Tag: NC-Sen

Back in 2004, North Carolina preferred a potted plant (err..Richard Burr) over an uncharismatic, aloof candidate (Erskine Bowles).  Although trailing in the polls during the 2004 Summer, Burr caught on fire and defeated Bowles 52-47.

How did Burr win?  Well, it wasn’t for his charisma, and it wasn’t because of name recognition.  It wasn’t for his progressive ideas or his brain power.  Burr won because (a) the GOP brand was hot in 2004, (b) the Democrat was a crummy candidate, and (c) Bush ignited the Republican base.

Going forward today, let me list Richard Burr’s accomplishments during his tenure in the US Senate.  Well, let me think…oh yeah, he told his wife during the financial meltdown to withdraw as much as humanly possible out of the ATM that night (and every other day afterward).

I’m being sarcastic..I’m sure he has some sort of record that he can promote, but he’s not too good about communicating them to the folks in NC.

Going to the 2010 election, what plan does Burr have to win re-election?  He doesn’t have Dubya running, and the GOP brand is not as hot in NC as it was in 2004.  His only hope is that the Democrats nominate an uncharismatic candidate and that the Obama administration has some severe stumbling blocks.

I don’t see Burr winning re-election unless the GOP name catches on fire again to the 2004 level.  I also don’t see the Democrats nominating a boring candidate like Erskine Bowles again.

My preferred candidate is Cal Cunningham.  He’s young, attractive, and a progressive.  He’s a Captain in the U.S Army reserves.  He has charisma.  He could be the next John Edwards (the 1998 version) to sweep NC.

Okay, everyone is thinking of “name recognition”.  In NC, name recognition of new candidates don’t mean much.  John Edwards wasn’t a true “name candidate” in 1998.  He was a high-profile attorney in Raliegh, but most of the state had no idea what John Edwards was about.  Kay Hagan was not well-known, either.

What did Hagan and Edwards have in common?  They were both young candidates that represented the ideas and beliefs better than the incumbent.  In addition, both were much younger than the incumbent Senator.  Cunningham also is considerably younger than Burr, and he is also a better fit for the NC electorate than the very conservative Richard Burr.

Don’t dismiss Cunningham because of his lack of name recognition.  Name recognition should be Burr’s problem (a third of the electorate has no idea that he is their Senator).

 

• MA-Sen: AG Martha Coakley wasted no time in announcing her candidacy for the special election for the Massachusetts Senate seat; unlike the myriad members of the House delegation, she’s not waiting to see if a Kennedy gets in. Meanwhile, people are definitely talking about a candidacy by Curt Schilling, retired from the Boston Red Sox. If Schilling runs, he’s ineligible to do so as a Republican, though; he’s registered as an independent, and he doesn’t have enough time under Massachusetts to change his registration to be able to run as an R. (Schilling himself acknowledges he may not be the best candidate, although he clearly is enjoying the spotlight.)

• NC-Sen: Former state Sen. and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be acting more like a candidate, and he got a big boost from a recent speech to a Democratic group in Charlotte which has gone viral, as they kids say these days. He lit Burr up with zinger after zinger, effectively summing up the anonymous Burr this way: “In 15 years on Capitol Hill you can’t name one thing that Richard Burr has done to make your life better, and I can’t either.”

• NV-Sen: Feeling confident after seeing several polls giving her an edge over Harry Reid, Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden is resigning her post, presumably with an eye toward a Senate run. Since there are already announced candidates (former SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian), she’s resigning as of Sep. 30 to avoid a conflict of interest.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall is out with a poll of the Pennsylvania races, although the undecideds are bizarrely large. Case in point, Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 37-11 in the Dem primary (with 46% don’t know and 6% other). Specter bests Pat Toomey in the general, 37-29, while Toomey beats Sestak, 26-22. (As an amusing aside, Sestak and Toomey had a Specter-free debate at Muhlenberg College last night and then adjourned to a local pub together for a round of beers and further private trash-talking of Specter.) F&M also polled the GOP gubernatorial primary, where Tom Corbett leads Jim Gerlach 15-6 (with 73% don’t know!). Outgoing Gov. Ed Rendell has quickly plunged from most popular figure in the state to least popular, with a favorable of 32/53.

• MN-Gov: Former Dem state House leader Matt Entenza recently hired Friend of SSP Dana Houle to manage his campaign for governor. Congrats to Dana, and best wishes to Entenza, who made a wise choice. (D)

• NV-Gov: You know your political career is over when other members of your own party are using your name as a cudgel against their opposition. Minor GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Montandon issued a press release attacking John Ensign over his alleged recruiting of recently-retired federal judge Brian Sandoval into the gubernatorial primary. (Although presumably the intent was to besmirch his opponent Sandoval, by linking him to Ensign.)

