Tag: SurveyUSA

Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49 (60)

Carl Paladino (R): 43 (23)

Other: 1 (1)

Undecided: 7 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

The entire political world’s been abuzz about this poll, showing an astounding tightening of this race in under a month, going from Cuomo +37 to Cuomo +6. In that timeframe, Cuomo’s unfavorables spiked, going from 54-21 to 51-34. Still good numbers, but Paladino’s name rec has soared, taking him from 16-13 to a not-exactly-great 36-31. The biggest change of all, though, is structural: Quinnipiac finally switched to a likely voter model, whereas all of its previous polling on this race relied on responses from registered voters.

A potentially major issue with this poll is Quinnipiac’s failure to include Rick Lazio, who when we last checked still had the Conservative Party line. While Lazio hasn’t made up his mind about how vigorously he plans to contest the election, his name will remain on the ballot unless some shenanigoats are pulled on his behalf. (After the Jon Powers debacle last cycle, in which he unsuccessfully tried to have himself taken off the Working Families line by moving out of the state, pretty much the only reliable way off the ballot now is to get nominated for a judgeship – or croak.) Quinnipiac’s reasons for not including Lazio don’t seem compelling, and as Nate Silver suggests, they could have tested with and without him.

One other detail: Q’s poll was in the field for an unusual five days… and I notice their last survey was in the field for seven days. That’s definitely on the long side. But in any event, the real question is, is the race really this close? At least one other pollster seems to think so.

SurveyUSA (9/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49

Carl Paladino (R): 40

Other: 8

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Of course, it’s SUSA, whose internals have left a lot to be desired this cycle. Once again, 18-34 is the strongest GOP segment, preferring Paladino by a kind of amazing 56-33 margin. But they may yet be right about some things, such as the fact that it’s apparently a close race among independents (41-39 Cuomo) – which Quinnipiac sees as well (Paladino is 49-43 with indies). Thankfully Democrats still dominate the New York electorate, but this is still not where you want to be. And if SUSA’s 44D-35R-20I sample is correct, then we’ve had an amazing comedown from 2008’s 50D-26R-25I distribution.

But another pollster is seeing things very differently – though with two major caveats.

Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 24 (14)

Rick Lazio (C): 8 (16)

Undecided: 10 (14)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The analysis here is basically the inverse of what we said regarding the Q poll. As you can see, of course, Siena tested Lazio, and they don’t appear to have done a straight Cuomo-Paladino head-to-head. If the Lazio numbers are at all accurate (and he does stay in the race), then this further butresses the argument that Quinnipiac erred by not including him, since the two right-wingers are clearly sharing the same part of the pie.

But the bigger issue here is that Siena is still clinging to a registered voter model, rather than using a likely voter screen, despite election day being just six weeks away. However, Siena may have offered us a further means for comparison. Here, Paladino narrowed the race by ten points, while Quinnipiac sees him tightening things by thirty. If Siena is right, then the change in Quinnipiac’s model would account for something like a twenty-point shift. That would be more or less double the largest shifts we’ve seen when other pollsters move from RVs to LVs. (Of course, we’re comparing apples and oranges here for a variety of reasons; this would be a lot simpler if we had just one outfit that tested both types of voters.)

So what’s the answer? Has Paladino turned this into a real race? Or is Cuomo still cruising? I think it’s impossible to say without more polling, and I’m sure that the stir these numbers have generated will inspire more companies to go into the field. (And for what it’s worth, Harry Enten claims on Twitter that Marist will have a new poll out on Friday showing better results for Cuomo.)

If you’re in the mood to be depressed, my good buddy Jake (aka the artist formerly known as Trapper John) thinks Cuomo’s in real trouble, and he may well be right. Voters are ticked off and, especially in New York State, truly disgusted at politicians. Cuomo’s spent his whole life acting like an entitled twit, and he’s seemed to view this election as a coronation. Meanwhile, Paladino, revolting meatbucket that he is, is a true outsider with a ton of money and a lot of anger on his side. If this race comes down to barfbag versus d-bag, voters may just wind up holding their noses. And as a New Yorker, I can tell you that the thought of Gov. Paladino chills me to my soul. Let’s just pray Siena is right.

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Adam Smith (D-inc): 49

Dick Muri (R): 46

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Now here’s a race that wasn’t on anybody’s mind (except for Real Clear Politics, who consider every race with a sentient Republican to be at least “Likely Dem”): Washington’s 9th district, a D+5 narrow swath of middle-class suburbs reaching from SeaTac Airport in the north to Fort Lewis in the south. Adam Smith has held this uneventfully since 1996, when he picked it up from Randy Tate, who got washed in with the tide in ’94 and washed out with the next normal election.

