Tag: Barack Obama

The following is a review of Oregon’s primary and a preview of Oregon’s fall elections now that the primary results (with the exception of Ballot Measure 53) are certified.  Crossposted from Daily Kos (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/16/121742/983/269/536725).

The Oregon Primary is nearly all in the books, so I thought it was appropriate to offer a final review of it and preview the fall campaigns.  I posted a more detailed preview a few weeks ago here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/5/12544/25866/676/530200.

The major source for my numbers is the SOS’s election results page: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/goToElectionResults.do?actionId=viewLoad&mode=view.

The Oregon Primary, by the numbers:

Total Number of Votes Cast: 1,170,553, or 58.04%

Turnout in the 2006 Primary: 38.58%.

Democratic Turnout: 75.66% (a new record for an Oregon primary, smashing the previous record of 71.3% set during the 1968 Presidential Primary).

Number of Votes for Barack Obama: 375,000.

Number of Votes for Hillary Clinton: 260,000

Number of Votes for John McSame: 286,000.

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Hillary: 800 votes (Coos County).

Biggest margin of victory in any county for Obama: 53,000 votes (Multnomah County).

Jeff Merkley’s Margin of Victory over Steve Novick: 16,000.

Number of undervotes in the US Senate Primary: 90,000, or well above Merkley’s margin of victory.  By my estimate, Novick would have netted 3-5,000 or so more votes in Multnomah County alone had everyone cast ballots, assuming his margin of 52-40% had held.

Approximate cost per vote for Mike Erickson in the CD 5 Republican Primary (through the end of April only so the number is going to be higher than this): $23.

Approximate cost per vote for Kurt Schrader in the CD 5 Democratic Primary (through the end of April only): $1.70.

Closest Race: Ballot Measure 53, the “original certification” puts the margin at 450 votes out of 978,000 cast, or .06%.  It is currently being recounted and results will be known by 6/24.

Undervotes in this race: 192,000, or more than 425 times the margin.

Enough fun with numbers, now for a quickie Oregon General Election Preview:

Race-Rating Key:

Tossup-Less than 3% margin.

Lean-3 to 10% margin.

Likely-11 to 20% margin.

Safe-Over 20% margin.

When discussing a race I list the incumbent, or failing that the incumbent party, first.  

Candidates are indicated by the following symbols:

Inc-Incumbent.

Int-Interim Incumbent, someone who was appointed to fill out a term.  Oregon law allows the political party that controls a seat to basically appoint a replacement in case of resignation and so it is not uncommon for state legislators to resign so their successor can run as an incumbent.  Appointments are valid until the start of the next legislative session in a year following a general election.  Therefore, those appointees who have two years left on their term following an election must face a special election for those two years.   For example, Brad Avakian (D) resigned his State Senate seat and was replaced by Suzanne Bonamici (also D).  Since Avakian was not up for re-election until 2010, Bonamici will face a special election for the last two years of Avakian’s term this fall.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D).

Summary: The latest polling shows Obama with a solid lead in the 10% range.  Expect him to win by this much or more.  Barr might hurt McCain here because many of the urban Rs are libertarians who aren’t particularly fond of him.

Outlook: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D).

Summary: The latest poll shows Smith with a 9% lead but under 50%.  Merkley will definitely benefit from Obama’s strength here.  For now, his biggest weakness is most certainly his cash disadvantage but its nothing he can’t overcome.

Outlook: Leans Smith.

Labor Commissioner (Nonpartisan) (2-year interim):

Brad Avakian (int) is facing only token opposition, namely this nut, who likes to put curses on his opponents: http://www.getenergized.com/vote.html.  

Outlook: Safe Avakian.

Attorney General:

John Kroger (D) is unopposed and even won the OR R’s nomination by write-in.

State Treasurer:

Candidates: Ben Westlund (D) vs. Allen Alley (R).

Summary: Against someone else Alley might have a chance, but Westlund has friends on both sides of the aisle.  This one is going to be a rout.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Secretary of State

Candidates: Kate Brown (D) vs. Rick Dancer (R).

Summary: Brown is going to kick Dancer’s ass, period.  Dancer has no real base to speak of and has received only a lukewarm reception from Oregon Rs.  This is an important race this year, obviously, since the next SOS will help with redistricting.

