Tag: HI-Gov

AK-Sen: Another great catch by the Mudflats, and I’m ashamed I missed this one myself. In trying to explain why he applied for an indigent hunting license (for people making less than $8200/yr), Joe Miller claimed he was on a merit scholarship at Yale. Fortunately, Mudflats catches something about my alma mater that managed to slip my mind: Yale doesn’t offer merit scholarships. What lie will come next from the Miller camp?

CT-Sen: Heartless bastard Linda McMahon said she wants to lower the minimum wage – and even admitted she didn’t fucking know what the current minimum wage is! I love it when zillionaire assholes think that the guys on the bottom rung should be shoved down a rung further. Eh, fuck you, Linda McMahon.

Connecticut’s Working Families Party also took this opportunity to slam McMahon and endorse Dem Richard Blumenthal, who will benefit from having the WFP line. (Connecticut, like New York, allows fusion voting.) In case you were wondering, all five of CT’s Congressmembers have the WFP’s backing, as does gubernatorial nominee Dan Malloy.

DE-Sen: When called on the fact that her LinkedIn page made the extremely lulzy claim that she’d studied at Oxford, Christine O’Donnell claimed someone else had posted the profile. Now a different version has been uncovered at ZoomInfo (which says the profile was claimed – presumably by O’Donnell – through a “double opt-in process”), and it, too, has the Oxford bullshit. I’d say “busted!”, but is this even remotely a surprise?

KY-Sen: Have you seen Jack Conway’s excellent new ad about Kentucky’s drug problem? Well, Rand Paul thinks it’s “kind of tacky and really dishonest and kind of creepy.” Mike Donta, the man featured in the ad who lost his son to drug addiction, said Paul’s childish reaction is an “insult,” both to him and other families battling this problem.

And one other important note: The ad buy that the DSCC supposedly cancelled here has been “bought back,” according to Aaron Blake.

OH-Sen: The Cleveland Plain Dealer obtained an internal Lee Fisher finance document, which lays out a bunch of different scenarios for keeping the campaign financially afloat in the final month of the race. It’s not a pretty picture – one nuclear option involves laying off ten staff members to pay for TV time. And worst of all, Fisher apparently raised less than a million bucks in the quarter. Sigh.

WV-Sen: Despite John Raese’s efforts to paint him as weak on coal, Dem Gov. Joe Manchin secured the endorsement of the West Virginia Coal Association, which “represents 90 percent of the state’s coal producers.”

HI-Gov: He doesn’t sound quite like an anti-vax nutter, but Republican Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona is refusing to get a flu shot himself, saying he’s “not convinced that vaccines are more beneficial that harmful,” despite encouraging state residents to get vaccinated. Yeah, that’s helpful.

CO-04: If I had my dream job, newspaper writers would refer to me as “Democratic ratfucker DavidNYC,” because really, I love nothing more than a good ratfuck. So kudos to “Our Community Votes,” which is running a radio ad “attacking” a conservative independent candidate, ostensibly in the hopes of raising his profile and making him more appealing to wingers. It’s not clear who’s behind the group, but “public records shows that it shares Washington, D.C., office space with other groups tied to Steve Rosenthal, a longtime labor movement and Democratic strategist and former political director of the AFL-CIO.” And there’s real money behind this buy, too: $100,000 worth.

CO-07: The douchebags at the American Future Fund are spending $560K trying to unseat Ed Perlmutter, and apparently in a first for them, this includes a canvass operation, not just ad buys.

IL-10: Another day, another legal hassle for Bob Dold! The FEC dinged him for failing to report a $17,000 expenditure for “a motor coach that was used in Dold’s ads as part of a bus tour.” Dold submitted amended reports which showed several other expenditures and debts that somehow went missing from his earlier filings. How do you just forget about $17,000? Bob Dold!

WA-08: Ugh – this is pathetic. Evidently the League of Conservation Voters – another one of those ostensibly liberal groups that loved to endorse so-called “moderate” Republicans – enjoys getting abused. Earlier this year, Dave Reichert admitted that he occasionally votes a pro-environment line simply to remain in office. Despite this, the LCV is endorsing Reichert on account of his cap-and-trade vote. Glad to see they admire sincerity so much.

Site News: The Swing State Project just enjoyed its biggest month ever, with over 700,000 pageviews and more than 350,000 visitors. Here’s hoping the trend continues!

