Tag: NJ-Gov

Crossposted at Daily Kos

It’s been a while since I wrote one of these, and foolishly, I penned this diary yesterday evening with little sense that something as dramatic as a Supreme Court retirement was mere hours on the horizon…alas!

Irrespective of the indisputably riveting SCOTUS chatter, let’s start with the gov contests of 2009 before moving to 2010. Read about all 36 races below the fold…

First, a map of the entire gubernatorial state of play between 2009 and 2010:

As you may have guessed, light-colored states are open seats (10 Democratic, 7 Republican). The states with circular holes (Minnesota, Florida, and Wyoming) are states where it isn’t clear yet whether or not the incumbent will seek another term.

2009

New Jersey – Jon Corzine (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Tossup

Polls still show Corzine losing to GOP frontrunner Chris Christie, a former U.S. Attorney; the latest poll, from Monmouth University, shows Christie leading 39-35, with Corzine’s job approval at 40% to 49% disapproval. While New Jersey politicians typically poll badly, it’s foolish to discount these numbers…Corzine is in serious trouble. If there is a silver lining, it is that as public confidence in the economy and the direction of the country has ticked up, Corzine’s numbers have inched closer to parity with Christie. I’ve heard the occasional rumor that the Governor will “pull a Torricelli” and bow out at the 11th hour in favor of someone less controversial. Three problems with that: the replacement candidate won’t have Corzine’s money, Garden State voters may (rightfully) grow tired of those sorts of antics, and who would the replacement be, anyway? (I don’t think popular former Gov. Dick Codey fancies a comeback.) For better or worse, Corzine may have to correct this ship himself.

Virginia (OPEN) – Tim Kaine (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

As in 2005, a well-liked Democratic Governor is term-limited, the Republicans have united around the Attorney General as their nominee, and said Attorney General has a lead in most polls on the Democratic possibilities. Hopefully, as in 2005, dynamics will change after the June 9 Democratic primary. On the Dem side, Terry McAuliffe has seemingly catapulted into the lead, if the latest SurveyUSA poll is to be believed, with 38% to 22% each for State Del. Brian Moran and State Sen. Creigh Deeds. Each of the candidates narrowly loses to Attorney General Bob McDonnell, for now, but as I said, Kaine was well behind Jerry Kilgore all through summer 2005 as well. One odd item of trivia: the sitting President’s party has lost every Virginia gubernatorial election since Watergate. Such history is always subject to change (“bellwether Missouri” says hi), but it’s an amusing stat nonetheless.

And on the docket for 2010

Alabama (OPEN) – Bob Riley (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican

To date, the sole official GOP candidate is real estate developer Tim James, son of 1994-1998 GOP Gov. Fob James, though a run seems quite likely by the legendary (and not in a good way) Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the state’s Supreme Court. The major Democratic candidates, Rep. Artur Davis and State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks, seem a heck of a lot more impressive, but given the Yellowhammer State’s continued leanings (even a boost in black participation only pushed Obama to 39% here), the Republicans must warrant an early if narrow edge.

Alaska – Sarah Palin (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Congratulations to one Bob Poe and one Rob Rosenfeld, two Democrats who I assume are as unfamiliar to most Alaska voters as they are to the average political junkie, for choosing to run against Gov. Thanks But No Thanks. The drama surrounding Palin’s career — and there is plenty — is unfortunately unrelated to her prospects for reelection at the moment.

Arizona – Jan Brewer (R) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup / Tilts Republican

According to Politics1, Brewer is already drawing several primary opponents even as not a single Democrat has yet announced. Insert all clichés here about the advantages of incumbency, but Arizonans I talk to seem dubious about Brewer’s ability to effectively confront the state’s fiscal problems. Dems hold their breath as Attorney General Terry Goddard mulls it over, and Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon’s name has been tossed around more than once as well.

Arkansas – Mike Beebe (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Democratic

Beebe is one of the few governors presumably not suffering from declining approval ratings these days, and last I checked was one of the most popular in the nation.

California (OPEN) – Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup

At the moment, the Republican primary is, surprisingly, more crowded than the Democratic one, with former Rep. Tom Campbell, State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, and former eBay CEO Meg Whitman duking it out. Most seem to give the well-financed Whitman an edge, though Poizner is the only candidate of the three to have successfully sought statewide office. On the Dem side, two Bay Area heavyweights are in (Attorney General and former Gov. Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom) while Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is out (underwhelmed by his poll numbers against Brown and Newsom, he is seeking to replace Ellen Tauscher in Congress if and when she is confirmed as one of Hillary Clinton’s deputies). The mega-name still weighing his options? Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, the only Southern Californian and the only Hispanic being talked about in a state ever more ethnically diverse and heavily dominated by its southern counties. This race was assured long before it began to be a headliner.

Colorado – Bill Ritter (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Most thought Ritter was one of the less obviously endangered governors in 2010 (and nearly all of them have taken a hit from economic worries and state budget crises), but a Public Policy poll shows trouble, with his approval in the red at 41-49 and mediocre numbers against potential opponents like former Rep. Scott McInnis and State Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. There is plenty of time for Ritter to turn things around, but his supporters should certainly fight complacency.

