Tag: AK-Sen

AK-Sen: Joe Miller sure sounds like he’s measuring the drapes here, doesn’t he, with his talk about how much he’d “love” to serve on the Judiciary and Armed Services committees? Donate to Scott McAdams and help make sure we force Joe Miller to make a humiliating, droopy-dog run back to Neiman Marcus to return those curtains.

DE-Sen: Oh, I’m afraid the Tea Party Express will be QUITE operational by the time Mike Castle arrives! The NYT reports that the TPX is going up with five different ads (two TV and three radio) on behalf of Christine O’Donnell, and they have a rough cut of one of the TV spots (check the link). As for how big a buy we’re talking, the TPX just filed its first independent expenditure report, for $46K. Their usual practice is to dribble things out in smallish reports one at a time – but don’t worry, it’ll snowball.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist is spending over half a million on a new TV buy. We don’t know what ads he’ll be running, but the St. Petersburg Times has some pretty good info on where they’ll appear (notably in Dem-leaning markets). Check the link for full details.

WI-Sen: GOPer Ron Johnson raised $1.2 million between July 1 and Aug. 25th, while Sen. Russ Feingold took in $920K. Johnson also loaned his campaign another $2.9 million out of his own coffers (which of course have been greatly bolstered over the years by government loans and grants to his plastics company). RonJo has been outspending Feingold, though, and has $1.6 mil in the bank compared to the senator’s $3.1 mil.

FL-Gov: Alex Sink has a new ad, touching on the oil spill and calling for a diversification of Florida’s economy. NWOTSOTB, but the spot is apparently airing in Florida’s panhandle.

GA-Gov: Nathan Deal just performed a classic document dump – and not one that’s likely to help him. He made public 28 years of his personal income tax returns, but none of this has anything to do with his auto salvage business which was the focus of a probe by the Office of Congressional Ethics.

CO-04: The House Race Hotline reports that the NRCC has reserved over $1 million in air time in the 4th CD. Let’s see if they actually come through with all that scrilla, though.

FL-08: Put away your can openers – no cat fud here. All six of Dan Webster’s Republican primary rivals have endorsed him, including teabagger Patricia Sullivan. However, Peg Dunmire is still in the race, on the actual Tea Party line.

IN-02: Joe Donnelly has a new spot out (NWOTSOTB), hitting Jackie Walorski for her support of a 23% national sales tax (as well as her desire to eliminate the home mortgage interest deduction). This issue is one that helped sink GOPer Tim Burns in the PA-12 special, so it has potency. I know that sometimes when Dems sink their teeth into this one, weenie liberals like to whine that what Republicans really mean is that they want to replace other taxes with this one. You know what? Let them make that argument. You don’t need to make it for them.

IN-09: Republican Todd Young has a new ad out, featuring footage of Baron Hill imperiously telling a journalism student that she couldn’t videotape a town hall. NWOTSOTB, but CQ notes that the spot is “currently airing only in the Louisville, Ky. market.”

LA-02: With Al Franken acting, you know, senatorial, it looks like Joe Cao has decided to take up the mantle of Stuart Smalley. Sayeth Cao: “I love the president, and I believe he truly likes me.” What a wiener.

MA-09: Labor activist Mac D’Alessandro scored the endorsement of NARAL in his primary bid against anti-choice incumbent Rep. Stephen Lynch. D’Alessandro raised $178K in the pre-primary period (7/1-8/25) and had $158K on hand for the stretch run. Lynch took in only $66K but had a million bucks in the bank.

NJ-03: Dem Rep. John Adler received the endorsement of the Veterans of Foreign Wars, which did not back anyone in the race two years ago. They also say they’ll provide financial help. (The Courier Post notes that the district includes Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst.) Adler’s also got a second negative spot out, hitting Republican Jon Runyan for his minimalist voting record. NWOTSOTB, and get a load of this stonewalling: “Campaign manager Geoff Mackler would not disclose the size of the buy, where the ads were committed to air or for how long they would air, saying he does not discuss strategy with reporters.” But I don’t think that should be the end of the story for a journalist. Hell, one of my jobs on a campaign I worked on in the 90s was to track down enemy ad buys. Reporters can do it, too. (And BTW, if you haven’t seen Adler’s first ad, I highly recommend you do so.)

NH-01, NH-02: John DiStaso has an asburd wealth of updates on New Hampshire’s two House races, including word that Charlie Bass is set to release his first ad (watch it here), a $40,000 buy on New Hampshire TV. There’s also news of a GOP primary poll in the 1st CD, taken by Cross Target on behalf of the right-wing group Americans for Prosperity. Sean Mahoney is at 33, Frank Guinta at 26, Rich Ashooh at 10, and Bob Bestani at 5. Mahoney’s been out with a positive/negative ad comparing his record to Guinta’s, making it clear that he thinks this poll is right about who the real contenders are. Guinta apparently has a new response ad coming this week.

NY-24: Mike Arcuri is up with a new ad, a positive bio spot. NWOTSOTB, though he has two slightly different versions, one of which is airing in Utica, the other Syracuse (see both here).

PA-07: A nice break for Dem Bryan Lentz: After a series of adverse rulings, Pat Meehan’s campaign withdrew its legal challenge to the candidacy of Jim Schneller, a teabagger who petitioned his way on to the ballot… thanks to a lot of help from Lentz supporters.

