Tag: John McCain

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/3-5, likely voters, 3/29-31 in parens):

John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)

J.D. Hayworth (R): 36 (37)

Other: 6

Undecided: 10 (11)

(MoE: ±5%)

Rodney Glassman (D): 35 (33)

John McCain (R-inc): 48 (52)

Undecided: 17 (15)

Rodney Glassman (D): 42 (37)

J.D. Hayworth (R): 43 (48)

Undecided: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±4%)

All around, you have got to love those weak numbers for Mac The Knife! McCain’s favorables have taken a dip from 47-46 in late March to 43-52 in this poll. What’s especially remarkable about all of these numbers is that, of all the Senate and gubernatorial match-ups, McCain is the only Republican to earn double-digit support from Hispanic voters… and just barely so at a mere 10% of the vote! (Recall that 40% of Arizona Hispanics voted for McCain’s Presidential bid in 2008.)

The gube numbers:

Jan Brewer (R): 32

Buz Mills (R): 14

Dean Martin (R): 13

John Munger (R): 5

Undecided: 36

(MoE: ±5%)

Terry Goddard (D): 48

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 42

Undecided: 10

Terry Goddard (D): 47

Dean Martin (R): 35

Undecided: 18

Terry Goddard (D): 48

Buz Mills (R): 34

Undecided: 18

Terry Goddard (D): 47

John Munger (R): 30

Undecided: 23

Remember when Jan Brewer was considered dead in the water in the Republican primary thanks to her apostasy on taxes? (One Rasmussen poll even had her at 10%!) Looks like that was nothing that some good ol’ fashioned racism couldn’t cure, although she’s still given a big assist from the fractured nature of the Republican primary field… and “Undecided” is currently beating her by four points.

Note that the general election numbers are extremely close to PPP’s take on this race in late April. One difference, though, is that PPP gave Brewer a more favorable performance among Hispanics. In their poll, Goddard was beating her by 71-25 among Hispanic voters, while R2K gives Goddard an even more commanding 74-9 lead in that demographic.

Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Republican voters):

John McCain (R): 46

J.D. Hayworth (R): 35

Jim Deakin (R): 7

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±5%)

McCain isn’t in hot shape here, sporting a 44-45 approval rating among primary voters, and losing conservatives to Hayworth by a 46-38 margin. However, the big reason why McCain is in charge, it seems, is that Hayworth is having trouble extending his appeal beyond the righter-than-right clump of the party, attracting a terrible 13-59 approval rating from moderates.

Also, the Behavior Research Center released their general election numbers of this race today, finding McCain up by 46-24 over Democrat Rodney Glassman, and Hayworth ahead of Glassman by 37-30. (Keep in mind the usual caveat with BRC polls, namely that it was conducted over an unusually long two-week period.)

AZ-Sen: The Behavior Research Center has a poll out on the AZ-Sen Republican primary, but it was apparently taken over the course of two weeks, which is deeply odd. (This seems to be par for the course for the BRC.) Also, the sample size is just 315. Anyhow, John McCain beats J.D. Hayworth by 54-26, a bigger margin than pretty much any other poll I can recall.

FL-Sen: Richy rich-guy Jeff Greene has the perfect profile for these troubled times, wouldn’t you agree? He made half a billion (with a b) betting on the housing collapse and wants to run in the Dem primary against Kendrick Meek. (He’ll have to make up his mind by Friday.) Also, he’s being advised by none other than Doug Schoen and Joe Trippi. Joe Trippi is a Jedi? More like Jar-Jar.

PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (4/19-27, likely voters incl. leaners, no trendlines):

Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45

John Callahan (D): 33

Other/undecided: 22

(MoE: ±6%)

Another long survey period and small sample size, but independent polls of House races are rare things. Obama has 55% favorables. Dent is at 53-29, Callahan at 43-13.

Blogosophere: As part of their revamped politics section, the Washington Post says it’s creating a fifty-state blogger network. But get this: They are asking bloggers to provide content to the Post for free. What a crock. Incidentally, the Hartford Courant tried something like this a few years back (in the midst of staff layoffs), but has since pulled the plug.

