Tag: PA-Sen

• CO-Sen: The nomination process in Colorado has worked its way up to the county-level assemblies now, and former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff still has an edge over appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the race for Democratic Senate primary delegates. Romanoff has a 57-42 edge over Bennet, bolstered by strong numbers in the urban Denver and El Paso Counties.

• CT-Sen: This may not turn out to be much, but it’s another drip-drip hurting Linda McMahon’s credibility. It’s been revealed that in 1989, she gave advance warning to a doctor, George Zahorian, of a pending federal investigation; Zahorian was later convicted of selling steroids to WWF wrestlers. (Only Zahorian was convicted; the government’s case against the WWF fell apart.)

• IN-Sen: Take this with as much salt as you’d like, as it’s a leak of an Indiana GOP Senate primary poll to a right-wing blog and the leak doesn’t even say which candidate’s camp it came from, let alone who the pollster is. Nevertheless, it shows a tight race between Dan Coats and John Hostettler: Coats leads 29-26, with Marlin Stutzman not to be counted out either at 18.

• MA-Sen: Here’s more evidence that Scott Brown is intent on trying to have a long career as a moderate New England Senator, rather than flaming out in half a term of teabagging glory. He said thanks but not thanks to appearing with Sarah Palin at a teabagger rally on Boston Common on Wednesday.

• OH-Sen: Another big quarter for Rob Portman, who’s started to fall behind in recent polling against his Democratic opposition but who will have a huge cash advantage over whoever his opponent is. He pulled in $2.3 million last quarter, bringing his CoH total to a ridiculous $7.6 million.

• WA-Sen: Here’s what may be a tea leaf that Dino Rossi isn’t likely to run for Senate this year: state Sen. Don Benton, who’s already in the race for the GOP and is a friend of Rossi, says “I don’t believe Dino would allow me to sacrifice my family time and my business if he was going to run for the U.S. Senate,” and “If he had serious plans, I really believe he would have told me that.” Of course, this may also be a shot across Rossi’s bow, especially since Benton also points out that his fundraising ($130K last quarter) has suffered as everyone watches Rossi instead.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): I don’t know why so many small schools in the Northeast feel the need to have their very own polling operation, but now Muhlenberg College is getting in on the act too. Their apparently first look at the Senate race uses a likely voter model, so as you might expect, it gives a bit of a lead to Pat Toomey. Toomey leads Arlen Specter 47-40 and leads Joe Sestak 33-22 (with leaners). There’s a whole lotta undecideds in the gubernatorial race, but Tom Corbett has a clear advantage among those who’ve decided: he leads Dan Onorato 42-18, Jack Wagner 44-16, and Joe Hoffel 45-11.

• GA-Gov: Ethics questions are continuing to follow around ex-Rep. Nathan Deal even though he’s left the House now, in order to pursue his gubernatorial bid. Turns out he spent $20K from his state campaign account to pay for legal fees related to the House Ethics inquiry into his car inspection business. The state’s ethics board says it’s unclear whether or not it’s a violation, as it’s a situation they’ve never dealt with before.

• NY-Gov: With his teabag-flavored gubernatorial campaign only a few weeks old, Carl Paladino’s campaign manager is already in damage control mode, acknowledging today that, yes, his boss send out some e-mails to political and business contacts that were “off-color” and “politically incorrect.” If, by politically incorrect, you mean including an African tribal dance photo entitled “Obama Inauguration Rehearsal,” and hardcore bestiality photos.

• PA-Gov: Two House members endorsed in the Democratic governor’s primary, and given their geographical connections, neither one should be a surprise. Pittsburgh-area Rep. Mike Doyle endorsed Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, while PA-01’sBob Brady (who just happens to be chair of the Philadelphia City Democrats in his spare time) backs state Sen. Anthony Williams. Getting the Philly machine officially behind Williams, currently lagging his opponents, may help him gain a little ground on his competition.

• SC-Gov: AG Henry McMaster had a strong fundraising quarter in the race to replace Mark Sanford, pulling in $464K and sitting on $1.4 million CoH. He’s almost caught up with Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was last year’s fundraising leader; Barrett raised $427K and holds $1.5 million CoH.

• HI-01: Looks like it’s turning into the DCCC vs. everybody else in the 1st. The AFL-CIO and Longshoremen, undeterred by the D-Trip’s preferences, are both weighing into the race with mailers on behalf of Colleen Hanabusa, pointing out Ed Case’s anti-labor record.

• MI-01: More local politicians are starting to jump into the race in the 1st, with last Friday’s sudden departure of Bart Stupak. Democratic State Rep. Joel Sheltrown said he’ll get in the race (joining Connie Saltonstall, who had been challenging Stupak in the primary). One problem for Sheltrown, though, is that he’s a “troll” (i.e. from under the bridge, instead of from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s center of gravity is). One other sorta-big-name possible contender who doesn’t quite live in the district, ex-Rep. Jim Barcia (who’s got gerrymandered out of MI-05 in 2002, dropped down to the state Senate, which he’s now term-limited out of), confirmed he wouldn’t run. Roll Call also has the names of a few other potential Dems that we haven’t mentioned yet, including state Reps. Jeff Mayes, Judy Nerat, and Steve Lindberg, and state Agriculture Director Don Koivisto. Other possible GOPers include state Sen. Jason Allen, former state Rep. Tom Casperson (who lost by a wide margin to Stupak in 2008), and former state Rep. Scott Shackleton.

• NY-24: Republican repeat challenger Richard Hanna raised $350K in the first quarter for the race against Rep. Mike Arcuri; that’s on top of the $600K he loaned himself.

• PA-04: The growing scandal surrounding the Orie family (centered on state Sen. Jane Orie, who allegedly had staff in her office working on campaign work on the state’s dime) spilled over into the 4th. Mary Beth Buchanan’s campaign manager, Kurt Acker, resigned on Friday after it came out that he was one of those Orie staffers participating in the violations.