SSP-TV:

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan attacks Roy Blunt for being a “prodigious pork-meister.” Does anyone else think this is as lame and boring as when Republicans try to pin this on us?
• NV-Sen: Harry Reid has led the way with relentless, hard-hitting, and just plain good attack ads this cycle. Yeah, Sharron Angle provides a lot of fodder, but all Republicans have weak spots. This ad nails her for trying to repeal a law which requires insurance companies to cover mammograms
• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin hits John Raese with his own words, including Raese’s infamous “I made money the old-fashioned way – I inherited it” gem
• CO-Gov: Dan Maes (yeah, I know!!) has a really boring minute-long intro ad. No word on the size of the “buy,” but I doubt he could even afford to run Google ads on SSP
• FL-25: Two ads from GOPer David Rivera – the first a boring spot about cutting government spending (check out the weird artifacts bouncing off his shirt at 27 seconds – you think YouTube? or is the broadcast version also messed up?); the second, a litany of attacks on Joe Garcia (and the production values are weak here, too). Meanwhile, Garcia has a much better ad hitting Rivera for the infamous “ramming a truck off the road” incident
• IL-10: Bob Dold! thinks that Dan Seals is a job killer
• ME-02: Fuck, these veteran ads always make me well up a bit. Another good one on VA health clinics, from Mike Michaud (his first in four years)
• OH-09: Rich Iott attacks Marcy Kaptur as a “liar” for a supposedly misleading ad (I think this is it) and brings up the 11% unemployment rate in Toledo

Independent Expenditures:

• Concerned Taxpayers: $92K for GOPer Art Robinson (OR-04) and $47K against Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
• FIRST!… Amendment Alliance: $117K against Harry Reid (NV-Sen) (Topic: The First Amendment Alliance doesn’t care about the first amendment or alliances. Discuss)
• Realtors: $1.3 million spread among Bill Foster (IL-14), Pat Tiberi (OH-12), Ken Calvert (CA-44), and Dave Reichert (WA-08), including polls
• Revere America: George Pataki’s band of fuckwits is spending over $400K on ads against Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01) and over $350K against John Hall (NY-19) (note second buy was made 9/17 but report filed 9/30 in violation of FEC rules)

12:32pm: In the end, the numbers barely changed from the first batch. Neil Abercrombie crushed Mufi Hannemann, 60-38.

2:17am: TV station KHON was just at Abercrombie HQ, and while the crowd seems pretty pumped there, I’m still not getting the sense that they think the race is over – they keep talking about waiting for the “second printout” (ie, the next batch of results).

2:10am: DavidNYC here. Not so sure about this call. Doesn’t seem like local HI TV news is acknowledging what the AP is saying.

1:51am: We don’t need to wait up all night, though – the AP has just called the race for Neil Abercrombie!

1:26am: It looks like we won’t have any new numbers for another two hours. Go take a ganja break and check back later.

1:17am: We finally have some numbers, and Abercrombie is up big: 42K to 28K votes (59%-40%). It looks like this hasn’t been a very smooth process in Hawaii today.

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RESULTS: Associated Press | Politico

Polls will be closing at midnight Eastern (6pm local) for the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Hawaii between ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie and former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann. We’ll have a thread up later tonight to follow the returns, but until then, please share your predictions in the comments.

• AK-Sen: All signs are now pointing toward a Lisa Murkowski write-in bid, although nothing is official yet. But she’s inviting supporters to a “campaign kickoff” tonight, which are certainly not the words of someone ready to go gently into that good night. She seems undeterred by the fact that the Tea Party Express already fired a shot across her bow yesterday, warning her to be a “good team member” and saying they’ll resume spending money against her if she does. Meanwhile, hilarious and slightly damning news on the Joe Miller front, as it turns out that he, like so many other teabagger candidates this year, was a recipient of $14K in farm subsidies over the decade for a thousand acres of land he owned near Fairbanks. Y’know, subsidies from the federal government that he hates so much, in order to pay for the otherwise-unprofitable way of life that he chose. (Can you even grow anything near Fairbanks? That may be the most surprising part of the story to me.)

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell and Chris Coons faced off in their first appearance together, and O’Donnell seemed to be doing a lot of rhetorical distancing from the O’Donnell that had existed up until Tuesday. Meanwhile, O’Donnell is now facing the wrath of multiple ex-aides, all willing to dish to Politico on the trainwrecks that were previous O’Donnell campaigns.

• IL-Sen: Illinois-based Republican-linked robo-pollster We Ask America is out with their second poll of the IL-Sen race, giving Mark Kirk a 39-36 link over Alexi Giannoulias. That’s better than their previous offering, which gave Kirk a 6-point edge.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold’s “Cheddarbomb” sounds like it was very successful, bringing in at least $435K in one day’s worth of contributions.

• AR-Gov: With yesterday’s PPP NH-Gov poll, I think it’s now safe to say that Mike Beebe is officially the nation’s safest Democratic incumbent governor this year. The gubernatorial half of yesterday’s Mason-Dixon poll on behalf of Arkansas News Service is out, and Beebe leads Republican challenger Jim Keet by 21 points, 54-33. (One other very important detail: currently, Beebe has $2.5 million CoH, while Keet has $9,000.) Given the state’s turn to the red this cycle, Dems should be glad that they aren’t defending an open seat here, though, as in the open Lt. Governor race, Dem state Sen. Shane Broadway is barely leading Some Dude (Mark Darr) 36-34.

• CA-Gov: Well, my cynicism has been eased a bit, I guess: Bill Clinton will be giving Jerry Brown the full endorsee treatment and not just throwing him a bone, including stumping on his behalf (and Gavin Newsom’s behalf too) in mid-October.

