Congress – Page 16 – Swing State Project

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Progress Report — Thank You!

“I want to thank all the Democratic voters who came out and voted in the 5th district yesterday. I congratulate Bill Cahir and Rick Vilello for the positive campaigns they ran. As candidates, we ran campaigns that showed respect to each other and to the voters in the 5th district.

I also want to congratulate the winner of the Republican primary Glenn Thompson. Mr. Thompson stayed on course with his message throughout his campaign and I look forward to our competition in the November general election.

Finally, I want to thank everyone who helped with our campaign. There are so many people throughout the 17 counties of the 5th district who were involved in the campaign. What started in January with 12 candidates is now down to 2. There is much work to be done over the next several months. After meeting with people in the 5th district for the last 4 months I am convinced that our campaign’s message is strong and we will prevail in November.”

Mark B. McCracken

Still – Your Candidate for Congress

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Progress Report — 4/21/08

Another Busy Week – Less Than 1 Day To Go!!!

I started out the week on Monday with a trip to State College to meet with the PSU College Democrats. I took the time to give special thanks to the PSU Dems for their hard work getting students registered to vote in this election. It really is encouraging to see how interested young voters throughout the district are about this election. I think our young people realize that they have to get involved and make a difference in this election.

Later in the week on Thursday, I had an afternoon radio interview on WPHB followed in the evening with a trip to Clarion for the Clarion University Young Dems Spring Unity Banquet. The Clarion Young Dems have a very involved and active group. They have had representation at every 5th District candidate event held in Clarion throughout the campaign. It was great to get a final chance to meet with them before Election Day. We also had people in attendance throughout the day at the stops by President Clinton in Brookville, St. Marys and Clearfield. The crowd in Clearfield to see Pres. Clinton wrapped around the front of the Clearfield Middle School and wrapped around onto Mill Rd. Everyone was in high spirits and thankfully the weather cooperated. Our campaign stopped and talked about the issues important to citizens of the 5th District and we feel that our message was warmly received by the gathered crowd.

Friday, I traveled to DuBois to participate in Eyes Wide Open, a traveling exhibit to help educate the public on the real costs of the Iraq war. The exhibit contained several banners that describe the monetary costs of the war and compares what we could do here in the United States with the funds. The most moving part of the exhibit was the 183 pairs of military boots with the names attached of the fallen PA soldiers and civilians who have died in Iraq during the conflict. It was a very moving exhibit and should make our resolve even stronger to end the conflict and bring the troops home as soon as possible.

On Saturday, we attended the annual Blue White Game at Penn State. It was a warm sunny day and it was a lot of fun working the tailgate parties in the parking lot. However, I found 2 things: 1 – The majority of Penn State fans travel in from outside of the 5th district, and 2 – A good number start drinking the hard stuff early in the morning and have no interest in politics once the alcohol takes effect. I do want to thank State Rep. Scott Conklin, the PSU College Dems and the Obama State College Campaign Staff for hosting a great tailgate event. One note from the blogger: You can see more about the Blue White Game in the CDT article written by Mike Joseph. It can be found here:although I’m not sure if I would make a good caddy.

The week ended today with a trip back over to Happy Valley to work the line waiting to attend Sen. Hillary Clinton’s visit to Penn State. It was an excited group waiting to see Sen. Clinton and their spirits were high in spite of a cold downpour that started around 5:30. I really enjoy the one on one campaigning that we were able to do both Saturday and Sunday.

I’ll close this last report before Election Day with a round of thanks to everyone who has helped with the campaign thus far. We started back in mid-January and what has been accomplished so far is because of everyone who has been involved. I also want to thank and wish the best of luck to all the Democratic candidates who are on the ballot on Tuesday. It’s been a privilege to campaign and attend events with these people.

Finally, I want to give a special thank you to my 2 fellow Democratic candidates in the 5th District race. I truly admire the way Rick, Bill and I have focused on the issues of this campaign, met with the voters and kept our campaigns positive. I’ve told several people over the last week, our party and our eventual nominee in the 5th district will be stronger because of the positive campaigns all 3 of us ran. Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, we are tested and ready to take on the Republican candidate in November. I have a stronger opinion today than I did in January when I started the campaign – a Democrat WILL be elected in the 5th Congressional District in 2008.

One final note: Please tell as many people as you can – Support Mark B. McCracken for Congress – #1 on the Democratic Ballot.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate For Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

ActBlue page

AL-01, Fuller a genuine Democrat, he assures progressives

In a recent exchange of emails, Thomas E. Fuller, Democratic candidate for Congress in Alabama’s First District, assured progressives that “you will not be disappointed in my stand on the issues or my commitment to Democratic Principles.” This was in response to a direct inquiry involving withdrawal from Iraq, support for S-CHIP, retroactive immunity for telecoms, and tax breaks for billionaires. It will be a pleasure to support a true Democrat as a change from incumbent Bush-bot, Jo Bonner.

Fuller is the chair of the Washington County Democratic Party and will need support from all Progressives to unseat the detestable Bonner.

Congressional races that were close in 2006

There are 435 seats in the House.

Some are near locks for one party or the other. Some are close. No race is a sure thing (50 state strategy) but the races that were close in 2006 are clearly the ones that are most likely to switch in 2008. One reason they might switch is fundraising. So, below the fold, I look at districts that were within 10 points in 2006

Financing info is from the FEC

Polling info is from Election Inspection

The DCCC list is here

SSP ratings are here

District AZ-01

Incumbent Renzi (R)

2006 opponent Ellen Simon

Margin and notes 52-43, remainder to a Libertarian.

Current situation

Renzi is retiring.

Allan Affeldt (D) no recent info

Ann Kirkpatrick (D) $660K raised, $465K COH

Jeff Riley (D) $220K raised, $216K COH, $205K debt

Howard Shanker (D) $137K raised, $34K COH, $9K debt

Ellen Simon (D) $13K raised, $0 COH, $252K debt

Mary Kim Titla (D) $169K raised, $49K COH

Sydney Hay (R) $268K raised, $222K COH, $70K debt

Preston Korn (R) $19K raised, $10K COH, $3K debt

Assessment AZ-01 went 54-45 for Bush, but it’s still possible.

SSP rating: Tossup

On the DCCC list

District AZ-05

Incumbent Harry Mitchell (D)

2006 opponent JD Hayworth

Margin and notes 50-46. Mitchell had a million less to work with, and Hayworth was the incumbent.

Current situation

Mitchell (D): $1.3 millon raised, $1.1 million COH

Schweikert (R): $681K raised, $514K COH, $250K debt

Ogsbury (R): $427K raised, $353K COH, $250K debt

Knaperek (R): $100K raised, $44K COH

Anderson (R): $55K raised, $70K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Leans D

On the DCCC list

District CA-04

Incumbent John Doolittle (R)

2006 opponent Charlie Brown

Margin and notes 49-46; Doolittle raised $2.4 million, Brown $1.6

Current situation

Doolittle’s done, he’s and Brown is running again.