Outlook: Likely to Safe Brown.

Congressional Races:

District 1 (Wu-D)-Likely to Safe Wu.

District 2 (Walden-R)-Likely to Safe Walden.

District 3 (Blumenauer-D)-Safe Blumenauer.

District 4 (DeFazio-D) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Sen. Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman (and hypocrite) Mike Erickson (R).

Summary: Schrader is a well known and respected legislator in this district and his wife is the current chair of the Clackamas County Commission.  Erickson, on the other hand, lost the endorsements of both Oregon Right to Life and the Oregon Farm Bureau, two groups without which no Republican can really hope to win.  I think he has enough cash to keep this race within 10% but not to win.

Outlook: Leans Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate:

In brief:

Current Composition: 18 D, 11 R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18 D, 12 R (1 D to R (Westlund), 1 I to D (Gordly).

Races by Rating:

Safe: 7D, 5R.

Lean/Likely Hold: 2R, 1D.

Lean Takeover: 1D (Ben Westlund’s Seat in Central Oregon looks likely to flip to the Rs.  Put it this way, if they can’t win that seat, the Oregon Rs are really really in horrible shape.

Oregon House:

In brief:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 23 R, 5 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Races by Rating:

Safe/Likely: 25D, 10R.

Lean Hold: 6D, 13R.

Tossup Districts: 5 (all Rs, specifically: Berger (R-inc, Independence/Monmouth), Wingard (R-open, Wilsonville), Bruun (R-inc, West Linn, Kennemmer (R-open, Canby) and Lindland (R-open, Corbett).

Lean Takeover: 1R (Minnis’s old seat, now as an open seat, should flip to the Ds).

Let me know what you think.

In every ranking of the Senate races, the open seat in Virginia always comes out on top of the heap in terms of those seats most likely to change hands. Former Gov. Mark Warner (D) practically walks on water, and maintains a consistently large lead over his opponent, former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R), as they compete for the seat currently held by retiring Republican Sen. John Warner (no relation to Mark). Beneath the confident chorus declaring Mark Warner's lead, however, there has been a faint hum of discordant worry, as Warner's name has been tossed about as a potential VP for Barack Obama. If Warner were taken out of the Senate race, our hold on that seat would be much, much more precarious, as there is no Democrat with the popularity and stature statewide to assure us of victory.

Well, I am pleased to report that we can all breathe a sigh of relief.  At the State Democratic Convention in Richmond today, Mark Warner officially ruled out running for Vice President, stating that he is “110%” committed to winning the Senate seat.  

That is not only good news for us this year; it also means that Democrats who have great potential but need time to build their statewide support, such as State Sen. Creigh Deeds, Delegate Brian Moran, and former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, can save up their energies for the Gubernatorial election next year, rather than worry about having to jump into the Senate race in Warner's absence.

UPDATE:  The Virginia State Democratic Convention took place in Hampton Roads, not Richmond.  (The Richmond Times-Dispatch article I cited above did not mention as much– h/t Johnny Longtorso).

There’s going to be a healthy amount of turnover in the Senate; even if the Democrats don’t pick up any seats in 2008 (OK, OK, you can stop laughing now), there will still be at least five new faces because of the retirements of Warner, Allard, Domenici, Hagel, and Craig. However, there’s also going to be at least a sixth new face in the Senate, because, barring something really weird happening, either Barack Obama or John McCain is going to be the next President in January, opening up one more seat to be filled by appointment until 2010 (the next general election, but also when Obama and McCain’s terms would end anyway). Unlike the rest of the Senate races, that’s one race we can’t handicap, because we have no idea who the candidates are, and there’s going to be only one voter: either Rod Blagojevich or Janet Napolitano.

This is in the news today because Robert Novak is alleging that Nancy Pelosi has been talking up Rahm Emanuel as the replacement senator. (This being Novak, the safe response might be to assume the exact opposite of what he’s saying. Just consider it a conversation starter.) He described Pelosi as “enthusiastic about Emanuel’s elevation to the Senate.” (Although she might be most enthusiastic about getting one-half of the Hoyer/Emanuel tag-team off her back.)

