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Looks like state senator Alan Nunnelee is planning on making the run. Given Nunnelee’s lackluster performance in the state senate, I don’t see how he could possibly say he’s going to effect change in the Washington spends money. It’ll make for a competitive race given that he and Rep. Childers are from the same neck of the woods.
After a couple-week hiatus, I’m back to Episode 11 of my redistricting series! On tap for tonight’s episode: a magnolia founds the next world empire! Or, rather, I’ve paired two unlikely diary neighbors, New York and Mississippi.
There were a number of people who earlier asked me why I hadn’t yet covered New York, one of the obvious choices for an early redistricting diary. The reason is that back in March I drew a map for NY that assumed Jim Tedisco would win NY-20 and be primed for elimination in 2012. Just tonight I redrew New York to, on the contrary, make the 20th more Democratic to help Murphy (though the news wasn’t all good, and I’ll get to that momentarily).
Previous efforts:
Diary 1: Massachusetts and Texas
Diary 2: Michigan and Nevada
Diary 3: Iowa and Ohio
Diary 4: Georgia and New Jersey
Diary 5: Florida and Louisiana
Diary 6: Pennsylvania and Utah
Diary 7: Illinois and South Carolina
Diary 8: Indiana, Missouri, and Oregon
Diary 9: Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky
Diary 10: Colorado and Minnesota
The chasm lies below…
Mississippi
With only four districts and a Democratic legislature offset by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour, the goal here was simple: help Travis Childers and make his 1st District considerably more Democratic without noticeably diluting the 2nd (a VRA-protected black-majority district). Much like ArkDem’s Mississippi map from some time ago, mine keeps the 2nd solidly black-majority while moving the needle in the 1st several points in the Democrats’ favor. Unfortunately, there seems to be literally no way to prevent Gene Taylor’s 4th, in 2008 McCain’s strongest district in the state, from eventually flipping to the GOP. The Gulf Coast counties are just too absurdly Republican (little-known fact: Trent Lott represented the 4th not long before Taylor, who won a 1989 special election when Lott’s GOP successor died).
District 1 – Travis Childers (D-Booneville) — the overwhelming Republican nature of Mississippi’s northernmost counties prompted me to make a truly audacious move (hat tip to ArkDem on this) in removing DeSoto County, a major source of GOP votes, from this district and putting it instead with the mostly black, Delta-based 2nd. This district carefully grabs more marginally Republican counties that were previously with the 3rd and some black counties that were in the 2nd without, I think, overreaching. McCain would likely have still won here, but not with 62% as before (since my methods are so low-tech, I can only guesstimate, and I’ll say with only minimal knowledge that this variation of the 1st is probably about 55-57% McCain, enough to keep Childers solid and keep the district well in play for a future Democrat).
District 2 – Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton) — other than its two-county northern reach, this district is heavily Democratic and hopefully at least 60% black, with an Obama percentage somewhere around 63-65%.
District 3 – Gregg Harper (R-Pearl) — once I had set aside most available Democratic turf for Thompson or Childers, and drawn a logical Southern Mississippi seat for Taylor, this constitutes what was left over (hint: a lot of white Republicans, who easily overwhelm the significant minority of black Democrats).
District 4 – Gene Taylor (D-Bay St. Louis) — I hoped against hope that there was a way to bring the McCain share under 60%, even under 65%, but that’s impossible as far as I can tell. Consider this district a loan that can be deferred only as long as Taylor chooses to stay.
New York
Well, then…I had to eliminate one seat (it’s possible the Empire State will lose two, as in the last reapportionment, but all models currently project that its 28th slot will barely be saved). Murphy winning NY-20, much as it thrilled me, put a real monkey wrench in my plans and forced me to start over with the upstate districts, especially since there are a handful of upstate Democrats with marginal districts needing protection (damn all those votes being wasted in the city!). I started my do-over looking for a way to eliminate Pete King without jeopardizing shaky Democratic strength on Long Island…turns out, not a good idea. Population loss is mostly confined to upstate, so any NYC or Long Island seat elimination will cause havoc with the necessarily illogical lines. Simply put, the dropped seat will have to be upstate. If New York ends up dropping two, maybe King can be drawn out.
