Tag: Congress

(crossposted to Dkos)

President Kennedy once invoked the old axiom that “a raising tide lifts all boats.”

He might have been thinking about the fortunes of Democrats in the State of Ohio. What an INCREDIBLE change since 2004, when Ohio, thanks in large part to “values voters” who turned out to support an idiotic Hate Amendment to the state Constitution, thereby returning the Shrub to the White House by 218,000 votes.

First came 2006: Sherrod Brown goes to the Senate and Ted Strickland leads a near sweep of statewide offices (notable exception: the state Supremes, now all neo-con.) But we only picked up one US House seat, by Zach Space, in OH-18.The GOP thinks that they can take Zach out. FAT CHANCE! Zach raised $274519.00 with $591905.47 Cash on Hand. It’s a VERY tough District but Zach can get the job done.

So let’s review how things are going heading into the US House elections. It’s pretty amazing. There are FOUR open seats, three by retirement, and one death. That’s out of a total of 18 Districts in the state.

And all of the open seats had been held by Republicans.

And unfortunately for the GOP, in OH-02, Mean Jean Schmidt DIDN’T decide to retire!

Folks,in the last several election cycles, it was not uncommon for Democratic Congressional challengers to raise so little money that they didn’t even have to file ANY reports (let alone quarterly.) Let’s take a gander at today’s FEC filings:(my how things have changed!!!!)

First things first, Robin Weirauch is already up and running for the OH-05 special election following the death of Paul Gillmor. She had her crew have been out working HARD. She has been endorsed by most of the county Democratic Party organizations and with the withdrawal of her only significant primary challenger, is overwhelmingly the presumptive nominee. (Because it’s a special election, the FEC reporting schedule is a little different.)

In OH-01, State House Minority leader Steve Dreihaus is taking on Rep Steve Chabot. Driehaus raised $120612.31 with $251011.77 CoH. Steve is a veteran campaigner who is going to run an excellent campaign.

In OH-07, GOP Rep. Dave Hobson has announced his retirement and the DCCC and ODP are working to recruit a top level candidate for the District.It’s very tough District but as an open seat, everything changes. Stay tuned!

In OH-14, former appellate Judge Bill O’Neill has set fundraising records for a Democrat in the District.His totals for his first quarter of fundraising:$102872.00 with $77976.74 on hand.

In OH-15, where Rep. Deb Pryce has decided not to run again, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Killroy raised $342423.64 this quarter, with $383659.05 CoH. So far, the GOP has gotten nothing but rejections for their attempts to find SOMEBODY to run for this seat, following Pryce’s decision not to run again.

In OH-16, where Ralph Regula FINALLY made his decision to retire public,  Air Force Major and State Senator John Boccieri was able to raise $118857.83 with $224847.24 CoH.

Once again, OHIO is clearly going to be the compelling story of this election cycle.

I’ve heard it said that the ideal political candidate is the individual who neither wants nor needs to hold public office. Instead, the ideal candidate is the individual who serves simply because he or she feels a civic and moral responsibility to do so.

This individual is Dennis Shulman, a Democrat running for New Jersey’s fifth congressional district seat in the United States House of Representatives.

So, who exactly is this ideal candidate? As a longtime student in Dennis’s classes and congregant at his services, I believe I’m in a unique position to answer this question.

Let me begin with some background. First, Dennis is a Harvard-educated, internationally recognized clinical psychologist and psychoanalyst. Second, Dennis is a revered and respected ordained rabbi in his New Jersey community. And, to put these facts in proper perspective, Dennis has been blind since childhood.

But this background information, as remarkable as it may be, fails to capture who this man really is. It does not convey Dennis’s fundamental decency, honesty, and integrity. It does not communicate the depth of his wisdom, compassion, and commitment. And it does not speak to the profoundly positive impact Dennis has had on my life, and upon the lives of countless others. Ultimately, mere biographical data is not enough-one must know Dennis to grasp what my words cannot express. 

While I’m only 30-years-old, I’ve lived and experienced enough to know with absolute certainty that human beings like Dennis Shulman are rare in this cynical and broken world of ours.

So, you might be wondering, why on earth would such a good man want to run for congress?