It seems unlikely to me that Blagojevich would pick Emanuel, though, because Emanuel doesn’t help Blagojevich with either of his competing needs: the pressure to appoint another African-American so that number of black senators doesn’t drop back down to 0, and the desire to move his strongest intra-party competition to Washington and out of his hair. (It also might seem a demotion for Emanuel, who is at the #4 slot in the House as Conference chair, and given his age, a likely candidate for Speaker in the 2020s.)

Probably the most frequently mentioned African-American contender for the position is Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Jackson is young (41), he’s progressive (near the top of the House, with a Progressive Punch score of about 99), he’s been an effective Obama surrogate, he’d leave behind as safely-Democratic a House seat as can be imagined, and he has name recognition.

Other mentioned African-American contenders include Rep. Bobby Rush (who’s been in IL-01 for many years and is 62), Sec. of State Jesse White (a well-liked longtime fixture in Illinois politics, but 76 years old), State Senate President Emil Jones (who’s a key Blagojevich ally in the legislature, but who’s 72), and State Senator James Claybourne (who’s only 44, but unlike these other contenders, not a Chicagoan (he’s from Belleville, next to E. St. Louis) – and with Dick Durbin already senator, a second Downstate senator is unlikely). One other possibility I saw mentioned was giving Carol Mosely-Braun her old seat back, although given her inability to hold the seat in the first place, that doesn’t seem likely.

The other camp consists of people Blagojevich might like to deport from Illinois by promoting them: Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Comptroller Dan Hynes. It’s unclear whether Blagojevich intends to run for a third term in 2010 (he’s eligible to do so, although given his ethical problems and low approval ratings, it seems he’s likely to head for the exits at that point), but if he does, he’s likely to face primary opposition from one or both of them. And even if he doesn’t run, these two have oversight of his activities and have been constant thorns in his side (and, with one of them in Washington, could then be replaced with one of his own appointees).

Whether or not Blagojevich is an obstacle, either Madigan or Hynes is likely to be the next governor of Illinois. Madigan is 41; Hynes is 39. They’re both well-connected to Illinois machine politics (Madigan’s dad is state house speaker Michael Madigan; Hynes’s dad is former Cook County assessor Thomas Hynes.) One consideration is that Hynes has shown more desire to go to Washington rather than aiming for governor; Hynes ran for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2004, finishing second to Obama in the primary.

Finally, there are several other names who get mentioned but don’t fit into either category: Rep. Jan Schakowsky from IL-09 (she’s also one of the most progressive members of the House and wields a fair amount of leadership clout there, but she’s 64 and has some ethical baggage associated with fraud charges against her husband Robert Creamer), and Illinois Veterans Affairs Dept. Director Tammy Duckworth of IL-06 fame (she brings diversity and Iraq War vet status to the table, but has never actually won an election before). And it can’t be discounted entirely that Blagojevich might appoint himself, since a Senate seat would give him a new career without term limits… although he’d face the same electoral liabilities in 2010 facing Senate re-election as if he were running again for governor.

Turning to Arizona, some of you might be licking your chops, anticipating another Democratic senator, appointed by Janet Napolitano, as the consolation prize in the event of a McCain victory, but that’s not the case. Arizona is one of several states (along with Alaska, Hawaii, Utah, and Wyoming) where the appointed interim senator must be of the same party as the departing senator.

This becomes an interesting strategic decision for Napolitano, though: does she take the easy way out and appoint the Republican who’s at the top of the queue? That would most likely be Jan Brewer, who is Secretary of State and, since Arizona has no Lt. Governor, the state’s #2 person. However, it could be one of the current representatives, most likely John Shadegg, who has more seniority and a higher profile than Trent Franks or Jeff Flake.

Does she appoint the Republican who, ideologically, is likely to suck the least (moderate ex-Rep. Jim Kolbe, who was in AZ-08 for many years, comes to mind), who would be vulnerable to a right-wing primary effort but difficult in a general election?

Or does she try to game the system by appointing the Republican who would provide two years of dislikable right-wing insanity and then an easy opponent in the 2010 general election (when, not coincidentally, Napolitano herself would be term-limited and looking for a new job)? That could be ex-Rep. and professional loudmouth J.D. Hayworth, or, for maximum comedic effect, former State Rep. Randy Graf. (It still probably wouldn’t include current Rep. Rick Renzi, who’s likely to consider 2009 a good year if it involves staying out of prison.)