I tried drawing upstate a few different ways, each messier and more gerrymandered than the last, until deciding to try something a little controversial: put Mike Arcuri at risk. Of course, I started this process wanting to shore up Arcuri, just like Massa, Murphy, Maffei, and Hall, but eventually discovered that his district would be the most difficult to shore up based on pure geography. It’s not hard to move the 20th north, or put a little Rochester into Massa’s district, but with so many narrowly GOP-leaning and swing counties in the middle of the state, helping Arcuri would have been a lot tougher.
So I paired Arcuri with veteran Republican John McHugh in a relatively even-handed district. That may bode ill for Arcuri (whose first reelection in 2008 was shockingly close) against the longtime incumbent from up north, but with Obama likely to again command some coattails in 2012 New York, maybe he has a good shot. On the flip side, McHugh hasn’t faced a tough race in forever and may bow out rather than test his probably rusty survival skills. So my proposed 23rd is a tough call, and Democrats in the legislature might prefer to seek a certain GOP loss, but they’ll be forced to resort to some mighty contortions of mapmaking to derive that result.
Other than that risky move, my other choices were, I think, logically conceived and beneficial to the Democrats. Murphy and Massa are the big winners in this map, as are Hall and Maffei to a lesser degree. It was hard not to spread upstate Dem votes too thin, especially since upstate counties tend to be within 55% one way or the other (unlike the overwhelming Democratic margins in the city), but I think I may have pulled it off, at least as well as I could while equipped with such minimal redistricting tools.
You can’t easily see the urban districts, which is good because I wasn’t able to be very precise with them (what with only a calculator, Excel, and Paint to guide me). In fact, my changes to the NYC and Long Island districts were so minimal that there’s little point to addressing each district individually. Suffice to say that, other than maintaining VRA racial protections, the only “downstate” district I thought carefully about was the 13th, which in my map comprises all of Staten Island plus a small portion of Brooklyn. Beginning at the bottom of the Hudson Valley, then:
District 17 – Eliot Engel (D-Bronx) — stretches from the Bronx to Orange County. I diluted Democratic strength a little bit to help John Hall, but the 17th stays a safe seat.
District 18 – Nita Lowey (D-Harrison) — entirely within Westchester County, safely Democratic.
District 19 – John Hall (D-Dover Plains) — 91% of Dutchess, 28% of Orange, all of Putnam, and 23% of Westchester = Dem-leaning and more clearly Dem-trending suburban/exurban district.
District 20 – Scott Murphy (D-Glens Falls) — altered not just to become more Democratic (and it obviously is, in this iteration) but specifically to strengthen Murphy, by grabbing more of the rural north and dropping most of Saratoga. Perhaps Murphy will do well in Saratoga in 2010, without a regional pol as his opponent, but since Obama’s numbers were stronger up north than in Saratoga anyway, this seemed like a sensible choice.
District 21 – Paul Tonko (D-Albany) — a bit less Democratic, this district still includes all of Albany County but also all of Schenectady and 79% of Saratoga. Tonko would represent three major upstate towns under my map, which may present occasional conflicts of interest, but certainly appeases the “geographical compactness” fetishists.
District 22 – Maurice Hinchey (D-Hurley) — sheds a few Democrats to help Arcuri and Massa, but stays Dem-leaning and reasonably compact. The toughest pill to swallow for Hinchey would be ceding liberal Tompkins County (Ithaca) to Arcuri/McHugh while picking up some moderate Republican turf in the Hudson Valley. This is what I mean about having to balance the interests of different Democrats upstate. Hinchey, and a future Democrat, should still be just fine here.
District 23 – John McHugh (R-Pierrepont Manor) vs. Mike Arcuri (D-Utica) — combines some of McHugh’s rural northern counties (the more Democratic of which were given to Murphy) with Arcuri’s Oneida County base and some overwhelmingly Arcuri-friendly territory down in Ithaca. Knowing McHugh’s moderate reputation, popularity with military interests, and seniority advantage, I went out of my way to give Arcuri a fighting chance. For whatever it’s worth, this district would have voted for Obama, as did both of the current districts — Arcuri’s 24th and McHugh’s 23rd.
District 24 – Dan Maffei (D-Syracuse) — what was involved with this district was more tinkering than careful strategy, as any reasonable take on Maffei’s district will result in something Onondaga County-heavy and Dem-leaning.
District 25 – Chris Lee (R-Clarence) — a true “leftovers” district after I had done everything within reason to put Massa’s 28th in the Obama column while keeping Slaughter and Higgins rock-solid. Other than Chautauqua County and some Buffalo-area neighborhoods, this district should be plenty Republican. And yes, I know some of you would have liked me to eliminate Lee, but there are enough GOP votes in this part of New York that Massa (or Higgins) would have been doomed for defeat under that plan.
