Tag: NM-Gov

Taking the last non-Rasmussen polls (four as maximum) and calculating the average between the key numbers of the polls we have the next rank:

(Begining from the number of democratic senate seats and the number of democratic governors what need not run for reelection this year, the first number mean the number of democratic senate seats and governors what dems would have winning until every race of the list.)

(When I tell not the number of polls is because they are four or more)

(I bold emphasize the race with a negative poll what include an outsider key value what make down the average).

RANK OF SENATE AND GUBERNATORIAL RACES BY LAST NO-RASMUSSEN POLLS AVERAGE

41 senate seats in the democratic caucus need not run this year.

07 democratic governors need not run this year.

And taking L Chafee and C Crist as friendly candidates:

42S +??.??% VT-Sen 0 polls

43S +??.??% MD-Sen 0 polls

44S +??.??% HI-Sen 0 polls

08G +38.50% AR-Gov 2 polls

09G +37.75% NY-Gov

45S +36.67% NY-Sen 3 polls

10G +23.50% NH-Gov

46S +22.75% OR-Sen

47S +21.00% NY-Sen(s)

11G +20.00% RI-Gov 2 polls

48S +19.25% CT-Sen

49S +15.67% WI-Sen 3 polls

12G +10.67% HI-Gov 3 polls

13G +09.00% AZ-Gov

14G +07.67% CT-Gov 3 polls

15G +07.50% MA-Gov

16G +07.00% MD-Gov

17G +06.25% CA-Gov

50S +06.25% WA-Sen

51S +06.00% FL-Sen

18G +05.25% OH-Gov

19G +04.00% NM-Gov 2 polls

52S +04.00% CA-Sen

53S +03.00% OH-Sen

20G +02.00% MN-Gov

21G +02.50% OR-Gov 2 polls

22G +02.00% VT-Gov 1 poll

23G +01.75% CO-Gov

54S +01.50% CO-Sen

55S +01.25% PA-Sen

56S +01.00% MO-Sen

57S +00.75% NV-Sen

24G =??.??% ME-Gov 0 polls

25G – 00.50% IL-Gov

**** – 00.75% NJ-Gov

58S – 01.50% IL-Sen

26G – 01.50% GA-Gov

59S – 04.25% KY-Sen

60S – 04.75% NC-Sen

**** – 05.75% MA-Sen

27G – 06.00% TX-Gov

28G – 06.25% WI-Gov

29G – 06.50% FL-Gov

61S – 09.25% NH-Sen

30G – 10.00% SC-Gov 1 polls

31G – 11.00% NV-Gov

62S – 11.00% IN-Sen 2 polls

32G – 11.75% IA-Gov

33G – 12.67% AL-Gov 3 polls

34G – 13.00% PA-Gov

35G – 13.00% SD-Gov 1 poll

63S – 14.25% LA-Sen

**** – 14.25% VA-Gov

64S – 15.00% DE-Sen 2 polls

36G – 15.25% MI-Gov

65S – 15.25% AR-Sen

66S – 16.00% IA-Sen

37G – 16.25% OK-Gov

…

I take as the negative outsider polls, the polls what have a difference of -9.50 or more with the average (higher with the other polls for the race).

This is a rank of outsider values:

(The first number is the difference between the outsider value and the average for the race).

– 12.50% NH-Gov by PPP

– 11.00% PA-Gov by Muhlenberg College

– 10.75% MN-Gov by Survey USA

– 10.00% NM-Gov by Survey USA

– 10.00% IA-Sen by PPP

– 09.75% OR-Sen by Survey USA

– 09.75% WI-Gov by St Norbert College

– 09.50% IL-Gov by PPP

– 09.50% OR-Gov by Survey USA

The two colleges seems local pollsters attacking the democratic prospect in PA and WI. I worry about WI-Gov race because I think should be better than this and no-one is polling the race. Without the outsider poll, the average for WI-Gov race would be – 02.25%.

Survey USA seems begin a campaign for include outsider values for the races with lower number of polls (the poll for WA-Sen was too an outsider value but is not included because they are more recent polls for the race). ME-Gov with 0 polls and VT-Gov with 1 poll are good candidates for the next Survey USA poll in this strategy.

Just Survey USA polls create the alone positive outsider values at this level (+9.50 or more) because the average between the key value of two polls is in the middle of both values and if one is included as outsider, both values get as outsiders. A third poll would show what is the real outsider value.

And PPP has too some unpleasant polls. The dems from NH (the value for NH-Sen is not an outsider but is very bad too), IA and IL (Obama’s home state) are not favored by PPP what gives to they negative outsider key values in the polls. The new PPP poll of IL-Sen and IL-Gov races included after the updates, improves the previous numbers but still makes down the average of both races to negative numbers.

Of course all the races with positive average are races for fight and try win. And someone of the races with negative average can be too for fight but the democratic candidates need emerge. In the poll of the diary are included the 20 first races with negative average in the moment of write the diary (before the updates).

I will update the diary with the results of the new polls while the diary continues in the frontpage of SSP. I include too the reference of the NJ-Gov, MA-Sen and VA-Gov races with the average of the last four polls just before the elections of 2009 and 2010.

