Tag: PA-Sen

• CT-Sen: Following his loss in the CT-Gov primary after leading the polls almost all the way, I hadn’t heard much discussion about Ned Lamont making a repeat run against Joe Lieberman for the 2012 Senate race. Lamont confirms that, saying he’s “strongly disinclined” to try again.

• FL-Sen: Here’s a dilemma for temp Sen. George LeMieux, as he gave his farewell speech from the Senate floor. Acknowledge the man without whom he’d be utterly unknown and thus not in a position to run again for Senate in 2012… or invoke said man, whose name is utterly mud in Florida GOP circles, thus reminding everyone of those connections that can only hurt in a 2012 primary? In the end, basic human decency prevailed, and LeMieux thanked Charlie Crist for appointing him.

• ME-Sen: This is pretty big news, as everyone has been treating newly-elected Gov. Paul LePage’s imprimatur as a make or break for Olympia Snowe’s hopes in a GOP primary in 2012. LePage, of course, was the tea party choice in the primary, and his say-so would go a long way toward either encouraging or discouraging a teabagger challenge to Snowe. LePage just came out with a statement of support for Snowe in the primary, saying he’d back her in the face of a possible primary challenge.

• MO-Sen: Sarah Steelman continues to rack up support from the GOP’s far-right, as she girds for a possible GOP primary showdown against ex-Sen. Jim Talent. Steelman met with Jim DeMint, the Senate’s de facto kingmaker of the tea party set, and those involved expect DeMint’s Senate Conservative Fund to back Steelman shortly (which would be his first endorsement of the 2012 cycle).

• PA-Sen: Moran gets brain? Perhaps sensing the steep uphill climb of a challenge against the Casey name brand in Pennsylvania in a presidential year, random rich guy John Moran has done an about-face on a threatened possible Senate run that first emerged last week. Another central Pennsylvanian, though, state Sen. Jake Corman, seems to be interested in taking on Bob Casey Jr.

• UT-Sen: In case there was any doubt about Orrin Hatch running again — in his 70s and facing a likely difficult primary/convention — well, he is. He released a statement this morning saying “I intend to run, and I intend to win.” That comes in the face of the formation of a new leadership PAC by Rep. Jason Chaffetz, which would likely point to stepped-up fundraising efforts in the face of a intra-party challenge. (Hatch is sitting on $2.32 million CoH, while Chaffetz has $179K. If the targeted audience isn’t all Utahns but a few thousand nuts at the state convention, though, money is less of an issue.)

• IN-Gov: Soon-to-be-ex-Sen. Evan Bayh is issuing something of a timeline regarding whether or not he runs for his old job as Governor again in 2012. Bayh says he’ll make a decision by the end of the year, and is saying it’s a “possibility but [not] a probability.” (Rep. Baron Hill and Evansville mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel are other fallback options.)There’s no timeline, though, from Rep. Mike Pence, who probably would be the strongest candidate the GOP could put forth, but seems more interested in going straight for the Presidency. One GOPer who isn’t waiting for Pence’s decision is Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman, who has moved forward on fundraising although she hasn’t officially declared anything. Soon-to-be-Rep. Todd Rokita warns not to underestimate Skillman.

• MN-Gov: This is kind of a moot point in view of his concession this morning, but in case you’re wondering what suddenly motivated Tom Emmer to drop his challenge to Mark Dayton and move on, this was probably the last straw: yesterday the Minnesota Supreme Court denied his petition asking for all counties to perform a reconciliation of number of voters with number of ballots cast. With the recount already done, the reconciliation would have been the only practical way of even stringing this thing out for a while longer, let alone finding an extra 9,000 votes.

• MO-Gov: In marked contrast to the recent PPP poll giving Jay Nixon a clear edge, Republican Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (now looking more like a candidate than ever) is pointing to an internal poll by American Viewpoint taken way back in late September that gives him a 47-38 lead over Nixon. The poll finds Nixon still popular, though, with 51% approval.

• ND-Gov: Today was the first day on the job for North Dakota’s new Governor, ex-Lt. Gov. Jack Dalrymple, who took over as John Hoeven resigned in order to join the Senate soon. Hoeven is the first-ever North Dakota Governor to resign voluntarily. Taking over as Lt. Gov. is ex-US Attorney Drew Wrigley. Dalrymple will be watched carefully as to what happens in 2012: he could either run for election to a full term, or move over to a Senate run against Kent Conrad.

• MN-08: Newly-elected Rep. Chip Cravaack will have one of the tougher re-elects of any of the new House Republicans (he’s in a D+3 district that includes the Dem stronghold of Duluth), but one of the bigger-name Dems in the district is saying he won’t be the challenger. State Sen. Tom Bakk (one of the 5,589,358,587,568,120 people who ran for the DFL gubernatorial nomination this year) is staying where he is, especially since he’s about to become minority leader.

• GA-St. House: One more D-to-R party switcher to report, and it’s a fairly big name within the confines of the Georgia legislature: Doug McKillip, who was previously #2 among Democrats. Interestingly, he’s not from a dark-red rural district but represents the college town of Athens, and he says he’ll be better able to agitate for the University’s needs from within the majority… although, that, of course, would depend on getting re-elected again from that (presumably blue) district.

• FL-Sen: This probably isn’t the way that GOP state Senate President Mike Haridopolos, acting very candidate-ish this week, wanted to kick off a Senate bid. He just had to settle with the state’s Commission on Ethics, admitting to a litany of campaign finance violations for failing to properly fill out financial disclosure statements. As far as a penalty goes, though, expect a slap on the wrist; the state Senate’s Rules Committee, rather than the Commission, actually assigns the penalty, and Rules is now led by Haridopolos’s GOP Senate President predecessor, John Thrasher.

• PA-Sen: There’s word of a rather Ron Johnson-style random rich guy interested in taking on Bob Casey Jr. in 2012: John Moran, who owns a logistics and warehousing company in central Pennsylvania and is willing to spend some of his own money to get elected. In other words, another federal-government-hater whose riches are largely dependent on an infrastructure put in place by the federal government (in this case, ex-Rep. Bud Shuster, who’s pretty single-handedly responsible for the creation of central Pennsylvania’s luxurious web of highways and the rise of trucking as the backbone of that area’s economy). Also, if you want to look back at a comparison of the 2010 Senate race vs. the 2006 Senate race (where Casey was elected), Greg Giroux has a very interesting spreadsheet showing which counties had the biggest drops in vote percentages and raw vote numbers.

• RI-Sen: We mentioned a few weeks ago that John Robitaille, last seen coming close in the gubernatorial contest won by indie Lincoln Chafee, was on the wish list for a GOP Senate bid against Sheldon Whitehouse, and now he’s saying out loud that he’s “seriously considering” it. (Of course, Robitaille’s closeness mostly had to do with a split in the left-of-center vote between Chafee and Dem candidate Frank Caprio, but let’s just let the NRSC think they can win this one in hopes they spend some money here.)