The answer is simple: His conscience dictates it. As a proud American who, in his words, feels “heartbroken and troubled by our recent direction as a nation,” Dennis feels obligated to take action. While writing checks, signing petitions, and attending political rallies is both important and necessary, Dennis feels compelled to do more. Certain in his belief that we as a nation can and must do better, Dennis is choosing to run for the United States House of Representatives. 

As someone who feels utterly disheartened by the corruption, cronyism, cynicism, and lies that are currently debasing and destroying our democracy, I have been waiting and searching, often in desperation, to find a politician that I can believe in and support without reservation. For me, Dennis Shulman is this candidate.

So, if you too are yearning for a candidate that you don’t have to support with one hand on the lever and one hand holding your nose, I tell you that Dennis Shulman is your man.

But don’t take my word for it.

Check Dennis out for yourself and read what others are saying about his unorthodox and inspiring exploratory campaign at Shulman for Congress

First of all, I apologize for the length of this diary.  I started researching this Congressional District and ran into a lot of information, and have apparently tried to include it all here ?

Yahoo News – Fri Sep 14, 8:48 PM ET – Elections set to fill seat of Ohio rep.

http://news.yahoo.co…

COLUMBUS, Ohio – “Gov. Ted Strickland on Friday set Nov. 6 and Dec. 11 as the dates for special primary and general elections to pick a successor to U.S. Rep. Paul Gillmor, a Republican who died earlier this month.

Gillmor died in an apparent fall down the stairs at his suburban Washington apartment.

The 5th District covers all or parts of 16 northwest Ohio counties, stretching from suburban Toledo to northern Ashland County.

The primary on Nov. 6 coincides with this year’s general election. The Dec. 11 election will determine the winner, who would face election again in November 2008 to retain the seat.

So far, only two candidates have announced that they will be in the race.

State Rep. Bob Latta, who lost to Gillmor in a 1988 Republican primary by 27 votes, said he will run for the seat. Latta’s father, Republican Rep. Delbert Latta, represented the district from 1959 to 1989.

Democrat Robin Weirauch, who works in economic and community research at Bowling Green State University, also will make another bid for the seat. She lost to Gillmor in 2004 and 2006. No Democrat has held the seat since the 1930s.”

The Ohio Daily Blog notes that more candidates may join in on the Republican and Democratic side:
http://www.ohiodaily…

From everything I have read online it looks like this is a strongly Republican seat and Republicans think they have the district in the bag:

http://rothenbergpol…
“The 5th District gave President Bush over 60% in the 2004 election, and, though Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown carried the district in 2006, Republicans start with a significant advantage.”

and from the wingnut Human Events: “Will it Be ‘Rep. Gillmor II’ Or ‘Rep. Latta II’?”
http://www.humaneven… 

Despite the Republicans’ confidence in holding onto this district, I think the Democratic Party should make a valiant effort to be competitive here in the upcoming special election.  Several reasons come to mind re. why we should make an effort here and I will outline these reasons below.  Before going there, however, I wanted to give a few basic stats re. the district:

This district voted 61.0% for Bush and 38.5% for Kerry in 2004 (see map for break-down by county).  In 2000 it was Bush 57.5%, Gore 39.2%.  However, the 2000 numbers apply to the old district boundaries, and cannot be compared directly to the 2004 numbers.  Ohio Republicans made the district more Republican in redistricting, by approx. 2.1 pts., by taking out all or parts of relatively more Democratic Ottawa, Erie and Lorain counties, while adding all or parts of more Republican Ashland, Crawford, Wyandot and Fulton counties.  In 1996, again under the old boundaries, Bill Clinton lost to Bob Dole here by only 2 pts. (44-42).

There are 16 counties wholly or partially in the current district.  The district can be divided geographically and politically into roughly two parts:

The eastern part includes Toledo suburbs and all areas east – including Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron, Crawford counties and parts of Lucas, Wyandot and Ashland counties. The 5 counties –Wood, Sandusky, Seneca, Huron and the Lucas part comprise 50.3% of the district’s population according to 2000 Census.  These are the most Democratic counties in the district (all 5 voted for Bill Clinton in 1996, and for Sherrod Brown in the 2006 U.S. Senate race — in both instances differently from the 11 other counties in the current district — which voted Republican).  The more recently added counties here (Crawford, Wyandot, Ashland) have 10.9% of district’s population.  This eastern area has also been the political base of long-term Rep. Gillmor and his politically active wife Karen Gillmor.  Both Paul and Karen Gillmor at one point also represented a State Senate district centered on Seneca and Sandusky counties. 

