Tag: NY-23

The poll is here.  The 2-way topline is 54-38.  The 3-way was 51-34-13.

Most importantly, TAKE THE RESULTS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

PPP is a good outfit and could be right.

But they’ve had their stinkers, too, just like every pollster does.

Their sample size for this poll is HUGE.  But it was huge for their PA-Dem Presidential primary, and they were a bad outlier in wrongly calling it a dead heat.

This is a harder race to poll because it’s a special with nothing else on the ballot in much of the district except for scattered local races.  PPP makes turnout assumptions that may or may not be right in saying Republicans are energized and Democrats aren’t planning to vote.  That might turn out to be right, but a special election is a very different animal from a general or even a primary.

I ultimately take this poll as one plausible scenario.  If it was a regularly scheduled midterm, I’d take it very seriously.  But a lot more turnout for an election like this is orchestrated, and less of it organic, than a regularly scheduled general election.

I’m not accepting PPP is right, but I’m accepting they could be right.

Breaking now:

It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh’s lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.

In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.

Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There’s too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.

Well, I take back what I said about “reading between the lines” of Scozzafava’s statement yesterday. It’s good to see her doing the right thing here, and I’m sure it will only enrage the teabaggers further. (“See! She wasn’t a real Republican, just like we said!”) Quite a few other folks are also switching to Owens, among them the  New York State United Teachers union, which had previously spent about $50K on Dede’s behalf (see below). Several other unions are following suit, including the AFL-CIO and a local branch of the United Auto Workers. And Scozzafava’s husband, Ron McDougall – himself a union official – also endorsed the Democrat:

“This has been a difficult day for my family. But the needs and concerns of the men and women of the 23rd Congressional District remain paramount,” McDougall said. “As such, I wholeheartedly and without reservation endorse the candidacy of Bill Owens.”

“As a life-long labor activist, I know that Bill Owens understands the issues important to working people. On the other hand, Doug Hoffman has little regard for the interests of workers.”

“Hoffman’s opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, coupled with his support for the failed policies of the Bush Administration make him a poor choice to serve the citizens of the 23rd Congressional District.”

Similarly, the Watertown Daily Times had no problem enthusiastically backing Owens (they had previously given their nod to Dede):

Of the two, Bill Owens is by far the superior and only choice.

The Democratic candidate has demonstrated a willingness to listen to people about ways in which he could help the district as their representative in Washington. Mr. Owens has remained focused on the economy and job creation throughout his campaign. At the same time, he has shown an understanding of the military, a keen desire to help dairy farmers, an ability to work with labor unions and an eagerness to learn more about the vast, 11-county district that he hopes to represent.

Also, below is a chart summarizing all independent expenditures in the NY-23 race from Sept. 23rd (the first time outside groups spent money here) through Oct. 31st:

As noted above, the NYSUT (the union behind VOTE/COPE) just switched over to Owens from Scozzafava.

Absolutely a priceless moment. Here’s the link to the statement. Dede must be seriously cheesed off, I wonder if she switches parties after this disaster and sits as a Dem in the State Assembly.

http://www.watertowndailytimes…

Full statement after the jump.

I want to thank you for your support and friendship. Over the past 24 hours, I have had encouraging words sent to my family and me. Many of you have asked me whom you should support on Tuesday.

Since announcing the suspension of my campaign, I have thought long and hard about what is best for the people of this District, and how to answer your questions. This is not a decision that I have made lightly.

You know me, and throughout my career, I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically. Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it’s about the people of this District.

It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

It’s not in the cards for me to be your representative, but I strongly believe Bill is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh’s lasting legacy in the U.S. Congress. John and I worked together on the expansion of Fort Drum and I know how important that base is to the economy of this region. I am confident that Bill will be able to provide the leadership and continuity of support to Drum Country just as John did during his tenure in Congress.

In Bill Owens, I see a sense of duty and integrity that will guide him beyond political partisanship. He will be an independent voice devoted to doing what is right for New York. Bill understands this district and its people, and when he represents us in Congress he will put our interests first.

Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday. To address the tough challenges ahead, we must rise above partisanship and politics and work together. There’s too much at stake in this election to do otherwise.

WOW:

Republican Dede Scozzafava announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign in the Nov. 3 House special election in New York, a dramatic development that increases the GOP’s chances of winning the contentious and closely-watched race.

“In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be. The reality that I’ve come to accept is that in today’s political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money-and as I’ve been outspent on both sides, I’ve been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record,” she said in a statement.