PA-10: Interesting: Back when he was a US Attorney, Tom Marino served as a reference for a casino application for a man his office was investigating. In fact, the news was so explosive it led to the DOJ transferring the investigation to another office – and to Marino’s resignation as USA. Back in May, though, Marino told a radio host that the DOJ had given him written permission to provide that reference, but he hasn’t produced it (yet). Dem Chris Carney is hitting him for this, asking, “Where’s the letter?”

WI-08: Steve Kagen is up with his first ad, and it’s a good one. Among other things, he touts the fact that he has refused congressional health coverage until everyone in America has health insurance. He also refers to himself as “Dr. Steve Kagen,” which is probably a helpful alternative to “Congressman” these days.

Enthusiasm Gap: Tom Jensen takes a look at a painful “what if” – as in, what if there were no enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans this year? Among other things, he thinks Alex Sink would have a double-digit lead and that Elaine Marshall would be running slightly ahead of Richard Burr. But check out his full chart.

Dumping Ground: We’ve brought up some serious methodological issues in the past that we have with those zone-flooding American Action Fund House race polls, so it’s best if we just confine the following to their own quarantine zone. (Those issues, by the way, included extremely aged samples and the fact that the GOP pollster, Ayres McHenry, asked respondents about their opinion of the healthcare bill right before diving into the topline match-ups.)

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc) 41%, Paul Gosar (R) 47%

AZ-05: Harry Mitchell (D-inc) 44%, David Schweikert (R) 50%

AZ-08: Gabby Giffords (D-inc) 46%, Jesse Kelly (R) 46%

CA-11: Jerry McNerney (D-inc) 44%, David Harmer (R) 45%

CA-47: Loretta Sanchez (D-inc) 45%, Van Tran (R) 43%

CO-03: John Salazar (D-inc) 43%, Scott Tipton 51%

CO-04: Betsy Markey (D-inc) 39%, Cory Gardner (R) 50%

NM-01: Martin Heinrich (D-inc) 49%, Jon Barela (R) 41%

NV-03: Dina Titus (D-inc) 45%, Joe Heck (R) 48%

OR-05: Kurt Schrader (D-inc) 44%, Scott Bruun (R) 36%

Every so often, people have asked us: Is the Swing State Project going to endorse anyone this cycle? Our answer has never changed: If we think there’s a special opportunity where a small blog like ours can make a real difference, we’ll seize on it. This cycle, though, we haven’t spotted any candidacies that fit the bill.

Until now.

If you read SSP on a daily basis, you probably won’t be surprised by our choice – but we hope you are pleased, and that you’ll join us in springing in to action. By now, you are of course familiar with Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee for senate in the state of Alaska, and it is our pleasure to endorse him. We’re setting a goal of raising the equivalent of one maximum federal donation – $2,400 – for his campaign.

So why do we like this race?

• McAdams is a bona fide Alaskan with an authentic pedigree as a commercial fishing deckhand and a small-town mayor. I’m not sure you can get more genuinely Alaskan than that.
• Joe Miller, his opponent, is a teabagger’s teabagger, with views that are pretty crazy even by red-state Republican standards. He wants to eliminate Social Security – as in, get rid of it completely. No exaggeration.
• Lisa Murkowski, the incumbent Miller beat to make this race go topsy-turvy, has been notably mum on any endorsement. There’s definitely bad blood here, and it could linger.
• McAdams is being backed to the hilt by Alaska’s senior Dem, Sen. Mark Begich, a true mensch who knows how to win in a very difficult state.
• Finally, Alaska is a cheap state – damn cheap – and a little money can go a long way here. SSP may not have Chuck Schumer’s rolodex, but $2,400 can do a lot in the Land of the Midnight Sun.

We know this has been a tough and in many ways dispiriting cycle. There haven’t been a whole lot of bright spots on the horizon. But this race is definitely one of them. We can make a real difference. Help us get started – now.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell’s radio interview on a local station yesterday should answer any doubts about whether or not the new Tea Party fave is ready for prime time (the answer: she isn’t). Mostly it’s notable for how testy it got, but also for O’Donnell pushing back on rumors that Mike Castle is gay – rumors that apparently no one has ever heard until O’Donnell brought them up in the first place. At any rate, Castle isn’t content to just stand back and let her dig her own hole: not wanting to fall into the Lisa Murkowski trap, his camp confirms that his last-minute pre-primary ad buy will be negative against O’Donnell. He also said he won’t be debating with (or otherwise even talking to) O’Donnell… ordinarily a safe decision for a quasi-incumbent, but who knows, maybe a mid-debate implosion by O’Donnell would be all Castle needs to put this one away.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s out with an internal today from Fredrick Polls, and while it gives him the lead, it’s a small enough edge compared with his rather robust leads pre-Dem primary that it shouldn’t fill anybody with much confidence about where his trendlines are headed. He leads Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek 35-34-17. That comes against the backdrop of getting squeezed in both directions, with the NRSC “pledging” (I don’t know what that means, but it’s not actual reservations) $2.5 million for the race, and Meek airing a new radio ad going after Crist’s GOP past, airing Crist’s own words, including calling himself “pro-life” and a “Jeb Bush Republican.” At least Crist is getting some backing from one rather unusual corner: state Sen. Al Lawson, who just lost the FL-02 primary to Allen Boyd, just endorsed Crist.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Maybe I should’ve been patient yesterday instead of complaining about Quinnipiac’s lack of New York primary numbers, because they rolled them out today. At any rate, they find, as I’d suspected, things tightening in the GOP gubernatorial primary: Rick Lazio leads Carl Paladino 47-35. (“Tightening” may not be the right word, as this is their first look at the NY-Gov primary, but it’s what other pollsters have seen.) In the Senate special election, Joe DioGuardi leads David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman, 28-12-10. And in another sign that Democratic voters are only dimly aware that there’s an election this year, fully 77% of Dem voters have no idea who they’ll vote for in the Attorney General’s race. Kathleen Rice leads Eric Schneiderman by a margin of 4-3. (That’s not a typo.)