The western part of the district encompasses all or parts of Williams, Fulton, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam, Van Vert and Mercer counties and 38.7% of the district’s population.  This area is also relatively more Republican than the rest of the district.

Now, to proceed to why we should take a look at seriously contesting here:

1) District is indeed quite Republican but Democratic candidates have won here in the recent past.  Additionally, Democrats have won even more Republican House seats in the recent past:

Despite winning only 5 counties here in 2006, Sherrod Brown actually carried this district with approx. 51% of the vote (Brown came within one point of winning in 3 other counties in the district).  It is interesting to note that Brown lost five Congressional Districts in Ohio, including OH-2.  Ted Strickland did even better here in his gubernatorial bid, winning by a 10 point margin (53.5-43.5) against Blackwell.  Strickland carried all but 3 counties in the district.  (Incidentally, OH-2 was the only congressional district Strickland lost.)

In 2006 Democrats won 8 seats (including 2 takeovers) in districts which are more Republican (using Bush’s 2004 numbers) than OH-5:

GA-8  Bush 61.3% Marshall 50.6%
IN-8  Bush 61.5% Ellsworth 60.7%
MS-4  Bush 68.3% Taylor 79.9%
MO-4  Bush 64.2% Skelton 67.7%
ND-AL  Bush 62.9% Pomeroy 65.7%
TX-17  Bush 69.9% Edwards 58.1%
TX-22  Bush 64.4% Lampson 51.8%
UT-2  Bush 66.1% Matheson 59.0%

Due to special circumstances surrounding Lampson’s victory, it really cannot be compared to anything else.  Ellsworth, however, ran against a scandal-free incumbent and won with over 60% of the vote in a district Bush won with over 60%.  In addition, many other seats not included on the above list are very, very Republican, yet continue to elect Democrats to Congress.  For example, SD-AL voted 59.9% for Bush, yet Herseth won with 69.1% in 2006.

2) Democratic candidate in last election made an unexpectedly decent showing here (despite being highly outspent):

The last time this district elected a Democrat was Frank Kniffin in 1936.  Since the 1938 election, only Republican congressmen have been elected here (Cliff Clevenger – served 1939-1959; Delbert Latta 1959-1989; Paul Gillmor 1989-2007).  Nevertheless, the Democratic nominee in 2006, Robin Weirauch won 43.1% of the vote here to Gillmor’s 56.9%.  Her 43.1% was an improvement of 10.2% over her result in 2004 when she challenged Gillmor for the first time: http://www.buckeyest…

http://www.buckeyest…
Weirauch’s 43.1% in 2006 occurred despite the fact that she was vastly outspent (569K for Gillmor to 117K for Weirauch;  http://www.opensecre…),
was running against an entrenched incumbent, and the fact that the race was not at all targeted by the Democratic Party.  Her 43.1% was also the highest Democratic U.S. House percentage in the district since 1982.

Weirauch’s November 2006 percentage was also higher than the Democratic percentage in the following seats which received more attention: CO-4 (Paccione, D 42.8; Musgrave, R 45.9; Eidsness, Reform 11.3); MN-6 (Wetterling D, 42.1; Bachmann, R 50.1; Binkowski, Independence 7.8%); NE-1 (Moul, D 41.3; Fortenberry, R 58.8); OH-12 (Shamansky, D 41.9; Tiberi, R 58.1); VA-10 (Feder, D 41.0; Wolf, R 57.3; two others 1.7) and came close to other targeted seats (CA-50, Busby 43.4; FL-9, Busansky 44.1; KY-4, Lucas 43.4 to name a few).  Granted, not all of these seats were the “top tier” in 2006.  Ken Lucas certainly was from what I remember.  On the other hand, after having lost in a June 2006 special election, Francine Busby, was no longer at the top of the Democratic lists for November.  Also, as you can see, there were a few third party candidates in some of these races to complicate the picture.  Nevertheless, unknown Weirauch clearly did better than some of the Democrats in these first and second tier races — fellow Ohio candidate Shamansky (in a one-on-one race with Tiberi) stands out among them.

