Tag: Governor

Democratic incumbent governors are facing some tough races in 2010, but fortunately the Democratic Governors Association will be in a position to help in key states.

Link:

The Democratic Governors Association raised $23.1 million in 2009, more than ever before in the organization’s history, and will start the 2010 election cycle with nearly 12 times as much cash on hand as 2006, the last equivalent election cycle, Chairman Gov. Jack Markell announced today. […]

The DGA’s 2009 fundraising marks the second year in a row and the first off-year in which the DGA raised more than $20 million. Fourth quarter fundraising was by far the strongest, with more than $7 million in contributions received during the period. December contributions alone totaled nearly $4 million.

The record-breaking fundraising means that the DGA begins 2010, the most critical gubernatorial cycle in a generation, with $17.5 million on hand. In the equivalent election cycle in 2006, the DGA carried over $1.5 million and spent less than $14 million on races that year.

The Republican Governors Association has historically outraised the DGA by wide margins. In spite of the fundraising gap, since 2007, the DGA has won twice as many targeted governors races as the RGA. The DGA’s strong cash-on-hand position means that it will be able to spend at a competitive level with the RGA in this critical cycle.

Losing the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia was painful enough, and I am glad to know that those campaigns didn’t deplete the DGA’s cash reserves.

Here in Iowa, Governor Chet Culver may need the DGA’s help to keep pace with Republican expenditures. Culver held lots of fundraisers during the fall, but he also spent money running a couple of television commercials statewide. The leading Republican challenger, Terry Branstad, probably pulled in big numbers during the fourth quarter, although he will have to spend a lot of cash before the Republican primary in June. The other strong Republican candidate, Bob Vander Plaats, has a lot of support from conservative activists and should have the resources to run a solid campaign.

An alert Bleeding Heartland reader got a recorded phone call around dinnertime Monday, featuring former Republican Governor Terry Branstad.

Apparently there were a couple of questions about how Governor Chet Culver is doing and his handling of spending and the budget. Branstad’s recorded voice touted his own record on economic policy.

The call also asked if the listener would support a constitutional amendment limiting marriage to between one man and one woman, and if the listener would vote for Branstad in the upcoming Republican primary.

According to my e-mail tipster, the call said it was paid for by the Branstad for Governor comittee, and gave a phone number as well as the address for Branstad’s campaign website.

This particular household has two registered Democrats and no registered Republicans, and the homeowner has had the same phone number for more than 15 years. So I figured either the calling firm was using a bad list, or Branstad’s campaign is reaching out to find Democrats who aren’t happy with Culver.

Since I posted about this robocall at Bleeding Heartland, a bunch of other Iowa Democrats in households with no Republicans have reported receiving the same call, including State Representative Tyler Olson of Cedar Rapids. It seems clear that the target universe for this call was active Democratic voters.

If Branstad’s campaign is trying to identify Democrats willing to cross over to vote for him in the Republican primary, it makes me wonder what his internal polling says about the GOP race. I’ve been assuming that Bob Vander Plaats has virtually no chance of overcoming Branstad’s financial and institutional advantages during the primary, but if Marco Rubio can catch up to Charlie Crist in Florida, maybe Vander Plaats can win by running to Branstad’s right.

Several polls have shown Branstad leading Culver by a substantial margin, although the latest Iowa poll for the Des Moines Register undercut Branstad’s electability argument somewhat by showing Vander Plaats leading Culver as well. Perhaps Republican voters will come to believe they can beat Culver with the man favored by social conservative activists as opposed to Branstad, who was drafted by elite Republican donors.

Since former Governor Terry Branstad started campaigning for governor again, I’ve been hoping that Bob Vander Plaats could capture the attention of national right-wingers looking to “take back” the GOP from establishment types. Democratic incumbent Chet Culver would be much better off facing Vander Plaats in the general election.

Vander Plaats is campaigning as a more reliable conservative than Branstad. Among other things, he promises to bypass Iowa’s constitutional amendment process, issuing an executive order on day one of his administration to halt same-sex marriage in Iowa until the public has had a chance to vote on the issue.