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson has been outspending Russ Feingold 3-to-1 on the TV airwaves, which goes a long way to explaining why this is a tied race, but that may not matter much if he keeps stepping on his own free-market-fundamentalist message. Johnson found himself, in a recent radio interview, tying himself into knots by praising Communist China for having a more favorable investment climate for business than America, in part because of its “certainty.” So, let’s see… to stop America’s descent into socialism, we need to become more like the Communists, because the path to freedom is actually through the kind of “certainty” that comes from a command economy? Finally, this is probably too little too late, but Terence Wall, the guy who dropped out in a huff from the GOP field after the state convention, is now publicly touting the idea of a write-in campaign in the upcoming primary. I don’t know if he actually thinks he has a shot against a stumbling Johnson or is just engaged in some last-minute sour grapes.

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin continues to rake in the bucks in the West Virginia Senate special election. (Facing self-funding John Raese, the money issue is the main threat to Manchin… well, that, and the perilously low approvals for national Dems here.) He reported raising $393K last week, bringing his total to $1.5 million. Raese reported $717K, but $520K of that was self-funded, with only $22K from donors.

• AZ-Gov: This may not get much press in the wake of her amazing debate performance, but Jan Brewer is also engaged in an interesting strategy of retaliation, pulling her campaign ads off the local CBS affiliate, whose news department dared to question Brewer’s relationship with a key advisor who’s also connected to private prison company Corrections Corporation of America, which stands to make significant money incarcerating illegal immigrants rounded up under Arizona’s SB 1070. That’s not the same station whose reporter aggressively questioned Brewer post-debate last night… my advice to Brewer would be to go ahead and stop advertising on all local network affiliates as punishment. That’ll show ’em!

• CO-Gov: This may be kind of repetitive, but Dan Maes again turned down calls to drop out of the race today, after former state Senate president John Andrews withdrew his endorsement and told him to get out. Andrews wasn’t alone in the endorsement rescinding department: it looks like the whole ooops-no-I-actually-wasn’t-an-undercover-cop-in-Kansas thing was the fridge too far for former GOP Senator Hank Brown, who is now saying he’s “looking around” for a new candidate. Meanwhile, on the touchy subject of water law, maybe Maes should take a page from Scott McInnis and just plagiarize all his work on the subject, as at least that way he wouldn’t appear completely ignorant of the law. He just introduced an entirely new water law doctrine with his proclamation that “If it starts in Colorado, it’s our water” – ignoring the 7-state compact on use of Colorado River water and the whole concept of prior appropriation. As much as I’d like to see Jan Brewer using the Arizona National Guard to invade Colorado and reclaim its water, I don’t think the courts would let it get to that point.  

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink is expanding her current TV advertising buy, throwing another $600K into keeping her introductory spot on the air in a number of non-Miami markets. Oddly, Rick Scott has been taking the week off since the primary, at least from advertising.

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber has finally decided to go negative on Chris Dudley… it might be too little too late, but at least he’s recognizing what he needs to do (as recently as last week, he negged a DGA ad that went negative on Dudley… and this is the first time he’s aired a negative ad since 1994). The ad attacks Dudley for having “never managed anything” and never “shown much interest in Oregon” before (as seen in his decision to live in income-tax-free Washington while playing for the Trail Blazers).

• CT-04: Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella offers up a recent internal poll, via National Research. It has him within 4 points of Rep. Jim Himes, trailing 42-38 (the same 4-point margin seen in the recent round of AAF polling).

• FL-25: Here’s an offensive opportunity for House Dems that nobody should be writing off. Joe Garcia posted a lead in a recent internal poll (taken in wake of the primary, and revelations about various unsavory moments from Republican opponent David Rivera’s past) for his campaign. Garcia leads by 4 points in the poll from Benenson, 40-36 (with 5 for the Tea Party candidate and 1 for the Whig).

• MO-03: Republican challenger Ed Martin got the endorsement of the Missouri Farm Bureau, a change from their backing of Russ Carnahan in previous cycles. Carnahan didn’t show up for his meeting with the Farm Bureau, although it’s unclear whether that’s why he didn’t get endorsed or if he felt the endorsement was already lost.

• NH-02: EMILY’s List, Planned Parenthood, and NARAL are all coordinating their efforts in favor of Ann McLane Kuster ahead of the Dem primary in the 2nd, where’s she’s running against Katrina Swett, who has supported parental notification laws. In addition to a joint rally, they’re sending out a joint mailer together.

• PA-12: The NRCC is out with a poll, via POS, of the 12th, giving Tim Burns a small lead in his rematch against special election victor Mark Critz. Burns leads 48-43, quite the reversal from Critz’s 53-45 win in May. (Bear in mind that POS’s final released poll before that election gave Burns a 2-point lead.)

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 44%, Joe Miller (R) 50%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 45%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

Behind the scenes here at SSP, I told my co-editors that our daily series of Alaska mega-posts was over now that Lisa Murkowski conceded the race to Joe Miller. But like Dave Wakeling and Ranking Roger once said, I Just Can’t Stop It!