• VA-Gov: One more poll to mention in Virginia, not as favorable as the PPP poll from Tuesday. Rasmussen’s latest look at the race gives Bob McDonnell a 51-42 lead over Creigh Deeds with leaners (49-39 without), not much changed from the early August sample of 47-38. The entire one-day sample was on Sep. 1, after news of McDonnell’s anti-fornicator manifesto had broken. Speaking of said master’s thesis, Deeds is already on the air with radio spots (wisely airing only in northern Virginia) attacking McDonnell over the thesis. In another sign of Dems’ renewed confidence in this race, the DNC is pouring a truckload of cash into the race: $5 million.

• CA-50: Dave Roberts, a city councilor and former mayor in Solana Beach, confirmed today that he’ll be a candidate in the 50th against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray. Roberts, an openly gay veteran, has sounded more conservative notes than the other Dems in the primary, 2006 candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem; he recently changed his registration from Independent to Democratic. (UPDATE: The Roberts camp informs us that he is not a veteran.)

• FL-16: The DCCC sounds happy with its recruit to go against freshman Tom Rooney, 36-year-old St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft. He also has a compelling backstory, as seen in this recent interview.

• NH-01: Here’s a poll of the hotly contested race in the 1st, courtesy of Populus Research (the same guys who polled NH-Sen a few weeks ago and found no undecideds) on behalf of the conservative site Now Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter leads GOP mayor of Manchester Frank Guinta, 46.3%-43.4% (I’m not sure what’s up with the extra significant digits when the MoE is still 4%, but who am I to nitpick?). Guinta previously released an NRCC internal poll in April that had him down 43-34.

• NY-23: Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava seems to have one Achilles heel in the NY-23 open seat special election: her brother Thomas (in the fine tradition of Billy Carter, Roger Clinton, and Neil Bush). Turns out she owns $1 million in preferred stock (and a 3% voting stake) in her brother’s troubled company, Seaway Valley Capital Corporation, a holding company whose subsidiaries owe $192,000 in back taxes. She maintains she’s a mere “passive investor,” although she is COO of an affiliated company, Seaway Capital Partners.

• KY-State Sen.: It looks like Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is going to continue his stealth plan to dismantle the GOP’s majority in the Kentucky state Senate, one seat at a time. Still riding high off of Democrat Robin Webb’s recent win of a GOP-held state Senate seat, Republican Senate President David Williams is pre-emptively whining in the press about Beshear’s efforts to see that GOP Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly gets nominated to a vacant circuit judgeship. This move has been rumored for some time, and back in July, the names of two Democrats were floated for a potential special election in Kelly’s seat in central Kentucky’s Bourbon territory: former state Rep. Jodie Haydon of Bardstown or Nicky Rapier, the son of the late House leader Kenny Rapier. (J)

• MA-Sen: Now we know the dates for the special election to fill the seat left behind by Ted Kennedy. Deval Patrick set the dates as Dec. 8 for the primary (which will be the real focus in this dark blue state) and Jan. 19 for the general. Meanwhile, while many possible contenders are waiting to see what Joe Kennedy II does, it looks like AG Martha Coakley (who has been sizing up a Senate run for years) isn’t wasting any time. One of her representatives picked up filing papers today.

• FL-Sen: It shouldn’t be a surprise that Marco Rubio didn’t like Charlie Crist’s pick of George LeMieux as interim Senator, since approximately nobody liked it. Rubio takes to NRO to say he would have picked conservative Orlando-area state Sen. Dan Webster instead (who could still surface as a candidate in FL-08).

• IL-Sen: Cheryle Jackson, president of Chicago’s Urban League, hasn’t gotten much attention yet in the Democratic primary. However, she just got several noteworthy endorsements, from Rep. Bobby Rush and the Cook County Democratic Women Organization.

• NC-Sen: Maybe Rep. Bob Etheridge is moving toward a Senate run after all? He just launched a blistering salvo toward Richard Burr over health care reform in a DNC conference call today, attacking Burr’s “Patients Choice Act” counterproposal. Etheridge wouldn’t say anything about his intentions for 2010, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Somehow the New York Post got the ball rolling on the idea of an Eliot Spitzer comeback, either with a run for Comptroller or even Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate seat. Spitzer quickly acted today to dispel the idea.

• SC-Sen: Democrats are back to the drawing board on a challenger for Jim DeMint. State Sen. Bradley Hutto had sounded very interested, but announced over the weekend that he won’t run. Lawyer and former Fritz Holling aide Ashley Cooper is about the only other credible name on tap.

