Tag: KY-Sen

(Cross-posted from the AFL-CIO Now Blog.)

 

The fight for a pro-working family government doesn’t end with the race for the White House. Around the country, union members in key states are looking to elect new members of Congress who will help turn around America.

 

The Kentucky AFL-CIO has announced endorsements in key races for U.S. Congress and Kentucky AFL-CIO President Bill Londrigan says these candidates, and the issues they’ll fight for, will help mobilize union members to win this fall.

[We] endorsed on the basis of their of support for the issues of critical importance to Kentucky’s hard working men and women: good jobs, the right to organize, health care for all, retirement security and education and training opportunities.

Topping the list of the Kentucky endorsees is Bruce Lunsford, who’s running for U.S. Senate against Mitch McConnell, the Republican minority leader who’s led the fight against working family-friendly policies like a real economic stimulus bill and children’s health insurance.

McConnell is behind the strategy of obstruction that has allowed a minority of senators to block important legislation like the Employee Free Choice Act. He consistently has voted for Bush nominees for key federal agencies, including the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MHSA) and the Department of Labor (headed by his wife, the worker-unfriendly Elaine Chao). In short, McConnell is the Senate’s key enabler of the anti-worker agenda. Lunsford has pledged to support the Employee Free Choice Act and to work with union members as they fight to ditch Mitch.

In addition to supporting Lunsford, Kentucky unions gave their strong endorsement to two incumbent House members and a challenger. Endorsements went to Democratic Reps. John Yarmuth of the 3^rd District and Ben Chandler of the 6^th District, as well as to Democratic state Sen. David Boswell, who’s running for the 2^nd District seat left open by retiring Republican Ron Lewis.

Union members were crucial to the stunning 18-point victory for Gov. Steve Beshear last November, and the Kentucky AFL-CIO is looking to build on its success with these endorsements for the U.S. House and Senate.

In addition to working to elect Lunsford and Boswell and re-elect Chandler and Yarmuth, Londrigan says the Kentucky AFL-CIO will focus on exposing the record of Sen. John McCain.

In Oklahoma, state Sen. Andrew Rice is running against Sen. Jim Inhofe, another Republican who regularly votes against working family-friendly policies on health care, wages and the freedom to form unions. Rice, who Oklahoma AFL-CIO President Jimmy Curry called “a good friend of working men and women,” won the endorsement of the Oklahoma AFL-CIO on Tuesday.

In Idaho, where Republican Sen. Larry Craig won’t be returning to the Senate, former Democratic Rep. Larry LaRocco has won the endorsement of the Idaho AFL-CIO. Idaho AFL-CIO President David Whaley says members of the Idaho AFL-CIO’s Executive Board were impressed by LaRocco’s commitment to working family issues and his visits to work sites around the state.

The working families of Idaho are struggling to raise families, pay their taxes, support education, care for their aging parents and cope with the continued increase in health care costs. Larry LaRocco has been working in jobs all across Idaho and has heard first-hand about the challenges they face in their lives. When he is elected he will continue to work alongside these same families and make sure their voices are heard through his expressed support of the Employee Free Choice Act. We are proud to endorse him for the U.S. Senate.

The effort to elect more working family-friendly members of the House and Senate is an essential part of this year’s unprecedented mobilization of millions of union members.

So with eight months to go, I figure it’s time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So I’ll rank these in terms of tiers.  The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent’s party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching.  The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point.  Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play.  And the safe seats?  Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know.  That’s because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don’t follow the national races like we do.  Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.

Tier I

1. Virginia: Incredibly popular former Governor Mark Warner (D) is running for this seat that opened up when John Warner (R), no relation, announced his retirement.  Warner left the governorship with a whopping 80% approval rating.  That’s freaking unheard of.  He’ll face another former Governor, Jim Gilmore (R), who some of you may remember tried running for President last year.  Gilmore was known as the governor who helped drive the state into near-bankruptcy with his car tax cut, and Warner as the one who fixed the problem when he took over for Gilmore.  Rasmussen Reports released a poll two weeks ago showing Mark Warner would CRUSH Jim Gilmore, 57%-37%.

2. New Hampshire: John Sununu (R) is about to become 2008’s version of Rick Santorum.  Democrats could run a ham sandwich against him, and it would be a competitive race.  No, really.  But why settle for a ham sandwich when you can run the former governor?  Jeanne Shaheen (D), who Sununu beat in 2002 thanks to some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken.  The latest from the University of New Hampshire shows her leading 54%-37%.  Rasmussen shows a closer race, with her leading 49%-41%.  A general rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble.  Under 40%, and you can start writing their political obituary.  Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent.