“It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican.”

On first blush, this seems like bad news for Democrat Bill Owens. While there isn’t much time left, it allows Doug Hoffman to consolidate the Republican vote.

UPDATE: Dave Weigel reports that the chairman of the Independence Party is now endorsing Owens:

I just got off the phone with Frank MacKay, state chairman of the New York Independence Party, which had endorsed Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election. While Scozzafava has suspended her campaign, she will remain on the ballot as the candidate of the Republican and Independence Parties. MacKay can’t change that, but he told TWI that the party probably made a mistake in endorsing her over Democratic candidate Bill Owens.

“Some of our local organizations have endorsed Hoffman now that Scozzafava is out, and I want to be careful and respect their decisions,” said MacKay, who lives in downstate Suffolk County. “I don’t have a vote in the district. But if I did, I would vote for Bill Owens.” …

“If I knew how chaotic the Scozzafava campaign was going to be, I would have gone with Owens in the beginning,” said MacKay. “That certainly was a disastrous campaign.”

ANOTHER UPDATE: I was about to put up a post about Siena’s newest poll, though it seems a bit moot. I had already written it up, though, when the Dede news broke, so here you go:

Siena (PDF) (10/27-29, likely voters, 10/11-13 in parens):

Bill Owens (D): 36 (33)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 20 (29)

Doug Hoffman (C): 35 (23)

Undecided: 9 (15)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Siena’s numbers confirm R2K’s – Dede was in utter freefall.

ONE MORE UPDATE: A dispiriting tweet from Tom Jensen:

With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17…her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman

Those are very different numbers from what Siena and R2K have shown, though.

EXTRA UPDATE: Unsurprisingly, the NRCC is endorsing Hoffman. Scozzafava herself didn’t endorse Hoffman, but it’s easy to read between the lines:

“It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations,” she said.

“Most liberal candidate in the race” my ass.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: Charles Franklin points out that the Siena internals look bad for Owens:

Can Owens pick up from Scozzafava supporters? Not so likely given these poll results.

Owens Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava suppporters: 19/50

Hoffman Fav/Unfav among Scozzafava supporters: 15/57

Looks like a wash with many likely to skip the choice of two disliked alternatives.

And the worse news for Owens is among independents:

Ind. Fav/Unfav Owens: 39/47

Ind. Fav/Unfav Hoffman: 47/33

PINCH HITTER EDITION.

• AR-Sen: A new R2K poll for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy For America is yet another bad omen for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln: she’s only beating state Sen. Gilbert Baker by a 41-39 margin.

• NC-Sen: An Elon University poll finds GOP Sen. Richard Burr with crappy re-elects (19-42), while the latest Civitas poll shows Burr leading Democrat Elaine Marshall by 43-33.

• CA-10: In yet another sign that the Democratic base is taking a prolonged ganja break, Democrat John Garamendi, California’s Lt. Governor, is only leading Republican David Harmer by 50-40 in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race. Obama won this CD by a 65-33 margin last year.

• FL-02: Republicans have added a second challenger to the mix against Blue Dog Allen Boyd. Attorney Charlie Ranson is joining funeral home chain-owner Steve Southerland in the GOP primary.

• NY-23: Under normal circumstances, I would have said that ex-Gov. George Pataki was breaking ranks by endorsing Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman over Republican DeDe Scozzafava, but considering that RNC Chair Michael Steele came out today tacitly cheering Hoffman on, it seems that the GOP establishment itself is leaving Scozzafava out in the cold. Democrats, meanwhile, have deployed Joe Biden to campaign with Bill Owens in South Memphis Watertown on Monday.

• VA-05: The GOP field taking on frosh Dem Rep. Tom Perriello has gotten a little bit slimmer today, as “grassroots” candidate Bradley Rees is attempting to switch his candidacy over to the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. In any event, get a good look at this guy’s mug.

• SC-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, a guy with few friends in the Republican establishment, has just opened up a gubernatorial campaign account. I guess we can expect a formal announcement soon.

• Congress: Tons of lawmakers, including quite a few in bright blue jumpsuits, are under investigation for ethical misconduct.

• Midterms: Joe Lieberman is still an asshole, in case you have forgotten. The Rave Master himself says that he expects to share some of his Joementum with GOP candidates next year through his personal endorsement.