AR-Sen: Mark Blumenthal has a detailed post-mortem of the polling in the Arkansas senate runoff, including some off-the-record claims that both Halter’s and Lincoln’s internal polling showed Lincoln ahead. I sort of wonder why Lincoln didn’t put out these numbers, if true.

CT-Sen: Several big-name Republican fundraisers are hosting an event for none other than Joe Lieberman, to benefit his 2012 re-election campaign. Some of the hosts include Robbie Aiken, Wayne Berman, Rachel Pearson, and Kathryn Rand. Obviously an outright party switch is always possible with this fuckin’ guy.

FL-Sen: Wow, so there really is a Democrat who wants death panels (more or less). Maurice Ferre, himself 75 years old, said in a meeting with the Palm Beach Post editorial board:

“Well, you know what, when you get to be 85 or 90 years old, you’re going to die. And I’m sorry, you call it, Sarah Palin, what you want, but the fact is that it is absurd for us to be spending the types of money we’re spending to extend life three months.”

Asked what he’d do as a Senator to control such costs, Ferre said: “I would absolutely say that this is the cap on how much is available for you to spend at age 90, 87, with a heart condition of this sort, with diabetes of this sort, two legs missing and, you know, this is how much is available for you to spend. And you spend it any way you want.”

There are other ways to lose races in Florida, but this is the simplest and most direct.

KY-Sen: Mitch McConnell’s sticking in his bite-guard and gritting his teeth hard to do a fundraiser for Roark Rand Paul later this month. Believe it or not, we happened to get the advance text of Paul’s prepared remarks for the event:

Throughout the ages, the finger painter, the Play-Doh sculptor, the Lincoln Logger stood alone against the daycare teacher of her time. She did not live to earn approval stamps. She lived for herself, that she might achieve things that are the glory of all humanity. These are my terms; I do not care to play by any others. And now, if the court will allow me, it’s naptime.

NV-Sen: The Big Dog is coming to the Silver State to do a campaign rally for Handsome Harry Reid next week – who won’t actually be there because the Senate will be in session. No word on whether a fundraiser is also on tap.

PA-Sen: Pat Toomey is taking some heat for a long-ago resume item: He used to work on Wall Street – in derivatives trading, no less.

SC-Sen: Alvin Greene, the mysterious Dem senate nominee in South Carolina, says he won’t drop out of the race, in spite of the state party’s call for him to bail in the wake of revelations that he was arrested on an obscenity charge last fall. Then again, Scott Lee Cohen said he wouldn’t bow out, either.

KS-Gov: Dem gubernatorial hopeful Tom Holland picked fellow state Sen. Kelly Kultala, considered something of a rising star in KS politics, as his running mate. The two formally kicked off their campaign yesterday.

NM-Gov, WI-07: In NM-Gov, we mentioned a little while back that Dem LG Diane Denish is hitting GOP nominee Susana Martinez’s record as a prosecutor in TV ads, specifically targeting her conviction rate. A related issue is coming up in WI-07, where Dems are charging ex-prosecutor Sean Duffy with misusing his (very recently) former office to compile conviction statistics helpful to his political campaign.

SC-Gov: Mitt Romney, who endorsed Nikki Haley back in March, is heading back down to the Palmetto state to campaign for her once more. Haley faces a runoff against Rep. Gresham Barrett on June 22nd.

AK-AL: Former communications exec Sheldon Fisher is running ads against his primary opponent, GOP Rep. Don Young, portraying himself as the “new conservative choice.” Kudos to the AP for reporting that the ad buy is $40,000 in size – not much by conventional standards, perhaps, but that money ought to go a lot further in Alaska.

IN-03: So this is pretty bizarre. Ex-Rep. Mark Souder, who recently resigned on account of having an extra-marital affair with a staffer, sent an odd message on Facebook concerning his likely successor, state Sen. Marlin Stutzman. On the one hand, he says Stutzman is “probably best qualified” to fill his spot. But then, explains the AP:

In one paragraph, he says Stutzman knew nothing of the affair and therefore couldn’t have tipped off the media. In another, he mentions that Stutzman or a political consulting firm leaked word of the affair to Fox News after getting information from the staffer’s husband, Brad Jackson a Kosciusko County commissioner.

Hmm, I thought it was Mike Pence who dimed out Souder?

MD-01: Businessman Rob Fisher is going up with an ad presenting himself as an outsider in the GOP primary. He faces the better-known state Sen. Andy Harris (the 2008 loser). BIG props to Ben Pershing at the Washington Post for nailing down these details: “The spot is running on cable stations in the Baltimore and Salisbury markets, with an initial buy of more than $70,000.”

MI-07, MI-09: President Obama did some fundraisers in Michigan earlier this week – one for the DNC, and another joint event for Reps. Gary Peters and Mark Schauer.