Related posts:

Whom Might Blagojevich Appoint? (from August 2007)

Because it sure sounds that way to me. From Action 3 News Omaha:

Esch is hoping an Obama surge here will help him but Terry’s ready to fight, with help from an all new team, what Terry calls “The Obama-Terry voter.” Terry says they are, “people who want the right kind of change.”

Esch told me today he’d like to meet the Obama-Terry voters. According to Esch he, “can’t imagine what they look like.”

Note: Despite his apparent confusion, Lee Terry is not a superdelegate.

(H/T: Dave Sund)

Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!

I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.

Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield.  The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd.  Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated.  Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.

Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.

On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event.  One note from the blogger:  You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph.  It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.

The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.

I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.

Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

This is off-topic from down-ballot races, but I felt compelled to post; the Democratic presidential primary debate in Philadelphia was an embarrassment. Not to our party, mind you, nor to either of our candidates. Rather, it was an embarrassment for the media, and for the entire profession of journalism. The economy is tanking. The war in Iraq continues on as an endless, unmitigated disaster. Next to no one can afford health care. Yet, what questions did these oh-so-esteemed debate moderators throw at Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama? Questions fed to them by the likes of Sean Hannity about Obama's acquaintanceship with a former 60's radical, who is neither a campaign advisor nor a close friend of the senator's.  Questions about whether Clinton believes Obama can win. Questions about Obama's reluctance to wear a flag pin. A flag pin?!?!?!?!  The Bush administration has our country on the ropes and all these media bobbleheads can talk about is a flag pin!?!?!?!?  It's no wonder winning is such an uphill battle for our party; with such idiocy so rampant, I'm amazed that even half the country votes our way!

All the more reason for us to press onward and win these down-ballot seats, where the media spotlight doesn't linger long enough to turn the proceedings into a complete circus.  Progressivism truly has to start from the ground up; in this info-tainment age, it's the only chance we've got!

At a pro-war rally in our nation's capitol yesterday, hosted by the right-wing group Vets for Freedom, congressional candidate David Bellavia made a major faux pas in his introductory statements before John McCain took the podium. “Rest assured that people like Senator McCain will be the goal and the men that my two young boys will emulate an admire. You can have your Tiger Woods. We have Senator McCain!” Bellavia bellowed, implicitly referring to Barack Obama, eliciting a chorus of “ooooh”'s from the mostly white crowd.  He later referred to John McCain as “the real audacity of hope.” All hail the mighty Republicans– the party of racial insensitivity!

If this were just some average citizen venting venom and casting condescension, it would not be worthy of notice.  But this guy is running for Congress in the 26th District of New York State.  The fact that the GOP firmly stands behind him as he rattles off this incendiary rhetoric– McCain made no reference to Bellavia's statements in his own speech, which directly followed– shows what a disgusting operation the GOP truly is. 

Unfortunately, the mainstream media has largely ignored the incident– Keith Olbermann commented on it on “Countdown,” and the issue was visited by Chris Matthews on “Hardball,” but it hasn't made headlines in a big way.  Hopefully, it will at least catch the eyes of voters in the Buffalo area, and in neighboring upstate districts.  NY-26 looks to be an easy win for us this year, as Jon Powers is a strong candidate; I just hope this incident at least has a ripple effect in the region, if not the nation.

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week.  I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference.   I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago.   I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening.   Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.  

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts.  As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”.  I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”.  All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College.  Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.  

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce.   This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat.   Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate.  Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following.  Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy.   It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign.  It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday.  I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM.  I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning.  The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets.  I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation.  I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello.  We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM.  Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate.  Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district.  The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements.  I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet.  Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign.  And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening.  A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown.  It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days.  The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life.  Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign.  April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known.  Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

Last Monday I launched the Obamajority to give Barack Obama a strong progressive Congress that will enact his bold agenda. I started it out with three canidates, Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. I also asked for suggestions for who to endorse next.

The canidate that received the most support by far was Tom Perriello. I had already heard about his impressive run for Congress and so I am exited to announce that Tom is the latest canidate to be added to the Obamajority. So go and give him some change for change. In this essay I take a look at Tom and his campaign to bring much needed leadership to Virgina’s 5th Congressional District.