• Voting: Chuck Schumer’s legislation mandating that military and overseas voters get at least 45 days to return their ballots came into force as part of the defense spending bill that President Obama signed into law on Wednesday. As we noted previously, this could force a number of states to push their primaries earlier. Green Papers has a list of potentially affected states. (D)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/26-28, likely voters, 10/19-21 in parentheses):

Bill Owens (D): 33 (35)

Dede Scozzafava (R): 21 (30)

Doug Hoffman (C): 32 (23)

Undecided: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4%)

The new poll of NY-23 from Research 2000 doesn’t go as far as the two Doug Hoffman internal polls in showing the Hoffman surge (they showed him in the lead), but they do give the momentum to the Conservative Party candidate. Democrat Bill Owens has lost a little ground, while Republican Dede Scozzafava has basically collapsed over the last couple weeks. Hoffman’s performance is strongest among independents — I’s go 47% for Hoffman, with 28 for Owens and 11 for Scozzafava — while also leading among Republicans (41 for Hoffman, 34 for Scozzafava, and 13 for Owens).

Scozzafava’s approvals have also fallen like a rock (down to 32/46), compared with 38/23 for Hoffman and 36/26 for Owens. We’ll get some more confirmation on these trends soon, as Siena and PPP both have polls in the works here too.

There’s a lot else going on in the 23rd:

• New 48 hours reports show Hoffman leading the field in fundraising over the last couple days ($32K, including contributions from the leadership PACs of Reps. Steve King, John Linder, and Jeff Flake), Owens not far behind at $27K, and Scozzafava lagging at $12K.

• Newly-formed (i.e. last week) right-wing group Common Sense in America is engaged in some rope-a-dope advertising, running a TV ad that claims that Scozzafava is the “best choice for progressives,” in an effort to steer Republican voters away from her and to Hoffman. The group’s founder is Arkansas businessman Jackson Stephens, also a board member of the Club for Growth. Meanwhile, there’s also an anti-Owens TV ad up from the Hoffman camp, calling him Nancy Pelosi’s “lackey.”

• The local establishment is still sticking with Scozzafava, as seen by her endorsement from the Watertown Daily Times (Watertown is the core of her Assembly district). However, a who’s who of the behind-the-scenes puppetmasters of the movement conservatives (Family Research Council head Tony Perkins, American Conservative Union head David Keene, publisher Alfred Regnery, direct mail pioneer Richard Viguerie) all signed a letter jointly endorsing Hoffman.

RaceTracker: NY-23

• Volunteering: Marriage/partnership equality campaigns in three states are looking for help down the home stretch. The best part is, you don’t even have to leave your chair – all three organizations are looking for folks to make calls to help get out the vote. So if you’d like to help, follow the links for Maine, Washington state, and Kalamazoo, Michigan. The folks in Kalamazoo are also looking for in-person volunteers – click here if you are in the area. (D)

• CT-Sen: With Joe Lieberman back to his usual self-promoting mavericky ways, vis a vis the public option, and with the netroots worked up into a lather, it’s a perfect time for Ned Lamont to step back into the spotlight. The 2006 Democratic primary winner attacked Lieberman’s statements, although he sounded interested but noncommital about the idea of a 2012 rematch.

• FL-Sen: Here’s another sign that the Charlie Crist camp is starting to take the Marco Rubio threat more seriously. They’ve launched an anti-Rubio website, TruthAboutRubio.com.

• KS-Sen: Oklahoma’s Jim Inhofe endorsed Rep. Todd Tiahrt in the GOP primary in the open seat Senate race in Kansas. Inhofe seems to be the first sitting senator to endorse Tiahrt (although Rick Santorum already did); several senators (John McCain, John Thune, and Inhofe’s colleague Tom Coburn) have already endorsed the less hardline Rep. Jerry Moran.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Niki Tsongas (the only woman in the Massachusetts House delegation) endorsed AG Martha Coakley in the Dem primary for the upcoming Senate special election. It’s Coakley’s first endorsement from a House member; four other House members have gotten behind Rep. Michael Capuano.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall has another poll of the Pennsylvania races out, and like a lot of other pollsters, they’re finding that people aren’t very enthused about Arlen Specter, and are getting even less enthusiastic, giving him a 28/46 favorable (down from 35/42 in August), and a 23/66 reading on the “deserves re-election” question. Specter currently leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey 33-31 (down from 37-29 in August), and beats Rep. Joe Sestak in the Dem primary 30-18 (down from 37-11). Sestak loses to Toomey, 28-20. F&M also look at the gubernatorial primaries (no general matchups, though). AG Tom Corbett leads on the GOP side over Rep. Jim Gerlach, 30-8, while the Dem field plays out: 10 for Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, 9 from Auditor Jack Wagner, 6 for ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel, 3 for Tom Knox, and 3 for Scranton mayor Chris Doherty.