• TN-08: Looks like we’ve got a good case of the dueling rich guys in the GOP primary in the 8th: physician Ron Kirkland is reporting $607K raised last quarter. Throw in the $250K he lent himself, and he’s already drawn almost even with Stephen Fincher, who’s already gotten the NRCC’s imprimatur based on his own fundraising.

• VA-05: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello also put up excellent fundraising numbers this quarter, and that seems to have more to do with getting the base excited about him (with his tough vote in favor of HCR) rather than dipping into his own wallet. Perriello raised $600K in the first quarter, leaving him with $1.4 million CoH for what’s sure to be a bruising general election campaign.

• WV-01: There have been some indications that Rep. Alan Mollohan was on the outs with the West Virginia Democratic establishment (starting top-down with Gov. Bob Manchin), but here’s an interesting clue that suggests otherwise: Mollohan’s primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, complained at a candidate forum that he’d requested registered voter files from the state committee and hadn’t received them, and he wondered if Mollohan’s influence had anything to do with that.

• Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has some added nuance on the issue of the House generic ballot, which pundits have been pointing to lately as evidence of possible huge Republican gains in the House in November. The Gallup generic ballot poll does have some predictive value… but that’s only the final Gallup poll before the election, making it a not-terribly-reliable measure at this point in time.

Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 43

Pat Toomey (R): 46

Undecided: 11

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 42

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 41 (49)

Pat Toomey (R): 46 (42)

Undecided: 12 (8)

Joe Sestak (D): 34 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (39)

Undecided: 22 (24)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Arlen Specter (D): 53 (53)

Joe Sestak (D): 32 (29)

Undecided: 15 (14)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

PPP’s first look at the Pennsylvania Senate race finds a small lead for Pat Toomey; Quinnipiac’s newest entry pretty much confirms their numbers, despite their slightly different models (Quinnipiac polls registered voters) and despite showing a decent Arlen Specter lead last month. PPP’s sample breaks down very neatly: Specter leads by 71 among people who approve of Obama, while Toomey leads by 71 among people who disapprove. With Obama at 46/50 approval in Pennsylvania, that’s enough for a small Toomey lead. (The sample breaks down 49 voted for Obama, 48 for McCain, so their sort-of-LV model is a bit more conservative than the 2008 electorate.)

Public Policy Polling (3/29-4/1, Pennsylvania voters, no trend lines):

Dan Onorato (D): 32

Tom Corbett (R): 45

Undecided: 23

Jack Wagner (D): 30

Tom Corbett (R): 43

Undecided: 27

Joe Hoeffel(D): 31

Tom Corbett (R): 46

Undecided: 23

Anthony Williams (D): 27

Tom Corbett (R): 45

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Quinnipiac (3/31-4/5, registered voters, 2/22-28 in parentheses) (primary numbers):

Dan Onorato (D): 33 (32)

Tom Corbett (R): 45 (42)

Undecided: 21 (24)

Jack Wagner (D): 29 (30)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (42)

Undecided: 21 (26)

Joe Hoeffel(D): 28 (30)

Tom Corbett (R): 50 (41)

Undecided: 21 (27)

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Dan Onorato (D): 20 (16)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 15 (10)

Jack Wagner (D): 13 (11)

Anthony Williams (D): 5 (2)

Undecided: 47 (59)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Tom Corbett (R): 58

Sam Rohrer (R): 7

Undecided: 35

(MoE: ±4.4%)

The Pennsylvania Governor’s race didn’t look good before, and now it looks even worse if you follow Quinnipiac’s trendlines (although the shift mirrors the shift in the Senate race in the same sample, indicating they got a much more conservative batch this month). PPP’s first look at the race isn’t quite as bad, but still confirms the general idea. As both PPP’s Tom Jensen and Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown point out in their writeups, things are likely to tighten up once the Democratic primary is over and the focus is on one candidate. Right now, the Dems have such a name rec deficit (against Tom Corbett, currently getting his name in the news constantly with the Bonusgate prosecutions) that the race is very much of a question mark at this point. With Corbett flirting with the 50% mark, though, the Dems may be getting into too deep a hole here to dig out once they’ve coalesced.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen | PA-Gov

IL-Sen: Have I mentioned lately that Mark Kirk is an utter wiener? No? Well, Mark Kirk is an utterly predictable wiener. After charging gung-ho in the direction of “Repeal!”, Kirk has decided to quickly drop his push to roll back healthcare reform, preferring instead to remind everyone how expensive it is.

NV-Sen: Here’s some bitter tea for fans of right-wing vote-splitting. It appears that Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian is facing criminal charges for theft relating to bad checks he allegedly wrote for his asphalt business. Ashjian won’t have to withdraw his candidacy if arrested, but headlines like these can’t help him syphon off any substantial amount of votes from the GOP’s flank.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter landed a huge endorsement in his primary battle against Joe Sestak yesterday, with the news that the Pennsylvania AFL-CIO has elected to back the five-term incumbent.

TX-Sen: Kay Bailey Hutchison will announce her future plans in San Antonio this morning, flanked by Mitch McConnell and John Cornyn. I think it’s probably a safe guess to say that she’s likely going to serve out the remainder of her term, despite her many promises otherwise.

FL-Gov: Republican Bill McCollum leads Democrat Alex Sink by 49-34 according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll of the race.

GA-Gov: 31 douchebags Republican state legislators have signed a resolution calling for the impeachment of Democratic AG Thurbert Baker after his refusal to challenge the constitutionality of the recent healthcare reform legislation. Baker, who has been struggling in the polls for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination against ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, is probably enjoying the free publicity, if nothing else.

MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill got busted for sending out a mass fundraising solicitation for his Independent gubernatorial bid to state legislators from his official e-mail account, which is a violation of Massachusetts campaign finance rules.

MD-Gov: Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich confirmed on Tuesday that he will attempt a comeback against Democrat Martin O’Malley this year.

