Tag: OR-Gov

• FL-Sen: Politico has a new FL-Sen piece provocatively titled “Democrats flirt with backing Charlie Crist,” but it points to some definitely solidifying conventional wisdom: that Crist, who has been steadily moving to the left in his independent bid, is becoming more appealing to local Dem power brokers as something of a de facto Dem candidate. This is especially the case if Jeff Greene, who has no base and a truckload of vulnerabilities, somehow spends his way into snatching the Dem nomination from Kendrick Meek. Along those lines, Crist‘s latest repositioning is on the issue of travel to Cuba, where he’d previously backed restrictions on travel and remittances but is now moving more in line with freer Democratic positions.

• NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall got an endorsement from MoveOn with less than a week to go until the Senate runoff against Cal Cunningham. It’s kind of late in the game, but MoveOn money may fund some last-minute ground-pounding.

• NV-Sen: Why do I have the feeling that Sharron Angle is going to get her own bullet every morning filled with the latest crazy revelations about her? I don’t even know where to begin: hot on the heels of revelations that she used to be a member of the right-wing Independent American Party in the 1990s (which she left because of political expedience to run for state Assembly) comes today’s revelations that in the 1980s she left the Republican Party at the height of the Reagan era to become a… Democrat? (She says she did so to help a conservative Dem with his state Senate campaign.) Well, now she can claim she’s tripartisan. Also from yesterday were, of course, revelations that in January of this year she floated the possibility of armed insurrection if Congress “keeps going the way it is.”

With the NRSC playing whack-a-mole with daily Angle bombshells, John Cornyn says he’ll be rolling her out verrrrrrry slowly… it’ll be “a few weeks” before she’s ready to take questions from the press. This comes on top of several stories about Cornyn’s more centrist colleagues cautiously distancing themselves from Angle, with Scott Brown and Olympia Snowe saying they aren’t getting involved, and Dick Lugar taking exception to most of her key action items. At least Jim DeMint is coming to her rescue, paying for some IEs on her behalf out of his PAC money.

• MI-Gov (pdf): Magellan’s out with another public poll of a Republican primary, this time in Michigan. They find Peter Hoekstra narrowly in the lead at 26, with Rick Snyder at 20, Mike Cox at 16, Mike Bouchard at 11, and Tom George at 2. Meanwhile, Cox seems to at least be winning the endorsement game; he got two more nods today, both from two of Hoekstra’s slightly more moderate House colleagues: Dave Camp and Thad McCotter. (Candice Miller, on the other hand, backed Hoekstra last week.)

• OR-Gov: Here’s quick about-face from John DiLorenzo, a Portland attorney who’d fronted himself six figures to launch an independent gubernatorial candidacy. Today he decided not to run after all; he had an interesting explanation, in that he felt that both Dem John Kitzhaber and GOPer Chris Dudley were moderate enough that there really wasn’t any room for him to carve out some space in the middle.

• NC-11: GOP nominee Jeff Miller is out with an internal poll from POS conducted several weeks ago that show him in somewhat competitive territory against Democratic Rep. Heath Shuler. The poll gives Shuler a 46-34 edge over Miller. Miller is on the wrong end of 10:1 cash advantage for Shuler, but just got a FreedomWorks endorsement which may help him gain some ground.

• NJ-06: It looks like the GOP primary in the 6th, the last race from Super Duper Tuesday not to be called, is finally over. Diane Gooch, the pre-primary favorite, at least based on her NRCC backing, conceded and said she won’t seek a recount. Anna Little finished 84 votes ahead of Gooch, who endorsed Little for the run against long-time Dem Rep. Frank Pallone.

• NY-24: Here’s one more big problem for endangered Rep. Mike Arcuri: GOP opponent Richard Hanna got the endorsement of the statewide Independence Party. There’s one catch, though; the Cayuga County Independence Party isn’t on board, and say they’d prefer to endorse Arcuri (and take great issue with the selection process, or lack thereof). It’s unclear for now how the state and county parties will resolve the dispute. Hanna got the 2008 IP line, which probably helped him keep things surprisingly close that year.

• OH-12: GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi was yesterday declared one of only nine GOPers who need continued financial support, largely because he’s facing a top-tier challenge from Franklin Co. Commissioner Paula Brooks. Brooks got a big fundraising boost today with an endorsement from EMILY’s List, which should help send some money in the direction of one of the few places where Dems are playing offense.

• TN-04: One more internal poll to report on, although it’s incredibly stale (from late March… however it was just brought to our attention, thanks to a tipster in the comments). A poll by Republican pollster OnMessage finds Rep. Lincoln Davis — a Dem in a terrible district but facing small-fry opposition — leads his two possible opponents, Scott DesJarlais and Jack Bailey, by identical 44-33 margins.

• UT-02: It sounds like the GOP is still maintaining hopes of monkeying around with the Dem primary in the 2nd, as there are subtle rumblings of efforts to get teabaggers to cross over and vote for very liberal (and probably unelectable in the general) Claudia Wright instead of Rep. Jim Matheson in the Dem primary. Somehow that doesn’t seem likely, though, considering that those same voters would probably like to have a say in the hard-fought and likely close Republican Senate primary between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater on the same day (June 22).

• WI-08: The crowd in the GOP field in the 8th is a little smaller; retired physician Marc Trager dropped out of the race, citing health reasons. He gave his backing to state Rep. Roger Roth, who still faces ex-state Rep. Terri McCormick, contractor Reid Ribble, and county supervisors Marc Savard and Andy Williams.

• VA-St. House: The GOP held seats in the state House of Delegates in two special elections last night, meaning they still control that chamber 59-39 (with 2 GOP-leaning indies). Both were in fairly red territory, but the Dems had felt they had a potentially strong candidate in HD-15 in Harrisonburg mayor Kai Degner. Degner lost to Tony Wilt, 66-34. In Chesterfield County in Richmond’s suburbs, Roxanne Robinson beat William Brown with 72%.