District 26 – Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) — literally stretches from Buffalo to Niagara Falls, for a Rust Belt-ish industrial and Democratic-leaning district.
District 27 – Louise Slaughter (D-Fairport) — much like its current form, this covers most of the “lakeshore curve” in Western New York, stretching east from Niagara Falls to Rochester (about 2/3 of Monroe County is here, with the other third given to Massa, who definitely could use the electoral aid, while Rules Committee Chairwoman Slaughter is safe as can be).
District 28 – Eric Massa (D-Corning) — if this district were a tourism ad, its slogan would be “where West and Central meet”. The Rochester portion of the district likely puts Massa in a much more advantageous position and results in a slightly Obama-supporting district (the current 29th voted for McCain). Monroe County is easily the largest population source, with Ontario, Steuben, Chemung, and Cayuga (88% of which is here) rounding out the top five. Though it’s far from a Democratic stronghold, this district may be my most effective upstate seat in terms of the overall change in its partisan composition.
Overall, this map does what we’d all like in somewhat solidifying a three-seat ceiling for the Republicans (a very bad year might result in defeats for Massa and either Hall or Murphy, but the average year would preserve at least 25 Democratic seats out of 28), one of which is quite vulnerable. More sophisticated technology would doubtlessly allow me to create more precise boundaries and more accurately estimate the partisan dynamics of each district, but given the limited resources I have, I think I did pretty okay.
Thoughts on either state? What else do you want to see from this redistricting series?
Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn’t try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.
Among these nine initial seats – eight of which are held by Republicans – the rating of four has changed this month. New Mexico has moved from lean Democrat to likely Democrat, Colorado from toss-up to lean Democrat, and Oregon from lean Republican to toss-up. Only Minnesota has moved in the opposite direction, from toss-up to Lean Republican.
9 competitive seats is already a large number – comparable to the field of play two years ago. But with 2008 shaping up to be as good a Democratic year as 2006, the DSCC is aware that it has to do the most of this opportunity and is eager to put even more seats in play. As a result, we have seen a lot of actions since my previous Senate rankings in the second and third-tier of GOP-held seats: In North Carolina, strong polling by Kay Hagan forced Elizabeth Dole to air a round of advertisements, but the DSCC has reserved up to $6 million of air time in the fall. This race is the most likely candidate to join the “initial nine.”
In Maine, Democrats have still not been able to tie Susan Collins to her party label, but the $5 million the DSCC is budgeting for the fall campaign is a huge amount of money for this inexpensive state. In Kentucky, Bruce Lunsford’s primary victory certainly exasperated progressives, but the first slate of polls suggests all hope is not lost for Democrats. As for Texas, Kansas and even Idaho, Democrats would need titanic shifts that for now remain unimaginable, but the mere fact that these races are being discussed is horrendous news for the GOP.
Will Democrats be able to go beyond eight serious targets and seriously contest one of these long-shot races? How close will they come to a sweep of their initial eight targets and will they save Louisiana? These are the obvious questions to ask out of these new rankings and I will be closely monitoring any signs of further shifts in the electoral map. More precise questions that will come to determine the make-up of the next Senate include: Will John Sununu be able to take advantage of McCain’s good name in New Hampshire to appeal to independents? How much will Obama boost black turnout in Louisiana and in Mississippi? Will Al Franken be able to put his personal controversies behind him? And is the Maine electorate already over Bush?
The full new rankings are available here, with this accompanying map:
Outlook: Democratic pick-up a net 5-9 Senate seats.
Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 7 seats, for a 58-42 majority.
Likely Takeover (2 Republican seats, 0 Democratic seat)
1. Virginia (Open seat; Previous Ranking: 1)
It is hard to believe that Jim Gilmore’s situation has worsened over the past two months given how much of an underdog the former Republican Governor was to start with. It is never a good sign when a presumptive nominee wins his party’s nod with 50.3% of the vote, but that is what happened to Gilmore at his party’s nominating convention. As if this proof of an unenergized conservative base was not enough, the state GOP’s moderate wing is also backing away from Gilmore: incumbent Senator John Warner, the Republican whom Gilmore is seeking to replace, is refusing to endorse his own party’s nominee! The only hope for Republicans to retain this seat is for Barack Obama to tap Mark Warner as his running-mate. Warner might very well have been the favorite in the veepstakes… if he were not favored to win this Senate race.