Connecticut – Jodi Rell (R) seeking 2nd full term

Outlook: Likely Republican

There are credible Democratic candidates in former State House Speaker Jim Amann, Secy. of State Susan Bysiewicz, and Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy, but as far as I know Rell is still fabulously popular (as the New York Times puts it, her approval ratings read like the temperature in Honolulu) and should defeat all comers.

Florida – Charlie Crist (R) either seeking 2nd term or running for the Senate

Outlook: Likely Republican if Crist runs again, Tossup if he vacates

The new conventional wisdom seems to be that Crist is prepping to run for the Senate and will announce in a matter of days, not weeks. To sum up what would happen in that event, I’ll sum things up in four words: “open governor’s mansion, Florida”. Let the generous cash infusions from both national parties begin.

Georgia (OPEN) – Sonny Perdue (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican

This race saw an interesting shakeup recently when Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, the putative frontrunner in the Republican primary and possibly in the general election as well, bowed out suddenly based on recent health concerns (there were other rumors about what informed his decision, but we’ll not go into those). The Republican primary is absurdly crowded, even if you only note the major candidates: Secy. of State Karen Handel, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine, State Sen. Eric Johnson, Rep. Nathan Deal, and State Rep. Austin Scott. On the Democratic side, Atty. Gen. Thurbert Baker easily leads State House Minority Leader DuBose Porter and former Labor Commissioner David Poythress, but all eyes are on former Gov. Roy Barnes, who may mount a comeback and would probably be favored over Baker. After Obama’s 47% total in Georgia, Democrats are curious to test the waters either with a previous known quantity like Barnes or a well-known black candidate like Baker.

Hawaii (OPEN) – Linda Lingle (R) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup

The Republicans are lucky to have a well-known candidate like Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona, because any competent Democrat starts out favored in an open governor’s race in deep blue Hawaii (as an aside, remember circa 2004 when everyone fretted about future trends in the Aloha State?). The only Dem candidate so far is longtime Rep. Neil Abercrombie, but Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann and State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, two names perennially floated for statewide office, are each considering an entrance.

Idaho – Butch Otter (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Well, who do you have in mind?

Illinois – Pat Quinn (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Here is some food for thought from Public Policy Polling: Quinn’s approval rating is a healthy 56%, quite good for a governor in 2009’s political climate, yet Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan, a possible primary foe, leads the incumbent 45-29. Could it simply be that Madigan is more popular than Quinn? Rumor has long favored a Madigan gubernatorial run with State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias seeking the Senate seat, but the entire Blagojevich saga, and resulting ascent of the purportedly squeaky clean Quinn, may have cooled Madigan’s interest a bit. The GOP field includes at least two fairly big names in DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett and State Sen. Bill Brady, but either Quinn or Madigan would seem odds-on favorites for now.

Iowa – Chet Culver (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Like Ritter in Colorado, Culver is appearing more vulnerable than was initially suspected, but the GOP bench is weak and plenty of Democratic governors seem more obvious targets. I hear that far-right icon Rep. Steve King is mulling a run, but that hardly seems reason for Culver to tremble given Iowa’s decidedly moderate electorate.

Kansas (OPEN) – Mark Parkinson (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

It’s too bad the newly minted Governor isn’t interested in a full term, because he might actually have a fighting chance (though perhaps not against longtime Sen. Sam Brownback, probably the next Governor regardless of whom the Democrats eventually settle on).

Maine (OPEN) – John Baldacci (D) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Democratic (one assumes)

The only announced candidate right now with an electoral history is former Atty. Gen. Steve Rowe (D), after former Rep. Tom Allen declined. I’ve heard rumors about Rep. Mike Michaud, but it seems that few are yet anxious to capitalize on this once-every-eight-years opportunity.

Maryland – Martin O’Malley (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

O’Malley’s approvals are iffy but the GOP bench is virtually nonexistent, other than former Gov. Bob Ehrlich, who already lost to O’Malley in 2006.

Massachusetts – Deval Patrick (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Patrick’s approval ratings are actually rather horrendous (27-68 according to SurveyUSA). The only announced challenger is an Independent, businessman Christy Mihos, and if Patrick has anything to feel good about, it’s the lack of quality GOP possibilities in the Bay State (odd considering their 16-year reign over the governor’s mansion). There has been gossip about a serious primary challenge, and with 27% approval, one assumes there would be room for that, but nothing has materialized just yet. This is definitely one to watch, for internecine fights if nothing else.