Taking the last non-Rasmussen polls (four as maximum) and calculating the average between the key numbers of the polls we have the next rank:

(Begining from the number of democratic senate seats and the number of democratic governors what need not run for reelection this year, the first number mean the number of democratic senate seats and governors what dems would have winning until every race of the list.)

(When I tell not the number of polls is because they are four or more)

(I bold emphasize the race with a negative poll what include an outsider key value what make down the average).

RANK OF SENATE AND GUBERNATORIAL RACES BY LAST NO-RASMUSSEN POLLS AVERAGE

41 senate seats in the democratic caucus need not run this year.

07 democratic governors need not run this year.

And taking L Chafee and C Crist as friendly candidates:

42S +??.??% VT-Sen 0 polls

43S +??.??% MD-Sen 0 polls

44S +??.??% HI-Sen 0 polls

08G +38.50% AR-Gov 2 polls

09G +37.75% NY-Gov

45S +36.67% NY-Sen 3 polls

10G +23.50% NH-Gov

46S +22.75% OR-Sen

47S +21.00% NY-Sen(s)

11G +20.00% RI-Gov 2 polls

48S +19.25% CT-Sen

49S +15.67% WI-Sen 3 polls

12G +10.67% HI-Gov 3 polls

13G +09.00% AZ-Gov

14G +07.67% CT-Gov 3 polls

15G +07.50% MA-Gov

16G +07.00% MD-Gov

17G +06.25% CA-Gov

50S +06.25% WA-Sen

51S +06.00% FL-Sen

18G +05.25% OH-Gov

19G +04.00% NM-Gov 2 polls

52S +04.00% CA-Sen

53S +03.00% OH-Sen

20G +02.00% MN-Gov

21G +02.50% OR-Gov 2 polls

22G +02.00% VT-Gov 1 poll

23G +01.75% CO-Gov

54S +01.50% CO-Sen

55S +01.25% PA-Sen

56S +01.00% MO-Sen

57S +00.75% NV-Sen

24G =??.??% ME-Gov 0 polls

25G – 00.50% IL-Gov

**** – 00.75% NJ-Gov

58S – 01.50% IL-Sen

26G – 01.50% GA-Gov

59S – 04.25% KY-Sen

60S – 04.75% NC-Sen

**** – 05.75% MA-Sen

27G – 06.00% TX-Gov

28G – 06.25% WI-Gov

29G – 06.50% FL-Gov

61S – 09.25% NH-Sen

30G – 10.00% SC-Gov 1 polls

31G – 11.00% NV-Gov

62S – 11.00% IN-Sen 2 polls

32G – 11.75% IA-Gov

33G – 12.67% AL-Gov 3 polls

34G – 13.00% PA-Gov

35G – 13.00% SD-Gov 1 poll

63S – 14.25% LA-Sen

**** – 14.25% VA-Gov

64S – 15.00% DE-Sen 2 polls

36G – 15.25% MI-Gov

65S – 15.25% AR-Sen

66S – 16.00% IA-Sen

37G – 16.25% OK-Gov

…

I take as the negative outsider polls, the polls what have a difference of -9.50 or more with the average (higher with the other polls for the race).

This is a rank of outsider values:

(The first number is the difference between the outsider value and the average for the race).

– 12.50% NH-Gov by PPP

– 11.00% PA-Gov by Muhlenberg College

– 10.75% MN-Gov by Survey USA

– 10.00% NM-Gov by Survey USA

– 10.00% IA-Sen by PPP

– 09.75% OR-Sen by Survey USA

– 09.75% WI-Gov by St Norbert College

– 09.50% IL-Gov by PPP

– 09.50% OR-Gov by Survey USA

The two colleges seems local pollsters attacking the democratic prospect in PA and WI. I worry about WI-Gov race because I think should be better than this and no-one is polling the race. Without the outsider poll, the average for WI-Gov race would be – 02.25%.

Survey USA seems begin a campaign for include outsider values for the races with lower number of polls (the poll for WA-Sen was too an outsider value but is not included because they are more recent polls for the race). ME-Gov with 0 polls and VT-Gov with 1 poll are good candidates for the next Survey USA poll in this strategy.

Just Survey USA polls create the alone positive outsider values at this level (+9.50 or more) because the average between the key value of two polls is in the middle of both values and if one is included as outsider, both values get as outsiders. A third poll would show what is the real outsider value.

And PPP has too some unpleasant polls. The dems from NH (the value for NH-Sen is not an outsider but is very bad too), IA and IL (Obama’s home state) are not favored by PPP what gives to they negative outsider key values in the polls. The new PPP poll of IL-Sen and IL-Gov races included after the updates, improves the previous numbers but still makes down the average of both races to negative numbers.

Of course all the races with positive average are races for fight and try win. And someone of the races with negative average can be too for fight but the democratic candidates need emerge. In the poll of the diary are included the 20 first races with negative average in the moment of write the diary (before the updates).

I will update the diary with the results of the new polls while the diary continues in the frontpage of SSP. I include too the reference of the NJ-Gov, MA-Sen and VA-Gov races with the average of the last four polls just before the elections of 2009 and 2010.

• AR-Sen: Bill Halter is “mulling” an endorsement of Blanche Lincoln, and wants a sit-down with her before doing so. Frankly, it’d be a big surprise if he didn’t endorse her: it didn’t seem like any more negative a race than usual by today’s standards; labor made its point and is probably eager to move on; and Halter would probably like to run for something else at some point.

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon has, well, a crisitunity on his hands with the oil spill in the Gulf. It gives him the chance to go on the offensive against David Vitter (who’s been trying to limit BP’s liabilities, and who’s also taken to Twitter to tout Louisiana seafood (now pre-blackened) as safe). But he has the tricky task of keep his district’s oil-and-gas dependency in mind; he’s aggressively calling Vitter a “liar” now… but only because Vitter has been saying that Melancon supports the Obama administration offshore drilling moratorium.