Census: Five states on the cusp of either losing a seat (CA, NY, TX) or gaining one (AZ, FL) are at risk of losing out because of poor Census response rates. A big part of the problem is the low participation among Latinos. I didn’t know this, but apparently, Clinton halted immigration raids during the 2000 Census, something Obama refused to do. That seems really unwise to me.

DNC: Of the $50 million in plans to spend on the midterms, the DNC says that $20 million will be direct investments in individual races, presumably in the form of independent expenditures.

Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Arizona voters, 9/18-21/2009 in parens):

Rodney Glassman (D): 33 (25)

John McCain (R-inc): 49 (55)

Undecided: 18 (20)

Rodney Glassman (D): 42

J.D. Hayworth (R): 39

Undecided: 19

(MoE: ±3.4%)

Is nothing sacred? It seems that even John McCain is in the doghouse with voters back in his home state, where is approval rating has fallen to an abysmal 34-55 (down from 42-48 in September). Perhaps not coincidentally, PPP also finds that, by a margin of 55% to 28%, voters consider him to be more of a “partisan voice for national Republicans” than an “independent voice for Arizona”. That might actually help John Sidney in the GOP primary, where his job approval is 48-39, but where a plurality of voters still consider him to be “too liberal”.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see where Hayworth stands in the primary.

AR-Sen: The Communications Workers of America, a union supporting Bill Halter, is firing back with an ad on black radio to combat Blanche Lincoln’s bullshit spot claiming she “stood with our president to pass healthcare reform.” CWA’s ad is in heavy rotation around the state, running “50 times a day” around Little Rock. They also have a new TV ad out, but no word on the size of the buy.

AZ-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has given its first endorsement of the 2010 cycle to Sen. John McCain – but apparently cash ain’t attached. I guess the CoC, the grand doyenne of “cheap labor conservatives,” doesn’t believe Johnny Mac’s nativist turn is for real. Given what a fraud McCain has shown himself to be from top to bottom, I guess this makes sense.

CA-Sen: No, the reason John McCain can’t be found in Arizona isn’t because they took him “to a farm upstate.” He’s out in California, campaigning with Carly Fiorina.

IN-Sen: It’s not just that Dan Coats has an unsavory record as a lobbyist – his voting record seems pretty out-of-step with the crazies who make up the modern GOP base. John Hostettler is hitting Coats (albeit in the form of a web video) for things like his votes in favor of the assault weapons ban, the Brady Bill, and the Clinton crime bill – a set of votes tradmed analysts usually like to ascribe many 1994 Dem losses to.

UT-Sen: While they haven’t picked a specific horse to back yet, the Club for Growth has nonetheless spent $133K against Sen. Bob Bennett.

AZ-Gov: Democrat Terry Goddard has finally made his gubernatorial bid official.

AL-02, AL-05: GOP State Sen. Harri Anne Smith, who endorsed Dem Bobby Bright for re-election, has been kicked off her own re-election ballot by the Alabama Republican Party in retaliation. Smith lost the GOP primary in 2008 to Jay Love and apparently is still smarting over that – but this has to sting quite a bit more. Smith hasn’t decided if she’ll run as an independent instead. (Switch! Switch!) Meanwhile, the AL GOP said that turncoat Parker Griffith could stay on the Republican ballot, despite a challenge thanks to his party-switching ways.

FL-08: I’ve totally lost track of how many Republicans are trying to challenge Rep. Alan Grayson, so what’s one more? Wealthy businessman Ross Beiling, owner of a medical parts supplier, is throwing his shrimp on the barbie.

MI-07: While two Michigan Republicans have endorsed ex-Rep. Tim Walberg in his comeback bid, five others are staying neutral in the primary, which also includes Brian Rooney, younger brother of Rep. Tom Rooney (FL-16).