It should also be noted that OH-2 which voted 63.9% for Bush in 2004, came within 2 points of electing a Democratic congressperson both in the 2005 special – Paul Hackett 48.4% and in 2006 – Victoria Wulsin 49.3%.  In a theoretical universe, with all other things being even, if OH-2 was as Democratic as OH-5 (61.0% for Bush in 2004 – a difference of 2.9% less Republican than OH-2) then Hackett and Wulsin would have made it over the top.  Of course, we can’t compare apples and oranges here (and the unique issue of Jean Schmidt being such a divisive figure), but looking at just the sheer numbers, OH-5 may not be as hopeless as the Republicans would like us to believe.

3) District is now open seat and so anything can happen:

Open seats have a way of sometimes producing unexpected results.  The Paul Hackett race in OH-2 is a good example.  Although Hackett didn’t win, he came very close in that very Republican district.  Here’s two names mentioned above in discussing Democrats representing very Republican districts:  Stephanie Herseth (SD-AL) originally won in a special 2004 election to replace Republican Bill Janklow.  Gene Taylor succeeded a Republican in MS-4 via a special election in 1989 in a district that has not supported the Democratic presidential candidate since 1956.  Also in 1989, Jill Long (a relatively unknown university lecturer) won a previously Republican-held and politically very Republican seat in IN-4 in a special election.  (IN-4 was relabeled as IN-3 in 2002 and incidentally adjoins OH-5 directly to the west.  Democrat Tom Hayhurst made a great showing here in 2006 — 45.7% against Rep. Mark Souder in a district which Bush carried by 68.3% in 2004).  Although a Republican vs. Republican race, the recent upset in GA-10 also comes to mind in what can happen in a special election.

4) Republican candidates here may not be as strong as the Republicans would like us to believe, especially if they get into a nasty primary fight:

According to the Ohio Daily Blog (http://www.ohiodaily…): “The roster on the GOP side is much longer. A pair of term-limited long-time rivals, State Rep. Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) and State Sen. Randy Gardner (R-Bowling Green), are almost certainly in the race. The Columbus Dispatch blog The Daily Briefing reports that State Sen. Steve Buehrer (R-Delta) and State Rep. Lynn Wachtmann (R-Napoleon) are on the verge of jumping in, and Wood County Commissioner Tim W. Brown (R) and former State Rep. Rex Damschroder (R-Fremont) are considering running as well. The Wall Street Journal also mentions State Rep. Mark Wagner (R-Ottawa Hills) and former State Rep. Jim Hoops (R) as possible candidates. The deceased Congressman’s widow, former State Senator Dr. Karen L. Gillmor (R), has indicated that she will not run, but Joe Hallett of the Dispatch seems to think that she may change her mind.

In this kind of accelerated race with a large field of candidates, name recognition is probably the factor most likely to determine the outcome. Wierauch would appear to be in a good position due to her two recent campaigns. However, Bob Latta shares in his father’s name recognition and was previously a state senator and Wood County Commissioner. Lynn Wachtmann and Steve Buehrer have each served as State Senator in a district that accounts for about 40% of the 5th Congressional District. And, of course, as widow of the former Congressman Karen Gillmor has as much name recognition as anyone.”

So it seems like several Republicans may be running in the primary here, which may cause an intra-party battle.  Even if just one candidate emerges and there’s no fight, not all of the Republicans are universally beloved.  Even Latta in his last election in 2006 won in his House District (which corresponds almost exactly to Wood Co. and approximately 19% of OH-5 population) with only 56.9% of the vote, despite having represented the area for years. 