• NC-Sen: Bob Menendez continues to play favorites in the NC-Sen runoff, although it wasn’t with a large sum of money: Menendez’s PAC (not the DSCC) gave $5,000 to Cal Cunningham last week, as well as the same amount to Blanche Lincoln.

• SC-Sen: The slow-motion trainwreck of Alvin Greene’s media rollout continues apace in South Carolina, with last night’s go-nowhere interview with Keith Olbermann taking the cake. (Gawker concludes he may actually be, instead of a plant, just “some random dude.” Glad to see our phrasing’s catching on.) Jim DeMint is, for his part, denying that he put Greene up to this, while other Republicans are helpfully suggesting that Democrats may have put Greene up to it instead, in order to give Vic Rawl a visibility boost (because unopposed candidates don’t appear on the ballot). The Rawl campaign has had elections experts look over the voting patterns to try to figure out what happened, and they’ve already raised one odd red flag: the strange shift from the early absentee votes (where Rawl dominated) to votes cast on Election Day (which Greene won).

• UT-Sen: Bob Bennett, after hinting at it several weeks ago, went ahead and endorsed Tim Bridgewater today. Bridgewater is one of the two quasi-insurgents who finished ahead of Bennett at the state GOP convention, and will be competing in the primary against Mike Lee.

• CA-Gov: I think Godwin’s Law might not yet have been enacted when Jerry Brown was Governor the first time, but he might want to familiarize himself with it, after he was caught referring (apparently in jest) to Goebbels in reference to Meg Whitman’s saturation advertising. Speaking of which, Whitman just launched her first TV ad post-primary, in which (big surprise) she hates on taxes.

• FL-Gov: Looking for something that’ll stick against moneybags Rick Scott, Bill McCollum is now trying to attack him on his pro-life credentials, saying that Columbia/HCA hospitals performed abortions while Scott was CEO.

• OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA is out with a poll in Oregon that has a whiff of outlier to it (as any poll that’s about six points to the right of Rasmussen tends to): they find Republican candidate Chris Dudley leading Democratic ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber 47-40. Part of the problem for Dems might be that the poll has third-party Progressive candidate Jerry Wilson racking up 6%, which is assumedly coming out of Kitzhaber’s column. But the crosstabs have Dudley winning 44-43 in the Portland area, which, given that area’s sheer blueness, seems very odd (as counterpoint, Gordon Smith won the Portland area (Multnomah, Clackamas, and Washington Counties) 50-46 in 2002 en route to a 56-40 victory statewide, the Republicans’ high-water mark for about the last 25 or so years). They also have Ron Wyden leading Jim Huffman 51-38 in the Senate race (with 4 for a Libertarian and 2 for a Green), which also seems strange.

• SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who crashed and burned his car/plane in 4th place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, threw his support to 2nd place finisher Gresham Barrett for the runoff. He said Barrett was the only one he “could trust.”

• TX-Gov: The Green Party has agreed that it temporarily won’t put forth any candidates until there’s been a hearing in the lawsuit filed by the state Democrats. The lawsuit concerns whether the Greens unlawfully accepted a corporation’s help in obtaining the signatures it needed to (surprisingly) qualify for a ballot line in Texas.

• AL-02: The Tea Party Express weighed in with an endorsement in the Republican runoff in the 2nd, and they aren’t supporting the NRCC-backed establishment candidate, Montgomery city councilor Martha Roby. Instead, they’re backing billiards entrepreneur Rick Barber. Their beef with Roby seems to be that she backed a budget pushed by then-Montgomery mayor, now-Rep. Bobby Bright.

• KS-02: You may remember Sean Tevis, who became a netroots fave based on his clever cartoon depictions of his campaign and raised a surprising amount of money that almost let him knock off an incumbent in a red legislative district. Well, he’s moving up a level this year; he’s decided to run in the 2nd, against Lynn Jenkins (or Dennis Pyle, if he successfully teabags Jenkins). He still faces two other Dems, Cheryl Hudspeth and Thomas Koch, in the primary.

• NC-08: The SEIU looks like it’s going through with its strange plan to launch a third-party bid against Larry Kissell in the 8th; they submitted 34K signatures to qualify Wendell Fant for the ballot, much more than the necessary 17K. (The SEIU had previously tried to get a whole third party a ballot line, but that signature drive came up short.) Perhaps even stranger, Fant hasn’t agreed to run, at least not yet; he didn’t show up at the ballot-submitting press conference. Fant, it turns out, is an ex-Kissell aide who may have an axe to grind after getting dismissed for using a work computer to work on his own VA case.

• NJ-06: Diane Gooch, the self-funder who was expected to easily win the GOP nomination in the bluish 6th to go against Rep. Frank Pallone, is instead finding herself having to request a recount. Anna Little has declared victory, based on the 78-vote margin, after spending $22K to Gooch’s $430K.

• NV-03: Americans for Prosperity has Dina Titus in its sights; they’re taking out a $100K ad buy on network and cable (thanks, LVRJ, for actually reporting the details!), still harping on Titus for her vote in favor of health care reform.

• NY-13: Because the Republican/Conservative field in the 13th had some wiggle room to get even more messed-up, now another guy is trying to get in on the action. It’s Lou Wein, who’s going to try to petition his way onto the ballot against Michael Grimm and Michael Allegretti, each of whom have their own clique of powerful backers. Wein is more of a loose cannon — he’s best-known for winning 4% statewide in a 1990 gubernatorial bid on the Right-to-Life line, as well as an unsuccessful 1977 mayoral bid —  but if he can pick up the teabagger banner, he might make some waves here.

• VA-05: Jim McKelvey’s up to something weird here; we just don’t know what yet. He says he’s going to make up his mind this weekend whether or not to endorse Rob Hurt, to whom he finished 2nd in the GOP primary. His latest action is a head-scratcher: he’s starting his own PAC, the Take Our Country Back PAC, in order to “seek out, support, educate, train and elect conservative candidates on the local and state level in the fifth district and throughout Virginia.”