Nevertheless, I’m not altogether surprised here. The GOP didn’t just run their usual Some Dude here; they dug up a Pierce County Councilor (that’s the state’s second-largest county, where Tacoma is) in the form of Dick Muri. The only reason you haven’t heard anything about this race nationally is because a) it’s D+5, at the outer edge of what’s feasible for a pickup, and b) Muri has raised near-bupkus (currently sitting on $96K in cash, although he may now be getting more of a second look). And then in the Top 2 primary, the cumulative Dem/Green vs. GOP vote, a good predictor of where the general election will wind up, was about 55-45 (with the GOP vote being deeply split between establishmentarian Muri and a teabagger). So, take that 10-point spread that the primary would predict, throw in the 6-or-7 point rightward skew that we’ve been seeing from SurveyUSA versus, well, everybody else in their polling of west coast states (WA-Sen, CA-Sen… need I go on?), and… voila! You have a 3-point Smith lead.

As much as it’s reasonable to expect that Smith will hold on in the high-single-digits (especially since he’s right below the 50% mark), this race should not be ignored, and we’re moving it to “Likely Democratic” (from Safe Democratic).

• AR-Sen: Move along, nothing to see here. Talk Business, via Hendrix College, is out with another poll of the Arkansas Senate race. They find John Boozman leading Blanche Lincoln 56-29, with 5 for indie Trevor Drown. (The previous Talk Business poll, taken by Zata|3, had it at 57-32.)

• DE-Sen: Trying to put his money where his mouth is, Jim DeMint, via his Senate Conservatives Funds, is going on the air with a new cable TV spot on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. The buy is for at least $250K. As I expected, it makes very obvious hay out of Harry Reid’s dumb reference to Chris Coons as his “pet.”

• FL-Sen: This is a long read, but worth checking out, not just from a partisan standpoint but also as insight into the constant revolving door between politics, big law, academia, and the nebulous world of “consulting.” It’s a thorough going-over of Marco Rubio’s finances over the years, looking at some of the already-known stuff (his foreclosure problems and overuse of state party credit cards) but also at the connections that have gradually allowed him to enrich himself.

• KS-Sen, KS-Gov: SurveyUSA finds… brace yourselves… Republicans in the lead in Kansas! The Senate race appears to be out in no-man’s land, with Jerry Moran leading Lisa Johnston 66-24. The Governor’s race, however, remains moderately interesting, with Sam Brownback up over Tom Holland 59-32. Still not a good result, but that’s a 15-point swing in Holland’s favor from last time, as he now leads among self-described moderates.

• KY-Sen: This poll from last week is probably interesting enough for the front page… but it’s getting more than a little stale, after our having repeatedly fumbled attempts to write it up, so we’re just dropping it off here (figuring many of you have already seen it on over at Daily Kos). PPP, on behalf of Big Orange, finds that Rand Paul leads Jack Conway 49-42. On the plus side, not much of an enthusiasm gap here, thanks to Paul’s polarizing nature; it’s just a solidly red state.

• LA-Sen: Two different polls in Louisiana tell different stories. Dem pollster Bennett Petts & Normington, on behalf of the DSCC, sees a 10-point race, with David Vitter leading Charlie Melancon 48-38. On the other hand, Republican pollster Magellan sees it as an 18-point race: 52-34. The truth, as is often said, probably lies somewhere in between.

• UT-Sen: The Senate half of the Dan Jones poll (for the Deseret News and KSL-TV) finally showed up. In what could be called “not a surprise,” the Republican is winning in Utah. Mike Lee (who turfed out Bob Bennett at the state convention) is easily beating Sam Granato, 52-25.

• WA-Sen: Here’s a nice story about hypocrisy… or hypoc-Rossi, in this case. Dino Rossi made a campaign stop at a Whidbey Island shipyard last week, one that’s nearly doubled its workforce from 130 to 210. Turns out, though, that the shipyard received $841K in stimulus funds, and the yard’s owner says the expansion is a direct result of the stimulus. (Interestingly, Rossi, without any guidance from Admiral Ackbar, may have sailed right into A TRAP: he showed up at the invitation of the yard’s owner, who has donated to Patty Murray in the past.)