Self-styled constitutional expert David Barton is one of the few “scholars” who believes a governor can overturn a state Supreme Court ruling by executive order. This week he endorsed Vander Plaats.

From Barton’s statement:

“Bob Vander Plaats epitomizes the leadership our Founding Fathers envisioned when they stood up for our individual liberties,” Barton said in a prepared statement. “He knows that it’s the hard work and unfettered creative spirit of individuals made this country and states like Iowa great. He knows that more bureaucracies, more government employees, higher taxes and increased government spending will crush Iowa. And, he’ll articulate that message in winning fashion.”

Barton founded the socially conservative WallBuilders organization, based in Dallas. Here’s some background on his vision for America, chock full of Biblical interpretations supporting right-wing public policies. Barton gave the keynote address at the Iowa Christian Alliance fundraiser this fall (click that link to watch videos). His organization hosts a large annual “ProFamily Legislators Conference.”

Barton’s endorsement may help Vander Plaats raise money from around the country as well as recruit volunteers in Iowa. Vander Plaats will particularly need financial support from out of state in order to compete with Branstad, who built relationships with many major donors and local activists during his four terms as governor.

Vander Plaats already has the backing of former presidential candidate and current Fox TV host Mike Huckabee as well as pop culture icon Chuck Norris. Vander Plaats also was featured on the cover of Focus on the Family’s national magazine in November.

Could Vander Plaats become the darling of wingnuts nationwide? Branstad is not a social moderate, but he has flip-flopped on some tax and budget-related issues in a way that won’t impress the teabagger set.

With the withdrawal of barely-candidate pharmabiz guy, Kansas Democrats are in need of a gubernatorial candidate.

At this point, Some Dude would be a step up. But I think Kansas Democrats can do better.

We can get someone credible. Yes we can.

Gov. Mark Parkinson– Why won’t he run and save us from Brownback? He is the A List. He just issued this statement, which is actually his softest yet on the re-election question, which he’d heretofore always strenuously denied:

Asked whether he would reconsider running for the office, Parkinson said in a statement: “The 2010 elections are still very far away. In the meantime, I am focused on responsibly balancing the budget and getting Kansans back to work.”

So who knows?

State Sen. Anthony Hensley– Competent state senator, senate minority leader, definitely has solid enough experience and likely the best of the rest on paper, at least. He already acts as a strong opposition leader, putting out a statement against Brownback’s preemptive attacks on Wiggans, so he won’t roll over. Could raise decent money. From Topeka, which is among the swingiest and better-populated places in Kansas.

Con: Might be better in the State Senate? Or prefer it? Has lots of votes Brownback can attack.

Joshua Svaty – State Agriculture Secretary – Pro:experienced former State Representative from red Ellsworth recently appointed to his current position. Young, attractive fifth-generation farmer with solid NRA ratings. And his Dad got his seat when he left it and now his Dad is all into it! How cute is that! NRA-approved, rural-friendly moderate male will also have big potential crossover appeal.

Con: Just got appointed, might be prohibited from campaigning in office. Might be better to let him gain experience and not encourage him to sacrifice his career on in a race where he’d be the David to Goliath.

Good bio: http://www.kansasfreepress.com…

Alan Jilka – former Salina Mayor– Pro: Former Salina Mayor, was going to be the “sacrificial lamb candidate/maybe they’ll nominate an actual Nazi and I can win candidate” for the open seat in KS-01. He could switch over without any great loss.

Con: No one knows who he is, if he can run the state, or if he can raise money to match Brownback’s millions. Salina only has 42,000-ish people.

Dan Hesse – CEO of Sprint – Pro: Wealthy businessman, but not a total a-hole by most accounts. According to a survey by Glassdoor, he’s by far the most popular telecom CEO according to his employees, which helps since there are literally thousands in this district. l don’t know if he’s even a Democrat…but if he’s unaffiliated, and switched to the Democrats to run for Governor, I totally think he could win a primary. KS Dems are a pretty pragmatic bunch.