• Arizona: Here’s an interesting piece of data that should hearten Terry Goddard and Rodney Glassman: there’s been a surge in Latinos registering as Democrats since the passage of Arizona’s new immigration law. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as it closely mirrors what happened in the wake of California’s Prop 187 in the 1990s. The surge is also demographics-driven, given the fast Latino growth in Arizona, and in fact nationwide: the Census Bureau reports that, for the 2009 estimate, minorities will make up 35% of the nation, way up from 21% of the nation in the 2000 census. While much of that comes from increases in Latino births, a lot of it also has to do with more Americans self-identifying as multiracial.

• Governors: Josh Goodman does some number crunching and guesses that, with all the open seats and expected turnover this year, we’re on track to have 28 new Governors. That would be an all-time record for gubernatorial turnover (the previous record, 27, goes back to 1920).

• When Animals Attack: Best wishes for a quick recovery to Rep. Anthony Weiner, whose photo op went awry yesterday, ending with him getting stabbed in the hand by the horn of a large mohair goat. Apparently the most dangerous place to be is not between Weiner and a camera… so long as you’re a goat.

• AR-Sen: As predicted, labor doesn’t look like it’s going to kiss and make up with Blanche Lincoln. The SEIU says it won’t back Lincoln in November, if nothing else, seeing as how they have races with better odds elsewhere that they need to deal with. PPP’s Tom Jensen reinforces that point in a piece entitled “Write Off Lincoln,” listing a handful of total sleeper races where the polls have been better for Dems than Arkansas.

• CT-Sen: Campaigns don’t usually release internal polls showing them down by 13 points, but when all the public pollsters are showing you down by more than 20 after your blockbuster move failed and it’s a last ditch effort to get contributors to not write you off, I suppose it makes sense. A Moore Information poll finds Linda McMahon trailing Richard Blumethal “only” 51-38.

• IL-Sen: Glad to see that the mainstream environmental groups are starting to see the big picture of how Washington works instead of reflexively endorsing moderate Republicans who occasionally pantomime throwing them a bone (see also Reichert, Dave). The Sierra Club and League of Conservation Voters, who’ve backed Mark Kirk in the past in his House races, will be going with Alexi Giannoulias instead this year.

• NH-Sen: This seemed more like a cry for attention than a well-thought-out campaign pre-announcement when it happened last week. So it’s not surprising to hear that whistleblower/former state Securities chief Mark Connolly, after floating his name last week, has decided against running against Paul Hodes in the Dem Senate primary. (The same link also has a list of filings for New Hampshire’s state Senate… although Blue Hampshire has that data in helpful table form. Most notable: a troubling Dem-held open seat in a R+4 district.)

• SC-Sen: That didn’t take long at all, for the Democrats’ baffling new Senatorial nominee, Alvin Greene, to slide into Scott Lee Cohen territory. With revelations this morning that he’s facing felony obscenity charges, the state party is calling on Greene to drop out of the race. Mother Jones has some more detail on Greene that really plumbs the depths of his sheer unpreparedness for what he’s gotten himself into. I have no idea whether he’s a GOP plant (who got fronted the $10K filing fee to be a speed bump for Vic Rawl and wound up winning instead) or just a naif who accidentally wandered into the corridors of power, “Being There”-style, but either way, it makes for a great story.

• AL-Gov: It’s official; Robert Bentley finished in 2nd place in the GOP gubernatorial primary, earning him a spot in the primary, and, as expected, Tim James will file for a recount. AG Troy King just issued an AG opinion clarifying the whole issue of whether an automatic recount applies here: no, it doesn’t apply to primaries, so James is responsible for the cost of the recount himself. James still plans to do it, though, despite the cost of at least $300K.

• MI-Gov: Republican AG Mike Cox got endorsements from two key GOP power brokers: from the state Chamber of Commerce, and also from Dick and Betsy DeVos. I was a little surprised that the Grand Rapids-based Amway cult leaders didn’t go with their in-house western Michigan U.S. Rep., Pete Hoekstra, but Hoekstra claims not to be surprised, probably suggestive of some interpersonal tension with the DeVos family.

• MN-Gov: Here’s one more place the SEIU won’t get involved: the DFL gubernatorial primary in Minnesota. All three contenders seem to be friendly with labor, so the SEIU didn’t seem to want to play favorites in a field that’s basically a tossup.

• OR-Gov: Now this is odd… while Oregon has a rather New England-influenced politics, there’s no track record of quirky moderate independents running and winning there. Nevertheless, prominent local attorney John DiLorenzo is reporting a $150K loan from himself to his exploratory committee, in apparent preparation for a gubernatorial run.

• SC-Gov: I don’t think the RGA could tip its hand any further than it did last night, all but endorsing Nikki Haley, who still has to get past a runoff against Gresham Barrett, saying “the voters made a clear choice” and “the outcome is certain.” Barrett, for his part, is brushing that off and continuing to fight on.

• VT-Gov: You may remember Anthony Pollina, who ran as a Progressive and then independent in several gubernatorial races, going as far as to finish 2nd in 2008. Good news for Vermont Dems: Pollina isn’t making a third-party bid, or even running for governor at all this year; instead, he’s running for a state Senate seat. Also, it sounds like the local Dems and Progressives are getting smarter about not canceling each other out, as they plan to avail themselves more of “fusion voting” this year. (H/t terje; the whole comment is well worth a read.)

• AR-01: With the ink barely dry on Chad Causey’s victory in the Dem runoff, the Rick Crawford campaign released an internal poll showing them with a lead over Causey. The poll by POS gives the GOP nominee a 40-34 lead. While the district has a strong Dem tradition, Obama’s 54% disapproval in the district gives Crawford an opening.

• IN-03: There’s a tally of 15 different Republicans seeking the GOP nod for the special election to replace the recently-resigned Mark Souder; the local GOP will meet on Saturday to choose somebody. The most prominent name is state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who recently lost the IN-Sen primary, but the list also includes IN-03 primary loser Bob Thomas, two state Reps., Randy Borror and Wes Culver, and even a local TV anchor, Ryan Elijah.