• NJ-Gov: The police department of Lambertville, NJ – the town where Chris Christie got seemingly preferential treatment after he was pulled over for speeding back in 2005 – says that their director is “no longer returning media calls.” Sketchy, huh? Christie’s varying tales about what exactly happened at that stop aren’t helping him, either. He’s now claiming that his identity as US Attorney only came up during the incident because the tow-truck driver recognized him. Shah, right. (D)

• SC-Gov: Seems like Mark Sanford’s up to his 10th or 11th life already. After rumors that the legislature was ready to do a special session to impeach him, now the state GOP is saying it’s not ready to issue an ultimatum letter threatning impeachment (although they throw the door open to any lawmakers wanting to draft the legislation individually).

• MO-04: It’s not unusual for a challenger to have nice things he said about an incumbent thrown back in his face. But this is kind of an extreme case: GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, chasing 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton in the 4th, has not only called Skelton “an outstanding advocate for the people of west-central Missouri and the state as a whole” but said it while sponsoring legislation to name a bridge after Skelton.

• NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball continues to impress, well, at least Pete Sessions; he just got named to the “On the Radar” part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. He’s running against sophomore Rep. John Hall in this R+3 district.

• NY-23: Looks like Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is gaining some traction, seeing as Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has started attacking him in the press. This could bode well for Democrat Bill Owens – back in 2004, in a state Senate race in the same part of New York, Dem David Valesky snuck through with a narrow win after a Conservative candidate helped split the right-wing vote in the district. (D)

• WI-05: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Wisconsin’s Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, who has been diagnosed with treatable, early stage prostate cancer.

Democratic Rep. Bob Etheridge has been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate since Attorney General Roy Cooper passed on the race, but he never appeared to show much interest in challenging Richard Burr. It looks like he’s giving the race a closer look after being pressed by the DSCC in recent days. From the News & Observer:

Democratic U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge said today that he is giving some thought to running against Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year.

Etheridge, a Lillington Democrat, said he has been courted by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee as a potential candidate, reports Rob Christensen.

“I’m evaluating it,” Etheridge said during a meeting Wednesday with reporters and editors at The News & Observer.

Etheridge said he met recently with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and had discussions with family members and a few key supporters. Etheridge said he hoped to make a decision by September.

Etheridge would be a pretty decent candidate for this race, though I wouldn’t relish defending his open R+2 seat — especially if the wind is blowing against us next year. Obama did actually carry Etheridge’s district by a 52-47 margin according to SSP’s Prez-by-CD analysis, but Bush won the district by eight points in 2004 and seven points when Al Gore was on the ballot.

Etheridge has a bit of money in the kitty — just shy of $900K — and has the potential to raise a bunch more from his perch on Ways and Means. This seems to be a top concern for the DSCC, as the organization hasn’t been rushing to embrace the potential candidacy of NC SoS Elaine Marshall, perhaps in part due to her fundraising difficulties during her last Senate primary campaign.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

A very special morning edition of the Daily Digest!

• IA-Sen: The Des Moines Register’s Marc Hansen teases that “a well-known mystery candidate” with “name recognition and money” is “about 75 percent ready to join the race” against deather douchebag GOPer Chuck Grassley. The Politico’s Charles Mahtesian speculates that the mystery candidate could be none other than Dem Rep. Bruce Braley. Color me skeptical.

• IL-10: NRCC recruitment wiz kid Kevin McCarthy parachuted himself into the Chicagoland area on Saturday in order to survey the recruitment progress in race to defend GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s open seat. He met with a small batch of prospects, including stock market analyst Dick Green, attorney Bill Cadigan (a former staffer for ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who held the 10th District for two decades prior to Kirk), and businessman Bob Dold. Interestingly, that list didn’t include any of the district’s deep bench of Republican state legislators. I’m not sure if we should read that as a tea leaf that state Rep. Beth Coulson may not be serious about running, but it appears that the GOP is preparing for the prospect of defending this seat with a political newcomer.

• IN-03: Talk about taking one for the team. Former Fort Wayne city councilman Tom Hayhurst, an M.D. who gave GOP Rep. Mark Souder the closest shave of his political life in 2006, has filed papers for a rematch in 2010. Hayhurst lost to Souder by a 54-46 margin that year — a pretty impressive showing given the district’s horrid R+14 bent. But after Souder pasted well-funded attorney Mike Montagano in 2008 by 15 points, it’s hard to see how the good doctor has a shot in hell here. Godspeed, sir.

• FL-08: Here’s some good news for frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson. Larry Cretul, the Republican Speaker of the Florida House, has decided against challenging the former beardo next year. The GOP still has a number of options here, including state Rep. Stephen Precourt and Orlando Mayor Rich Crotty.

Precourt, for his part, told the St. Petersburg Times that he may be interested in a bid, but sounds supportive of state Sen. Dan Webster, should he choose to run. More from Precourt:

“I am a big fan of Senator Dan Webster, but am keeping my powder dry for now. It seems best to stand back and let Congressman Grayson self destruct for the time being, as he is doing quite a good job of it.”