On the Democratic side, according to the Ohio Daily Blog, “Two-time challenger Robin Wierauch (D-Napoleon), the assistant director of the Center for Regional Development at Bowling Green State University, is definitely in the race. Weirauch got 43% of the vote against Gillmor in 2006 and 33% in 2004. She and her advisors have been hoping that there would be no primary on the Democratic side, but I have been told that there are at least two other Democrats are seriously considering a bid. One is Appellate Judge James R. Sherck (D-Fremont), who ran unsuccessfully against Gillmor’s predecessor Delbert Latta (R) four times from 1978 to 1984. The other is Mike Grandillo (D-Tiffin), a city councilman and vice president at Tiffin University.”

It looks like Wood Co. may be of central importance here as many of the candidates have ties to the Bowling Green area.  It should be noted that Wood was Weirauch’s strongest county in 2006; she received 49% of the vote there.  (If you compare the maps of the 2006 U.S. House and 2006 U.S. Senate elections, you will notice that Weirauch, despite getting 43.1% district-wide, seemed to under-perform in Seneca and Sandusky because it was Gillmor’s base area.  Whereas Ted Strickland did as good or better in Seneca and Sandusky than in Wood Co., Weirauch performed significantly worse in Seneca and Sandusky compared to Wood Co.  Looking at another map, you can see that Weirauch out-performed John Kerry in all but 2 counties – Seneca and Sandusky – because of those counties  ties to Gillmor.)

Weirauch wrote several editorials published in the Toledo Blade, criticizing Rep. Gillmor for supposedly living outside the district with only a token address within the district so that he could claim residency – this factor may have contributed to Weirauch doing as good as she did (in addition to the Democratic wave in Ohio in 2006), and would not be of help to us when running against a truly local Republican candidate – so there are pluses and minuses here. 

You can also get coverage of this race on the Buckeye Blog: http://www.buckeyest…

Two recent posts:
http://www.buckeyest…

  http://www.buckeyest…

Part of writing this diary was to discuss a potential Weirauch candidacy and to discuss the other potential Democratic candidates.  Although I think that Weirauch was impressive in 2006, I am not necessarily advocating for her candidacy – I just don’t know enough about the dynamics here.  I am not from Ohio, so would definitely appreciate local opinion on this subject.  I do think, however, that we may be able to make this district competitive.

5) Ohio is becoming more competitive overall and putting up a strong candidate here for the special may help us along the road, especially in November 2008:

As we all know, Ohio will be one of the keys to winning in 2008.  The state is clearly moving our way (no need for a long discussion of this; we can all see the recent trends).  We will probably be looking at several competitive House races next year ?
http://ohio2006elect…

here’s another recent story re. OH-15 and the state of the local Republican party http://ohio15th.blog…

The key to us winning a U.S. House race in OH-5 would be to really, really energize our base. A very energized base, even if relatively small numerically, can be a potent tool to increase our voting power.  Winning here, or even coming close, might be beneficial to us in the near and long term future, particularly in November of next year.  Things like voting lists, party contacts, and other means to expand and keep track of Democratic voters are always useful. But also simply an increased level of participation from Democrats in this relatively “red” part of an increasingly “blue” state like Ohio may prove to be of great importance to us as we move towards 2008.

So, this is how I see OH-5.  I don’t know if we will win here in the special election, but I certainly see signs that it may be possible.  Despite Republican crowing that their candidates would be shoo-ins, we should still take at least a long look at this district. 

Looking into the 2008 senate elections, we've been given a good look at what everyone here thinks on the details and the general picture of the 2008 elections. Now it's time to look at a bunch of 2008 senate rankings from various groups.

CQ Politics ranks two Democratics seats as “leans Democratic” (Landrieu and Johnson) and four as being “Democrat favored” (Baucus, Harkin, Lautenberg, and Pryor) everyone else is considered “safe Democratic”.

The Republicans, on the other hand, start off with one seat being listed as “leans Democratic” (Open Virginia), two as “no clear favorite” (Open Colorado and Coleman), four as “leans Republican” (Open Nebraska, Collins, Smith, Sununu), and ten as being “Republican favored” (Stevens, Chambliss, Sessions, McConnell, Dole, Domenici, Inhofe, Graham, Alexander, and Cornyn). The rest are considered safe.

Cook ranks one Democrat as being a “leans Democratic” (Landrieu) and one as being “likely Democratic” (Johnson – Poss. Ret.) while everyone else is considered “safe”.

