Tag: John McCain

• AZ-Sen: Sounds like this weekend’s GOP primary, full of barbs and genuinely angry potshots between J.D. Hayworth and John McCain had only one beneficiary: random teabagger Jim Deakin, who didn’t seem to suffer any collateral damge.

• DE-Sen: The Susan B. Anthony List has endorsed minor-league primary challenger Christine O’Donnell instead of the pro-choice Mike Castle in the GOP Senate primary in Delaware. Delaware isn’t exactly known for its large social conservative vote share, so it remains to be seen whether this changes anything.

• MT-Sen: There have been odd rumors that Gov. Brian Schweitzer, who’ll be looking for something to do starting in 2012, was considering a primary challenge to Max Baucus in 2014, motivated at least in part over their different approaches to health care reform. Schweitzer ruled out running for the Senate, though (also ruling out a possible 2012 seat-swap with Jon Tester, which also had been rumored). The possibility of what he’d do if the septuagenarian Baucus retired in 2014, though, didn’t seem to get broached.

• NH-Sen: One more addition to the Mama Grizzly corral, and it’s a big name who’s, well, a woman, but has some competition from her right: Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire. Interesting that Sarah Palin refudiated the more teabaggish challengers (Ovide Lamontagne and Jim Bender).

• CO-Gov: Scott McInnis is not dropping out and is still in it to lose it, he vows, pressure and polling notwithstanding. He will, however, be repaying that $300K to the foundation that employed him to write and not plagiarize his research papers for them. However, it seems some of his underlings are clearly seeing the handwriting on the wall. Three key staffers (his policy director, political director, and regional director) all announced they were leaving the campaign.

• MI-Gov: A Detroit News/WDIV poll (conducted by the Glengariff Group) finds, like everybody else, a very close race in the Republican primary. They have Mike Cox and Peter Hoekstra both at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Bouchard at 12, and Tom George at 2. They see a possible route for Snyder to win over undecideds, based on his low unfavorables (he’s at 36/8). Mike Bouchard also has a couple new endorsements to his name, although they’re from the spouses of two once-important politicians: the wives of ex-Gov. John Engler and ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham. The spouse endorsement, of course, is the time-honored method of boosting your behind-the-scenes friend while still not getting your hands dirty wasting political capital on a sure loss (see the Deval Patrick spousal endorsement of Mike Capuano in the MA-Sen primary).

• NE-Gov: After much speculation that the Dems were simply going to leave their ballot line blank and let Dave Heineman run unopposed to another gubernatorial term, they’ve found a willing victim candidate to fill the place left by Mark Lakers (who dropped out post-primary but pre-convention). It’s Mike Meister, a trial attorney who lost the 2002 Attorney General’s race.

• OH-Gov: John Kasich’s new ad is weak. I know, I know, I’m a partisan, but if this were a Democrat running this ad, I’d be pounding my head on the desk. His first TV spot starts out with him on the defensive, pointing out that he didn’t run Lehman Brothers, just profited handsomely off it.

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley ruffled some feathers over the weekend by ducking the decades-long traditional debate that opens the campaign season in this civic-minded state, held by the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association. Dudley said that he’d already had plans for a family vacation then, and Democrats predictably said that this was part of a bigger pattern of ducking issues. (Note: don’t piss off the people who buy ink by the bucket. Newspaper e-boards across the state, even the conservative ones, have been scornful.) Then he got really busted: his family vacation just happened to be combined with a visit with the RGA, and its many donors, at an event in Aspen, Colorado. Oregonians aren’t likely to begrudge him for a little downtime, but lying about what he’s doing… not so much.

• WI-Gov: This seems a little too convenient. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker’s staff just gave a no-bid contract for emergency structural engineering inspections to Graef-USA… a contractor that just happens to be a major Walker campaign contributor.

• MI-13: There are two new polls that look at the Democratic primary in the 13th, and both give a small lead to Hansen Clarke, over Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. Clarke leads 38-30 in the Detroit News/WDIV poll, and Clarke leads 44-31 in an EPIC-MRA poll released last week. That’s on top of a third poll from last week that we already mentioned that also had a Clarke lead, so I’m sensing a pattern here. There’s a handful of other candidates, but they’re only polling in low single digits… it seems like having only one credible challenger (Clarke, a termed-out state Senator) to Kilpatrick, instead of two like in 2008, is the key to winning the race.

• Legislatures: There are two different stories out today looking at the lay of the land in two legislative chambers that seem among the likeliest to flip to Republican control this year: the Iowa State House, and the Pennsylvania State House, with mentions of some of the most competitive seats in each case.

• NRCC: With the House GOP pretty much assured of gaining a significant number of seats this year, it’s been a while since we’ve done one of these. But could it be time for another… Pete Sessions Deathwatch®? Texas GOPer Tom Pauken, a Rick Perry ally who was state party chair in the 1990s, has been talking Sessions down, saying he’s “not up to the job” and he should be replaced by “a smart conservative who knows what needs to be done.” That news comes on a day when NRCC staff are busy doing damage control, mopping up behind Sessions after his comments that “we need to go back to the exact same agenda” of the Bush years.

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 34%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 43 53%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 29%, Sean Parnell (R-inc) 57%

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 36%, Ralph Samuels (R) 48%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 30%, Ralph Samuels (R) 49%

• AK-Gov: Ethan Berkowitz (D) 38%, Bill Walker (R) 46%

• AK-Gov: Hollis French (D) 32%, Bill Walker (R) 50%

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 38%, Pat Toomey (R) 45%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 48%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 45%, Mark Neumann (R) 43%

Also a must read today: a new piece from Nate Silver makes the point that “Hey, YouGov’s internet-only polling isn’t that methodologically bad,” but that’s by way of comparing it to Rasmussen’s sampling techniques, which (no shock to SSP readers) aren’t likely to produce a very accurate cross-section of the population.