Precourt may have been referring to Grayson’s legislative priorities, but he could have just as easily been alluding to the congressman’s, uh, relaxed style of speech. During a Netroots Nation panel in Pittsburgh on Friday, Grayson decided to yuk it up by saying his 2008 opponent, GOP Rep. Ric Keller, “did all his hiring at Hooters”. He went on to relate an anecdote about how one of his “more resourceful” supporters posed as a volunteer at his opponent’s campaign headquarters for several days, and reported back that “they spent all their time flying paper clips at each other and watching porn on their computers.”

• MN-Gov: It’s no surprise, but Minnesota House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a Democrat, formally threw her hat into the extremely crowded gubernatorial race on Thursday.

• MO-04: It looks like longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, who’s been manning the fort for us in this R+14 district since Baby Jesus was riding dinosaurs to school, is going to have an honest-to-God race on his hands in 2010. GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, whose district overlaps some of the 4th’s northern counties, filed his statement of candidacy with the FEC last week. Stouffer will face a primary from fundie-flavored ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

• NC-Sen: With NC SoS Elaine Marshall officially still on the fence, the DSCC isn’t sitting idly by to wait for her decision. Former Lt. Gov. Dennis Wicker, who lost the 2000 Democratic gubernatorial primary to Mike Easley, says that he’s had conversations with the DSCC and ex-Gov. Jim Hunt about challenging GOP Sen. Richard Burr, and will consider his options. I’d say that Democrats had better lock up either Marshall or Wicker before they realize how ugly 2010 is going to be for Team Blue.

• NV-Sen: Wanna run against Harry Reid (and win)? It really doesn’t appear to be that daunting of a task if you believe the spurt of Republican polls in the past few days. Hot on the heels of a poll showing NV GOP Chair Susan Lowden smacking Reid by an six-point margin, two-time political loser Danny Tarkanian is out with a poll from Chariot, LLC (never heard of ’em) showing him beating Reid by a 50-42 spread.

But before we leave it at that, I just want to briefly touch on this howler from Reno Gazette-Journal reporter Anjeanette Damon:

It was an automated poll, meaning a recorded voice asked respondents to express their preference by pushing a number on their phone. These polls, while inexpensive to run, are not regarded as the most accurate method of obtaining survey results.

Maybe this poll is bunk, but I’m getting pretty tired of journalists who can’t bother to, at the bare minimum, take five minutes to review Nate’s pollster ratings. Or as Tom Jensen recently lamented:

I think there should be a required J School course for all aspiring political journalists on how to truly understand polling, the different methodologies, and the different organizations. I’d put pretty high up on the list that they should learn to look up and analyze the track records of various organizations instead of judging them on hearsay and other subjective criteria.

If only.

• NY-Gov: The Q&Q Polling Factory is out with the n-thousandth poll showing Democratic Gov. David Paterson in comically bad shape. Pitted in a primary against AG Andrew Cuomo, Paterson now loses by a 61-15 margin, down from a 57-20 loss in June. In a general election against Rudy Giuliani, Paterson loses 53-33, while Cuomo leads by 48-39. The numbers scream for themselves.

• PA-05: SSP extends our condolences to the family and friends of Bill Cahir, who was killed while on duty in Afghanistan late last week. Cahir, as you may remember, ran a very respectable campaign for the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania’s 5th District last year, losing a three-way race to Mark McCracken.

• TX-Gov: In a bit of a let-down for Texas activists, Austin-area state Sen. Kirk Watson, seen as a rising star in the TX Democratic Party, announced on Friday that he’ll be seeking re-election to the state senate rather than entering the gubernatorial primary, which is already populated by the likes of Tom Schieffer and Kinky Friedman.

Public Policy Polling (8/4-10, registered voters, 7/10-12 in parens, March in parens for Marshall trend lines):

Cal Cunninghan (D): 28 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (40)

Kenneth Lewis (D): 27 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (42)

Elaine Marshall (D): 31 (35)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (43)

Kevin Foy (D): 27

Richard Burr (R-inc): 43

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Burr has got to be pleased that he’s expanding his lead against all comers, and even against the highly-vaunted candidacy of Generic Democrat, whom Burr now leads by 42-35, a distinct improvement from 40-38 last month. However, Burr still doesn’t have much to brag about, as his approval rating is a marginal 38-32, with a big 30% slice of electorate being “not sure”. Possible newcomer Kevin Foy, the mayor of Chapel Hill, isn’t bringing any noticeable strength to the table in his first appearance in PPP’s polling.