• UT-Sen: It looks like Orrin Hatch is not only running for re-election in 2012 (where retirement had been considered a possibility for the septuagenarian, no doubt facing a serious teabagging this cycle), but ramping up for a fierce fight at the state nominating convention (which is where Bob Bennett lost, not even making it to the primary). One of his key allies, state GOP party chair Dave Hansen, is reportedly about to resign from that position and start working directly for Hatch’s campaign.

• MN-Gov: Tom Emmer held a press conference today in the face of a winding-down recount where the numbers didn’t budge, and instead of throwing in the towel, he said he’s going to fight on to the end, and threatened to keep on fighting even after the end, alluding to the possibility of legal action over the ballot reconciliation issue (saying the recount was merely “a step in the process”). Meanwhile, seeking to be the ones wearing the white hats here, Mark Dayton’s team said they’ll withdraw all their remaining frivolous challenges. That’s a total of only 42 challenges, though, as more than 98% of the frivolous challenges came from Emmer’s team.

• NY-01: After another day of looking at challenged ballots, Tim Bishop continued to add to his lead. He netted another 12 votes, bringing his overall lead to 271 over Randy Altschuler. Challenges to a total of 174 ballots were dropped by both campaigns, leaving about 1,500.

• NY-15: Usually there isn’t much speculation that a Governor is about to run for a U.S. House seat, unless it’s an at-large state or the Governor has fallen way down the food chain. If you’re talking about David Paterson, he may have fallen even further down the food chain than that, though (into dogcatcher realm). At any rate, Paterson quashed any speculation that he would run for Charles Rangel’s seat (despite his dynastic links to the seat, as his dad, Basil Paterson, is a key ally to Rangel as two of the so-called “Gang of Four”). It’s not entirely clear that Rangel won’t still be running in 2012, considering how he seems to utterly lack the ‘shame’ gene, although Paterson suggested state Assemblyman Keith Wright and city councilor Inez Dickens as possible replacments.

• Committees: Both the NRSC and DSCC are starting the 2012 cycle from a place of parity: deep, deep in debt. The DSCC has $713K on hand and $6.7 million in debt, while the NRSC has $519K on hand and $6 million in debt. Even worse numbers are in the House: the DCCC has $19.4 million in debt and the NRCC has $12 million in debt.

• AZ-Sen: So, that anti-earmark stance from Republican leadership seemed to last a whole week or so, until everybody’s attention had moved onto something else (something about sharks attacking people in airport security lines, maybe). Jon Kyl just got a $200 million earmark to settle an Indian water rights case with the government. Kyl’s defense… and one we should expect to hear a lot from both sides of the aisle… is that it’s technically not an earmark (which seems to have a profanity-style you-know-it-when-you-see-it standard).

• CT-Sen: Joe Lieberman is hinting at an independent run as the preferred way forward out of his three-possible-ways-to-lose conundrum. In a recent interview, he said “I’ve enjoyed being an Independent so I guess that’s the most natural way to run, but I haven’t decided,” as well as “I don’t meet all the requirements of either party.” Other insiders, or at least the ones Politico is talking to, say that Lieberman’s choices at this point are essentially retiring or becoming a Republican. (One reason they cite is the recent collapse of the CfL “Party,” which failed to get the 1% needed to maintain its ballot place… although that overlooks the fact that the CfL was, several years ago, hijacked by waggish Lieberman opponents).

• FL-Sen: The first announced Republican candidate for the Senate in 2012 is both a Some Dude and a familiar face: college instructor Mike McCalister. If the name rings a bell, he got 10% in this year’s gubernatorial primary by virtue of not being either Rick Scott or Bill McCollum. As for temp Sen. George LeMieux, a reported possible candidate, his current status is still “no decisions yet,” albeit “I do feel a calling to serve.”

• KY-Sen: Here’s some pointless post-mortem about Kentucky, but it’s the first I’ve heard any major player from Team Blue say that the “Aqua Buddha” ad was a net liability for Jack Conway. Outgoing DSCC Bob Menendez said his main regret was not asking for better briefings about candidates’ ads, and he cited the anti-Rand Paul ad as a particular “killer.”

• PA-Sen: The first announced GOP candidate in Pennsylvania has also surfaced, and he’s also on the cusp between Some Dude and whatever’s one step higher than that. Marc Scaringi was a legislative aide to Rick Santorum back in the 1990s, and is currently a lawyer in Harrisburg. (The article also cites one other potential GOP challenger in addition to the usual Jim Gerlach/Charlie Dent suspects: incoming state House majority leader Mike Turzai, whom you might remember weighing and deciding against a PA-04 run in 2010.) As for Bob Casey Jr., he’s running again, although his main concern for the next year seems to be upping his low-key profile.

• NY-23: After making some waves yesterday with saying he was at least considering voting for John Boehner in the floor leadership vote, Bill Owens is now just saying he was “blowing off steam” and will vote for her as long as she promises to focus on jobs. (In other words, he probably got a call from leadership explaining the consequences.)

• CA-AG: Kind of a foregone conclusion at this point, given his 40,000 vote deficit, but Steve Cooley has just conceded the Attorney General’s race, with Democratic San Francisco DA and rising star Kamala Harris the victor.

• KY-AG: Here’s a surprise: after a few weeks of hype concerning a 2011 battle royale between Jack Conway and Trey Grayson for Attorney General, Grayson suddenly reversed course. Rather than run again for SoS, where GOPers were already lining up, he apparently won’t run for anything, other than the sweet embrace of the private sector.

• Chicago mayor: One more poll gives Rahm Emanuel a sizable edge in the Chicago mayoral race. He has 39% support in a Chicago Retail Merchants Association poll, followed by Carol Mosely Braun at 12, Gerry Chico at 9, Danny Davis at 7, and His Accidency, Roland Burris, at 2. The real question here seems to be whether Emanuel can win on Feb. 22 without a runoff (which would be Apr. 5).

• AR-St. House: Here’s an interesting situation in Arkansas, where Dems still control the state House (albeit with reduced numbers) but an unusual special election is already on tap. Democratic State Rep. Rick Saunders was apparently going to be given a pass to serve another two years despite being term-limited out, because the guy who won the seat in November, GOPer Keith Crass, did so despite being dead. He beat Dem Larry Williams despite dying during the early voting period. Now Saunders says he’ll resign in early January so a special election can be held (in April at the earliest).

• Washington: It looks like all the counting in Washington is finally done, with turnout a whopping 71% (thanks to the mail-in nature of the election, which goes a long way toward evaporating the ‘enthusiasm gap’). Patty Murray wound up winning by just shy of 5%, right where UW’s polling put it, compared with the out-of-state robo-pollsters who saw a much closer race. Dems still control both chambers of the state legislature by decent (but not supermajority anymore) margins, after losing 4 seats in the 49-seat Senate and 5 in the 98-seat House. Three races where the Dem trails (Randy Gordon in the Senate, and Dawn Morrell and Kelli Linville in the House) are apparently going to recount, though, by margins ranging from 47 to 194.