• Election Results: No big surprises last night in the Alabama runoffs. Robert Bentley, who’d had the edge in the one public poll shortly before the runoff, beat Bradley Byrne in the gubernatorial GOP runoff, 56-44; he and Ron Sparks are now promising each other a positive, issues-oriented race. (Assorted wonks are trying to figure out today if Bentley, friendly – or at least friendlier – with the AEA, was helped along by Democratic crossover votes… and the answer appears to be no, not really.) In the GOP runoff in AL-02, Mike Barber is sending his gathered armies back home after losing by a 60-40 margin to Martha Roby. In the Dem runoff in AL-07, Terri Sewell beat Shelia Smoot 55-45, and is almost certain to succeed Artur Davis. Finally, the closest race of the night was the GOP Agriculture Commissioner runoff, where Dale Peterson-powered John McMillan sent Dorman Grace back to his chicken farm, 52-48.

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov (pdf): A new Rocky Mountain poll from the Behavior Research Center finds [insert usual “good news” joke here]. John McCain leads J.D. Hayworth (seeming DOA after the free-grant-money thing) in the GOP primary 64-19, with 5 for someone named Jim Deakin. They also polled the now-irrelevant gubernatorial primary, finding Jan Brewer at 57, with 12 for Owen Buz Mills and 9 for Dean Martin (both of whom have dropped out since the poll’s completion). Matthew Jatte remains in the primary, but he polled at “less than 1%.”

• FL-Sen: Here’s some good news for Kendrick Meek, who seems to be counting on a last minute Democratic surge: Bill Clinton will be appearing on his behalf in August, to stump for him in August. Dem primary rival Jeff Greene has some less good news: he just lost his campaign manager Josh Morrow. (It’s unclear whether he fled, or was pushed.) The St. Petersburg Times has an interesting profile of Greene today, too, that delves below the headline-grabbing superficial weirdnesses.

• KS-Sen: Tancredo sez: get a brain, Moran! (No, I’m never going to get tired of that joke.) The loudmouthed ex-Rep., last seen torpedoing ally Ken Buck, today barged back into the Kansas GOP Senate primary and admitted he had gotten it all wrong. He withdrew his earlier backing for Rep. Jerry Moran and switched over to Rep. Todd Tiahrt instead, saying that Moran had “deceived him” on his apparently inadequate hatred for teh brown people. In other news, did you know there was actually a third guy running in the primary, and he wasn’t just Some Dude® but a former state Attorney General? Of course, he was AG from the years 1965 to 1969 Anno Domini, so you could be forgiven for not remembering Robert Londerholm. At any rate, Londerholm dropped out of the race today.

• LA-Sen: Bobby Jindal had previously hedged on his support for David Vitter, showing up at some fundraising events but never actually going so far as to say that he endorsed him. That’s going to be more of an issue now that Vitter has some serious primary opposition from Chet Traylor, and Jindal is doubling down on his neutrality, saying he’s not focused on the race. At least Vitter continues to have the NRSC in his corner.

• NC-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with another poll in NC-Sen, on behalf of WRAL. Richard Burr continues to have a lead over Elaine Marshall, currently at 46-36, with 6 to Libertarian Mike Beitler. Burr’s favorables are 28/27 (with 23 neutral and 22 no opinion), while Marshall is at 25/12 (with 28 neutral and 35 no opinion), so usual caveats at Marshall’s room to grow apply. Interestingly, SurveyUSA followed their WA-Sen lead and added a cellphone oversample, which in various permutations had little effect on the toplines.

• NV-Sen: No polling memo to link to, at least not yet, but Jon Ralston calls our attention to a new poll from Dem pollster Fairbanks Maslin on behalf of the Patriot Majority. If it’s a quasi-internal, you can probably guess where we’re going with this… it actually has Harry Reid in the lead, over Sharron Angle 44-40. Both Reid (45/52) and Angle (40/41) have net-negative favorables, though.

• FL-Gov: Rick Scott lost a court battle (though the war over the Millionaire’s Amendment is no doubt not over, though). A federal district court judge denied Scott’s request for an injunction against Florida’s campaign finance law, which would give a truckload of money to the near-broke Bill McCollum because of Scott’s aggressive self-funding.

• MI-Gov: There are two separate polls of the Michigan GOP gubernatorial primary floating around today. One is a public poll from Mitchell Research & Communications; it sees a flat-out three-way tie between Mike Cox, Peter Hoekstra, and Rick Snyder, each of them at 18, with Mike Bouchard at 9 and Tom George at 2. Not quite content with that, Bouchard rolled out an internal poll (from McLaughlin & Associates) which, in marked contrast with, well, every other poll, had Bouchard tied for the lead. His poll has him and Hoekstra at 19, with Cox at 16, Snyder at 12, and George at 3. Mitchell also has numbers from the Dem primary, where they find Andy Dillon leading Virg Bernero 35-15.

• RI-Gov: This seems out of the blue, although he had been lagging in fundraising and underperforming in the polls: Democratic AG Patrick Lynch will be dropping out of the gubernatorial primary, effective tomorrow. That leaves state Treasurer Frank Caprio as de facto Dem nominee, sparing him a primary battle with the more liberal Lynch. It’s the day before nominating papers are due, so maybe he’ll re-up for more AGing. The main question now seems to be positioning for the general election… maybe most notably whether independent ex-GOP ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee finds himself running to the left of the generally moderate Caprio.

• WA-08: Via press release, we have fundraising numbers from Suzan DelBene, who’s raising strongly despite little netroots interest so far. She raised $378K last quarter, and is sitting on $1.04 million CoH. She’s raised $1.65 million over the cycle.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 49%, Carly Fiorina (R) 42%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 45%, Roy Blunt (R) 47%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 37%, Kelly Ayotte (R) 49%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 40%, Ovide Lamontagne (R) 43%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 38%, Bill Binnie (R) 49%

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes (D) 39%, Jim Bender (R) 43%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 36%, Brian Sandoval (R) 57%

AZ-Sen: Props to the Hotline’s Sean Sullivan – and to the McCain campaign! Thanks to them, we know that the size of J.D. Hayworth’s first ad buy is an amazing $2,100 – and that “the ad will only run on Fox News in Tucson for the entire month of July.” This is incredibly pathetic, and it’s really too bad that this Matthew Lesko wannabe is going nowhere. A McCain flack gets in a good dig:

“That’s actually less than he spent on bumper stickers and lapel pins in the first month-and-a-half of his campaign. Sounds like Hayworth really could use some of that free government money he hawked in his infomercial.”