OH-18: Zack Space is doin’ it right: He’s launching a “six-figure” buy for an ad attacking GOP opponent Bob Gibbs as a tax-hiker and self-pay-raiser. Why do I like this move? Because Space is using his use cash edge ($1.3 mil to $0.1mil) to define Gibbs, at a time when Gibbs has only just emerged from the uncertainty of a primary recount (which he won with an absurdly pathetic 20.9%). For his part, Gibbs fired back with a popgun press release, the poor man’s television ad – very poor man’s.

VA-05: True to his word, Some Dude Jeff Clark is going ahead with his plans to run as a teabagging independent, since Rob Hurt won the GOP primary to take on Tom Perriello. In fact, Clark filed petitions with the board of elections last week. Note, though, something he hasn’t yet filed: an FEC report. Meanwhile, second-place finisher Jim McKelvey, who swore he wouldn’t support Hurt if he became the nominee, is still playing coy. Election night remarks suggested he was prepared to fall in line, but he hasn’t officially endorsed. (The other four also-rans have in fact done so.)

Polltopia: Taegan Goddard relays some blind non-quotes from random “pollsters” complaining about the alleged lack of transparency in Nate Silver’s pollster ratings – in particular, the fact that he hasn’t published his database of polls. Leaving aside the delicious irony that anonymous pollsters are complaining about transparency, I think this is a red herring. As Nate points out in a post of his own, anyone can recreate his work (with a lot of time and a little money) – and his main concern is the legal issues involved in making public a database that in part relies on information drawn from for-pay services.

CT-Gov (6/1, likely voters, 5/4 in parens):

Ned Lamont (D): 36 (42)

Thomas Foley (R): 38 (45)

Ned Lamont (D): 43 (48)

Michael Fedele (R): 34 (28)

Dan Malloy (D): 44 (38)

Thomas Foley (R): 35 (35)

Dan Malloy (D): 42 (44)

Michael Fedele (R): 28 (27)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (6/1, likely voters, 5/18 in parens):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 56 (48)

Linda McMahon (R): 33 (45)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (53)

Peter Schiff (R): 32 (37)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (6/2-3, likely voters, 5/5-6 in parens):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 33 (36)

Dan Coats (R): 47 (51)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (6/2, likely voters, 5/3 in parens):

Robin Carnahan (D): 44 (42)

Roy Blunt (R): 45 (50)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Gov (5/26, likely voters, 4/7 in parens):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (47)

John Stephen (R): 35 (37)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (55)

Jack Kimball (R): 31 (34)

John Lynch (D-inc): 51 (50)

Karen Testerman (R): 32 (33)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (6/3, likely voters, 5/25 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 42 (43)

Susana Martinez (R): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (6/2, likely voters, 5/19 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 33 (36)

Tom Corbett (R): 49 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (6/2, likely voters, 5/19 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 38 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 45 (42)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

RI-Gov (5/27, likely voters, 4/21 in parens):

Frank Caprio (D): 32 (33)

John Robitaille (R): 25 (21)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (33)

Patrick Lynch (D): 19 (24)

John Robitaille (R): 29 (26)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 37 (35)

Patrick Lynch (D): 24

Victor Moffitt (R): 28

Lincoln Chafee (I): 35

Frank Caprio (D): 35

Victor Moffitt (R): 22

Lincoln Chafee (I): 33

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (5/27, likely voters, 4/21 in parens):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 47 (45)

Chris Nelson (R): 43 (41)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 46 (50)

Kristi Noem (R): 43 (35)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (48)

Blake Curd (R): 41 (36)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Sen: We knew the SEIU wasn’t going to fuck around. Their newest (and probably final) ad buy on behalf of Bill Halter (which we mentioned yesterday) is on the order of $370K. The League of Conservation Voters is also putting down $100K for a buy of their own, also in support of Halter.

KY-Sen: Rand Paul, the son of Ayn Rand and a Somali warlord, must be dying inside: He actually felt compelled to call for more regulation of offshore drilling. Upon hearing this, a thousand Austrian School economists tried to jump off a bridge, but couldn’t find one as the free market had decided a bridge was unnecessary.

NH-Sen: Former AG Kelly Ayotte is being called to testify before a state senate committee investigating the collapse of a mortgage company called FRM which is accused of running a Ponzi scheme – and which was allowed to continue in operation while Ayotte’s department was supposedly regulating it. It’s belated, but at least someone is watching the watchmen.

AL-Gov: Artur Davis: “I have no interest in running for political office again. The voters spoke in a very decisive way across every sector and in every section of the state. A candidate that fails across-the-board like that obviously needs to find something else productive to do with his life.”

NM-Gov: Diane Denish is already out with a negative ad trying to paint GOP opponent Susana Martinez as an ineffective prosecutor, saying she went soft on DWI felons and had the worst conviction record in New Mexico. No word on the size of the buy, though the Denish campaign says, according to Heath Haussamen, that the ad “is running statewide on network and cable television.”

NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo is trying to kill off the Working Families Party. He says he doesn’t want their ballot line this fall, without which the WFP has almost no hope of getting the 50,000 votes it needs to stay on the ballot for the next four years. The party is under investigation by the Manhattan US Attorney’s Office, and hyper-ventilators like the Daily News editorial page accuse it of sponsoring a “job-killing agenda,” so you might think there’s sufficient reason for Cuomo to avoid the WFP on the merits.