• Money: The Dems, after getting outgunned on the dark money front in 2010 by a wide margin, aren’t going to be caught napping this time (and this time, unlike 2008, they seem to have Barack Obama’s tacit approval). David Brock (in his quest to become the left’s answer to Karl Rove) is busy revving up his own 527/501(c)(4) type-thing for corraling large donations from undisclosed donors. The good news: they’ve already lined up $4 million in commitments. The bad news: they’re being led by Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (although maybe she’s better behind the scenes than she is as a campaigner).

• History: Here’s a great look back from Greg Giroux at Senate cycles where one party was defending more than 10 seats than the other party (as the Dems will in 2012). While the last three times this happened (2006 2008, 1986, and 1980), the defending party got hammered, many of the prior examples showed little movement one way or the other, including 1976, where a number of incumbents of both parties lost (in the post-Watergate environment) but it all balanced out to zero.

• AK-Sen: Nothing has really changed with the overall trajectory of the Alaska Senate race, but this is the first day that Lisa Murkowski has been able to claim a “lead” over Joe Miller (even though her victory has become increasingly clear each day). At the end of yesterday’s counting, she had 92,164 votes to Miller’s 90,448. 7,601 were subject to challenge but counted for her anyway (and, if Miller’s lawsuit succeeds, could get reversed), but based on Murkowski’s success at avoiding write-in challenges, is on track to win with or without those challenged ballots.

• FL-Sen: George LeMieux, whose year-and-a-half in the Senate is about to expire, is leaving with more of a whimper than a bang, if PPP is to be believed: his approvals are 11/28 (with 61% with no opinion), including 14/24 among Republicans. He’s not looking like he’d have much impact in a challenge to Bill Nelson in 2012, which he’s threatened (which isn’t to say that Nelson is out of the woods, as a stronger Republican will no doubt come along). Among all the appointed Senators, he’s still faring better than Roland Burris (18/57) but worse than Carte Goodwin (17/22) and Ted Kaufman (38/33). (Oh, and if you’re still feeling like we lost out by not having Charlie Crist win the Senate race, guess again: Bob Dole! is reporting that Crist promised him he’d caucus with the GOP if he won the 3-way race. This comes after leaks in the waning days of the race that he’d caucus with the Democrats. Somehow, I expect any day now that Ralph Nader will reveal that Crist promised him that he’d caucus with the Green Party if he won the race.)

• IN-Sen: Richard Lugar made it official; he’s running for re-election one more time. Lugar, who’ll be 80 in 2012, probably has more to worry about in the Republican primary than he does in the general election, where aspiring Democrats would probably be more interested in the open gubernatorial seat.

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown will probably have a tougher re-election than his initial election, but it’s unclear which Republican he’ll face. The two who’ve gotten the most press are Mary Taylor, the current Auditor and newly-elected Lt. Governor, or Rep. Jim Jordan (a religious right fave from the state’s rural west), but another possibility that the article broaches is long-time Rep. Steve LaTourette, one of the House’s more moderate GOPers left. Either way, if Jordan or LaTourette were to try for the promotion, that would help the state GOP decide which of their seats to vaporize in the redistricting process (although LaTourette’s, in the northeast corner and surrounded by Dem seats, would be much harder to work with). Ohio’s losing two seats, though, and one more Dem seat is on the chopping block, especially since the biggest population losses have come in the northeast — the likeliest outcome seems to be consolidation of districts that sets up either a Dennis Kucinich/Marcia Fudge or Dennis Kucinich/Betty Sutton mash-up.

• PA-Sen: The GOP feels like they have a shot against Bob Casey (who won by a near-overwhelming margin in 2006), given the state’s turn toward the red this year. The big question, though, is who? If Tom Ridge didn’t do it this year when it would have been a gimmee, he certainly isn’t any likelier to do it in 2012. Hotline mentions a couple current suburban Reps., Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent, both of whom have tenaciously held down Dem-leaning districts that would be prime open seat battles if they left. Failing that, the bench looks pretty empty; they cite state Sen. Jake Corman as interested, as well as talk radio host and behind-the-scenes player Glen Meakem, who cited interest in running for 2010 but decided against it.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s SoS (a Dem, Mark Ritchie) has laid out the timeline for the recount process. The race will be canvassed starting Nov. 23, and presuming a recount is necessary (which it will be unless something weird happens with the canvass, as Dem Mark Dayton leads Tom Emmer by less than one-half of a percent, triggering the automatic recount provision), the recounting will begin on Nov. 29.

• MD-01: Nothing like teabagger hypocrisy at work: freshly elected with a mandate to destroy the federal government, Andy Harris’s first act in Washington was to demand all the free goodies from the federal government that he’s entitled to, so long as other people are paying for them. At freshman orientation, Harris was observed expressing dismay that his gold-plated health care plan takes a month to kick in.

• NY-01, NY-25: Here are a couple more updates from overtime. In the 1st, Randy Altschuler’s lead over Tim Bishop is currently 383, but there are more than 11,000 absentees to be counted starting today, and since they’re all from one county (Suffolk), your guess is as good as mine how they break. In NY-25, Ann Marie Buerkle gained a tiny bit of ground as two GOP-leaning counties reported their absentees; she’s now up 729. Dan Maffei’s base, Dem-leaning Onondaga County, is about to start counting its 6,000 absentees. He should make up some ground, but he’ll need to average 56% among the remaining absentee ballots, while he’s only got 54% in Onondaga so far, though.

• DSCC: Dianne Feinstein told the press that Michael Bennet is, despite his previous demurrals, going to be the next DSCC chair. Does Michael Bennet know this? He’s still saying no. The rest of the Dem leadership in the Senate (and the GOP, too) was elected without a hitch today, but the DSCC job still stands vacant.

• CA-AG: Things keep looking up for Kamala Harris in California, after a torrent of new votes yesterday from Alameda County (where the Dem stronghold of Oakland is). That batch broke 18,764 for Harris, and only 5,099 for Steve Cooley, which may be a decisive moment in the count.

• Chicago mayor: Rahm Emanuel is certainly looking like the early favorite in the Chicago mayoral race, courtesy of an Anzalone-Liszt poll commissioned by the Teamsters local (who haven’t endorsed yet). Emanuel is at 36, with Danny Davis at 14, Carol Mosely Braun at 13, Gery Chico at 10, James Meeks at 7, and Miguel del Valle at 4. Now you may be noticing what I’m noticing, that there’s significant splitting of the African-American vote here, and if you added Davis, Braun, and Meeks up into one super-candidate, they’d be in a dead heat with Emanuel. Well, don’t forget that this election uses a runoff, so chances are good we’ll see a head-to-head between Emanuel and one of the African-American challengers, and the poll finds Emanuel winning both those contests convincingly too: 54-33 versus Davis and 55-32 against Braun.