• IN-09: Biden alert! The fundraiser-in-chief has added Baron Hill to his list of beneficiaries, and will be appearing on his behalf in Jeffersonville on June 28.

• PA-12: For his rematch against now-Rep. Mark Critz, Tim Burns is going to try a different campaign manager. Having lost by 9 in the special after seeming to lose the ground war, he parted ways with former chief Tadd Rupp.

• NRSC: John Cornyn admits that the NRSC’s wide playing field this November isn’t all good news, because their limited resources (currently $17.1 million) will be stretched thin. Somewhere Dino Rossi is thinking “Now he tells me…”

• Polltopia: Maybe the biggest story that people are following today is the quick decision, in the wake of the AR-Sen runoff polls (as well as MA-Sen, PA-12, and the AL-Gov D primary…), by Daily Kos to part ways with hired pollster Research 2000. However, Markos says the decision was more based on 538’s aggregate pollster ratings than any one poll. There’s no word yet on which pollster will be wearing the orange in the future. Mark Blumenthal has more on the decision, including R2K head Del Ali’s response.

AL-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 3/29 in parens):

Artur Davis (D): 33 (33)

Bradley Byrne (R): 47 (50)

Artur Davis (D): 39 (35)

Tim James (R): 45 (49)

Artur Davis (D): 40 (44)

Roy Moore (R): 43 (40)

Artur Davis (D): 33

Robert Bentley (R): 46

Ron Sparks (D): 32 (33)

Bradley Byrne (R): 45 (43)

Ron Sparks (D): 37 (34)

Tim James (R): 42 (38)

Ron Sparks (D): 40 (40)

Roy Moore (R): 38 (35)

Ron Sparks (D): 31

Robert Bentley (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Gov (5/19, likely voters):

Mike Beebe (D-inc): 53

Jim Keet (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CA-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/19 in parens):

Jerry Brown (D): 45 (44)

Meg Whitman (R): 41 (38)

Jerry Brown (D): 43 (50)

Steve Poizner (R): 42 (32)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (43)

John Oxendine (R): 43 (45)

Roy Barnes (D): 40 (39)

Nathan Deal (R): 47 (46)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (41)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (42)

Eric Johnson (R): 38 (37)

Thurbert Baker (D): 29 (34)

John Oxendine (R): 50 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (31)

Nathan Deal (R): 47 (47)

Thurbert Baker (D): 32 (36)

Karen Handel (R): 43 (44)

Thurbert Baker (D): 30 (35)

Eric Johnson (R): 42 (38)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Sen (5/20, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):

Michael Thurmond (D): 30 (35)

Johnny Isakson (R): 57 (51)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MN-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 3/10 in parens):

Mark Dayton (D): 35 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (35)

Tom Horner (I): 12 (7)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 36 (34)

Tom Emmer (R): 38 (37)

Tom Horner (I): 11 (10)

Matt Entenza (D): 34 (28)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (37)

Tom Horner (I): 12 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (5/18-19, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tracy Potter (D): 23 (24)

John Hoeven (R): 72 (69)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 3/24 in parens):

Diane Denish (D): 43 (51)

Susana Martinez (R): 42 (32)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (52)

Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 30 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (45)

Allen Weh (R): 39 (35)

Diane Denish (D): 45 (52)

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 31 (30)

Diane Denish (D): 47 (43)

Doug Turner (R): 31 (34)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Sen (5/24, likely voters):

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 51

Jim Huffman (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (5/24, likely voters, 4/26 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 44 (41)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (41)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/26, likely voters, 5/4 in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (46)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (52)

Don Benton (R): 35 (38)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (51)

Clint Didier (R): 37 (36)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)

Paul Akers (R): 32 (35)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Gov (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Tom Barrett (D): 41 (44)

Scott Walker (R): 48 (46)

Tom Barrett (D): 42 (46)

Mark Neumann (R): 44 (46)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WI-Sen (5/25, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 46

Ron Johnson (R): 44

Russ Feingold (D-inc): 47

Dave Westlake (R): 38

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is retooling her ad message quite a bit, now that it’s come crashing home to her that she actually has to suck up to that annoying Democratic base for a few weeks in order to win her runoff in two weeks. Her new ad features lots of Obama footage, and highlights her support of the stimulus package and… well, “support of” might be overstating it, so her vote for HCR. Compare that with her old ad saying “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.”

• IL-Sen: Jesse Jackson Jr. seems to be up to some serious no-good in the Illinois Senate primary, although the reason isn’t clear. He’s withheld his endorsement from Alexi Giannoulias so far, and now is going so far as to talk up his respect for Mark Kirk (they serve on Appropriations together) and float the idea of endorsing him. Is he using his endorsement as a bargaining chip to get some squeaky-wheel-greasing (like Jackson’s pet airport project – recall that he didn’t endorse 1998 IL-Gov nominee Glenn Poshard over that very issue), or is he war-gaming his own run against a first-term Kirk in 2016?

• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena is out with a slew of New York data today. They find Kirsten Gillibrand in good position in the Senate race against three second-tier opponents; she beats Bruce Blakeman 51-24, Joe DioGuardi 51-25, and David Malpass 53-22. In the GOP primary, DioGuardi is at 15, Blakeman at 8, and Malpass at 4. I guess they want to be thorough, because they also took a rather in-depth look at the usually neglected NY-Sen-_A_. Charles Schumer beats Nassau Co. Controller George Maragos 65-22, Jay Townsend 63-24, Gary Berntsen 64-23, and Jim Staudenraus 65-21. Political consultant Townsend leads the primary at 10, followed by Maragos at 5, with some dudes Bertnsen and Staudenraus at 3 and 1. They even poll Schumer’s primary, wherein he beats Randy Credico 78-11.