• SD-Sen: Democrats may turn to an old family name for a Senate candidate against John Thune: Mark McGovern, the 37-year-old grandson of former Senator and presidential candidate George McGovern. McGovern is state director for Repower America, a clean energy advocacy group, and was state director for the 2008 Obama campaign.

• CT-Gov: The campaign for Democratic SoS Susan Bysiewicz is making references to an internal poll that has her trailing by only 6 to the once-thought-unassailable Jodi Rell in 2010, 47-41. (And that assumes Rell runs — given her fundraising, and now the possibility of a hard race, she may not be on track to do so.) The poll also finds Bysiewicz overperforming Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (who loses to Rell 52-31), and beating Malloy in the primary, 44-12.

• SC-Gov: An impeachment resolution against Mark Sanford was introduced today by Republican state Rep. Greg Dellenny during the brief special session. However, fellow Republican speaker Bobby Harrell ruled it out of order, as outside the scope of the special session. It’ll have to wait until January.

• VA-Gov (pdf): Looks like we’ll have to wait another day (and probably a lot longer than that) for signs of life in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Virginia Commonwealth issued their first poll of the race, giving Bob McDonnell a 54-36 edge over Creigh Deeds (51-33 without leaners pushed). Rasmussen chimes in with similar numbers at 54-41 for McDonnell (finding a spreading McDonnell lead like most pollsters; two weeks ago they had it at 50-43). Pollster.com‘s regression line has the overall total moving today to the exact same result: 54-41.

• TX-Gov: Maybe this falls under the category of an endorsement you don’t really want to tout, but Kay Bailey Hutchison needs every vote she can get in what looks like a tight GOP primary with incumbent Gov. Rick Perry. KBH secured the endorsement of Dick Cheney today.

• CA-19: I’m still not sure what conservative Rep. George Radanovich did to wrong the local GOP, but the hunt goes on for an even more conservative Republican to challenge him in the primary. One possible challenger is former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, who’s looking for a new political gig. (Patterson ran for Congress in 2002 in then-new CA-21, losing the GOP primary to Devin Nunes.) Patterson may also be interested in replacing termed-out Mike Villines in the state Assembly.

• FL-08: Buried in a longer Politico piece titled, appropriately, “Rivals shy away from Alan Grayson” are three more potential Republican challengers: first-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, attorney Will McBride (who lost the 2006 Senate primary to Katherine Harris), and businessman Bruce O’Donoghue. O’Donoghue, who’s close to Mel Martinez, sounds like the likeliest of those three to run.

• NY-23: Big money continues to flow into the 23rd on the pro-Bill Owens side, with another $245K from the DCCC, and $200K from the AFSCME. MoveOn.org has also started flogging this race in its fundraising e-mails, saying that it’s a chance to rebuke the Palin/teabagger wing of the GOPers. Meanwhile, Doug Hoffman continues to rack up the endorsements from people that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, and even Oklahoma House candidate Kevin Calvey and California Senate candidate Chuck DeVore. RNC chair Michael Steele is still standing by Dede Scozzafava, though.

• TN-09: It looks like former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton may self-destruct before Rep. Steve Cohen even lays into him in the Dem primary in the 9th. Herenton is reportedly the target of a criminal probe by the local US Attorney’s office focusing on “personal business transactions” during his time as mayor. Herenton, naturally, is calling the investigation politically-motivated.

• VA-02: Here’s a screwup for Ben Loyola, one of the Republicans jostling to take on freshman Dem Rep. Glenn Nye and one who made a big self-funding impact last quarter. Loyola may have low-balled estimates of the value of a division of his company that he sold to a Swedish firm, at best a disclosure violation in terms of reporting his net worth, and at worst an illegal campaign contribution.

• EMILY’s List: EMILY’s List added four Democratic House members to its list of endorsees. Three are swing-district freshmen (Debbie Halvorson, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Dina Titus), and the other one is the perpetually shaky Carol Shea-Porter.