AR-01: This one ranks pretty low on the list of unexpected political news. Retiring Democratic Rep. Marion Berry will endorse his former chief of staff, Chad Causey, for the Dem nomination to succeed him. Causey also recently picked up the support of the Arkansas AFL-CIO.

FL-19: At least one of these things may strain your credulity. Republican Ed Lynch, running in the April 13 special election to replace Democrat Robert Wexler in the House, says that his fundraising has seen “probably a thousand percent increase” since Congress passed healthcare reform, and that “polling we’ve done” shows him ahead of Democrat Ted Deutch. Of course, his campaign isn’t coming forward with any evidence of the existence of any such polls.

GA-12: Republican Ray McKinney, a nuclear power project manager who lost the GOP primary in 2008 for the right to take on John Barrow, says that he’s going to try again this year. McKinney joins Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith, retired businessman Mike Horner, activist Jeanne Seaver and restaurant owner George Brady in the GOP primary.

MI-13: Metro Detroit pastor Glenn Plummer, the founder of the African American Christian Television Network, has announced that he’ll challenge Carolyn Cheeks-Kilpatrick in the Democratic primary, joining state Sen. Hansen Clarke for a three-way race. Don’t expect Plummer to be a progressive choice, though: he freely admits that he voted for Bush in 2004, spoke to a GOP convention that same year, and has also used his pulpit to argue in favor of a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Yuck.

MO-03: Rusty Wallace — not the NASCAR champion, but a CAD technician and avid teabagger — will join the highly-touted Ed Martin in the Republican primary for the right to upset Dem Rep. Russ Carnahan.

MO-07: It looks like a couple of high profile candidates have slipped under the wire for the race to fill the seat of Senatorial aspirant Roy Blunt. Ex-state Rep. Steve Hunter will become the ninth GOP candidate in the mix, which some local observers suspect may be a ploy from one of the other candidates to syphon off votes from state Sen. Gary Noodler, who shares Hunter’s regional base. For the Democrats, Scott Eckersley, an attorney who served in ex-Gov. Matt Blunt’s administration, also filed to run for this R+17 seat. Eckersley settled a wrongful termination lawsuit with the state last year after alleging that he was dismissed for raising questions within the administration over the destruction of controversial state e-mails. Eckersley isn’t committed to a run, though, and said he filed in order to keep his options open.

NV-03: Ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) is leading Democratic frosh Rep. Dina Titus by 40-35, according to a new internal poll conducted by Wilson Research Strategies for Heck’s campaign.

NY-29: Local Democrats still haven’t settled on a nominee for the special election in this upstate New York district, but at least we now know the names of six of the potential candidates:

The interviewed candidates include Southern Tier native Matthew Zeller, former Allegany County District 4 Legislator Michael McCormick, David Nachbar, a former state Senate candidate and businessman from Pittsford, Rush-Henrietta Central School District teacher David Rose, and Assemblyman David Koon, D-Perinton. Mary Wilmot, an aide to Gov. David Paterson, was the lone women interviewed.

PA-10: I never thought I’d say this, but why can’t we have more Dems like Chris Carney? After harshly criticizing Sarah Palin for putting his House district in literal cross hairs, Carney defended his HCR vote to a local TV station:

“You can’t vote worried about your career, you have to vote the right way,” Carney said. “You have to vote your conscience and for me this was a vote of conscience.”

Remember when the GOP tried to recruit Carney to join their caucus?

SC-05: John Spratt is a true hero. Just a day after filing for re-election in the face of persistent retirement rumors fueled by NRCC schemers and beltway natterers, Spratt has announced that he’s been diagnosed with early stage Parkinson’s disease. Spratt insists that his symptoms are mild and that his condition won’t impede his ability to serve in Congress — or run a vigorous re-election race.

SD-AL: Physician Kevin Weiland has dropped his plans to challenge Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, citing his concern for party unity. Weiland issued a joint press release with Herseth Sandlin announcing the news, and based his decision partly on assurances from Herseth Sandlin that she would not vote to repeal healthcare reform. (Hat-tip: doug tuttle)

TN-06: Democrats have finally found a candidate to run for the seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon. Marine Capt. Ben Leming, an Iraq War veteran, received permission from the secretary of the Navy to file his candidacy. However, Leming can’t actively campaign until his active duty ends on May 1st.

WA-01: This seat isn’t on anyone’s radar, but Republican businessman James Watkins recently released an internal poll, conducted by Moore Information, showing him trailing Democrat Jay Inslee by 41-27.

WI-03: Is this what state Sen. Dan Kapanke signed up for when he decided to run for Congress against Democrat Ron Kind? Kapanke jumped into the race with much fanfare in the anticipation that Kind would bail on the race to run for Governor. That didn’t happen, and now Kapanke is facing a primary from ex-banker Bruce Evers, who has some truly wild ideas on constraining government spending.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio seemed to beat Charlie Crist to the punch on calling for repeal of the health care reform bill passed over the weekend, but now the allegedly-moderate Crist is getting in on the act too, saying he opposes the entire bill and supports the lawsuit by Republican AGs (including Florida’s Bill McCollum) against the package.

• KY-Sen: I really can’t decide who I’d rather have in my corner. Rand Paul has the backing of lots of crackpots with computers and open wallets, as he had another online moneybomb yesterday to the tune of $262K. Trey Grayson, on the other hand, has the backing of establishment favorite… Dick Cheney?

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: Earlier in the day, there were rumors that the state GOP in New York was desperately trying to get someone from the GOP field against Kirsten Gillibrand (which doesn’t have any top-tier talent, but at least has a bunch of warm bodies) to switch over to the even more unenviable task of facing off against Chuck Schumer, where they’ve got nobody. Their favored candidate for that job seemed to be former Bush spokesperson Dan Senor. Maybe that rubbed Senor the wrong way, or maybe there’s more to the story, but either way, that changed by mid-day today, as Senor suddenly said he not only wasn’t running against Schumer but not running for anything, period, saying the timing wasn’t right for him. (Well, maybe they’ll have better luck getting David Malpass to switch over.)