Michigan (OPEN) – Jennifer Granholm (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

With redistricting around the corner and Michigan’s economy far worse even than the national one, this is a major concern for the Democrats. It is said that Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D) fails to impress as a stump speaker, but for now he is the odds-on primary favorite over Macomb County Sheriff Mark Hackel, MSU Trustee George Perles, State Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith, and former Flint Mayor Don Williamson (who resigned to avoid recall in February). Non-fans of Cherry’s hope to see State House Speaker Andy Dillon jump in. Major Republican candidates include Rep. Pete Hoekstra (ranking member on House Intelligence), State Sen. Tom George, Secy. of State Terri Lynn Land, and Atty. Gen. Mike Cox. The polls between Cherry and the Republicans are even at best, trending the wrong way at worst.

Minnesota – Tim Pawlenty (R) not sure whether he’ll seek 3rd term

Outlook: Tilts (not Leans) Republican if Pawlenty runs, Leans Democratic otherwise

Pawlenty has made no indications that he won’t seek a third term, but isn’t exactly jumping on a reelection campaign either. The Democratic field is crowded, with five current or former state legislators, Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, and former Sen. Mark Dayton. Until we’re clear on Pawlenty’s plans, the situation remains opaque. (And honestly, aren’t we all accustomed by now to long waits re: Minnesota electoral politics?)

Nebraska – Dave Heineman (R) seeking 2nd full term

Outlook: Safe Republican

Politics1 lists no announced or potential candidates. That about sums this one up.

Nevada – Jim Gibbons (R) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Likely Democratic pickup if Gibbons wins primary, Tossup otherwise

Last I heard Gibbons’ approval is in the 20s. The good news is that he’ll be gone after 2010; the bad news is that he may well lose the GOP primary to a superior pick like former State Sen. Joe Heck. No official Dem candidate yet, but the bench is deep considering Democrats’ dominance of statewide offices and the beginning of term limits affecting the state legislature.

New Hampshire – John Lynch (D) presumably seeking 4th term

Outlook: Safe Democratic

Lynch was reelected with 74% in 2006 and 70% in 2008, so he would have had to crash and burn since then (and I don’t think he has) to face a tough race in 2010.

New Mexico (OPEN) – Bill Richardson (D) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Democratic

Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is Richardson’s obvious successor and the Republican bench in the Land of Enchantment is as poor as ever. I suppose the dynamics could shift here, but for now, this is looking like a snooze-inducing changing of the guard.

New York – David Paterson (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup if Paterson wins primary, Likely Democratic otherwise

Did I read right when I saw his approval rating at 19%? Atty. Gen. Andrew Cuomo says he isn’t interested in running, for now, but players in the New York Democratic Party must be praying that he’s lying. Fortunately, New York is bluer than ever, but Paterson is damaged goods and someone simply must take the leap.

Ohio – Ted Strickland (D) seeking 2nd term

Outlook: Leans / Likely Democratic

Strickland’s approval is a healthy 56%, though it’s 48% on the state’s inarguable top issue, the economy. Personally, I give him kudos for somehow maintaining decent numbers while serving as Governor of economically battered Ohio during a severe recession. His only announced opponent so far is State Sen. Kevin Coughlin.

Oklahoma (OPEN) – Brad Henry (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tilts Republican pickup

This is something of a doppelganger to Hawaii. Like Linda Lingle, Henry has preserved his favorability in a politically adverse state, the incumbent party’s candidate(s) is (are) strong, but the overwhelming partisan leanings of the state give the opposition party a leg up. Democrats Jari Askins, the Lt. Governor, and Drew Edmondson, the Atty. General, are no hacks, but this state was John McCain’s best at 66-34 over Obama. Rep. Mary Fallin leads the GOP field for now, but media favorite former Rep. J.C. Watts is seriously floating his name as well.

Oregon (OPEN) – Ted Kulongoski (D) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Democratic

If Oklahoma is a sort of reverse Hawaii in 2010, Oregon is Maine’s twin. As in Maine, the Democrats, whose bench is deep, should be enthused about a chance at the top office opening up in a blue state, particularly since the incumbent Governor’s approvals were never stellar, but only a single serious candidate has yet jumped in (in this case, former Secy. of State Bill Bradbury).

Pennsylvania (OPEN) – Ed Rendell (D) term-limited

Outlook: Tossup

Along with Michigan, this will be big-ticket defense for the Democrats, and for the same reasons. In this case, history would appear to be on the Republicans’ side — Rendell has been Governor since 2002, the GOP was in power from 1994-2002, the Dems from 1986-1994, the GOP from 1978-1986, the Dems from 1970-1978, the GOP from 1962-1970, the Dems from 1954-1962…see a pattern? But history is always true until it isn’t anymore. Businessman Tom Knox is the only announced Democratic candidate but the names being bandied about are some big ones, including Pittsburgh heavyweights Dan Onorato, the Allegheny County Executive, and Jack Wagner, the state’s Auditor General. On the GOP side, Rep. Jim Gerlach is looking at the race (though the NRSC wants him to challenge Arlen Specter), while Atty. Gen. Tom Corbett is the frontrunner for now.

Rhode Island (OPEN) – Don Carcieri (R) term-limited

Outlook: Who the heck knows?