But I don’t think that adds up, because few voters pay attention to this stuff, which means that Cuomo will miss out on more votes without the WFP line than he’d risk losing by accepting the party’s endorsement – so it looks like a power play to me. (Note that state lawmakers friendly to the WFP are trying to introduce legislation which would allow a party to remain on the ballot if it got 50K votes in any statewide election, which would allow the party to bootstrap itself to, say, the Schumer or Gillibrand campaigns.)

FL-08: Uh, is this really an endorsement that you want? Former state House Speaker Daniel Webster, hoping to challenge Alan Grayson in the fall, secured the backing of ex-Rep. Tom Feeney. Feeney was last seen apologizing to voters for his role in the Abramoff scandal while getting his ass kicked by Suzanne Kosmas.

ID-01: I know we all miss Vaughn Ward terribly, but I think we’ll enjoy having Raul Labrador to kick around, too. It turns out that Labrador forgot to get his cooties vaccination, because the NRCC is keeping him in one of those glove-box containment zones. GOP brass has no plans, says Politico, to add the Lab to their Young Guns list – even though it already contains an absurd 110 names. Michael Steele, though, seems to like Raul just fine (which makes sense), sending some cash to help the Idaho GOP.

AL-Ag. Comm’r: May the Flying Spaghetti Monster bless Dale Peterson:

Boy!  We put up a tough fight in round one.  The thugs made a full court press to stop me by making hundreds of thousands of “robo calls” with lies about me.  

Rest assured, Dummy and the thugs at ALFA will not go quietly – so expect them to launch a full-scale attack against John McMillan in the coming weeks as the July 13 runoff draws near.  Just remember, the word “truth” is not in their vocabulary.

Because good ol’ Dale gives a RIIIIIP about Alabama, he promises that he’s “not going away.” Hooray!

Rasmussen: Commenters here have been all over it, but Markos lays out in bright orange letters exactly how fucked up Rasmussen’s recent polling in CT-Sen and KY-Sen has been.

Let’s do a quick round-up of the results from last night’s races.

Alabama:

• AL-Gov: Who among us would have guessed that outgoing Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks would defeat Artur Davis by a 62-38 margin for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination? Artur Davis led the money race, led in all polling, and had a primary electorate with a large number of African-Americans to persuade and mobilize. This was truly his race to lose — and he did just that, in spectacular fashion. The Birmingham News is calling it “one of the more remarkable upsets in Alabama primary history”. I guess Artur Davis’ strategy of playing for the general election at the expense of the primary by playing up his votes against the Democratic agenda in Washington turned out to be a massive dud. Makes you wonder if Davis is regretting his decision to seek re-election in 2008, and thereby putting himself in the awkward position of casting votes against Obama’s agenda and campaigning in a Democratic primary.

  For the Republicans, ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne, who recently served as chancellor of the Alabama Community College System, bought a ticket to the runoff with 28% of the vote. Second place is still officially up in the air, with a recount likely between state Rep. Robert Bentley, who has 123,870 votes, and “Speak American!” businessman Tim James, who’s sitting on 123,662 votes. However, unless there was a tabulation error or a pile of uncounted absentees sitting somewhere, it’s hard to imagine James making up the ground he needs. Ten Commandments judge Roy Moore fizzled out with just 19% of the vote.

• AL-AG: Republicans soundly turfed state Attorney General Troy King by a 60-40 margin, favoring instead ’06 Lt. Governor candidate Luther Strange. The Democratic race appears to be headed for a runoff, with Montgomery attorney James Anderson just barely missing the 50% cut-off. Giles Perkins, a former executive director of the state Democratic Party, placed second.
• AL-Ag Comm’r: It’s a tough pill to swallow when Alabama Republicans decided to side with thugs and criminals over Dale Peterson. Peterson, who ran one of the teabagging-est campaigns in modern political history, only won 28% of the vote. Yard-sign stealer and absolute “dummy” Dorman Grace came in second with 35%, and John McMillan won 37%. The runoff just won’t be the same without Dale. (The winner will take on Democrat Glen Zorn, one of Ron Sparks’ deputies.)
• AL-02: Montgomery city councilwoman Martha Roby, the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, will have to slug it out in a runoff against teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber. Roby won 49% of the vote to Barber’s 29%. The winner will face Democrat Bobby Bright in November.
• AL-05: What a fun race. Parker Griffith capped off one of the more embarrassing party switches in recent history with a blow-out loss to Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks by a 51-33 margin. It was such an ignominious loss that Griffith refused to speak to the media or even show up at his election night reception to thank his supporters. Brooks will face Democrat Steve Raby, a former aide to Sen. Howell Heflin, who won his nomination with 60% of the vote over Taze Shepard, the grandson of legendary Sen. John Sparkman.

  In his election night statement, Brooks excitedly gushed: “I know who our general election opponent is: (Speaker of the House) Nancy Pelosi.” That’s very much reminiscent of the PA-12 Tim Burns playbook; and maybe it’ll have more legs in a district like this one, but it’s probably an unwise course to chart given the lack of traction Republicans have gotten when adopting such framing wholesale.

