Fresh Off the Grill, Medium-Rare . . . VEEPSTAKES!!!!

(Please forgive that groan-inducing pun in the subject line.  I just couldn’t help it).

I know this site is all about down-ballot races, but I noticed that the topic of the Veepstakes became rather popular as it spun off from the thread on coattails.  So, I’d like to open up the floor to discuss the matter . . . from the specific vantage point of how it affects the dynamics of the down-ballot races.  I’ll start with the example of one of my favorite blue-trending states, Virginia:

The names of the Virginia Triumvirate (Warner, Kaine, and Webb) have all been tossed around as VP candidates here in the blogosphere.  But, there are problems with picking any one of them.  Most obviously, Mark Warner is running for senate this year, and taking him out of the running for that will leave us with no strong candidate.  And if we don’t take that Virginia senate seat, there is no way we can get anywhere near the magic number 60.

Moving on to Tim Kaine, the first disadvantage of picking him is the fact that the Lt. Gov. of Virginia is a Republican– and not a moderate one, either.  In addition to that, Kaine is not exactly a compelling presence on the stump.  In Drew Westen’s recent book The Political Brain, Westen uses Kaine’s 2006 rebuttal to the State Of The Union as an example of what Democrats have been doing wrong in terms of presentation.  Apparently, Kaine presented himself in a way that seemed de-fanged, reminiscent of “Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood.”  I had to agree with that when I saw Kaine’s introduction to Obama at the state Jefferson-Jackson Dinner a few weeks back.  He just doesn’t come off with any oomph, if you know what I mean, and we need an attack-dog on the ticket.  Furthermore, Kaine rode into the governorship on Mark Warner’s coattails.  I highly doubt that his own coattails are as long, or that his pull statewide is that strong.

Finally, getting to the man who was “Born Fighting,” Jim Webb.  He can definitely sucker-punch the Republicans into oblivion, and appeal to voters whose top concern is national security.  And, as a writer by trade, he gives great speeches that get people fired up.  So where’s the downside?  Well . . . my lingering concern is that, while Webb would be replaced by a Democrat temporarily, no Democrat in Virginia is strong enough to hold that seat in a special election.  And, behind the scenes, the loathsome, rapacious miscreant known as George Felix Allen has been plotting his comeback. Replace Webb with a weaker candidate and we just might see Mr. Macaca back in his old senate seat.  And, if that isn’t a chilling enough image . . . remember that, before his defeat, Allen had every intention of running for president.  If he gets back into the senate, he will use it as a springboard to a national run, be it in 2012 or 2016.

To sum up the above paragraphs: Virginia is currently in a delicate stage of its development toward blueness.  Its political ecosystem must be left intact, and it will trend our way naturally.

I yield the floor!

Coattails, Coattails.

These days, many of us in the blogosphere are turning our attention to the coattail effect in this year’s election.  I’ll leave all the presidential speculation to every other blog out there, but I wanted to open up the floor to discuss the effect of gubernatorial and senatorial candidates on congressional and state-legislature races.  Who hurts?  Who helps?  I can’t help but speculate that some down-ballot candidates in Minnesota are waiting with bated breath to see how much of a liability Al Franken turns out to be.  And I definitely foresee Mark Warner helping down-ticket Dems in Virginia win new seats in the U.S. House and in state and local offices.  Got any other observations and insights?  I yield the floor!

NY-26: The weekly update on Jon Powers for Congress

NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers is gaining more and more momentum. In fact, his campaign is at an excellent point right now. On Thursday, Powers was endorsed by the Wyoming County Democratic Committee. This was the fourth county Democratic committee to endorse Powers in his run to unseat Tom Reynolds.

The announcement regarding the endorsement came attached with a list of those who have already endorsed Powers.

Here is that list:

Wyoming County Democrats have answered the call for a change in leadership in New York’s 26th Congressional District.  Last night, by an overwhelming majority, the Wyoming Democratic Committee endorsed Jon Powers’ campaign for Congress.  Powers is running against embattled representative Tom Reynolds.  “I am thrilled to have the support of Wyoming County Democrats.  My family has deep roots here, my father was born and raised in Pearl Creek, and it means a lot to me to have their endorsement,” said Jon Powers, former captain in the U.S. Army, Iraq war veteran and Democratic candidate for Congress.