No Democrat or Republican is running yet to replace Carcieri in liberal Rhode Island. But former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (probably) is, and as an Independent. Chafee did serve in the Senate as a Republican, but now that he is a third-partyer there is little love left for him in the GOP, particularly with the Steve Laffey wing ascendant. Meanwhile, Democrats have no candidate to win what should be a slam dunk pickup. This could be interesting…

South Carolina (OPEN) – Mark Sanford (R) term-limited

Outlook: Likely Republican

Compared to Alabama and Georgia, the Palmetto State Democratic bench is weak. The current odds-on favorite to replace Sanford is backbencher Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), and rumors abound of a run by Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who would give Barrett a competitive primary. For now, it’s hard to see Democrats running seriously here.

South Dakota (OPEN) – Mike Rounds (R) term-limited

Outlook: Safe Republican assuming Rep. Herseth Sandlin (D) doesn’t run

The gossip about Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) has visibly died down, so drama will likely be reserved for the Republican primary (currently headlined by Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and State Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson).

Tennessee (OPEN) – Phil Bredesen (D) term-limited

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

State Senate Minority Leader Roy Herron, former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, and businessman Mike McWherter (son of former Gov. Ned McWherter), are credible choices on the Democratic side, but momentum has long been with the Republicans in Tennessee (along with Louisiana, West Virginia, Arkansas, and Oklahoma, it was one of five states to move against the Democrats and Obama in the 2008 presidential election compared to 2004). Between Shelby County D.A. Bill Gibbons, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, State Senate Speaker Ron Ramsey, and Rep. Zach Wamp, the GOP should be well positioned to snatch this one (for redistricting purposes, Democrats should stay focused on races for the evenly divided state House).

Texas – Rick Perry (R) seeking 3rd full term

Outlook: Likely Republican

My gut tells me all statewide races in Texas should automatically be put as Safe Republican unless specific conditions indicate otherwise, but the lack of certainty about this race’s development forces me to stay open-minded. As we all know, Perry faces a stiff and long-anticipated (by long-anticipated, I mean that it’s been chatted about for eight years at least) primary challenge from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Hutchison was expected to trounce Perry, but the governor’s recent appeal to far-right secessionists and fundamentalists seems to have helped his viability against the famously popular Hutchison. And the Democrats? Former Ambassador to Japan Tom Schieffer and — yup — Kinky Friedman.

Vermont – Jim Douglas (R) seeking 5th term

Outlook: Tilts Republican

Douglas has routinely maintained good approvals and capitalized on a divided left due to Vermont’s electorally strong Progressive Party, but the Democrats seem ready to give him a real race in 2010, with Secy. of State Deb Markowitz and State Sen. Doug Racine (who lost to Douglas by a hair in 2002) both announced candidates. If the third parties sit this one out for once, there may be a real shot at turning Vermont’s state government wholly blue, especially with an energized left in the wake of gay marriage’s statewide enactment.

Wisconsin – Jim Doyle (D) seeking 3rd term

Outlook: Tossup / Tilts Democratic

Doyle’s fundraising hints at a third bid, and familiar Republicans like former Rep. Mark Neumann and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker are lining up to take him on. With Doyle’s approvals a measly 32-63, color me surprised that more commentators aren’t characterizing him as seriously vulnerable.

Wyoming (OPEN???) – Dave Freudenthal (D) term-limited?

Outlook: Safe Democratic if Freudenthal runs, Likely Republican pickup otherwise

Freudenthal is term-limited, but has been floating the idea of challenging the state’s term limit law in court, particularly since similarly worded state legislative term limits were overturned as unconstitutional a few years ago. Everyone seems to agree that Freudenthal is nearly unbeatable as an incumbent, but that few Democrats stands a chance in his absence.

OVERALL OUTLOOK: Gubernatorial races are looking to be the most fluid of elections in 2010, between term limits and a bevy of possible game-changing decisions by big names. With Democrats likely to stay firmly in the driver’s seat on Capitol Hill, Republicans would be wise to look for rebirth in governor’s mansions, as the gubernatorial map runs far less favorable to the Democrats in 2010, at least upon first glance. While the GOP will likely make a big sacrifice in California, and may be forced to defend Florida seriously should Crist seek the Senate seat, the Democrats will be playing major defense in New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, three key states for redistricting (Ohio is not yet in the bag either). Meanwhile, plenty of sitting governors sit on less than fantastic approval ratings, and many seem primed for an electoral scare. Of all offices being contested in 2010, governor’s mansions are, at this early date, on track to host the most volatile, crowded, and unpredictable election fights…and considering the implications (governors’ future high profiles, the role states as laboratories for national policy, and the more pedestrian question of redistricting), we should all be paying attention.

Monmouth University/Gannett (pdf) (4/23-27, registered voters, 1/12-14 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 35 (38)

Chris Christie (R): 39 (36)

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 37 (45)

Steve Lonegan (R): 33 (29)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

These polls showing Jon Corzine losing to Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor’s race are getting pretty repetitive, but this one caught my eye because I can’t quite tell whether Corzine is coming or going. On the one hand, Monmouth’s trendlines show marked decline for Corzine, who went from winning by 2 in January to losing by 4 now against US Attorney Chris Christie, and barely beating former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan instead of stomping him. Corzine’s favorables are also down to 43/47, down from 49/38 in January.