No Endorsement: We previously noted that Lisa Murkowski walked off the stage on Tuesday night without endorsing Joe Miller — and, for the time being at least, that continues to be the case. The Miller campaign is trying to get a chorus of Kumbaya going, but Murkowski can only muster up a “No comment” when asked if she’ll endorse Jumbo Joe. Democrat Scott McAdams was quick to capitalize on the disunity, going on local TV just before Murkowski conceded to tell Alaskans that he’s “a lot closer” to Murkowski’s “centrist” politics than the radicalism of Joe Miller.

Joe Miller, Pension Killer: This is what I like about Joe Miller — he’s not shy about heaping on the crazy. From an interview with CNN’s John King:

The party has hit Miller on Social Security, accusing him of wanting to “phase out” the program, a charge the candidate addressed Wednesday. […]

Ultimately, Miller said, he favors transferring power “back to the states so that states can take up the mantle of those programs if they so desire.”

Asked by King whether it would be fair to say a person born tomorrow might grow up in an America without a federal social security program if Miller had his way, the candidate responded, “Absolutely.”

Now, Miller defenders will be quick to point out that he’s not arguing to take away “the contracts that we’ve made with our seniors”, but good luck disarming that live grenade that Miller just handed you.

Standing On His Own, For Us: I’m not sure if the DSCC’s silence on this race since Miller’s primary win is a deliberate strategy not to taint McAdams with the disgusting touch of Washington, D.C., or if the committee still hasn’t figured out what its strategy is for this race. That’s why I like this kind of attitude on display from Scott McAdams:

It remains to be seen whether McAdams will receive support from the Democratic National Committee or the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. McAdams says it doesn’t matter.

“The DSCC and the national Democratic Party doesn’t even know my name. And that’s fine by me,” he said. “I love the Alaskan Democratic Party, they’ve been behind me 100 percent, Sen. Mark Begich has been behind me 100 percent, and that’s just fine by me.” …

“I’m not sure exactly what their strategy’s going to be. I’m not sure what their plan is,” he said. “This is a small population state. We can raise enough money to win. Nobody knew who Joe Miller was on the 31st of May.”

The DSCC appears to still be locked in “evaluation mode”, and the Associated Press reports that they’re going into the field with a poll to determine if their investment would be worthwhile. For his part, McAdams is taking his campaign to the next level thanks in part to the generosity of Mark Begich:

Ten days ago, Scott McAdams had a volunteer treasurer and a few thousand dollars to help him pursue the Democratic nomination for U.S. senator in Alaska.

With the shocking upset victory by tea party darling Joe Miller over U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski for the Republican nomination, volunteers and money are flowing his way.

A pair of staffers from the office of U.S. Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, are taking leave to assist the campaign. McAdams has hired a spokeswoman. […]

Wednesday evening, McAdams was listed among the top fundraisers on ActBlue.com, which helps Democrats set up fundraising campaigns for candidates, with $76,117 in donations. McAdams expects his campaign to have collected $100,000 by end of the week as Alaskans pitch in to help him defeat the Republican endorsed by former Gov. Sarah Palin.

“Things are ramping up,” McAdams said Wednesday in an interview at a picnic table in Anchorage’s Elderberry Park.

Indeed, Begich has been all over this action, sending out an email for McAdams in an effort to raise $250K in two weeks. (They’ve already made a dent in that figure.) Roll Call has more on the Democratic excitement on the ground:

“It’s night and day,” a Democratic source close to the campaign said about the feeling on the ground in the state since the primary. “People are excited. People are stunned.” …

“It is happening, and there’s a new surge of energy and excitement into Democratic headquarters out here,” Alaska Democratic Party spokeswoman Kay Brown said. “Scott’s a good guy, a real Alaskan, and I think he’s going to look good and compare favorably against Joe Miller.” …

The Democratic source said that McAdams could pick up Republican votes in places like the Aleutian Islands, which is home to the largest fishing port in the country and relies on significant federal funding – something some in the state believe could diminish with Miller in office.

“People are freaked out out here about this Joe Miller guy,” the source said.

Next on tap for McAdams: a $250-per-person fundraiser tonight at the home of state Sen. Hollis French. Happy to see French working it for Team Blue despite losing the gubernatorial primary to Ethan Berkowitz last week.

AK-Sen: Lulz. Ex-state Rep. Andrew Halcro is still carrying the torch for a Murkowski Libertarian bid, despite the fact that the Alaska Libertarian Party voted to reject having Murkowski on their ticket over the weekend. Halcro is telling The Hill (and anyone else willing to listen, apparently), that he thinks the Libertarians would be willing to reconsider, as long as Murkowski is the one who reaches out directly. And maybe he’s actually got something there, as the state Libertarian chair, Scott Kohlhass, said yesterday that “as a sitting senator, we’d always be open to sitting down and talking to Lisa Murkowski.” This is the same guy who, we remind you, previously announced that Murkowski was unwelcome on their ticket due to “fundamental differences”. Make up your minds already!

It’s also worth noting that Murkowski didn’t sound all that interested in carrying this fight on to the general election in her concession speech last night. While she didn’t endorse Miller, she spoke of her plans for the future, saying that she was looking forward to “coming home” at the end of her term. I don’t think a Libertarian bid, or a write-in campaign, is in the cards.