It’s still the week of Election Day, which means it’s time to take an incredibly premature look at the Senate races developing in 2012. As you may have heard, the map favors the GOP, suggesting that the party may have their second big cycle in a row. However, theoretically, the Democrats had a favorable map in 2010 and they ended that without a single pick-up.

Instead of making predictions that are sure to be outdated in two months, let alone two years, I’m embracing the uncertainty. For each race, this preview will look at:

The best-case and worst-case scenario for the incumbent party; a rating on which scenario is more likely to happen (1 for worst-case, 10 for best-case)

Likely candidates, mostly made up of this year’s “Tommy Thompsons”. If you’ll recall, for most of 2009 and early 2010, pundits and observers thought the only way Russ Feingold would be in trouble is if Tommy Thompson ran. In nearly every state, there’s the “obvious” candidate(s) that conventional wisdom cements as the “only viable” candidate(s)-Schwarzenegger in California, Huckabee in Arkansas, Napolitano in Arizona, and these projections are more often wrong than right.

Retirement shock: every cycle features retirements, some expected and some unexpected. This looks at where such a retirement would fall. (1 for expected (like Bunning), 10 for completely shocking (like Bayh))

And for kicks and giggles, a “cattle call” to be preserved for posterity, so we can look at this diary 23 months from now and look at all the things we didn’t know would happen.

Democrats (and those who caucus):

California, Diane Feinstein

Best-case scenario: Given the lean of the state and disinterest among strong contenders, Feinstein fails to attract a major nominee and runs against a Dick Mountjoy-esque candidate.

Worst-case scenario: California’s budget woes only get worse under Gov. Brown, resulting in high dissatisfaction across the state; the GOP nominates a Hispanic candidate for President or Vice-President while other Hispanic national stars become more prominent, stopping or even reversing the hold Democrats have on the Hispanic vote; Obama’s victory in California is secured while he is mired campaigning full-time in a dozen battleground states away from the Pacific West, so he spends little time getting out the vote. Feinstein loses in a squeaker to a moderate, governance-minded Republican.

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Feinstein will probably pick up a more serious challenger, but have little problem defending her seat.

Possible candidates: Tom Campbell, Steve Poizner, Steve Cooley

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; At age 77, she’s far from “old” for the Senate, and she stated she’s running again at a recent Boxer rally.

Race rating: DEM Favored

Connecticut, Joe Lieberman

Best-case scenario: Lieberman retires or runs and is easily defeated in the primary.

Worst-case scenario: Lieberman defects and runs as a Republican, or Lieberman runs third-party and who knows what happens.

Scenario rating: ??? out of 10; who knows?

Possible candidates: Chris Murphy, Joe Courtney, Ned Lamont, Sam Caliguiri, Tom Foley, Rob Simmons

Retirement shock: 3 out of 10; it wouldn’t shock anyone, but it’s not expected.

Race rating: Lean DEM

Delaware, Tom Carper

Best-case scenario: With no bench and Carper’s decision to run again, the GOP leaves the race unchallenged, or worse, nominates Christine O’Donnell.

ALTERNATIVE: Carper retires and Beau Biden decides to run for the seat.

Worst-case scenario: Carper decides to retire, and Mike Castle decides to run; having learned their lesson last time, he is unchallenged for the nomination.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10; I think a Carper-Biden swap is likely, and the reason why Biden didn’t run in 2010.

Possible candidates: Beau Biden, Mike Castle, Christine O’Donnell, Michele Rollins

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Carper has repeatedly denied health issues but has had a long and successful political career. At age 63, he could easily run again but his retirement likely wouldn’t catch anyone off guard.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Florida, Bill Nelson

Best-case scenario: Rick Scott implodes as a Governor; Obama makes a major push to win Florida again; the GOP nomination is beset with infighting and a far-right and battle-fatigued candidate emerges from the scrum.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate that keeps the party unified; the economy stays in similar shape; Marco Rubio is on the 2012 ticket or otherwise barnstorms around the state with his arm around the shoulder of the GOP nominee.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; Nelson will be a big target, and Crist’s defection left the state GOP remarkably solidified. There are a number of GOPers on the bench that could make this a marquee race.

Possible candidates: George LeMiuex, Jeb Bush, Connie Mack IV

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Daniel Akaka, Hawaii

Best-case scenario: Akaka runs for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, and Charles Djou pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: Akaka doesn’t run for re-election and Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, or Charles Djou runs.

Scenario rating: 4 out of 10; Akaka says he’s “definitely running again”, but either way I think one of those three runs. Half of either scenario coming true would make this a 5 out of 10, but since I think Akaka’s retirement is moderately possible, I’ll downgrade it to 4.

Possible candidates: Linda Lingle, Duke Aiona, Charles Djou, Ed Case, Mufi Hannemann

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Ben Cardin, Maryland

Best-case scenario: Cardin is ignored in his bid for a second term.

Worst-case scenario: Some scandal tars the entire state party and Bob Ehrlich runs.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10; Ehrlich has said he’s done with elections and Michael Steele is running for RNC Chairman again.

Possible candidates: Mary Kane

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10; Cardin is a freshman and will likely hold the seat as long as he wants.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Debbie Stabenow, Michigan

Best-case scenario: A brutal GOP primary made up of lackluster candidates produces a far-right but unqualified nominee.

Worst-case scenario: A pragmatic-minded GOP candidate gets the party unified behind him/her and runs a solid campaign against Stabenow.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; There’s always the potential for a sideshow, but Rick Snyder’s nomination and landslide victory provides a good template for the state GOP to use. If the party gets its act together, Stabenow will be in real trouble.

Possible candidates: John Engler, Terri Lynn Land, Candice Miller, David Camp, Mike Cox

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; it’s not particularly likely, but given the turmoil in the Michigan Democratic Party, not that many people would be searching for a reason why.

Race rating: Toss-up

Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar

Best-case scenario: Most interested parties pass on the race, preferring to take on Franken in 2014 when Obama won’t be on the ticket, and Klobuchar is given a free pass against a minor nominee.

Worst-case scenario: She attracts a major challenger.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; we’re now looking at the personal whims of a handful of candidates who could theoretically make this a race, but it just seems unlikely that the GOP will be playing significant offense here.

Possible candidates: Norm Coleman, Tom Emmer, Jim Ramstad, Erik Paulsen, Paul Koering, Steve Sviggum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: DEM Favored

Missouri, Claire McCaskill

Best-case scenario: A Tea Party candidate emerges from the primary on a far-right platform.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP primary unifies behind a solid nominee.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; while anything can happen in a primary, the Missouri GOP seems to be able to keep things under control. This is going to be one of the top targets for the GOP, and they’ll do anything they can to keep it that way.

Possible candidates: Jim Talent, Sarah Steelman, Jo Ann Emerson, Sam Graves

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Montana, Jon Tester

Best-case scenario: The big name candidates decide to run for the open Governor’s seat instead of challenging him.