Charlie Brown (D) $950 K raised, $590K COH, $26K debt

John Wolfgram (D) no funding info

Eric Egland (R) $193K raised, $49K COH

John Holmes (R) $26K raised, $0 COH

Tom McClintock(R) $316K raised, $126K COH

Doug Ose (R) $2.4 million raised, $801K COH, $1.0 million debt

Assessment This is a rare case where it would have been easier to run against an incumbent….but still, it bears watching.

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District CA-11

Incumbent Jerry McNerney (D)

2006 opponent Richard Pombo

Margin and notes 53-47, even though McNerney was outspent by $2 million.

Current situation

Jerry McNerney (D): $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH, $48K debt

Dean Andal (R): $638K raised, $531K COH, $25K debt

Assessment Bush took CA-11 by 54-45 in 2004, it’s an R+3 district. But McNerney has a fundraising lead and name recognition

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District CO-04

Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R)

2006 opponent Angie Paccione

Margin and notes 46-43, Musgrave spent over $1 million more and was the incumbent.

Current situation

Betsy Markey (D) $594K raised, $376K COH, $25K debt

Marilyn Musgrave (R) $1.4 million raised, 1.0 million COH, $16K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District CT-02

Incumbent Joe Courtney (D)

2006 opponent Rob Simmons

Margin and notes 73 votes out of 242,000. Courtney got $2.4 million to Simmons $3.2. Simmons was the incumbent

Current situation

Joe Courtney (D) $1.5 million raised, $1.2 million COH

Sean Sullivan (R) $230K raised, $121K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District CT-04

Incumbent Christopher Shays (R)

2006 opponent Diane Farrell

Margin and notes 51-48. Shays raised $3.8 million, Farrell just under $3 million. Shays was the incumbent

Current situation

Jim Himes (D) $1.4 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Chris Shays (R) $1.6 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment To be equal in fundraising to the incumbent is impressive.

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District FL-08

Incumbent Ric Keller (R)

2006 opponent Charlie Stuart

Margin and notes 53-46. Keller was the incumbent and raised $1.7 million. Stuart raised $1 million

Current situation

Alexander Fry (D) $19K raised, $15K COH

Alan Grayson (D) $142K raised, -$4K COH, $75K debt

Corbett Krohler (D) $59K raised, $0 COH, $54K debt

Mike Smith (D) $443K raised, $296K COH

Charles Stuart (D) $415K raised, $316K COH, $101K debt

Quoc Va Banh (D) $3K raised, $0 COH

Bob Hering (R) $69K raised, $53K COH, $20K debt

Ric Keller (R) $742K raised, $735K COH

Todd Long (R) $192K raised, $17K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District FL-13

Incumbent Vern Buchanan (R)

2006 opponent Christine Jennings

Margin and notes 369 votes out of 237,000; Jennings raised $3 million, but Buchanan had $8 million. This was the most expensive race in the country. Katharine Harris’ old district

Current situation

Christine Jennings (D) $1.1 million, $483K COH

Vern Buchanan (R) $2.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment

Polls: Early March – Buchanan 53, Jennings 37SSP rating:

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District FL-16

Incumbent Tim Mahoney (D)

2006 opponent Joe Negron

Margin and notes 50-48; this was Mark Foley’s seart. Mahoney raised $2.8 million and Negron $800K

Current situation

Tim Mahoney (D) $2.1 million raised, $1.0 million COH

Gayle Harrell (R) $546K raised, $256K COH, $25K debt

Thomas Rooney (R) $691K raised, $421K COH, $25K debt

Rob Siedlecki (R) no funding info

Hal Valeche (R) no funding info

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District FL-22

Incumbent Ron Klein (D)

2006 opponent Clay Shaw

Margin and notes 51-47; Shaw, who was the incumbent, raised $5 million; Klein raised $4 million

Current situation

Ron Klein (D) $2.2 million raised, $2.1 million COH, $18K debt

Marc Flagg (R) $64K raised, $0 COH

Clay Shaw (R) $62K raised, $11K COH

Allen West (R) $101K raised, $57K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

On the DCCC list

District GA-08

Incumbent Jim Marshall (D)

2006 opponent Mac Collins

Margin and notes 51-49; Marshall, the incumbent, held off Collins. Each raised about $2 million

Current situation

Jim Marshall (D) $1.0 million raised, $1.2 million COH, $7.5K debt

Robert Nowak (D) $10K raised, $1K COH

Rick Goddard (R) $577K raised, $404K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Leans D

On the DCCC list

District GA-12

Incumbent John Barrow (D)

2006 opponent Max Burns

Margin and notes 864 votes of 140,000, Barrow, who was the incumbent, held off Max Burns, who used to hold this seat. Each had a little over $2 million.

Current situation

John Barrow (D) $1.4 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $65K debt

Rodney Edenfield (R) $14K raised, $0 COH

Raymond McKinney (R) $35K raised, $10K COH, $17K debt

John Stone (R) $61K raised, $43K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District ID-01

Incumbent Bill Sali (R)

2006 opponent Larry Grant

Margin and notes 50-45, Sali raised $1 million, Grant about $750K

Current situation

Walter Minnick (D) $629K raised, $321K COH

Bill Sali (R) $405K raised, $124K COH, $145K debt

Matt Salisbury (R) $41K raised, $5K debt

Assessment ID-01 is about as Republican as districts get – Cook PVI of R + 19. But Sali is crazy. Larry Grant withdrew and endorsed Minnick.

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District IL-06

Incumbent Peter Roskam (R)

2006 opponent Tammy Duckworth

Margin and notes 51-49. This is Henry Hyde’s old seat, it was open in 2006, and Duckworth raised more than Roskam ($4.5 million to $3.5 million)

Current situation

Jill Morgenthaler (D) $307K raised, $161K COH, $10K debt

Peter Roskam (R) $1.4 million raised, $967K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District IL-08

Incumbent Melissa Bean (D)

2006 opponent David McSweeney

Margin and notes 51-44. Bean, the incumbent, held off David McSweeney, although he raised $5.1 million to her $4.3 million, and this is a R+5 district.

Current situation

Melissa Bean (D) $2.2 million raised, $1.4 million COH, $17K debt

Randi Scheuer (D) no funding info

Steve Greenberg (R) $522K raised, $5K COH, $153K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District IL-10

Incumbent Mark Kirk (R)

2006 opponent Dan Seals

Margin and notes 53-47. Kirk, the incumbent, raised $3.5 million to Seals’ $1.8 million.

Current situation

Dan Seals (D) $1.47 million raised, $745K COH

Mark Kirk (R) $2.95 million raised, $2.92 million COH

Assessment

Polls: Early Feb. Kirk 46 Seals 39

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District IN-02

Incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)

2006 opponent Chris Chocola

Margin and notes 54-46. Donnelly ousted Chocola, though he had less than half as much money (1.5 million to 3.4 million)

Current situation

Joe Donnelly (D) $1.1 million raised, $713K COH, $49K debt

Luke Puckett (R) $5K raised, $0 COH

Joseph Roush (R) no funding info

Anthony Zirkle (R) no funding info

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District IN-03

Incumbent Mark Souder (R)

2006 opponent Thomas Hayhurst

Margin and notes 54-46. Souder, the incumbent, and Hayhurst each raised about $700K

Current situation

Michael Montagno (D) $205K raised, $181K COH

Mark Souder (R) $315K raised, $211K COH

Assessment For an incumbent in a close race, Souder’s fundraising is pretty anemic.