Con: I don’t know if he lives in KS, but Sprint’s headquartered there. Don’t know if he’s a Democrat or would even consider running.

Official Sprint bio: http://www2.sprint.com/mr/ex_d…

Rolf Potts – Travel Writer – I told ya, crazy. Pro: From Salina, lots of family there, maintains family farm there. Founded Vagablogging and is a successful small businessman. Kinda almost famous.

Con: Probably would rather be a travel writer and too footloose and worldly. Never held office.

Bio: http://www.rolfpotts.com/bio

Burdett Loomis – Univ. of KS Professor of Political Science – Pro: Would be seen as knowledgeable about politics while also being very non-partisan. Has some experience as “Director of Administrative Communications, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, 2005.” The KU connection would drive up his vote share in Douglas & Johnson Counties.

Con: An academic, no business experience, no elected experience. Kansas State connection would drive down his numbers in Manhattan.

KU Bio: http://www2.ku.edu/~kups/peopl…

Chris Steineger – State Senator – Okay, yes, he’s an elected official and not supposed to go in this section. But what’s his deal? He seemed to look at a run then decide against it. Nice website but hasn’t been updated recently.

Pro: Experienced elected official and would not have to give up his seat to run. Wonky. Seems fairly competent.

Con: Would be seen a liberal. And urban. All that and his reduce-the-state-to-13-counties plan would be stir up rural fear. Also majorly on the outs with the state party and recently told KC Star: “The party insiders just can’t get their stuff together,” Steineger said. “I lay it on them. They’re dysfunctional. I think it’s directly their fault that we’re in this situation.” Not helpful.

Interesting profile: http://cjonline.com/opinion/20…

I’m sure we can throw out some more names, no? There’s 50-ish Democrats who are State Reps, what about any of them?  

What about Jill Docking? Rematches are always fun, right? I probably forgot someone obvious, too so help me out….  

And now it’s time to throw out some unexpected names. Kansas SSPers, please brainstorm with me. Let’s get crazy.

Developing a line of attack he has used before, Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Vander Plaats asserted yesterday that Terry Branstad’s past support for Democratic Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska makes Branstad partly responsible for any health care reform bill Congress passes this year.  

From the Vander Plaats campaign press release of November 23:

“Ben Nelson gave Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid the vote he needed to get the 60 votes to steamroll Republican opposition. It means the Democrats will be able to proceed with legislation that will effectively destroy our private health care system while saddling businesses and working families with hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes and limiting our access to care,” said Vander Plaats, who is seeking the 2010 Iowa Republican gubernatorial nomination. “Whatever happens from here on out, Terry Branstad is going to have to accept some responsibility because he was a very active supporter of Ben Nelson in his first campaign for the Senate.”

Several Senate Democrats have said their vote for cloture over the weekend was merely in favor of allowing debate on the health care bill. However, their votes opened the process for a final vote that only requires 51 votes to win passage of any legislation.

“In other words, it’s more politics as usual where Ben Nelson will be able to vote against the bill later and insist he opposed the government takeover of health care. But the real vote was Saturday and the Democrat that Terry Branstad supported as a ‘conservative Democrat’ sided with Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi,” Vander Plaats said.

Branstad, who contributed $1,000 to Nelson’s general election campaign on May 31, 2000 and $250 to Nelson’s 2006 campaign on July 17, 2002,  stood beside Nelson on May 31, 2000 at a news conference and endorsed the former Nebraska governor, saying, “It’s all right to help your friends. If he were in Iowa, he probably would be a Republican.”

Vander Plaats said, “We’re all going to pay an extremely high price for that friendship and that’s especially true for thousands of Iowans who work in the insurance industry. If Ben Nelson really did think like an Iowa Republican he would’ve voted no this weekend – just like Chuck Grassley did. Once again, this proves that elections have consequences and ideologies have consequences. The Democrats want to control us with our own dollars by taxing us more to pay for their ridiculous health care plan and Terry Branstad helped give them the leverage to do it.”