CO-Sen: Jane Norton says she raised $900K in Q2 and has $600K on hand. Her primary against Ken Buck (who hasn’t released any numbers yet) is on August 10th.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek raised another million bucks in Q2, essentially the same as his hauls in each of the previous two quarters. He has about $4 million on hand – which, as Shira Toeplitz points out, is less than the $5 mil that zillionaire asshole Jeff Greene has already spent on the race.

IN-Sen, MO-08: Speaking of bullshit ad buys, Politico’s Dave Catanese takes a good close look at several attempts to “earn media” by spending just a few bucks on the airwaves. Catanese’s piece includes that quip about Hayworth cited above, and also some digs at Brad Ellsworth (IN-Sen) and Tommy Sowers (MO-08) for their less-than-impressive ad time purchases. A consultant for Dan Coats says that Ellsworth’s buy is “very light and brief – not statewide – and about evenly split between cable and broadcast.” Meanwhile, Sowers bought “just $6,400 in air time, with most of that on cable television in two counties.”

SC-Sen: Just click the link. A mouth-agape must-read.

FL-Gov: Zillionaire whacko Rick Scott is challenging Florida’s version of the “millionaire’s amendment,” which provides matching funds to candidates whose opponents exceed a certain spending cap – in this case, a pretty portly $25 million. You may recall that Crazy Jack Davis successfully challenged the federal millionaire’s amendment before the Supreme Court in 2008, and that the SCOTUS blocked Arizona from distributing matching funds last month, so I’d give Scott decent odds of prevailing.

GA-10 (via email): Russell Edwards (no, I’d never heard of him either) is a Democrat running against Rep. Paul Broun in this dark red 61% McCain district. Still, he managed to raised just over $100K (from “nearly 500 individual donors”) in the second quarter, which seems pretty good for a guy running in these circumstances.

ID-01: Rep. Walt Minnick kicked some fundraising ass last quarter, pulling in $410K and leaving him with $1.1 mil on-hand. Anyone care to guess what GOPer Raul Labrador will show?

SC-02: The otherwise seemingly invisible Rob Miller will be in DC today, doing some relatively low-dollar fundraisers. But it’s not like the guy – who lucked into millions thanks to Joe Wilson’s undying outburst – is really hurting for money (he had $1.7 mil on hand as of Q1). No word on his Q2 haul as of yet, though.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth may have sunk his own ship, not so much with his history of shilling for free-grant-money scams but with his flip response (“Buyer beware!”) when the accusations first came to light. Sensing some traction on the issue, Team McCain is out with a second ad on the topic, this time outright calling Hayworth a “huckster.”

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is out with his first TV ad in his Senate campaign; it’s a feel-good intro spot that seems mostly oriented toward the primary audience. It’s the story of a humble high school teacher and university president, with no mention of how he just happened to be the House minority whip (or even a Republican). Blunt is very likely to prevail against teabagging state Sen. Chuck Purgason in the primary (who just got the coveted endorsement of Samuel Wurzelbacher), but would naturally prefer a convincing margin.

• NV-Sen: You know the best way to make sure that people don’t go back and look at all the ridiculous things that you said earlier? Don’t jump up and down saying “OMG! Don’t look at those ridiculous things I said earlier!” Well, that’s what Sharron Angle is doing, having scrubbed her website of all the ridiculous things she said back in the GOP primary as part of having “softened” (her words) her image, but having found Harry Reid’s campaign preserving her old website as part of his website (ah, the wonders of the cache…). They’ve now issued a cease-and-desist letter, ordering Reid to stop publishing the ridiculous things she said earlier. Meanwhile, Angle (last seen comparing herself to Abraham Lincoln) is facing a new problem: the possibility that the NRA (unenthused about the much-less-gun-friendly Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as majority leader) might actually endorse Harry Reid.

• OH-Sen: Jennifer Brunner reflects back on her Senate primary campaign, with no regrets about her running a shoestring-budget, ground-game-oriented campaign, and also with a few of the same complaints (of behind-the-scenes fundraising blackballing, for which she still offers no proof).

• SC-Sen: Linda Ketner seems like a savvy businesswoman, and the possibility of an independent Senate bid to save SC Dems from Alvin Greene probably didn’t strike her as a good investment. The former SC-01 candidate made it official over the weekend that she wouldn’t run, telling her petition-gathering supporters to stand down.

• WV-Sen: Following the West Virginia story is a bit like watching a game of ping-pong, because today the story has rapidly bounced back to the likelihood of there being a special election this year to replace Robert Byrd after all. SoS Natalie Tennant, who interpreted the law to say that there won’t be an election until 2012, is now saying that’s, practically speaking, too long and that the legislature should take that up in a special session this year. Of course, the decision to call a special session is up to Gov. Joe Manchin, the likely eventual occupant of that seat, and it’s a question of what timing he thinks is best for him, perception-wise.

Interestingly, there’s increasing pressure from both labor (AFL-CIO, UMW) and business (Chamber of Commerce) for Manchin to get it over with and appoint himself to the seat right away rather than using a seat-warmer, suggesting that the perception wouldn’t be that bad (compared with many other states, where governors appointing themselves to the Senate has frequently backfired catastrophically). Everybody in West Virginia seems to know how their bread is buttered, and that’s facilitated by getting Manchin in there as quick as possible so he can start accruing seniority. The state GOP is moving toward a lawsuit to compel a special election this year, but that may not be necessary if all the state’s establishment is already on board with the idea.