SSP rating: Not rated

District IN-09

Incumbent Baron Hill (D)

2006 opponent Mike Sodrel

Margin and notes 50-45. Hill ousted Sodrel, despite raising less ($1.9 million to $2.7 million)

Current situation

Baron Hill (D) $1.1 million raised, $862K COH, $49K debt

Mike Sodrel (R) $201K raised, $166K COH, $1.2 million (!) in debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District IA-02

Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D)

2006 opponent Jim Leach

Margin and notes 51-49; Loebsack ousted Leach; each raised about $500K

Current situation

Dave Loebsack (D) $561K raised, $425K COH

Lee Harder (R) $9K raised, $5K COH, $1K debt

Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) $68K raised, $68K COH

Peter Teahen (R) $66K raised, $34K COH, $32K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

District IA-03

Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D)

2006 opponent Jeff Lamberti

Margin and notes 52-46. Boswell, the incumbent, and Lamberti each raised about $2 million

Current situation

Leonard Boswell (D) $983K raised, $841K COH

Ed Fallon (D) $172K raised, $20K COH, $17K debt

Kim Schmett (R) $70 (no K!) raised, $70 COH, $700 debt.

Assessment $70? Is that a joke?

SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

On the DCCC list

District KS-02

Incumbent Nancy Boyda (D)

2006 opponent Jim Ryun

Margin and notes 51-47. Boyda ousted Ryun, raising $700K to his $1 million. In 2004, Boyda lost to Ryun, 56-41.

Current situation

Nancy Boyda (D) $993K raised, $811K COH, $287K debt

Lynn Jenkins (R) $682K raised, $426K COH, $101K debt

Jim Ryun (R) $1.2 million, $489K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District KY-03

Incumbent John Yarmuth (D)

2006 opponent Anne Northrup

Margin and notes 51-48. Yarmuth ousted Northrup, he raised about $2.2 million to her $3.4 million.

Current situation

John Yarmuth (D) $1.0 million raised, $811 COH

Bob DeVore (R) no funding info

Corley Everett (R) no funding info

Anne Northrup (R) $494K raised, $428K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District KY-04

Incumbent Geoff Davis (R)

2006 opponent Ken Lucas

Margin and notes 52-43. Davis, the incumbent, raised $4.2 million to hold off Ken Lucas, who raised $1.5 million

Current situation

Michael Kelley (D) $7 K raised, $3K COH, $3K debt

Geoff Davis (R) $1.4 million raised, $720K COH, $85K debt

G. E. Puckett (R) no funding info

Warren Stone (R) no funding info

Assessment

SSP rating: Not rated (very likely R)

District MI-07

Incumbent Tim Walberg (R)

2006 opponent Sharon Renier

Margin and notes 50-46. The seat was open and Renier raised only $55K to Walberg’s $1.2 million.

Current situation

Sharon Renier (D) $2 K raised, $45 (no K) COH, $5K debt

Mark Schauer (D) $905 K raised, $751 K COH

Tim Walberg (R) $830 K raised, $604 K COH

Assessment Very impressive to be outraising an incumbent.

Polls: Feb/March – Walberg 51 Schauer 40

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District MI-09

Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R)

2006 opponent Nancy Skinner

Margin and notes 52-46. Knollenberg, first elected in 1992, raised $3 million. Skinner raised about $400K

Current situation

Gary Peters (D) $750K raised, $645K COH, $2K debt

Joe Knollenberg (R) $1.8 million raised, $1.3 million COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District MN-01

Incumbent Tim Walz (D)

2006 opponent Gil Gutnecht

Margin and notes 53-47. Walz ousted Gutnecht relatively easily, raising about $1.3 million to Gutnecht’s $1.7 million

Current situation

Tim Walz (D) $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH

Brian Davis (R) $222 K raised, $50K COH, $34K debt

Dick Day (R) $226K raised, $72K COH, $23K debt

Randy Demmer (R) $223K raised, $3K COH, $119K debt

Mark Meyer (R) $27K raised, $0 COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District MN-06

Incumbent Michele Bachmann (R)

2006 opponent Patty Wetterling

Margin and notes 50-42. This seat was open and Wetterling actually raised a bit more than Bachmann ($3million to $2.7 million)

Current situation

Bob Olson (D) $268K raised, $112K COH, $160K debt

Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) $260K raised, $102K COH

Michele Bachman (R) $1.5 million raised, $1.0 million COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District NV-02

Incumbent Dean Heller (R)

2006 opponent Jill Derby

Margin and notes 50-45. The seat was open, Derby and Heller each raised about $1.6 million

Current situation

Jill Derby (D) $144K raised, $134K COH

Dean Heller (R) $981K raised, $808K COH, $370K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District NV-03

Incumbent Jon Porter (R)

2006 opponent Tessa Hafen

Margin and notes 48-47. Porter, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Hafen’s $1.5

Current situation

Robert Daskas (D) $584K raised, $453K COH

Andrew Martin (D) $379K raised, $204K COH, $295K debt

Jon Porter (R) $1.6 million raised, $1.0 million COH, $14K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District NH-01

Incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D)

2006 opponent Jeb Bradley

Margin and notes 51-49. An amazing race. Bradley, the incumbent, raised over $1 million. Shea-Porter raised less than $300K.

Current situation

Carol Shea-Porter (D) $663K raised, $546K COH

Jeb Bradley (R) $566K raised, $516K COH, $300K debt

John Stephen (R) $337K raised, $258K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District NH-02

Incumbent Paul Hodes (D)

2006 opponent Charles Bass

Margin and notes 53-46. Hodes ousted Bass (who had beaten him by 20 points in 2004) raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2

Current situation

Grant Bosse (R) $15K raised, $10K COH

Bob Clegg (R) $120K raised, $86K raised, $100K debt

Jennifer Horn (R) $71K raised, $31K COH, $15K debt

Jim Steiner (R) $14K raised, $11K COH

Paul Hodes(D) $1.3 million raised, $832K COH, $157K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District NJ-07

Incumbent Michael Ferguson (R) who is retiring

2006 opponent Linda Stender

Margin and notes 49-48. Ferguson, the incumbent, raised $3 million and just held off Stender, who raised almost $2 million

Current situation

Linda Stender (D) $1.0 million raised, $840K COH

Kelly Hatfield $106K raised, $94K COH, $60K debt

Michael Hsing $16K raised, $13K COH

Leonard Lance $294K raised, $256K COH, $139K debt

Martin Marks $123K raised, $104K COH, $75K debt

Thomas Roughneen No funding info

Victor Sorillo No funding info

Kate Whitman $444K raised, $307K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Tossup

On the DCCC list

District NM-01

Incumbent Heather Wilson retiring

2006 opponent Patricia Madrid

Margin and notes 861 votes out of 210,000. Wilson, the incumbent, raised $4.9 million to Madrid’s $3.4 million

Current situation

Joseph Carraro no funding info

Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) $224K raised, $139K COH, $6K debt

Martin Heinrich (D) $666K raised, $342 COH, $1K debt

Robert Pidcock (D) $36K raised, $9K COH, $34K debt

Rebecca Vigil-Giron (D) $6K raised, $2K COH, $15K debt

Darren White (R) $46K raised, $297K COH

Assessment Looks good.