• HI-Gov: It feels like the primary season wrapped up on Tuesday, but there’s one last race that needs to be previewed: the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Hawaii, which will be settled in their regularly scheduled election tomorrow. The race pits ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie against former Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann in what’s literally a clash of titans (the 72-year-old Abercrombie can bench-press 272 lbs., while former basketball player Hannemann is 6’7″). Hannemann seems to running a bit to Abercrombie’s right, at least on social issues, and Abercrombie seems to have the late momentum based on polling and fundraising. The linked WaPo article points to some intriguing behind the scenes drama (with Dan Inouye behind Hannemann and Ed Case behind Abercrombie) and the racial resentments stirred by the race (Abercrombie is white, Hannemann is Samoan).

• NM-Gov: The DGA is keeping the pressure on in New Mexico, hitting Susana Martinez again on staff bonuses and sweetheart deals. Bill Clinton, who’s increasingly turning out to be the #1 Dem surrogate on the stump this cycle, is also now scheduled to stump on Diane Denish’s behalf on Oct. 14 in the heavily-Latino northern town of Espanola.

• NY-Gov: This may be the dumbest idea in the history of political advertising: send intentionally bad-smelling mailers to people’s houses. Carl Paladino is trying to make the point that “something smells” in Albany, but there has to be a smarter way to do it than invading people’s houses to intentionally physically sicken them.

• CO-04: Hot on the heels of the NRA backing John Salazar next door in the 3rd, now they’re also endorsing Democratic freshman Betsy Markey in the similarly rural, reddish 4th.

• MI-09: There’s a poll out in the 9th from a previously unknown (to us) pollster (The Rossman Group/Team Telcom) giving Rocky Raczkowski a small lead over Dem freshman Gary Peters, 45-41. Thanks to Paleo in the comments, we know that the Rossman Group is a PR firm associated with state-level GOP operative Audrey Perricone, so salt this one as you see fit.

• NY-23: All that hoping paid off, and now the cat is now officially in the dryer! A replay of the special election is on, as Doug Hoffman, who narrowly lost the GOP primary to Matt Doheny, is saying that he is going to stick with the Conservative Line no matter what. (More accurately, Conservative party chair Michael Long, who’s basically been Hoffman’s puppetmaster for the last year, is the one saying that.)

• TN-04: Sure, we’ve all been accused of harassment, intimidation, and physical abuse, but… oh, wait. We haven’t? Well, Republican candidate Scott DesJarlais was accused by his ex-wife of all of that, in divorce filings from a decade ago. It’s unclear how much this’ll affect the direction of the race, though; buried deep in the Roll Call article is word of a late August internal poll on Lincoln Davis’s behalf (released in response to a DesJarlais internal showing him within 4 of Davis), giving Davis a 51-40 lead. (No word on who Davis’s pollster is.)

• Mayors: Primary-defeated Dem incumbent Adrian Fenty somehow won the Republican mayoral primary. There wasn’t a candidate, and Fenty got more write-in votes than anyone else. It didn’t sound like Fenty was interested in turning coats and running again under the GOP aegis, and now the DC BoE is arguing that he couldn’t anyway, as he would have had to be a member of the Republican Party as of the election date.

• IE Tracker:

• MO-Sen: $124K from Commonsense Ten against Roy Blunt

• WV-01: $439K from American Future Fund against Mike Oliverio

• NC-02, VA-09: $341K from Americans for Job Security against Bob Etheridge, $431K against Rick Boucher

• AL-02: $414K from AFF against Bobby Bright

• SC-05: $191K from AFF against John Spratt

• NJ-03: $170K from AFF against John Adler

• MI-01: $304K from AFF against Gary McDowell

• GA-08: $346K from AFF against Jim Marshall

• MI-07: $501K from AFF against Mark Schauer

• SSP TV:

• PA-Sen: The DSCC rides to Joe Sestak’s rescue with an ad tying Pat Toomey to George Bush’s deficit-swelling tax policies, while the Club for Growth tries to walk a delicate balance, thanking Sestak for his military service before laying into his voting record

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard’s out with not one but three different ads using footage of Jan Brewer’s tongue-tied performance at last month’s debate, one of which focuses on her unproven allegations about headless bodies in the desert (and ending with the tagline “Is this the best Arizona can do?”)

• KS-Gov: The Kansas Moderate Majority PAC runs an anti-Sam Brownback ad hitting him on the flat tax, while Brownback is out with two ads of his own

• MI-Gov: Virg Bernero’s on the air, hitting Rick Sndyer for outsourcing jobs while he was head of Gateway

• ID-01: Walt Minnick actually hits Raul Labrador for being too soft on illegal immigrants, saying it’s “good business” for Labrador’s immigration law practice

• MI-01: 2 ads from Gary McDowell, one about cleaning up the Great Lakes and one hitting Dan Benishek on Social Security privatization

• TX-17: Chet Edwards is doing the distancing-from-DC-Democrats game in his newest ad

• WA-08: Suzan DelBene’s first TV ad starts negative against Dave Reichert, hitting him on his financial reform vote and on earmarks, of all things

• Rasmussen:

• IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 34%, Dan Coats (R) 50%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 45%, Charlie Baker (R) 42%, Tim Cahill (I) 5%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 44%, Ron Johnson (R) 51%

AK-Sen: As of Friday, Lisa Murkowski was saying that she still hasn’t made a decision about whether to pursue a write-in bid. At least one major Republican is opposed to the idea: Sen. John Cornyn says that Murkowski would have to quit her job as vice chair of the NRSC if she goes the third-party route. I also wonder if her Senate committee spots might be in jeopardy, too. Anyhow, Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota’s excellent Smart Politics blog has a good post on the history of write-in campaigns in the Land of the Midnight Sun. In eight statewide contests, the best-ever score in a senate race was 17%, and 26% in a gubernatorial race. I actually think those numbers aren’t bad at all!