First let’s take a look at the current representative for the Virgina’s 5th Congressional District. His name is Virgil Goode, Jr. I’ve known about Goode for a little bit over a year because he is a national prominent bigot. On December 7th Goode sent this letter out to a constituent. Take a look at that bigotry.

You see that “Muslim Representative from Minnesota” is Keith Ellison the great representative elected to my neighboring district. That is a perfect example of the hate and fear that is too powerful today. Many times people have attempted to defeat Goode but again and again they have lost. But this time we have a chance to change that.

Why? Because we have a great canidate running. Tom Perriello. Tom was called to serve at a early age.

After receiving his law degree from Yale University, Tom accepted an assignment working to end atrocities in the West African countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone, which had suffered long civil wars fueled by blood diamonds. Tom’s work with child soldiers, amputees, and local pro-democracy groups in Sierra Leone played a significant role in the peace and reconciliation process that ended twelve years of violence in that country.

Tom then became Special Advisor and spokesperson for the International Prosecutor during the showdown that forced Liberian dictator Charles Taylor from power without firing a shot. After this success, Tom served as a national security analyst for the Century Foundation. He has worked inside Darfur and twice in Afghanistan.

Since 2004 he has been a leader in building a faith-based movement dedicated to working toward the common good instead of spewing hate.

Since 2004, Tom has helped to launch a political and social movement in this country that is credited with shifting the national debate about America’s moral priorities. He helped found FaithfulAmerica.org and Catholics in Alliance for the Common Good, which bring together faith communities to fight for children’s health care, supporting a higher minimum wage, environmental stewardship, and responsible solutions in Iraq. Inspired by the prophetic vision of Dr. King, Wilberforce, and Micah, Tom believes that America must reverse the erosion of our commitment to the common good and restore our understanding that our nation rises or falls together.

Tom also helped found Avaaz.org a great group that I am a part of. It tackles some of the toughest issues of our day by working with it’s millions of members from every country in the world.

Tom sat down for a great interview with Lowell of the great Virgina blog Raising Kaine. In it he explains why he is running, how he thinks he can win, his strengths and passions. Let’s look at some highlights from that interview.

First of all the big question. Why? Why run for Congress?

Like so many in my generation, I felt called from an early age to devote my life to community service, because it felt so much more real than trying to change things through government. For over a decade, I have felt inspired to work on economic fairness in our communities and on ending atrocities from inside Darfur and Sierra Leone.  

But I could only work in a broken system for so long before I began to understand how important it was to fix the system itself. In Darfur and West Africa, I saw how much of a difference a single Congressperson could make if s/he were willing to speak out and hold the Administration and State Department accountable. And the last few elections have made it clear how important it is for Democrats to reclaim the values debate and restore America’s commitment to justice and the common good.

I believe we stand at a unique point in history. Our challenges are large enough that our only pragmatism is the idealism to think big and expand our sense of what’s possible. I am running because I believe that politics should be seen as community service by other means. It can, and should, be a place to make people’s lives better.  

And how will he win in this traditionally Republican district?

We are going to win because we have a stronger movement on our side and better ideas for how to secure our country, our jobs, and our environment. Beating Rep. Goode will not be easy, but all the pieces are coming together:

1) Energy and Resources – We tripled Rep. Goode in fourth quarter fundraising, and raised more money inside Virginia in four months than he did all year. When we are outpacing an incumbent from the Appropriations Committee, you know that people are hungry for a new generation of leadership. Also the DCCC has put our race “in play,” and if we hit our fundraising target this quarter, we will move into the top tier of their targeted races.  

2) Grassroots – Our campaign has already logged over 1300 volunteer hours, and we are working hard to build the largest and most sophisticated grassroots network this district has ever seen. We are investing heavily in field, already have offices in Franklin County and Charlottesville, and will have an office in Danville by the end of this quarter. In a district the size of New Jersey, this race will be won on the ground.

3) Blue-mentum – Like much of America, our district is a swing district that is now trending blue. The wildly popular Mark Warner is on the ticket, Gov. Kaine is tirelessly devoted to building the party, and Obama just got more primary votes in the Fifth than all the Republicans combined. Meanwhile, Rep. Goode has gone from being a populist maverick to marching lockstep with President Bush and out of step with our independent district.  