• AK-Gov: DRM Market Research (not working for any particular candidate) polled the two primaries in the Alaska gubernatorial race (which aren’t until August), finding, as expected, GOP incumbent Sean Parnell and Dem Ethan Berkowitz with big leads. Parnell is at 59, with 9 for former state House speaker Ralph Samuels and 7 for Bill Walker. Berkowitz is at 48, with 17 for state Sen. Hollis French and 8 for Bob Poe. Diane Benson, who ran for the House in 2006 and 2008, is running for Lt. Governor this time, and leads the Dem primary there.

• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks is out with some details from an internal poll with one week left to go before the primary, needing to push back not only against an Artur Davis internal but today’s R2K poll. For some reason, there aren’t specific toplines, but Sparks is touting a one-point lead over Davis. The poll also sees Davis polling at only 43% among African-Americans.

• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena has gubernatorial numbers, too. Believe it or not, Andrew Cuomo is winning. He beats Rick Lazio 66-24, Steve Levy 65-22, and Carl Paladino 65-22. In the GOP primary, Lazio is at 29, Carl Paladino at 16, and Steve Levy at 14. How bad do you think state party chair Ed Cox is feeling that his hand-picked Killer-App party-swapper isn’t even polling ahead of a bestiality-email-forwarding teabagger? Well, Cox’s performance here and the Senate races has been so miserable that the latest local conspiracy theory is that Cox is throwing in the towel on the Senate race so that his son, Chris Cox, can have an unimpeded run against Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012. (Of course, the cart is a few miles down the road ahead of the horse; there’s no guarantee Cox Jr. can even make it out of the GOP primary in NY-01, let alone past Tim Bishop.)

• OK-Gov: I don’t know if Mary Fallin is feeling any heat here, but nevertheless, she put out an internal poll taken for her by Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates. She leads both Dems, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson by an identical 52-30 margin. (UPDATE: The Fallin campaign writes in to say this wasn’t an internal, but CHS acting on its own.)

• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley airballed his first salvo of the general election against John Kitzhaber. Dudley accused Kitzhaber of having tried to put the state in debt by borrowing to balance the state’s budget during the 2001 recession. Ooops… Kitzhaber did the exact opposite, as he fought against doing so, against legislators of both parties. (Ted Kulongoski eventually signed off on the idea in 2003, after Kitz was out of office.)

• PA-Gov: Maybe one of his younger, hipper staffers warned him that he was heavy-handedly barking up the wrong tree, as AG and GOP nominee Tom Corbett did a 180, pulling his Twitter subpoena to try and ascertain the identities of several anonymous critics.

• SC-Gov: Well, as is usually the case, the most salacious political news of the day is also the biggest. A South Carolina blogger, Will Folks, who used to be on Nikki Haley’s payroll is now claiming that he and Haley had an affair (prior to Folks’s marriage, but after Haley’s). Folks, believe it or not, is supporting Haley, but apparently wanted to get this out there as other candidates have been pushing oppo research on this to reporters. Haley had had some recent momentum, with a big ad buy on her behalf from the Mark Sanford camp and a corresponding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll of the primary.

• TX-Gov: This is an internet poll by British pollster YouGov, so, well, have your salt and vinegar shakers handy. Working on behalf of the Texas Tribune and the Univ. of Texas, they find incumbent GOPer Rick Perry with a lead over Dem Bill White 44-35 (and similar-sized leads for the Republicans for all the other statewide offices downballot).

• Polltopia: Here’s some more hard evidence that pollsters are increasingly missing the boat by not polling cellphone users. A new Centers for Disease Control survey finds that nearly a quarter of the adult population is simply being missed by many pollsters (especially autodialers like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, given limitations on auto-dialing cellphones). The CDC also hints at how cellphone-only adults are not just more urban, more poor, less white, younger, and more Internet-savvy, but also less “domestic” and more “bohemian,” which Nate Silver thinks indicates a different set of political beliefs, too. Given the statistically significant difference between Pew’s generic congressional ballots that include and exclude cellphone users, the cellphone effect seems to be skewing polls away from Dems this cycle — the real question is, are those cellphone-only users at all likely to show up in November?

• Demographics: Josh Goodman has another interesting piece in his redistricting preview series of population changes in big states, this time in Illinois. He finds the greatest population growth in the suburban collar counties of Illinois, also the most politically competitive part of the state these days. While these all trended sharply in the Democratic direction in 2008, the question is whether that trend hold without the Obama favorite-son effect this year.

Last night was a lot of fun, but with over two dozen races worth watching, it’s easy to lose track of some of those important but lesser-heralded contests while getting mesmerized by some of the more marquee races that went down last night. Let’s do a brief re-cap of everything:

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen: The big story out of Arkansas is Bill Halter’s strong finish in the Democratic Senate primary against Blanche Lincoln. Lincoln ultimately ended the night with a 45-43 result, which was good enough to send this race to a runoff on June 8. Everyone is aflutter that Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison managed to scoop up 13% of the vote, a higher mark than the polls expected. While it might be tempting to speculate that Morrison’s votes will flock to the more right-wing choice in the runoff (Lincoln), I don’t really think that’s how it works. I’d expect Halter to pick up a share of these voters based purely on anti-incumbent spite, while others may simply crawl back into the woodwork, dissatisfied with both options. And for what it’s worth, Morrison says that he won’t be supporting either Dem in the runoff (or the general), and guesses that his supporters will split evenly between the two of them.

  On the Republican side, GOP Rep. John Boozman cleared the primary with an easy 53% of the vote over a very fractured Republican field. While Boozman gets the luxury of extra time to refill his war chest, it’s not the biggest loss in the world for Dems — we’re only talking about three weeks worth of time here.