More importantly, we’re very close to our fundraising goal for Dem Scott McAdams. So far, 61 people have donated $2,080. I’d love to see us hit our goal of $2,400 – the equivalent of one maximum federal donation – by the end of this week. Think we can do it? Help make it happen!

DE-Sen: While everyone’s still abuzz about last night’s poll numbers, there’s some other DE-Sen news worth reporting. For one, the NRA endorsed Christine O’Donnell. For another, so did Sen. Jim DeMint, Kingmaker of Loons. For yet another, Sarah Palin recorded a robocall for O’Donnell, playing up their shared sense of victimhood.

Meanwhile, The Hill says that the Tea Party Express has spent some $300K on radio and TV ads on O’Donnell’s behalf, but it’s a little hard to double-check that since TPX’s FEC filings seem to use, shall we say, “new math.” Finally, a reporter asked Mike Castle if he’d pursue an independent bid if he lost the primary. (DE’s laws are apparently similar to Alaska’s in this regard.) Castle was surprisingly non-committal, saying he’d “have to give it thought.”

GA-Sen: Big Dog Alert (retroactive)! Bill Clinton was in Atlanta late last week to do a fundraiser for Labor Comm’r Michael Thurmond, the Dem senate nominee challenging GOPer Johnny Isakson. Thurmond, as you’d expect, was a big-time Hillary Clinton supporter.

IA-Sen: Chuck Grassley, making a play for the dirty old man vote, had this to say when asked why he didn’t once look at opponent Roxanne Conlin during a recent debate:

“I wish you had told me because I would have been very happy to look at her. She’s a very nice looking woman.”

NH-Sen: The New Hampshire Union Leader has been combing through a batch of emails released by the NH attorney general’s office pursuant to a freedom of information request, and they’ve turned up a doozy: Then-AG Kelly Ayotte used her official email account to discuss campaign strategy with a guy who later became one of her consultants. In better news for Ayotte, Sarah Palin recorded a robocall for her, too (see DE-Sen item above), but man is this imagery getting crazy: She calls Ayotte a “Granite Grizzly.” Zuh? Anyhow, Jim DeMint’s also decided to get involved here (again, see DE-Sen), endorsing surging wingnut Ovide Lamontagne.

NV-Sen: Jon Ralston has the complete tick-tock on how he got Harry Reid and Sharron Angle to agree to a debate on his show – only to have Angle, in a spasm of campaign dysfunction, pull out, despite being the one to throw down the challenge to Reid in the first place.

AK-Gov: Anchorage attorney Bill Walker, who drew about 30% in his primary against Gov. Sean Parnell (thanks to $300K in self-funding), says he’s still waiting to see if either the Alaskan Independence Party or Libertarian Party candidates withdraw from the race. If there’s a drop-out by Wednesday, Walker could take that spot for the general election.

HI-Gov: A new robopoll by Aloha Vote (taken for online news service Civil Beat) shows ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie beating Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann by 48-31 in the Democratic primary. That’s a pretty different picture from a Ward Research survey a few weeks ago which had Abercrombie leading just 49-44.

NY-Gov: It’s been a long time since anyone has come out with any interesting statewide poll numbers in New York, but with just days to go before the primary, Siena has finally managed to surprise us (well, sorta): They show scuzzbucket businessman Carl Paladino in a dead heat with ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, trailing just 43-42. In mid-August, Lazio had a 43-30 lead, so this is all Paladino surge. The rest of the numbers (which test the senate races) are all meh – click the link if you want `em.

In other NY-Gov news, the Working Families Party decided to endorse Andrew Cuomo, and Cuomo – who had kept the WFP at arms’ length for a long time – accepted. A federal investigation of the WFP was recently dropped, which seemingly helped smooth things. The party was in a very tough spot, though, as without Cuomo on their ballot spot, there was no real path for them to get the 50,000 votes they needed to avoid losing their ballot line. So I’m guessing there may be more to this story.

CO-03: What is wrong with GOPer Scott Tipton?

“John Salazar, it’s time to come home,” Tipton said as he opened the debate. “It’s 9/11. Let’s roll.”

FL-25: Another mystery teabagger has (not really) come out of the woodwork. Roly Arrojo is running on the Florida Tea Party line, and it seems no one knows a thing about him, except for the fact that he hasn’t filed any FEC reports – except for a Statement of Candidacy in which he identified himself as a Democrat. Republicans are suggesting this is a Dem put-up job, but Joe Garcia’s camp is of course denying any knowledge of this guy. Interestingly, so is the head of the FL Tea Party!