Meanwhile, the NRSC has been busy trying to convince the world that Joe Miller has this shit locked. On Monday, they released a Basswood Research poll (8/28-29, likely voters) showing Miller leading Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams by 52-36. PPP tested the race around the same time and found Miller ahead by only 47-39.

FL-Gov: The St. Pete Times is hearing “considerable buzz” that Bud Chiles, the son of legendary former Democratic Gov. Lawton Chiles, will pull the plug on his independent gubernatorial candidacy. Chiles, who seemed to be having a net-neutral impact on the race due to his support from Dixiecrat-flavored voters, reportedly was spotted having lunch with Democrat Alex Sink in Miami yesterday. Is an endorsement on tap?

WI-Gov: Jesus. Are these the kind of headlines that you really want to be generating?

Wis. cand. runs fighting ad aimed at attack victim

Scott Walker is up with a new ad in which he dons boxing gloves and vows to “go the distance” against Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Barrett, as you may recall, was brutally attacked while intervening in a domestic violence incident at the Wisconsin State Fairgrounds last summer, sustaining injuries from which he may never fully recover. Talk about not thinking through all the angles…

CT-05: GOP state Sen. Sam Caligiuri won the endorsement of the Independent Party of Connecticut yesterday, meaning that he’ll appear on the ballot against SSP hero Chris Murphy on both the Republican and Independent lines.

IA-03: Dem Rep. Leonard Boswell rolled out an endorsement Monday from architect Mark Rees… who was most recently seen losing the Republican primary for the nomination to challenge Boswell back in June. Rees, who drew 4% in the GOP primary, says that he’s backing Boswell because the Republican nominee, state Sen. Brad Zaun, is too far to the right “on all the issues”.

NV-03: AFSCME shelled out $750K for attack ads on GOPer Joe Heck, and they’re out with their second ad in the series, a thirty-second spot on the topic of Social Security privatization.

NY-24: Here’s a double-dose of bad news for Mike Arcuri. First, the New York Board of Elections recommended that Libertarian Ernest Logan Bell be removed from the ballot after coming up short on valid ballot signatures. (Never fear, fans of liberty, Bell’s encouraging his supporters to write-in his name in November.) Next, it seems that Arcuri’s “NY Moderates” Party line is in jeopardy. Republicans in the district pointed out the existence of a state statute that says that ballot lines aren’t allowed to include the words “New York.” Election officials say that may cause Arcuri’s indie line to go up in smoke, but are putting off a final decision on the matter until September 16th. Arcuri’s attorney, for what it’s worth, says that the party name will merely change to “Moderates”. Good luck with that.

VA-09: Benenson Strategy Group (8/18-22, likely voters) for Rick Boucher:

Rick Boucher (D-inc): 55

Morgan Griffith (R): 32

Is that too optimistic for Boucher? Perhaps, but it’s not entirely far-fetched, either. A July poll by SurveyUSA — not the most Dem-friendly pollster this cycle — had Boucher up by 52-39. Despite the bottom falling out for so many Democratic incumbents in tough districts, Boucher appears to have more staying power than some of his colleagues.

WI-07: At SSP, we always try to give you the Size Of The Buy where possible. We reported yesterday that the DCCC was hitting the airwaves with their first independent expenditure ad of the cycle against ex-Real World star Sean Duffy. Turns out the buy is for $36,500 — not breaking the bank by any means, but House party committees rarely saturate the airwaves in August.

I don’t believe the title needs further explanation.

Can you guess what this map is of?

The map up top is the 2008 race between Mark Begich and Ted Stevens, in which Begich prevailed by 1.25%.

If you guessed that correctly (without cheating), 10 points for Gryffindor. If you did cheat and look at the file name, boo on you too, but you can look at the Anchorage inset anyways:

Here’s a redux of the Murkowski-Miller race (blue for Murk, Red for Miller; Absentees not included):

And you can judge for yourself similarities between that at the 2008 GOP primary, Young-Parnell (Young in blue, Parnell in red):

I’m not that optimistic about Scott McAdams’ chances in November, but there does seem to be a path for him:

Areas of strong Begich performance are decently correlated with areas of strong Murkowski performance – or put differently – weaker Miller performance. Given that, this seems to bode somewhat better for McAdams, in that he could piece together the Begich coalition of Anchorage + Outlying Areas + Juneau for a win, pulling in disaffected Murkowski GOPers. Those areas (notably, GOP voters in those areas) weren’t exactly hopping for Miller.

The new tally:

More updates as we get ’em.

11:50pm: Y’know, I get a lot of spam from the DSCC. It’s been well over an hour since Murkowski has conceded, and the DSCC has yet to put out a statement on the results. Quite the operation they’re running there.

11:33pm: It didn’t occur to me to mention this, but Murkowski also said she’d be “going home” to Alaska at the end of her term — so it’s pretty clear that she won’t be attempting a write-in campaign.

11:21pm: One final ballot update for the night — Miller added 628 votes and Murkowski added 467, bringing the gap to 1,630 for Miller. Which wasn’t far off from where we started the day at!

10:28pm: Murkowski just walked away from the podium without endorsing Joe Miller. Game on!

10:21pm: Murkowski just conceded to Miller.

9:41pm: Murkowski will hold a press conference in twenty minutes.

9:40pm: Being generous, let’s say there are 7000 valid GOP votes left to be counted. Murkowski would need 61% of them to win. She’s done.