• WA-Init: A slew of polls out of Washington yesterday and today, containing good news. UW’s Washington Poll finds that R-71 (a referendum in favor of expanded domestic partnership) is passing 57-38, while I-1033 (the latest TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is failing 40-49. These numbers are confirmed by SurveyUSA, which finds R-71 passing 50-43, and I-1033 going down 38-50. The Washington Poll also looks at the King County Executive race, which (though ostensibly nonpartisan) sees Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine beating Republican former news anchor Susan Hutchison 47-34 — they don’t have trendlines, and the only comparison point is SurveyUSA, who last showed Hutchison with a surprising 47-42 lead, so this one still bears watching. The Washington Poll finds Joe Mallahan leading Mike McGinn in the Seattle mayor’s race, 44-36.

• Census: An independent analysis of the effect of the proposed David Vitter legislation that would only count U.S. citizens for purposes of reapportionment finds a very different looking House. California post-2010 would lose five House seats, and Texas would gain only one House seat (instead of the projected three). The proposed change would also spare Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania the expected loss of one seat each. (The study is worth a look also because it projects which states gain and lose seats according to normal rules, and also looks at which metro areas are experiencing ‘brain drain.’)

• One more poll released in this race today, and like yesterday’s Club for Growth poll, it’s another poll from a Republican pollster on behalf of a fringe-right group: Neighborhood Research (the Rick Shaftan-run New Jersey-based pollsters who were right-winger Steve Lonegan’s pollster in the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary) for the Minuteman PAC (the Minutemen have enough money to commission a poll? that may be the most newsworthy thing in the whole story…). They put up similar numbers as yesterday’s CfG poll, with Conservative Doug Hoffman leading at 34, Democrat Bill Owens at 29, and Republican Dede Scozzafava dwindling at 14. At any rate, now Pollster.com has enough data to put together some trendlines for the race (no surprise: Owens and Hoffman going up fast, Scozzafava nosediving). There’s also some interesting back-and-forth between Nate Silver and Pollster’s Mark Blumenthal on just how much salt to take these two polls with.

• In the endorsement parade, Hoffman continues to rack ’em in, from Representatives that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of — Georgia’s John Linder, worried that Scozzafava would give Nancy Pelosi bipartisan cover, and SSP’s favorite punching bag, Oklahoma’s Tom Cole, who, reprising his role as master strategist, understands that Scozzafava has no reasonable shot of winning anymore. The New York Post‘s very conservative editorial page also endorsed Hoffman, and Fred Thompson (who was one of the first name-brand Republicans to endorse Hoffman) awoke from his slumbers long enough to cut a TV spot on behalf of Hoffman. Even Michael Barone (editor of the Almanac of American Politics) got in the act today, playing the ACORN card against Scozzafava.

• Newt Gingrich, however, is left holding the establishment GOP’s standard by himself and is doubling down on Scozzafava, decrying the “purge” and saying that supporting a spoiler is the best way to strengthen Pelosi’s hand. The Hill picks up on this growing divide today when looking at NY-23 in the context of the GOP’s 0-for-4 streak at holding contested House special elections (IL-14, MS-01, LA-06, NY-20 — with the first three all seeing nasty, contested primaries, and even NY-20 distinguished by an insider pick that didn’t ignite the base).

• Finally, kudos to our own silver spring, whose now-seminal diary “The Amazing History of NY-23” (if one can accuse an SSP diary of actually being “seminal”) showed how the core of the 23rd hasn’t been represented by a Democrat since 1850. That diary got a citation in the New York Times today.

A few questions have come up about the FEC’s so-called “48-hour reports.” They’re actually pretty simple. From a PDF on the FEC’s website:

Who Must File FEC Form 6

Principal campaign committees must file 48-hour notices on contributions of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours, before 12:01 a.m. of the day of any election in which the candidate participates. …

When to File

FEC Form 6 must be received by the federal and state (where required) filing offices within 48 hours after acampaign’s receipt of any contribution of $1,000 or more received after the 20th day, but more than 48 hours before, the date of any election in which the candidate participates.

The candidates in NY-23 have been filing 48-hour reports since the close of the reporting period for their “pre-special” fundraising reports, Oct. 15th. But because the 48-hour reports have to be filed very quickly, all three campaigns had already posted a bunch of them before they were required to file their pre-special reports. We gathered those numbers in the right-hand column of the chart in this post.