On the other hand, Corzine didn’t start trailing in any polls until January, and a 4-point deficit is Corzine’s best showing in months among any pollster. (He was down by 7 in the mid-April poll from Quinnipiac, which actually was improvement over March’s numbers. And he was down by 9 in the early April poll from FDU.) So, I’m wondering to what extent Corzine’s fate is inextricably linked to the economy, and if he, like everything else around us, hit some sort of bottom in recent months and is slowly starting to tick up.

Quinnipiac (4/14/-20, registered voters, March 2009 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38 (37)

Chris Christie (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 14 (15)

(MoE: 2.1%)

Strategic Vision (R) (4/17-19, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 36

Chris Christie (R): 47

Undecided: 16

(MoE: 3%)

Both pollsters also test Corzine against a variety of lesser GOP candidates, and the numbers are pretty dispiriting – mostly a series of small leads for Corzine, but that’s due to name rec.

It’s the GOP primary where things get funkadelic. Strategic Vision gives Christie a 40-15 lead over his nearest competitor, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan. But Q-pac has Christie up 39-24 among RVs and just 46-37 among LVs. I suppose we’d rather face the more conservative Lonegan, but does he have time to pull it out? The primary is on June 2nd. I’m not even sure how big a difference it would make – Q has them tied at 41, even though Lonegan is unknown by 72% of the state.

One interesting side-note: The same Q-Poll (different press release) finds that New Jersey voters approve of gay marriage by a 49-43 margin, a twelve-point shift in favor from two years ago. These numbers aren’t quite like the 14-point margin in favor in neighboring New York, but perhaps Corzine will start pushing this issue nonetheless.

NJ has civil unions, but a state panel found in December that they don’t provide full equality and recommended passage of a gay marriage bill. Corzine said he’d sign such legislation, but he hasn’t made it a signature issue like David Paterson has – yet. Even though only a small plurality supports gay marriage, it might nonetheless make political sense to push it. If Corzine does win, it’ll almost certainly be by a very narrow margin, and Karl Rove showed you can win elections like that by playing hard to issues which sharply divide the electorate, as long as slightly more voters are on your side.

New Jersey is intimately familiar with bitter, partisan races, and if Corzine wants to survive, he might have to wage some serious trench warfare.

• NY-20 (pdf): This morning’s official tally from the BoE gives Scott Murphy a whopping lead of 268. This new number reflects the addition of all the remaining absentees from Columbia County, where Murphy performed well on Election Day and apparently even better among absentees. There are still 1,200 absentee ballots that haven’t been counted because they were subject to challenge; they’ll be reviewed starting Monday.

Jim Tedisco isn’t waiting around for those ballots, though; he’s already asking the courts to declare him the victor. Wait… what? Isn’t he the one who’s behind? (The Tedisco camp has tried to clarify that they were re-filing a motion that they filed on Election Day, to also have Tedisco declared the winner, as some sort of ‘insurance policy.’ OK, that makes me feel much better.)

• CA-10: BigDust broke the story yesterday in diaries: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, seeing his gubernatorial campaign sputtering and lured by the siren call of a term-limits-free job, has more-or-less confirmed that the rumors are true and he’s jumping into the 10th District special election, where state senator Mark DeSaulnier had already nailed down the ‘establishment’ candidate mantle. (Unlike other frequent job-hopper Tom McClintock, Garamendi actually has the advantage of living in the district.)

• KY-Sen, SD-Sen: The message can’t get much clearer than this. Mitch McConnell is hosting a fundraiser in the state of Kentucky for his fellow senator… John Thune? That’s right; McConnell would rather help a guy from South Dakota defending a safe seat than help his fellow Kentuckian Jim Bunning, who has already been complaining about how McConnell is sucking up all the fundraising oxygen in the state.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd may have raised a million bucks last quarter, but only five donors were from his home state of Connecticut. And before you can say “But what about donations below $200 which don’t require detailed disclosure?”, we’ll just point out that Dodd took in under $2,300 total from that category of donors. Sigh. (D)

On the plus side for Dodd, he got a hearty endorsement and a promise of future help from someone a little more popular than him: Barack Obama. “Chris is going through a rough patch,” says Obama.

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes raised $225K this quarter, which doesn’t seem like a whole lot, does it? (D)

• NJ-Gov: Governor Jon Corzine, facing a tough re-election, has another problem: his gross income last year was negative $2.75 million. You’ve got to assume that his overall net worth (once estimated at $300 million) has taken a much, much larger hit, so that calls into question his willingness, if not ability, to moneybomb the race as he did with his last two runs for office.