NY-05: Dan Halloran, a Republican who won a Dem-held seat on the NYC City Council last year, is weighing a challenge to Rep. Gary Ackerman. Halloran, a practicing Theodist, thinks he can make Ackerman pay a price for voting in favor of healthcare reform. Ackerman, for his part, has $1.1 million on hand and the support of the Queens Independence Party. This district also went 63-36 for Obama (but notably, that’s the same percentage that Kerry got, suggesting there was something of a “conservative white ethnic New Yorkers for McCain” effect here).

NY-13: The United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1500 is backing Rep. Mike McMahon, in spite of his vote against healthcare reform, citing his support of the Employee Free Choice Act. Speaking of the CWA again, though, a day ago, its local vice president, Chris Shelton, called McMahon “the Judas from Staten Island.” Personally, I think that phrase is overused, and I’m going to start calling traitors “Brutuses.”

Across the Pond: Our friends in the U.K. have scheduled their elections for May 6th. Imagine if we only had one-month campaigns here!

• AZ-Sen: Looks like the Maverick has finally been broken (as he’s decided that it’s preferable to spend six years chewing his cud while fenced in the GOP pasture, instead of getting sent prematurely to the glue factory). In the face of a potentially serious primary from the right from J.D. Hayworth, John McCain says not only is he no longer a maverick, but he “never considered himself a maverick.” (Except for in all those campaign ads from two years ago?) In response, Hayworth said McCain is trying to “encourage amnesia.”

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s a new LA Times/USC poll of the two major races in California, with a mixed bag of results for Democrats. Like most pollsters, they find that Republican Meg Whitman has pulled into a small lead over Jerry Brown in the governor’s race, thanks to her nonstop deluge of self-funded advertising; she leads Brown 44-41, while she leads Steve Poizner in the GOP primary 60-20. On the Senate side, Barbara Boxer leads a Generic Republican by a surprisingly wide 48-34. Polling Generic R seems pretty weird, though, considering that there are only two likely opponents for her: Tom Campbell leads Carly Fiorina in the GOP primary 29-25, with Chuck DeVore lagging at 9. One other bit of good news for Dems: by a 46-29 margin, voters prefer to back a candidate who backed health care reform.

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet is playing it safe, making plans for a petition drive to make sure his name is on the ballot in November. He needs at least 30% at the Democratic state convention to qualify, but his Plan B seems to be an acknowledgment that he may be facing a rough time at the convention too. Remember that he lost at the caucus level to former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff (whose main source of strength seems to be insiders and activists, rather than the broader population).

• IN-Sen: CQ takes a look at the NRSC’s private teeth-gnashing over the possibility that kooky ex-Rep. John Hostettler might beat ex-Sen. Dan Coats in the primary, something that can’t be ruled out in an anti-establishment year like this one. They’d then have to decide whether they want to financially prop up Hostettler, a legendarily poor fundraiser who’s relied on shoestring campaigns and religious right ground troops. Still, a reasonably competent Hostettler ought to be able to make short work of Coats in the GOP primary, given the amount of material he has to work with: for instance, it turns out that Coats, when lobbying for King & Spaulding, lobbied Congress in favor of cap and trade, the same legislation he claims he now opposes.

• NV-Sen: If there’s one reason not to quite count out Harry Reid yet, it’s his ability to bring in the campaign cash. He brought in more than $1.5 million for the quarter, giving him more than $10 million in receipts so far this cycle. Sue Lowden, ostensibly the GOP’s top contender, says she raised about $500K and will match that dollar-for-dollar from her own personal stash. Danny Tarkanian raised $445K last quarter.

• NY-Sen-B (pdf): These numbers are a little stale, but we found there were some more useful numbers buried in that Marist poll from last week where the topline was just the usual rigamarole about the Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki matchup that’s very unlikely to happen (especially not if Al D’Amato has anything to say about it). They also tested some head-to-heads with the lesser GOPers who are actually in the race: Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 54-25, Joe DioGuardi 54-27, and David Malpass 54-25. They also looked at the GOP primary, finding DioGuardi winning it with 18, followed by Blakeman at 10, Malpass at 9, and non-candidate Dan Senor at 4. A permutation including Pataki finds Pataki at 62, with DioGuardi at 7, Blakeman at 4, and Malpass and Senor at 2. In other news, Gillibrand picked up an endorsement today from one of her biggest skeptics, Assemblyman and Kings Co. Dem chair Vito Lopez. Lopez had been considering backing Harold Ford Jr., way back in those heady days of February.

• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi is still saying he’s “completely undecided” about running for Senate, but will do it if he thinks he has a “50% chance” of winning. Here’s one more bit that might help move his decision along, though: financially, he’d be starting from scratch against Patty Murray, who raked in another $1 million last quarter, bringing her total war chest to $5.9 million.

• AL-Gov: I gather from the comments that SSP is full of mustache aficionados, and this news might prove heartbreaking to them: Ron Sparks shaved off his legendary ‘stache. He says this was a spur-of-the-moment decision at the barber shop (and hopefully not the result of thorough focus grouping?). I just hope Travis Childers doesn’t decide to follow suit.

• NY-Gov: Wealthy businessman Carl Paladino has decided to go ahead with his teabaggish-sounding campaign for Governor, kicking off his bid today in Buffalo. He’ll be running in the GOP primary, although he’d previously made noises about a possible independent run. Unfortunately, his rollout might be overshadowed by other news today… that he had a daughter with his mistress 10 years ago, and kept the child secret from his wife until last year.

• OH-Gov: In response to pressure to release his financials, John Kasich released his 2008 tax returns. Kasich earned $615K from now-kaput Lehman Brothers in 2008, including $183K base and a $432K bonus (but no “golden parachute” as Lehman Brothers collapsed). Oh, by the way, he also earned $265K as a Fox News commentator, $166K in speaking fees, $62K as an associate for Schottenstein Property Group, $45K as an Ohio State Univ. lecturer, $77K for being on the board of directors of two companies, and $122K in interest and dividends. Just your average teabagging Joe Lunchpail.

• HI-01: Charles Djou is trying to get some mileage out of the fact that neither Ed Case nor Colleen Hanabusa lives in HI-01. This kind of thing usually doesn’t matter much even in most other states, and seems to matter even less in Hawaii, though, where the island of Oahu gets split between the two districts and no one seems to care that Mazie Hirono lives in the 1st instead of HI-02.

• CO-04: Rep. Betsy Markey is near the top of most people’s vulnerable Dems lists, especially after her pro-HCR vote, but her cash haul may go along way toward allaying fears. She pulled in $505K, with $355K of that coming between Mar. 21 (the HCR vote) and Mar. 31. Her vote (plus being in Sarah Palin’s sorta-metaphorical crosshairs) seems to have helped, not hurt. Likely GOP opponent Cory Gardner raised only $75K last quarter after the HCR vote.

• ND-AL: One GOPer who is doing well on the fundraising front is state Rep. Rick Berg, who pulled in $483K in the first quarter. $330K of that came in the last 10 days of the quarter, although that seems to have more to do with his winning the state party’s endorsement rather than the HCR vote. Most of the rest of that took the form of $100K from his own pocket. Between this and the downdraft from John Hoeven at the top of the ballot, looks like Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s in for a real race this year.

• PA-06: Doug Pike picked up another labor endorsement, and it’s a big one: the AFL-CIO. They also backed Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, who’s being challenged by Corey O’Brien in the primary.

• RI-01: Here’s one more huge House Democratic fundraising haul, although this isn’t a race that the DCCC has been sweating too hard. Providence mayor David Cicilline pulled in a huge $725K (although some of that was checks re-written away from his mayoral fund to his newly-established House fund). His main Democratic rival, former state party chair William Lynch, raised $230K (including $100K of his own money).

• TX-17: Bill Flores pulled in an endorsement that will help in his GOP primary runoff against Rob Curnock, from perhaps the most unlikable man in the entirety of American politics, ex-Sen. Phil Gramm. In fact, that district may be conservative enough that it might still be a positive in the general.