• GA-Gov: Insider Advantage is out with new polls of the Republican Georgia gubernatorial primary, and it offers quite a surprise: ex-SoS Karen Handel has shot into a tie with Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, who has had a significant lead for most of this cycle. Handel and Oxendine are both at 18, with ex-Rep. Nathan Deal at 12, and state Sen. Eric Johnson (who’s hitting the TV airwaves to attempt a late move) at 8. There may be two factors at work here: one, the increasing public perception that Oxendine is an ethically-challenged sleaze (the Handel camp has taken to calling him “the Rod Blagojevich of Georgia politics), and two, an endorsement for Handel from unusual quarters — Arizona’s Jan Brewer (a fellow former SoS), suddenly promoted from dead-woman-walking to right-wing heroine after her signing of that state’s immigrant-bashing law — that Ed Kilgore thinks have some of the same galvanizing effect as Sarah Palin’s embrace of Nikki Haley in South Carolina.

• NE-Gov: There’s a lot of backstory behind the strange Mark Lakers dropout that we didn’t know about until after he bailed out. It turns out that in May, there was a brouhaha after a number of people were listed as Lakers contributors on his campaign finance reports, some of whom weren’t even Lakers supporters at all. This led to calls in June from several prominent Democrats (including a former state party chair) for Lakers to get out of the race, and with his fundraising subsequently stymied (leaving him with $3,293 cash on hand on June 23), he seemed to have no choice but to bail. A replacement can be picked at the state Democratic convention, July 23 to 25.

• TX-Gov: The Supreme Court of Texas (can I just abbreviate that as SCOTex?) has given the Greens a lifeline, and by extension, the Republicans. (Not really a coincidence, seeing as the Texas Supreme Court is a partisan-elected, Republican-controlled body.) They blocked a lower court’s order that the Greens be kept off the ballot, letting them meet the certification deadline, although it left open the possibility that they will remove the Greens from the ballot later. The controversy, you’ll recall, is over whether the Greens’ petition drive was funded by out-of-state corporate money, an illegal in-kind contribution.

• FL-24: Craig Miller, the rich guy running against two underfunded elected officials in the GOP primary, has the lead according to his own internal poll (conducted by McLaughlin & Assocs.). Miller is at 17, with state Rep. Sandy Adams at 11, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel (who had been considered a good get when she got into the race) registering all of 3. The winner faces off against Democratic freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in the Orlando ‘burbs.

• KY-06: Attorney Andy Barr, who’s running against Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler in the 6th, is enduring some bad PR over his membership in a Lexington-area country club that, until last year, had never had a black member. His response? It’s “not an issue,” as he’s “a member of a lot of organizations.” (As an aside, that first member will be familiar to NBA history fans: Sam Bowie, the consensus pick as the worst draft disaster in human history.)

• NY-01: It’s usually not good news when your entire advisory infrastructure up and quits all at once, but that’s what happened in the campaign of Chris Cox, the Richard Nixon grandson and, more importantly, (state party chair) Ed Cox son who’s running a carpetbaggery campaign to represent the Hamptons. Much of the former McCain operation (John Weaver, Mark Salter, etc.) was working for Cox, but left en masse last week. Cox still gathering petitions to get on the GOP ballot (due in five days), so it’ll be interesting to see if that even happens now.

• OH-17: Trafican’t! (A few other wags have already used that joke today, so don’t credit me for it.) Ex-Rep. (and ex-con) Jim Traficant’s comeback bid in the 17th came to an ignominious end today, after it was revealed that he didn’t have enough signatures to petition onto the ballot as an independent, as over 1,000 of the 3,138 signatures he turned in were invalid. Beam him up, Scotty. (I’m not the first to make that joke either, sorry.)

• TN-08: It’s remarkable that the rural, dirt-poor, cheap-media-markets 8th is turning into one of the highest-dollar House races in the whole country. State Sen. Roy Herron, the likely Democratic nominee, had another big quarter, pulling in $350K over the last three months, which gives him $1.2 million CoH banked while the GOPers hammer each other.

• WI-07: The Democratic primary field was once again cleared for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the open seat race in the 7th to replace retiring Rep. David Obey. Joe Reasbeck (on the Some Dude end of the spectrum and not likely to give Lassa much trouble anyway) dropped out, citing family concerns. She’ll likely face Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy, who does still face a contested primary.

• Redistricting: Redistricting in Florida in 2012 is dependent on what happens with the two Fair Districts initiatives (Amendments 5 and 6) on the ballot in November this year, which would limit the Republican-held legislature’s ability to gerrymander to their liking. (Unless Amendment 7, backed by a coalition of Republicans and minority Democrats, also passes, which would largely neuter 5 and 6.) The Orlando Sentinel looks at some of the difficulty the GOP may have with drawing favorable maps amidst burgeoning population growth in central Florida even if they can gerrymander at will, though; Hispanic populations there have been growing and Democrats have moved into a registration advantage in many areas.

• AZ-Sen: J.D. Hayworth is still trying to spin away his shilling for free-grant-money seminars, saying that, in his defense, those grants really do exist. No, they don’t, say the folks at Grants.gov, who would be the ones to know. Meanwhile, the Hayworth camp is attacking John McCain for his association with Republican bundler and convicted Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein, a guy McCain has claimed not to know. The Hayworth camp unveiled video of McCain and Rothstein together at a fundraiser, while the McCain camp answers that he can’t be responsible for remembering every single donor he met over the course of a presidential bid.

• KS-Sen: Here’s an interesting split in the endorsements of the various right-wingers jetting around the country playing kingmaker. You might recall that Sarah Palin recently added Todd Tiahrt to her list of Mama Grizzlies in the Kansas GOP Senate primary; today comes news that Jim DeMint will be stumping on behalf of rival Jerry Moran.