Wyoming is the 4th Democratic Committee to endorse Powers’ candidacy and shows that Jon’s message of leading by example and putting problem-solving ahead of party politics is resonating with the voters.  Powers now holds the endorsement of the majority of the counties in his district.

Powers’ Endorsements:

·         Genesee County Democratic Committee

·         Livingston County Democratic Committee

·         Orleans County Democratic Committee

·         Wyoming County Democratic Committee

·         Town of Clarence Democratic Committee

·         SEIU 1199

·         AFSCME Local 264

·         VoteVets

·         VetPAC

·         General Wesley Clark

·         Senator Bob Kerrey

·         Senator John Kerry

It’s amazing the support Powers is getting. He also makes the occasional contribution to the blogosphere. Also on Thursday, Powers wrote a post on The Albany Project entitled, “Iraq’s Junior Mujhadeen.” Jon also posted the piece on Daily Kos, Huffington Post and Rochester Turning. Much of Jon’s work on the issues of children becoming extremists in Iraq can be linked to a group he founded, War Kids Relief. (Note: I spoke with Jon about War Kids and he said that the website is under some maintenance right now. But for future reference, the website can be found here.)

Jon’s campaign is riding high. I reported last week that Jon had raised over $139,000 during the fourth quarter and had over $261,000 cash on hand. He’s received huge support in the past and will continue to do so from some top-notch people.

One thing is for certain: Jon Powers is for real. The four county Democratic committees that have endorsed Jon thus far (Livingston County, Orleans County, Genesee County and the aforementioned Wyoming County) all are rural counties in the 26th congressional district. They are predominantly Republican and if Jon is going to win this race, he’ll need the rural Democrats behind him. We plan to do just that, just like we have since Jon declared in June 2007.

On the web:

Contribute to Jon Powers for Congress

Jon Powers for Congress

Congressional races by state: WI, LA, MN

These are all states with filing deadlines in the first half of July

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

WI has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

LA has 7  congressional districts. 2 Democrats and 5 Republicans

MN has 8 congressional districts. 5 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

LA-02   D+28   .04      Jefferson       No        Safe for a Democrat,

                                                 primary possible

LA-03   R+5    .35      Melancon        No        Mostly safe

MN-01   R+1    .74      Walz            Yes       Somewhat vul

MN-04   D+13   .30      McCollum        Yes       Safe

MN-05   D+21   .22      Ellison         Yes       Safe

MN-07   R+6    .80      Peterson        No        Safe

MN-08   D+4    .80      Oberstar        No        Safe

WI-02   D+13   .65      Baldwin         Yes       Safe

WI-03   D+3    .81      Kind            No        Safe

WI-04   D+20   .12      Moore           No        Safe

WI-07   D+2    .79      Obey            No        Safe

WI-08   R+4    .73      Kagen           Yes       Somewhat vul



Those held by Republicans

LA-01 R+18  .50

If you picture LA as a boot, LA-01 is the top of the toes, bordering MS, lake Pontchartrain and the Gulf of Mexico.

Jindal, first elected in 2004, won election as governor and will be retiring.

Gilda Reed is the only confirmed Democratic challenger.

LA-04 R+7 .36

LA-04 is the western edge of LA, bordering TX and AR

McCrery, first elected in 1988, has won easily in LA’s odd ‘primary only’ system, far outraising his opponents; now, he will retire

There are no confirmed challengers, but lots of interested parties.

LA-05 R+10 .39

LA-05 is the northeast part of the ‘leg’ of the boot.

Alexander, first elected in 2002, was a Democrat, but switched to the Republicans (what? he doesn’t like being in the majority?) In the 2006 runoff he won easily

No confirmed opponent

LA-06 R+7 .33

LA-06 is Baton Rouge and surrounding areas

Baker, first elected in 1986, is retiring

The only confirmed candidate (of either party!) is Don Cazayoux .