• WI-Sen: If that Rossi hypocrisy story seems kind of small potatoes to you, well, don’t worry, because Ron Johnson seems to have, over the last few weeks, been exposed as the absolute master of hypocrisy about engorging yourself on the government teat all the while raging against it. While he can claim that building-a-rail-spur-to-Pacur thing was in the distant past, now it comes out that in March 2009, in his role as board member of Oshkosh’s Grand Opera House, he sought stimulus funds for renovations to the opera. Y’know, the stimulus bill that’s KILLING US ALL AND ALL FUTURE GENERATIONS!!1!  

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin has had good relations with the state-level Chamber of Commerce, who’ve backed him in the past. They must have put in a good word for him with the national organization, as now the US Chamber of Commerce is endorsing him too, quite the rarity for a high-profile Dem.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s previous defense against the massive Medicare fraud problems at his former healthcare company Columbia/HCA was that he’d have stopped them if only he’d known they were going on (which, considering his job was to run the company, should have demolished his credibility right there). But now it’s been revealed that his legal team was keeping him apprised, at least on the issue of trying to skirt a federal anti-kickback law.

• FL-22: They’ve had to call out the biggest fundraising gun of all for Ron Klein, seeing as how he’s up against a nutty opponent but one with a direct line into seemingly hundreds of thousands of teabaggers’ wallets in Allen West. Barack Obama will fundraise for Klein in the Miami area on Oct. 11 (at the home of former NBA star Alonzo Mourning).

• MS-01: The Tarrance Group is out with another Alan Nunnelee internal giving him a single-digit lead over Travis Childers in the 1st: this time, he’s up 48-41.

• NY-23: Would you believe the NY-23 count is still going on? Although it seems like Matt Doheny is the likely victor in the GOP primary, with a 582-vote lead right now, 1,969 military and overseas ballots remain to be counted. In Friday’s count, Doug Hoffman added 207 votes while Doheny added 177.

• American Crossroads: Rove, Inc., seems to be becoming the main conduit for billionaires looking to put their thumbs on the electoral scales but skeptical of the Michael Steele-helmed RNC: they raised $14.5 million in the last 30 days, almost doubling their year-to-date total.

• NRCC: The NRCC is out with a bonanza of IEs in 23 different districts (click the FEC link for specific numbers): PA-11, VA-09, PA-08, WI-07, NJ-03, PA-03, IL-14, MI-01, MI-07, PA-07, NC-07, IL-11, AL-02, AZ-01, CA-11, FL-02, KY-06, MS-01, TN-08, TX-23, VA-05, IN-02, and IL-10.

• SEIU: So, while the CoC is endorsing the Dem in West Virginia, the SEIU is endorsing the not-Dem in Rhode Island: they’ve thrown their backing behind indie Lincoln Chafee. (United Nurses and Allied Professionals will also endorse Chafee today, and the AFL-CIO is currently meeting about which way to go.) The SEIU is also out with a couple IEs of their own, spending $250K against Tim Walberg in MI-07 and $435K against deep-pocketed Jim Renacci in OH-16.

• SSP TV:

• CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with three different ads focusing on various aspects of Ken Buck’s nuttery, including the 17th Amendment and opposition to common birth control methods

• CT-Sen: Richard Blumenthal’s ad focuses on pushback against various Linda McMahon misrepresentations

• FL-22: Ron Klein calls out Allen West for his various veiled calls for armed uprising

• HI-01: Charles Djou’s first ad of the general is a positive spot listing accomplishments from his short time in office

• IL-10: Bob Dold! ties Dan Seals to Nancy Pelosi in a health care-themed ad

• PA-10: Here’s the winner of the day: Chris Carney quickly and effectively summarizes the nasty links between Tom Marino and Louis DeNaples

• PA-15: Charlie Dent goes after John Callahan’s bookkeeping as mayor of Bethlehem

• WI-08: Steve Kagen dips into the well of 50s-era public-domain stock footage to hit Reid Ribble on his calls for Social Security phaseout

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 50%, Bob Ehrlich 47%

• MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) 54%, Eric Wargotz (R) 38%

• NH-Gov: John Lynch (D-inc) 48%, John Stephen (R) 46%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 54%, Carl Paladino (R) 38%, Rick Lazio (C) 0% because Rasmussen didn’t bother to include him

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Scott Walker (R) 51%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 43%

SurveyUSA (9/13-15, likely voters, 7/9-11 in parens):

Tarryl Clark (D): 40 (39)

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 49 (48)

Bob Anderson (IP): 6 (6)

Aubrey Immelman (I): 1 (2)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Not much has changed since July, despite a ream of attack ads from Camp Bachmann on Tarryl Clark’s tax votes in the legislature. SUSA still finds that Bachmann is the choice of Generation Now, giving her a big 57-31 lead among 18 to 34 year-olds, while the gray-haired set in the 50-plus crowd backs Clark by 48-41 (up from a 1-point Bachmann lead last time).