• LA-LG: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne’s plan for an easy upgrade to the position of Lt. Governor (left vacant by Mitch Landrieu’s move to mayor of New Orleans) ran into a bit of a snag. He’s facing GOP primary opposition now from the state GOP chair, Roger Villere.

• CA-Init: Proposition 15 looks to be the only interesting initiative on the June primary ballot in California, and it lays some important groundwork for countering the flood of corporate money into elections. The Fair Elections Act, as it’s called, is a pilot program for public financing of state races; if passed, it’ll publicly fund the 2014 and 2018 Secretary of State races, which, if successful, could lead to a broader system.

• Fundraising: There are a number of other fundraising roundups today, courtesy of National Journal’s Reid Wilson and also the crew at TPM. Other highlights include Tom Campbell, Pat Toomey, Bob Dold!, Colleen Hanabusa, Bruce O’Donoghue, and various OR-Gov contestants.

• Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore continues his hot streak of dismantling the myth of the teabaggers, pointing to today’s Gallup/USA Today poll as more evidence that they’re nothing more than louder, angrier Republicans (who’d like access to a time machine). Only 7% say they’re Democrats, and while many say they’re independents, all evidence suggests they’re not from the center but those indies who think the GOP is too establishment, too liberal, or just too unsalvageable.

• RNC: You might remember several weeks ago the RNC lost a case in the D.C. District Court, squelching their desires for unlimited “soft money” contributions, which they felt they should be able to do in the wake of Citizens United. The RNC has decided to go ahead and appeal the case to the Supreme Court, although it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be decided in time for this year’s general election. (If you’re wondering why the case is bypassing the DC Circuit, McCain-Feingold allows challenges to it to leapfrog directly from the trial level to SCOTUS.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting tidbit: despite her early anti-Census fearmongering, Michele Bachmann’s district is actually well outpacing much of the nation on Census form return rates. Counties in her district have had an especially high return rate, ranging from 68-71% (compared with the current national average of 50%). Perhaps Republicans have decided it’s better in the long-term to, y’know, get conservative parts of the country to get accurately represented, rather than to try to appeal to the black-helicopters fringes, if Karl Rove cutting an ad urging Census participation is any indication.

• O2B: Finally, over at the Great Orange Satan, there’s an open call for nominations for the Orange to Blue program. Stop by and suggest some names of candidates who should get the netroots’ financial help this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):

John McCain (R-inc): 52

J.D. Hayworth (R): 37

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±5%)

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

John McCain (R-inc): 48

Undecided: 10

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34

John McCain (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 13

Rodney Glassman (D): 33

John McCain (R-inc): 52

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21

John McCain (R-inc): 57

Undecided: 22

Bruce Babbitt (D): 42

J.D. Hayworth (R): 43

Undecided: 15

Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36

J.D. Hayworth (R): 49

Undecided: 15

Rodney Glassman (D): 37

J.D. Hayworth (R): 48

Undecided: 15

Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22

J.D. Hayworth (R): 53

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Steve Singiser already got there first with the “good news! for John McCain!” joke, so I suppose I’ll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).

Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state’s most prominent Dem and not one who’s expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).

Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who’s scoping out the race; Walden doesn’t fare well, but that’s because she’s virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman’s at 23/15… compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).

RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen

The daily digest is so hunormous today that we had to CHOP IT IN HALF!

AR-Sen: Chris Cillizza’s incredibly annoying Mr. Rogers wallpaper tweets that Bill Halter raised $2 million in his first month on the trail.

AZ-Sen: This Roll Call piece has some interesting tidbits about the nascent Democratic (yes, Democratic) primary in the Arizona senate race. Tucson city councilman Rodney Glassman is all but running, and he has some personal wealth due to his family’s farming business. He also has the backing of Rep. Raul Grijalva (Glassman was once a Grijalva aide). Some other Dems, however, are talking up the potential candidacy of Nan Stockholm Walden, who is also wealthy and is a well-connected Democratic donor. The knock on Glassman is that he’s young and inexperienced; the knock on Walden is that she was a registered lobbyist for several years. Glassman says he’ll run no matter what Walden decides, and I think a primary here could actually be helpful if it stays clean.