ND-AL: I know, it sounds like parody, but Republican Rick Berg has a great idea: Drill for oil in North Dakota’s Theodore Roosevelt National Park! Not only is it, of course, illegal to do so, but it’s also a fucking national park!

NY-13: Republican Michael Allegretti just got bounced from the new teabaggish Taxpayers Party line, thanks to a lack of sufficient signatures. Rival Mike Grimm already has the Conservative line, come hell or high water.

NY-15: Of all people, Mayor Mike Bloomberg wound up recording a robocall for Rep. Charlie Rangel.

PA-08 (PDF): Yikes. Sophomore Dem Patrick Murphy just put out an internal from the Global Strategy Group showing him up by a mere 47-43 margin over the man he beat in 2006, Republican Mike Fitzpatrick. This is scary.

VA-05: The Weiner Watch continues: Republican Rob Hurt has already skipped two debates, and now he’s announced he’s skipping a third. Weiner!

Chicago-Mayor: Outgoing Chicago Mayor Richard Daley says he won’t make an endorsement in the race to succeed him.

NY-AG (PDF): Siena also released some final attorney general numbers, finding Eric Schneiderman narrowly in the lead at 25, with Kathleen Rice nipping his heels at 23. Sean Coffey is at 13, Richard Brodsky at 7, and Eric Dinallo at 4. The race has continued to get nasty in its final days, with Rice putting out a TV ad trying to link Schneiderman to scumbag state Sen. Pedro Espada, while a Schneiderman spot hits Rice for only becoming a Democrat in 2005.

DCCC: Blah blah blah, Dems not paying their DCCC dues. It’s old news, and I’m beyond sick of these stories, but not (only) for the reason you might expect. Oh yeah, I’m pissed at the schmucks who are holding out on their party for no discernible reason, but I’m also frustrated with the DCCC. We’ve repeatedly told them we want to help them raise money from their members – the netroots is not all-powerful, but we can bring some pressure on stingy Dems. But the DCCC steadfastly refuses to share their dues spreadsheet with us – even though they have no problem sharing it with the likes of Politico, and even though they actually promised to give us a copy at Netroots Nation. Not just obnoxious, but weirdly self-defeating.

SSP-TV:

• NV-Sen: Dem Sen. Harry Reid
• PA-Sen: Dem Joe Sestak
• CA-47: Dem Rep. Loretta Sanchez
• IA-02: Dem Rep. Dave Loebsack
• PA-08: GOPer Mike Fitzpatrick

Independent Expenditures:

• DE-Sen: Tea Party Express ($13K & $55K on media on behalf of Christine O’Donnell)
• MO-Sen: AFSCME ($43K on anti-Roy Blunt mailer)
• PA-Sen: CFG ($122K on anti-Joe Sestak ads)
• KY-06: NRCC ($96K on anti-Ben Chandler ads and polls from two different firms)

More generally, the NRCC’s IE arm said that it would go up with anti-Dem ads in eight districts (though no IE reports have yet been filed): AZ-01, AL-02, FL-02, MS-01, TN-08, TX-17, VA-05 & WI-07. A representative ad is available at the link.

• DE-Sen: Despite all the hullabaloo about the late-breaking surge by Christine O’Donnell (which, if you look at fundraising and ad spending, seems like it might not have been that much of a surge at all), both parties seem to be reconciled to a Chris Coons/Mike Castle race, according to CQ. O’Donnell seems to be hanging her hopes on a last-minute Sarah Palin endorsement, which, according to intense semantic analysis by Twitterologists, didn’t really happen with her recent retweety-hashtaggy thing.

• HI-Gov: Hawaii’s the last primary in the nation, and that also means it’s the last for pre-primary financial reporting. Neil Abercrombie, who’d been lagging Mufi Hannemann on the fundraising front previously, shot ahead for the months of July and August. Abercrombie raised $768K while Hannemann raised $330K. Hannemann still has the CoH edge, $792K to $275K.

• NM-Gov: GOPer Susana Martinez has led narrowly in most polls here, but the RGA isn’t taking this race for granted: they’re moving $500K to the Martinez campaign. The DGA is also continuing to fight here, and they seem to think they have something here with their own little Bonusgate story here (where Martinez allegedly spent border security money on staff bonuses instead); they’re running their second attack ad here, and it (like the first ad) focuses on the bonuses.

• RI-Gov: There had been rumors of this way, way back, but the RNC is revisiting them today, saying that Democratic candidate Frank Caprio talked to them about a possible party switch in February (back when he was still facing the more-liberal Patrick Lynch in the Dem primary). It’s unclear what the GOP’s angle is in releasing this now… their chances are pretty much DOA, so are they just hoping to deny the DGA a victory here (for post-election talking points purposes) by driving Caprio votes to Lincoln Chafee (the indie who seems to be running, for the most part, to Caprio’s left)?