As for being a “faith-based progressive,” I can tell you that voters respond to authenticity. My faith is a big part of who I am and why I’ve dedicated my life to justice, and most voters just want to know what I am all about. It also provides a common experience and language that resonates with voters in my district, especially in areas where Democrats have struggled in the past.    

And finally his answer on one of the most pressing issues of our day. Climate change.  

We need to commit to independence from fossil fuels within a generation, and that will require major investments, a substantial shift in incentives, and a culture change as consumers. A revenue-neutral tax shift is one way to do this, but so are cap-and-trade systems that have worked to address problems such as acid rain.  

As for the target, I most often hear from experts that we must draw the line at no more than a 2-degree Celsius temperature increase. Our goal must be set not by what seems politically possible but what will actually produce the end result we need.  

That brings me to a excellent series that Tom wrote for TPMCafe’s Table for One. You can read it all here (under latest posts) but I want to focus on what I think is the most important one. It is entitled “Conviction Politics… in Practice.” In it Tom breaks from the notion that only DLC-poll driven campaigns can win. Instead he shows that conviction politics both makes it more likely for him to be elected and will also make him more effective if he is elected. I strongly recomend you read it all but here is part of it.

While some strategists focus on positioning candidates on issue after issue, I believe most voters focus more on whether the candidate integrity and character on the whole, demonstrated by the conviction to take a stand. These lines from Toby Keith probably strike pretty close to how many people, including me, feel about this:

“I’m a man of my convictions. Call me wrong. Call me right.

But I bring my better angels, to every fight.

You may not like where I’m going. But you sure know where I stand.

Hate me if you want to, love me if you can.”

For the rest of the week, I will be talking about my struggle to apply these simple principles to the issues of the day (Iraq War, culture war) and my experience putting conviction politics into practice. The successes of conviction candidates in 2006 inspired me to run for Congress. I am still very early in the process, but am hopeful that this campaign will be part of building on those lessons for a better democracy.

The more I learn about Tom the more exited I am about this campaign. I hope you will take the time to read his great interview with Raising Kaine, teacherken’s excellent case for him and Tom’s postings on TPM. Hopefully then you will be as exited by Tom’s campaign as I am.

Electing Barack Obama isn’t enough to bring real change. We will also need to send a strong message to Congress that more of the same won’t cut it. Electing someone like Tom would do just that. Tom wouldn’t just be another vote. He would be someone who lead by example. He will use his power as 1 of 435 to do good in the world not get sweet deals from lobbyists. He will lead by conviction and indeed he already is leading. He helped develop the Responsible Plan to End the War in Iraq and appeared in this video promoting it:

If you want that kind of leadership. If you want to send a strong message that conviction politics is the right kind of politics then consider making a donation to Tom via the Obamajority page. Tom has set a goal of raising $500,000 in this quarter and he is very close to reaching that. If he does this will become a top-tier race nationally. He is running a grassroots campaign and we have a good shot at replacing one of the worst congressmen with one of the best. Right now is a critical time in the campaign though so donate and together we can bring about some real change. But only it you help make it.

Donate to Tom Perriello and together we will build a Obamajority.

We need to restore the founding American ethic that we are better off when we are in this together. Since the original thirteen colonies joined together as the United States, through Civil War and the Great Depression, we have risen or fallen according to this simple rule: America thrives when we are united in a common purpose for the common good.- Tom Perriello

P.S. We are always open to adding new canidates. Keep the suggestions coming to obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com. Thanks!

It’s been a very busy week for the campaign with many highlights:

Monday March 24: I attended the Voices of Central PA dinner in State College.  It was a very nice event and I got the chance to speak with the truly progressive minded people who support Voices.  The questions were tough but fair and I really enjoyed the Indian food on the buffet at the India Pavilion restaurant where the event was held.  The food was a little on the spicy side but was very good.

Tuesday March 25: I spent the late afternoon and evening getting signs out to people.  You always get the chance to speak with your supporters while delivering signs and the feedback was good.  I did get home in time to catch American Idol with Kelly and Amanda.  Not as important as the Obama / Clinton race but Kelly, Amanda and I seem to be pulling for David Cook and Brooke White.

