Tag: Mississippi

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore (D) and former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) both released statements signaling their interest in the open seat of retiring Sen. Trent Lott last night.  In both cases, decisions will be coming “soon”.

Moore:

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore (D) released a statement Monday evening sure to give Democrats hope. “Like most Mississippians I was surprised by Trent Lott’s decision to resign from his Senate seat,” Moore said. “As for me, I appreciate all the calls I have received from friends, colleagues, and supporters today encouraging me to run. I will make my decision soon.”

Musgrove:

Democrat Ronnie Musgrove – who served one term as governor before being defeated by Barbour in 2003 – said Monday he is “seriously considering” running for the Senate seat Lott is leaving.

Musgrove said in an interview that that even though the South has been largely Republican over the past several years, “people in the South are just as frustrated and concerned about Washington not doing anything about the spiraling cost of health care, the increased cost of gas, the shaky economy and the housing problem.”

Musgrove said he’ll make a decision in the next few days. He said running a Senate race would cost millions of dollars.

So Republican crumb-bum Haley Barbour wants to use his “executive privilege” to hand-pick Trent Lott’s successor instead of calling for a special election.

The only problem?  The law, while not exactly worded artfully, indicates that a special election would be required if Lott retires before the New Year:

(1)  If a vacancy shall occur in the office of United States Senator from Mississippi by death, resignation or otherwise, the Governor shall, within ten (10) days after receiving official notice of such vacancy, issue his proclamation for an election to be held in the state to elect a Senator to fill such unexpired term as may remain, provided the unexpired term is more than twelve (12) months and the election shall be held within ninety (90) days from the time the proclamation is issued and the returns of such election shall be certified to the Governor in the manner set out above for regular elections, unless the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election, in which event the Governor’s proclamation shall designate the general election day as the time for electing a Senator, and the vacancy shall be filled by appointment as hereinafter provided.

And, as Kos notes, Lott will most certainly be jumping ship before 2008.  He’s not in this to do any favors for the GOP — he’s in this to cash in on some of that K Street scratch, and to do so in short order, he’ll have to avoid the “revolving door” legislation which will make him subject to a two-year ban on lobbying activities.  When the choice is getting a fat stack of cash as a corporate crony or doing a solid for Team GOP, the choice is easy for a guy like Lott: take the money and run.

So, as election law guru Rick Hasen contends, Haley is bending the law — if not breaking it — by insisting that the special election coincide with the November 2008 elections:

I agree with the reporter from The Hill that if Sen. Lott retires this year (as he has an incentive to do to be able to lobby his colleagues in one year, rather than two under the new lobbying law), Gov. Barbour would have to call an election in early 2008, not November. As I read the statute, the Governor has 10 days to issue a proclamation setting a special election after receiving official notice of the vacancy, and it must be set within 90 days from the time of the proclamation. The only exception to this rule applies when “the vacancy shall occur in a year that there shall be held a general state or congressional election.” In that case, the election is set for the same as the general election date. So the key question is the date of the “vacancy,” not the date of the official notice or the date of the proclamation of the special election. If Lott indeed resigns in 2007, the vacancy is in 2007 and the election must occur under the 10/90 day rule described above.

However, the Mississippi Secretary of State agrees with Barbour:

The Mississippi secretary of state’s office said early Monday that state law appeared to require a special election within 90 days if Lott retires in 2007. After consulting with lawyers, however, a spokesman said the secretary of state concurred with Barbour based on a technicality in the letter of the law.

In an exception to the 90-day rule, the law says the governor “shall designate” the special election for the same day as the general election if a vacancy occurs the same calendar year as a statewide election. Mississippi had a statewide election earlier this month, so Barbour would be setting the special election for the next statewide election in 2008.

The secretary of state in Mississippi is Eric Clark, a third-term Democrat. His spokesman agreed that Barbour was using a technicality.

“That’s exactly what it is,” spokesman Kell Smith said. “And we agree with that.”

I’m not lawyer, but this seems like a pretty obvious distortion of the intent and spirit of the law to me.  Could it be challenged in court?  I certainly hope so, and the Mississippi Democratic Party is spoiling for a fight on this issue.

The importance of having a prompt special election is pretty clear: if Barbour is allowed to railroad his hand-picked crony into the Senate, that appointee will have the advantages of incumbency for nearly a year.  If a Democrat like Mike Moore is to have a good shot at this race, the best bet is a special election within 100 days of Lott’s retirement, just like the law requires.