Tom Jensen gives his two cents:

Burr’s situation is pretty simple. If things continue to move in a Republican direction all the way to November 2010 none of the Democratic candidates are going to be strong enough to defeat him. But if the economy turns around and Barack Obama gets the credit for it, resulting in another Democratic year, Burr is probably not strong enough to get reelected. As a relatively anonymous Senator his fate is more than likely going to be determined by which way the wind is blowing. Unless it turns out to be a year where disgusted voters just turn out incumbents of both parties at a much higher rate than usual.

I find it hard to disagree.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen

• NV-Sen: Looks like John Ensign might be starting to get the Jim Bunning treatment from GOP Senate leadership even though it’s three years till he’s up in 2012. Today John Cornyn made a point of refusing to endorse Ensign when asked, instead retreating to boilerplate about giving him the time and space to work out his issues. This follows revelations earlier this week from the Las Vegas Sun detailing how Ensign’s staff, contrary to earlier claims, knew about Ensign’s affair almost one year before it became public.

• NH-Sen: As the GOP establishment annointment of Kelly Ayotte as Senate candidate continues apace, she’s nailed down former Gov. Steve Merrill (who had been touted as a possible candidate himself) as her campaign co-chair.

• NC-Sen: Polls have shown that voters are pretty lukewarm about Richard Burr, and now comments from Burr suggest that he’s pretty lukewarm about being Senator, too. By way of decrying the increased partisanship on the Hill (by which he no doubt means being in the minority), he says “When people ask me if I enjoy what I’m doing, now is the time that I try not to answer the question.”

• OH-Gov: While the fundraising numbers in the Ohio Secretary of State’s race that we talked about yesterday are a cause for concern, Dems are doing well in the two other races that will determine control of the legislative reapportionment board. Not just the Governor’s race, where incumbent Ted Strickland is far outpacing Republican ex-Rep. John Kasich ($2.5 million to $516K), but also Hamilton Co. Commissioner David Pepper, who is challenging incumbent Republican Auditor Mary Taylor, and leading the money chase $317K to $107K. Cumulatively, Democrats in the state House have also more than doubled up on their Republican colleagues.

• PA-07: Now that Joe Sestak has made it official that he’s running for Senate, that puts the wheels in motion in the 7th. Democratic State Rep. Bryan Lentz says he’ll make a formal announcement of his candidacy in the next month. Lentz doesn’t seem like he’ll have the Dem field to himself, though; state Rep. Greg Vitali says he’s also considering the race. On the GOP side, businessman Steven Welch is staffing up for his campaign; unless Pat Meehan does an about-face and drops down from the gubernatorial race, Welch seems likely to have the field to himself.

• Ads: Prepare to watch and hear nothing but ads about health care reform for the next month. The Club for Growth is running ads playing up the “deather” line of argument, targeting Democratic congressional delegations in Nevada, Arkansas, Colorado, and North Dakota. On the Dem side, the DNC is running health care radio ads on behalf of 19 House members (Driehaus, Dahlkemper, Kirkpatrick, Giffords, McNerney, Perlmutter, Kosmas, Grayson, Walz, Heinrich, Titus, Maffei, Massa, Kilroy, Boccieri, Space, Wilson, Nye, and Kagen).

• DE-St. Sen.: A Republican, state Rep. Joe Booth, won a vacant Senate seat in a special election that had been held by the Democrats for decades (of course, it was always the same Democrat: state Senate President Pro Tem Thurman Adams recently passed away, after holding the seat for 37 years). Booth defeated Adams’ daughter, Polly Adams Mervine, who’d never run for office before. The victory in this rural seat in Republican-leaning Sussex County brings the GOP total in the state Senate up to a whopping 6 (Dems hold 15 seats). One silver lining is that Democrats now have a shot at picking up Booth’s House seat, where their margin is narrower and could use some padding (they control the state House for the first time in ages, by a 24-16 margin with the 1 vacancy).

• FL-St. Sen.: Remember Joe Negron, the Republican state Rep. who lost to slimy Tim Mahoney in the 2006 FL-16 election (largely due to the fact that his name was listed as “Mark Foley” on the ballot)? Well, he’s back in the legislature, this time as a Senator, winning a special election yesterday to take over from Republican Ken Pruitt, who’s stepping down from the solidly Republican seat for health reasons.

• KY-Sen: Kentucky’s Fancy Farm picnic is one of those old-timey traditions where all the candidates gather together, make a stump speech, and roast each other a little — but Daniel Mongiardo and Jack Conway already seem to be going a little past roasting each other to going after each other with axes. Mongiardo said Conway stood up for the “silver spoon crowd,” and, in his bid to be the coal candidate in this race, referred to cap and trade as “Jack’s tax.” Conway shot back that Mongiardo (an ear, nose, and throat doctor) “can’t hear the truth, you can’t smell the truth and you sure as hell can’t speak the truth.” Conway also referred to himself as a “tough son of a bitch” and even said “crap” at some point, leaving Mongiardo boo-hooing to the press later on about so many profanities.