To my knowledge, Branstad did not get involved in Nelson’s unsuccessful 1996 Senate campaign against Chuck Hagel. By 2000, Branstad was no longer governor and probably never imagined he’d run for office again.

Todd Dorman of the Cedar Rapids Gazette mocked the Vander Plaats attempt to blame Branstad for health care reform, but my hunch is that this argument will resonate with some Republican primary voters.

The conservative noise machine has and will continue to whip up intense opposition to the Obama administration’s so-called “socialist” agenda. If Democrats defeat another Republican filibuster with exactly 60 votes, the media will emphasize that every Democrat voted to let the bill proceed.

By itself, Branstad’s past support for Nelson might seem insignificant, but it could reinforce doubts some conservatives already have about Branstad’s loyalty. Vander Plaats has gone out of his way to remind audiences that his running mate will share his values. Branstad picked pro-choice Joy Corning for lieutenant governor during his last two terms. Many of the business leaders who helped recruit Branstad for this race supported Mitt Romney for president, and Romney’s not the current favorite among Iowa Republicans.

The Branstad campaign struck a dismissive tone in its response to yesterday’s attack:

“Governor Branstad does not favor the health care reform bill being considered by the Senate. It spends too much money we don’t have and does nothing to create the jobs we so desperately need,” Tim Albrecht, a spokesman for Branstad, said in a written statement.  “Bob would do well to keep the focus on that and not violate Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment.”

They’ll have to do better than that as the campaign goes forward. There are plenty of vulnerable points in Branstad’s record, and Vander Plaats won’t be the only Republican attacker. Branstad is raising tons of money and rolling out endorsements, but Vander Plaats should have enough cash to get his message across statewide. He was featured on the cover of the November issue of Focus on the Family’s nationwide magazine, and last Friday, Chuck Norris hosted a $5,000 per couple fundraiser for Vander Plaats at his Texas ranch. If we’re lucky, national Teabaggers will get involved in this race too. They might be encouraged by the recent Des Moines Register poll showing Vander Plaats ahead of Governor Chet Culver.

I assume Branstad will have the resources to win the Republican primary next June. That said, I doubt he can spend the next six months asking his rivals to follow Reagan’s 11th commandment. Besides, Branstad has already broken his own rule by criticizing Vander Plaats’ proposal to halt same-sex marriage in Iowa by executive order. At some point Branstad will have to defend his past actions, and whatever he says probably won’t satisfy his detractors on the right wing.

Any thoughts on the Iowa governor’s race are welcome in this thread.

This is according to Rasmussen so it could be another push poll.  Gov Brewer is a distant third.  They also give Arpaio with a big lead over Goddard, ehich sounds VERY suspect.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

If Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio decides to seek the Republican nomination for governor of Arizona, he will enter the race as the clear favorite. Incumbent Governor Jan Brewer places third in an early look at the 2010 GOP gubernatorial race.

Election 2010: Arizona Governor GOP Primary

Brewer

10%

Arpaio

47%

Martin

22%

Munger

6%

Parker

6%

Some other candidate

3%

Not sure

7%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Jan Brewer (R)

35%

Terry Goddard (D)

44%

Some Other Candidate

9%

Not Sure

12%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Joe Arpaio (R)

51%

Terry Goddard (D)

39%

Some Other Candidate

7%

Not Sure

4%

2010 Arizona Governor Race

Dean Martin (R)

38%

Terry Goddard (D)

40%

Some Other Candidate

11%

Not Sure

11%

 

Kansas Democrats are on their way to presenting the strongest slate of candidates in years with respected businessman Tom Wiggans‘ announcement that he will run for Governor. Wiggans, a native Kansan, will run against career politician, and well known right-wing Republican, Sam Brownback.

From his bio:

Tom Wiggans is committed to applying his vast business experience to Kansas state government as our next Governor. By utilizing his common sense business practices to bring people together and solve problems, Tom will work with both Democrats and Republicans to pull our state out of the economic recession, ensure we have a stable state budget, and create 21st century jobs for our future.