Polls: October – White 51 Heinrich 33

SSP rating: Tossup

On the DCCC list

District NY-19

Incumbent John Hall (D)

2006 opponent Sue Kelly

Margin and notes 51-49. Hall ousted Kelly, raising $1.6 million to her $2.5 million

Current situation

John Hall (D) $1.5 million raised, $1.1 million COH.

George Oros (R) $62K raised, $60K COH, $10K debt

Kieran Lalor (R) $87K raised, $63K COH, $13K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District NY-20

Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

2006 opponent John Sweeney

Margin and notes 53-47. Gillibrand ousted Sweeney farily easily, raising $2.5 million to his $3.4

Current situation

Kirsten Gillibrand (D) $3.1 million raised, $2.5 million COH

Michael Rocque (R) $222K raised, $52K COH

Alexander Treadwell (R) $1.68 million raised, $929K COH

Richard Wager (R) $415K raised, $197 COH

John Wallace (R) $74K raised, $4 K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District NY-24

Incumbent Michael Arcuri (D)

2006 opponent Ray Meier

Margin and notes 54-45. Arcuri raised $2.2 million to Meier’s $1.6 million for this open seat

Current situation

Michael Arcuri (D) $919K raised $591K COH

No opponents

Assessment So far, it’s a free ride

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District NY-25

Incumbent James Walsh (R)

2006 opponent Dan Maffei

Margin and notes 51-49. Walsh, the incumbent, raised $1.8 million to hold off Maffei, who raised $900K

Current situation Walsh is retiring.

Dan Maffei (D) $847K raised $676K COH

Dale Sweetland (R) No funding info

David Gay (R) No funding info

Assessment Hehe. An open seat, in a swing district, and neither GOP candidate has even filed reports with the FEC

Polls: February Maffei 41 Cappuccilli 29 (but Cappuccilli has quit)

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District NY-26

Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R)

2006 opponent Jack Davis

Margin and notes 52-48. Davis raised $2.4 million to Reynolds’ $5.3

Current situation Reynolds is retiring.

Jack Davis (D) No funding info

Alice Kryzan (D) $287K raised, $207 COH $97K debt

Jon Powers (D) $598K raised, $402K COH

No Republican has filed

Assessment Will the Republicans find anyone?

SSP rating: Tossup

On the DCCC list

District NY-29

Incumbent Randy Kuhl (R)

2006 opponent Eric Massa

Margin and notes 51-49. Kuhl and Massa each raised about $1.5 million, but Massa couldn’t knock Kuhl out

Current situation

Eric Massa (D) $868K raised, $565K COH

Randy Kuhl (R) $628K raised $366K COH

Assessment Massa continues to out-raise the incumbent (1st Q Massa got $278K to Kuhl’s $111. Prime pickup

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District NC-08

Incumbent Robin Hayes (R)

2006 opponent Larry Kissell

Margin and notes 329 votes out of 121,000. Hayes, the incumbent, raised $2.5 million, Kissell almost won, raising just $800K

Current situation

Larry Kissell (D) $392K raised, $137K COH

Robin Hayes (R) $1.3 million raised, $793K COH

Assessment

Polls: November – Kissell 49 Hayes 47

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District NC-11

Incumbent Heath Shuler (D)

2006 opponent Charles Taylor (R)

Margin and notes Shuler raised $1.8 million to oust Taylor, who raised $4.4 million

Current situation

Heath Shuler (D) $795 K raised, $626K COH

John Armor (R) no funding info

Spence Campbell (R) $188K raised, $29K COH

Carol Mumpower (R) $3K raised, $1K COH, $3K debt

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

District OH-01

Incumbent Steve Chabot (R)

2006 opponent John Cranley

Margin and notes 52-48. Chabot, the incumbent, raised $3 million to Cranley’s $2 million

Current situation

Steven Dreihaus (D) $695K raised, $567K COH

Steve Chabot (R) $1.3 million raised, $1.1 million COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District OH-02

Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R)

2006 opponent Victoria Wulsin (D)

Margin and notes 50-49. Schmidt, the incumbent, raised $2 million to Wulsin’s $1 million

Current situation

Victoria Wulsin (D) $771K raised, $211K COH, $21K debt

Jean Schmidt (R) $566K raised, $177K COH, $277K debt

Assessment To be outraising the incumbent is good.

Polls: Mid March – Schmidt 51 Wulsin 33

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District OH-15

Incumbent Deborah Pryce (R)

2006 opponent Mary Jo Kilroy

Margin and notes 1,055 votes of 220,000. Pryce, the incumbent, raised $4.7 millon, Kilroy raised $2.7 million

Current situation Pryce is retiring.

Mary Jo Kilroy (D) $1.2 million raised, $944K COH, $62K debt

Steve Stivers (R) $789K COH, $600K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Tossup

On the DCCC list

District PA-04

Incumbent Jason Altmire (D)

2006 opponent Melissa Hart

Margin and notes 52-48. Altmire raised $1.1 million to oust Hart, who raised $2.2 million

Current situation

Jason Altmire (D) $1.6 million raised, $1.3 million COH, $1K debt

Melissa Hart (R) $529K raised, $323K COH

Assessment If Hart can’t win, as the incumbent, with a fundraising edge, can she win as a challenger with a big deficit?

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District PA-06

Incumbent Jim Gerlach (R)

2006 opponent Lois Murphy

Margin and notes 51-49. Murphy (who also ran in 2004) raised $4 million to Gerlach’s $3.5 million

Current situation

Bob Roggio (D) $205K raised, $168K COH, $60K debt

Jim Gerlach (R) $1.5 million raised, $715K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District PA-08

Incumbent Patrick Murphy (D)

2006 opponent Mike Fitzpatrick

Margin and notes 1,518 votes of 250,000. Murphy raised $2.4 million to oust Fitzpatrick, who raised $3.2 million

Current situation

Patrick Murphy (D) $2.2 million raised, $1.7 million COH, $1K debt

Thomas Manion (R) $422K raised, $417K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District PA-10

Incumbent Christopher Carney (D)

2006 opponent Don Sherwood

Margin and notes 53-47. Carney raised $1.5 million to oust Sherwood, who raised $2.3 million

Current situation

Christopher Carney (D) $1.3 million raised, $967K COH

Chris Hackett (R) $931K raised, $175K COH, $490K debt

Dan Meuser (R) $1.5 million raised, $70K COH, $925K debt

Assessment

Polls: December – Carney 53 Meuser 23

Carney 55 Hackett 21

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District TX-23

Incumbent Ciro Rodriguez (D)

2006 opponent Henry Bonilla

Margin and notes 54-46 in special runoff. Only 70,000 votes. Rodriguez raised $1 million to oust Bonilla who raised $3.8 million.