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon seems to finally realize he’s been handed a prime opportunity to go on the offensive, in David Vitter’s hiring and later defending of his repeatedly in-trouble-with-the-law aide Brent Furer. Melancon is now publicly asking why he “protected” Furer for two years.

• NH-Sen: You’ve gotta wonder about the sanity of a candidate, lagging in the polls and trying to capture Tea Party support, who looks at Dale Peterson and Rick Barber’s viral video notoriety and thinks “Hey, that could be me!” Jim Bender, the distant fourth-wheel in the New Hampshire GOP primary, is out with a bizarre new ad that involves a crazed-looking, frosting-covered Uncle Sam actor devouring cake slices decorated like banks and cars.

• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill, currently lying in the middle of the street with RGA tire tracks all over his back, is trying to get back up on his feet. He’s out with a second TV ad (his first one was back in January), a positive spot focusing on his time as state Treasurer.

• MD-Gov (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan just keeps churning out gubernatorial polls; while most of them have seemed right on the mark, this one’s a little surprising. They find Republican Bob Ehrlich leading Dem incumbent Martin O’Malley 46-43. While O’Malley’s approvals are plausible for a current incumbent (41/45), the fact that they have Ehrlich, who got bounced out of office in 2006, at 51/32, is perplexing. O’Malley did get one piece of welcome news today, though: you might remember that he was facing a quixotic but not entirely trivial primary challenge from the right from former state Del. George Owings. Owings dropped out of the race today, citing health problems.

• NE-Gov: Via press release, we’ve just learned that businessman Mark Lakers, the Democratic nominee, is dropping out of the gubernatorial race. He cites fundraising woes and family unhappiness in his decision. Apparently, there’s a replacement candidate ready to be substituted by the state Dems (the uneventful primary was held May 11), although no word yet on who that is. We’ll update with a link once we know more.

• NM-Gov: Fundraising numbers in New Mexico are out, courtesy of Heath Haussamen. It was a strong reporting period for GOPer Susana Martinez, who raised $611K, compared with Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, who banked $188K. You might think the disparity has to do with Martinez facing a major primary while Denish was uncontested, but Denish actually spent more than Martinez in that same period. Denish still has a huge cash on hand disparity: $2.2 million, compared with $300K for Martinez. (Expect to see a whole lotta RGA money flowing Martinez’s way, though.)

• WI-Gov: Here’s a surprising endorsement for Milwaukee mayor and Democratic candidate Tom Barrett: he got the backing of NYC mayor and well-known independent Michael Bloomberg. Apparently the two know each other from the big-city mayors community, and Bloomberg is a fan of Barrett’s attempts to stop gun violence.

• TN-08: The state GOP chairman had to step in, weary-parent-style, to the squabble between Stephen Fincher and Ron Kirkland, saying that he loves them an equal amount. Actually, Chris Devaney said that they’re both, as far as he knows, bona fide Republicans. (No mention of the primary field’s red-headed step-child, George Flinn?) Today the battle between Fincher and Kirkland has already moved on to TARP, each trying to hang it around each other’s necks despite neither one having voted for it. For fans who want more of this decidedly drama-filled primary, Reid Wilson had a thorough history of the race yesterday, focusing on why the NRCC has buddied up with Fincher so much.

• MI-St. Sen.: We always like to see state-based bloggers handicapping their state legislative races, as that’s too far down in the weeds for even us know-it-alls at SSP to make educated guesses. Michigan Liberal’s pbratt looks at the Michigan Senate – one of the few places where we’re on the offensive this cycle, thanks to a whole lot of open seats – and foresees Dems falling just short, with 20-18 Republican control of the chamber after November.

• DGA: Also via press release, we’ve just gotten fundraising numbers from the DGA. While they aren’t in the same league as the RGA (who’ve doubled up on the DGA in terms of both this quarter and cash on hand), it shows they’re revving up for a huge gubernatorial year, too, with $9.1 million in the second quarter and $22 million CoH.

• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s no shortage of pollsters looking at California, and now Canadian firm Ipsos (on behalf of Reuters) piles on. They find, like most pollsters, single-digits leads for the Democrats in both major races: Jerry Brown leads Meg Whitman 45-39 in the gubernatorial racer, while Barbara Boxer leads Carly Fiorina 45-41. They also find the proposed ballot initiative legalizing marijuana failing but by a close margin, 48-50.

• CO-Sen: The endorsement that seemed to blow everyone away yesterday was Bill Clinton’s unexpected backing of Andrew Romanoff, who’s mounting a primary challenge to appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the Senate primary. It may not be that surprising, though, given Clinton’s willingness to go to bat for lost causes who backed Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in 2008, which Romanoff did. It sounds like Clinton’s intervention will be limited to fundraising e-mails, though, rather than stumping with Romanoff.

• FL-Sen: The criminal case against former state GOP party chair Jim Greer is interesting enough on its own. But it could get even more interesting if Charlie Crist gets called to testify as a witness, which could happen, as his name is on a list of potential witnesses that’s being circulated.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk, having offered some weak excuses (“I wasn’t thinking”) at his public appearance yesterday to apologize for his resume embellishments, tried to get back on the offensive against Alexi Giannoulias, rolling out two ads. That includes one that tries to get back to the whole “mob banker” meme. Giannoulias, however, isn’t letting the resume flummery issue die; he rolled out his own attack ad today keeping Kirk’s misrememberments front and center.

• KY-Sen: Charming: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, who narrowly lost the Democratic primary to AG Jack Conway, isn’t going to endorse anyone in the Senate race. Also, he said he isn’t planning to run for Governor next year. (Steve Beshear is running for re-election, but dropped Mongiardo from the ticket in favor of Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson, perhaps assuming that Mongo would already be Senator by 2011.)

• NC-Sen (pdf): SurveyUSA (6/23-24, likely voters):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50

Mike Beitler (L): 6

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4%)

We haven’t been intentionally ignoring this poll from last weekend, just kept dropping the ball on getting it onto the front page. At any rate, this is one of those weird instances where Rasmussen sees a better race for the Dems than does SurveyUSA, although that may have to do with Rasmussen’s odd tendency to see huge post-primary bounces.