Worst-case scenario: The best-case scenario doesn’t happen.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10

Possible candidates: Denny Rehberg, Marc Racicot

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Ben Nelson, Nebraska

Best-case scenario: The big names pass on the race and Nelson faces another underwhelming or unknown opponent.

Worst-case scenario: Dave Heineman enters the race and clears the primary field.

Best-case scenario (for Nelson, not Democrats): Nelson agrees to a deal where he switches parties in exchange for not being primaried.

Scenario rating: 2 out of 10; even if Heineman decides not to run, there are still others who would make this a competitive race.

Possible candidates: Dave Heineman, Jon Bruning, Jeff Fortenberry, Lee Terry, Adrian Smith

Retirement shock: 6 out of 10; Nelson seems to be committed to the idea of running again, which is good because Democrats really don’t have that many other options here.

Race rating: Lean GOP

New Jersey, Bob Menendez

Best-case scenario: The state unifies behind a weak nominee or several big names pass on the race, leaving perhaps an underfunded and too conservative candidate.

Worst-case scenario: A strong and pragmatic nominee emerges with the support of Chris Christie, who receives a spike in approval ratings.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this is a purely candidate-driven race. In a state like Jersey, the Democrats have the advantage.

Possible candidates: John Crowley, Tom Kean Jr., Steve Lonegan

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico

Best-case scenario: No real challenger emerges and Bingaman coasts to another election.

Worst-case scenario: Bingaman retires and Democrats are left unprepared.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10.

Possible candidates: Heather Wilson, Pete Domenici Jr., Allen Weh

Retirement shock: 7 out of 10; Even though he’s a five-term Senator, Bingaman is only 67 years old.

Race rating: Safe DEM

New York, Kristen Gillibrand

Best-case scenario: Like in 2010, no big name rises to the occasion to challenge her.

Worst-case scenario: Gillibrand simultaneously receives a primary challenge that empties her bank account and leaves her scatched coming out of the September primary, while a strong GOP challenger awaits.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; 2010 was the time for either of those two things to happen.

Possible candidates: George Pataki, Rick Lazio

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

North Dakota, Kent Conrad

Best-case scenario: Conrad runs again and with John Hoeven already in the Senate, there’s no one left to challenge him.

Worst-case scenario: Conrad retires.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I don’t know what Conrad is going to do, but right now there’s no obvious reason why this would be a race.

Possible candidates: Rick Berg, Jack Dalrymple, Wayne Stenehjam

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; after Dorgan’s retirement, I don’t think anyone would be shocked to death if this happened.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Ohio, Sherrod Brown

Best-case scenario: The GOP nominates a lackluster candidate while Obama’s ground-game massively turns out of the vote.

Worst-case scenario: The GOP nominates a solid candidate and Obama’s campaign team focuses on other battleground states.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I think Obama will focus here, so it depends on who the nominee will be.

Possible candidates: Jim Jordan, Jon Husted, Mike DeWine, Mary Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Pennsylvania, Bob Casey

Best-case scenario: Casey attracts only a minor candidate, or an otherwise roughed-up or far-right candidate.

Worst-case scenario: Casey attracts a solid candidate who runs with a unified party behind him/her.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong for either side here.

Possible candidates: Jim Gerlach, Rick Santorum

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Toss-up

Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse

Best-case scenario: Sheldon Whitehouse runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Whitehouse is discovered to be a serial killer.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Don Carcieri, John Robitaille, John Loughlin

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

Vermont, Bernie Sanders

Best-case scenario: Sanders runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Vermonters suddenly decide they don’t like socialists.

Scenario rating: 10 out of 10

Possible candidates: Les Britton, Paul Beaudry, Brian Dubie, Jim Douglas

Retirement shock: 9 out of 10; Sanders is 69, but he’s also a freshman.

Race rating: Safe DEM

Virginia, Jim Webb

Best-case scenario: The Virginia GOP nominates someone from the far-right, like Del. Bob Marshall

Worst-case scenario: Webb declines to run again, catching the party off-guard, while the GOP nominates a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; a lot could go wrong here for both parties.

Possible candidates: George Allen, Bob Marshall, Corey Stewart, Ken Cuccinelli, Bill Bolling, Tom Davis, Rob Wittman

Retirement shock: 5 out of 10; Webb has been low-profile and all reports indicate he doesn’t enjoy life in the Senate.

Race rating: Toss-up

Washington, Maria Cantwell

Best-case scenario: Deflated from losing in 2010, the Washington GOP gives this race a pass while focusing on the Governor’s race instead.

Worst-case scenario: Cantwell attracts a strong challenger and is caught flat-footed in campaigning.

Scenario rating: 7 out of 10; I can see a decent challenger emerging, but Cantwell will probably be fine.

Possible candidates: Clint Didier, Don Benton, Dave Reichart, Cathy McMorris-Rodgers

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Safe DEM

West Virginia, Joe Manchin

Best-case scenario: Manchin threads the needle of being a Washington D.C. Democratic incumbent with maintaining his popularity back home.

Worst-case scenario: Manchin is viewed as “going Washington” at the same time he’s down-ballot from Obama.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could really go either way here, however the GOP still needs a strong challenger.

Possible candidates: Shelley Moore Capito, Betty Ireland, David McKinley

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Wisconsin, Herb Kohl

Best-case scenario: Kohl runs for re-election.

Worst-case scenario: Kohl retires.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; I’ve heard both, but I’ve also heard of people preparing for Kohl to retire, so it looks like no one would be caught off guard.

Possible candidates: Ron Kind, Tom Barrett, Paul Ryan

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Republicans:

Arizona, Jon Kyl

Best-case scenario: No serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Worst-case scenario: A serious candidate emerges against Kyl

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; how serious remains to be seen, but this looks to be near the top of a short list for Democrats.

Possible candidates: Gabrielle Giffords, Terry Goddard, Felicia Rotellini

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: Lean GOP

Indiana, Richard Lugar

Best-case scenario: Lugar runs for re-election and isn’t seriously challenged

Worst-case scenario: Lugar retires or is primaried by a far-right hardliner

Scenario rating: 6 out of 10; Lugar has announced for another term, but he’s near the top of the Tea Party hitlist. We’ll see who they come up with and if they follow through.

Possible candidates: Marlin Stutzman, Brad Ellsworth

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; Lugar will be 80 in 2012.

Race rating: GOP Favored

Maine, Olympia Snowe

Best-case scenario: Snowe isn’t primaried.

Worst-case scenario: Snowe is primaried.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; if Snowe is the nominee, she’ll coast to victory as she always has and always will. If the Tea Party is stupid enough to challenge her and wins, they’ll have given Democrats another seat for free.