2. New Mexico (Open; Last ranking: 2 and lean take-over)
Three giants of New Mexico politics entered this race after Senator Domenici announced his retirement back in October. The political career of one of them has already been cut short: Rep. Heather Wilson lost a heated and narrow GOP primary to Rep. Steve Pearce, leaving him in a difficult match-up against Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. Pearce is much more conservative than Wilson, making it more difficult for him to appeal to independents in this blue-leaning year, but Wilson had her own ethical issues.
This is an open seat in a swing-state in a Democratic year — that by itself is a recipe for success Democrats, just as it was in Minnesota in 2006. In a very similar situation, Amy Klochubar opened a large lead against Rep. Kennedy in what was supposed to be a competitive open seat. Now, Udall is leading Pearce by 2:1 in recent polls and has 6 times more cash on hand than his Republican rival. That means Pearce is dependent on the help of the NRSC, help that is unlikely to come. In mid-June, Sen. Ensign, the NRSC chairman, implied that his committee was giving up on the Virginia and New Mexico races. That just about seals the deal in this race.
Lean Takeover (2 R, 0 D)
3. New Hampshire (Incumbent: John Sununu; Last ranking: 3)
The parallels between this race and Pennsylvania’s 2006 Senate race continue. Despite predictions that the race is bound to tighten and that John Sununu is too good a politician to go down without a fight, polls are showing no sign of a competitive race – with the latest numbers finding Shaheen leading by 22%. But Republicans are hoping that the more accurate parallel for the Sununu-Shaheen race will be North Carolina’s 2004 race, when Rep. Burr had stockpiled his cash to launch an ad blitzkrieg starting in September and had turned a consistent deficit into a narrow victory on Election Day. Now, it is Sununu who is saving up for a big push in the fall; as of the end of the second quarter, he has $5 million in the bank versus $2 million for Jeanne Shaheen. Will a late wave of advertisements be enough?
4. Colorado (Open; Last Ranking: 4 and toss-up)
For the first time since the November rankings, Colorado is not rated a “toss-up.” As had been expected from the day the match-up between Mark Udall and Bob Schaffer was set up, the Democrat has pull ahead and is now consistently ahead by 9-10% in recent polls. A combination of factors explains why Udall finally jumped up to his first lead. First, this year’s Democratic bent gives Democrats an edge in any open seat race that should have been tight. Second, Bob Schaffer had a bad few months, in particular over stories broken by the Denver Post about his association with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Third, Udall fundraising advantage has allowed his campaign to spend more aggressively on ads. Udall outspent Shaffer 3:1 in the second quarter, and the DSCC jumped in with an attack ad of its own.
Meanwhile, we are starting to get a better idea of the campaign arguments Udall and Schaffer will use in the months ahead, and the first debate that opposed the two men in mid-July set some battle lines: Energy is already a hot topic in the campaign, with the two candidates exchanging barbs on the subject and Udall has devoted the entirety of one of his first ads to energy. Schaffer is determined to paint Udall as weak and unable to make much of a decision, while Udall is casting himself as a bipartisan with a commitment to consensus. It does look like Mark Udall is running as more of a moderate than his cousin Tom in New Mexico; beyond his insistence on bipartisanship, Mark voted for the FISA bill and Tom voted against it.
Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)
5. Alaska (Incumbent: Ted Stevens; Last Ranking: 5)
Ted Stevens is suffering from the corruption scandal that has ensnared him and the state’s Republican Party and it is even affecting his fundraising abilities, as Mark Begich outraised the entrenched incumbent in the second quarter. Contrary to Rep. Young in the at-large House race, Stevens does not face a credible primary challenge, a relief for Democrats as the state’s red leaning would kick in to help a Republican not plagued by ethical controversies.
Begich has been at worst tied with Stevens for months now. He went up on TV in early July, with one ad introducing himself and the other devoted to energy issues (with a joint pledge to develop alternative energies and to fight to “open ANWR”). Perhaps boosted by his increased media exposure and his advertisement efforts, Begich has jumped to a 9% lead in the latest poll, though we will naturally need confirmation of that number before drawing any conclusion.
