reporters he would “step back” if he were in Franken’s position. Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said the recount would cost 3 cents per ballot, or almost $90,000.

What a chiseler – ninety-fucking-thousand dollars. That’s like one wealthy-donor-funded Nieman Marcus shopping spree for this douchenozzle. Anyhow, the same article says that a recount won’t begin until mid-November and could take “weeks.” Lawyers, ten-hut!

OH-15: As noted below, GOPer Steve “Steve” Stivers is ahead of Mary Jo Kilroy by just 321 votes. We may get final results in ten days, or maybe longer. If the final margin is under 0.5%, then there will be an automatic recount. We had one of those last time in this very same race – it took until mid-December to complete.

VA-05: Dem Tom Perriello is clinging to a 31-vote lead over incumbent Virgil Goode. Absentees need to be counted. This race will surely go to a recount. However, VA law does not provide for automatic recounts, and a candidate cannot request one until after the official canvas is complete. That isn’t until Nov. 24th, so sit tight.

WA-08: Good idea: Let’s allow everyone in Washington state to vote by mail! Bad idea: Let’s make the rule that you have to postmark your ballot by election day. In neighboring Oregon (the vote-by-mail pioneer), ballots sensibly have to be received by election day. But Washington has decided to do things the annoying way, so it’ll be a while before we get final results here – election officials say it’ll take a week to count all the ballots. (Though I don’t know if there is a drop-dead date by which ballots must be received.)

Anyhow, in the meantime, we know that GOPer Dave Reichert has about a 1,900-vote lead over Darcy Burner. The good news is that in 2006, Reichert won by 14.83% in Pierce County and 0.15% in King County. This time so far, he’s ahead by just 12.22% in Pierce and is behind 1.62% in King, which has 80% of the district’s population. My sense is that Burner probably has to start doing a little bit better in King to pull this one off.

UPDATE: Skywaker9 says that properly postmarked ballots have to be received within a week in WA.

LATE UPDATE (James): In the shocker race in California’s 44th District, where unheralded Dem challenger Bill Hedrick is trailing GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert by 4600 votes, neither side has declared victory yet.

Election Eve: The 2008 Senate races

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

MN-Sen, MN-03, MN-06: Republicans Pull Ahead in New SUSA Polls

SurveyUSA (10/30-11/1, likely voters, 10/16-18 in parens):

Al Franken (DFL): 39 (39)

Norm Coleman (R-inc): 44 (41)

Dean Barkley (I): 16 (18)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/26-27 in parens):

Ashwin Madia (D): 41 (44)

Erik Paulsen (R-inc): 46 (45)

David Dillon (IP): 10 (n/a)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parens):

Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL): 45 (47)

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 46 (44)

Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4%)

SurveyUSA has had some of the kindest numbers for Republicans this cycle in Minnesota, and their latest statewide polling is no exception — Obama only leads McCain by 49-46 here. The Pollster.com composite has Obama leading McCain by 13 points. Either all the other pollsters are wildly wrong, or SUSA has some serious issues with their Minnesota methodology. I’m leaning towards the latter.

One thing in particular is worth noting: the kids just can’t enough of the GOP. Paulsen leads Madia by 46-37 among voters between the ages of 18 and 34, and Bachmann leads Tinklenberg by 49-39 in this age bracket. (In the statewide sample, they break by 56-40 for Obama and 44-37 for Franken.) We’ve seen this phenomenon fairly regularly in SUSA’s Minnesota polling.

Of all these numbers, the 6th CD top lines do seem the most believable — it’s perhaps not hard to imagine Bachmann’s Hardball backlash fading a bit in this R+5 district, but SUSA’s overall Republican bias in Minnesota leaves me skeptical of this entire package.