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): More up-and-down numbers from Franklin & Marshall this month, as their latest look at the Senate race finds Pat Toomey beating Arlen Specter 33-29 among RVs. Last month, Specter (currently at a terrible 30/45 favorable) led by the same 33-29 margin. (Recall that for the last couple months, F&M was releasing separate numbers for RVs and LVs. They seem to have dropped that unwieldy formulation in favor of RVs only, for now.) They find Toomey beating Joe Sestak 27-19 in the general, Specter beating Sestak 32-12, and in the forgotten GOP primary, Toomey defeating pro-life activist Peg Luksik 30-4. They do only the primaries in the slow-to-take-shape Governor’s race, finding Dan Onorato leading among Dems at 11, followed by Jack Wagner at 7, Joe Hoeffel at 5, and Anthony Williams at 4. Tom Corbett leads state Rep. Sam Rohrer 28-4 on the GOP side.

• UT-Sen: Last night was caucus night in Utah, where precincts chose delegates to the state convention which may or may not be Bob Bennett’s Waterloo. It’s hard to gauge, at this point, how things turned out for Bennett last night; the convention, which will determine whether he can avoid (or even make it to) a primary will be real proof. With filings closed in Utah, Democrats left a lot of seats unchallenged in the dark-red legislature, leaving 15 of 75 House seats and 2 of 15 Senate seats without Ds.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi was spotted in DC yesterday to meet with Michael Steele about a possible Senate run. He isn’t expected to make a decision until close to the June 11 primary, though (which seems odd, since he’d be basically starting from scratch at that point to go against Patty Murray’s mammoth war chest).

• IL-10: Bob Dold doesn’t need this. Turns out that Dold, who cozied up to the teabaggers in his primary run and touted his opposition to abortion (in order to squeak past moderate state Rep. Beth Coulson), has turned on a dime and is now calling himself “pro-choice” and “a fiscal conservative and social moderate” in order to run against Dan Seals in the general in this D+6 district.

• MA-10: Republican flavor-of-the-month Scott Brown has weighed in on the GOP primary in the open seat in the 10th, not coincidentally the district where he fared the best in the special election. And he chose new over old, opting for state Rep. Jeff Perry instead of long-ago state Treasurer Joe Malone.

• MI-01: Connie Saltonstall’s primary challenge to Bart Stupak may have lost some of its raison d’etre over the weekend, but it’s still proceeding full speed ahead with some new supporters that may be able to make it rain money for her: Planned Parenthood and NARAL’s PACs. NOW had previously endorsed Saltonstall as well.

• NJ-12: Scott Sipperelle, the random businessman running against Rush Holt in the D+5 12th, apparently has money to burn as he’s already hitting the TV airwaves, with an ad blasting Holt for his health care vote. It’s a cable buy, though (in case you were having visions of him blanketing the NYC and Philly markets), so it could be a tiny expenditure aimed at getting free media for all we know.

• SD-AL: Even with Scott Hildebrand having folded his hand quickly on a threatened Stephanie Herseth Sandlin primary challenge, it sounds like another less-known Dem is getting in on it. Rapid City doctor Kevin Weiland is sounding out a run.

• VA-05: “We’ve given the word ‘mob’ a bad name.” The gas line at the Perriello household was mysteriously cut, after Rep. Tom Perriello’s gutsy HCR vote. Um, oooops… that was the Bo Perriello household, as several local teabaggers mistakenly posted the Congressman’s brother’s address on their websites and urged protesters to stop by for a friendly visit. The guy who posted the address (and refused to take it down after finding out it was the wrong Perriello) is now publicly “shocked” that one of his ilk would resort to violence. Oh, and the FBI is investigating. Tom Perriello, on the other hand, displayed only sangfroid, saying “If the worst thing that happens is that special-interest groups spend millions of dollars against me and my most ardent opponents organize against me, it’s hardly a ‘cry me a river’ moment – as long as people act civil and within the law.”

• WV-01: In the choice between conservadem and even-more-conservadem in the Democratic primary in the 1st, it’s becoming pretty clear which one is which: state GOP chair Douglas McKinney praised Alan Mollohan’s opponent state Sen. Mike Oliverio, saying he “has always been a conservative guy. He votes with the Republican on committees. We’ve joked for years he needs to come over to the party who thinks like he does.”

• HCR: Are some of the saner GOP members of Congress starting to come to their senses as the fog of war starts to dissipate? (Or are they just seeing the shift in the polls and engaging in some pre-emptive ass-covering?) The oft-blustery Rep. Pete King is urging his fellow GOPers to “get constructive” and “stop demonizing” health care reform and the Dems. And Chuck Grassley, almost single-handedly responsible for bogging the bill down and giving legs to the “Death Panel” lie in the August of Dems’ discontent, is now happily talking up his own positive contributions to the bill, regarding tax-exempt hospitals.

• DNC: The DNC is wheeling out a seven-figure budget for running ads in the wake of health care’s passage. It’s two-pronged, with attack ads against vulnerable Republicans who voted “no” (I guess the “voted no” part is redundant): Mark Kirk, Jim Gerlach, Dave Reichert, Mike Castle, and Joe Cao. And “thank you” ads are planned for vulnerable Dems, tentatively including John Boccieri, Dennis Cardoza, Brad Ellsworth, Paul Hodes, Tim Walz, Bob Etheridge, Tom Perriello, Leonard Boswell, Betsy Markey, and Gerry Connolly.

• SARAH’s List: Shortly after tweeting for her supporters not to retreat, but RELOAD, Sarah Palin’s website posted a map with gunsights targeting 20 Representatives for her supporters to shoot. Or to work to defeat for re-election, I suppose. It’s pretty much all the districts that went for McCain in 2008 and where there was a “yes” on HCR, without much regard for the race’s actual vulnerability or whether it’s an open seat: AR-02, AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-03, CO-04, FL-02, FL-24, IN-08, IN-09, ND-AL, OH-06, OH-16, PA-03, PA-10, SC-05, TN-06, VA-05, WV-01, and WV-03.