His campaign has also put together a bio video which you can see here.

More about Tom Wiggans and his campaign below the fold.

Tom is exactly what Kansas voters need right now. A successful businessman who isn’t going to let rigid ideology guide his decisions. Our state has been hit hard by these challenging economic times. Tom has the vision and experience to weather the economic storm, create 21st century jobs and improve our schools. If you’d like to learn more, or get involved you can check out his website here.

From his bio, here are some other interesting facts about Tom Wiggans:

Born and raised in Fredonia in Wilson County, Kansas

Tom lives in Olathe, KS with his wife Kathryn and two teenage daughters

Tom is the Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board of Peplin, a bioscience company developing a product for skin cancer and other serious skin diseases

Served as a Page to Representative Clyde Hill

Graduated from the University of Kansas with a Bachelor’s Degree in Pharmacy

Member of the board of Trustees of the University of Kansas Endowment Association

As usual, I will continue to update you on the political scene in Kansas and how you can get involved with the party and campaigns. If you’re interested in helping today, here’s some easy things to do:

Tom’s website launched today and you can get involved by clicking here.

Click here to introduce Tom on Twitter:

Big news: Businessman Tom Wiggans has announced his campaign for Governor. Get involved: bit.ly/3MoU1X (Please RT!)

Click here to introduce Tom on Facebook:

Tell your Facebook friends to get involved with Tom’s campaign for Governor!

Thanks for your continued support.

Full disclosure: I work for the Kansas Democratic Party.

2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont announced today that he’s filing papers this afternoon for a possible run for governor in 2010.  

Excerpt from his e-mail blast and website announcement:

Since the 2006 campaign for Senate, I have continued to meet with citizens across our state – as co-chairman of the Obama campaign in Connecticut, founder of a state policy institute at Central Connecticut State University, and as an oustpoken advocate for health care reform. I have been constantly reminded during these conversations that Connecticut is not living up to its potential and that too many of our families are still being left behind.

Whether it has been health care and the economy, losing jobs, young people leaving the state, or the never-ending budget crisis, we have all seen our state head in the wrong direction.

Simply put, Connecticut’s current Chief Executive is not getting the job done.

Governor Jodi Rell’s approval rating has come down quite a bit this year, but she’s still at 57 percent approve/38 percent disapprove in the Pollster.com average. Then again, Lamont didn’t shy away from a longshot campaign in 2006, so he may be ready for another challenge.

I’d like to hear from SSP readers who are familiar with Connecticut politics. Could Lamont make a race of this? Would he be the strongest potential challenger against Rell? How would having him in the governor’s race affect Senator Chris Dodd’s re-election campaign?

Democratic Governor Chet Culver’s campaign started running its second television commercial today, a 30-second spot focusing on the governor’s response to last year’s flooding and this year’s budget shortfall. (A few weeks ago Culver ordered a 10 percent across-the-board cut in the current-year budget.)  

Like the commercial Culver ran last month, this ad emphasizes that the governor cut spending and his own salary in order to balance the state budget during this recession without raising taxes. I think the ad is well-crafted in terms of script and visuals, but like Bleeding Heartland users IowaVoter and dricey, I am concerned when Democrats rely heavily on Republican anti-tax messaging. Culver may be reinforcing conservative frames and limiting his future policy options if he does win re-election.

Des Moines Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich highlighted another potential problem not long ago:

Gov. Chet Culver vowed to balance the state budget without raising taxes. And yet a third or more of Iowa school districts might end up raising property taxes as a direct result of the cut to state school aid ordered by Culver.

Is the governor breaking his promise? Well, no. And yes.

When Culver talks about avoiding a tax increase, he really means income and sales taxes – the two major revenue streams for the state. He’s referring to tax increases that he would have to sign into law. In that sense, he hasn’t raised taxes.

But he acknowledges that property taxes are a concern. Culver says he’ll ask the Legislature next year to require school districts to use their cash reserves before raising taxes.