The Democrat’s efforts will be boosted by those of the Obama campaign, which has unexpectedly decided to make Alaska into a battleground state at the presidential level. Alaska polls have shown a tight presidential race, a sharp departure from past cycles in which Bush crushed his opponents by more than 20%. That means that contrary to Knowles in the 2004 Senate race, Begich will not have to swim counter-current and that he might benefit from Obama’s organizational efforts.
6. Mississippi (Incumbent: Roger Wicker; Last Ranking: 8 )
Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker were once roommates, but they are quickly becoming bitter rivals. Polls confirm that the race is a pure toss-up. The Republican incumbent has a clear advantage on the financial front ($3 million of cash on hand versus less than $800K for Musgrove at the end of the second quarter), but the DSCC has already rushed in to help Musgrove respond to Wicker’s ads, demonstrating how seriously it took this contest. The DSCC’s move triggered further controversy: Republicans are charging that the ads break campaign finance rules. Democrats answered by filing their own complaint about Wicker’s fundraising.
It is true that Musgrove would have had a better chance had this special election been held in March, as it should have. Now, Wicker has more time to introduce himself to voters and blunt Musgrove’s high name recognition; the GOP believes November’s turnout will be more uniform than it was in MS-01 in May and that a more conservative electorate will give Wicker victory. But Democrats remain confident: First, there will be no party labels next to the candidates’ names. Second, this is one down-the-ballot race in which the Obama candidacy could have a very clear effect: If there is a significant boost in black turnout, it could prove all Musgrove needs to pick-up this seat. The African-American vote is more than ever the key metric of this senatorial race, and one polls are unlikely to capture accurately.
7. Louisiana (Incumbent: Mary Landrieu; Last Ranking: 6)
Not much has changed in this race since the end of May. For one, Louisiana remains the one credible pick-up opportunity for Republicans, and as such will remain a high priority for the NRSC. Second, the two candidates remain on par financially, with Kennedy keeping up with Landrieu’s fundraising for the second quarter in a row, though the incumbent retains a 2:1 advantage in the cash on hand department. As for polls, they show Landrieu ahead but the race has tightened a bit, with the Democrat ahead mid-single digits and under 50% in a number of recent polls. This is one state in which the presidential race is likely to help the Republican, as Louisiana is not a state Obama will do much of a dent. He might increase black turnout a bit, but the African-American vote’s decrease since Katrina will be an advantage to Kennedy. One strong argument Democrats hold is statements made by Kennedy in 2004 when he was running as a Democrat for Senate.
8. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith; Last Ranking: 9 and lean retention)
Democrats have targeted Gordon Smith since the very first days of the cycle. But a disappointing recruitment process followed by primary difficulties for Jeff Merkley made Democrats anxious that they could be wasting an opportunity here. Since the May 20th primary, however, Merkley has grown stronger and is consistently polling within a few points of Smith. In fact, Merkley led in a poll for the first time just a few days ago. News that Merkley had outraised Smith in the second quarter hardened his position as a strong challenger.
Smith has been aware of the target he has on his back and has been preparing since the start of the cycle. Despite being distanced in second quarter fundraising, he still has a 8:1 in cash on hand and so much of Merkley’s money was spent in the primary that his campaign is now in financial difficulty. Furthermore, Smith has been rapidly moving to the center, aware that he is at danger of becoming this cycle’s Lincoln Chaffee: a Republican incumbent in a Democratic state who drowns in the blue tsunami, heightened by the probability that Obama scores a large victory in Oregon.
Smith’s solution has been to throw his party label overboard and run as a consensus candidate ready to embrace both side. And he is going very far in that direction. Not only did he run an ad featuring a Democratic state representative and a state Senator endorsing him, but he followed that up with a spot embracing… Barack Obama, in a desperate-seeming effort to show his willingness to work across the aisle. This strategy does not come without risk: Smith, after all, is supporting John McCain and his positioning could confuse voters. And it will make Smith that much more vulnerable to Obama campaigning on Merkley’s side (the Illinois Senator wasted no time issuing a statement reiterating his support for Merkley).
Lean Retention (2 R, 0 D)
9. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman; Last Ranking: 7 and toss-up)
This is the first time in six Senate rankings that Minnesota is not rated as a toss-up. After a wild two months in which Al Franken was undermined by a succession of controversies, polls have clearly shifted away from the former comedian. Except for Rasmussen, which continues to show a toss-up race, other pollsters (including SUSA and Quinnipiac) find Coleman leading by double-digits.