• TX-Gov: I never thought I’d have to say this out loud, but Governor Rick Perry may not have a winning issue on his hands when he makes veiled secession threats. A Rasmussen snap-poll finds that 75% of Texans would prefer to remain a part of the USA. 18% prefer secession, and 7% just aren’t sure. Not coincidentally, a similar percentage of the Texas state senate (71%) just voted, 22-9, to ignore Perry and accept the $550 million in federal stimulus money to keep their state unemployment trust fund from going broke.

• Words: Here’s a fun time-suck: a website that lets you create a word cloud for most-used words in a particular day, week, month, or year in the Congressional Record, or for a particular lawmaker.

• NJ-Gov: The latest poll of the New Jersey governor’s race shows that things aren’t getting any worse for Jon Corzine, but he is settling into a deep rut. Fairleigh Dickinson finds that he loses 42-33 to Chris Christie, the same 9-pt margin as their previous poll one month ago (41-32). Corzine’s approval rating is 40/49, and he beats even nuttier GOPer Steve Lonegan by only 37-36. There is some good news, though: he’d still win in a Democratic primary, if for some reason senate president Richard Codey or Newark mayor Corey Booker challenged him.

Could An incumbent Democratic governor of New Jersey come back after trailing by double digits in the polls for most of the campaign? It happened once before, when Gov. Brendan Byrne beat Republican Raymond Bateman, despite being down as much as twelve points in September of 1977. “Hopeful” at Blue Jersey does some excellent digging through the archives to tell Byrne’s story. (D)

• VA-Gov: National politics just injected itself into the Virginia governor’s race in a big way, as the GOP-held House of Delegates rejected $125 million in federal stimulus funds that would have extended unemployment benefits. Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob McDonnell supported his party’s callous move.

• AK-Sen: Ted Stevens just filed his exploratory paperwork to get his old job back, by running for senator in 2014 (when he’ll be 91). Don’t actually expect to see Ted 2.0, though; his spokesman says it’s just a receptacle to receive donations that came in after the November election.

• FL-Sen, NH-Sen: In other unlikely comeback news, though, this one appears to be for real: Bob Smith, the former senator from New Hampshire, has filed the paperwork to run for Senate again… in Florida, where he now lives. This seems odd, since there are political titans jostling for the Florida nomination while the New Hampshire nomination still seems to be pretty much free for the asking. (As an indication of how far down the totem pole the NH GOP is looking, Ovide Lamontagne, last seen losing the 1996 gubernatorial race, is now eyeing NH-Sen.)

• AR-Sen: Mediocre polling and pressure on EFCA seem to have gotten Blanche Lincoln worried, but she may be able to breathe a little easier after her first quarter fundraising haul: $1.7 million, with $1 million of that coming at a campaign kickoff event headlined by Joe Biden.

• MI-Gov: Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson has announced that he won’t seek the GOP nomination for the governor’s race next year. Patterson narrowly led the primary field in a recent poll, so that leaves a wide-open field with a possible advantage to 2nd-place finisher Rep. Pete Hoekstra.

• TN-Gov: State senator Roy Herron entered the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, joining former state house majority leader Kim McMillan and Nashville businessman Ward Cammack. Mike McWherter, son of former governor Ned McWherter, also seems a likely candidate.

• PA-06: We have at least a warm body lined up in PA-06: Doug Pike, who hasn’t held elected office but wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer for a number of years, was an aide to Paul Tsongas, and is the son of Rep. Otis Pike (of New York). A better-known candidate may still crop up, especially if Rep. Jim Gerlach follows through on his likely plans to bail on his increasingly-Democratic seat (Obama won 58-41) and run for Pennsylvania governor instead.

Many of you are aware that New Jersey is one of the two states with high profile Governor races in 2009, and some of you may know that former US attorney and Bush toadie, Chris Christie is the republican frontrunner to challenge Governor Jon Corzine.  And as of now, Christie has jumped out to a pretty big lead (between 10-15 points) based largely on a reputation of a tough prosecutor as well as being undefined and dodging every issue and making statements which are long on buzzwords but short on meaning.

I don’t have to give many examples of what happens when someone who is largely undefined, flies under the radar with a false persona and doesn’t do much other than repeat slogans and more-of-the-same republican talking points gets into a high level Executive office.  But when it is someone who has very questionable and deep ties to many of the worst parts of the Bush administration and has questionable loyalties – even more so in the ever deepening blue northeast – it is more than a local or regional matter.

So, it is time to start spreading the word about who Chris Christie really is – something that I have been doing in bits and pieces for close to 2 years since he first found himself on and then mysteriously off of the short list of US attorneys to be fired and the questionable events surrounding his appearance and disappearance from “the list”.  Oh yeah, his brother was also involved in a securities fraud suit while a top executive at Spear, Leeds & Kellogg while Christie was US attorney in a neighboring district, he somehow got more favorable treatment then all but a handful of the 20 people charged.