• LA-Sen, Gov: Bobby Jindal confirmed that he won’t be running for Senator against David Vitter in the GOP primary, but instead of endorsing Vitter as would be customary at this point, engaged in some rhetorical song and dance instead: “David’s going have to make his case with the voters directly just like any other candidate’s going to have to do that.” Meanwhile, Jindal is facing an investigation from his AG over his blog… or more precisely, “The Ledger,” the blog published by the Dept. of Administration about budgetary news. Still, a Republican state Senator filed a complaint, saying that the blog puts forth a political agenda.

• NC-Sen: The Hill, in a long piece that mostly is about how Elaine Marshall is on track to be the Democratic nominee by default, drops an interesting tidbit at the end: Chapel Hill mayor Kevin Foy said he’s considering the race. (Chapel Hill has a population of less than 50,000, but it has an outsized place in the state’s zeitgeist, as home of UNC.)

• IA-Gov: Former GOP Governor Terry Branstad has been occasional subject of rumors of another gubernatorial run (Branstad already served a record four terms as governor, 1982-1998). Branstad didn’t seem interested, but over the weekend went on the record as at least being somewhat interested: “I’m not ruling it out… And I have real concerns about the direction things are going.” For what it’s worth, a recent GOP internal poll showed Bradstad beating current Governor Chet Culver, while Culver easily dispatched the other GOPers. (H/t desmoinesdem.)

• NM-Gov: GOP State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who’s had an exploratory committee for a while, announced in a letter to supporters that she’s officially launching her gubernatorial bid. She joins Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez in the GOP field.

• NV-Gov: Former GOP Governor (and current RNC member) Bob List dissed current Governor Jim Gibbons in no uncertain terms, saying his re-election chances are “fairly slim” and that Gibbons seems unlikely to run. When asked if he was in fact still campaiging, though, Gibbons had a succinct answer: “Yes.”

• NY-Gov: The NY Times talks to a number of confidantes who make it sound like Andrew Cuomo is very interested in running for Governor, despite his many protestations otherwise. Cuomo’s holding pattern seems to be about waiting for the party’s other power brokers to try and push David Paterson out behind-the-scenes first, before committing to a primary and risking a repeat of the racially divisive 2002 gubernatorial primary where Cuomo lost to Carl McCall.

• FL-08: Seems a little early for dueling internal polls, but that suggests this will be one of 2010’s top House contests. An NRCC poll gave Rep. Alan Grayson a 37-34 edge over Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, but when told that Grayson voted to “raise taxes on small businesses” and “increase the deficit,” Crotty takes a 41-28 lead. (They also message-tested all the things wrong with Crotty — land swaps, toll increases, and the like — but didn’t reveal how much Grayson’s lead increases after being told about that.) Grayson responded with his own poll from April, showing him with a 46-40 lead over Crotty. (H/t Progressive America.)

• FL-24: The Feds wrapped up their investigation of Tom Feeney’s golf trip to Scotland with Jack Abramoff, without filing charges. Feeney, currently practicing law, sidestepped questions of whether he’d mount a comeback for his old seat now.

• GA-09: Yet another Republican threw his hat in for the super-red open seat left in north Georgia by Nathan Deal: state Sen. Lee Hawkins. TheUnknown285 outlines the downballot implications, though: Hawkins could be replaced by GOP state Rep. Carl Rogers, who would leave behind a House seat in Gainesville that would be ripe pickings for Democrats because of rapid Latino growth. (UPDATE: Ooops, no dice. Rogers says today he’ll stay in the House.)

• VA-05: Tom Perriello got into the news in an interesting new way. It turns out that several letters sent to Perriello’s office, purportedly from local liberal groups, opposing cap and trade, were complete fabrications. They were forgeries of the groups’ letterhead, sent by lobbying firm Bonner & Associates, who’ve apparently graduated from mere astroturfing to mail fraud.

• NY-LG: An appellate court ruled that Richard Ravitch, who was appointed by David Paterson in unprecedented (if not unconstitutional) fashion, may start serving as Lt. Governor. However, the court held that he can’t do the one thing that he was put into power to do, which is preside over the state Senate and cast tie-breaking votes.

• MO-Sen: This is actually starting to be a theme with Rep. Roy Blunt: he’s willing to go on the record as hating Medicare. An interview this weekend included the comments:  “We’ve had Medicare since 1965, and Medicare has never done anything to make people more healthy.” I think tens of millions of senior citizens might take exception to that.

• NC-Sen: SoS Elaine Marshall is “pretty seriously leaning toward” getting into the race against Richard Burr, according to strategist Thomas Mills in CQ (although with no mention of whether or not he was speaking on her behalf or just running his mouth). He says she doesn’t have a firm timeline, but will let us know in late summer or early fall.