LA-07 R+7  .39

LA-07 is the southwestern part of LA, bordering TX and the Gulf

Boustany, first elected in 2004, had a fairly close race then, but won easily in 2006 against an underfunded opponent

There are no confirmed opponents.

MN-02 R+3 .78

MN-02 is the area south of the twin cities

Kline, first elected in 2002, has had reasonably challenging races, never getting over 56%

The only confirmed challenger is Steve Sarvi

MN-03 R+1 .66

MN-03 is the northern and western (and some southern) suburbs of the twin cities.

Ramstad, first elected in 1990, might (or might not) be retiring.

There are a couple of confirmed challengers: Terri Bonoff and Jigar Madia

MN-06 R+5 .84

MN-06 is an odd shaped district that includes a blob in the middle of MN, and then extends east to the WI border and wraps around the twin cities

Bachmann, first elected in 2006, won 50-42 against Wetterling, even though Wetterling raised more money ($3.1 million to $2.6 million).

There are two confirmed challengers: Bob Olson and Elwyn Tinklenberg (no web site)

WI-01 R+2 .66

WI-01 is the southeastern corner of WI, bordering IL and Lake Michigan

Ryan, first elected in 1998, has won easily against underfunded opponents

There are two confirmed challengers: Marge Krupp and Paulette Garin

WI-05 R+12 .76

WI-05 is in eastern WI, it wraps around Milwaukee, and borders Lake Michigan

Sensensbrenner, first elected in 1978, has won easily even when his opponents raised some funds.  He might retire,

No confirmed challengers

WI-06 R+5 .76

WI-06 is central eastern WI, bordering Lake Michigan and running west to Marquette county

Petri, first elected in 1979, has not had  a close race since 1992, and often has no opposition.

This year, his challenger is Roger Kittleson (no web site)

Summary

LA – I don’t know what’s going on in LA-06

MN – MN-03 is a definite opportunity.  MN-02 might be

WI – Kagen is vulnerable – it’s a swing district and he’s had some controversy.  

Congressional races by state KS, NH, OK, RI, WA

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable

Help us Choose Congressional Candidates

Our PAC, Blue Catapult, is holding its first fundraiser next Tuesday in Washington, DC.  We support Democratic congressional candidates who are challenging incumbent Republicans or Republican-held open seats.  The idea is that incumbents should do well on their own in raising money, but if we want to expand the Democrats’ majority in Congress, then we need to help emerging Democratic challengers in their campaigns.

So we need some help right now in identifying good Democratic challengers, and we are hoping that you can provide some nominations.  Here are our criteria:

1) The Democratic congressional candidate must be running for a seat currently occupied by a Republican, whether the incumbent is running for reelection or not.

2) The candidate must have a clear path to the nomination.  No primary challenge.

3) The candidate must have a decent campaign operation.  Our support is for candidates who, with some more support and attention, could become a competitive seat.

4) The campaign should not be a top target of the DCCC.  We want to help emerging candidates, not ones who are already assured of good support.

If you know of any good candidates, please post them in comments.  We will choose 5 candidates, and at our event next Tuesday the attendees will vote and the top two will be the recipients of our first contributions.

So, in the comments below, please nominate potential candidates for us to support with some explanation as to why they are good investments.  If you want more info about us, please visit www.bluecatapult.com  We will of course post our decisions and results as they are determined.

Thanks for your help.

Rasmussen Congressional Poll–could the House flip back?

Rasmussen’s latest Congressional generic poll has the Democrats only up 43%-38%.

While I think Rasmussen has been touting that 2008 will be more of a Republican year, this poll result should be a cause of a lot of worry.

We’re likely going to field fewer candidates than 2006, and the Republicans will need one less

seat after March 11 (I’m very pessimistic about

this special election).

What’s to blame?  I think it’s a combination of poor leadership, the surge (let’s admit it–it hasn’t really worked, but a brilliant political move), and the effect of consistently poor approval ratings.  You can’t escape 25% forever.