For the Republicans, he lists two seats as being “Toss-up” (Colorado and Virginia open seats), four as being “leans Republican” (Collins, open Nebraska, Coleman, and Sununu), and five as being “likely Republican” (Stevens – poss. ret., Domenici – poss. ret., Craig, Smith, and Dole), the rest are considered “safe” with Inhofe and Cochran considered as possible retirements.

Rothenberg considers three Republicans (Sununu and open seats for Virginia and Colorado) to be “toss-ups”; three Republicans (Coleman, Collins, and Smith) and one Democrat (Landrieu) to be “narrow advantage incumbent party”; five Republicans (Dole, Domenici, Open Nebraska, McConnell, and Stevens) and one Democrat (Johnson) to be “clear advantage incumbent party”; and everyone else is considered to be safe. *note, Rothenberg has only officially updated 'til Hagel's announced retirement

Also, Larry Sabato has his own senate predictions in addition to House and Governor's races with some analysis of the states if you care to read them.

I want to say that I personally don't agree with Cook's assessment that Sununu can be considered a “leans Republican”. Even if Shaheen doesn't jump in, this race is, at best, a toss-up and a lean-Democratic if she does jump in. That's just me though, what do you guys think?

The last diary I wrote concerned the general expectations of the Congressional elections, and since this will definitely have a substantial impact on the Congressional elections, I think we need to look at how specific presidential candidates affect the congressional races.

To keep this from getting too out of hand, I'm only really looking at the top candidates for each party (Democrats: Clinton, Obama, and Edwards; Republicans: Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain)

 

Disclosure: I'm supporting Barack Obama in the presidential primaries.

Democratic Candidates

Hillary Clinton: Ok, to get this out of the way, Hillary Clinton is the frontrunner and, at the moment, most likely to win the nomination. The congressional races she helps are going to be in already blue states: Oregon (Gordon Smith) New Hampshire (Sununnu) possibly Minnesota (Coleman). In House races, she again helps freshman who are in blue districts and states and will help our efforts against the remainder of the northeast Republicans (Chris Shays, the lone New England Republican for one). Now here's the bad part: she's not all that helpful in the midwest or the south where quite a few Senate races could become competitive if the conditions are right: Kentucky (McConnell) Texas (Cornyn) North Carolina (Dole) Alabama (Sessions) Colorado (open) and Tennessee (Alexander).

My analysis: Clinton wins at the cost of the other tickets. Bill Clinton did the same thing in the 1996 election and that's what I think would happen here.

Barack Obama: Alright, Obama is the number two and, depending on the circumstances, could upset Clinton. So what does Obama do for the congressional ticket? Well, he's actually a ticket enhancer. Obama's candidacy will boost turnout of black voters and young voters (blacks vote at least 90% for Democrats and in southern states like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Alabama it could lead to some good upsets). Additionally, Obama also seems to do well among independents which would definitely be good for the two freshman congressmen in New Hampshire and in some red districts where winning over independent voters is important.

My analysis: Obama is a ticket-lifter, he doesn't inherently hurt the ticket the way Clinton does and, in fact, depending on who the Republicans pick, could actually put some extra seats into play that otherwise wouldn't be competitve.

John Edwards: Ok, Edwards is the dark-horse right now, and unless something really dramatic happens he's not winning the nomination, but having said that, here's my analysis of his impact on congressional races. Edwards is definitely a popular figure in the midwest and in a few of the southern states (North and South Carolina for instance). He'd definitely help candidates like Pryor and Harkin in Arkansas and Iowa respectively, and could probably do something about Elizabeth Dole (seriously, why doesn't he just drop out of the presidential race and just rerun for the Senate against Liddy Dole?).

My analysis: Edwards is more of a help than a detriment, and, quite frankly, had he been the nominee in 2004, we'd probably have picked up a couple of those southern seats in the Senate. Edwards share Obama's ability to make some southern seats more competitive, though his being on the ticket in 2004 does make him more polarizing than in previous years and being able to be linked to Kerry in the south could do more harm than good to congressional races. (John, it's not too late to challenge Liddy…)

Republicans to be added tomorrow

 

 

What’s for dinner?