• TX-Sen/Gov: When the tradmed actually refers to a conversation with a Senator as a “bizarre series of interviews,” you know something’s seriously gone awry. Kay Bailey Hutchison seemed to try to walk back her resignation announcement from yesterday when talking with the Houston Chronicle, but after some more probing, made it sound more like all she wanted was for Rick Perry to get out of the race. Because it’s her turn. Sounds exactly like something someone who’s leading in all the polls would do for her.

In the meantime, Rick Perry said he’d consider moving up the date of the special election to replace KBH, by way of mocking her resignation sort-of-decision, saying that there were too many important things going on in Washington. (Although I’m not sure Texas law would let him do so; it’s pretty clear about the election’s date.) Also, all this dissonance can only help Democratic Houston mayor Bill White in the special election, who got some good news from the FEC yesterday: they issued an advisory opinion saying he can go ahead and additional funds for the special election that technically doesn’t exist yet. (It’s kind of complex; he’s already raised $4 million in his regular 2012 Senate fund, but now he can raise additional money from the same maxed-out donors in the new fund.)

• CA-Gov: It’s not just Democratic governors who are taking a hit in approvals. Arnold Schwarzenegger is running at 28% approval and 59% disapproval in California, according to PPIC. (By contrast, Obama is at 65/27 in the state!)

• PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach is making coy reference to an internal poll that shows him losing the GOP primary to AG Tom Corbett, but with “the profile” to win. The poll says Corbett beats Gerlach (and Pat Meehan) 39-11-7 overall, but that Gerlach leads in the Philly area and that he wins when only biographical info is read. (For those not familiar with the concept, the “biographical info” poll question is the internal polling equivalent of a Hail Mary pass.)

• UT-Gov/Sen/02: Here’s one more name to take off the Open Seat Watch: Jim Matheson verified that he will run for re-election to his House seat, rather than roll the dice on a Senate bid or a run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election (despite having a conceivable shot against as-yet-to-be-promoted Gary Herbert or whatever other weirdo makes it out of the convention process).

• AK-AL: Nice to see that Rep. Don Young isn’t being forgotten, despite the gravitation of all of Alaska’s Democratic talent (ex-state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, State Sen. Hollis French) toward the gubernatorial race. State Rep. Harry Crawford says he’s interested in the race, and has met with the DCCC in DC about it.

• CT-04: Here’s a bullet dodged for Democrats, and a miss for the NRCC, who’ve haven’t had too many targets decline them lately: state Senate minority leader John McKinney, a noted environment-minded moderate and son of former Rep. Stewart McKinney, who represented the area prior to Chris Shays, said he won’t run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes. The GOP may look to fellow state Sen. Dan Debicella instead.

• HI-01: Another bit of good news on the recruiting front: state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa has met in DC with the DCCC about the open seat being left behind by gubernatorial candidate Neil Abercrombie. She’d probably be our best bet at keeping ex-Rep. Ed Case from making a comeback.

• IL-07: The first Democratic candidate has filed for the open seat that Danny Davis is likely to leave behind. Darlena Williams-Burnett is the Cook County chief deputy recorder of deeds; she’s married to Chicago alderman Walter Burnett.

• MI-07: Although ex-Rep. Tim Walberg is committed to running to regain his seat from freshman Democrat Mark Schauer, it looks like he’ll have some competition in the primary and may not even be the establishment’s choice in the GOP primary. Brian Rooney, an attorney at the right-wing Thomas More Law Center in Ann Arbor, brother of Florida Rep. Tom Rooney, and grandson of Pittsburgh Steelers founder Art Rooney, has been talking to the NRCC about the race.

• MN-03: One more recruiting tidbit. This one sounds like it’s far from a sure thing, but state Sen. Terri Bonoff has said she’s “undecided” but taking a MN-03 race “under consideration.” (Bonoff lost the DFL endorsement to Ashwin Madia in MN-03 last year.)

• TX-32: I’m not sure why stories involving blimps are just inherently funny, but Rep. Pete Sessions got into a bit of a blimp-related brouhaha. The ardent foe of all things earmark got busted by Politico, of all places, for very slowly and quietly steering a $1.6 million earmark for blimp construction to an Illinois company with no track record of government contracting, let alone blimp making — but it did have one of Sessions’ former aides lobbying for it.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist got an endorsement today from one of the guys who was considered to be one of the likeliest GOP nominees up until the point when, well, Crist got into the race: Rep. Vern Buchanan. (If you’re keeping score among Florida’s Reps., the Diaz-Balarts and Cornelius McGillicudy IV have endorsed Crist, while Jeff Miller has endorsed Rubio.)