Facing a shrewd incumbent with the reputation of a solid campaigner, Franken had no room for error. Yet, his campaign started tanking with revelations of Franken’s tax problems and with the controversy over his 2000 allegedly-pornographic essay in Playboy; this led a Democratic congresswoman state that she was not sure she could support Franken’s campaign and led Planned Parenthood to blast Franken’s “misogynist remarks.” Next came another firestorm over a rape joke Franken helped write on SNL in 1995. Now, the Coleman campaign is airing a personal attack ad blasting Franken for not paying taxes and writing “juicy porn.”
Franken and Coleman’s strategies are clear. The Democrat wants to make this a referendum about the incumbent and about the Republican Party. Franken denounces the “Bush-Coleman recession” and emphasizes Coleman’s proximity to his party’s leadership. The Republican wants to make this a referendum about what he believes is Franken’s polarizing persona. Whoever manages to frame the debate best is likely to win the election – and both candidates have millions of dollars in the bank to define their opponent.
As if all of this agitation was not sufficient, there was the Jesse Ventura question mark. The former Governor only announced he would not run for Senate on July 14th, and his decision was a relief for Franken’s campaign who had far more to lose from a Ventura candidacy. Now, Franken faces trouble within the DFL. Despite some intra-party rumblings back in May, Franken easily won the DFL’s endorsement. Yet, a well-connected attorney recently announced she would run against Franken in the Democratic primary. She is unlikely to threaten Franken’s nomination, but her late run could prevent the former comedian from turning his attention to Coleman.
10. North Carolina (Incumbent: Elizabeth Dole; Last Ranking: 10)
Minnesota concludes the list of the eight obvious Democratic targets. The DSCC has been looking for more seats to contest, and has made a clear choice that North Carolina has the most potential. Chuck Schumer has been including the state in the list of top targets for many weeks now and the DSCC has reserved up air time for up to $6 million in advertising starting mid-September. Think about that number for a minute: Democrats are committing to invest $6 million in their 9th target in a Republican-leaning state in a presidential year. What better sign of confidence could the DSCC send?
Yet, Republicans have reason to feel confident about this race as well. As of my last rankings, a
series of polls had just found Kay Hagan enjoying a stunning post-primary bounce to almost tie Elizabeth Dole. But the Republican incumbent then unleashed a big advertisement campaign. Combined with the fading of Hagan’s primary victory bounce, Dole has recovered a low-double digit lead in all institutes, including SUSA, Rasmussen, PPP and Civitas.
But it is too late for Dole to make herself look strong. She still hovers around the 50% threshold of vulnerability, and the quick drop in her numbers in May shows that her support is weak. And Hagan will benefit from the Obama campaign’s decision to contest North Carolina, particularly since the McCain campaign is doing little to counter. It will help Hagan overcome North Carolina red leaning and it will allow her to rely on Obama’s turnout efforts. North Carolina might look less promising for Democrats than it did late May, but it retains unexpected potential.
Rankings continue here.
Rasmussen (6/24, likely voters, 5/27 in parens):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (47)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Musgrove still pulls even with Wicker despite having a poorer favorability rating (47-43 to Wicker’s 56-32), probably due to Musgrove being better known as a former Governor. Still, Wicker has begun putting his healthy cash-on-hand lead to good use by airing ads in Southern Mississippi, where he is largely unknown.
Here’s a bright spot from the poll which might give us hope for Mississippi’s future: Voters between ages 18-29 favor Musgrove by a whopping 68-27 margin. Wow. Conversely, voters 65 years and older prefer Wicker by a 60-34 margin. Let’s hope that Barack Obama’s candidacy can energize young Mississippians.
Bonus finding: Speaking of Obama, McCain still only has a 50-44 lead in Mississippi.
UPDATE: (by Crisitunity) The same poll also covered incumbent R Thad Cochran vs. ex-state rep. Erik Fleming in MS-Sen-A (the regularly scheduled Senate election). No surprises: Cochran is up in that one, 59-32.
Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.
So let’s tally ’em up. Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.
However, in the “too good to be true?” file, Rasmussen’s same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.
In the state’s other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.
This past Monday, when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove traveled to Gulfport, Miss., to announce his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat recently vacated by Senator Trent Lott, he stood on the property across from the harbor . . . and totally missed the boat.