 

• Fruit and Veggies laced with pesticides?
• Oysters tainted with Listeria?
• Shrimp sautéed with Salmonella?
• Spinach with a side of E. coli?
• Just plain filthy fish? 

 

Hungry yet? In the last couple months, I know many of us have thought twice while picking our food for our families at the supermarket, and we should. The CDC estimates that 76 million Americans suffer from foodborne illnesses every year, 325,000 are hospitalized, and 5,000 die.

 

While the mainstream media is happy to tell the public of the great threats to their health and safety, scaring them stiff into watching the evening news, they rarely ask why the flood of dangerous imports is happening and of our leaders, what can be done to stop it.

 

 A new report by Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch offers an answer to those questions. The report called “Trade Deficit in Food Safety: Proposed NAFTA Expansions Replicate Limits on U.S. Food Safety Policy that Are Contributing to Unsafe Food Imports” draws the link between the Bush administration’s damaging trade policies and our food safety problems.

 

Our food imports have increased sharply, almost doubling in value, since NAFTA and the WTO passed in the mid-‘90s. Seafood imports alone have increased 65 percent. For the first time in 2005, the United  States, formerly known as the world’s bread basket, became a net food importer, with a food deficit of nearly $370 million. 

 

There may not be anything inherently wrong with increasing the food imports into our country, but there is something inherently dangerous about doing so when our ability to inspect those imports is decreasing even more sharply than our increase in imports. In 1992, the FDA inspected 8% of all the food imports under its jurisdiction. In 2006, the inspection rate is now less than one percent, a staggering .6%.

 

NAFTA started this trend, and the Bush administration’s policy of free-trade-at-any-cost has made it worse. Under Bush, the U.S. has already expanded NAFTA to Central America and is now pushing for passage of NAFTA-expansion deals to Peru, Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. 

 

The real problem is that these so-called “trade” agreements do more than increase trade of goods between nations. Trade rules incorporated into the proposed FTAs with Peru, Panama, Colombia and South Korea limit food safety standards and border inspection. The agreements require the United  States to rely on foreign regulatory structures and foreign safety inspectors to ensure that food imports are safe. The agreements require that the U.S. food safety regulators treat imported food the same as domestically produced food, even though more intensive inspection of imported goods is needed to compensate for often weak domestic regulatory systems in some exporting nations.

 

Last November, Democrats won a much-needed and much-deserved majority in Congress, and trade issues played no small part in helping usher in new leadership. 37 supporters of our failed trade policy lost their seats to Democrats campaigning on fair trade. The food safety issue is just one aspect of the Bush administration’s trade policy that has hurt Americans, but it’s also an issue that Democrats can start fixing right now to make a real difference in people’s lives. While several Democratic leaders have proposed legislation to help mend our food safety regulatory system, none of those steps will suffice if our leaders keep passing these Bush administration trade deals. The first step that Democrats can take is to vote “no” to NAFTA expansions to Peru, Panama, Colombia, and South Korea. 

 

To read the report, sign a petition or find out what you can do to protect yourself from dangerous imports visit http://www.citizen.org/trade/food/ or read our blog, http://www.eyesontrade.org for continuing coverage of the unsafe food import crisis.

 

Democrat Bob Lord has drawn national attention by challenging Republican incumbent John Shadegg in Arizona CD-3 and beating the second-term Congressman at fundraising in the first quarter by an amazing amount. Now that the Lord campaign has captured the attention and support of Democrats nationally, it’s critical that this momentum continue if Lord is to defeat an incumbent Republican.

A group of large donors have agreed to match, dollar-for-dollar, every dollar that the Lord campaign raises in the next week up to $10,000. If they can raise $10,000 from the public at large, the effect will be to raise $20,000 for the campaign.

Please visit Bob Lord’s website and contribute what you can.

A 2nd strong quarter of fundraising will demonstrate that this campaign is for real and that Democrats have a realistic chance at picking up another seat in the Arizona Congressional delegation.  Last election Democrats picked up two seats from Republicans with Harry Mitchell defeating Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth and Gabby Giffords winning the seat vacated by Republican John Kolbe.  Let’s turn Arizona blue! 
 