• AL-06: It’s a TARP! There was little worth seeing here as GOP incumbent Spencer Bachus defeated insurgent challenger Stan Cooke by a 76-24 margin in this impossibly red district.
• AL-07: We’re looking at a runoff between securities attorney Terri Sewell, the candidate who seems closest in style to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, and progressive Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot. Thanks to her large fundraising advantage, Sewell won the first round with 37% to Smoot’s 29%. Earl Hilliard, Jr., son of the former Representative of this district, placed third with 27%. It’s going to be a tough battle for Smoot to overcome Sewell’s vastly superior fundraising and EMILY’s List backing, but hopefully she can make something happen.

Mississippi:

• MS-01: GOP state Sen. Alan Nunnelee won the Republican nomination to face Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache in November with 52% of the vote. Underfunded teabagger Henry Ross took 33%, while former Fox News talking head Angela McGlowan, the 12th hour pick of Sarah Palin, won only 15%. McGlowan is apparently refusing to endorse Nunnelee, calling him a RINO of the first order.
• MS-04: Republican state Rep. Steven Palazzo took 57% of the vote in his primary against businessman Joe Tegerdine. Palazzo will attempt to dislodge entrenched Democratic incumbent Gene Taylor in the fall.

New Mexico:

• NM-Gov: Republicans picked former Dona Ana DA Susana Martinez over former state party chair Allen Weh by a 51-28 margin, ensuring that New Mexico will have its first female Governor in its history. (The Democratic nominee is current Lt. Gov. Diane Denish.) The general election promises to be very competitive, as Martinez has actually exhibited some strength in recent general election polling.

In lieu of our usual morning digest, here is a roundup of all the killer primaries from outer space that we’ll be liveblogging tonight. Get your scorecards ready!

Alabama:

• AL-Gov (D): Rep. Artur Davis has led Ag. Comm’r Ron Sparks in the money race and all polling that’s been made public to date. But a lot of Alabama Democrats – and especially the black political establishment – are unhappy with Davis’s conservative voting record, especially his vote against healthcare reform. This has led to persistent rumors that Davis is “in trouble,” and Sparks (who just scored an endorsement from ex-Gov. Don Siegelman) even claimed to have an internal showing the race tied. But he declined to share so much as a one-page polling memo – and if he’s right, quite a few other pollsters are wrong. (Though Nate Silver notes that polls of Southern Democratic primaries have, in recent years, been off by wider margins than in other regions.) We’ve seen some surprising primaries on the congressional level involving reps who’ve voted against HCR, but no one has yet paid the ultimate price for it. If Davis is the first, it would be a very big deal indeed. Note that there’s no possibility of a runoff, since Davis and Sparks are the only two candidates on the ballot. (D)
• AL-Gov (R): With seven candidates in a crowded field, this race is certain to be resolved in the runoff to be held on July 13th. Bradley Byrne has been considered the front-runner and is the choice of most establishment Republicans. However, as the moderate amongst his primary foes, Byrne has come under heavy criticism as opponents question his commitment to conservative causes. Interestingly, traditional Democratic interests in the state have spent heavily against Byrne in the primary. Tim James, son of former Gov. Fob James, is likely Byrne’s strongest adversary and has gained national attention with a series of controversial ads. While Byrne and James will most likely face each other again in July, Roy Moore of Ten Commandments fame still has a chance to snag a ticket to the runoff. (T)
• AL-Ag. Comm’r (R): This is it. The big one. The eyes of the nation, and indeed, the world, will fall upon the Republican primary for Commissioner of Agriculture and Industries of Alabama. Dale Peterson, a farmer, a businessman, a cop, a Marine in Vietnam, and an usher in a movie theater one summer will be battling for the GOP nod for this most prestigious office. Little needs to be said about Peterson’s opponents, Dorman Grace and John McMillan, other than the fact that it’s clear that they don’t give a rip about Alabama! The winner of this primary will face Democrat Glen Zorn, a current assistant Agriculture Commissioner and former mayor of Florala.
• AL-AG (R): One of the most vulnerable incumbents anywhere is Alabama’s Republican Attorney General Troy King. This isn’t a clear-cut establishment vs. movement primary, though; if anything, the state’s GOP legal establishment has soured on the erratic King and is backing his challenger Luther Strange. Polls give a large edge to Strange, who counts Jeff Sessions, Richard Shelby and even Gov. Bob Riley — the man who first appointed King to the position — among his backers. (C)
• AL-02 (R): Four Republicans are on the ballot for the right to challenge frosh Dem Rep. Bobby Bright. Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby is the NRCC-crowned establishment favorite, and the only candidate in the field to raise significant money. Teabagging businessman Rick “The Barber” Barber, an owner of several “billiards facilities” in the area, is next in line, followed by State Board of Education member Stephanie Bell. If Bell ever looked like a threat to Roby, her late entry (in March) and her weak fundraising (just $26K) seem to suggest her chances of making it to a runoff are weak. Former Marine John “Beau” McKinney rounds out the field. Back in February, Bright’s campaign released an internal poll showing him in surprisingly strong shape, but it’ll be interesting to see how he fares once this race becomes engaged.
• AL-05 (D): After Ron Sparks declined to switch over from the gubernatorial race, four Democrats got into the contest here: attorney and former state Board of Education member Taze Shepard (who also happens to be the grandson of the late Sen. John Sparkman); political consultant Steve Raby, a longtime chief-of-staff to Sen. Howell Heflin (the guy who succeeded Sparkman); attorney and former Air Force JAG officer Mitchell Howie; and physicist David Maker. The race is largely between Shepard and Raby, who have hit each other with negative TV ads in recent weeks: Shepard has attacked Raby for being a “lobbyist,” while Raby fired back that Shepard mismanaged the U.S. Space & Rocket Center (home of Space Camp) during his tenure as a commissioner overseeing the center. Though Shepard leads in the money department, he’s mostly been self-financed. Meanwhile, Raby has secured a good bit of establishment backing, including an endorsement from former Rep. Ronnie Flippo, who held this seat from 1977 to 1991. An internal poll for Shepard had him up 20-14 over Raby, but with 58% undecided. A runoff seems likely here. (D)
• AL-05 (R): Democrats everywhere will be watching this race closely to see if turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith gets teabagged to death in the wake of his party switch. He faces two rivals in the primary: Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks and businessman Les Phillip. Though Phillip has raised considerably more money than Brooks, his burn rate marks him as a client/victim of BMW Direct. Consequently, most of the “true conservatives” who are unhappy with Griffith’s attempt to bogart their nomination have rallied around Brooks, who has even been the target of a Griffith attack ad – not something you usually see from an incumbent. There’s a good chance we’ll see a runoff here between these two. (D)
• AL-06 (R): Spencer Bachus isn’t what you’d normally think of as vulnerable; he’s a conservative Republican in one of the reddest districts in the nation, in Birmingham’s suburbs. However, establishment GOPers like Bachus have reason to worry this year because of the GOP’s restive base. He in particular may have a target on his back as ranking House Republican on Financial Services, and as an architect of TARP. Bachus faces teabagger Stan Cooke; leaving nothing to chance, he’s already spent $680K on his primary. (C)
• AL-07 (D): The Democratic primary in the race to replace Rep. Artur Davis is the only election which matters in this 72% Obama district. The three chief contenders are: state Rep. Earl Hilliard, Jr., the son of the guy Davis primaried out of this seat in 2002, Earl Hilliard, Sr.; Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot; and securities lawyer Terri Sewell. Hilliard and Smoot until recently had the edge in name recognition, but only Sewell, who began as an unknown, has had the money to air TV ads. While early internal polling showed this to be a race between Hilliard and Smoot, Sewell’s spending has almost certainly had an impact, and her own poll had the race a three-way tie a couple of weeks ago. A runoff seems almost certain here. (D)