Building upon retirement rumors, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) told a local paper he'll make up his mind about running for re-election within “a few weeks.” I generally believe that a sitting politician who delays announcing their re-election plans is leaning against another term. 

The article also notes that Cochran is enjoying less influence in the Senate under the Democratic majority, having lost his committee chairmanship and other perks. In addition, Cochran told the paper in an interview before last year's election that his plans would be impacted by which party took control of the Senate. And we all know how that turned out.

While Cochran could probably hold his seat as long as he wants it, an open seat would present an opportunity for popular Mississippi Democrats such as former AG Mike Moore or former Governor Ronnie Musgrove.

(h/t to S2G) 

Let’s tally up all the turnovers in statewide and legislative races last night.  Democratic pick-ups are in blue; Republican pick-ups in red.  Italics denote a close race that appears to be going to a recount.

Kentucky: Governor/Lt. Governor (59%)

Maine: ME-HD93 (53.8%)
New House margin: 90D–59R–2I

Mississippi: Secretary of State (59%; open), Insurance Commissioner (57%; open), MS-SD02 (61%), MS-SD04 (57%), MS-SD18 (52%), MS-SD29 (57%), MS-SD43 (52%), MS-HD01 (54%), MS-HD15 (58%), MS-HD43 (47%), MS-HD71 (53%), MS-HD99 (52%), MS-HD111 (50%)
New Senate margin: 28D–24R (Chamber flip)
New House margin: 75D–47R

New Jersey: NJ-SD01 (56%), NJ-SD02 (57%), NJ-SD12 (54%), NJ-AD02, NJ-AD08, NJ-AD12, NJ-AD14.
New Senate margin: 23D–17R.
New Assembly margin: 48D–32R.

Virginia: VA-SD01 (51%), VA-SD06 (54.4%), VA-SD34 (55.1%), VA-SD39 (51%), VA-HD21 (57.5%), VA-HD34 (51.5%), VA-HD51 (51.8%), VA-HD68 (54%; Independent-to-Republican turnover), VA-HD83 (50.6%)
New Senate margin: 21D–19R (Chamber flip)
Hew House margin: 54R–44D–2I

If we missed something, please let us know in the comments.

Today’s the day! Below is a list of poll closing times and races to watch in five states:

State	Polls Close	Races to Watch	Results	Key Blogs
Kentucky	6pm and 7pm EST	Governor/Lt. Gov, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner	KY SoS	Bluegrass Report
Mississippi	8pm EST	Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer, Agriculture Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, SD18, SD29, SD43, SD46, SD52, HD12, HD20, HD43, HD99, HD102	MS SoS	Cotton Mouth
New Jersey	8pm EST	SD01, SD02, SD08, SD12, SD39, HD01 (x2), HD02 (x2), HD08 (x2), HD11 (x2), HD12 (x2), HD14 (x2), HD39 (x2)	NJ.com	Blue Jersey
Ohio	7:30pm EST	OH-05 Special Primary	OH SoS	BSB | ODB
Virginia	7pm EST	SD01, SD06, SD22, SD27, SD28, SD33, SD34, SD37, SD39, HD32, HD33, HD34, HD40, HD50, HD51, HD52, HD67, HD83, HD86	VA SBE	Raising Kaine

Special thanks to The Green Papers, which was the source for several of the poll closing times. One note: the New Jersey state House races are listed slightly oddly, as each numerical district actually has two seats up for grabs.

If you have any races happening in your area that aren’t on this list, let us know in the comments. And if you’d like to give any predictions for any of today’s contests, now is the time to share them. How many counties will Ernie Fletcher win in Kentucky? Will Bob Latta prevail in Ohio? How far will Virginia Democrats go?

Other useful links: PoliticsNJ’s race ratings | WaPo’s key Virginia races

(From the diaries. Share your thoughts on Mississippi’s 2007 elections here. – promoted by James L.)

Louisiana has had their jungle primary and Democrats held on to the both chambers of the state legislature, the Lieutenant Governorship, and are heading into run offs for Agriculture Commissioner and Attorney General. Before these runoffs are held, Kentucky and Mississippi will have similar statewide elections on November 6. Additionally, New Jersey and Virginia will be electing large portions of their state legislatures. Going into these elections, I’d like us to have an opportunity to focus on these somewhat overlooked 2007 elections. Before going forward, I will admit that I am not an expert on any of these states and these threads are mostly here for feedback from the forum users. Today, I’ll focus on Mississippi.