As you can see from the link, Bill Owens was already kicking ass in this department as of last Thursday. But since then, the disparity has grown much, much greater. Both Owens and Hoffman have each filed three new 48-hour reports; Scozzafava, by contrast, has filed just one. The overall tally is therefore no surprise:

     Owens:   $73,100

     Hoffman: $43,100

     Dede:    $ 2,000

Now, these reports only cover big ($1,000+) donations, so I suppose it’s possible that Dede is raking in a lot of last-minute small-dollar checks. But I tend to doubt that. One thing we do know for sure is that Republican members of Congress – who seldom write checks for less than four figures – have all but forsaken her. Fewer than twenty have given to her so far, and none in her final hour of need. Meanwhile, by my count, over sixty have given to Owens, and many more than once – giving money via campaign committees and leadership PACs, and making donations for 2009 and 2010. This flow has continued unabated – just yesterday, Rep. Joe Crowley’s PAC threw down another $5,000, and Rep. Charlie Gonzales came in for $2,000.

I’m not sure even Obi Wan Kenobi could help Scozzafava now – not that he would.

• AR-Sen: Another day, another random conservative guy running for the Senate in Arkansas. Today, it’s the turn for Stanley Reed, the former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and former president of the University of Arkansas board of trustees, who says he’s considering the race for the Republican nod. (H/t CongressDaily.)

• FL-Sen: The Police Benevolent Association, friendly with Charlie Crist from his law-and-order days as Attorney General, commissioned a poll via McLaughlin & Associates that paints a slightly rosier picture of Crist’s race against Marco Rubio than we’ve seen from several other pollsters last week. They find Crist up against Rubio 53-29, with a 67% approval.

• IA-Sen: It looks like Christie Vilsack (the former Iowa first lady, and political heavyweight in her own right) won’t be challenging Chuck Grassley after all. She’d sounded receptive to the idea in the last few weeks, but today she’s telling the Des Moines Register that she won’t run. Lawyer and former gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin had sounded close to running last week, so the ball’s in Conlin’s court now.

• LA-Sen: Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is the only prominent Republican left who hasn’t ruled out a challenge to David Vitter in the Republican primary, and, although he hasn’t taken any steps, he’s still not shutting the door on it. Last week on a radio show he confirmed that he hasn’t ruled it out. While a primary between the two hasn’t been polled since March (with Vitter leading 43-32), a recent poll had Dardenne overperforming Vitter against Charlie Melancon in the general.

• MA-Sen: A poll of the Democratic primary, from Western New England College Polling Institute, in the special election in Massachusetts finds that AG Martha Coakley is still in the driver’s seat, but that some of her competitors are gaining ground as they get better-known. Coakley is at 37, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca at 14 (that’s what spending all that money on ads will get you), Rep. Michael Capuano at 13, and City Year founder Alan Khazei at 4. The general election is shaping up to be a non-event, as Coakley beats Republican state Sen. Scott Brown 58-32 and Capuano beats him 49-33.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold finally has a noteworthy challenger: Terrence Wall, a Madison-area real estate developer who seems to have lots of money, although he’s never been elected before and it’s not clear what poltical skills he brings to the table. Wall is a frequent GOP donor, although he’s also given money to his local Dem, Rep. Tammy Baldwin.

• MI-Gov: Rasmussen took a look at the Michigan governor’s race, but without a clear sense of who the nominees will be, they just did a generic ballot test. Generic R leads Generic D by only a point, 37-36 — suggesting that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who hasn’t polled well in general election matchups, is underperforming Generic D. Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm’s approval is 40/60.

• NJ-Gov: Suffolk University takes its first poll of the New Jersey governor’s race, and while it would be nice to say this was the new reality, it’s probably more likely an outlier: Jon Corzine leads Chris Christie 42-33, with Chris Daggett pulling in 7. Suffolk did an interesting experiment: they listed all 12 minor candidates, and they ate a bit into Daggett’s numbers, pulling in a cumulative 3%. Corzine also has surprisingly high favorables, at 45/46, with Christie at 34/46. Monmouth, however, explains what might have happened with this sample (apparently a simple mistake that out-of-state pollsters often make): Suffolk weighted party ID by registration, but because of NJ’s semi-open primary system, many unaffiliateds are actually partisan and should be polled as such.

Meanwhile, with most polls still pointing to a tossup, Barack Obama is back for one more rally with Corzine next weekend. Chris Christie can ill-afford one more scandal in the news, but that seems to be happening anyway, as stories about his seemingly politically-motivated hiring of the son of Christie patron and mentor Herbert Stern as an assistant US Attorney, despite Stern Jr.’s mediocre interviews.