Current situation No Republican opponent

Assessment Free ride

SSP rating: Likely D

On the DCCC list

District VT-AL

Incumbent Peter Welch (D)

2006 opponent Martha Rainville

Margin and notes 53-45. This seat was open after Bernie Sanders got elected to the Senate

Current situation No declared Republicans

Assessment So far, a free ride. VT’s filing doesn’t close until July 22 though. Welch has $828K COH

SSP rating: Not rated (very likely D)

District VA-02

Incumbent Thelma Drake (R)

2006 opponent Phil Kellam (D)

Margin and notes 51-48. Drake, the incumbent, raised $2.3 million to hold off Kellam, who raised $1.7 million

Current situation

Glenn Nye (D) $253K raised, $223K COH

Thelma Drake (R) $1.0 million raised, $594K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

District WA-08

Incumbent Dave Reichert (R)

2006 opponent Darcy Burner

Margin and notes 51-49. Reichert, the incumbent, and Burner each raised $3 million

Current situation

Darcy Burner (D) $1.4 million raised, $922K COH, $24K debt

Dave Reichert (R) $1.4 million raised, $698K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean R

On the DCCC list

District WI-08

Incumbent Steve Kagen (D)

2006 opponent John Gard

Margin and notes 51-49. This seat was open. Kagen raised $3.2 million ot Gard’s $2.8 million

Current situation

Steve Kagen (D) $1.1 million raised, $760K raised, $469K debt

John Gard (R) $555K raised, $428K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Lean D

On the DCCC list

District WY-AL

Incumbent Barbara Cubin (R)

2006 opponent Gary Trauner

Margin and notes 1,012 votes of 200,000. The Libertarian got 7,481.

Current situation Cubin is retiring (what a shame!)

Gary Trauner (D) $648K raised, $550K COH, $500 debt

Kenn Gilchrest (R) no funding info

Mark Gordon (R) $412K raised, $86K COH

Cynthia Lummis (R) $171K raised, $141K COH

Swede Nelson (R) no funding info

Dan Zwonitzer (R) $9K raised, $4K COH

Assessment

SSP rating: Likely R

On the DCCC list

PA-05: McCracken for Congress — Progress Report — 4/16/08

6 Counties in 1 Week:

Monday — Tioga County: I started out the week with a day long visit to Tioga County with the day’s agenda coordinated by Emily Rizzo. Emily took me around to several communities in Tioga County including Wellsboro, which included a visit to the Tioga County Courthouse to meet the elected officials, and to Mansfield where we stopped to meet with the staff at the Obama headquarters. I found Tioga County to be one of the most scenic counties, not only in the 5th district, but in the entire state.

The day ended with a candidate forum that was attended by 10 of the 12 candidates (the 2 missing candidates had people stand in for them) for the 5th district seat. For the first time at one of these multi-candidate events, I drew the 12th position so I had to sit and wait as every other candidate did their 10 minute presentations. Here is what the Elmira Star Gazette wrote about my presentation:

“After sitting silent for two hours, Democrat Mark McCracken, a Clearfield County commissioner, finally got his turn to speak. He said the nation’s $9.4 trillion debt was tragic and that his priority would be getting the federal budget back in order. “We’re in a deeper hole than we have ever been in before,” he said. “This is a threat to our national security. Foreign interests could pull the rug out from under us at any time.”

“Congress also needs to address energy costs and supplies…We missed a wake-up call in the ’70s,” he said. “We really need to get an energy plan in place. We need to be looking at alternate energy sources. This is our second wake-up call. We’d better take it.”

Tuesday — Clarion County: Tuesday evening, Kelly and I made the trip to Clarion County for the Spring Democratic Banquet. Like Democrats all over the region, the folks in Clarion are excited about our party’s prospects for 2008.

Wednesday — Elk and Mifflin Counties: Wednesday morning brought a trip to St.Marys for a candidate forum in front of members of the Allegheny Hardwoods Utilization Group AHUG. The members of AHUG quizzed 11 of the 12 candidates on where we stood in regards to the lumber and timber business that is so important to the economy in north central Pennsylvania.

Wednesday evening brought a trip to Lewistown to appear at a candidate forum sponsored by the Mifflin County Farm Bureau. It was decided that the 3 Democratic candidates would have our own portion of the forum since the Republican candidates would be arriving later due to party event also being held in Lewistown.

Thursday — Clearfield County: The DuBois Democratic Committee sponsored a forum for the 3 Democratic candidates at the Penn State DuBois Campus. PCN was on hand to record the forum which they will run several times over the next few days.

I have to congratulate the people who put the event together. It was a unique format which included the standard Q & A, followed by a 1 on 1 session with a moderator, then questions from the audience and ended with 5 minute closing statements from each candidate. The format was different from any event we’ve participated in thus far and was a good challenge for me personally and I think for the other 2 candidates as well.

Friday — Centre County: Friday evening Kelly and I traveled to the Tussey Mountain Lodge to attend the Centre County Democrats Spring Banquet. This event turned into a celebration of the extraordinary gains in voter registration the Democratic party has made in central Pennsylvania. Centre County led the way with the excitement for Sen. Obama’s candidacy leading to a huge wave of young people registering Democratic. But, the excitement doesn’t end in Centre County as my home county of Clearfield and Rick Vilello’s home county of Clinton also turned “BLUE”! Hmmm, with everything going the Democratic way, maybe a Democrat can win the 5th district after all.

Saturday — Clearfield County: I spent the day working on behalf of the Obama campaign doing some door to door canvassing at the invitation of Jody Grumblatt. Jody has been putting her heart and soul into campaigning on behalf of Sen. Obama. She was even out on the Clearfield Courthouse Plaza on a cold day a few weeks back registering voters.

Sunday — Clearfield County: Kelly, Amanda and I went to the DuBois Democratic Committee spaghetti dinner. Many campaigns were on hand for this well attended annual event.

Auditor General Jack Wagner was the main speaker with Jay Paterno on hand to speak for the Obama campaign. Rick Vilello and I each spoke to the crowd to make our case for votes on April 22nd.

Maybe the Wrong McCracken in on the Ballot: Kelly had a very lucky week. She won 4 tickets to a Pirate baseball game at the Clarion County Dinner and really cleaned up at the spaghetti dinner in DuBois winning 2 gift baskets.

Amanda was really excited with the one gift basket that had a porcelain doll that she really liked.

We’re heading into the last full week of the primary campaign and there are a lot of miles left to travel. Please be sure to remind your family and friends to vote on April 22nd. Of course, a mention to vote for the 5th district candidate listed in the #1 position on the ballot would be appreciated.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

PA-05: McCracken for Congress – Progress Report – Sen. Durbin in Clearfield!

IF IT’S TUESDAY, THIS MUST BE BELLEFONTE:

The headline says it all as it was a very busy and sometimes hectic week. I started out the week Sunday and Monday in Harrisburg where I was attending the County Commissioners Association of Pennsylvania spring conference. I really wish I could have been in State College to see Senator Barack Obama’s historic visit to Penn State but, I had already scheduled to attend the CCAP conference several weeks ago. I’ve heard from people who attended and they were all still buzzing late in the week from the rally.