Republicans are already blaming Democrats for the property tax increases many Iowans will experience next year. Their outrage is hypocritical, because the state cuts affecting education and local governments would have been far more severe if not for the federal stimulus bill, which included aid to state governments. Of course, Republicans denounced the stimulus package and bashed Culver for using these federal funds for their intended purpose: to help backfill the 2009 budget.

In any event, Democrats should be wary about staking next year’s campaign on “we didn’t raise your taxes during this recession.” That won’t be a comforting message to Iowans who have to pay a larger property tax bill in September 2010.

The polling for Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in New Jersey is all all over the map. Actually, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a wide split.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/…

Governor Corzine and his campaign have done a terrific job in getting this far. Indeed, at the end of August it looked all over with Christie consistently hitting 50 percent. But even then there was always the nagging feeling that you never say never with regard to a Democrat in New Jersey.

The basis for this is the positive numbers for Republicans throughout this decade in the state – the 2004 Presidential race, the 2006 Senate race, the 2008 Senate and Presidential races. In each case of course the Democrat went on to win comfortably.

Further, and what I was particularly interested in here, there is the belief that the final polls will favor Republicans by at least a couple points. A hidden Democratic vote if you will. So, is this fact or merely wishful thinking?

Here are the final polls in each case mentioned earlier. I’ve included the 2005 gubernatorial race for obvious reasons.

2004 President

Result –

Kerry +6

Final Polls –

(Strategic Vision) TIE

(Quinnipiac) Kerry +5

(Star-Ledger) Kerry +4

(Survey USA) Kerry +12

(Rasmussen) Kerry +12

(FDU Public Mind) Kerry +7

2005 Governor

Result –

Corzine +10

Final Polls –

(WNBC/Marist) Corzine +5

(Rasmussen) Corzine +5

(Survey USA) Corzine +6

(Quinnipiac) Corzine +7

(Monmouth/Gannett) Corzine +9

(Star-Ledger/Rutgers) Corzine +6

(Fairleigh Dickinson) Corzine +2

(Strategic Vision) Corzine +6

(Stockton College-Zogby) Corzine +7  

(Record/Research 2000) Corzine +9

(New York Times) Corzine +9

2006 Senate

Result –

Menendez +9

Final Polls –

(OnPoint Polling and Research) Menendez +9

(Quinnipiac) Menendez +5

(Strategic Vision) Menendez +7

(USA Today/Gallup) Menendez +10

(Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy) Menendez +7

(Monmouth University/Gannett) Menendez +3

(WNBC/Marist Poll) Menendez +8

(Rasmussen) Menendez +5

(Fairleigh Dickinson/PublicMind) Menendez +10

(Reuters/Zogby International) Menendez +12

(Rutgers/Eagleton) Menendez +4

(Zogby Interactive) Menendez +6

(CNN/Opinion Research Corporation) Menendez +7

(Research 2000) Menendez +6

(CBS News/New York Times) Menendez +1

(Bennett, Petts & Blumenthal) Menendez +9

(Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg) Menendez +4

2008 President

Result –

Obama +15

Final Polls –

(Rasmussen Reports) Obama +15

(Monmouth University/Gannett) Obama +21

(Survey USA) Obama +10

(Fairleigh Dickinson University) Obama +18

(The Record/Research 2000) Obama +16

(Strategic Vision) Obama +15

(Marist College) Obama +17

(Quinnipiac) Obama +23

2008 Senate

Result –

Lautenberg +13

Final Polls –

(Survey USA) Lautenberg +15

(Strategic Vision) Lautenberg +8

(Marist College) Lautenberg +7

(Quinnipiac University) Lautenberg +22

(Monmouth University) Lautenberg +16

(Rasmussen Reports) Lautenberg +14

(Fairleigh Dickinson University) Lautenberg +16

So from that I get the following:

1) The Democrat outperformed the polls only in 2005 and 2006.

2) The most accurate pollsters in the state are probably Quinnipiac and Monmouth.