I have a pretty jaundiced view of the chances of Dems in a district where they’ve been twice-bitten by Bachmann, and while these numbers aren’t atrocious, I just don’t see how this one gets done.

SurveyUSA for KING-TV (9/12-14, likely voters 8/21-22 in parentheses)

Denny Heck (D): 43 (41)

Jaime Herrera (R): 52 (54)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

SurveyUSA takes its second look at the open seat race in WA-03 to replace retiring Dem Brian Baird, and they find that Denny Heck has narrowed the gap slightly, though Herrera’s already over 50%. This could be via better name rec for Heck via continued presence on the airwaves, or just float within the narrow band established by their last poll (and the cumulative Dem/GOP results (54 GOP-42 Dem) of the Top 2 primary).

This being SurveyUSA (and this being Washington, where their age skew always seems especially pronounced), you’re probably wondering how those young people feel about this race. Well, it seems like they’re really eager to take Herrera out for a malted and then to the sock hop, because she leads Heck 56-38 among the 18-34 crowd. Oldsters want Herrera to turn down that racket, though: Heck actually leads 48-46 among the 65+ crowd.

Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (43)

John Kasich (R): 54 (38)

Undecided: 7 (15)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 35 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (40)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Given that every other pollster has seen a very bumpy ride for Democrats as they make the transition from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, I was already expecting a steep drop for the Dems in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling (they’re the last of the major pollsters to make the switch to LVs). But, dang, that is one unbelievably steep drop, not consistent with the 5-point-ish RV-to-LV difference seen elsewhere (including Qpac’s Connecticut polling this week, or PPP’s latest round of Ohio polling). Take the Senate race, for example: I have absolutely zero doubt that Lee Fisher is trailing in reality, and probably by at least 10, but the 20-point reversal plus these favorables suggest a decidedly GOP-ish sample (Fisher 29/36, Portman 44/20, and Obama 38/60).

SurveyUSA for WCMH (9/10-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40

John Kasich (R): 52

Other: 5

Undecided: 3

Lee Fisher (D): 40

Rob Portman (R): 49

Other: 7

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44

John Kasich (R): 51

Undecided: 1

Lee Fisher (D): 41

Rob Portman (R): 52

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I hate to be that guy who cherrypicks polls, but SurveyUSA and particularly CNN/Time’s polls seem more plausible here. Neither of them have trendlines, but CNN/Time is instructive because it looks at an RV model as well as an LV model. Among registered voters, they find Kasich leading 49-46 (a 4-point variance from the LV model) and Portman leading 49-42 (a 3-point variance). That’s much more consistent with usual enthusiasm gap findings, so it’s a good bet to assume that the Republicans are “only” leading in the 7-11 point range. Yay!

Well, Ted Strickland knows how to fight back. He rolled out an internal poll showing a 3-point lead… for John Kasich?!? (It’s from the Feldman Group, and the toplines are 48-45). Given the Raul Labrador rule, and on top of that, the fact that Strickland is the incumbent, that internal poll doesn’t leave me feeling any more confident than before. The Strickland camp is rolling out two new ads and is also benefiting from a huge AFL-CIO direct mail blitz on their behalf, but given the national climate, it looks like money alone isn’t going to fix these races.

SurveyUSA (9/12-14, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (46)

Tom Emmer (R): 36 (32)

Tom Horner (I): 18 (9)

Other: 5 (n/a)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

For a sec I thought, “That was one hell of a primary bounce!” But no – SUSA’s last poll was taken before the DFL primary. And man is there a lot of churn here. Among the named candidates, we’re looking at 21 points of net delta, and that doesn’t even account for the 9-point drop in undecideds. Has the race really changed so much in month-and-a-half, to go from D+14 to D+2? Or was that earlier Dayton lead just way too gaudy?

Well, for starters, things are back to “normal” – at least, normal for SUSA-land – which is to say, the kids love them some Tom Emmer, with the youngest cohort supporting him at 46-30 clip, the only group among which he leads. In August, by contrast, Dayton led this bracket 43-35. It’s also worth pointing out that there were huge gyrations among all age groups. The good news is that Dayton does better with his own party than Emmer does with his, winning Dems 74-7 (vs. Republicans going 72-11 for Emmer).

Given that SurveyUSA’s June poll of the race showed a three-point Dayton lead, it’s tempting to write the middle poll off as an outlier. But the poll before that gave Emmer an eight-point lead. So wild swings seem to be the order of the day for SUSA – 11 points, then 11 points again, and now 12 points. I don’t really think this race is that volatile – do you?