• Teabaggers: Quinnipiac released another poll showing the peril and promise of the teabagger movement for the GOP, as seen in the contrast between the basic generic ballot (44 R, 39 D) and one with a third-party element thrown in (36 D, 25 R, 15 T). Various commenters, like Ed Kilgore and TPM’s Zachary Roth are paying close attention to the poll, wondering, as they’ve done in the past, if there really even is a new-and-different “Tea Party” movement or if it’s just a new name for the most-extreme, riled-up part of the Republican Party that’s always been there (through the militia movements of the 90s and the Birchers of the 60s).

• NRCC: The NRCC claims to have pulled in $7 million last night at their annual fundraising dinner. That’s a lot of scratch, but bear in mind much of that’s in “pledges,” mostly from House members, some of whom haven’t had a good track record of helping the NRCC in the past.

• Census: Two neat Census-related maps worth checking out. One is a constantly-updated real-time map at the Census website which shows the response rates by state and municipality so far. (While the national return rate so far is 16%, the best municipality return rate so far is the civic minded folks of Westside, Iowa at 74%. And despite the popular image of it being full of paranoid militia types living in the hills who would rather use fiat money than fill out a Census form, Montana has the best return rate of any state, at 33%.) The other map is much sadder, courtesy of the Prison Policy Initiative: it shows state-by-state how much distortion of districts occurs through the counting of prisoners where they’re incarcerated rather than where they’re actually from.

Here he goes again on his own – goin’ down the only road he’s ever known.

AZ-Sen (R) (3/16, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

John McCain (R-inc): 48 (53)

J.D. Hayworth (R): 41 (31)

Other: 3 (3)

Undecided: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4%)

AZ-Gov (R) (3/17, likely voters, 1/20 in parens):

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 20 (29)

Dean Martin (R): 21 (31)

Buz Mills (R): 19 (n/a)

John Munger (R): 10 (7)

Other: 7 (8)

Undecided: 23 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-Gov (3/15, likely voters, 2/15 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 40 (43)

Meg Whitman (R): 40 (43)

Other: 6 (6)

Undecided: 14 (8)

Jerry Brown (D): 42 (46)

Steve Poizner (R): 27 (34)

Other: 13 (7)

Undecided: 18 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Sen (3/15, likely voters, 2/15 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (46)

Carly Fiorina (R): 40 (42)

Other: 4 (7)

Undecided: 10 (5)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (45)

Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)

Other: 6 (4)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (47)

Chuck DeVore (R): 40 (42)

Other: 4 (6)

Undecided: 9 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (37)

John Oxendine (R): 41 (45)

Other: 6 (7)

Undecided: 11 (10)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (37)

Nathan Deal (R): 43 (43)

Other: 5 (7)

Undecided: 13 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (36)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (45)

Other: 5 (5)

Undecided: 14 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (37)

Eric Johnson (R): 38 (37)

Other: 6 (8)

Undecided: 16 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (3/17, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52 (49)

Generic Dem: 31 (36)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 2/8 in parens):

Jack Wagner (D): 33 (28)

Tom Corbett (R): 46 (49)

Other: 6 (5)

Undecided: 16 (17)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 28 (29)

Tom Corbett (R): 49 (51)

Other: 5 (5)

Undecided: 18 (15)

Dan Onorato (D): 29 (26)

Tom Corbett (R): 46 (52)

Other: 7 (5)

Undecided: 17 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (D) (3/15, likely voters, 2/8 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (51)

Joe Sestak (D): 37 (36)

Other: 5 (4)

Undecided: 9 (9)

(MoE: ±5%)

WI-Gov (3/16, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (42)

Mark Neumann (R): 46 (44)

Other: 4 (4)

Undecided: 8 (10)

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (40)

Scott Walker (R): 48 (49)

Other: 2 (1)

Undecided: 8 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (3/16, likely voters, 2/17 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45 (43)

Tommy Thompson (R): 47 (48)

Other: 3 (6)

Undecided: 4 (4)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 51 (47)

Dave Westlake (R): 35 (37)

Other: 5 (6)

Undecided: 10 (10)

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 49 (47)

Terrence Wall (R): 40 (39)

Other: 3 (6)

Undecided: 9 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

{First, a quick plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

As we await the historic vote on health care reform, it’s important to remember that we’re just ten days away from the end of the first fundraising quarter of 2010.  The fundraising totals reported in this quarter will be pivotal to determining the tenor of many races for the rest of the year.  If there is any time to contribute, now is the time!

Please head over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and contribute whatever you are able to these terrific Democratic candidates for Senate.

Democrat	Currently At	End-of-Quarter Goal	Distance to Goal
Kendrick Meek	$25	$300	$275
Bill Halter	$445	$750	$305
Joe Sestak	$1,320	$1,600	$280
Paul Hodes	$1,447	$1,700	$253
Robin Carnahan	$1,163	$1,400	$237

Remember, the contribution you can make isn’t just a donation to a single candidate or political campaign.  It’s an investment against Republican obstruction (and conservaDem enabling) and an investment toward achieving that more perfect union.

AZ-Sen: Another Democrat, businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden, is taking a look at the Arizona Senate race. Walden, a former staffer for Bill Bradley and Pat Moynihan, seems like she might be able to bring a good chunk of her own cash to the table (at the very least, she seems well-connected). Right now, the highest-profile Dem in race is Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman.

NV-Sen: Coming home to roost? One of those DOJ subpoenas in the investigation of John Ensign has landed on the doorstep of the NRSC. Ensign, of course, was chair of the organization during its disastrous 2008-08 campaign cycle.

PA-Sen: Reid Wilson takes a look at the divergent poll numbers between Susquehanna (Toomey +6) and Research 2000 (Specter +6). Susquehanna relies on voter lists and doesn’t weight; R2K uses random-digit dialing and does weight.