3. New Mexico: When Pete Domenici (R) announced he was retiring, it suddenly turned this former Tier III seat into a top tier race.  Rep. Tom Udall (D) announced for this seat shortly thereafter.  Yes, he is part of the famed Udall political family; his father Stewart served as Interior Secretary under JFK, and his uncle Mo was an Arizona Congressman for 30 years, also running for President in 1976.  Stewart Udall was largely responsible for just about all the environmental laws that were passed in the 1960s.  The GOP side will feature a primary fight between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce.  So the entire New Mexico U.S. House delegation is running for this Senate seat!  Before Udall even entered the race, hypothetical matchups from Research 2000 and SurveyUSA showed him crushing both GOP opponents by over 15 points.  But a more recent Rasmussen poll shows a closer race, though with Udall still hitting the 50% mark in both matchups.  The main New Mexico blog questioned the accuracy of the poll, given their matchup showing Obama tied with McCain, defying the trends you see in other states.

4. Minnesota: Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  With two top challengers in comedian Al Franken and lawyer Mike Ciresi, Coleman had a change of heart on Iraq, actually criticizing Bush over his handling of Iraq for the first time in years.  And the polls have been steadily favoring the Democrats, especially Franken.  While earlier polls showed Coleman leading by double digits (though under the 50% mark), both Democrats have been steadily closing the gap.  And in February, three polls came out showing Al Franken either leading Coleman or basically tied: Minnesota Public Radio (Franken 43.2%, Coleman 40%), Rasmussen (Franken 49%, Coleman 46%), and SurveyUSA (Coleman 47%, Franken 46%).  Ciresi doesn’t seem to do as well.  Franken is showing himself to be much more than just a comedian.  In 2007, he raised close to $7 million from over 81,000 people!  The Minnesota SEIU, a decent-sized union, just endorsed Franken too.  In case you’re wondering, there’s no “primary” for the Democrats, but rather the nominee will be picked at the party convention this June among about 1,400 delegates.

5. Colorado: Wayne Allard (R) kept his pledge of only serving two terms, and is retiring from the Senate.  Democrats have cleared the path for Rep. Mark Udall here.  He’s Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  On the GOP side, former Rep. Bob Schaffer is the likely nominee.  Colorado has been trending bluer recently, picking up a Senate seat in 2004 (Ken Salazar), and a congressional district and the governor’s office in 2006.  Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors.  At the end of 2007, Udall was sitting on a $3.6 million warchest, with Schaffer trailing by over $2 million.  Money isn’t everything, but damn.  Dick Wadhams (no, really, that’s his name) is taking over Schaffer’s campaign. Wadhams got Allard first elected to the Senate, and became a rising start in the GOP for managing John Thune’s 2004 win over Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in South Dakota.  But, he was also in charge of managing George Allen’s 2006 re-election bid in Virginia, sending him from a 20-point lead seven months out to defeat.  (Allen revealing his inner racist greatly helped, too.)  However, recent Rasmussen polling shows Schaffer barely edging out Udall, so this race is far from a given pickup.

6. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) is the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008.  But how endangered that really is remains to be seen.  She was able to win in 2002, a decidedly strong year for the GOP.  Karl Rove was able to woo state treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to switch parties to run for re-election to State Treasurer as a Republican last August, and after winning, he announced he would challenge Landrieu for her Senate seat.  Party switching actually seems rather common in Louisiana.  And hundreds of thousands of residents from New Orleans and the surrounding areas never came back to the state after Hurricane Katrina, making it even more red than it used to be.  Bobby Jindal (R) didn’t even need a runoff to win the governor’s race last year, getting over 50% of the vote on the first ballot and performing stronger than expected.  So that doesn’t bode well for Landrieu’s chances.  The good news for her is that she raised over twice as much as Kennedy did in the fourth quarter last year (October – December) and has almost 10 times as cash on hand as he does.

7. Alaska: Ted Stevens (R) is always a candidate for retirement, being 85 years old now, but says he will seek a sixth term.  But Stevens is in some legal trouble, with the FBI having raided his home last June in connection with possible bribes from Veco Corp., where several executives have already pled guilty to bribing his son Ben, who was the former state senate president.  Former Veco CEO Bill Allen admitted some bribe money also went towards Ted Stevens.  Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich announced he was forming an exploratory committee (the first step in running).  His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972.  A Research 2000 poll from December showed Begich already leading Stevens 47%-41%.