Not once did his speech utter the phrase Katrina recovery. Not once did his speech mention insurance reform. Not once did his speech tell Mississippi’s Katrina survivors that he intends to work shoulder-to-shoulder with Congressman Gene Taylor, our much beloved local hero, to pass Taylor’s ground-breaking insurance reform legislation, which is now awaiting action in the US Senate. Not . . . one. . . word. Nope. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
Talk about a slap in the face. Come to our home area and not deliberately tell us in your SPEECH that our primary problems with insurance and other Katrina-related recovery issues are your priorities?! What an insult to every man, woman, and child whose lives Katrina impacted.
That Musgrove did this while standing on a slab that had been the foundation for the 1st Presbyterian Church of Gulfport is more than merely stepping a toe over the line. Using the ruins of our devastation—a place of worship, no less—as the backdrop, a prop for his declaration that he is the self-appointed savior of our state’s vacant senator position clearly demonstrates the galling depth and breadth of this man's hubris.
For those of us living inside the Katrina-ravaged region, Musgrove's silence in his campaign speech is a bit akin to heresy. The most pressing issues for the state’s three coastal counties are recovery from Katrina’s destruction and thwarting the financial stranglehold that the insurance industry has on South Mississippi’s families and business owners. Apparently, the obvious has evaded this obtuse former one-term governor. Guess he is writing off seeking votes from South Mississippi voters, voters who reside in the state's second most populous area.
Well, like Arte Johnson's German soldier character on Rowan and Martin's Laugh-In used to say, “Verrrrry Interesting. But Schtupit!”
On Monday, January 7th, a friend told me he had just seen on TV an undecided New Hampshire resident pose a question on skyrocketing property insurance rates to Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. While homeowners way up the eastern coastline share our insurance concerns, here deep inside the Katrina-ravaged region, Musgrove's formal remarks remained silent about the severely negative impact that outrageous insurance practices and rates are having on families, businesses, community organizations and non-profits just like the very church on whose slab the candidate used as a campaign prop.
Speaking of the church site as a prop, here's a question the Musgrove campaign ought to answer. Did Musgrove get permission to use the property or did he just show up like a squatter? If the church still owns the property and gave permission to use its slab for a political event, that would be a violation of its 501c3 status and would put in jeopardy its nonprofit status—as well it should, were that the case. However, I cannot imagine that the church would have done such a thing. So, just how did the Musgrove campaign come to use that property as its prop?
Anyway, displaying tremendous hubris with which he intends to run his campaign, Musgrove's prepared remarks clearly ignored completely what will drive South Mississippians to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate. If he ignores the issue that cuts across party, religion, economics, race, and gender as he is attempting to court us to vote for him at the ballot box, we can imagine how he would treat us were he to become our next elected senator. Heck, every woman knows that regardless of how a man treats us during courtship, his behavior won't get any better with marriage. 😉 When it comes to Musgrove's attempt to woo us here on the coast, we should heed this wisdom of women's experience.
Slabs Symbolize Big Insurance's Big Betrayal
The area’s plentiful slabs remind us continuously of Big Insurance’s Big Betrayal. That Musgrove used the church’s slab as a prop to pretend that he would champion our plight insults every South Mississippi home- and business owner.
We are looking for candidates to champion reasonable, affordable insurance, to reign in the industry’s devastating and unnecessary blows to our financial security and economy. We are looking for candidates who will provide the federal leadership we need to rebuild homes in which to live and rebuild businesses in which to work as well as provides the good and services that create an abundant quality of life.
We are looking for the candidate in this race who will be the U.S. Senate counterpart to Congressman Gene Taylor: an unflinching, fierce, courageous, effective public servant who gets the job done for his constituents. We are looking for the candidate who will demand insurance reform . . . because we are demanding insurance reform.
Coastians Continue to Demand Insurance Reform
In Sunday's editorial in the Sun Herald titled “Barbour should reconvene commission to assess our recovery,” the paper wrote
In other words, the geography where the insurance industry has betrayed coastal families and business owners through wrongly denying wind damage claims. The same geography where he insurance industry has pulled back on the types of damage it will cover then skyrocketed its policies—where it will provide coverage at all. Big Insurance has priced coverage out of an easily affordable range for most home and business owners here in South Mississippi.
Two comments to the Herald’s editorial yesterday poignantly articulated this demand for insurance reform.