Possible candidates: Chandler Woodcock, Elias Cutler, Tom Allen

Retirement shock: 8 out of 10

Race rating: GOP Favored

Massachusetts, Scott Brown

Best-case scenario: Martha Coakley runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Democrats put forward a strong nominee while Scott Brown has to fight to get out of the primary, if he’s even able to.

Scenario rating: 3 out of 10; I see Brown getting re-nominated pretty easily, but he’ll have a tough challenger regardless.

Possible candidates: Mike Capuano, Joe Kennedy, Ted Kennedy Jr., Stephen Lynch, Ed Markey, Marty Meehan, John Tierney, Elizabeth Warren

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Lean DEM

Mississippi, Roger Wicker

Best-case scenario: Wicker runs again.

Worst-case scenario: Some major skeleton is found in Wicker’s closet.

Scenario rating: 9 out of 10; there’s some talk of a primary challenge to Wicker, but it’s not clear who or if it would even matter.

Possible candidates: Travis Childers, Gene Taylor

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Nevada, John Ensign

Best-case scenario: Ensign retires or resigns quietly, the GOP nominates a solid alternative, and Democrats fail to capitalize on the situation.

Worst-case scenario: Ensign somehow wins the nomination or a far-right candidate wins; meanwhile more embarrassing stuff about Ensign comes out throughout the cycle.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; this state has been a constant headache for the GOP.

Possible candidates: Brian Krolicki, Dean Heller, Dana Titus, Rory Reid, Shelley Berkley, Oscar Goodman

Retirement shock: 2 out of 10; Ensign says he’s running but that may not hold up.

Race rating: Toss-up

Tennessee, Bob Corker

Best-case scenario: Corker is unchallenged in the primary and Democrats, still reeling from 2010, decline to pursue.

Worst-case scenario: Corker gets a primary challenge and Democrats nominate a solid candidate.

Scenario rating: 8 out of 10

Possible candidates: Steve Cohen, Phil Bredesen

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison

Best-case scenario: Hutchison quietly retires and a strong GOP emerges from the primary, while Democrats pass on the race.

Worst-case scenario: GOP infighting produces a roughed-up nominee while the Democrats coalesce behind an up-and-comer.

Scenario rating: 5 out of 10; it could go either way.

Possible candidates: Michael Williams, Roger Williams, Elizabeth Jones, David Dewhurst, Tom Leppert, Bill White, John Sharp, Chet Edwards

Retirement shock: 1 out of 10; it’ll be a shock if she runs again.

Race rating: Lean GOP

Utah, Orrin Hatch

Best-case scenario: Whether Hatch is primaried or not, the GOP puts up a candidate for the race.

Worst-case scenario: Republicans nominate someone extremely radical while Jim Matheson runs for the Democrats.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Jason Chaffetz

Retirement shock: 4 out of 10; whether a retirement is forced or not, Hatch’s departure wouldn’t shock anyone.

Race rating: Safe GOP

Wyoming, John Barrasso

Best-case scenario: Barrasso runs again, or doesn’t.

Worst-case scenario: In the greatest paperwork snafu of history, Republicans accidentally forget to file and are without a nominee.

Scenario rating: 1 out of 10

Possible candidates: Gary Trauner

Retirement shock: 10 out of 10

Race rating: Safe GOP

Summary:

Anything could happen. Everyone learned that lesson coming into the 2010 cycle. However, it strains the imagination to come up with a scenario where Mississippi, Tennessee, Utah, or Wyoming become winnable for Democrats, and states like Indiana and Maine would require a series of events to come onto the map. The only targets otherwise are Arizona, Massachusetts, Nevada, and Texas; as far as maps go, that’s pretty favorable for Republicans.

Meanwhile, it all depends on candidate recruitment, but assuming no real failures (like FL-2006 or DE-2010), Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia are top targets immediately. Developments could put Minnesota, New Jersey, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wisconsin on the map, while California, Hawaii, and Washington remain long-shots.

Putting even the fringiest of races on the table, Republicans have 6 targets to defend to the Democrats 12-15. Looking at likely targets, its 4 to 8. It’s possible, like 2010 for the GOP, those 8 races all break for the incumbents while the 4 races stay as targets and others come onto the map. However, even if the 2012 cycle was a neutral cycle, this would still favor Republicans.

Now we just have to sit back, wait for retirements to come in, see if any unexpected appointments or tragic passing put another race on the map, and watch as our best combined conventional wisdom falls apart in front of our eyes.

Here’s my initial 2012 cattle call. What’s yours?

1. Nebraska (D)

2. Massachusetts (R)

3. Montana (D)

4. Virginia (D)

5. Missouri (D)

6. Nevada (R)

7. Florida (D)

8. Michigan (D)

9. Ohio (D)

10. Pennsylvania (D)

11. Arizona (R)

12. West Virginia (D)

13. Texas (R)

14. Wisconsin (D)

15. New Jersey (D)

16. Indiana (R)

17. Connecticut (D/I)

18. North Dakota (D)

19. Minnesota (D)

20. Washington (D)

21. Maine(R)

22. Hawaii (D)

23. California (D)

24. Tennessee (R)

25. Delaware (D)

26. New Mexico (D)

27. New York (D)

28. Mississippi (R)

29. Maryland (D)

30. Utah (R)

31. Vermont (D/I)

32. Rhode Island (D)

33. Wyoming (R)

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

Get ready for the mother of all poll dumps:

• AK-Sen, Gov PPP:  Joe Miller (R) 37%, Scott McAdams (D) 30%, Lisa Murkowski (WI) 30%; Sean Parnell (R-inc) 54%, Ethan Berkowitz (D) 43%

• AR-Gov Rasmussen: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 60%, Jim Keet (R) 38%

• AR-Sen Rasmussen: John Boozman (R) 55%, Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 36%

• AZ-Gov Rasmussen: Jan Brewer (R-inc) 53%, Terry Goddard (D) 39%

• CA-Sen, Gov PPP: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 50%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (R) 46%

• CA-Sen, Gov SurveyUSA: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 46%, Carly Fiorina (R) 38%; Jerry Brown (D) 48%, Meg Whitman (D) 37%

• CA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%; Jerry Brown (D) 51%, Meg Whitman (D) 41%

• CO-Sen Marist: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 45%

• CO-Sen, Gov PPP: Ken Buck (R) 49%, Michael Bennet (D-inc) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 48%, Tom Tancredo (C) 43%, Dan Maes (R) 8%

• CO-Sen, Gov YouGov: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 49%, Ken Buck (R) 48%; John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Tom Tancredo (C) 40%, Dan Maes (R) 9%

• CT-Sen, Gov PPP: Richard Blumenthal (D) 54%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Tom Foley (R) 49%, Dan Malloy (D) 47%

• CT-Sen, Gov Qpac: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 44%; Tom Foley (R) 48%, Dan Malloy (D) 45%