8. Oregon: Gordon Smith (R) has two challengers in lawyer/activist Steve Novick (D) and Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D).  Smith’s approvals from 2007 are not as good as they were in 2006 and before.  We’ll see if that trend continues.  The state party itself is in financial trouble too, facing over a quarter million dollars in debt, and the IRS is calling for some missing payroll taxes.  Rasmussen polling still shows Smith with double digit leads over both Democrats, but he is under the 50% mark.  Interesting to note, Smith is actually a cousin to the two Udalls running for Senate.

9. Maine: Susan Collins (R) doesn’t have the stature that fellow Senator Olympia Snowe (R) has.  Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Collins.  But even though Maine is a blue state, he’ll have an uphill climb.  Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials.  The most recent polls all show Collins over the 50% mark, with almost 20-point leads over Allen.  And the Maine newspapers suck.  I mean, really suck.

10. Texas: John Cornyn (R) has some pretty anemic poll numbers, and the immigration issue seems to have triggered a change in the Latino community.  State rep. Rick Noriega (D) got a nice boost when wealthy trial attorney Mikal Watts (D) dropped out of the race and threw his support to Noriega, ensuring a united Democratic front against Cornyn in November.  Noriega is also Lt. Col. in the Texas National Guard, served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina.  Earlier polling shows Texans are largely dissatisfied with Cornyn, and a baseline poll from last September showed Cornyn beating Noriega 51%-35%, with only 40% saying Cornyn deserved re-election.  And that was before Watts dropped out of the Democratic primary.  The Texas GOP seems to be concerned about this race, as they recently demanded Noriega release his military records… to them.  Instead, Noriega released his records to the entire public and denounced their swiftboating tactics at the same time.  Well played, sir.  However, the fundraising numbers are troubling, with Cornyn having outraised Noriega by more than a 4-to-1 margin in the fourth quarter, and Noriega trailed by almost $7 million in cash on hand to end the year.

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races.  These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Kentucky: Even though Mitch McConnell (R) became the Senate Minority Leader, he is a top target of the Democrats.  And with former Governor Ernie Fletcher (R) losing his re-election bid to Steve Beshear (D) 59%-41% last November, that made Kentucky Democrats even more confident.  But then Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo (D) and State Auditor Crit Luallen (D) both declined to run, and netroots favorite Lt. Col. Andrew Horne (D), a Marine who has served in both the Persian Gulf War and the Iraq War, dropped his bid.  Rasmussen had shown both Stumbo and Luallen holding McConnell under the 50% mark, and for the Senate Minority Leader who can bring home the pork, that showed significant dissatisfaction with McConnell in Kentucky.  Now, the Democratic establishment seems to have coalesced around wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford, who’s lost several primaries before, and ticked off a lot of Democrats by endorsing Fletcher over Ben Chandler (D) for Governor back in 2003 after losing the primary to Chandler.  The blogs are, ah, less than pleased.  We’ve yet to see how Lunsford would match up against McConnell.

Mississippi-B: Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, won’t have all the incumbency power Lott had accumulated over the years.  Wicker was the Congressman from MS-01, so he’s won elected office previously.  But Democrats scored a huge get when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove announced he was running for Senate, and former Rep. Ronnie Shows (D) ended his campaign, deferring to Musgrove.  Some polls have shown this matchup would be close.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, all eyes had turned to former Nebraska Governor and Senator Bob Kerrey (D) to see if he would challenge for this open seat.  But, he announced last October that he wouldn’t run.  But Mike Johanns (R), who was also a former Governor of Nebraska, quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for the seat.  The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring.  While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote.  That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race.  Of course, that doesn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor of the state.

South Dakota: Tim Johnson (D) is fully back at work after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006.  His illness had made Republicans hesitant to challenge or attack him.  Governor Mike Rounds (R) would be a top challenger, but hasn’t made any indications that he will give up his governorship for the seat.  And when polling shows Johnson may be the most popular Senator in the country, why would he?