9:18pm: Murkowski is basically toast at this point, as she just couldn’t get the juice she needed from Anchorage or the Southeast. 15,700 votes were counted today, and a number of Kenai absentees will be added to the total later in the evening. Murkowski would have to win an absurd amount of the uncounted GOP ballots (which has to be, what, 7K or so at most?) to pull this out. Not happening.

9:04pm: Miller adds 1,062 votes to Murkowski’s 803 in the latest update. Miller’s lead has shot up to 1,469 votes.

8:24pm: So that last batch of votes came from Southeast Alaska, the Kenai Peninsula and Fairbanks — 3,000 more votes from these areas are expected tonight, but it’s starting to look pretty grim for Murkowski.

8:08pm: And we’re back! Since we last checked in, Miller added 1,057 votes and Murkowski took 1,139. The gap is now 1,210 votes.

7:20pm: SSP is taking a temporary break from the liveblog, but we’ll be back shortly. In the meantime, keep your eyes peeled on that DoE page!

7:08pm: We finally have a bit of movement — Miller picks up 353 votes and Murkowski adds 355. 50,241 to 48,949 for Miller.

6:50pm: The ADN reports that the next round of ballots to report will come from Southeast Alaska and the Kenai peninsula — about 5800 absentees and questioned ballots from areas where Murkowski is hoping to romp in. Following that, we’ll get a look at about 2750 votes from Miller-friendly Fairbanks.

5:54pm: In the comments, trhawk notes that it looks like the absentees from Anchorage HDs 27-32 have already reported, and possibly were bundled into the Mat-Su valley results. Murkowski won those HDs by nearly 55% on e-day, and if their absentees were lumped in with the Mat-Su update, that would explain why Murkowski appeared have run so much stronger in those Miller-friendly areas. Meanwhile, the ADN reports that Anchorage is done for the day, although 3000 questioned ballots and a “small number” of absentees remain to be counted there. The next round of votes to be counted will come from Juneau, followed by Fairbanks later in the evening.

5:24pm: Another update — Miller just added 322 votes, Murkowski 488.

5:19pm: From Shira Toeplitz:

There will be 1,273 fewer ballots processed today than planned. Election officials announced that a set of questioned ballots from four state House districts in the Mat-Su Valley area will be opened Friday instead of Tuesday. …During last Tuesday’s primary, the ballots in these four state House districts voted for Miller over Murkowski, 62 percent to 38 percent.

4:29pm: The Anchorage Daily News reports that the latest batch of absentees came from the Mat-Su valley, specifically House Districts 13 through 16. Crunching the numbers myself, on election day, Murkowski won 38% of the vote in those districts. Among the absentees, she’s picking up nearly 48% of the vote — a much bigger improvement than among the Anchorage absentees, but she still has a long way to go.

4:12pm: A bunch more votes just came in — we’re now at 49,566 for Miller and 48,106 for Murkowski. Miller added 1,515 votes and Murkowski added 1,380.

3:55pm: Mike Memoli tweets that Alaska DoE officials are expecting to count ballots until 10pm Eastern tonight.

3:36pm: Crunching the numbers using Jeffmd’s spreadsheet, Murkowski won House Districts 17 through 26 on election day by 53% of the vote. She won 57% from this batch of absentees.

3:25pm: Good news for Jumbo Joe Miller:

It looks like 2,391 votes were counted in this first batch. They’re from Districts 17 through 26, all Anchorage.

As noted below, Murkowski was expected to run strongly here. Miller-friendly areas will report later today.

3:16pm: It’s not yet clear where this batch of votes came from, but ADN reported that the first batch of results was expected to come from the Anchorage area, where Murkowski ran strongly. More votes are expected from the Mat-Su and Fairbanks regions later today, which are more Miller-friendly.

3:10pm: We now have our first update (of several to come) today. Miller added 1,024 votes to his tally today, and Murkowski added 1,367.

In lieu of an AM digest, let’s set the stage for what should be yet another dramatic day in the Alaska Republican primary saga.

Change Gonna Come: Since Wednesday, the scoreboard has been frozen like this:

438 of 438 Precincts Reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percent
Lisa Murkowski	45,359	49.10%
Joe Miller	47,027	50.90%

That will all change later today once the folks at the Alaska Division of Elections begin counting their first round of absentee ballots. According to The Hill, 7000 absentees are in the kitty, waiting to be counted today. Given that roughly 70% of the ballots cast on election day were in the Republican primary, we should see the needle move by around 5000 votes. The Anchorage Daily News, however, isn’t getting a straight figure from the DoE, while a Murkowski spokesbot claims that the number of votes counted today will be closer to 15,000 (out of over 25,000 currently uncounted). In any case, we’ll keep you updated as soon as the results are posted.

Paranoid: True to form, Joe Miller is calling for armed guards — or Alaska State Troopers, to be precise — to protect the regional elections offices from Lisa Murkowski’s legion of iPhone-wielding, Diebold-hacking “scrutineers”. The DoE says that Miller’s paranoia is unfounded, saying that there’s no way that NRSC/Murkowski consultant Mike Roman (who also worked on behalf of Norm Coleman during the ’08 Minnesota recount episode) could have tampered with any e-ballots. Murkowski is more or less calling Miller unhinged:

“I believe in our nation’s democratic process, it’s the envy of the world. I have complete faith in our system and I am astounded that Mr. Miller continues to make blatantly false accusations that there is something nefarious happening. Observers from both sides are at regional election offices to ensure that Alaskans get a fair vote count. For someone who wants to be Alaska’s Republican nominee for Senate, Mr. Miller is certainly afraid of Republicans,” Senator Murkowski said.