Wednesday March 26: All 12 candidates were on hand for the candidate forum sponsored by the DuBois Chamber of Commerce.  Getting the chance to hear the other 11 candidates, I feel very confident of the message our campaign is spreading.  We recognize the problems of 2008 and we are offering solutions for 2008 and beyond.

Sadly, many of the other candidates keep offering solutions from the 1980’s.  Perhaps most troublesome from several of the candidates are calls for the return to and expansion of the use of fossil fuels.  I will continue to stress throughout this campaign as long as I am part of it that we MUST invest in cleaner, domestically produced alternative fuels.  It will help our economy and our national security.

Thursday March 27: First, I was interviewed on C-Net, the local cable channel in State College.  The interview will run in the State College cable market several times before the April 22nd election.  Then, at the invite of Raymond Snyder, I traveled to Lewistown for the appearance of former President Bill Clinton.  Prior to the public being admitted to the Lewistown High School gymnasium, I had the opportunity to walk the line waiting to get into the event.  I shook hands with approximately 1,500 people who were waiting to get in.  Perhaps the most interesting story was about halfway through the line I met a lady and her young son.  He asked for my autograph, the first time this ever happened.  As I was signing, I saw the young boy reach over and tug his mothers coat and ask “Is that President Clinton?”.

We did have to wait quite awhile in the gym as President Clinton was behind schedule.  When he did arrive after 6:30 he didn’t disappoint.  He gave a rousing speech that lasted approximately 50 minutes and he actually made mention of ethanol as a viable alternative fuel source and even said that ethanol from cellulose material is the way to go in the future.  Then, as he left the stage, he worked his way around the barrier between the stage and the crowd and I was able to shake his hand.  I was 3 rows back but I reached up over the 2 rows ahead of me and got the handshake.

Friday March 28: I attended the opening of the Obama campaign office in DuBois.  I am so encouraged that a presidential campaign has opened an office in Clearfield County.  This is proof that rural Pennsylvania is going to have our say in this election.  I met several people at the opening and they are truly committed to making a difference in 2008.

Saturday March 29: I hosted a visit to the Clearfield area by John Cordisco candidate for State Treasurer.  I first met John last August at Rep. Bud George’s picnic and I was very impressed with him.  One thing that made me interested in him was that he also started his political career by serving on a school board.  I invited John and his staff person to join me at Denny’s Pub, famous as the home of the biggest hamburger in the world.  

He had a nice interview with Jane Elling from our local newspaper and then we all enjoyed one of Denny’s famous burgers.  Not the big one, just one of the regular sized burgers available on the menu.  John was very interested in the alternative fuels industry that we’ve brought to Clearfield County and north central Pennsylvania.  We also talked about state funding and investment issues and his vision to be an active and involved state treasurer.  He is a great candidate and I feel he will make an excellent treasurer for Pennsylvania.

Sunday March 30: Although I was not able to personally attend due to a Commissioners’ Conference, our campaign attended the Obama Rally for Change Event on the campus of Pennsylvania State University.  We had a chance to talk with a lot of young eager minds ready for change in Washington.  Although the gates opened at 11:30am, it was brought to our attention that students and interested citizens started lining up at 5:30am and even earlier.  This is the kind of dedication we need from our young people and from the citizens of the 5th District.  Although the lines were long and the wind brisk, the message of change kept the spectators lively.

Obama’s message of change and a new direction is precisely what the 5th District is looking for.  He pointed out that it is time to move beyond our differences and come together to forge a better future for all Americans.  He addressed the massive amounts of money we send overseas to fight this war and the rising costs of gas.  His solutions, and ours, is to invest in alternative fuel sources like ethanol.  We are proud to join Barack Obama in this fight.

In our seating location, we were honored to meet up with the great candidate for the 171st State House seat Tim Wilson.  Many state officials were also there including Senator Casey and State Rep. Dan Surra.  We thanked them for the warm welcome.  Luckily for us, we had a great seating location!  We were also informed that this rally was the largest in the history of Penn State and we were honored to attend.

It’s been a busy week and every day between now and April 22nd has something on the schedule.  Please keep spreading the word about the campaign and let us know what you are hearing.

Also, we expect to release some important campaign news on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

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