Let’s get the word out on the internet, on talk radio, and by word of mouth, and we’ll be on our way to winning this race.  At very least, we’ll force the Republicans to spend money defending what, up until now, they had regarded as a safe seat.  Shadegg is low on money now because he gave away the money he raised last election to other Republicans because he did not face a strong well-funded challenger.  This time will be different!

The breakdown of CD-3 by voter registration is 45 percent Republican; 30 percent, Democratic; and 25 percent, independent, but it is winnable by a Democrat with strong crossover appeal like Bob Lord.

This congressional district is actually quite politically moderate; not only are one quarter of voters registered independents, but Democratic candidates like Governor Janet Napolitano and Attorney General Terry Goddard have carried this district in recent years.  With your help, Bob Lord can win in CD-3 too!

Cross-posted from Burnt Orange Report

So the first quarter of fundraising is over and while the focus was mostly on the presidential candidates, let’s not forget about our incumbent members of Congress. In order to do that, I’ve compiled data for all 32 members in Texas and sorted them in four categories: 1Q Raised, 1Q Spent, Cash on Hand, and their Burn rate (calculated as spent/raised so the higher the number the more spent).

Click on the different tabs below to see the totals. Democrats in bold but all are marked by party. Al Green has not yet filed (not uncommon). If it’s not displaying below, click here.

Glad to see Chet (D), Lampson (D), and Ciro (D) high on that list, though I’m sure Lampson is still going to raise more knowing that he will have the toughest re-election fight in Texas. Six of the seven worst fundraisers were Republicans.

But what is up with Ron Paul (R) and Ralph Hall (R)? I know Paul is running for President (as a Republican, not Libertarian) but Hall pulled in a meager $2000. Hall is old (84) but hasn’t announced any plans to retire. Could this be a sign? He also used to be a Democrat until he switched parties after the DeLay redistricting forced him into a more Republican district. Might be be convinced to switch back? Under House rules he’d retain his seniority and seeing as he’s been in congress since 1981, that’s a lot of rank he could pull.

In terms of Cash on Hand, Austin’s Lloyd Doggett (D) is #1 with $1.95 million. But after that it’s mostly Republican, though some notably lower than 2 years ago like Lamar Smith (R) and Pete Sessions (R). That’s one nice side effect of the campaigns of John Courage and Will Pryor.

As to the burn rate- anything over 1 indicates more money being spent than raised. Texas Democrats did very well in this category holding 10 of the 14 best spots, holding on to their cash and building up their warchests.  Paul (R) is the worst burner but his attention is elsewhere so no surprise. Hall (R) takes the number 2 spot- further hints at potential retirement?

Anything else of note? Add your thoughts and analysis in the comments.

A few weeks ago, we discussed a few of the swearing-in parties for the 110th Congress in Washington, DC on Jan. 4th.  If you’re going to be in the area, add another one to your list: the first Netroots Swearing-In Party!  Here’s the lowdown:

WHAT:
  Netroots Swearing-In Party

WHERE:
  MCCXXIII, 1223 Connecticut Ave NW, DC
  Dupont Circle metro stop, south exit
  http://www.1223dc.co…

WHEN:
  Thursday, January 4
  9PM ’til Midnight
  Champagne toast at 10PM (Courtesy of the New Organizing Institute)

The host committee will include Moveon.org‘s Tom Matzzie, Roz Lemieux of the New Organizing Institute, Chris Bowers and Matt Stoller of MyDD, Rep. Brad Miller (D-NC), Harry Reid aide Ari Rabin-Havt, and the Swing State Project’s very own DavidNYC.

If you can make it out, stop by and join in on some good conversations and plenty of champagne!

UPDATE (David): If you’re looking for other events to attend, check out this handy PDF I’ve compiled. Just one warning: Some of these events may be very private/very exclusive/require donations/require RSVPs, etc. So if you aren’t sure, please call the campaign or organization in question.

I’m probably heading down to Washington, DC for the swearing-in of the 110th Congress on Jan. 4th. Are any other SSP folks gonna be around, and if so, what parties, receptions, etc. are you headed to? I’ll definitely be hanging with the Hodes folks, but I’d also like to make the rounds. I have this hunch that the mood will be very festive for our side this time around!