But I’ll touch on that a bit below – as the first thing that will give you a sense of what type of republican Christie would be as Governor and why it is so dangerous for him to continue to fly under the radar is an interview that he did with Brian Lehrer just the other day.  I’ll spare you the full 25 minutes here, but there are a few things that must be pointed out.  I mentioned him being the “Jersey Jindal”, and that is because of Jindal’s comments about not accepting stimulus money under certain conditions, and that is precisely what Christie said he would do as well.  Yes, another in league with “those republican Governors”.   Here is the exact quote in context as a short audio clip where he says just that.  

As we are about to make the entire Northeast (save a district here or there) blue, can we really afford to have this petty nonsensical partisan failure of a strategy at a time when there is a tremendous economic crisis in the country (and the state as well)?

His interviews and remarks tend to take on the generic republican “buzzword Mad Libs” template, and he was called on it during the interview.   His response? (audio at the link and transcript here – emphasis mine)

LEHRER: “A number of people want me to follow up again on the back and forth we had about what you would actually cut, because they said you never gave a specific answer to what you would cut, even if you wouldn’t do the same spending policies as Governor Corzine.”

CHRISTIE: “Well listen, I think again, that you know, I know people love to continue to press on that, but the fact of the matter is that Governor Corzine has a responsibility for putting together this budget and my responsibility is to critique what he’s done.”

Um…..for someone who is in the middle of the interview process for New Jersey Governor, he damn well has a responsibility to do more than just critique it.   How about an actual idea or two? other than (as he quotes), “some people are going to have to lose jobs”

That is what we have heard from the republican frontrunner for Governor in New Jersey:  People have to lose jobs and I won’t accept stimulus money.

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As I said above, there are a lot of other things about Christie that would make anyone shudder over and above the fact that we know that he wants to be called the Governor but hasn’t done or said anything to show what he would actually do as or why he wants to be the Governor.  While I’ll get into them in more detail over the next few months, here are some of the “highlights”:

• He accepted of disgraced former Mayor Giuliani’s endorsement for Governor, disregarding the fact that Giuliani took public money, tax dollars, intended to help the disabled and the poor and used it to cheat on his wife.  That’s supposed to be the kind of politician Christie hates so much it makes his head spin.  That’s supposed to be the guy Christie puts in jail.
• He awarded a lucrative no-bid contract to former boss and Attorney General John Ashcroft’s firm worth between $28 and $52 million, as well as directed similar monitoring contracts in 2007 to two other former Justice Department colleagues from the Bush administration as well as to a former Republican state attorney general in New Jersey.  If these weren’t questionable enough on their own, why didn’t Christie or Ashcroft want to testify and clear their names in this matter?
• Christie owes his political career to the Bushies, as he was a “Bush Pioneer” in 2000, meaning that he raised over $100,000 for the campaign
• Most interestingly, the story of how he got on and off the US attorney firing list has never been resolved or questioned.  In short, in January 2006, Chris Christie was on a list of US Attorney’s who were being looked at for replacement.  Then, in September 2006, in the midst of a hard-fought US Senate campaign being dominated by accusations of corruption, Chris Christie authorizes a last minute subpoena that plays into Tom Kean Jr.’s political attacks against Bob Menendez.  Miraculously, in November 2006, after the election is over, Chris Christie is taken off the list and allowed to keep his job.

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Any one of these bullet points is questionable enough.  All of them taken together blow a hole right through the “caped crusader” façade that he has built.  Added to his bobblehead approach to running for Governor, and you have a perfect storm of political incuriosity, party first mentality and questionable ethics.

This country, and the good people of New Jersey, can’t afford to have someone of those characteristics in a position to appoint replacement Senators, act as a fair executive with the people of the state’s interests first and be in charge of the administration of elections – even more so with one of the least reliable voting machines in the country.

• NJ-Gov: Another day, another ugly poll for Jon Corzine. This time, it’s this month’s installment of the Quinnipiac poll. Not much change from last month: Chris Christie leads Corzine 46-37, up a bit from 44-38. This despite 61% of voters not knowing enough about Christie to form an opinion of him!

• KY-Sen: Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson may be the guy on the GOP’s wish list for the Kentucky Senate seat, but he said yesterday that he’s running for Senate only if Jim Bunning retires. (What are the odds on that?) Meanwhile, state senate president David Williams is accusing Grayson and Bunning of being in cahoots to shut him out of the race. Good times.

• CT-Sen: You gotta love Joe Lieberman, always there to lend a helping hand. Lieberman announced that he’s supporting Chris Dodd for re-election, even though Dodd supported, y’know, the Democrat in the 2006 general. As Lanny Davis puts it, “Being a mensch and a friend is more important than carrying a grudge.”

• CO-04: Nice to see that someone can get a job in this economy: Marilyn Musgrave has emerged from months of post-defeat seclusion to take a leadership position with something called the Susan B. Anthony List, apparently a bizarro-world EMILY’s List that supports anti-abortion female candidates for office. (No word on whether Anthony plans to sue to get her name back.) It’s unclear whether this is permanent or Musgrave is staying close to donors until a rematch in CO-04.