Burning Down the House: You just have to love how candid Joe Miller is in his radicalism. From a FOX Business News interview late last week (of course!):

“But out of the gate, Joe, what do you start with? Healthcare?” said Asman.

“Oh, absolutely. Defund it. I mean a repeal would be perfect but obviously that would get vetoed. So defund everything. Get rid of the socialist aspects of government, not just in health care but the other entitlement areas that are driving us into insolvency,” Miller said.

Miller went on to say that Congress should have the “courage to shut down the government,” if necessary, to eliminate government programs.

On anyone’s list, the entitlement programs that could drive the nation to “insolvency” in the decades ahead are topped by Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, which make up about 40 percent of the federal budget. […]

Miller has said he wants an “orderly transition” away from Social Security, to “privatize” or “personalize” it, while not reducing benefits for anyone who is “currently dependent” on the program.

Referring to Social Security, he told the Anchorage Daily News that “I think in the long run the answer is to get the government out of it, to privatize it.”

Regarding Medicare, he also wants an “orderly transition” to get the government out of that program as well because “The government has broken everything that it’s had its finger in.”

That’s Joe Miller, Pension Killer to his friends.

With a Little Help From My Friends: Here’s a refreshing change of pace — the Politico devotes two pages of text to Democrat Scott McAdams. The article puts the spotlight on the big support that McAdams is getting from Mark Begich, who’s quickly becoming McAdams’ biggest backer in the state. Begich, who not only helped talk McAdams into the race when no other Democrat of note was willing to take the plunge against Murkowski, has been sending staff and fundraising assistance to McAdams, and spent all of last week shopping the Mayor of Sitka around Anchorage.

Politico notes that Alaska Democrats had tried to lure former state legislator Walter Hensley into the race before McAdams jumped in just before the filing deadline, but couldn’t get Hensley to commit to a race against his “longtime friend and ally” Murkowski. There’s now some rumbling that Hensley would be interested in running against Miller, but that boat has clearly sailed. McAdams is standing firm, and the state party has lined up behind him. Begich sums it up:

“There’s no trade-in. There’s no swapping,” Begich said. “And part of the hesitation is that they don’t know Scott. But that’s what campaigns are all about. I didn’t know Joe Miller a few months ago.” […]

“This guy put his name on the line when nobody else would,” Begich said. “That takes a lot of guts and a lot of ability, in my view.”

Meanwhile, McAdams also secured the endorsement of national AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, who clearly liked what he had to see after Begich facilitated a meeting between the two. The Mudflats has the video.

Politico:

The Alaska Libertarian Party will not swap its chosen nominee for Sen. Lisa Murkowski if she loses the GOP nomination.

“We have decided that we will not offer the nomination to Lisa Murkowski for the Senate seat, even if came to that, because of fundamental differences,” said Alaska Libertarian Party Chairman Scott Kohlhaas.

The prospect of getting a sitting United States Senator to change colors must have been a hard thing to turn down for a party that doesn’t even have any elected state legislators, but at the end of the day, it seems that the Libertarians had too many issues with Murkowski’s voting record. At the end of the day, though, this is good news for Democrats: polling has shown that Democrat Scott McAdams has the best shot against Miller in a two-way race. Of course, now the possibility exists that Murkowski could run as a write-in, should she lose the GOP nomination to Miller.

In other Alaska news, the latest updated tally of uncounted votes is now north of 25,000: 15,720 absentees, 663 early votes, and 9,117 questioned ballots. The Alaska DoE says that about 7,000 votes will be counted tomorrow, which should give us a good indication of just where this race will end up.

Meanwhile, Joe Miller sounds like a 2004-era tinfoil hatter, as his attorney is sounding the alarm over Murkowski supporters potentially tampering with the state’s “vulnerable” Diebold voting technology with their iPhones. God, this cat fud looks so tasty that even I may need to take a bite!

Another day, another dose of protein-enriched cat fud from the bitter Republican ballot battle between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski. This is what it’s all about, people.

The New Math: The Alaska Division of Elections announced over the weekend that they now have 23,472 ballots (and counting) to process. That number includes 13,740 absentee ballots (out of 16,000 that were requested), 9,069 questioned ballots, and 663 uncounted early votes. It bears repeating, of course, that not all of these ballots are Republican, and that some will inevitably be invalidated rather than counted. The first batch of votes will be counted on Tuesday, with additional counts on September 3rd and 8th. We don’t know how many votes will be counted tomorrow, but the Anchorage Daily News is reporting that the DoE will determine the number at some point today.

Hope for Murkowski?: The Juneau Empire took a closer look at where the absentee ballots are coming from, and finds that a “slightly larger” portion of the absentees are coming from Murkowski-friendly areas:

The biggest portion of the ballots remaining to be counted are absentees, which share some significant traits with a type of ballot that has already been counted: early ballots.

Both early votes and absentee votes were cast by voters who sometimes weren’t exposed to the last days of the campaign, which saw Sarah Palin making automated phone calls to Republican voters on behalf of Miller and Tea Party Express-funded ads making attacks on Murkowski.

While Miller won election-day voting 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent, Murkowski won 54.1 percent to 45.9 percent among early voters.

About three-quarters of the votes cast Tuesday were in the hotly contested Republican races for governor, lieutenant governor and senator. If that margin holds and the absentee votes mimic the early votes, that could eliminate Miller’s lead, the Empire’s analysis shows.