I left Harrisburg Monday afternoon to attend the Lycoming County Democratic Dinner in Williamsport on Monday evening. Lycoming County Chair Jessie Bloom put together a fantastic event that was so well attended they filled up 2 rooms with Democrats who are excited about 2008.

Lycoming County is split between the 5th and the 10th congressional districts. As I was working the rooms, I shook hands with one gentleman who apologized and said “sorry, you just wasted a handshake, I’m from the 10th district”. I countered back to him, “No, it wasn’t wasted, if I met a Democrat who is going to be working to get Democrats elected in 2008 that was good enough for me”. All the candidates in attendance got the chance to speak and Auditor General Jack Wagner was the keynote speaker for the evening.

Tuesday brought 2 events in Centre County with an afternoon forum for the 5th District Democratic candidates at the Foxdale Retirement Community in State College. Art Goldschmidt moderated the event and the residents asked many important questions.

Then it was on to Bellefonte for a candidate’s forum with the 3 Democratic candidates taking center stage from 6:30 to 7:30 with the Republicans getting their chance from 8:00 to 9:30.

Wednesday brought an early morning trip to Clarion for legislative breakfast sponsored by the Clarion Chamber of Commerce. This event had 16 candidates, 5 for the PA House seat being vacated by Rep. Fred McIllhatten and 11 of the 12 candidates for the 5th District seat. Wednesday evening had us back in Centre County for the League of Women Voters debate. Again, the Democratic candidates went first from 7:00 to 8:00 with the Republican candidates following. Is it wrong to think the Republican candidates had viewers tuning out in favor of American Idol both nights?

Also on Wednesday, we released the news that both the IBEW Local #5 and the Ironworkers Local #772 have endorsed my candidacy. It is important to me that we get endorsements from organizations that represent the hard working people of the 5th Congressional District.

You can read the endorsement letters here!

Thursday we had the Jefferson County Democratic spring banquet in Reynoldsville followed by a candidate forum for the Democratic candidates at the IBEW building in Clearfield.

Friday brought an important visitor to Clearfield County as US Senator Richard Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader (also known as the Majority Whip), stopped in Clearfield and DuBois to support the Obama for President campaign. It really is an exciting time for Democrats in central Pennsylvania as we are getting real attention from the presidential campaigns for the first time in my lifetime.

The longest day of the week was Saturday. I was up a 5:15 AM to drive to Warren for a Democratic breakfast at 9:00 AM. I found my theme that communities in the 5th district share many similarities took a new twist on Saturday morning. The Clearfield County Courthouse sets at the corner of Second and Market streets and, believe it or not, the building where the Warren County breakfast was held was on the corner of Second and Market streets. I pointed this coincidence out and the crowd got a chuckle from my observation. I shared the microphone with 3 of the candidates running for the 3rd congressional district along with fellow 5th district candidate Rick Vilello. We also heard from Jeff Eggleston for the Obama campaign and Congressman Marion Berry for the Clinton campaign.

Then it was on to Clarion for a League of Women Voters debate at Clarion University at 2 PM. Rick Vilello and I shared the stage with 7 of the 9 Republican candidates for a joint debate. Rick and I did the Democratic party proud as we addressed the issues important to the hard working people of the district. The event concluded with a brief verbal skirmish between 2 of the Republican candidates during the closing statements. I was very pleased when the Clarion County Democratic Chairman and several people in the audience came up and congratulated both of the Democratic candidates for our performances.

Saturday ended in Ridgway with the Elk County Democratic Spring Banquet. Kelly joined me in Ridgway to hear 2 keynote speakers, Congressman Marion Berry representing the Clinton campaign and Jay Paterno representing the Obama campaign. And, I can’t forget to mention that Victor Ordonez represented the campaign in Mifflin County for their spring dinner on Saturday evening. A big thank you to Victor for making the trip to Lewistown. It would have been impossible to do the debate in Clarion and also make it to Lewistown.

It was a long day to end a long week but I feel our campaign made great progress over the last 7 days. The only downside to this is the reality that campaigning in such a large district is taking a toll on the family life. Kelly and I knew what we were getting into back in January but it is difficult now that we are in the middle of the campaign. April 22nd is coming fast and it will be nice once the outcome is known. Either we will be campaigning through November or life will settle back down.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

Responses to requests from yesterday

Continuing from yesterday’s diary here , I’m going to try to meet some of the requests

People were interested in the various measures, and how they related. Here is what’s known as a scatterplot matrix of the various measures:

Each little panel is a scatterplot, consisting of the variable listed in the row, and the column. All are highly correlated, all show that Republicans are lousy. But they are different in interesting ways: The PP Chips are down scale shows a lot of variation within the Democratic part, and little within the Republican. Let’s take a closer look:

that’s a boxplot of the chips are down scores, by party, and my guess was right: There’s a lot of spread among the Democrats. Fortunately, there are no outliers at the top – that means that a lot of Democrats get 100 on this measure. But unfortunately, quite a few get fairly low scores: A quarter or so get under about 70, and more than 10 get under 50. (Note, though, that the lowest Democratic score is about where the highest Republican score is).

So, that PPCAD might be a good measure to use. Let’s see how it relates to Cook PVI, among Democrats:

Again, there’s a ceiling effect: You can’t have a PPCAD score over 100. But, given that, I’ve identified some of the best and worst.

Other people were interested in Republicans who were too conservative for their districts. Here, we want a measure that shows good spread among the Republicans. Two stand out: ADA rating and NJ rating. Since we’ve used NJ rating before, let’s do it again. Among Republicans, region made very little difference, so using just PVI is okay.

Here are the 17 Republicans who are 15 or more points more conservative than the model predicts

Here are the ones who are more than 12.5 points too conservative

District Actual.PVI Rep. NJ.Comp.2007 10 AZ02 -9.3076 R (Franks) 6.7 11 AZ03 -6.5867 R (Shadegg) 6.7 44 CA24 -5.3747 R (Gallegly) 14.0 77 CO04 -8.8633 R (Musgrave) 11.0 93 FL07 -4.8761 R (Mica) 8.3 98 FL12 -6.0349 R (Putnam) 12.3 110 FL24 -3.8316 R (Feeney) 12.0 161 IA05 -8.9516 R (King) 8.8 215 MN02 -3.3538 R (Kline) 9.3 219 MN06 -5.6477 R (Bachmann) 10.8 227 MO02 -9.4356 R (Akin) 10.0 248 NJ05 -5.0601 R (Garrett) 14.7 303 OH01 -1.2364 R (Chabot) 17.5 310 OH08 -13.0170 R (Boehner) 6.7 353 SC02 -9.4804 R (Wilson) 9.3 365 TN07 -12.3217 R (Blackburn) 8.0

This is fun! I get to do the analysis, and didn’t have to enter the data

Good Democrats, Better Democrats

(Phenomenal work. The graphs and analysis below the fold are a must-read. – promoted by James L.)

Crisitunity compiled a whole lot of data, and wrote a diary about the PVI-Voting Pattern Index. It’s a great piece. But I thought some graphics would be nice. And some more statistics. First, go read that diary. When you get back, I’ll be below the fold.

First, let’s look at all 435 representatives. I’ve plotted each rep’s Progressive Punch score against their district’s Cook PVI.