IA-Gov: I guess this is a little bit of good news for Gov. Chet Culver – the gadflyish Jonathan Narcisse won’t challenge him in the Democratic primary.

NY-Gov: I guess we should tag all David Paterson stories as “News of the Weird.” Yesterday, he bizarrely claimed that he was the NYT’s source for the exceptionally damaging stories about his administration which have led to the resignation of many top staffers and many, many calls for his resignation. Now the Times is saying “not so” – that Paterson was most definitely not their source. So, so strange.

GA-07: GOP state Sen. Don Balfour, who was considered a leading contender for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. John Linder, has ended his campaign. Balfour also indicated that he won’t seek re-election to the state Senate. (JL)

PA-07: Heh – GOPer Pat Meehan’s motion to dismiss Dem Bryan Lentz’s challenge to his ballot petition signatures was rendered moot almost the instant after he filed it. Meehan tried to claim that Lentz hadn’t followed proper court procedures in serving him with notice of the challenge, but the court issued its own order saying that Lentz still has plenty of time to do so. Whoops.

IL-Lt. Gov: Gov. Pat Quinn apparently has a preferred choice for a running mate, state Sen. Susan Garrett, who as luck would have it is not up for re-election herself this fall. The IL Dem state party will pick a replacement on March 27th.

Healthcare: Greg Sargent has a source at the AFL-CIO who says that leaders of the umbrella organization’s member unions will be making “direct appeals” to the following Dems, implicitly backed up by the threat of a primary or third-party challenges:

Dennis Cardoza, Jim Costa, Daniel Lipinski, Stephen Lynch, Michael Michaud, James Oberstar, Steve Dreihaus, Charlie Wilson, Marcy Kaptur, John Boccieri, Zack Space, Tom Perriello, Jason Altmire, Christopher Carney, Paul Kanjorski, Tim Holden, Jerry Costello, Alan Mollohan, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkemper

Polltopia: Speaking of voter lists (see PA-Sen item above), Harry Enten at Pollster.com chides the NYT for claiming that it doesn’t publish polls which sample from voter lists (like that Chamber of Commerce healthcare poll). Yet on the very same day it made that claim, the Times cited the results of the recent CA-Sen Field poll in another article… and Field uses, well, voter lists. At SSP, we have a simpler rule: Don’t publish concern troll bullshit.

NRCC: Classic – the NRCC is touting ads its running against Dems undecided on healthcare, but they are spending just $3,900 per district. That gets you, what, a 30-second spot at 3am on the Smithsonian Channel, sandwiched between infomercials for the Flowbee and the Ronco Showtime Rotisserie? Props to the Hotline for unmasking this (typical) chicanery.

Passings: Memphis Rep. Steve Cohen gave a tribute yesterday on the floor of the House to the life of SSP hero and Big Star frontman Alex Chilton, who sadly passed away on Wednesday. (JL)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: As we mentioned on the front page yesterday, Andrew Romanoff won the Democratic primary precinct-level caucuses last night; the final tally, percentage-wise, was 51-42 (with 7% uncommitted) over Michael Bennet (who, by the way, hit the airwaves with the first TV spot yesterday, a decidedly anti-Washington ad). Things were actually much closer on the GOP side, where it looks like ultra-conservative Weld County DA Ken Buck is actually leading establishment fave Jane Norton by a paper-thin margin (37.9% to 37.7%). Of course, the activist-dominated straw polls are going to be Buck’s strong suit and his strength here may not translate as well to the broader GOP electorate, but he performed well enough to show that he’s in this for the long haul. (A similar dynamic played out in the Governor’s race, where ex-Rep. Scott McInnis easily beat teabagger Dan Maes, 61-39, although Maes has polled in the single digits out in reality.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s monthly poll of the North Carolina Senate race general election shows little change, with Richard Burr (with a 35/37 approval) still winning in very humdrum fashion. Burr leads Elaine Marshall 41-36 (a positive trend, as she was down by 10 last month, although she was also within 5 of Burr in December). He also leads both Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis 43-32, and leads Generic Dem only 41-39. With low familiarity for all three Dems (Marshall’s the best-known, but even she generates 71% “not sure”s), PPP’s Tom Jensen expects the race to tighten once they actually have a nominee.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some food for thought on why Dino Rossi has retreated back to the private sector and has seemed reluctant to come back out to play, despite the NRSC’s constant entreaties: his financial links to Seattle real estate developer Michael Mastro, whose local real estate empire collapsed in late 2008, leaving hundreds of investors out to dry.

• MA-Gov: Here’s more evidence that Tim Cahill, a Democrat until a few months ago, is heading off to the right to try and claim some of Republican Charlie Baker’s turf for his independent challenge to Deval Patrick: he fessed up to having voted for John McCain and is attacking Massachusetts’s universal health care plan (which even Scott Brown didn’t have a beef with, during his campaign) and saying that if the nation took the same approach it would be bankrupt “in four years.”

• NM-Gov: Oooops. Pete Domenici Jr. got a little presumptuous prior to the state’s Republican convention, issuing fliers touting his “great success” and his getting put on the ballot. Turns out neither happened — his 5% showing was last place, not a great success, and didn’t qualify him for the ballot either (he can still do so by gathering signatures).

• NY-Gov: This may be a tea leaf that Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy is gearing up to challenge ex-Rep. Rick Lazio for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. He hired a Republican consultant, Michael Hook, to help with preparations. Meanwhile, will the last person left in David Paterson‘s employ please turn the lights out? Another top staffer, press secretary Marissa Shorenstein just hit the exits today.

• PA-Gov, PA-Sen: Could ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel be knocked off the Democratic gubernatorial primary ballot? That’s what Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato is trying to make happen, as his team is challenging the validity of Hoeffel’s 7,632 ballot petitions. In order to qualify for the ballot, candidates need 2,000 valid signatures, including at least 100 from 10 different counties. (JL) Hoeffel’s not the only one; Joe Sestak‘s also challenging signatures in the Senate primary. Sestak’s target isn’t Arlen Specter, though, but rather Joseph Vodvarka, a Pittsburgh-area businessman who was a surprise last-minute filer and is the primary’s only third wheel. Sestak, no doubt, is worried that Vodvarka could peel off enough anti-Specter votes to throw a very close election.