SurveyUSA for KWCH-TV (9/14-15, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 40 (42)

Mike Pompeo (R): 50 (49)

David Moffett (L): 3 (4)

Susan Ducey (RP): 4 (1)

Undecided: 4 (5)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

SUSA strikes again, finding Dem Raj Goyle trailing Mike Pompeo by 10 points in this deep red district. Pompeo is helped by an implausible 66-22 lead among 18-to-34 year-olds (up from 48-26 in August). Eventually, SUSA will have to seriously examine why their methodology is conducive to this problem while other IVR pollsters, like PPP, haven’t been plagued by the same issue. Another issue is a bit of procedural sloppiness – SUSA tested Libertarian David Moffett, despite the fact that he dropped out of the race and was substituted for Shawn Smith a week ago. Meanwhile, the Goyle campaign has released their latest internal poll:

Gerstein | Agne for Raj Goyle (9/8-9, likely voters, 8/10-11 in parens):

Raj Goyle (D): 44 (47)

Mike Pompeo (R): 46 (50)

Shawn Smith (L): 4 (-)

Susan Ducey (RP): 2 (-)

Undecided: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Their full polling memo is available below the fold. One area of concurrence between SUSA and Goyle’s pollster is that Goyle is running quite strongly among independents: SUSA gave Goyle a 7-point lead among that bloc, while Gerstein has Goyle up by 8.

SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (9/12-14, likely voters, 7/25-27 in parentheses):

John Kitzhaber (D): 43 (44)

Chris Dudley (R): 49 (46)

Other: 5 (7)

Undecided: 3 (4)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 54 (53)

Jim Huffman (R): 38 (35)

Other: 4 (9)

Undecided: 3 (3)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA’s newest poll of the Oregon governor’s race continues to have Republican Chris Dudley leading Dem John Kitzhaber, this time by 6 points. It’s superficially easy to take this poll with a grain of salt, seeing as how SurveyUSA has wound up significantly in outlier territory in the states that bookend Oregon (in CA-Sen and WA-Sen) and the crosstabs offer the usual confounding details (like a 48-48 tie between the two in the Portland area). Even if you think this race is closer to a tie, though, geez, what a missed opportunity… John Kitzhaber spent a year trying to occupy the intellectual high ground, completely foregoing the opportunity to define Dudley early as a dilettanteish empty vessel, and all he got for his good intentions was a completely avoidable Tossup.

Riley Research (pdf) (8/31-9/9, likely voters, no trendlines):

John Kitzhaber (D): 40

Chris Dudley (R): 39

Other: 5

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

This has been a woefully underserved race, with SurveyUSA and Rasmussen left to set the story (with the only other poll I can think of, from well-respected local pollster Tim Hibbitts, showing the race a tie in early summer). So it’s good to get a second opinion from someone who’s a local pollster and not an auto-dialer (even if it’s one I’m not familiar with). They see this as a much closer race, giving Kitzhaber a tiny lead, although with a much bigger share of undecideds. Maybe most interestingly, Kitzhaber actually leads among indies (38-29); the problem here seems to be that Dudley fares much better among GOPers (79%) than Kitzhaber does among Dems (69%).

SurveyUSA (9/12-14, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (46)

Tom Emmer (R): 36 (32)

Tom Horner (I): 18 (9)

Other: 5 (n/a)

Undecided: 4 (13)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

For a sec I thought, “That was one hell of a primary bounce!” But no – SUSA’s last poll was taken before the DFL primary. And man is there a lot of churn here. Among the named candidates, we’re looking at 21 points of net delta, and that doesn’t even account for the 9-point drop in undecideds. Has the race really changed so much in month-and-a-half, to go from D+14 to D+2? Or was that earlier Dayton lead just way too gaudy?

Well, for starters, things are back to “normal” – at least, normal for SUSA-land – which is to say, the kids love them some Tom Emmer, with the youngest cohort supporting him at 46-30 clip, the only group among which he leads. In August, by contrast, Dayton led this bracket 43-35. It’s also worth pointing out that there were huge gyrations among all age groups. The good news is that Dayton does better with his own party than Emmer does with his, winning Dems 74-7 (vs. Republicans going 72-11 for Emmer).

Given that SurveyUSA’s June poll of the race showed a three-point Dayton lead, it’s tempting to write the middle poll off as an outlier. But the poll before that gave Emmer an eight-point lead. So wild swings seem to be the order of the day for SUSA – 11 points, then 11 points again, and now 12 points. I don’t really think this race is that volatile – do you?