Mississippi:

• MS-01 (R): For a while there, it looked like former FOX News talking head Angela McGlowan posed a threat to the NRCC’s favorite candidate in the race against twice-elected Dem Rep. Travis Childers, Tupelo-area state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. But her campaign has fizzled, bringing in only $85,000 for the primary compared to nearly $650,000 for Nunnelee. However, a Democratic 527 called “Citizens for Security and Strength” recently entered the fray, spending money on mail and robocalls against Nunnelee in the hopes of aiding Henry Ross, the teabagging former mayor of Eupora. Ross hasn’t raised much money either (just $127K), but it’ll be interesting if his outsider message (and the Dem attacks) will stick.
• MS-04 (R): In a year like this, you’ve gotta keep an eye on old dogs in deep red districts like this one. Republicans have mostly nominated driftwood against Democrat Gene Taylor in the past decade despite his district’s comically insane R+20 Cook PVI. However, it looks like Taylor will have to actually exert himself this year, as Republicans have fielded a bona fide elected official, state Rep. Steven Palazzo, to run against him. Palazzo will first have to get past businessman Joe Tegerdine, though, and the race has already gotten a bit testy, with Palazzo charging that Tegerdine works for a Chinese corporation, and Tegerdine jabbing Palazzo for being too scared and/or lazy to show up to any debates.

New Mexico:

• NM-Gov (R): The Republican field in New Mexico was left in a sort of second-tier disarray when ex-Rep. Heather Wilson decided to pass on the race. Polling shows the two main contestants here to be Susana Martinez — the Dona Ana County DA, who despite a Sarah Palin endorsement is polling competitively with certain Dem nomineee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish — and Allen Weh, the former state party chair and bit player in the US Attorneys firing scandal, who’s financing his run mostly out of pocket. Pete Domenici Jr. had been expected to be competitive but foundered after offering no rationale for his campaign other than his lineage. Janice Arnold-Jones and Doug Turner round out the field. (C)

AL-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 3/29 in parens):

Artur Davis (D): 33 (33)

Bradley Byrne (R): 47 (50)

Artur Davis (D): 39 (35)

Tim James (R): 45 (49)

Artur Davis (D): 40 (44)

Roy Moore (R): 43 (40)

Artur Davis (D): 33

Robert Bentley (R): 46

Ron Sparks (D): 32 (33)