• HI-01: Here’s a sign of life from the seemingly placid Colleen Hanabusa campaign; she just got the endorsement of the Hawaii State Teachers’ Association. (Not that it was likely they’d endorse Ed Case, but it’s still important for GOTV.)

• NY-13: Politico’s Ben Smith reported that Republican state Senator Andrew Lanza was taking a second look at the race in the 13th, now that the possibility of the Working Families Party withdrawing its support for Rep. Mike McMahon (if he votes against health care reform) could make a GOP challenge easier in the face of a divided left. The NRCC denied having reached out to Lanza; Lanza confirmed, though, that they had, but said that he was still unlikely to get in the race, preferring to focus on taking back GOP control of the state Senate. While the two GOPers in the race, Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, both have had some fundraising success, Lanza would be a definite upgrade for the GOP in the unlikely event he runs.

• PA-06: Another bummer for Doug Pike, who seems to be losing as many endorsements as he’s gaining these days. State Rep. Josh Shapiro, who briefly explored a bid for U.S. Senate last year, has officially switched his endorsement from Pike to “neutral”. (JL)

• SC-03: With rivals Rex Rice and Jeff Duncan (both state Reps.) having gotten the lion’s share of the endorsements and money, state Sen. Shane Massey appears ready to drop out of the GOP primary field in the 3rd. It looks like it’ll be a two-man fight between the Huckabee-backed Rice and CfG-backed Duncan.

• VA-05: I’ll repeat all the usual caveats about how straw polls reflect the most extreme and engaged activists, not the broader electorate, bla bla bla, but there’s just no good way for state Sen. Robert Hurt to spin his showing at the Franklin County GOP Republican Womens’ straw poll. The establishment pick drew 11.6% of the vote, while self-funding teabagger Jim McKelvey grabbed 51%.

• WA-03: The Dick Army (aka FreedomWorks) has weighed in with a rare primary endorsement in a rather unexpected place: the GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. They endorsed David Castillo, the financial advisor and former Bush administration underling who stayed in the race despite state Rep. Jaime Herrera’s entry. Here’s the likely explanation: Castillo actually used to work for FreedomWorks’ predecessor organization, Citizens for a Sound Economy. Still, that’s a boost for Castillo, who’s been faring pretty well on the endorsements front against the establishment pick Herrera (and a boost for Dems, who’d no doubt like to see a brutal GOP primary). Meanwhile, on the Dem side, state Sen. Craig Pridemore is holding outgoing Rep. Brian Baird’s feet to the fire to get him to switch his vote to “yes” on health care reform; primary opponent Denny Heck has avoided taking much of a position on HCR.

• Census: Here’s some interesting background on how the Census protects respondents’ privacy. Not only are individual responses sealed for 72 years, but the Census intentionally adds “noise” that camouflages individuals whose particular combination of data would make them unique in some way and thus not be anonymous, at least to someone seeking them out (for instance, they cite the hypothetical only 65-year-old married woman attending college in North Dakota). (P.S.: You probably got your form in the last day or two. Please fill it out!)

AR-Sen: As Reid Wilson says, here’s something you don’t see every day – at least, not in a Dem primary. Blanche Lincoln is attacking the labor unions who are supporting her opponent, Bill Halter. Lincoln is also doing her best to warm the hearts of the faithful by taking John Boehner’s side in the latest kerfuffle over House procedural tactics with regard to healthcare reform.

CO-Sen: Dem Sen. Michael Bennet has his first TV ad up, a $300K buy in Denver and Colorado Springs. Greg Giroux suggests that the timing is deliberate, since Bennet will be looking to blunt any possible momentum Romanoff might have received coming out of last night’s precinct caucuses.

FL-Sen: All the cool kids have already done it, which means anyone getting on the Marco Rubio bandwagon at this late date is just a fair-weather fan. Still, GOP Rep. Tom Price is chair of the Republican Study Committee, which is the Borg collective mothership of right-wing crazy, so this gives Rubio the Good Wingnut Seal of Approval™. Resistance is futile.

MA-Sen: That didn’t take long – newly-minted GOP Sen. Scott Brown will be hosting his first inside-the-beltway fundraiser, at $1000 a head. Of course, it’ll be at the offices of lobbying firm Duane Morris. My advice to Scott Brown is to hold lots and lots of events with lobbyists. Also, become the anti-healthcare frontman for your party. Thanks for helping out with that, Mitch McConnell!

NV-Sen: Memo to reporters: Please include information about the size of ad buys (especially for attack ads) when you’re writing them up. There are too many tiny buys made solely for the purpose of spinning the media. We the people need to know if we’re being spun, too.

NY-Sen-B: Republican ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi officially offered himself up as a sacrificial lamb entered the race to take on Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand yesterday.

PA-Sen: Arlen Specter snagged another valuable endorsement yesterday, this time from the 191,000-strong Pennsylvania State Education Association. (JL)

WI-Sen: A source close to Tommy Thompson’s jowls says that the former governor is “50-50” on whether he will play Droopy Dog in the upcoming remake.

SC-Gov: It’s payback time – Willard Mitt Romney is endorsing Mark Sanford protégé and state Rep. Nikki Haley for governor. Haley, as you’ve probably gathered, had endorsed Mittens in 2008 for the key SC primary. Other presidential wannabes have also returned the favor to their respective buddies; Reid Wilson has the full scorecard.

AZ-08: GOPer Jonathan Paton, who recently resigned from the state Senate to challenge Rep. Gabby Giffords, was added to the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Three other Republicans are seeking their party’s nod, including one candidate already on the Young Guns list, Marine Corps vet Jesse Kelly. Paton is almost certainly the establishment favorite, though.

