Tag: New Hampshire

Cross-posted at Election Inspection and Daily Kos

Overall chart and Virginia here

A couple of things I’d like to make mention of before I go into my analysis of these three senate seats. First of all, for fundraising information, I’ve mostly been getting data from RCP’s Politics Nation and from Senate2008Guru’s website (go to the very bottom of the list).

Secondly, there are some states which I have ranked as being safe that I would like to briefly address. The two biggest disappointments to me this cycle have been Kentucky and Kansas, in both races we could’ve gotten top-tier (or at least second tier candidates who could’ve become top-tier), but unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. Greg Orman had actually gotten more individual contributions in the fourth quarter than Pat Roberts, but he dropped out, and so we are left without a viable contender this time. Kentucky is a state which could’ve been in play, but unfortunately Crit Luallen and Greg Stumbo, the two top prospects of the DSCC, both decided against running and the netroots favorite candidate, Andrew Horne, dropped out after Bruce Lunsford entered the race. A lot of people say that Fischer and Lunsford have plenty of money to spend, but, as Mitt Romney has learned, money only gets you so far, and that’s especially true when the Republican you’re running against is the party’s Senate Leader.

Now then, to the lean seats:

New Mexico

• Status: Open Seat
• Ranking: Leans Democratic

Democrat running: Rep. Tom Udall (CD3)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $1 million
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.7 million

Republican running: Rep. Heather Wilson (CD1)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $516,000
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.1 million

Republican running: Rep. Steve Pearce (CD2)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $425,000
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $820,000

Polling Data 

Survey USA (released 11/19) Udall 54% Pearce 40%; Udall 57% Wilson 41%

Survey USA Primary (released 11/19) Wilson 56% Pearce 37%

Analysis: Since Pete Domenici retired and Tom Udall has entered the Senate race, this long-shot race has become the second-most likely seat for Democrats to pick up from the Republicans, (and considering the pick-up opportunities we have, that’s saying something). Now, a few caveats, had Bill Richardson entered the senate race, I would be calling this race Likely Dem instead of only Leans (don’t misread this, Udall is the second-strongest Democrat in the state, and a formidable candidate) just because of Richardson’s popularity in the state. The real question is who the Republican nominee is going to be for the fall. Steve Pearce represents the southern part of the state (Hobbes, Las Cruces, etc.), and we have a nickname for it, Little Texas. Basically Pearce is your typical wing-nut (the other day he was on UNM’s campus, and let’s just say that in Pearce’s world, the spotted owl is the reason why the economy sucks) Pearce’s nomination would basically move me to put this race into Likely Dem territory. Heather Wilson is a psedo-moderate, who has been able to win in CD1 (basically New Mexico’s largest city, Albuquerque and a slight part of Santa Fe). Everyone here remembers that Heather Wilson barely won re-election in 2006 against Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid. There is a good reason that Heather Wilson has been able to hold onto this seat for a while, it’s because she’s an adept campaigner. Whatever you say about her “moderate” record, she knows how to win.  Now, before anyone gets too nervous, Udall is no Patricia Madrid, he’s a seasoned politician and a strong fundraiser, plus he has a solid base of support, not only in the Democratic stronghold of northern New Mexico (Taos, Santa Fe, etc.), but in Heather Wilson’s base of Albuqurque. Even with Wilson as the Republican nominee, this race is still leans Democratic, but will require us to be VERY cautious about getting too ahead of ourselves (btw: as someone who REALLY wants to hear the words “Senator Tom Udall” please do me a favor and donate a few bucks to Udall’s campaign)

New Hampshire

• Status: Incumbent seeking re-election
• Ranking: Leans Democratic

Democrat running: Jeanne Shaheen (former Governor)

• Money raised Quarter 4: $1.2 million
• Cash on hand as of 2007: $1.1 million

Republican running: Sen. John Sununu

• Money raised Quarter 4: $920,000
• Cash on Hand as of 2007: $3.4 million

Polling data

• Rasmussen (released 2/13) Shaheen 49% Sununu 41%
• Granite State (released 2/11) Shaheen 54% Sununu 37%

Analysis: This is the Democrat’s third best pick-up opportunity, and while I think that Jeanne Shaheen will ultimately win this seat from Sununu there are a couple of things which worry me. As many probably already know, Shaheen’s husband has foot-in-mouth disease (the “drug dealer” comment he gave about Obama). Now, I don’t think that this alone is enough to do any significant damage, but things like this really hurt (on a side note: when you have a spouse running for office, the last thing you want to do is to piss off potential voters who are supporting another candidate). Also, Shaheen’s performance against Sununu in 2002 makes me a bit nervous this time around, but again I think that the environment is different in many ways, so a replay of the same election will almost certainly turn out differently. Sununu shouldn’t be underestimated, though, just looking at cash on hand numbers, it’s clear that he’ll be working over-time to protect himself, but Shaheen outraised Sununu by 200K last quarter, and, thanks to a lot of former Massachusetts residents, this race is looking good for us.