Tier III

Alabama: The Democrats’ top hope in Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks announced he was not running, leaving little-known state senator Vivian Figures (D) the only challenger to incumbent Jeff Sessions (R).  But… with the recent 60 Minutes piece on former Alabama governor Don Siegelman (D) being sent to prison on incredibly flimsy charges which Karl Rove may have had a hand in, those of us who’ve been following the story know that the guy who supposedly gave illegal contributions to Siegelman had also done the exact same thing with Sessions.  And it seems Sessions was desperate enough to try and kill the 60 Minutes story before it aired.  So there’s a chance Sessions will get ensnared in this growing scandal, in which case his seat may not be so safe.  But for now, it’s still Tier III.

Idaho: It’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin.  While LaRocco finished 2007 with more cash on hand than Risch, he had been raising money for most of 2007, while Risch only jumped in after the Larry Craig airport bathroom… ah… incident.

New Jersey: Frank Lautenberg (D) said he’s running again, but his age is always a concern, as he is already 84 years old right now.  His poll numbers also don’t look that good, but no New Jersey politician’s numbers ever look really good.  But no top-tier challenger has yet stepped up to challenge him.  Anne Estabrook (R) recently plopped $1.6 million of her own money into her campaign, but when she answers questions like this, Lautenberg may not have much to worry about.

North Carolina: Both Governor Mike Easley (D) and state rep. Grier Martin (D) decided not to run for this seat, giving Elizabeth Dole (R) some good news.  The declared Democrats are state senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal.  The blogosphere seems to be supporting Neal in this race.  FYI, if Jim Neal were to get the Democratic nomination and then beat Dole in the general, he would be the first openly gay Senator in U.S. history.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) looks pretty safe, though interestingly enough, Inhofe has never gotten to 50% approval in the history of SurveyUSA’s polling.  State senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks, has declared for this race.

South Carolina: This race is only in Tier III because Lindsey Graham (R) may actually be primaried out of his own party, for his support of Bush’s immigration plan.  The natives are restless.  A party switch is much less likely, but a different senator serving in this seat come 2009 is a distinct possibility.

Tennessee: Well, businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of former Tennessee Governor Ned McWherter (D), announced back in November that he was not going to run for this seat, a blow for Democrats.  But, former Tennessee Democratic Party chair Bob Tuke announced last week that he will run.  It remains to be seen if Tuke can make this a real race against Lamar Alexander (R), who was also a two-term governor of Tennessee and the Secretary of Education under George H.W. Bush.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden, so safe I forgot to include him last time)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand at the beginning of March.  Things can still change if some candidates jump in or drop out.  But the filing deadline has already passed in some states, so getting our dream candidate in some of these races has already passed.  And we won’t know what the national mood will be 8 months from now.  Still, given that, these are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc.  Have at it, folks.  🙂

Make of this what you will:

Bruce Lunsford, a wealthy Louisville businessman, declared his candidacy for Senate just before Tuesday’s filing deadline, and becomes the frontrunner in the crowded fight for the Democratic nomination. […]

“Last November, Kentuckians embraced change and elected a good man, Steve Beshear (D), to serve as Governor and he will deliver,” Lunsford said in a statement. “This November, Kentuckians should again embrace change and bring Mitch McConnell back home to Kentucky where he belongs. Today, I filed paperwork to enter the race for United States Senate because I can bring Mitch home.”

Beshear, who defeated Lunsford in last year’s gubernatorial primary, called Lunsford “an exceptionally strong candidate,” though he stopped short of offering an endorsement.

Lunsford will square off with another rich dude, Greg Fischer (a CEO of a company that offers “stadium and bleacher solutions”), Iraq vet Andrew Horne, and a merry band of also-rans.

Not being a fan of Lunsford’s two gubernatorial runs, I’m waiting to be impressed by this bunch.

That’s what it looks like.

After making a bunch of noise about a potential Senate bid against Mitch McConnell — and against any Democrat who was considering the race — outgoing Kentucky Attorney General Greg Stumbo openly mulled the possibility of returning to the state legislature instead.

It looks like the road is now clear for Stumbo to return to his old state House seat.  The district’s current incumbent, state Rep. Brandon Spencer (D) abruptly resigned his seat tonight, after previously indicating that he would run again.  Stumbo will release a statement tomorrow morning.

I think we can put two and two together here.  Thanks for spending so much time dissing Crit, Greg!

UPDATE: Stumbo has made it official.

It’s official: Andrew Horne, an Iraq vet and Louisville lawyer, is in the race to challenge Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  MediaCzech has the scoop in the diaries, and Page One has Horne’s online announcement video.