• KS-01, KS-04: Mike Huckabee (who overwhelmingly won the Kansas caucuses) is wading into the primaries to fill the two safe GOP seats left vacant by the Jerry Moran/Todd Tiahrt scrum for the open senate seat. He’s endorsing state senator Tim Huelskamp in KS-01 and state senator Dick Kelsey in KS-04. RNC member Mike Pompeo is also expected to run in KS-04, while ex-aide to Sam Brownback Rob Wasinger and businessman Tim Barker are already running in KS-01.

• Maps: Here’s a nice resource to bookmark, from Ruy Teixeira and the Center for American Progress: it’s a collection of interactive maps showing state-by-state 04-08 and 88-08 shifts, along with piles of 08 exit poll data.

• MN-Sen: As if you needed one more reason not to donate to Republicans, the Norm Coleman campaign accidentally made public 4.3 GB of donors’ personal data, including credit card numbers and security information.

Fairleigh Dickinson Univ. (2/25-3/2, registered voters, 1/2-1/7 in parentheses):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 32 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 41 (33)

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 36 (46)

Steve Lonegan (R): 32 (28)

(MoE: ±4%)

Chris Christie (R): 43 (32)

Steve Lonegan (R): 15 (15)

Rick Merkt (R): 1 (5)

Brian Levine (R): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±6%)

Jon Corzine seems to be joining neighboring governor David Paterson in a race to the bottom, losing steam as the state’s economy falters. He trails US Attorney Chris Christie by 9, compared with a 7-point lead in January (prior to Christie’s announcement of his candidacy). These numbers are consistent with Corzine’s mediocre approve/disapprove of 40/46.

Christie still must get through a primary, most prominently against former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan, who seems to be running to Christie’s right. I have to wonder if Corzine’s best hope would be to spend his buckets of money now to make sure that the wingnutty Lonegan wins the primary (a la the Dems’ gaming the system in the 2002 Riordan/Simon primary in California)… otherwise, he’ll be digging a lot deeper into his pockets, and having to bank on economic recovery, in November.

UPDATE: Ooops, look like we never got around to reporting Quinnipiac‘s last poll of this race from 1/29-2/2, which had Christie up 44-38. We have enough information now that Pollster has some trendlines up, and the results ain’t pretty.

Rasmussen (1/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 42

Other: 5

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4%)

I remain convinced that this race is not like the last however many statewide races in New Jersey, where a not especially well-liked Dem beat a much less likable Republican. Perhaps Corzine can be saved by his money and Obama and Biden campaigning for him. Perhaps.

And maybe Christie will sputter once he hits the trail in earnest – this is his first real run for office, apart from an election some years ago as a Morris County freeholder. (A “freeholder” is New Jersey’s term for a county legislator.) Then again, Christie Whitman’s entire elective experience before beating Jim Florio in 1993? Somerset County freeholder.

UPDATE: Another poll, this one from Monmouth University (1/12-14, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38

Chris Christie (R): 36

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 45

Steve Lonegan (R): 29

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41

Rick Merkt (R): 27

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44

Brian Levine (R): 27

(MoE: ±4.8%)

Levine (whom we did not canvass in our look at FDU’s recent poll) is the supposedly moderate Republican mayor of Franklin Twp., a largely Democratic township of about 50,000 people in wealthy Somserset County, located in north-central Jersey. I don’t believe Levine has formally declared yet, but he has formed an exploratory committee.

Farleigh Dickinson (1/2-7, registered voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 33

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 46

Steve Lonegan (R): 28

Undecided: 26

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 43

Rick Merkt (R): 23

Undecided: 33

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Chris Christie is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey who just filed papers to run. He’s been touted for a while, and from the looks of at least this poll, he could make it a serious contest. And with Obama about to take office, Christie will be replaced (zomg! Obama’s politicizing the DOJ!), so he’ll be able to devote his full attention to this race.

Lonegan is the hyper-conservative former mayor of Bogota, a north Jersey “borough” with a population roughly the size of modern-day Wasilla, Alaska. He also took a stab at this race four years ago, coming in fourth in the seven-person primary won by Doug Forrester. Merkt, meanwhile, is a state Assemblyman who represents a district that’s also in northern New Jersey. Both declared in 2008.

I’d be pretty surprised if Christie didn’t win the primary. Jersey Republicans haven’t won a single statewide race since 1997, but ever since wingnut Brett Schundler’s disastrous run for governor in 2001, they’ve typically been able to put forth their least-sucky candidates. And right now, Christie is in the driver’s seat for the primary:

Christie: 32

Lonegan: 15

Merkt: 5

Undecided: 47

The self-funder Corzine will have no shortage of cash, but his favorables are under water at 42-44 (his job approval is a bit better, 46-40). With a wretched economic climate as backdrop, he’ll likely have a titanic struggle on his hands if Christie can prove himself at all competent as a campaigner. The scary thing is that Christie only has 44% name rec in the poll. That’s a lot of room to grow. Corzine should be very concerned.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)