• VT-Gov: The recount has begun for the ultra-close Democratic primary in the Vermont gubernatorial race, but instead of lobbing grenades at each other, 197-vote leader Peter Shumlin and runner-up Doug Racine are touring the state together in an RV, stumping along with the other three candidates. In fact, Racine is urging his donors to get behind Shumlin, despite having requested the recount. (So far, Shumlin’s lead has edged up by 9, with 10 of the state’s 14 counties having completed the recanvass.)

• WI-Gov: Here’s a good development, that a lot of other outgoing Dem incumbents might take a lesson from: Jim Doyle, with $1.8 million sitting around in his campaign funds as he ends his gubernatorial run, is transferring $1 million of that money to the Greater Wisconsin Committee, which has aired both anti-Scott Walker and anti-Mark Neumann ads.

• CT-05: Here’s one House GOP internal that’s getting a little stale, but somehow eluded us until just now: Sam Caligiuri put out a late-August internal from National Research showing him right on Chris Murphy’s heels, trailing 40-39.

• Committees: Jim Doyle’s not the only guy with money to burn who’s emptying out the piggy banks. Barack Obama will be transferring $4.5 million from his campaign fund, divvying it up three ways with $1.5 million each to the DCCC, DSCC, and DNC.

• Mayors (pdf): Two mayoral polls are out today. One is more timely, with the DC primary only days away: Clarus finds Vincent Gray ready to oust incumbent Adrian Fenty in the Dem primary, 45-38. We Ask America also pounces on the Chicago mayor question, despite a thoroughly unclear field, and finds Rahm Emanuel would be starting in the pole position out of 10 names they gave. Emanuel’s at 30, followed by Tom Dart at 14, and both Luis Gutierrez and Jesse Jackson Jr. at 13.

• Massachusetts: Here’s an interesting set of numbers out of the Bay State: despite the election of Scott Brown and running a competitive gubernatorial race, Republicans have actually lost ground lately in terms of registration. The GOP has lost more than 9,000 voters over the last two years, and are down to 11% of all registrations. Dems held almost even at 37%, while the ranks of the unenrolled grew (by 187K since 2006), up to 51% of the electorate.

• SSP TV:

• IN-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce is out with an anti-Brad Ellsworth ad hitting the usual “trillions of government spending” points

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin’s first TV ad attacks John Raese for running attack ads

• OH-Gov: The SEIU attacks John Kasich on his Wall Street days, with a “significant six-figure” buy

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato’s first TV ad of the general is a 60-second extravaganza focusing on the revitalization of Pittsburgh

• IL-14: Randy Hultgren talks jobs

• MI-01: Gary McDowell’s first ad has testimonials from locals saying he’s just like them, only “better dressed”

• OH-18: Americans for Job Security is out with four anti-Dem House ads, in IN-08, PA-04, and PA-07 as well as the 18th… and we have actual numbers ($124K in OH-18, $415K in PA-04, $293 in PA-07, and $318K in IN-08)

• SC-05: John Spratt’s first TV ad of the cycle focuses, unsurprisingly, on his constituent service reputation and attention to local issues

• Rasmussen:

• AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 37%, John McCain (R-inc) 51%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 34%, Mark Kirk (R) 37%, LeAlan Jones (G) 12%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 53%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 50%, John Raese (R) 45%

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August rankings at link.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)

NV (Rasmussen’s latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)

WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)

WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

Rep Tilt

CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)

KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)

FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

Rep Lean

MO (I don’t expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)

PA (I really hope Sestak hasn’t left it too late to try and define Toomey.)

NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn’t the nominee.)

OH (Fisher doesn’t have the money to compete.)

Dem Lean

CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)

CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

Rep Lean

NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don’t see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

Dem Favored

WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

Rep Favored

DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)

IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)

LA (Vitter doesn’t deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)

AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)

AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)

MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)

MD (O’Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)

FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott’s negatives.)

MA (I suspect Cahill’s support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)

IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)

ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)

VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)

NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)

WI (Walker missteps mean I’m more bullish here than I was.)

CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

Dem Lean

CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley’s money will yet tighten things up.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Brewer’s debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)

MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)

PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)

TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)

OH (Can’t quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

Dem Favored

CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)

HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)

RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

Rep Favored

SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)

OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)

IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)

NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)

AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)

TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)

AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)

WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)

UT (This is Utah.)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now (8/10-17, likely voters, 4/23-28 in parens):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49 (36)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 44 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

General election numbers:

Neil Abercrombie (D): 53 (49)

Duke Aiona (R): 41 (35)

Undecided: 6 (16)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 54 (48)

Duke Aiona (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This one’s been sitting on our shelf for a couple of days, so now’s a good time to clear the decks before it starts to collect dust. Note that Ward Research has shifted away from their unusual approach in sampling that they deployed back in May and gone for a more conventional sample.

Favorable ratings for all three of these guys are pretty even: Aiona’s at 57-31, Abercrombie’s at 57-36, and Hannemann’s at 55-38. In the general election, both Democrats lose independents to Aiona by varying degrees (Abercrombie by 41-49 and Hannemann by 32-52) and aren’t holding onto Democrats very strongly (Hannemann leads among Dems by 72-21 and Abercrombie leads by 71-24). The problem remains, though, that there are just way more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. Aiona has a shot, but he’ll probably need the Democratic primary to get a bit nastier first.