Mississippi will be voting for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, State Auditor, State Treasurer, Agriculture and Commerce Commissioner, and Insurance Commissioner. Additionally the state legislature is up. Here’s a brief on each office.

Governor
Haley Barbour, former tobacco lobbyist, is seeking re-election as the Republican nominee. Barbour beat out incumbent Democrat, Ronnie Musgrove in 2003. Since then he has been received positively by the state, mostly due to what was seen as strong reaction to Hurricane Katrina (no doubt reinforced by Louisiana’s poor reaction). The Democrats have nominated John Arthur Eaves Jr. who, from what I have heard, has run hard on religion and performed well in debates while Barbour has appeared listless. Expect Barbour to win, but his margin of victory to be closer than expected.

Lieutenant Governor
Due to term limits, Republican Amy Tuck will not be seeking re-election. The Republicans have nominated 3 term State Auditor Phil Bryant. The Democrat is State Rep. Jaime Franks. Both candidates look to be highly engaged in this race. I have no idea who is favored, but I’d guess Bryant because he has been elected statewide before.

Secretary of State
Incumbent Democrat Eric Clark is retiring. Democrats have nominated Former State Senator Rob Smith. The Republicans have put forward Redstate favorite Delbert Hosemann who will keep those “dirty illegals” from voting. Delbert’s campaign looks much more engaged compared to Smith whose campaign looks nonexistent. Expect the Republicans to gain this one.

Attorney General
Incumbent Democrat Jim Hood is seeking re-election. The Republican candidate is Attorney Al Hopkins. Both sides appear engaged and Hopkins looks like he’s bringing abortion into the election. Both sides also look like they are getting REAL dirty as well. This one may be close, but I’d guess a Hood re-election is in store.

State Auditor
Phi Bryant is the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor, so it is an open seat race. Cousin to Congressman Chip, State Sen. Stacey Pickering is the Republican nominee. The Democrats have nominated Forrest County Adminstrator Mike Sumrall. This one looks like it has gotten away from us and will stay with the Republicans.

Treasurer
Republican Tate Reeves is seeking re-election and the Democrats have frequent candidate Shawn O’Hara. This one is staying theirs.

Agriculture and Commerce
Republican Lester Spell is seeking re-election. Former Democratic State Chair Rickey Cole is our guy. This is the only race where the Democrat seems more engaged than the Republican. If we upset any race this is it, but the Republican is still favored. A candidate from the Constitution Party may make the difference for us.

Insurance Commissioner
DFA endorsed and ex-state fiscal officer Gary Anderson defeated incumbent Democrat George Dale in the primary, so this can be considered an open seat race. The Republicans have nominated Mike Chaney. Anderson looks a bit more engaged, but, and I REALLY hate to say this, expect race may be a factor and we may lose it on that alone, issues be damned! I’d say this leans Republican, but we still have chance.

State Senate
A pair of Democrats defected earlier this year and gave control of the legislature to the Republicans. The current Composition is 27 Republicans-25 Democrats. I expect the Republicans may have some coattails from many of their top of the ballot races and gain a tad to expand their majorities.

State House
The DLCC website states the Mississippi State House has a 74-48 Democratic majority. Expect our majroity to shrink due to coattails, but Democrats to stay in command.

Summary
Republicans will keep the statewide seats they already have, however the race for Governor and Lieutenant Governor may be closer than we could have previously hoped for. The Agriculture Commissioner may flip Democratic, however it is unlikely Democrats can also expect to lose the Secretary of State. Our bright side appears that, while it will be close, we should hold onto the Attorney General, barely, and the State House. While Insurance Commissioner will probably flip Republican, we do have fighting chance of holding it.

Please, comment, and tell me your thoughts on Mississippi. I’ll have more of these up before Nov 6 on New Jersey, Virginia, and Kentucky.

On a complete side note, I am looking forward to Friday when I can get Mac OS X.5 Leopard so I can get bloody spell check build into Safari, so until then, please forgive the spelling typos where they are.

The following was written by Matthew Krell for Cotton Mouth.  He writes at Street Prophets and Daily Kos under uID mkrell.

…

Haley Barbour has led, by most accounts, a fairly charmed life.  He’s gone from being a Republican in a single-party Democratic state, to being the second Republican governor of Mississippi since Reconstruction.  Along the way, Gov. Barbour has been chairman of the Republican National Committee and the lead partner in the most influential lobbying firm on the Republican side of the aisle.