• CT-Sen Rasmussen: Richard Blumenthal (D) 53%, Linda McMahon (R) 46%

• CT-Gov Rasmussen : Tom Foley (D) 48%, Dan Malloy (R) 46%

• CT-Sen, Gov YouGov: Richard Blumenthal (D) 52%, Linda McMahon (R) 43%; Dan Malloy (D) 48%, Tom Foley (R) 44%

• FL-Gov, Sen PPP: Alex Sink (D) 48%, Rick Scott (R) 47%; Marco Rubio (R) 47%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 21%

• FL-Gov, Sen Quinnipiac: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 43%; Marco Rubio (R) 45%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 18%

• FL-Sen Rasmussen: Marco Rubio (R) 50%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%, Kendrick Meek (D) 16%

• FL-Gov, Sen Susquehanna for Sunshine St. News: Alex Sink (D) 49%, Rick Scott (R) 46%; Marco Rubio (R) 48%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%, Kendrick Meek (D) 20%

• FL-Gov Univ. of S. Florida for NYT: Rick Scott (R) 44%, Alex Sink (D) 39%

• FL-Gov, Sen YouGov: Alex Sink (D) 45%, Rick Scott (R) 45%; Marco Rubio (R) 46%, Charlie Crist (I) 34%, Kendrick Meek (D) 15%

• GA-Gov Mason-Dixon: Nathan Deal (R) 47%, Roy Barnes (D) 40%, John Monds (L) 6%

• IA-Sen, Gov Selzer for Des Moines Register: Terry Branstad (R) 50%, Chet Culver (D-inc) 38%; Charles Grassley (R) 61%, Roxanne Conlin (D) 30%

• IL-Sen Anzalone-Liszt for DSCC: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 39%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%

• IL-Sen, Gov PPP: Mark Kirk (R) 46%, Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%; Bill Brady (R) 45%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• IL-Sen, Gov YouGov: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 47%, Mark Kirk (R) 44%; Bill Brady (R) 47%, Pat Quinn (D-inc) 40%

• KY-Sen PPP: Rand Paul (R) 55%, Jack Conway (D) 40%

• KY-Sen YouGov: Rand Paul (R) 52%, Jack Conway (D) 44%

• MA-Gov WNEC: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 42%, Charlie Baker (R) 37%, Tim Cahill (I) 11%

• ME-Gov MPRC for Down East: Paul LePage (R) 39%, Eliot Cutler (I) 29%, Libby Mitchell (D) 24%

• ME-01 Critical Insights for Maine Today Media: Dean Scontras (R) 45%, Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 41%

• MN-Gov PPP: Mark Dayton (D) 43%, Tom Emmer (R) 40%, Tom Horner (I) 15%

• MO-Sen YouGov: Roy Blunt (R) 54%, Robin Carnahan (D) 42%

• NH-Sen, Gov PPP: Kelly Ayotte (R) 56%, Paul Hodes (D) 41%; John Lynch (D-inc) 53%, John Stephen (R) 44%

• NH-Gov Rasmussen: John Lynch (D-inc) 51%, John Stephen (R) 45%

• NH-01, 02 UNH: Frank Guinta (R) 46%, Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc) 39%; Ann McLane Kuster (D) 43%, Charlie Bass (R) 40%

• NM-Gov ABQ Journal: Susana Martinez (R) 52%, Diane Denish (D) 42%

• NV-Gov Mason-Dixon: Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 35%

• NV-03 Mason Dixon: Joe Heck (R) 53%, Dina Titus (D-inc) 43%

• NV-Sen, Gov PPP: Sharron Angle (R) 47%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 46%, Scott Ashjian (T) 3%; Brian Sandoval (R) 55%, Rory Reid (D) 44%

• NV-Sen, Gov YouGov: Sharron Angle (R) 49%, Harry Reid (D-inc) 47%; Brian Sandoval (R) 56%, Rory Reid (D) 40%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov Siena: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 37%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 64%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov SurveyUSA: Andrew Cuomo (D) 55%, Carl Paladino (R) 33%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 56%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 36%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 62%, Jay Townsend (R) 32%

• NY-Sen, Sen-B, Gov YouGov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 56%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 58%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 34%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 60%, Jay Townsend (R) 34%

• OH-Sen, Gov Columbus Dispatch (mail-in): John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 47%; Rob Portman (R)56%, Lee Fisher (D) 40%

• OH-Sen, Gov PPP: John Kasich (R) 49%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: John Kasich (R) 47%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 46%; Rob Portman (R) 56%, Lee Fisher (D) 37%

• OH-Sen Rasmussen: Rob Portman (R) 57%, Lee Fisher (D) 33%

• OH-Sen, Gov Univ. of Cincinnati: John Kasich (R) 52%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 48%; Rob Portman (R) 60%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• OH-Sen, Gov YouGov: John Kasich (R) 48%, Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%; Rob Portman (R) 52%, Lee Fisher (D) 39%

• PA-Sen Marist: Pat Toomey (R) 52%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Muhlenberg: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 49%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Sen, Gov PPP: Pat Toomey (R) 51%, Joe Sestak (D) 46%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 45%

• PA-Sen, Gov Quinnipiac: Pat Toomey (R) 50%, Joe Sestak (D) 45%; Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 42%

• PA-Gov Rasmussen: Tom Corbett (R) 52%, Dan Onorato (D) 43%

• PA-Sen, Gov Susquehanna for Tribune-Review: Pat Toomey (R) 46%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 48%, Dan Onorato (D) 41%

• PA-Sen, Gov YouGov: Pat Toomey (R) 48%, Joe Sestak (D) 44%; Tom Corbett (R) 51%, Dan Onorato (D) 40%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Mason-Dixon: Gary Herbert (R-inc) 59%, Peter Coroon (D) 32%; Mike Lee (R) 48%, Sam Granato (D) 32%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 48%, Morgan Philpot (R) 35%

• UT-Gov, Sen, 02 Dan Jones (for Deseret News): Gary Herbert (R-inc) 63%, Peter Coroon (D) 29%; Mike Lee (R) 57%, Sam Granato (D) 30%; Jim Matheson (D-inc) 51%, Morgan Philpot (R) 39%

• VA-05 POS for Robert Hurt: Robert Hurt (R) 45%, Tom Perriello (D) 42%

• VT-Gov Rasmussen: Peter Shumlin (D) 50%, Brian Dubie (R) 45%

• WA-Sen Fox/Pulse: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WA-Sen Marist: Patty Murray (D-inc) 49%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• WA-Sen PPP: Dino Rossi (R) 50%, Patty Murray (D-inc) 48%

• WA-Sen YouGov: Patty Murray (D-inc) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 47%

• WI-Sen Marist: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 45%

• WI-Sen, Gov YouGov: Ron Johnson (R) 52%, Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%; Scott Walker (R) 53%, Tom Barrett (D) 43%

• WV-Sen PPP: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 46%

• WV-Sen Rasmussen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 46%

Another huge batch of polls to tide you over until tomorrow.