AR-Sen: Quelle surprise: The AFL-CIO, which was a major supporter of Bill Halter, won’t endorse Blanche Lincoln in the general.

NV-Sen: Your daily dose of Angle Crazy comes courtesy Greg Sargent:

MANDERS: We have domestic enemies. We have home-born homegrown enemies in our system. And I for one think we have some of those enemies in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.

ANGLE: Yes. I think you’re right, Bill.

PA-Sen: Karl Rove’s gang of ne’er-do-wells is out with an ad attacking Joe Sestak. NWOTSOTB.

WI-Sen: Weirdo Ron Johnson has a new ad out, trying to sell himself as just a reg’lar guy. NWOTSOTB, but the “ad is airing statewide on cable and broadcast TV starting Tuesday, according to a campaign spokeswoman.” Meanwhile, the new right-wing group American Action Network is dropping a $325K ad buy against Russ Feingold. Some background on the group (whose backers include Nixon hatchet man Fred Malek – whataguy!) here.

HI-Gov: Wow. Former Rep. (and recent special election loser) Ed Case went somewhat against type and endorsed Neil Abercrombie over Mufi Hannemann in the Dem gubernatorial primary. The “centrist” Case seemingly had more in common with Hannemann, the urbane mayor of Honolulu, than Abercrombie, the septuagenarian progressive. And Case didn’t just issue some anodyne statement – he utterly lambasted Hannemann:

Case called him “the most dangerous politician in a generation,” adding that Hannemann governs “by fear and intimidation.”

“He is the product and clear choice of a political machine that must end. While professing unity, he’s practiced the politics of division, exploiting rather than healing differences of race, origin and economic status,” Case said.

CO-03: Republican Scott Tipton is touting an internal poll from Magellan, showing him with a 49-43 lead over Rep. John Salazar. Salazar says his own internals have him leading. One FYI about this (and most other) Magellan polls: It’s a one-day sample, much like Rasmussen, and – I would guess – does not include callbacks. Nate Silver previously laid out in great detail how a lack of callbacks can negatively affect poll quality.

KS-04: Raj Goyle is up with a positive bio spot touting his “Kansas values.” NWOTSOTB, though this district is centered around Wichita, which is a pretty cheap media market.

MA-10: Great headline:

Jeff Perry ‘proud’ despite work on bogus degree

Meanwhile, Dem Rob O’Leary is out with his first TV ad, which interestingly enough calls for an end to the war in Afghanistan. NWOTSOTB, and WARNING – AUTOPLAYING YOUTUBE. Very annoying.

MI-07: AFSCME has a new ad out hitting Republican retread Tim Walberg for his votes in Congress, though I think the messaging is a little muddled. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB just yet, but presumably the union will have to file an IE report soon.

NJ-12: GOPer Scott Sipprelle claims he’s launching his “third positive, issue-based cable television commercial this summer.” First off, check out the ad (which attacks “Washington politicians right at the start”) and then tell me if you think it’s “positive.” Secondly, I’m guessing that this ad is much closer to a “video press release” (as Nathan Gonzales calls them) than a real buy, given that this district lies mostly in the #1-most expensive media market in the country (and the rest is in Philly, which ain’t exactly cheap), and that Sipprelle acknowledges it’s a cable-only buy.

NY-14: It seems like a long time ago now, but remember when Carolyn Maloney came oh-so-close to primarying appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand? Well, it’s an old memory indeed, seeing as Gillibrand is hosting a breakfast fundraiser in Manhattan for Maloney next week.

OH-16: Jim Renacci is up with his first ad of the general election campaign – which I can only assume is targeted at his race against me for NYC Zoning Board. But it’s weird that he keeps talking about Ohio, no? Anyhow, a spokesman says the ad “is part of a $250,000 two-week buy” on both broadcast and cable. Do you think it’s running on New York 1?

OH-17: Jim Traficant missed the deadline to file as a write-in candidate, but his supporters are still hoping for a favorable ruling from SoS Jennifer Brunner on whether Traficant can appear as an independent. If not, they are supposedly threatening to go to court.

PA-04: Great, another one of these. Much like Joe Donnelly, Jason Altmire has a new ad up claiming he that he’s “not afraid to stand up to the president – and Nancy Pelosi.” Lovely. NWOTSOTB.

PA-10: It’s nice when Republican delusions help us win campaigns. Here’s Tom Marino’s latest:

“My generation and probably the generation that follows me, we are going to have to step up to the plate and say,” he said. “We are not going to get Social Security,” he said. “But we are going to pay into it to get this debacle squared away. So if I have to sacrifice my Social Security to get it squared away … because we can’t take Social Security away from people that are on it now.

• LA-Sen: That ginned-up internal poll that Chet Traylor released a few days ago (showing him within 12 of David Vitter) seems to have served its intended purpose, for what its worth: the contributions have started coming in at a much greater pace over the last few days. He pulled in $30K in three days, almost doubling up on the $42K he raised over the previous duration of his campaign (and most of which he blew on his new anti-Vitter radio ad). And this can’t please Vitter, either: a local paper is reporting to Vitter’s troublesome ex-aide, Brent Furer, traveled back from DC to Louisiana several times on the public’s dime, at points that just happened to coincide with his various trials on charges of drunk driving.