LA-02: It’s hard to know what to make of the GOP’s attitude toward Joe Cao’s seat. On the one hand, they let him get mixed up with the sketchmeisters at BMW Direct. On the other, John Boehner just held a $500/person fundraiser for Cao last night on Capitol Hill. But then on the flipside, it looks like Cao will flip-flop and vote against healthcare this time, which will surely doom him in November. So why waste the money on him? Perhaps GOP bigs figure that buying Cao off will pay dividends when the party is able to point to unanimous opposition to the healthcare bill.

ND-AL: The campaign manager for former state House Majority Leader Rick Berg, a leading challenger to Earl Pomeroy, resigned yesterday, after misusing a state Republican Party email list and lying about it.

NY-13: Andy Stern wasn’t kidding. The SEIU is running a full-page ad in today’s Staten Island Advance urging Rep. Mike McMahon to vote in favor of healthcare reform. Greg Sargent has a copy of the full ad (PDF). This ad could presage a primary or third-party challenge should McMahon vote no, something Stern has already threatened.

SD-AL: Steve Hildebrand, a top Obama campaign official, says he’s considering a challenge to Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Democratic primary, particularly if she votes against healthcare.

DNC: This is Not News. DNC chair Tim Kaine says that Organizing for America will help Dems who vote “yes” on healthcare reform… but of course doesn’t say that he’ll withhold help from Dems who vote “no.” I wouldn’t expect him to, hence why this is Not News.

Healthcare: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce absolutely, definitely, most assuredly is not not NOT concern trolling House Democrats on the upcoming healthcare vote. They have our best interests at heart, and spent money on polling because they genuinely care about us.

Much more interesting poll numbers on healthcare can be found here. It turns out that the public was evenly divided on Medicare before it became law, too. Now, of course, the program is unassailable.

Kentucky: A bill to let independents vote in Democratic or Republican primaries died in the KY House.

WATN: I guess with Eric Massa stealing the limelight these days, Mark Foley feels emboldened to make his return to DC. He’ll be a guest at one of those unduly cozy black-tie beltway affairs, the Radio and TV Correspondents’ Dinner.

SSP: I’m not done begging. We’re at 1,386 Twitter followers. SO close to 1,400. Make it happen. Pretty please?

Our twice-daily digests are also open threads for any campaign-related news you might have. Interesting/helpful links always appreciated!

AR-Sen: State Sen. Gilbert Baker is jumping all over GOP primary opponent Rep. John Boozman for his extensive travels abroad on the taxpayer dime. In a statement, Baker promised that, as senator, he will be sure to visit Paris, London, and England – all towns in Arkansas.

CA-Sen: NOM, NOM, NOM. The haters at the National Organization for (Heterosexual-Only) Marriage have launched an ad campaign attacking Republican ex-Rep. Tom Campbell for supporting gay marriage. CQ describes it as a statewide ad buy, but at only $275,000, that doesn’t get you very much in California. Meanwhile, Carlyfornia has drunk the winger kool-aid – while she supported cap-and-trade when stumping for John McCain two years ago, now she’s against it. Of course.

FL-Sen: Heh – PPP asked Floridians who their favorite governors are out of the last five to hold office. Only 4% of Republicans answered Charlie Crist – fewer than the number who named either Dem Bob Graham or Dem Lawton Chiles.

PA-Sen: Republican pollster Susquehanna has GOPer Pat Toomey up over Arlen Specter by 42-36, in contrast to recent polls by Quinnipiac and Research 2000 showing Specter leading by that margin. Susquehanna didn’t poll the Dem primary, though, and more weirdly, they didn’t even test Joe Sestak against Toomey. Huh?

FL-22: Toward the bottom of an interesting, in-depth look at Base Connect (the sketchy GOP consultants formerly known as BMW Direct), Dave Weigel has a good catch. It turns out that the much-hyped vet Allen West is also a BMW client. He’s raised $1.2 million this cycle, an extraordinary sum for a challenger, but check out that burn rate – he’s spent over $500,000 so far. His opponent, Rep. Ron Klein, has only spent $95K. West still has a lot of cash on hand, but this revelation changes the picture somewhat.

NY-13: SEIU chief Andy Stern says that his organization will back independent candidacies against House Dems who vote against healthcare. It seems that Stern would prefer to challenge wayward Dems in primaries, but many filing deadlines have already passed. However, the one actual “nay” vote Stern cites, Rep. Mike McMahon, serves in New York, where the filing deadline does not close for quite some time. (And as per yesterday’s bullet, the Working Families Party said they won’t give their line to McMahon either.)

PA-06: The Pennsylvania SEIU, which just endorsed Arlen Specter, also gave their backing to Dem Doug Pike in his primary against Manan Trivedi.

Census: I received my 2010 Census form last night. Have you gotten yours yet?

Congress: Congress.org takes a look at former staffers who now occupy seats of their own on the Hill and notes that their ranks have been increasing since World War II. At least six staffers are running for office this year.

Lulz: Hard to believe, but disgraced and discredited “pollster” Strategic Vision claims to have undertaken a survey of the Georgia governor’s race. Even sadder, a flack for outgoing Gov. Sonny Perdue actually emailed around the “results” to reporters. Still waiting for that lawsuit against Nate Silver.

Teabagging: Virginia Thomas, the wife of none other than Sup. Ct. Justice Clarence Thomas, has formed a new lobbying company to exploit capitalize on teabagger sentiment. The LAT notes:

As a 501(c)(4) nonprofit, Liberty Central can raise unlimited amounts of corporate money and largely avoid disclosing its donors.

Because of a recent Supreme Court decision, Citizens United vs. Federal Election Commission, the group may also spend corporate money freely to advocate for or against candidates for office.

Justice Thomas was part of the 5-4 majority in that case.

SSP: We have 287 fans on le Facebook so far. Pretty please take us to 300? I ain’t too proud to beg.