CA-Sen

DE-Sen (PDF)

DE-AL (x2)

FL-Sen (Mason-Dixon)

FL-Sen (Susquehanna)

KS-Sen

KS-Gov

KS-04

MA-Gov

MI-09

MN-08

MN-Gov

MO-Sen (PDF)

MO-04 (PDF)

MO-07 (PDF)

NV-Sen

NY-19

OH-Gov

OR-Gov

PA-Sen (PPP)

PA-Sen (Muhlenberg)

PA-Gov (Muhlenberg)

RI-02

TX-Gov (PDF)

WA-Sen (Washington Poll)

WA-Sen (SUSA)

WI-Sen

WI-Sen (PDF)

WI-Gov (PDF)

Bonus: Siena has four new NY state senate polls out (PDF):

SD-03: Brian Foley (D-inc) 37, Lee Zeldin (R) 53

SD-40: Michael Kaplowitz (D) 44, Greg Ball (R) 49

SD-48: Darrel Aubertine (D-inc) 43, Patty Ritchie (R) 47

SD-58: Tim Kennedy (D) 45, Jack Quinn (R) 39, William Stachowski (WFP/I) 9

Note that Stachowski is the incumbent, but lost the Dem primary to Kennedy.

• FL-Sen: File this under half a year too late and a few million dollars too short. Charlie Crist, as quietly as possible through an advisor making a leak to the Wall Street Journal, says he’d caucus with the Democrats if elected. If he’d said that many months ago, he would have probably had a clearer shot consolidating the Democratic vote and turning it into a two-man race. This comes shortly after a day of conflicting reports on whether or not Bill Clinton tried to get Kendrick Meek to drop out of the race, as recently as last week. Clinton and Meek have offered partial rebuttals, but at any rate, it’s kind of a non-story at this point with only a few days left.

• LA-Sen: Too bad there isn’t time left in the cycle to turn this into an ad: David Vitter’s verbal gymnastics at the last debate as to direct questions as to whether or not he actually broke the law when he was engaging in “very serious sin,” apparently for pay. The short answer is, of course, yes (assuming that his involvement with a prostitution ring occurred in Washington DC and not Reno).

• NV-Sen: Those of you following Jon Ralston’s tweets of the early voting in Nevada with bated breath probably already know this, but thanks to the movement of the mobile voting booths into some Dem-friendly areas, Democrats have actually pulled into the lead (at least by party registration) among early voters, up by 20,000 in Clark County.

• CO-Gov: My first question was why Tom Tancredo would even bother running for office if he felt this way, but then I remembered that he’s running for an executive position this time, not a legislative one. Apparently he’s a believer in a strong executive. Very, very, very strong.

There is a sort of an elitist idea that seeps into the head of a lot of people who get elected. And they begin to think of themselves as, really, there for only one purpose and that is to make laws. And why would you make laws?

• IL-Gov: Oooops, ad buy fail. A round of Bill Brady ads were pulled from the air on Thursday because the appropriate television stations didn’t get paid first. It appears to have been a “glitch” (their words) rather than a cash flow problem, though, nothing that a Fed-Exed check won’t fix: the ads will resume running tonight.

• PA-Gov: Ah, nice to see that a Republican briefly acknowledge that the fewer people vote, the better Republicans do. Tom Corbett, at a Philadelphia appearance, said that he wanted to keep Democratic participation down, saying “we want to make sure that they don’t get 50 percent.”

• OH-13: Sensing a pattern here? A second woman is coming forward to accuse Tom Ganley of sexual harassment. She filed a police report stating that in 2005, while in the middle of a car transaction, Ganley groped her and later propositioned her. This race, despite Ganley’s money, is seeming increasingly like one of the House Dems’ lesser worries.

• RGA: I’m not sure what you can do with $6.5 million in half a week, but the RGA is determined to find out. They put that much money into four governor’s races in some of the nation’s largest states: Florida, Illinois, Ohio, and (interestingly, since they haven’t sweated this one before) Pennsylvania. (While the other three are for TV ads, in Florida it’s for GOTV… seemingly something that Rick Scott forgot to purchase.)

• Election night: This may be the most shocking news of all today, for the obsessive number crunchers among us. This will be the first election where the powers that be (mostly the AP) will be doing away with precinct reporting. Instead of giving specific numbers of precincts in, they’ll be expressing it as “percentage of expected vote.” The change in longstanding tradition has mostly to do with the increasing prevalence of mail-in votes and early votes, best seen with some locales dumping all their early votes all at once and calling it one precinct, messing with people like us who build complicated models ahead of time.

• SSP TV:

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk’s last ad calls Alexi Giannoulias “too immature” for the Senate (um, has he actually seen the Senate in action?)

• NV-Sen: Obama! Fear! Tyranny! Aaaghh! And apparently the Carmina Burana playing the background! (Sharron Angle’s closing statement, in other words)

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold puts on a plaid shirt and faces the camera, touting his accomplishments and newspaper endorsements

• TX-Gov: Bill White also rolls out his newspaper endorsements, as well as lobbing “career politician” at Rick Perry one last time

• MN-06: Taryl Clark’s last ad is a look at real people with real problems in the 6th, and the myriad ways Michele Bachmann blew them off

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 49%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

• CO-Gov: John Hickenlooper (D) 47%, Dan Maes (R) 5%, Tom Tancredo (C) 42%

• KY-Sen: Jack Conway (D) 41%, Rand Paul (R) 53%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 46%, Charlie Baker (R) 44%, Tim Cahill (I) 6%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 53%, Jim Huffman (R) 42%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 46%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

• YouGov: The English pollster is out with a slew of polls; the numbers seem very plausible, but they’re conducted over the Internet (probably using at least some sort of rigor, but that alone is enough for relegation to the end of the digest)

• CA: Jerry Brown (D) 50%, Meg Whitman (R) 41%; Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 45%

• FL: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 41%; Kendrick Meek (D) 18%, Marco Rubio (R) 42%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

• NY: Andrew Cuomo (D) 57%, Carl Paladino (R) 27%; Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 57%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 33%; Charles Schumer (D-inc) 59%, Jay Townsend (R) 35%

• OH: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 45%, John Kasich (R) 48%; Lee Fisher (D) 40%, Rob Portman (R) 53%

• PA: Dan Onorato (D) 41%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%; Joe Sestak (D) 44%, Pat Toomey (R) 50%

Hope your index fingers are rested up, because you’re going to have to do some intense clicking today.

CA-Gov

CO-Gov

CT-Sen

CT-Gov (PDF)

CT-01

CT-02

CT-03

DE-Sen

FL-25

GA-08

IN-02

KY-Sen (Braun)

KY-Sen (SUSA)

MD-Sen

ME-Gov (PDF)

MI-Gov

MI-07

MN-Gov

NC-02

ND-AL

NJ-12 (PDF)

NY-23 (PDF)

PA-Sen

PA-Gov

PA-10

PA-11

RI-Gov

RI-01

VA-05