Any thoughts?

NY-26: A great week for the Powers campaign

NY-26 Democratic candidate Jon Powers had a great week in his race for Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds’ House seat.

It all started with a fundraiser in Buffalo. Rep. Steve Israel from New York’s 2nd District attended the fundraiser to show his strong support for Powers.

Israel touted Jon’s military record, as well as his message of leadership by example. Following Israel, Powers spoke about the concerns of Western New Yorkers. Powers said that WNYers’ first concern is jobs. The second concern is jobs and probably the third is jobs as well. The jobs issue is an important one for people in the 26th district.  

But the week was far from over for Jon. Wednesday night, just hours after Rep. Israel’s support, Jon received the Livingston County Democratic Committee’s endorsement. At their committee meeting, the Livingston County Dems heard from not only Jon, but Alice Kryzan as well. After listening to both candidates message, the Livingston County Dems overwhelmingly endorsed Jon in his run to unseat Reynolds.

It was the third county Democratic endorsement Jon has received. Previously, the Orleans County Dems endorsed Jon and the Genesee County Democratic Committee was the first to endorse Jon. He’s also received endorsements from Sen. Bob Kerrey and Gen. Wesley Clark.

Speaking of Orleans County, Jon came to Orleans County for a house party on Sunday. (Note: I’m from Orleans County.) That was a great event and just from the feeling I got from everyone (about 35-40 people) in the room, he will have a lot of support in the rural areas of this district, including Orleans County.

Then last night, Jon capped off the last week by receiving the Town of Clarence Democratic Committee endorsement. Again, he went head-to-head with Kryzan and Clarence took Jon. Jon is from Clarence, so he had the home-field advantage and a clear message.

Jon is a great all-around candidate. I will write often about the news from his campaign. It should be a great 9 1/2 months.

Links:

Powers For Congress

Contribute to Jon Powers for Congress

Join Club 26

NY-26: Powers picks up Kerrey’s endorsement; Davis to run again?

Another day, another big endorsement for Jon Powers.

Today, the Powers campaign announced that former U.S. Senator and 9/11 Commission member Bob Kerrey has endorsed Jon Powers in his race for Tom Reynolds’ seat in New York’s 26th congressional district:

“With the utter lack of accountability we’ve seen in Washington these past several years, Congress desperately needs more leaders like Jon Powers, “Kerrey said. “I’m endorsing Jon Powers for Congress because he leads by example, calls things as he sees them, and is dedicated to getting things done.”

“Throughout his exemplary service in the US Army, Jon Powers was recognized for his ability to solve difficult problems and achieve real results,” said Kerrey. “These days, it’s disappointingly rare when any of us can say the same of Congress or the federal government.”

“Especially in times like these, Washington needs – and New York will benefit from – Jon Powers’ refreshing style of leadership-by-example.”

More on the flip.

This comes nearly the same day as a story about Jack Davis was in the Buffalo News. Apparently, Davis is seriously considering a third run for the 26th district:

While many observers had expected Davis to bypass a third run at Reynolds, his consideration of another campaign looms as a major development in an increasingly crowded race. Iraq War veteran Jonathan Powers has been organizing a Democratic candidacy since early 2007, while Buffalo attorney Alice J. Kryzan has also been raising money and solidifying support.

Davis said he is aware of his two possible opponents in a Democratic primary but said he has no doubt that his considerable wealth would enable him to defeat both.

“If he wants to run a primary against me, it’s a free country,” he said of Powers. “But I don’t think I will have any trouble beating him.”

A few things here.

(1) Davis is essentially saying that he can beat Powers and Alice Kryzan with his pocketbook. This is true: He does have more money than these two. But his only problem is that he doesn’t campaign. In talking with members of the Davis team in 2006, Davis refused to get out and work. He didn’t go door-to-door and he certainly didn’t visit the rural counties.