• AR-01: Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge is headed to a runoff against Marion Berry’s former Chief of Staff Chad Causey for the Democratic nomination here. Wooldridge, a fairly conservative fellow whom Bill Halter beat in a runoff for the Democratic Lt. Governor nod in 2006, came in first with 39% of the vote. Causey, who was endorsed by Berry and some labor groups, scored 27%. The winner of the runoff will face Republican radio broadcaster Rick Crawford, who easily beat Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao, by a 73-27 margin.
• AR-02: Republicans nominated ex-US Attorney and Rove acolyte Tim Griffin over teabagging restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 62-38 margin, while Democrats sent state Sen. Joyce Elliott, a liberal African-American, to a runoff against state House Speaker Robbie Wills. Elliott won 40% of the vote to 28% for Wills. Departing Dem Rep. Vic Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, came in third with 19%.
• AR-03: In a district that is essentially the home base of Republican muscle in Arkansas, it’s too bad ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay didn’t manage to force himself into the runoff, if only to give us more opportunities to namedrop him. Instead, Republicans chose Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (31%) and state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe (13%) to advance to the runoff out of a very crowded field.

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen: In a night of amazing finishes, this one caused a lot of bubbly to be spilled in the SSP comments section. While Rand Paul sleepwalked to a 59-35 win over Trey Grayson, Attorney General Jack Conway executed a remarkable surge in the remaining weeks of the campaign, escaping a double-digit deficit to beat Dan Mongiardo by 44-43 for the Democratic nomination. Perhaps surprisingly, though, Mongiardo is holding out for a recanvass of the vote before he concedes. A recount will unlikely do much good for Dr. Dan, especially when you consider that there are still 13 precincts left to count in Conway-loving Jefferson County.

  Also, if this is any indication of Rand Paul’s campaign skills — hosting his victory party at an exclusive country club and then defending the choice on Good Morning America as non-elitist… because Tiger Woods brought golf to “the city youth” — this should be a pretty fun campaign.

• KY-03: Here’s another mild surprise. Despite a financial disadvantage, Air Force vet Todd Lally crushed Pizza Hut franchise baron and presumed front-runner Jeff Reetz by a 52-17 margin for the Republican nod to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Reetz, in fact, did so poorly that he finished in third — right behind real estate investor Larry Hausman, who took 25% of the vote.
• KY-06: We initially expected retired coal executive Mike Templeman to give attorney Andy Barr a run for his money for the GOP nod to take on Democratic fixture Ben Chandler, but this race was nothing short of a blow-out. Barr dispatched Templeman by a 64-10 spread.

Oregon:

• In Oregon, surprises were few and far between. Polling had given ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber a big edge over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury going into the Democratic primary, and that was borne out by Kitzhaber’s 66-30 win. Although Bradbury was rhetorically running to Kitzhaber’s left, progressives don’t need to be disappointed by the result; Kitzhaber’s track record is as a health care innovator, and he’s clearly eager to push forward on that now that he has a reliably Democratic legislature and the state-level flexibility afforded by the new HCR law. Kitzhaber faces off against Republican victor Chris Dudley, who won with 40% of the vote in a crowded GOP field (which is still less than his 46% career free throw average in the NBA). Dudley fought off a late surge from Allen Alley, who finished at 32%, after trying to make inroads with the conservative wing once Dudley staked out the same moderate turf where Alley had hoped to compete.

  In the Senate race, Dem incumbent Ron Wyden picked up 90% of the vote; he faces a not-very-competitive race against Republican law professor Jim Huffman, the best known out of seven nobodies, who prevailed with 42%. The NRCC got its desired candidates in the two House districts where it’s hoping to compete this year. State Rep. Scott Bruun had a solid performance in OR-05, winning with 62%, while Rob Cornilles was a bit more underwhelming, winning with 41% against a teabagger-clogged field in OR-01. (Crisitunity)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen: You gotta hand it to Joey Sestak. After months of stagnating in the polls and storing his powder safely in airtight Ziploc containers, he used some well-timed late hits to topple Arlen Specter by 54-46 in the Democratic primary. Given that Sestak has actually been performing more competitively than Specter against Republican Pat Toomey (who won his primary over Peg Lutsik by 63 points), this is probably good news over all for team blue.
• PA-Gov: In the end, it wasn’t close. Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato beat state Auditor Jack Wagner by 45-24 for the Democratic gubernatorial nod. Two Philly-area candidates, state Senator (and school voucher advocate) Anthony Williams and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel combined for 31% of the vote. Onorato faces a bigger challenge now in defeating Republican AG Tom Corbett. Corbett beat his no-name opposition with 69% of the vote.
• PA-03: Auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly narrowly beat well-funded retired businessman Paul Huber by 28-26. Kelly will be the Republican nominee against frosh Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper this fall.
• PA-04: Politics ain’t beanbag, and Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan found that out the hard way last night. Expected to easily clinch the Republican nomination against Democrat Jason Altmire by beltway progs when she entered the race, her ineptitude on the campaign trail resulted in attorney Keith Rothfus pasting her by 33%. Better luck next time, Mary Beth!
• PA-06: In a night that gave us some pretty good news all around, this one is particularly special for SSP. Democratic physician Manan Trivedi upset rich guy Doug Pike, who had donated over $1 million of his own money to his campaign effort, by a 51-49 spread. It looks like Pike still hasn’t conceded, but he’ll have to face the truth sooner rather than later. And here’s a nickel’s worth of free advice that I’ll give to anyone who’s interested in running for Congress in the future: You Don’t Mess With The Project.
• PA-10: Another ex-Bush era US Attorney, Tom Marino, was touted as a strong recruit who’d have little difficulty winning his party’s nomination against Democrat Chris Carney. Things got a little dicey last night, but Marino did end up succeeding where Mary Beth Buchanan failed. Marino won the nod with a 41% plurality over chiropractor David Madeira and Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk.
• PA-11: If there’s one race where things didn’t really work out for Democrats, it’s this one. Crusty incumbent Rep. Paul Kanjorski beat a divided Democratic primary field with only 49% of the vote — one of the weakest performances we’ve seen by an incumbent House member this cycle. That probably doesn’t bode well for the general election, where Kanjorski will face off with Lou Barletta for the third time.
• PA-12: Wow. After all the Republican swagger, did anyone honestly expect Democrat Mark Critz to beat Republican Tim Burns by 53-45 in the special election to replace John Murtha? Certainly Republicans appeared stunned, because I don’t think they would have tried to spin yarns like this one if they weren’t reeling from the result:
  

  “Republican Tim Burns ran an excellent campaign in one of the bluest of congressional districts,” Mr. Steele said in a statement Tuesday night. “Despite the fact that Pennsylvania’s 12th District has been a Democratic stronghold for more than 30 years and Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than 2 to 1, Republican Tim Burns pushed his Democratic opponent to the wire.”