The biggest hurdle that Horne now faces is showing that his campaign can raise some serious dollars in order to raise his statewide profile.  Horne’s only prior political experience in Kentucky was losing the 2006 KY-03 primary to John Yarmuth.  While no candidate could out-raise McConnell at this point, Horne would have to raise a significant amount to be competitive.

You can find Horne’s official website here.

(crossposted at BlueGrassRoots)

The People-Powered Candidate of 2008. The Jim Webb of 2008. The man that will finally take out Senator Mitch McConnell.

I give you the next Senator from KY: Lt. Col. Andrew Horne.

For Immediate Release Contact: Susan Dixen

Thursday, December 13, 2007 502.759.0772

ANDREW HORNE ANNOUNCES CANDIDACY FOR U.S. SENATE IN KENTUCKY

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He is the problem,” said Andrew Horne

Louisville, KY – Lt. Colonel Andrew Horne (Ret.) launched his campaign today to take back the U. S. Senate seat for the people of Kentucky, now held by Mitch McConnell. Horne, while a Marine and Reservist, served tours of duty Desert Storm and recently in Iraq. Horne outlined his decision to run and what he plans to focus on as Senator in a video released on the internet this morning.

You can watch the video at AndrewHorne.org. The full text of it available on the site, as well.

“I’m running for U.S. Senate because it’s time for a change and because Senator Mitch McConnell is more than part of the problem. He IS the problem. It is time for Kentuckians to take our government and country back. We should not be told to take a backseat to the wealthy and powerful. It’s time to tackle the challenges facing our country instead of passing them off to our kids. It’s time for leaders who’ll take the right stand,” Horne says in the video.

“Mitch McConnell, the Republican Leader, symbolizes everything wrong with Washington. He bows to big business, practices the worst kind of politics, and doesn’t take a stand when faced with tough issues. Simply put: Mitch McConnell carries George Bush’s water on Iraq; I carried a rifle in Iraq” he added.

Horne noted that under the Bush-McConnell regime, Washington politicians have:

   *

     failed to fix our health care crisis;

   *

     sendt our jobs to China and Mexico;

   *

     failed to lead on immigration reform;

   *

     ran up a nine trillion dollar debt for our children, and

   *

     led our country into an ill-conceived and mismanaged war in Iraq.

Horne also noted yesterday that the Bush-McConnell obstructionism has continued to hinder progress, pointing to the latest example, the President’s veto of S-Chip fully supported by McConnell.

In the coming weeks and months, Horne will lay out his proposals to benefit the people of the commonwealth.

ABOUT ANDREW HORNE

Andrew Horne was born to working, middle-class parents, who for 30 years owned and operated a series of small businesses in Louisville, including Horne Cleaners and Clubfit International, a golf equipment and supply store. Just before graduating from Pleasure Ridge Park High School, he enlisted in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve and, soon after commencement, headed to Parris Island, S.C. for boot camp.  Horne worked his way through the University of Louisville, and in 1983 became the first in his family to graduate from college.  He later earned a degree from University of Louisville’s Brandeis School of Law, after fulfilling his six-year active duty contract with the Marines.

After tours overseas in both operations Desert Storm and Iraqi Freedom, Horne retired this year from the Marines as a lieutenant colonel.

Horne, his wife Stephanie, and their two children are members of Louisville’s Christ Church United Methodist, where he’s taught Sunday School. Horne serves as the spokesperson for the Brain Injury Association of Kentucky, leading the Wounded Warriors program which provides resources and relief to those suffering from this “signature” wound of the Iraq war. He also has been active with the Toys for Tots campaigns, the Marine Corps Coordinating Council of Kentucky, Boy Scouts of America, Junior Achievement and Boys’ State of Kentucky. He is a member of the Louisville Bar and American Bar associations. He previously served as a senior advisor to VoteVets.org, a pro-military group that supports Iraq and Afghanistan veterans running for office.

For more info on Andrew Horne, here’s my interview with him last month:

Lt. Col. Andrew Horne was kind enough to answer some questions that I had for him. Here is the transcript:

ME: You were registered independent before you decided to run for Congress against Anne Northup in 2006. Why had you remained Independent up until that point, and what factored in your decision to join the Democrats?