Also, a slightly larger proportion of the absentee votes come from areas where Murkowski ran strongly. Her strongest areas were in Southeast, where she was born, in Anchorage, which she represented in the Alaska Legislature, and in the Bush. Miller, from Fairbanks, was most strong in the Interior and the Mat-Su Valley.

Fear and Loathing in the Mat-Su Valley: Joe Miller’s sure been off to a great start in displaying Senatorial temperament, first getting nailed by us for comparing the Murkowski/Libertarian Party situation to prostitution and now snarling in the direction of the NRSC:

Miller telephoned POLITICO Friday night, in an apparent preemptive strike against absentee-ballot challenges by Republican officials.

“We’re very disturbed over the fact that the National Republican Senatorial Committee has chosen to send a group of high-powered lawyers up here to Alaska to interfere with our election process,” Miller said.

“It appears that they’re trying to steal an election. The fact of it is, is that they only have one [goal], and it certainly is not the integrity of the election. It’s to skew the results against Joe Miller.” […]

“We’ve received calls from many people that have been queried – absentee voters who are asked who they voted for,” Miller said. “We believe that the votes ought to be counted appropriately, as they always have, without the interference of lawyers that are out there calling Alaskan voters to see how they voted, and without making challenges to the ballots.”

Way to make friends, Joe! Of course, Miller can publicly abuse the NRSC as much as he wants, and that organization will react as stony-faced as the Queen’s Guard staring down a throng of ill-mannered children. At the end of the day, the committee will offer their full support to Miller — should he be the nominee — but you can bet they’ll be grimacing on the inside if they need to do so.

In the Anchorage Daily News, Miller campaign spokesman Randy DeSoto doubled down on the allegations, saying that the NRSC is engaged in a “nefarious” scheme to “throw out ballots” marked for Miller. I note with some amusement that Miller is accusing Murkowski of attempting to “pull an Al Franken”, while also drawing attention to the fact that one of Norm Coleman’s recount lawyers is apparently providing assistance to Murkowski. I guess the phrase “pulling a Norm Coleman” doesn’t have the same cachet in teabagger circles.

The Libertarian Option: Joe Miller’s tweet became a lot more famous than the article to which it was attempting to draw attention, but there was some good dirt in that particular Daily Caller article from Alaska Libertarian chair Scott Kohlhaas:

Scott Kohlhaas, state chairman for the Libertarian Party of Alaska, told TheDC that a number of things have to happen before any decision is made. “Rumors are flying but I really have no comment on them because, I mean, Lisa would have to decide to do it and then our candidate would have to decide to voluntarily step down [and] then our executive committee would have to vote on a decision.”

Kohlhaas said he has no illusions about the fact that Murkowski is not a Libertarian, but says that having her run as one would be a way to get more publicity for the Party and possibly help the Party gain seats in state legislatures. “There are 7,000 state legislative seats out there and we don’t have one,” he said. “As far as getting the name out there, this episode is doing that much better than any one state legislative seat would. And in terms of morale for our Party a state [senator] would be a real gain for us.”

At the end of the day Kohlaas recognizes that having Murkowski run as a member of the Libertarian Party would certainly “confuse some people because she is not libertarian.”

“But that happens all the time. Our job is to educate and get the philosophy out there,” he said. “If we decide to do this it will advance the Party and believe me we won’t do this for nothing.”

Kohlhaas said that it will ultimately be up to David Hasse to decide if he would be willing to step aside.

“Yesterday, he was inclined to do this but today maybe not,” Kohlhaas said.

A lot of “ifs” there, of course. Murkowski certainly has her share of supporters who would like to see her commandeer the Libertarian line, including Andrew Halcro, who says that he’s shelling out for a Dittman Research poll in order to see how Murkowski would do in a three-way race against Miller and Democrat Scott McAdams. (Of course, we’ve already seen a poll like that, but perhaps Dittman will find more encouragement for Murk.)

Facing the Nation: Miller appeared on CBS yesterday to give us all a taste of his overwhelmingly tea-stained agenda, and he had headlines like this one to show for it back home:

Miller: Alaska should forgo federal help

Uncle Ted this guy ain’t! Miller also stuck by his openness to privatize Social Security, moderating himself only to say that those who have paid into the program already can keep their benefits (this despite also suggesting that Medicare and Social Security are unconstitutional). How magnanimous of him! Of course, that’s the kind of talk that tickles the erogenous zones of the nutters at the Club for Growth, and The Creative Team Who Brought You Bill Sali is now saying that they’ll direct fundraising dollars to Miller.

The Real Deal: Meanwhile, tacked on at the end of a piece on the booming salmon harvest up in Alaska, we have some more color on Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams, who sounds like a staunchly reality-based dude:

At a press conference after the primary election, McAdams, who grew up in Petersburg, said commercial fishing “goes to the core of my identity.”

“I learned to read, write and reason in a town where 85 cents on the dollar came from commercial fishing,” McAdams said. “I spent five years as a deckhand working in fisheries throughout the state.

“I seined in Southeast, Kodiak, I hand-bait longlined in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. I have an appreciation and a great affinity for the lifestyle and the culture, and for the need for commercial fishing in our state.”

McAdams also picked up the endorsement of the Alaska AFL-CIO over the weekend (along with his fellow Democratic ticket-mates… and EFCA-backer Don Young). I’m looking forward to hearing more from and about McAdams once this Republican cat fud buffet is closed.