(2) Anyone who knows anything about Western New York politics knows that Len Lenihan is self-serving and only cares about one thing: Len Lenihan. He made quite a reputation for himself with the rural counties in WNY when he (and the Erie County Republican chair) made the decision on who would run for State Supreme Court in the 8th Judicial District. The problem? There’s eight counties in this JD. So one county (one large county, I might add) made the decision for the other seven.

(3) Over the next seven days, I will have seen Jon Powers more than I ever saw Jack Davis (or Alice Kryzan for that matter). Jon is accessible. Jack Davis was never that way. I made three trips to Davis’s factory in Akron, NY and never saw him once. To be specific, I’ve never met Jack Davis.

Jon has worked hard – very hard. This is how I view the race:

Powers: He’s accessible and he’s truly campaigning. He’s raising money locally and nationally and he reaches out to the rural counties. He didn’t get the rural endorsements from Genesee and Orleans counties because he just sat in Erie County for the past six months. He got those endorsements because he visits regularly. He will be at a local Powers for Congress house party and I will be attending a fundraiser for Jon next Wednesday.

Kryzan: Two things that really turned me off with Kryzan from the start. She defended Hooker/Occidental Chemical in the “Love Canal” debacle and she contributed $250 to Tom Reynolds in 2000. Game. Set. Match.

Davis: Okay, he has a lot of money… but that’s all he’s got. He’s not a progressive. The story is that he turned Democrat because he was angry after not being able to meet Dick Cheney. I don’t know how true that is, but it would fit. He is, at best, a moderate Democrat. What he really is is a disgruntled Republican just looking to run on the other party’s line.

The 26th will be a madhouse. I thought we were supposed to be putting the best candidate forward to beat Tom Reynolds?  

NM-Sen, NM-01, NM-02, NM-03: Turning the state blue

Cross-posted at Daily Kos under NMLib 

As many are aware, New Mexico politics has almost always been something of a mixed bag for Democrats.

On the one hand, we have elected and re-elected a very popular governor in Bill Richardson and, by wide margins, consistently re-elected popular United States Senator Jeff Bingaman, as well as electing a solidly progressive congressman in Tom Udall. This is all on top of consistently electing a Democratic state legislature. On the other hand, Republicans have had their share of victories in the state. Pete “Slash, Mine, and Burn” Domenici has been senator since the beginning of Time. They have also elected the wingnut Steve Pearce and the psedo-moderate Heather “the Feather” Wilson.

With Domenici's retirement the entire congressional election (save Bingaman) has turned this state from a single competitive congressional district and presidential swing-state, to being a key battleground in the House, Senate, and Presidential arena giving us a unique opportunity to turn everything on the state and national level in New Mexico blue.

First things first, with Tom Udall the presumptive nominee for the Democrats and Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce competiting in what will likely be a bruising primary things look very good for our prospects in taking Domenici's senate seat. But what about the house seats? Without knowing who will ultimately be the nominees from each party, it become difficult to predict, so I want to speak to the likely impact the Senate race will have (and on who the nominees are). Udall's presence on the Senate race will easily provide a boost for Democrats in all the congressional districts (especially in NM-01 and NM-03), though it might motivate some Republicans in NM-02.

Keeping this in mind, if Pearce and Wilson go nuclear against each other in the primaries, Republicans might be so disgusted with whoever the winner is that they decide not to turn out. Again, depending on who the nominees are in each district, and depending on who the presidential nominees are (many of you already know my presidential preference, so I won't comment on how this works out, but any commenters who want to go into some details on that should feel free to post it). I think the best shot at winning everything in New Mexico is for a bruised and battered Heather Wilson to take on Tom Udall. One of Heather Wilson's strengths in elections has always been her ability to appear to be moderate on a few issues. If Pearce challenges her too much, she'll have to convince the Republican base that she is every bit as much a wing-nut as Pearce, damaging her reputation (which will have consequences in swing cities like Albuquerque. This might also lower Republican turnout in NM-02, which can give an opening to whoever the Democrat is there. Even if we don't win in NM-02, we can force the NRCC to waste what little money they have in a normally safe district for them.

Donate money to NM House Candidates and to Future Senator Tom Udall