AH: Since enlisting as a Marine in 1979, I was registered as an Independent voter, believing that as a Marine my duty was to my country, my loyalty to the Constitution, and not a particular political party or president. But my political perspective changed after completing my last tour in Iraq.  I saw first hand how the Bush administration’s civilian leaders mismanaged the war and misled the American people. I saw our Republican leaders repeatedly ask working people and middle class families to bear the greatest sacrifice, while asking little of the wealthiest and most powerful. For these reasons, I changed my party registration from Independent to the Democratic Party.  As a candidate with my background, the discussion will be about ending the war responsibly and taking on the real challenges facing American families, such as health care, education and economic and retirement security.

ME: Many in the media are claiming that the “surge” strategy is working in Iraq. How accurate do you think such claims are?

AH: To determine if the escalation is “working” we must begin with what the goals were at the time it was initiated and our desired end state for Iraq.   If our end state is political reconciliation leading to stability it has not been a success.  If our end state is more of our troops in harms way protecting Iraqis then it has been a success.   However, few would argue that having more of our troops risking their lives every day to keep their fingers in the proverbial dike is a good thing or a desirable consequence, particularly when it does not appear there is any end in sight.  From these parameters it is clearly not working.  The question is how long do we cling to the hope that the Iraqi leadership will step up and do what needs to be done.  I for one believe the Iraqi leadership will allow us to carry their water for them as long as we are willing.  If we send a clear message that we will leave soon they will step up.  The current Basra situation is an example of what could happen if we leave- much to the chagrin of the Bush administration the British pulled out of Basra and defying all predictions violence dropped by 90%.

ME: What type of reaction do you get from fellow Marines that you served with when they hear how critical you are of President Bush’s policies in Iraq?

AH: Marines’ attitudes are not monolithic, and they are as diverse as the general population.   However, most of the Marines I speak to are supportive and tell me I am doing the right thing, particularly if they have seen combat in Iraq.

ME: What do you make of the saber rattling going on amongst the Bush administration when it comes to Iran?   Is this even a viable option at this moment, or is this just for show?

AH: The Iran situation is serious and should not be underestimated.  The administration seems to be eager to increase tensions and the saber rattling is just one example.  The rhetoric could be intended to pressure the Iranians to the table; however, Bush does not always act prudently and he could be considering some form of preemptive action.  From my perspective, there do not seem to be many viable options for the use of force given our current force structure and other commitments, but if history has taught us anything it is not to misjudge the extent of Bush’s hubris.

ME: Do you think that McConnell’s two filibusters on Sen. Jim Webb’s amendments to restore proper troop rotation between tours will hurt his support among the military in KY, particularly Western Kentucky?

AH: Absolutely.  Mitch McConnell prevented voting on the Webb Amendment that would have given our troops more time between tours of duty in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The people that join our military are patriots who are willing to make enormous sacrifices for our country and our way of life.  Those sacrifices, however, are not being shared by the rest of our society and the same people are asked again and again to shoulder the burden.  This has not been lost on Veterans.  Mitch McConnell will be held accountable.  In this vein, I want to share a note that I read on the “Draft Horne” website:

   Dear Mr. Horne,

   My husband is currently serving his 2nd fifteen month deployment in Iraq. I am asking you to please run against Mitch McConnell in 2008. I wrote to Mr. McConnell asking him to request more MRAP's for our troops, and received no response. When I wrote him regarding Rush Limbaugh's comments about "phony soldiers", I received a letter defending Rush as a consistent supporter of our troops. This seems very lopsided to me, and I believe that someone like you could make a really big difference in Congress. Please run.

ME: Outside of policies dealing with Iraq and Veterans, what are your major criticisms with Mitch McConnell’s performance in the Senate?

AH: I strongly believe Senator Mitch McConnell is taking us down the wrong path.  McConnell has given President Bush, big business and corrupt lobbyists a blank check and rubber stamp for their selfish agenda. He is unwilling to address the healthcare crisis.  He votes against legislation that would control college costs for regular people.  He is blatantly loyal to corporate interests above the interests of working people and the middle class.  However, if I were to have one principal complaint it would be his gross partisanship.  In that last 7 years he has been one of the most strident enablers of the Bush fiasco and since the midterm elections he has been the most vocal, effective and smug obstructionist in the Senate.   By his conduct it is clear that he does not care what is good for Kentucky, the United States or the people; his primary concern is his own survival and the political success of the Republican Party.