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk has drawn another seemingly-minor challenger in the GOP primary. John Arrington, an African-American former city councilor from Chicago’s southern suburb of Harvey, will run. He also sought the party’s nomination for the same seat in 2004 after GOP primary winner Jack Ryan dropped out, although the state party gave the nomination to the much more fun Alan Keyes.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: As most people expected, Rep. Mike McIntyre announced that he will run for re-election instead of for the Senate seat held by Richard Burr. Which is just as well, as McIntyre is pretty conservative and also needed to hold down his reddish district. SoS Elaine Marshall is probably the biggest name left who’s sounding interested in the Senate race.

• OH-Sen: George Voinovich had one of his occasional moments of independence the other day, telling the Columbus Dispatch that too many conservative southerners (specifically citing Jim DeMint and Tom Coburn) are dragging down the party’s brand nationwide. “They get on TV and go ‘errrr, errrrr,'” he said. “People hear them and say, ‘These people, they’re southerners. The party’s being taken over by southerners. What they hell they got to do with Ohio?'” (I’m not quite sure what “errrr, errrr” means — maybe it’s supposed to be some sort of Frankenstein’s Monster noise — but otherwise it’s spot on.)

• CT-Gov: State senator Gary LeBeau, from East Hartford, seems to be the first Democrat to actually announce his candidacy for Governor. He’s been a Senator since 1996. Potential candidates he may face in the primary include Stamford mayor Daniel Malloy, SoS Susan Bysiewicz (both of whom have outpaced incumbent Governor Jodi Rell at fundraising so far), former state House speaker James Amman, and former Senate candidate Ned Lamont.

• MI-Gov: Although Lt. Gov. John Cherry seems on track to the Dem nomination, he got another primary opponent, former state Rep. John Freeman. Freeman’s hook is strong ties with organized labor, but Cherry is also friendly with labor. State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith is also in the race, and former MSU football coach George Perles is all but in.

• MN-Gov: Will he or won’t he? After the news broke last night that Norm Coleman wasn’t planning to run for Governor, that has been updated today to reflect that he won’t really decide until some point in spring 2010… which seems intended to give his personal brand some time to, uh, recover his interminable contesting of the Senate election, but still sounds very odd, as the party’s endorsing convention is in late April, giving him almost no time to ramp up.

• SD-Gov: If there’s one job that’s even more thankless than being state Senate minority leader in South Dakota, it’s being the Democrats’ gubernatorial candidate in South Dakota. Kudos to Scott Heideprem for doing both. Likely GOP contenders include Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and state Senate majority leader Dave Knudsen.

• TX-Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison is already shaking up her campaign staff, confronted with polls that show her faltering in the gubernatorial primary as incumbent Rick Perry consolidates the hard-core base with his ranting against the feds. Campaign manager Rick Wiley is out, replaced by Terry Sullivan.

• CA-26: Rep. David Dreier has reimbursed himself an unusually high $200,000 out of his congressional campaign funds this decade, without the proper level of itemization required by the FEC, and watchdog groups are starting to wonder why. He says these are mostly mundane food expenses and that he’ll provide additional documentation if the FEC makes him. Hopefully he’s not making the same mistake a lot of small-time crooks make: when you launder money, you don’t put it in the Dreier afterwards.

• FL-16: With state Sen. Dave Aronberg running for AG, our next best bet is probably St. Lucie Co. Commissioner Chris Craft, and he’s “leaning” toward jumping into the race against freshman GOPer Tom Rooney in the next few weeks.

• LA-02: The first Democrat to announce a run against improbable GOP Rep. Joseph Cao is state Rep. Juan LaFonta. LaFonta had been rumored to be thinking about avoiding the Dem primary and running as an Independent, but won’t. State Rep. Cedric Richmond, who lost last year’s primary, and State Sen. Cheryl Grey Evans also sound likely to get in.

• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark made her run official, filing the paperwork for her candidacy ysterday. She’ll face off against 06 candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg and former IP member Maureen Reed in the primary.

• MS-01: This has been expected since state Sen. Merle Flowers said he wouldn’t run, but state Sen. Alan Nunnelee made it official yesterday, filing to run against Rep. Travis Childers. Nunnelee’s opening salvo against Blue Dog Childers was that he votes with Nancy Pelosi “100 percent.” Which is true, if by 100%, you actually mean 61%.

• TX-32: Here’s a profile of Grier Raggio, the locally-prominent attorney who’s running for the Democrats in the 32nd. The district still is Republican-leaning, but demographics are poised to move it quickly in our direction.

• FL-St. House: Term limits look like they’ll cut a sizable swath through the GOP delegation in Florida’s state House, with Republicans facing 25 open seats in 2010 — many of which are narrowly GOP-leaning and in Dem-trending central Florida — compared with only three for Democrats. Dems are starting out in a very deep hole in the state House, so an outright takeover isn’t likely, but it may bring them closer to balance.