Well, next time I’ll be going into Louisiana’s senate seat (Mary Landrieu), and I’ll also give a bit more justification of why I think the safe seats are safe (specifically Kentucky)

Politico has it right here

So, now that we're likely to knock out Sununu, is it time to concentrate on the last Republican member of congress in the state (Gregg)?

Former Republican Rep. Charlie Bass’ service in Congress can be called many things (“disingenuous” and “Bush-enabling” being my top two), but you've gotta give the Bassmaster some credit where credit is due for some straight-up honesty:

Charlie Bass, who lost to Hodes last year after serving five terms, isn't sounding like a candidate for a rematch.

“Life after Congress is not bad,” said Bass, now executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a Washington-based organization focused on getting moderate Republicans elected.

“I haven't ruled anything out, but, frankly, I think that if the election were held today, the outcome might be worse for me than it was last November. I'm not making any decisions at this point.” (emphasis added)

Couldn’t have said it any better myself, Charles.

(H/T: Dean Barker)

If Bob Novak is correct, then John Sununu must be looking for a new pair of pants. The Prince of Darkness is reporting that Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is very likely to enter the Senate race.

New Hampshire: Former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R). There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there.

I hope she announces soon so the other canddiates can decide what to do. Until Shaheen confirms this herself, I wil continue to support Steve Marchand. Either way, New Hampshire is looking blue in 2008.

[Cross-posted on DailyKos and MyDD.]

Greetings to the national Netroots.  I’m Steve Marchand and I’m running for the U.S. Senate in New Hampshire to challenge John Sununu in 2008.

I’m writing today because I want to extend the dialogue I’ve begun with our New Hampshire Netroots to the national level.  As a longtime reader of national blogs like DailyKos, MyDD and Swing State Project, I value the open forum you’ve created, a forum that enables some of the most productive progressive dialogue in America today.

I’m running for U.S. Senate because we need a change in our nation’s direction. In my recent New Hampshire Democratic State Convention speech, I spoke about my experience and my vision for America.  You can watch the video of that speech on my website.

More below the fold

In my speech, I said what I strongly believe: we need to end the Iraq War right now.  We need to end it because it was fought under false pretenses and has been conducted with reckless leadership by the Bush Administration.

I applaud those members of Congress (including New Hampshire’s own Rep. Paul Hodes and Rep. Carol Shea-Porter) that stood up to the administration and refused to issue them a blank check for this war with a NO vote on the recent Iraq funding bill.  We need to see real withdrawal progress–right now–or we need to stop funding failed policies.

There are other battles, however, that we also must not lose sight of.  We need to guarantee affordable, quality healthcare coverage for every American, rich or poor.  As someone who has lived through the consequences of the national healthcare crisis, I understand what lack of coverage can mean.  Let me explain a bit more.

I grew up on the working-class West Side of Manchester, New Hampshire.  My father, a carpenter, and my mother, a millworker, came to this country from Quebec to build a better life for their children.  We didn’t have much, but more than anyone, they helped me understand the value and the power of hard work.

In the early 1990’s, however, New Hampshire’s economy was hit hard and our housing market crashed.  My father was left with a home that he couldn’t sell.  My family went without income for an entire year.  In this time of crisis, my parents did what millions of Americans have been forced to do: they dropped their expensive health insurance so that they could afford to feed their family.

And then, in her late thirties, my mother suffered a heart attack.

We were lucky; she recovered and is still well today.  But my Mom and Dad were forced to declare bankruptcy just to keep their home. These are the consequences of not having healthcare coverage when you need it most.

So when John Sununu says that we need to “stop complaining about healthcare,” well, I dare him to tell that to my parents and the millions of Americans without healthcare coverage living paycheck to paycheck.

We also need a Senator who knows that global warming is a problem and that we need real solutions to it–right now.  As Mayor of Portsmouth, New Hampshire, I’ve fought to make sure that our city is taking important, meaningful steps to become more green.  We aren’t waiting for the federal government to take the lead.  We’ve built the only Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design (LEED)–certified public building in New Hampshire, our new public library.  We’ve converted our city fleet to biodiesel.  And we’ve begun energy audits of all public buildings so we can make real changes to our energy use. 

The best part is, these changes in Portsmouth are saving taxpayers money.  Indeed, I’ve gained a statewide reputation for earning the trust of taxpayers by delivering value for their tax dollars.  We’ve shown that you can be fiscally responsible and socially progressive at the same time.  Those are values that I will take with me to the U.S. Senate.

And finally, as the recent Supreme Court decision shows, we cannot take Roe v. Wade for granted.  As the only 100% pro-choice candidate in this race, Democrat or Republican, I will always defend a woman’s right to make her own choices about her own body.

I look forward to being actively engaged with you here and in our New Hampshire blogs.  I appreciate your consideration, welcome your feedback, and encourage you to learn more about my campaign at my website, www.stevemarchand.com.  Together, we can bring real change to the U.S. Senate.

Virtually all national polls show that pretty much any leading Democrat would wipe the floor with Mitt Romney. So this here poll from the Granite State sounds like Very Good News to me.

More below the flip….

According to a SurveyUSA poll of 551 likely Republican Primary voters, Mitt Romney gathered 32%, followed by Rudy Guiliani at 23% and John McCain with 22%. Fred Thompson finished fourth with 11%.