• NY-Gov: This is the kind of courtesy call you don’t really want — the kind that says “I’m taking the job you want.” According to the NY Post’s Fred Dicker (so add salt according to taste), Andrew Cuomo contacted Rudy Giuliani through intermediaries to let him know that he will, in no uncertain terms, be running for Governor.

• CA-11: One more Republican sounds like he’s ready to join the strangely crowded field to go up against Rep. Jerry McNerney next year. Former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram says he’ll move into the district to take on McNerney — but it seems like he may want to do a little research before getting too committed, as he claimed that McNerney is weak because he was just swept in as part of the “Obama wave.” (McNerney, of course, was first elected in 2006.)

• FL-19: The special election in the 19th is shaping up to be pretty uneventful: over the weekend, not only did outgoing Rep. Robert Wexler endorse state Sen. Peter Ted Deutch to take over for him, but so too did everyone else representing the Gold Coast: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Ron Klein, and Alcee Hastings.

• MI-02: A whole lot of Dutch-American conservative Republicans are jostling to take over from Rep. Peter Hoekstra in the solidly-red 2nd, and one of the field’s heavy hitters made his entry official: state Sen. Wayne Kuipers. He faces former state Rep. Bill Huizenga, former NFL player Jay Riemersma, and businessman Bill Cooper.

• NY-23 (pdf): There have been rumors of private polls out there given a small lead to third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, and now his sponsors at the Club for Growth have openly released one. Basswood Research finds Hoffman in the lead with 31, with Democrat Bill Owens at 27 and Republican Dede Scozzafava lagging at 20, with 22 undecided (although with a huge 6% MoE, anything could be happening). That must have something to do with the DCCC’s new strategy; their new negative ad is going after Hoffman, rather than Scozzafava. Also, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty finally got off the fence and decided to throw his lot in with the movement: he endorsed Hoffman.

• NY-24: The New York Times, in a broader piece on GOP targeting of New York House Democrats, has an interesting tidbit we hadn’t seen before: the GOP is trying to coax Michael Richard Hanna, the businessman who performed surprisingly well against Rep. Mike Arcuri last year, into a rematch.

• KY-St. Sen.: We’re moving one step closer to another vacant seat and special election in Kentucky’s Senate (which is controlled 21-17 by Republicans right now). Republican Dan Kelly was nominated for a state circuit court position, and he just needs Gov. Steve Beshear’s approval to get the job. Competitors are already lining up for the special, including Republican state Rep. Jimmy Higdon and Democratic former state Rep. Jodie Haydon. (In case you were wondering if Kentucky, which votes for statewide offices in odd-numbered years, is having legislative elections next week, the answer is no; state legislators are still elected in even-numbered years.)

• VA-St. House: One more good piece in the diaries breaking down the individual races in Virginia’s House of Delegates into Tossup, Lean, and Likely, thanks to our Johnny Longtorso. One particularly interesting race is the 51st District in exurban Prince William County, where Republican Rich Anderson, challenging Dem incumbent Paul Nichols in a very competitive race, may face criminal charges for giving out Nichols’ Social Security number on a mailer to over 15,000 area residents.

• ME-Init: Another poll from Pan Atlantic SMS of Question 1 in Maine on gay marriage. They find 42 yes and 53 no (with “no” being a vote in favor of continuing gay marriage), not much changed from their September poll (43-52) but the most optimistic numbers we’ve seen yet here.

• Mayors: In New York City, Quinnipiac finds incumbent Michael Bloomberg (the $85 million man) with a sizable edge against Democratic comptroller William Thompson, leading 53-35 with a lead in every borough. (Not much change from 52-36 a month ago.) In what looks to be the first poll of the Atlanta mayoral race, SurveyUSA finds city councilor Mary Norwood with a big lead, although not quite enough to avoid a runoff with the 2nd place finisher. Norwood is at 46%, followed by state Sen. Kasim Reed at 26% and city councilor Lisa Borders at 17%. Norwood leads 6:1 among whites, independents, and Republicans; Reed leads among African-Americans. Also worth a read is a piece from our own diaries about major (and minor) mayoral races from elections09, which gets into the weeds on some tight races not on anybody’s national radar screen (with Vancouver, WA and Stamford, CT as particularly interesting examples).