Bradley Byrne (R): 45 (43)

Ron Sparks (D): 37 (34)

Tim James (R): 42 (38)

Ron Sparks (D): 40 (40)

Roy Moore (R): 38 (35)

Ron Sparks (D): 31

Robert Bentley (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Gov (5/19, likely voters):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 53

Jim Keet (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/19 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (38)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (50)

Steve Poizner (R): 42 (32)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (43)

John Oxendine (R): 43 (45)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (39)

Nathan Deal (R): 47 (46)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (41)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (42)

Eric Johnson (R): 38 (37)

Thurbert Baker (D): 29 (34)

John Oxendine (R): 50 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (31)

Nathan Deal (R): 47 (47)

Thurbert Baker (D): 32 (36)

Karen Handel (R): 43 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (35)

Eric Johnson (R): 42 (38)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Michael Thurmond (D): 30 (35)

Johnny Isakson (R): 57 (51)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 3/10 in parens):

Mark Dayton (D): 35 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (35)

Tom Horner (I): 12 (7)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 36 (34)

Tom Emmer (R): 38 (37)

Tom Horner (I): 11 (10)

Matt Entenza (D): 34 (28)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (37)

Tom Horner (I): 12 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (5/18-19, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tracy Potter (D): 23 (24)

John Hoeven (R): 72 (69)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 3/24 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 43 (51)

Susana Martinez (R): 42 (32)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (52)

Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 30 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (45)

Allen Weh (R): 39 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (52)

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 31 (30)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (43)

Doug Turner (R): 31 (34)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Sen (5/24, likely voters):

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 51

Jim Huffman (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/26 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (41)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/26, likely voters, 5/4 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (52)

Don Benton (R): 35 (38)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (51)

Clint Didier (R): 37 (36)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)

Paul Akers (R): 32 (35)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (44)

Scott Walker (R): 48 (46)

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (46)

Mark Neumann (R): 44 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 46

Ron Johnson (R): 44

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47

Dave Westlake (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• CA-Sen: For a brief shining moment there, Tom Campbell had some good news: in the April 1-May 19 reporting period, Campbell actually outraised Carly Fiorina from outside donors. Campbell pulled in $990K while Fiorina got $909K. Fiorina’s response? She wrote herself another seven-figure check.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s 7-word-long Google ad attacking Jeff Greene (almost haiku-like in its simplicity: “What has Jeff Greene done? Experience matters.”) prompted a 300-word press release from the Greene camp landing some solid hits on Crist.

• KY-Sen: In terms of rocking the political boat, this probably isn’t as eye-opening as his comments about the Civil Rights Act or the NAFTA Superhighway, but it’s one more weird, sketchy act by Rand Paul: in 1999, he created a whole new certifying body for ophthalmologists, the National Board of Ophthalmology, in order to compete with the establishment American Board of Ophthalmology. The NBO has looser certification requirements than the ABO.

• NH-Sen (pdf): Republican pollster Magellan has been really active lately in GOP primaries where they don’t have any skin in the game; they’re back to looking at the New Hampshire Senate race. They find the real race here between Kelly Ayotte, at 38, and Bill Binnie, at 29. Ovide Lamontagne is lagging at 9, with Jim Bender at 4.

• OH-Sen, OH-Gov (pdf): The Ohio Poll, conducted by the University of Cincinnati, is out today with pleasant results for Democrats (perhaps doubly so, considering they have a reputation for producing GOP-leaning results). They find Dem Lee Fisher with a one-point lead over GOPer Rob Portman in the Senate race, 47-46. They also find incumbent Dem Ted Strickland looking OK in the gubernatorial race, leading John Kasich 49-44 (and sporting a surprisingly high 55/35 approval, suggesting that whatever he’s been doing lately has been working).

• FL-Gov: Ad wars are reaching a fever pitch in the GOP primary in the Florida gubernatorial race; Rick Scott placed a sixth major media buy for another $2.9 million, taking his total to $10.9 million. We’ve also found out more about that mystery group that’s planning to spend nearly a million hitting Scott (primarily on the issue of the fraud charges against his company): it’s the Alliance for America’s Future. While it’s not clear what their interest in Bill McCollum is, the group is headed by Mary Cheney (daughter of Dick).

• HI-Gov: After many months of operating in running-but-not-running limbo, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann made it official yesterday: he’ll run in the Democratic gubernatorial primary against ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie.

• NM-Gov: Former state GOP chair Allen Weh, who’s turned into the main GOP primary opposition to Susana Martinez by virtue of his money, just loaned himself another $600K for the home stretch, on top of $1 million he’s already contributed. Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is unopposed in the Dem primary, but watching Martinez catch up to her in polls of the general, has launched into a fundraising frenzy as of late; she’s raised $464K from donors in the last three weeks.