• NV-Sen: Sharron Angle seems to be wandering all over the map in search of a position on Social Security privatization, one that’s extreme enough to satisfy her teabagging core supporters but not so extreme that it scares off, y’know, old people. She’s removed the words “transitioned out” from her website (regarding Social Security) but, when pushed yesterday, said that she hasn’t changed her view that that’s how she feels about it (despite running ads claiming that she wants to “save” Social Security).

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak, meet Raul Labrador? As you probably know, there’s a common-sense rule of thumb that you don’t release your internal polls unless they show you, y’know, ahead of your opponent. Nevertheless, somebody (unclear whether it was the DSCC or the Sestak camp) leaked NBC a Peter Yang internal of the race giving Pat Toomey a 2-point lead over Sestak, 46-44. Obviously, that’s not designed to create a sense of Sestak’s inevitable victory as most internals are designed to do, but it’s pushback against this week’s PPP poll, where the switch to LVs hurt Sestak’s numbers, probably oriented toward letting contributors know that this race is still in play. The DSCC has also been nailing Toomey on the rather arcane issue of derivatives, which had a key role in inflating the asset bubble that popped and left all our faces covered in pink sticky goo in 2008. Somehow I doubt more than 1% of the nation can offer a cogent explanation of what derivatives (especially credit default swaps) do, but at any rate, they’ve tracked down three separate times when Toomey as Congressman, on the House floor, praised the use of derivatives, something he’s lately tried to distance himself from.

• WA-Sen: We’re up to 67% reporting in Washington, with the numbers not really having budged from Tuesday night (still 46 Patty Murray, 34 Dino Rossi, 12 Clint Didier), but more than three-quarters of the remaining precincts are in the Dem-friendly King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties, so look for some future budging. Meanwhile, here’s a comparison that only true politics junkies will get… remember Fred Heineman? (The one-term Republican House member from NC-04 swept in in 1994, who then said that his $183,000 salary made him “lower-middle-class” and that the middle class extended up to $750K, and promptly got swept out in 1996.) Dino Rossi has apparently decided that he should be Washington’s answer to Heineman, as he essentially said that one-third of Washingtonians make over $200K per year. More specifically, he said 2.5 million Washingtonians would benefit from keeping the Bush-era tax cuts for those making more than $200K/yr. (In reality, 105K households, or 1.6% of the state’s population, fit that profile.)

• CA-Gov: Here’s an iceberg in the way for the serene cruise of the Queen Meg: activists at a convention of state conservatives this weekend plan a rude welcome for her. They plan to lambaste her on her non-extreme positions on an Arizona-style immigration law in California, and her support for greenhouse gas-limiting Proposition 19 23. Also, here’s some quantitative evidence for something that I’ve long suspected: Whitman has so oversaturated the airwaves with advertising that it went well past the point of having its desired effect and is now just getting people pissed off at her. A Jerry Brown staffer leaked that nugget from internal polling, finding that her own advertising has helped Whitman with 8% of voters and hurt her with 27% of voters.

• IA-03: Hot on the heels of the David Rivera story in FL-25, here’s another uncomfortable blast from the past for another Republican House candidate: records reveal that Brad Zaun, the GOP’s nominee against Leonard Boswell, had to be told by West Des Moines police to stay away from his ex-girlfriend after a late night visit to her house to pound on her windows and call her names.

• MO-03, MO-04: Odd little pollster We Ask America seems to be entering another period of being prolific, as now they’re out with a couple House polls from the underserved state of Missouri. They find Russ Carnahan fairly comfortable against Republican challenger Ed Martin in the 3rd, leading 48-39, but find veteran Dem Ike Skelton in a tighter race in the 4th, leading Vicky Hartzler 45-42. Skelton still draws the support of 27% of Republicans and 37% of indies, crucial to surviving this dark-red district.

• CfG: The Club for Growth is starting to switch gears from primaries (where they seem to have had a more productive run this year than in previous cyles) to the general. They’ve endorsed four Republican challengers who all cleared the primary bar: Stephen Fincher in TN-08, Todd Young in IN-09, Mick Mulvaney in SC-05, and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

• Ads: The most attention-grabbing ad today seems to be from Indiana Dem Joe Donnelly, who already tried to distanced himself from “the Washington crowd” in his previous ad. Now he’s basically thrown in the towel on trying to fight the messaging war and just start running with Republican memes, touting his opposition in his newest ad to “Nancy Pelosi’s energy tax.” Other ads worth checking out today include an RGA ad for Duke Aiona in HI-Gov, a Joyce Elliott ad in AR-02, a Michelle Rollins spot in DE-AL, and a Mike McIntyre ad in NC-07.

• Rasmussen:

• MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D) 45%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 44%

• NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 36%, Brian Sandoval (R) 52%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D) 48%, Dino Rossi (R) 44%