• NV-Sen: Last night’s title heavyweight bout was between Sharron Angle and Jon Ralston on Ralston’s public affairs TV show. Angle tried to emphasize her softer side, walking back earlier vague threats about armed insurrection, but still voiced support for Social Security phaseout and, maybe even more fatal for Nevada, support for the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site.

• WV-Sen: Don’t get too comfortable in assuming that the West Virginia election to replace Robert Byrd won’t be held until 2012. There are vague rumblings that, despite the SoS’s decision, there might be a legislative special session this year to move the election date to November 2010. Bear in mind, though, that Dems thoroughly control the legislature so they’d be doing it only if they thought there was an advantage to doing it now instead of ’12. As Aaron Blake points out, Joe Manchin is not only the heir apparent to the Senate seat but also the Governor, who has the power to move the special session agenda, so the whole thing is really up to him. (Manchin might figure his heavy popularity is more of an advantage in a shortened election season, instead of a multi-year ramp-up to 2012.) At any rate, Manchin seems content to take his time, wanting to wait until after Byrd’s funeral next week to make any moves.

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton is flying in the face of conventional wisdom (conventional wisdom that ignores the success of recent pro-tax ballot measures in Oregon and freakin’ Arizona) by making tax increases for the wealthy a cornerstone of his gubernatorial campaign. Dayton also just landed endorsements from 2006 gubernatorial candidates Mike Hatch, and ex-Rep. Bill Luther.

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, the gift that just keeps on giving. Labrador, who just had to walk back criticisms of John Boehner, is now facing reports that he recently tore into John McCain at a pre-primary appearance and voiced his support for J.D. Hayworth. On a related note, the NRCC just promoted 16 more Young Guns to the top tier of their fundraising pyramid, but despite having won the primary here, Labrador‘s name is still nowhere to be seen on the list.

• KS-04: Here’s some trouble for Wink Hartman, the businessman competing with Mike Pompeo for the GOP nomination in this Todd Tiahrt-held open seat. Pompeo’s camp is making hay out of reports that Hartman, whom they’ve accused of carpetbagging in from Florida, is still taking a valuable homestead exemption on his expensive house in Florida, which would require that to be his primary residence.

• LA-02: State Rep. Cedric Richmond seems to have a big advantage in his quest to win the Democratic nomination in the 2nd; he’s released an internal poll taken by Zata|3 (which you might remember polling the Arkansas primaries on behalf of Arkansas Business Journal), giving him a 53-13 lead over fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta. No general election numbers for the battle against Republican Rep. Joe Cao were released.

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello is out with what might get my vote for the best candidate TV ad of the cycle so far. (Well, the best ad not featuring Dale Peterson, I suppose.) It’s attention-grabbing and light-hearted enough to break through the clutter, while still staying on-message on the issue of jobs.

• WA-02: Talk about an utter polling fail. John Koster, the Republican challenger to Rep. Rick Larsen, is touting a poll with a lead over Larsen but isn’t giving the name of the pollster or even the specific numbers (saying he’s “in the neighborhood of 53 to 47 percent” – wow… no undecideds?). Larsen’s camp is saying the poll is crap, and they have a little more than the usual platitudes to back that up: Larsen was actually one of the persons polled, and he helpfully jotted down all 12 questions the poll asked. One of them identified Larsen as… a Republican.

• DCCC: Here’s some good news; now that they’re down to the final day of the quarter, the DCCC is actively twisting some arms to get recalcitrant House Dems to cough up their DCCC dues. So far, through the end of last month, House Dems have given $19.5 million over the cycle to the DCCC… but deadbeats still abound.

• AZ-Sen (pdf): Magellan is out with a poll of the Republican Senate primary, and finds (everybody say it with me now… 3… 2… 1…) good news! for John McCain! McCain leads J.D. Hayworth 52-29. The sample was taken on Tuesday, post-reveal of Hayworth’s Matthew Lesko-style free-money shilling.

• CO-Sen: Americans for Job Security, the mysterious conservative group who poured a lot of money into anti-Bill Halter ads in the Arkansas primary, have surfaced again, and this time they’re actually pro- somebody. They’re up with ads in Colorado pushing Weld Co. Ken Buck, who’s poised to knock off NRSC-touted Jane Norton in the GOP Senate primary.

• FL-Sen: An important-sounding behind-the-scenes Democrat has gotten on board the Charlie Crist campaign. Jeff Lieser, who was the finance director for Alex Sink’s successful 2006 CFO campaign, is going to be heading up Crist’s “Democratic fundraising efforts.”

• MO-Sen: Barack Obama will be doing a fundraiser with Robin Carnahan in Kansas City on July 8. Carnahan hid under a pile of coats when Obama was in Missouri last winter, so it’s good to see her changing her tune.

• AL-Gov: Robert Bentley, the state legislator who surprised many by squeaking into the GOP gubernatorial runoff, is picking up a key Tim James backer. Ex-Rep. Sonny Callahan, who represented AL-01 for decades, switched his backing to Bentley yesterday.

• AZ-Gov: The NRA really does seem to love its incumbents, as they’ve often been accused. The NRA weighed in to the GOP gubernatorial primary, endorsing appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. The only reason that’s a surprise is because her biggest rival is self-funding businessman Owen Buz Mills, who also happens to be on the NRA’s board of directors and who owns a shooting range.

• IA-Gov: Terry Branstad went with a relative unknown for his running mate, state Sen. Kim Reynolds, rather than one of the parade of recent losers whose names had been floated (Jeff Lamberti, Jim Gibbons, Rod Roberts). Perhaps most significantly, he didn’t pick GOP primary runner-up and social conservative extraordinaire Bob Vander Plaats, so now all eyes are on BVP to see whether he follows through with vague threats to run an independent candidacy. (While socially conservative personally, Reynolds isn’t known for running with the social conservative crowd.)