ME: Many Democrats around the country are currently upset with their party, particularly for not following through on their promises when they won back Congress last fall. How valid do you think such complaints are, and do you share any of them?

AH: The message from the electorate during the last elections was stunning and the Democrats have not acted on that message.  So I do believe that much of the criticism is fair; however, the Republican’s have sufficient votes in the Senate to filibuster and Bush can still veto so the Democrats do not have an unfettered ability to enact legislation completely of their choosing.  The Democrats could have forced the issue in regard to funding of Iraq by not sending up alternative legislation absent affirmative statements by McConnell and Bush that there would be some compromise.

ME: During the nomination process of AG Mukasey, there was much discussion of what defines torture and what defines “enhanced interrogation techniques”. How familiar are you with waterboarding, and does this constitute torture?

AH: All politics aside, waterboarding is absolutely torture.  It is prohibited by the Army interrogation manual, which is used by all of the armed forces of the United States.  If Soldiers, Marines, Sailors or Airmen waterboard a prisoner they can and probably will be prosecuted under the Uniform Code of Military Justice for “Abuse of a Prisoner.”  End of discussion.

Let me say that I do not know if the politicization of words is a new phenomenon but it is new to me.  When I was in Iraq during a command briefing to Ambassador Negroponte we were all amused to learn from the Ambassador that we were not supposed to use the words “insurgent[s]” or “insurgency,” apparently the approved words were “terrorist[s]” and “terrorism.” [In his defense he seemed as amused as the rest of us.]  When I came home I was surprised and amused when I was questioned about whether the attack into Iraq was an “invasion” or “liberation.”  [I wasn’t aware there was any real question about that.]  The games being played by Bush, et al would almost make me laugh if they weren’t so disturbing.

ME: Many candidates in the Republican Presidential debates have boasted about “doubling Gitmo”, channeling “Jack Bauer”, and saying the most important civil liberty is “staying alive”. What are your thoughts on this kind of talk?

AH: I am unsure how a rational person can comment on those types of attitudes.  Torture and detention centers are not things that anyone should boast about.  We must not forget that moral standards are vital to success in warfare and school yard attitudes about strength and toughness have no place in serious debate.  I wrote an Op Ed for the CJ right before the 2006 midterms entitled “Tough Is Not Enough”, which addresses these issues in more detail.  (ME: full transcript here)

State Auditor Crit Luallen has made her final decision — she won’t challenge Mitch McConnell next year:

Luallen, who won a fresh four-year term as state auditor last month, had emerged as the favorite of several prominent Kentucky and national Democrats to challenge McConnell following the party’s strong showing last month when Democrat Steve Beshear routed Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher.

But Luallen said in a statement Friday that “I have no plans to enter the race.”

“I have just been re-elected as state auditor and look forward to continuing to serve the citizens of Kentucky in that capacity,” she said.

It looks like Louisville attorney and Iraq vet Andrew Horne is gearing up to take her place:

Horne said Friday he planned to make a final decision soon but added, “I am a likely candidate.”

He said he put “some things on hold” while Luallen considered the race. “But obviously I’m going to turn things up again and start moving toward” his own run, he told The Associated Press in a phone interview.

Horne has some connections from his advocacy work with VoteVets.org, but it will be a tough climb for him to build the fundraising network he needs to counter Mitch McConnell’s $10 million (and counting) war chest.  On the other hand, should Horne make some noise here, I wouldn’t be surprised if money from all kinds of national sources would flow into his coffers.

Still, the loss of Luallen as a candidate is a setback here.

UPDATE: The Bluegrass Report reports that national Democrats are turning their attention to ’04 Senate candidate and current Lt. Governor-elect Dan Mongiardo.  If he bites, this would be a surprise.

Tough news for those of us hoping that Democrats would field a top-tier challenge to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell:

Two high-profile Democratic officials who had considered taking on U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell next year are signalling that they’re less likely to take the plunge after all.

State Auditor Crit Luallen, in addition to losing key advisers to incoming Gov. Steve Beshear’s administration, has told party leaders in Washington that she’s decided against running, and that word has filtered back to Kentucky.

And outgoing Attorney General Greg Stumbo, who started an exploratory committee to consider the race, is saying that he’s now looking at getting his old job back as state representative from Floyd County.

“I represented that district for over 20 years and still live there. They have a representative up there now who is doing a good job,” he told the Herald-Leader this week. “But I love the state House. It’s an option.”