• SC-Gov (pdf): Two different polls are out in South Carolina: one, from Insider Advantage, continues the trend of giving an advantage to Nikki Haley (and the survey period was May 25, after the current imbroglio broke). Haley is at 31, Andre Bauer at 21, Gresham Barrett at 14, and Henry McMaster at 13. On the Dem side, Vince Sheheen leads at 26, with Jim Rex at 17 and Robert Ford at 12. SCIndex didn’t look at the primaries, but had some rather heartening numbers for November: Generic Republican leads Generic Dem only 46-44 in the gubernatorial race, while in the Senate race, Jim DeMint leads Democratic challenge Vic Rawl only 50-43.

• IN-03: Mitch Daniels made it official today, setting the date for the special election to replace resigned Mark Souder on Nov. 2, at the same time as the general election. (So the special election’s winner will only serve during the House’s lame duck session.) The state GOP will pick its candidates for both elections at a June 12 caucus; presumably, they’ll choose the same person for both.

• MO-08: Where’s the New York Times when you need them? Rep. Jo Ann Emerson just lied big-time about her Dem opponent Tommy Sowers’ military record, saying that her opposition to DADT repeal was based on talking to actual commanders, as opposed to Sowers, who “never commanded anybody.” Um, yeah… except for that platoon of combat engineers that Sowers led in Kosovo.

• MS-01: Wow, even Mississippi Dems are now taking a page from the Gray Davis playbook. A Dem 527 called “Citizens for Security and Strength” is hitting presumed Republican frontrunner state Sen. Alan Nunnelee prior to the primary as a “hypocrite on taxes.” Apparently they too are sensing some late-game momentum by Henry Ross, a teabagger whom they’d much rather Travis Childers face in the general than financially-flush establishment figure Nunnelee, and would like to facilitate a Ross victory (or at least a runoff).

• NC-08: Thinking that Barack Obama is a Kenyan secret Muslim? Check. Wanting to repeal the 17th Amendment? Great! Thinking that there’s a 1,000-foot-high pyramid in Greenland? Sorry, that’s a fridge too far even for the teabaggers of North Carolina. Six leaders among the local Tea Partiers publicly switched their allegiances to Harold Johnson in the runoff in the 8th, following revelations of just how off-the-rails their one-time fave Tim d’Annunzio is.

• NY-23: Determined to relive the NY-23 special election over and over again, the Concerned Women of America are sticking with their endorsement of Doug Hoffman, who seems on track to pick up the Conservative Party line while the GOP line goes elsewhere (like Matt Doheny, most likely).

• Votes: The repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell cleared the House by a 234-194 margin yesterday, with 5 GOPers voting yes and 26 Dems voting no. The GOP ‘ayes’ were Judy Biggert, Joe Cao, Charles Djou (in his first week of work), Ron Paul, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. Dem no votes were — no surprise — mostly vulnerable members in culturally conservative areas: Berry, Bishop (GA), Boucher, Bright, Carney, Childers, Costello, Critz, Davis (TN), Donnelly, Edwards (TX), Etheridge, Green (TX), Lipinski, Marshall, McIntyre, Ortiz,  Peterson, Pomeroy, Rahall, Ross, Shuler, Skelton, Spratt, Tanner, and Taylor.

• Polltopia: Somebody must have slipped some Red Bull into Nate Silver’s Ovaltine lately, as he’s just landed his third hard hit on Rasmussen in as many days. Today, it’s their Wisconsin Senate race poll showing the unknown Ron Johnson competitive (and known by 68% of likely voters) that’s drawing Nate’s ire.

SurveyUSA (5/23-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

Susana Martinez (R): 43

Allen Weh (R): 33

Doug Turner (R): 8

Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 8

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 3

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.6%)

SurveyUSA has a number of early voters in this sample (19%), and they’ve broken for Sarah Palin-endorsed Dona Ana District Attorney Susana Martinez over businessman Allen Weh by a 50-33 margin. (Another poll floating around the tubes, this one paid for by New Mexico political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has Martinez up by 41-30 over Weh.)

But the most interesting part of this poll is its general election match-ups, which may shake up assumptions that Democratic Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is favored in November:

Diane Denish (D): 43

Susana Martinez (R): 49

Undecided: 8

Diane Denish (D): 49

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 35

Undecided: 16

Diane Denish (D): 46

Pete Domenici, Jr. (R): 40

Undecided: 14

Diane Denish (D): 50

Doug Turner (R): 36

Undecided: 14

Diane Denish (D): 47

Allen Weh (R): 42

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±2.7%)

I have feared for some time now that SSP’s current rating of this race, Likely Democratic, may have been too optimistic given the nature of this cycle, but the absence of any poll numbers to confirm that suspicion has made any move difficult to justify. Indeed, even Rasmussen found Denish crushing Martinez by nearly 20 points back in March, and a PPP poll from February found Denish leading her opponents by spreads varying from five points (against Domenici the younger) and 18 points (against Weh). The one parallel between PPP’s poll and this one is that Denish was in the mid-40s in all of her match-ups back in February — it’s really only Martinez’s strength that has changed the ballgame this time around. It seems possible that Martinez’s primary ad blitz is carrying over into some general election appeal.

• AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.

• AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.

• IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.

• KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)

• CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.

• CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.

• NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.

• NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.

• OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.

• NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.

• NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)

• OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”

• WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.

• CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.

• Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!