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero is pretty universally considered the “labor” candidate in the Dem primary in the Michigan governor’s race, but rival Andy Dillon just got the backing of a big-time union: the statewide Teamsters. Bernero has the backing of the AFL-CIO (which, significantly for Michigan, includes the UAW); while they aren’t hitting the airwaves on Bernero’s behalf (at least not yet), they are gearing up for a large ground campaign.

• OR-Gov, OR-Sen: It looks like the Oregon gubernatorial race is going to be a close one (like New Mexico, this is shaping up to be a situation where what seemed like an easy race is turning into a battle because the outgoing Dem incumbent’s unpopularity is rubbing off on the expected successor). Local pollsters Davis, Hibbitts, and Midghall, on behalf of the Portland Tribune, find the race a dead heat, at a 41-41 tie between John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley (with 6 going to minor party candidates). Tim Hibbitts is the go-to pollster in Oregon; the upside, I suppose, is that it’s good for Dems to realize now they’re going to need to fight this one hard, rather than realizing it in October after months of complacency. While the Gov. numbers here are closely in line with Rasmussen, the Senate numbers certainly aren’t: they find Ron Wyden leading Jim Huffman by a much more comfortable margin of 50-32.

• TX-Gov: Bill White got a big endorsement from Bill Clinton (although there’s no word yet if Clinton will stump in Texas on White’s behalf, which would be huge). Former Houston mayor White was also a Dept. of Energy official in the Clinton administration.

• LA-02: You might recall some sketchily-sourced information from a few days ago that a couple Democrats were considering launching independent bids in the 2nd, where a high-profile spoiler may be the only hope for another term for GOP freshman Rep. Joe Cao. Well, it seems like there’s some truth to the story, inasmuch as the person most likely to be affected by that, state Rep. Cedric Richmond (the likeliest Dem nominee here), is calling attention to the situation now. He’s accusing Republicans of a “South Carolina-style political ploy by convincing black candidates to run as independents.”

• MI-07: Although ex-Rep. Tim Walberg has the social conservative cred by the bushelful, he didn’t get an endorsement from Catholic Families for America. They instead backed his GOP primary rival, Brian Rooney. The Rooney backing makes sense, though, when you recall that Rooney is an attorney for the Thomas More Law Center, the Michigan-based nonprofit that’s a frequent filer of amicus briefs and bills itself as “Christianity’s answer to the ACLU.” The Center was founded by Domino’s Pizza baron Tom Monaghan, whose other attempts to mix ultra-conservative Catholicism and the law have included Ave Maria School of Law.

• WATN?: I had absolutely no idea that retiring Rep. Henry Brown was actually interested in demoting himself instead of leaving the political game altogether, but it turns out that, rather than take up golf or shuffleboard like a normal 74-year-old, he decided to run for the Board of Supervisors in Berkeley County (in Charleston’s suburbs). Here’s where it gets really pathetic… he didn’t even win that race. He got 44% of the vote on Tuesday in the GOP runoff (although in his sort-of defense, he was running against an incumbent).

• History: Here’s a very interesting article from Larry Sabato’s henchman Rhodes Cook, on why 2010 won’t be 1994. His gradation of “blue,” “purple,” and “red” districts is a little reductive, but it’s a nice look at how Democrats have somewhat less exposure in general this year. And if you’re looking for some amusing trivia, Univ. of Minnesota’s Smart Politics has a captivating look at which states have the most (South Carolina) and the fewest (Alaska by #, Idaho by %) governors who were born in-state.

This is the first part of three posts analyzing the congressional districts President Barack Obama underperformed in.

Congressional Districts

By most accounts, Senator Barack Obama dominated the 2008 presidential  election. He won an electoral landslide, winning Republican-leaning states such as Indiana and North Carolina which his campaign targeted. Compared to 2004, the nation shifted almost ten points more Democratic.

Mr. Obama improved from Senator John Kerry’s performance almost everywhere. More than 90% of congressional districts voted more Democratic than in 2004. Yet this means that at least several dozen congressional districts were more friendly to Mr. Kerry than the Illinois Senator. I have mapped these districts below:

More below.

(Click here for a much better view of the map).

There is a clear pattern here: Republican-shifting congressional districts are found along a diagonal line stretching from Louisiana and Oklahoma to southeastern Pennsylvania, roughly along the Appalachian mountains. This is not exactly startling news; ever since the primaries, Mr. Obama’s weakness in these regions has been well-noted. The five states that shifted Republican from 2004 – Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and West Virginia – are all located here.

The exceptions to this pattern, however, constitute items of considerable interest. Some of these have fairly simple explanations. Arizona’s 1st district voted more Republican, for instance, mainly because Arizona was Senator John McCain’s home state.

Other districts, however, go against commonly-held political wisdom. Take LA-2: a black-majority, inner-city district located in New Orleans (represented, ironically, by Republican congressman Joseph Cao). While LA-2 strongly supported Mr. Obama, black depopulation in the aftermath of Katrina made this support less than that in 2004.

Another example can be found in the northeast:

Republicans do better in five Massachusetts districts and one New York district.

This movement stands in contrast to the narrative of Democratic dominance in the northeast. Most in the beltway have ignored this trend, or dismissed it as simply the loss of Mr. Kerry’s home-state advantage. Whether this is true or not, there is quite a lot of interesting stuff to be said on these districts. The next post will be devoted solely to exploring this pattern.

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

• AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.

• AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.

• IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.

• KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)

• CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.

• CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.

• NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.

• NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.

• OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.

• NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.

• NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)

• OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”

• WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.

• CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.

• Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!

• AZ-Sen: A little tension here between John McCain and retiring Rep. John Shadegg? Shadegg has endorsed McCain (along with the rest of Arizona’s GOP House delegation) but was publicly laughing along with the Morning Joe crew to John McCain’s new TV ad on border security (which marks a big ‘ol flip-flop for the one-time pro-immigration reform McCain).