Blind as a Bat without Radar
Why did the former governor not make our recovery and insurance reform a part of his speech which he delivered in four different parts of the state? Goodness knows that interim Senator Roger Wicker most certainly included them in his speech at the coast airport when he quickly flew in and flew out of here on New Year's Eve. If a Republican's campaign kick off speech included the phrases “Congressman Gene Taylor” “multiple peril insurance” and “Katrina recovery”, why didn't candidate Ronnie Musgrove?
Oh boy, yeah, that is the priority that Mississippians in general and Katrina-fatigued families specifically want senate candidates to exhibit. Apparently, Musgrove is flying through hurricane country blind as a bat without radar.
© 2008 Ana Maria Rosato. All rights reserved. Originally published on January 8, 2008, at A.M. in the Morning!
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Ana Maria authors A.M. in the Morning!, dispatches from Katrina's ground zero . . . a distinctly progressive political perspective.
In March of 2007, this native daughter drove from her home in Silicon Valley, Calif., to surprise her mother with a visit to their family home in Bay St. Louis–ground zero for Katrina's devastation. The surprise was on Ana Maria.
She launched her blog in May 2007 to express her dismay and provide detailed, poignant, on-the-ground accounts of what the people of the Gulf Coast are still experiencing nearly two years after Katrina's devastation.
Not for the faint of heart, A.M. in the Morning! provides first-hand accounts of post-Katrina life written in a scathing style redolent of the region's famous cuisine–hot, strong and spicy. Nobody escapes Ana Maria's wrath whether they are the callous insurance industry, the bumbling leadership of FEMA, do-nothing politicians, or incompetent government contractors.
A progressive political blog with a decidedly activist bent, A.M. in the Morning! includes her Center for Political Hell Raising, which provides activist tools of ready-made email letters, addresses, phone scripts and phone numbers to whomever is lucky enough to be caught in her cross hairs.
From the Gulf Coast of Miss. to the heartland of Nashville, Tennessee, from the nation’s capitol to Silicon Valley, California, Ana Maria has been politically active as a professional and a volunteer on the local, state, and national levels.
Ana Maria is committed to using her blog and podcast to reinvigorate the discussion and generate a renewed national sense of purpose to efficiently and effectively rebuild the area.
Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is making it official — he will run for the Senate against his old roommate Roger Wicker:
Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove confirmed to The Associated Press on Friday that he will run for the U.S. Senate.
Musgrove plans to hold a series of news conferences Monday in Tupelo, Jackson, Hattiesburg and Gulfport.
“I’ll be announcing, yes,” Musgrove told the AP in a telephone interview from his law office in Madison County.
With Mike Moore off the table, Musgrove is probably the next best bet, and the early polls that we’ve all seen confirm that he still has a significant level of support in the state. Will it hold up in a federal election?
This will be an interesting race to watch — whenever it’s held.
Local activists in Mississippi are hoping to make Mike Moore's decision whether or not to run for the US Senate a little easier by launching a draft effort. In the interest of disclosure, I helped out with the technical aspect of launching the site, but it's really the work of the local grassroots on the ground in Mississippi.
John Leek, editor of Mississippi political blog Cotton Mouth, is spearheading the effort and had this to say: "Mike Moore has been a tireless advocate for justice, both in his public capacities as District Attorney and Attorney General, and in his private practice where he represents those denied legitimate insurance claims as a result of Hurricane Katrina. It is this sense of compassion and integrity that our nation so desperately needs today, and Mike Moore will carry those values to the US Senate."
On the web: We Want Mike Moore
With Mississippi’s Democratic Secretary of State Eric Clark concurring with Haley Barbour’s bizarre reading of the state’s electoral laws, the state Democratic Party is gearing up for a fight with Barbour, who wants to delay a special election until November 4th of next year.
Will Mississippi Dems have any fighters to help them out? It looks like they have one in the state’s top law enforcement officer, MS Attorney General Jim Hood:
Gov. Haley Barbour (R) has called the contest for Nov. 4, 2008, the date of the next regularly scheduled general election. But Democrats – in particular Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood – contend that state law requires the special election to be held 100 days after Lott resigns, should the Senator stick with his stated plan to relinquish his seat by Dec. 31.
Hood is not ruling out legal action.
“We will decide what to do if and when it becomes necessary,” Hood said in a statement provided to Roll Call on Tuesday, in response to an inquiry about whether he plans to sue Barbour to change the election date. “We fully expect the governor will follow the law.”
Good. This is one fight I look forward to winning.