But Barbour may have reached his apogee, and although I know it’s hardly Christian of me, I think his star may be about to fall – and it’s about time.

When Barbour was elected governor, he placed his assets in a blind trust.  For those of you who don’t know, a blind trust is a mechanism whereby a property owner can receive benefits from their property without having to abandon offices of public trust that might have a role to play in determining the value of their property.  In a blind trust, the trustee manages the beneficiary’s property, but the beneficiary can receive no information regarding the disposition of the property – they just receive the payouts to which the trust structure entitles them.

In Gov. Barbour’s case, he was entitled to $25,000 a month in payouts.  His initial trust included shares in his old lobbying firm worth over three-quarters of a million dollars.  Here’s what’s interesting, to me, at least:

What we have here is that some times Barbour has made statements that he did hold an equity position in the parent company of Barbour, Griffith and Rogers — now very much in the news for its representation of the Iraq political ambitions of former Iraq Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi — and at other times he said he had severed all ties to the firm but was getting a “retirement payment.”
  – Steve Clemons, The Atlantic

As Clemons points out in that same piece, Barbour’s old firm doesn’t provide retirement benefits.  So, either the Governor is receiving a benefit that no one else at BGR is getting (which might be legal, but certainly isn’t ethical), or the firm is making payments into his blind trust in return for some continuing service.

What sort of continuing service could the sitting Governor of Mississippi be providing to a lobbying firm?  Nothing good for the people of Mississippi, I’m sure.  But let’s not assume the worst.  Let’s assume that Gov. Barbour is simply receiving a pension benefit from BGR that no other member or employee of the firm gets.  Because you know, that’s totally fair.

But that’s not the end of the Governor’s ethical lapses.  Much has been made of the Governor’s nephews’ lobbying business in the Great State.  Particularly impressive has been the efficacy with which their client’s causes have made progress through the Legislature.  But more important than that, the Governor has seen fit to appoint family members time and time again to various governmental commissions that are overseeing the recosntruction of the state in the wake of Katrina.

Bloomberg News points out that the Barbour family members that have been overseeing Katrina reconstruction have been paid for lobbying services during their time on the panels.  Interestingly enough, the clients that paid the Governor’s nephews during this period managed to benefit from the work that they did on recovery, to the tune of almost three million dollars.  Isn’t that a strange coincidence?

I’m not so naive as to think that government doesn’t work via the personal connections between people.  As the governor’s lawyer puts it, Barbour “naturally is not going to be disinclined to help [his nephews] whenever he can.”  And I accept that.  The problem is the interconnectedness of the remunerative relationships.  The way that the Governor’s family gets appointed to help make recommendations for storm recovery – and the recommendations just magically happen to throw a lot of business to a lobbying client of the family.  There’s just something about the process that stinks.

And that stink is starting to stick to Haley Barbour.  The Clarion-Ledger is pissed about the monumental waste that Katrina recovery has involved.  Bloomberg’s Tim Burger is knocking the ball out of the park with his reporting on this, and the legalistic arguments of Barbour’s representatives ring hollow in a state that has seen two years of bull on the question of recovery.

If John Arthur Eaves is smart – and he must be, or he wouldn’t have been so successful, all evidence on the campaign trail to the contrary – he will hammer Barbour’s unwillingness to talk.  He will ask, what is Barbour hiding?  If there’s nothing to hide, why won’t Barbour let us see?

If Eaves can make this issue have legs, he may be able to make a race of it.

Cross-posted at Cotton Mouth

With the surprise retirement announcement of Republican Rep. Chip Pickering on Thursday, the bulk of the attention has been focused on potential Republican candidates for the seat (see here).  Given that Pickering’s district has a strong Republican lean (R+14.1), such speculation is certainly understandably.  But a Democratic bench does indeed exist in Mississippi’s third, and with the obvious Republican heavyweight, Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck (herself a former Democrat), declining the opportunity to run according to the Commercial Dispatch, the field could get a lot more interesting on both sides of the partisan divide.