Repubs in red, Dems in blue

the first point is clear: ALL Democrats are more progressive than ALL Republicans. We are ALWAYS better. All the talk about how bad the blue dogs are is….well, wrong. Democrats are better than Republicans. Period.

Next, look at the lines that divide the plot into boxes. Here, the point is that, above about Cook PVI of D + 8, every Democrat gets a good PP score. Every Democrat who got a PP score under 89 came from a district with a Cook score of under D+8. If we want better Democrats, we need better voters. Move the population, the reps will follow.

A somewhat different picture comes from using National Journal’s ratings.

There are actually some Democrats who are less liberal than the most liberal Republicans, and vice versa. They’re between the two vertical lines in the plot; there are 12 such districts:

CT-04 R Shays

DE-AL R Castle

GA-12 D Barrow

IL-10 R Kirk

IN-02 D Donnelly

IN-08 D Ellsworth

LA-03 D Melancon

MD-01 R Gilchrest

MS-04 D Taylor

NJ-04 R Smith

OK-02 D Boren

TX-22 D Lampson

7 Democrats out of 234 are less liberal than the most liberal Republican.

So, which should we use? If we went just by better statistical properties, we’d pick the National Journal rankings. But substance should always trump method. If we look at the graph below, we can see the difference in the two ratings: There are no PP scores between about 40 and 60. Is this reasonable? Well, for our purposes, I don’t think it is. If our aim is particularly to identify the most conservative Democrats and the least conservative Republicans, we want a measure that is sensitive exactly in that middle region. So, from here, we’ll use NJ ratings

Now, let’s just look at the Democrats

Here, the straight line is not a bad fit.

I’ve identified some of the best and worst, compared to their district’s PVI numbers

What else can we do? Well, region is always regarded as important. The census bureau divides the nation into 9 regions. I’m not saying it’s the greatest division (I may do a diary sometime on other ways to make regions) but it’s not horrible, and it’s standard, if only because the Census says so. here is one map of the regions.

If we attempt to fit a linear model for all 435 districts to NJ numbers from region, we get this:

Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 48.9848 3.1517 15.543 < 2e-16 *** regionE. Sou Cent - 11.8008 6.0130 - 1.963 0.05037 . regionMid Atl 12.9774 4.5475 2.854 0.00454 ** regionMountain - 11.4815 5.6379 - 2.037 0.04234 * regionNew Eng 31.0437 6.4149 4.839 1.84e-06 *** regionPacific 10.1898 4.4405 2.295 0.02225 * regionSouth Atl - 4.5797 4.2823 - 1.069 0.28549 regionW. North Cen - 0.5241 5.7746 - 0.091 0.92772 regionW. Sou Cen - 13.3131 4.9178 - 2.707 0.00707 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

One thing this tells us is the average NJ score from each region. Across all regions, it’s 48.98 (that’s the intercept). For East South Central it’s 48.98 – 11.80 = 37.18; for the mid Atlantic, it’s 48.98 + 12.98 = 61.96; and so on. The most liberal region (no surprise) is New England, where the average representative gets a 48.98 + 31.04 = 80.02; it would be even higher, except for Shays (CT-04), who is the only Republican in the region, and who got a 47.7.

I’m a little surprised that Mountain is just as conservative as East South Central.

Another interesting thing is that region, by itself, only accounts for about 17% of the variance in NJ score.

But what if we combine region and Cook PVI? Do we do better at predicting NJ scores? We sure do. That model accounts for 70% of the variance in NJ scores. And, if we add party to the model? That model accounts for 89% of the variation in PP scores…. which is pretty amazing.

Here is a summary of that model

Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 65.21028 1.33998 48.665 < 2e-16 *** regionE. Sou Cent - 3.79987 2.20085 - 1.727 0.085000 . regionMid Atl 1.40556 1.65805 0.848 0.397087 regionMountain - 1.35274 2.05635 - 0.658 0.511012 regionNew Eng 8.95746 2.35363 3.806 0.000163 *** regionPacific 2.52476 1.60749 1.571 0.117041 regionSouth Atl - 0.68440 1.55044 - 0.441 0.659138 regionW. North Cen - 0.29151 2.10166 - 0.139 0.889753 regionW. Sou Cen - 3.68887 1.81898 - 2.028 0.043206 * repdata$Actual.PVI 0.74017 0.04772 15.512 < 2e-16 *** partyR - 34.16677 1.25862 - 27.146 < 2e-16 ***

what’s interesting here is that, after accounting for party and Cook PVI, region doesn’t make much difference. The region that’s the most different is New England, and that is 8.96 points more liberal on average, than would be predicted from just party and Cook PVI. But, other than New England, all the regions are just about where the model would predict.

Next is a graph of the predicted values from that model, and the actual NJ ratings

Now, we want to look at points that are far from that line; but it’s easier for people to judge distance from a horizontal line than a diagonal one. That leads to the Tukey Mean Difference plot. On the X-axis, we have the average of what was on the X and Y axes before: That is, the predicted value and the actual value. On the y axis, we now have the difference between them.

I’ve identified four of the best and worst districts.

But if we want to identify good and bad Democrats, we should go back to looking at just Democrats.

A model with region and CookPVI looks like this

Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 63.3242 1.6443 38.512 < 2e-16 *** democrats$Actual.PVI 0.7410 0.0502 14.762 < 2e-16 *** region[party == "D"]E. Sou Cent - 5.2676 3.1070 - 1.695 0.091432 . region[party == "D"]Mid Atl 1.8968 2.0786 0.913 0.362482 region[party == "D"]Mountain 1.8168 3.0926 0.587 0.557487 region[party == "D"]New Eng 10.6171 2.5004 4.246 3.22e-05 *** region[party == "D"]Pacific 7.5039 2.0499 3.661 0.000316 *** region[party == "D"]South Atl 1.5945 2.1492 0.742 0.458941 region[party == "D"]W. North Cen 3.8981 2.7225 1.432 0.153630 region[party == "D"]W. Sou Cen - 3.9359 2.5680 - 1.533 0.126810 --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 8.772 on 218 degrees of freedom (6 observations deleted due to missingness) Multiple R-Squared: 0.6116, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5956

A couple interesting things here. The average Democrat has a NJ score of 63. Cook PVI score is clearly important: For each point increase in Cook PVI, the predicted NJ score goes up by .74 points. And New England and the Pacific region are more liberal than the model predicts.