• NV-Sen: Everyone’s abuzz today about the new Mason-Dixon/LVRJ poll that has right-winger Sharron Angle moving into contention in the GOP primary, mostly as Sue Lowden’s expense. The numbers suggest that may have more to do with Angle’s higher profile after getting the Tea Party Express endorsement, rather than blowback from Lowden having laid an egg. We’ll have more on that poll once we have the general election numbers. Danny Tarkanian still seems to be in the thick of things, though; he’s touting an internal poll that has him tied with Lowden at 30-30, with Angle hanging back at 15. Tarkanian may also be able to blunt Angle’s surge a bit with a far-right endorsement of his own, from Minutemen co-founder Jim Gilchrist.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Peter King took a pass on challenging Kirsten Gillibrand after much public pondering, but today he’s announcing that he’s backing Bruce Blakeman in the GOP primary among the various lower-tier candidates who did get in.

• CA-Gov: Yesterday, Steve Poizner rooted around in his change jar and found an extra $2.5 million to go toward a final push in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Meg Whitman was unimpressed, raising the stakes with another $5 million (bringing her own campaign-long total to $64 million of her own money). “That’s not a ludicrous waste of money. Now this is a ludicrous waste of money,” she was overheard saying in an Australian accent.

• CT-Gov: Stop the presses! Rudy Marconi is out of the Democratic field for the gubernatorial race. Since this is probably the first you’ve heard of him and you may be thinking he’s the guy who invented the radio, no, he’s the First Selectman of Ridgefield. He was the last minor Dem to fall, making it a two-man fight between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy. (Marconi endorsed Lamont on the way out.) Both Lamont and Malloy picked up some labor endorsements too, although it seems like Malloy got the bigger score, in the form of the SEIU’s two largest locals in the state. Lamont got the Laborers.

• MA-Gov: It looks like the RGA’s hard hit on indie Tim Cahill (echoes of their attacks on Chris Daggett in New Jersey) may have had the desired effects. A Rasmussen poll this week showed Cahill lagging into the teens, in the third place, with GOPer Charlie Baker moving up (unfortunately for them, it also seemed to suggest some Cahill votes moving to Patrick too, as he moved up even more than Baker and pushed into the 40s, but I suppose that’s part of the GOP’s plan to try and minimize Cahill and turn it into a traditional two-man race). It also blunted a social conservative uprising: a number of RNC national committee members had moved to stop the RGA from spending money on Charlie Baker because of his tolerant social views, but many of them withdrew that request shortly after seeing the polls indicating that the GOP attacks were actually working. UPDATE: National Journal has some additional background, and it seems like the back-down may have had more to do with some hard arm-twisting from Haley Barbour than a sudden epiphany on the part of the recalcitrant Iowans.

• MN-Gov: Looks like Margaret Anderson Kelliher, despite her DFL endorsement, is far from having things locked down in the Democratic primary. The United Steelworkers endorsed one of her opponents who didn’t bother with the party process, ex-sen. Mark Dayton.

• NV-Gov: One small tidbit from yesterday’s poll by Dem pollster Fairbank Maslin, that raised a lot of eyebrows over its NV-Sen numbers, escaped our attention. They also found Rory Reid within striking distance of likely GOP nominee Brian Sandoval, 46-41. (No word on a Reid/Gibbons result.)

• NC-07: Now here’s one of the last places I’d expected to see an intramural cat-fud fight. After attracting some good notices from the NRCC (including addition to the “On the Radar” tier) based on respectable fundraising and Iraq vet credentials, Ilario Pantano got over the 50% mark in the GOP primary. But now his two vanquished rivals, 2008 nominee Will Breazeale and Randy Crow, are uniting to fight against Pantano in the general. This doesn’t sound like a typical lame case of sour grapes: Breazeale, a vet himself, says he has a “moral obligation” to fight Pantano over his actions in Iraq. It turns out Pantano was charged with murder after shooting two Iraqis in his custody, although charges were eventually dropped. Pantano faces Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre, who’s had little trouble holding this R+5 seat so far.

• NY-01: With three rich guys duking it out in the GOP primary, Newt Gingrich, for some reason, waded into the fray to endorse the seemingly richest of the bunch: Randy Altschuler.

• WI-07: One more prominent local Dem decided against competing in the primary to replace retiring Rep. David Obey, leaving state Sen. Julie Lassa pretty much the consensus pick. Former state Sen. Kevin Shibilski said he liked the idea of getting in, but recognized the importance of avoiding a contested primary.

• West Virginia: Highly motivated voters in both parties this year? Guess again, if West Virginia’s primary is any indication. Turnout in the Mountain State was actually a record low, with only 166,000 votes cast, or 14% of registered voters.

• Florida: Mason-Dixon’s Senate and Governor poll included a whole bunch of downballot races too, offering a mixed bag for Dems. Maybe the most noteworthy finding: Dem ex-Tallahassee mayor Scott Maddox is leading the Ag Commissioner race, 31-30. That’s surprising, since the GOP fielded a top-tier opponent (in fact, several tiers above what this kind of race usually attracts) in the former of retiring Rep. Adam Putnam. In the CFO race, GOP state Senate president Jeff Atwater leads Dem ex-state Rep. Loranne Ausley, 33-26. For the AG race, they don’t poll the general but look at both primaries (where undecideds rule the day). On the Dem side, state Sen. Dan Gelber (who had run for Senate for a while) leads state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who really should be running in FL-16 instead) 15-12, while on the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp leads Pam Bondi 13-10.

• Demographics: While we’re talking about Florida, Josh Goodman has some interesting number-crunching about where the growth in Florida is, and what that may mean for redistricting. The fastest-growing counties in the state seem to be the dark-red exurbs around Jacksonville (like Clay County), but that’s counterbalanced somewhat by the fast growth in the Orlando area, where the growth isn’t quite as fast but where there’s also a Democratic trend in the electorate.