Romney leads by 9%, a result sure to please Mormons and ecumenical Christian conservatives, and horrify the more traditional anti-Mormon Christian fundamentalists that make up the Republican base. As expected, Rudy and McCain are neck and neck in the somewhat (small-L) libertarian state that went for McCain in 2000, but they are far behind the former Massachusetts governor. Obviously, it appears that downstate Republicans in the Boston media market are sweet on him.

Looking at the crosstabs, we start with what we already know – his lot is cast with the conservative wing of his party – and find a few interesting tidbits: he gets impressive support from union households, people who don’t own guns, and Generation Y.

In a poll of 589 likely Democratic Primary voters, Clinton gets 40%, Obama follows with 24%, while John Edwards trails with 22%.

Not much to report there. The last time Rasmussen polled Clinton vs. Romney nationally, Hillary was up by 9%. Obama led by 15%, and Edwards led by 26%. Heck, even Richardson leads Romney by 8%.

Now, I don’t think Romney has a shot outside of New England and the Mormon Belt (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, maybe Nevada). But if Romney wins New Hampshire, that hopefully will make the GOP primary at least a 3 man race for that much longer. You have to wonder what things will be like in South Carolina – do they go for the “liberal”, the man they spurned in 2000, or the Mormon? Or do they go outside the top 3 and vote for Huckabee, Thompson, or Brownback? Anyone else thinking it depends which one hires the slimiest folks to pull tricks out of the Lee Atwater playbook?

I guess I should welcome myself back to being an SSP diarist after a hiatus of several months. I’ll keep watching those polls, ladies and gents.

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Is it just me, or are ads produced by Democratic-allied groups getting stronger and stronger?  The Hill takes a look at three ads by Americans United for Change targeting Republican Senators Collins (ME), McConnell (KY) and Sununu (NH).  And while the ads against McConnell and Collins are both pretty good, the Sununu edit takes the prize:

Damn.

I’m feeling pretty good about this race.  Given New Hampshire’s rapidly shifting partisan composition, Sununu’s steadfast support for Bush’s disastrous and unnecessary war in Iraq, and support from his new best friends at the extreme-right Club For Growth, I’m feeling pretty pumped about the chances of any challenger who isn’t a Lieberdem with a crappy electoral track record and a name that rhymes with Boba Fett.

Race Tracker: NH-Sen

A new ARG poll released today shows former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen with a 10 point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. John Sununu.

Jeanne Shaheen  44%
John Sununu  34%

http://bluesunbelt.c…

This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election.  Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.

Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England

2004

2006

More after the flip.

Perhaps more striking than Democrats taking 6 House seats from Republican incubments in New England is just how close (6645 votes) Democrats came to a shutout taking the CT-04 from moderate Republican Christ Shays.  In Massachusetts Republicans didn’t even bother to run candidate in 6 of 10 House races, and elsewhere relatively few races were close.  Below I have created a shaded map to indicate vote margin, both Red and Blue are divided into 3 shades.  The lightest shade of red or blue indicates that the races was decided by less than 5%, the medium shade is less than 10%, and the darkest shade indicates the victory was over 10%.

Looking through races contested in both 2004 and 2006 (and excluding VT-AL due it being held by Independent Bernie Sanders in 2004) a clearer picture of the wave that swept Democrats into seats previously held by Republicans can be seen.

The single largest vote gain (in % terms) by a Democrat between 2004 and 2006 was in the CT-05 where the Democratic vote share surged 34% from 38.2% in 2004 to 56.2% in 2006.  In the CT-02 the Democratic candidate still hold a narrow lead, however the race has not yet been called.  In the CT-04, Chris Shays had a near (career) death experience, winning his race by a mere 3.2%.  As the lone remaining Republican in New England he should be a target for Democratic defection, with active efforts to woo him.  And if he won’t make the change, then he needs to end up like Lincoln Chaffee.

In New Hampshire Democratic candidate eked out narrow victories.  In the NH-01, the margin of victory was 3.1%  a 29.9% gain over the 36.6% showing of the Democratic candidate in 2004.  In the NH-02, Paul Hodes’s margin of victory was 6.1%, a 26.2% improvement over that 2004 showing at 38.2% for the Democratic candidate.

Looking forward to 2008, the CT-04, the sole remaining Republican seat in New England should be a pickup target if Shays doesn’t have the sense to do what’s right.  Democratic victories in the CT-05, NH-01, NH-02, and VT-AL will have to be defended because they all are likely Republican pickup targets with 2006 victory margins under 10 points.  Once the status of the CT-02 has been resolved we’ll know whether this is a seat that we will need to defend or a pickup opportunity.

For all the talk of a Solid South with Republicans dominating, nothing comes close to the level of victory that Democrats have achieved in New England.  New England Republicans at the federal level are on the brink of extinction, if Democratic candidates who took Republican seats concentrate on constituent service to build up an incumbency advantage we will be able to speak of a total realignment in New England.

That’s it for New England.  My next diary will focus on New York.   The ETA for that should be sometime next week.

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