On the GOP side of things, John McCain says he raised $2.2 million in the first quarter and has $4.5m on hand. Primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, meanwhile, seems like he hasn’t been doing quite so hot on the money front.

CA-Sen: A whiff of extra-special dumb: Carly Fiorina sent around an email to supporters describing Passover as a time to “break bread.” Of course, the one thing that Jews don’t eat on Passover is… bread. Trying to wiggle their way out of this one, a staffer tells TWI: “We meant all bread, leavened and unleavened, and matzo is just unleavened bread so that’s what we meant by that.” That still doesn’t work.

CT-Sen: GOP hopeful Linda McMahon is taking heat from opponent and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons for her $10,000 donation to the DCCC in 2006. Not only should this make McMahon suspect to Republicans, argues Simmons, but he seems to be tying that donation to the fact that he himself lost in 2006, perhaps nudged out the door by McMahon’s very own cash. (Considering Simmons came up just 83 votes short, he may have a point.)

FL-Sen: The joke is that when the New York Times finally gets to writing about a hitherto underground phenomenon (steampunk, miracle fruit, etc.), that’s the moment it becomes mainstream and therefore loses its cool. Marco Rubio’s “NYT moment” happened months ago, so anyone endorsing him at this late stage is about as cool as your mom using Facebook. Welcome to the club, Sen. Tom Coburn. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s old buddy, former FL GOP chair Jim Greer, is under criminal investigation for some sort of self-dealing.

KY-Sen: I think this is where Paulists probably part ways from teabaggers: Rand Paul thinks the government “shouldn’t be involved” in requiring people to wear seat belts. Not really sure ultra-libertarian whackness like this plays too well in most quarters. Please, please let this guy win the GOP primary. Incidentally, Paul says he’s raised $600K in the last quarter (lower than I would have thought), but also says he’s spent almost all of it. Apparently, though, he’s pre-paid for “the next six weeks of activity” (until the primary), perhaps locking in lower rates on things like TV ads.

MO-Sen: One last odd-n-end from PPP’s MO-Sen poll: Roy Blunt is under 50% against his unknown GOP primary challenger, Chuck Purgason – he leads 48-18. Purgason’s favorables are just 7-9 (not a typo), so obviously there’s a chunk of Republicans out there who just hate Blunt.

NC-Sen: Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt will endorse attorney Ken Lewis, who is seeking the Dem senate nomination. Gantt himself ran for the Senate twice, losing two close races to the unthinkably odious Jesse Helms. Meanwhile, GOP Sen. Richard Burr says he’s raised $1.4 million in the first quarter and is sitting on a $5.3 mil warchest. No word yet on any of the Dems.

TX-Sen: It looks we will have Kay Bailey Hutchison to kick around some more – for at least the next two years. She announced yesterday that she’ll serve out the remainder of her term, which ends in 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if she subsequently changed her mind (at least, after this November), but for now, that means TX-Sen comes off our “Races to Watch” list.

WI-Sen: Richie rich Terrence Wall says he’ll stay in the GOP primary even if ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson gets in. Wall had kind words for Thompson, and also thanked him for drawing Democratic fire, but it sounds like Wall wants to present himself as the “true conservative” option.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is the latest moron-American to jump onto the “healthcare reform is unconstitutional” bandwagon, agreeing wholeheartedly with a supporter who asked at a campaign event if she would “force your attorney general to file suit” against the legislation. (Of course, CA’s governor can do no such thing.) I really can’t wait until these idiots get punked out of court.

PA-Gov: Some fundraising numbers from some of the big players in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race – click the link for details. One of them, Dan Onorato, is up on the air with his first TV ads. No exact word on the size of the buy, but supposedly the ads are in “heavy rotation around the state,” which could cost $1 million.