One such Democratic bench member with ties to the district is none other than former state Attorney General Mike Moore, and currently practices law in Jackson, a city partially located within the 3rd Congressional District.  Moore, who left a stellar record during his time as AG, was considered a likely Democratic candidate for Senate in the event of a Trent Lott or Thad Cochran retirement.  But with Cochran likely to run again, Haley Barbour looking mostly strong in his gubernatorial re-election bid this year, and the AG post safe in the hands of Democrat Jim Hood, Moore could not satisfy his statewide ambitions for at least another four or five years (either for a gubernatorial bid in 2011 or a run at Lott’s Senate seat in 2012, if open).  And while Moore was very popular during his four terms as AG from 1988-2004, the last time that his name was on the ballot was in 1999–a considerably long political hiatus.

If Moore wanted to keep his name recognition alive and well, running for–and more importantly, winning–a rare open Mississippi House seat would certainly help him keep his name in the public consciousness.  So will he do it?  The early answer, delivered via a surrogate, is no:

Former state Attorney General Mike Moore – a Democrat who ran for the U.S. House in 1989 – said he’s not interested in seeking Pickering’s seat, according to Jonathan Compretta, an associate in Moore’s law firm who’s campaign manager for current Attorney General Jim Hood.

Under normal circumstances, that would be that.  But are Mississippi Democrats willing to take that as their final answer?  According to Will Bardwell, the locals are at least putting in the effort to persuade Moore to look seriously at the race:

Word around the campfire is that Democrats are attempting to schedule a meeting with former Attorney General Mike Moore to persuade him to run for Chip Pickering’s congressional seat.

The move would make all the sense in the world for Moore, whose ultimate goal is the U.S. Senate but whose name recognition and political stock have been collecting dust since he left state government in January 2004. A seat in Congress would be an ideal launching pad and would keep Moore’s name recognition fresh while he waits for a Senate seat to open in either 2012 or 2014.

The only drawback is that, as of now, Moore carries no real political baggage, which would inevitably change in a hurry after a few years in the House of Representatives. Still, manageable political baggage may be less of a hurdle in 2012 than nearly a decade of political decay.

So on the one hand, Moore could keep his profile alive by risking controversial votes on issues such as the war in Iraq, abortion, and immigration (assuming he wins), or he could risk facing a bit of a “whodat” factor in future statewide races by not having his name on any ballot in twelve or thirteen years.

If Moore is firm in his “no”, the Democratic bench is not short on other potential recruits, such as former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, and former Reps. Wayne Dowdy and Ronnie Shows (the latter of whom lost badly to Pickering in 2002 when their districts were merged after the 2000 census).  Shows, for his part, seems like a strong possibility to give this district another crack:

Shows said he’s antsy to get back in Congress and might seek the seat again.

“Certainly I’m interested in it, but I got to think about it,” he said today.

“I’m looking at it very strongly. … I miss being there, but I’ve been pretty successful since leaving,” he said.

In any event, with open seats an especially rare occurrence in Mississippi, state Democrats have pledged to field a serious contender for the open seat.  While there’s no doubt it would be an uphill climb, would-be challengers could look to Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor, who won his Mississippi House seat with 65% of the vote in a special election in 1989 less than a year after Michael Dukakis collected an ugly 30% of the district’s vote, for inspiration.

UPDATE: Cotton Mouth offers more possible Democratic and Republican candidates.

Ronnie Musgrove, who served as Governor and Lt. Governor of Mississippi, has been reported in the past week to be considering a return to politics by running for Lt. Governor. Musgrove would have been the strongest Democratic nominee for the office which is being vacated by GOP Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck.

Key Democrats tell the Magnolia Report that former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is saying he’s running for lieutenant governor. 2/21
http://magnoliarepor…

In an radio interview with Paul Gallo of SuperTalk Mississippi
on Friday he said his inclination was “not to run”.

BREAKING – Musgrove’s ‘inclination not to run’
http://www.mississip…

In neighboring former Alabama Gov. Jim Folsom, Jr. returned to office by being elected Lt. Governor.

Democrats hoping for an open U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi will apparently have to wait a few more election cycles. Incumbent GOP Sen. Thad Cochran started a major fundraising drive with a fundraiser in Jackson Tuesday night and is expected to raise some $650,000.00 this week.

While not yet committing to a 2008 race Cochran indicated he was leaning heavily toward a race despite reports in recent months that he would like to retire. If Cochran had retired the Mississippi Democratic Party had a number of strong candidates who would have a good chance to return the seat to Democratic hands. They included former Gov. Ray Mabus, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, Cong. Gene Taylor, former Cong. Ronnie Shows, former Sec. of Agriculture and Cong. Mike Espy, and others.

http://bluesunbelt.c…