Now, here’s the TMD plot for this model

I’ve identified the best and worst. Here are their names and districts:

Best:

NY22 Maurice Hinchey – A strong liberal from a district that is D + 6

WI02 Tammy Baldwin – This district is D + 13, but her NJ score is 95

NC04 David Price – NJ score of 91, district is D+6

NC12 Melvin Watt – The district is D +11, NJ score is 93

NJ12 Rush Holt – D + 8, NJ score of 90

notice that the most liberal Democrats, from the most liberal districts, can’t appear here, because the scale simply doesn’t go that high

Worst

GA12 John Barrow. D +2, NJ = 46

NY16 Jose Serrano D +43, NJ = 78…this is the most Democratic district in the USA

MA08 Michael Capuano D +33, NJ = 83.5

IL03 Daniel Lipinski D +10, NJ = 55

NY15 Charles Rangel D +43, NJ = 80, the second most Democratic district

PA-05: McCRACKEN RECEIVES MAJOR LABOR ENDORSEMENTS

Contact: Victor M. Ordonez

Email: vmo1701@gmail.com

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

McCRACKEN RECEIVES MAJOR LABOR ENDORSEMENTS

Electrical Workers” and Iron Workers” Union Endorses McCracken Campaign

Mark B. McCracken, Democratic candidate for United States House of Representatives in the 5th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is proud to announce that he has received the endorsements from the 2,760 plus members of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers (IBEW) Local Union #5 and the 263 member International Association of Bridge, Structural, Ornamental & Reinforcing Iron Workers Local Union #772.

In receiving the endorsement of these important labor organizations, Mr. McCracken stated “I am honored to have my candidacy endorsed by two organizations that represent the working people of Pennsylvania. I know firsthand the struggles our working class face and I plan on being a strong voice in Washington for the people who work hard everyday, but lack the representation at the federal level they deserve.”

During McCracken”s tenure as a Clearfield County Commissioner, he has worked to establish a working relationship with representatives of organized labor within Clearfield County to keep them advised on economic development projects. In endorsing McCracken”s candidacy, Michael Dunleavy, Business Manager for IBEW Local #5 wrote “I am convinced that your viewpoints and stance on issues that concern not only organized labor, but the well-being of all working Pennsylvanians are sound. Your inclusion of labor as part of the process of economic development and job creation is commendable. To us, your background and professional experience makes your candidacy a sound investment.”

These labor endorsements offer a significant boost to the candidacy of Mark B. McCracken to be the next congressman for the 5th congressional district. The endorsements by the IBEW and the Iron Workers offer positive proof of the pro-active and involved leader that Mark B. McCracken is as a county commissioner which is the same effort he will put forth as a member of Congress.

###

If you”d like more information about this topic, or to schedule an interview with Mr. Mark B. McCracken, please email either mkamccracken@verizon.net or the Media & Policy Advisor at vmo1701@gmail.com.

————————————————————————————————–

You can read the endorsement letters here!

PA-05: McCracken for Congress Update – Barack Obama to PSU

It’s been a very busy week for the campaign with many highlights:

Monday March 24: I attended the Voices of Central PA dinner in State College. It was a very nice event and I got the chance to speak with the truly progressive minded people who support Voices. The questions were tough but fair and I really enjoyed the Indian food on the buffet at the India Pavilion restaurant where the event was held. The food was a little on the spicy side but was very good.

Tuesday March 25: I spent the late afternoon and evening getting signs out to people. You always get the chance to speak with your supporters while delivering signs and the feedback was good. I did get home in time to catch American Idol with Kelly and Amanda. Not as important as the Obama / Clinton race but Kelly, Amanda and I seem to be pulling for David Cook and Brooke White.

Wednesday March 26: All 12 candidates were on hand for the candidate forum sponsored by the DuBois Chamber of Commerce. Getting the chance to hear the other 11 candidates, I feel very confident of the message our campaign is spreading. We recognize the problems of 2008 and we are offering solutions for 2008 and beyond.

Sadly, many of the other candidates keep offering solutions from the 1980’s. Perhaps most troublesome from several of the candidates are calls for the return to and expansion of the use of fossil fuels. I will continue to stress throughout this campaign as long as I am part of it that we MUST invest in cleaner, domestically produced alternative fuels. It will help our economy and our national security.

Thursday March 27: First, I was interviewed on C-Net, the local cable channel in State College. The interview will run in the State College cable market several times before the April 22nd election. Then, at the invite of Raymond Snyder, I traveled to Lewistown for the appearance of former President Bill Clinton. Prior to the public being admitted to the Lewistown High School gymnasium, I had the opportunity to walk the line waiting to get into the event. I shook hands with approximately 1,500 people who were waiting to get in. Perhaps the most interesting story was about halfway through the line I met a lady and her young son. He asked for my autograph, the first time this ever happened. As I was signing, I saw the young boy reach over and tug his mothers coat and ask “Is that President Clinton?”.

We did have to wait quite awhile in the gym as President Clinton was behind schedule. When he did arrive after 6:30 he didn’t disappoint. He gave a rousing speech that lasted approximately 50 minutes and he actually made mention of ethanol as a viable alternative fuel source and even said that ethanol from cellulose material is the way to go in the future. Then, as he left the stage, he worked his way around the barrier between the stage and the crowd and I was able to shake his hand. I was 3 rows back but I reached up over the 2 rows ahead of me and got the handshake.

Friday March 28: I attended the opening of the Obama campaign office in DuBois. I am so encouraged that a presidential campaign has opened an office in Clearfield County. This is proof that rural Pennsylvania is going to have our say in this election. I met several people at the opening and they are truly committed to making a difference in 2008.

Saturday March 29: I hosted a visit to the Clearfield area by John Cordisco candidate for State Treasurer. I first met John last August at Rep. Bud George’s picnic and I was very impressed with him. One thing that made me interested in him was that he also started his political career by serving on a school board. I invited John and his staff person to join me at Denny’s Pub, famous as the home of the biggest hamburger in the world.

He had a nice interview with Jane Elling from our local newspaper and then we all enjoyed one of Denny’s famous burgers. Not the big one, just one of the regular sized burgers available on the menu. John was very interested in the alternative fuels industry that we’ve brought to Clearfield County and north central Pennsylvania. We also talked about state funding and investment issues and his vision to be an active and involved state treasurer. He is a great candidate and I feel he will make an excellent treasurer for Pennsylvania.

Sunday March 30: Although I was not able to personally attend due to a Commissioners’ Conference, our campaign attended the Obama Rally for Change Event on the campus of Pennsylvania State University. We had a chance to talk with a lot of young eager minds ready for change in Washington. Although the gates opened at 11:30am, it was brought to our attention that students and interested citizens started lining up at 5:30am and even earlier. This is the kind of dedication we need from our young people and from the citizens of the 5th District. Although the lines were long and the wind brisk, the message of change kept the spectators lively.

Obama’s message of change and a new direction is precisely what the 5th District is looking for. He pointed out that it is time to move beyond our differences and come together to forge a better future for all Americans. He addressed the massive amounts of money we send overseas to fight this war and the rising costs of gas. His solutions, and ours, is to invest in alternative fuel sources like ethanol. We are proud to join Barack Obama in this fight.

In our seating location, we were honored to meet up with the great candidate for the 171st State House seat Tim Wilson. Many state officials were also there including Senator Casey and State Rep. Dan Surra. We thanked them for the warm welcome. Luckily for us, we had a great seating location! We were also informed that this rally was the largest in the history of Penn State and we were honored to attend.

It’s been a busy week and every day between now and April 22nd has something on the schedule. Please keep spreading the word about the campaign and let us know what you are hearing.

Also, we expect to release some important campaign news on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Mark B. McCracken

Your Candidate for Congress

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This diary is cross-posted at McCracken’s campaign blog, PA’s Blue Fifth

Mark McCracken for Congress

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