He would have to win the seat back first through a primary against freshman state Rep. Brandon Spencer, D-Prestonsburg, who has said he plans to run for a second term.

Stumbo hasn’t officially ruled out the U.S. Senate. He said he plans to “talk to some folks in Washington” before announcing his decision after Beshear’s Dec. 11 inauguration.

Who else do we have on tap?  Andrew Horne, who lost the 2006 KY-03 Democratic primary, is still thinking about it:

Should Luallen and Stumbo both officially bow out in the coming weeks, that will shift the party’s attention to Andrew Horne, a Louisville lawyer and Iraq war veteran who ran second in the 2006 Democratic primary for Congress in Louisville.

Horne said yesterday that he told Luallen that he wouldn’t run for U.S. Senate if she did, but is now “starting to gear up again” for a bid of his own. “It appears that Crit is not going to do it, but I haven’t heard it first-hand from her,” he said. “There was kind of this informal deadline earlier this week.”

Democrats may turn their hopes to a wealthy self-funder — there have been a few names tossed around of this sort in recent months, but if Luallen backs out, it’s clearly a blow to Democratic hopes.

[Originally posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Mitch McConnell’s first ads are up, and McConnell is so desperate, he’s running on Democrat Alben Barkley’s record! I’m not joking. As DMKY’s Sonka points out:

And I can’t wait for the Club for Growth to see this ad!!! This is a love letter to pork and federal government spending through earmarks. Calling Senator Forgy!!!

Speaking of Larry Forgy, The Hill has some interesting commentary on his likelihood of entering the 2008 Senate race:

But that could soon change for McConnell, with opponents lining up not only on the Democratic side but from an angry Republican-turned-Independent as well.

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Forgy has made no secret of his anger over what he sees as McConnell’s role in dividing the state party by throwing Fletcher under the bus at the onset of his administration’s scandals and backing former Rep. Anne Northup in the GOP primary last spring. He believes this led to Fletcher’s defeat this week. …

But Forgy is furious, and he told The Hill Thursday he is not ruling out an independent bid to unseat McConnell, though he insists he doesn’t want to be a spoiler.

Forgy, who was the party’s nominee for governor in 1995, said he is “pretty sore” at McConnell and the state party for what he sees as their betrayal of Fletcher.

“The only difference between that and cannibals is that cannibals normally don’t eat their friends,” Forgy said.

A Larry Forgy primary challenge would force McConnell to spend money and weaken him for the general election against the Democrat. A Larry Forgy independent bid in the general election could mean curtains for McConnell! Running as an independent would make the Club for Growth no less likely to financially back Forgy – in fact, it could make them more likely since the CfG would probably like to back non-Republican candidates who share their philosophies, to extend their cred. I wholeheartedly support Forgy’s decision to run as an independent, should it come to fruition.

Kentucky Democrats aren't wasting any time after ousting Republican Gov. Ernie Fletcher. Capitalizing on the momentum coming out of Tuesday's election, they're already planning strong challenges to members of the state's Republican congressional delegation. The first target appears to be Rep. Ron Lewis, who will soon face off with State Senator and former Agriculture Commissioner David Boswell: 

Democratic State Sen. David Boswell of Owensboro said he is planning a press conference “in the very, very near future” to officially announce his candidacy to challenge Republican U.S. Rep. Ron Lewis of Cecilia.  “I do plan to run for the U.S. Congress in the 2nd District,” Boswell said yesterday. “I think people, overall, are ready for change. They're ready for a new guard.”  Boswell, who was agriculture commissioner from 1984 to 1988 and has been a senator since 1991, said the win by fellow Democrat Steve Beshear in Tuesday's governor's race gives him and other potential candidates for next year's election a huge boost.

However, Lewis' district might be a tough nut to crack as it clocks in with a PVI of R+12.9. While Kerry took 34% of its vote in 2004 and Gore only claimed 37% in 2000, Lewis was softened up a bit in 2006 by a challenge from state Rep. Mike Weaver (D), who held him to a 55%-45% win.  Weaver's campaign never really caught much traction, despite the DCCC's hope that he was a top tier recruit.  We'll see if Boswell can mount a more effective campaign, but Mark Nickolas over at the BluegrassReport feels good about him. 

Kentucky Democrats are also hoping to recruit State Auditor Crit Luallen to take on US Senator Mitch McConnell. Luallen cruised to re-election with 59% on Tuesday night and could offer McConnell a strong challenge.