When Governor Charlie Crist first entered the Florida Senate race he was the definite favorite to win the Senate race. However over the next several months Republicans turned against him because we wasn’t conservative enough. Now conservative challenger Rubio is beating Crist badly in the polls, and it looks impossible for him to win the nomination.

The same thing can happen to McCain. Sure, he’s beating Hayworth in the primary polls right now. But do you really think he will still be ahead on primary election day? I think the chance of Hayworth beating McCain in the primary is 50%.

Now here’s the worst case scenario that we want to avoid: Hayworth beats McCain in the primary and then wins the general because the Dems didn’t put forward a strong candidate.

The strongest Senate candidates are usually sitting Congressmen. Arizona has 5 Democratic Congressmen. I nominate Ed Pastor. The 06-08 Democrats: Giffords, Mitchell and Kilpatrick, need to hold down their marginal House seats, and with bright careers ahead they might not want to take the risk. That leaves Pastor and Grijalva. From what I have read, Pastor is more well-liked and highly-regarded by the public. Also being from Pheonix instead of outstate should help him, in a state where the largest city is more conservative than the other parts. Also, it’s not fair, but Ed Pastor’s name sounds anglo enough to not be threatening to most white voters.

Ed Pastor, is 7 years younger than John McCain. He’s been a Congressman for 20 years. He can beat Hayworth. He just needs to run a few commercials that go something like “J.D. Hayworth is a crazy extremist who supports {insert wacky policy}. I proudly represented Arizona in Congress for 20 years and now if you elect me as your Senator I promise to fight for {something popular in Arizona and somewhat liberal}”. Then we get a reliably liberal vote from Arizona for the next 6 years. (Thanks teabaggers!)

Does he want to take the risk? If you were in this situation would you take the risk? If you take the bet then there’s a 50% chace McCain wins the primary and you are forced to retire at 67, after a 20 year career in the House. Your successor will be a reliable liberal vote. You might even be able to run for one of the new House seats after redistricting in 2012. And there’s a 50% chance Hayworth wins the primary and you become a Senator. Now your liberal vote will be in the Senate, where it’s really needed.

But maybe he doesn’t want to commute to Washington until he’s 73.

He would have to make a decision pretty soon. Allow enough time to see if Hayworth gains momentum in the Republican primary (he already is), but enter early enough to clear the Democratic field. The filing deadline is May 26.

A strong Democrat can beat a teabagger or club-for-growther who beats an incumbent Republican in the primary, even in a right-leaning state or district. Just ask Bill Owens and Frank Kratovil. Think of how sweet it will be if teabaggers make Kendrick Meek a Senator from Florida, and Ed Pastor a Senator from Arizona.

PS. If there is a poll out there that I don’t know about showing JD. Hayworth beating Ed Pastor in a hypothetical matchup, don’t take it seriously, because at this point it would only reflect name recognition. It would be similar to a generic D vs generic R poll, and on Election Day Hayworth will do much worse than a generic R.

• CO-Sen: 50% is a totally arbitrary mark in the Colorado caucus straw poll, and doesn’t mean anything from a legal perspective, but Andrew Romanoff’s total has fallen below the magic mark as ballots keep getting counted. Romanoff’s at 49.9% to Michael Bennet’s 41.9% with 20 precincts left to be counted, which, in the battle of perceptions, takes a tiny bit of shiny luster off his victory.

• IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn’t the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver’s column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).

• MD-Gov: Prince George’s Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O’Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he’s popping up with the idea again today. (O’Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there’s been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor’s primary, where he’s aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead — to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package “manna from heaven.”

• AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn’t getting involved.

• GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird’s seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.

• ID-01: This is terribly disappointing… ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho’s filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.

• MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is “firmly a ‘no’ vote” on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here’s one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today… Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.

• NC-08: Tim d’Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D’Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for “coordinated personal attacks” in the wake of the incident.

• NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged “no” votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn’t bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They’re actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.

• Fundraising: Here’s a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren’t too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.