  “One of the bluest” CDs? Shah! Right! Obviously Mikey was not reading from the same hymnbook as ex-Rep. Tom Davis:

  Tom Davis, a former Republican House member and top party campaign strategist, saw the win by Democrat Mark Critz, a former aide to Mr. Murtha, over Republican Tim Burns as a serious blow to the Republican claim to be within reach of the 40 seats needed to recapture the House.

  “If you can’t win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?” asked Mr. Davis, who said Republicans will need to examine what went wrong. “It would be a huge upset not to win this seat.”

  Or Charlie Cook, for that matter, from late April:

  Republicans have no excuse to lose this race. The fundamentals of this district, including voters’ attitudes towards Obama and Pelosi, are awful for Democrats. And Democratic party registration advantages here are just as obsolete as GOP’s advantages in Upstate New York were last year. Timing is no excuse for Republicans either. This special election, not the competitive statewide Democratic primaries held the same day, will be driving turnout on May 18th.

  Meanwhile, Burns managed to win his primary over direct mail scammer Bill Russell by 57-43, which means he gets the pleasure of facing Critz again in November. It’s pretty rare for the loser of a special election to win the rematch in the next general election. The last example of such a casualty, that I can come up with, was half-term Dem Rep. Peter Barca, who won a special election against Republican Mark Neumann in 1993. Neumann came back to beat Barca in ’94. Otherwise, this type of situation is pretty rare.

• PA-17: Democrat Tim Holden seemed to aggravate the base of his party with his vote against HCR, resulting in only a 65% win last night over his no-money primary challenger, Sheila Dow-Ford. On the Republican side, state Sen. Dave Argall only managed to beat veteran Frank Ryan by 1.4%.
• PA-19: Despite speculation that semi-sane GOP Rep. Todd Platts was endangering himself by openly seeking an appointment from Barack Obama to lead the Government Accountability Office, Platts dispatched teabagging challenger Mike Smeltzer by a 70-30 margin.

Maybe we can’t quite call it the “Super Tuesday” of congressional primary days, but based on the gravity of some of the races that will be decided this week, it wouldn’t be far off the mark. Two Democratic incumbent Senators are embroiled in stiff primary fights, and the outcome of both party primaries in Kentucky’s Senate race will weigh heavily on the competitiveness of that seat in November. All told, there are 28 elections worth watching today (by our count), with the promise of run-offs in Arkansas on June 8 if no candidate achieves a majority of the vote in their respective races. Also on tap for the weekend is the special election to replace Dem Rep. Neil Abercrombie in Hawaii’s 1st District, which is shaping up to be a disaster of Abercrombie’s making.

Arkansas:

• AR-Sen (D): Polling seems to indicate that the odds of Bill Halter coming out ahead of two-term incumbent Blanche Lincoln as falling somewhere between slim and none, but the presence of Paulist weirdo D.C. Morrison on the Democratic ticket may draw enough votes away from Lincoln to force a runoff in June. Outside groups have already spent millions on this race; labor has lined solidly behind Halter while Chamber of Commerce-types have funneled significant resources behind Lincoln, telling you everything you need to know about the ideological fault lines of this primary battle. If a runoff becomes a reality, expect this race to find yet another gear.
• AR-Sen (R): Again, first place isn’t at all in question here. GOP Rep. John Boozman’s superior name recognition has given him a big edge on the other seven dwarves of the GOP field. What is at stake, though, is whether or not Boozman (like Lincoln) can avoid a resource-draining runoff, and if not, which Republican contender will advance to the next round along with him. Boozman has stayed close to the 50% mark in recent polling, with ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (the GOP’s ’04 nominee against Lincoln) and state Sen. Gilbert Baker clawing for second place.
• AR-01 (D): With Marion Berry hitting the exits, four Dems have lined up to replace him, making a runoff a safe bet. Ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge, a pretty conservative dude who lost a runoff for Lt. Governor in 2006 to Bill Halter, is seen as the front-runner — a notion confirmed by the lone poll we’ve seen of this race. However, Berry’s ex-Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, leads the money race, and state Sen. Steve Bryles has raised six figures, too. State Rep. David Cook, who is probably the most liberal choice in this race (he favors the public option, according to his campaign site) is also the least well-funded, pulling in just $54,000 through the end of April.
• AR-01 (R): Republicans made a lot of noise about stealing Berry’s seat after he announced his retirement decision, but that sense of optimism didn’t result in an upgrade in terms of candidate recruitment. Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford started his race off slowly, but has begun to pick up the pace after Berry hit the exits, and that may be enough to make this a very competitive contest in November. The only candidate to join him the Republican primary is Princella Smith, a former aide to future ex-Rep. Joe Cao. Smith has proven to be something of a dud, only raising $67K for her primary against Crawford.
• AR-02 (D): The primary to replace retiring Rep. Rick Snyder is a pretty interesting one, with state House Speaker Robbie Wills seemingly leading the way in terms of November electability and insider connections, and state Sen. Joyce Elliott enjoying the support of the district’s liberal base. Snyder’s former Chief of Staff, David Boling, is also in the race and has raised nearly as much as Wills, so his presence can’t be overlooked, either. The Dem field is rounded out by former Clinton School of Public Service programming director Patrick Kennedy and assistant Attorney General John Adams, both of whom have not raised much money are not expected to win a significant share of the vote.
• AR-02 (R): Rove acolyte and ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin is expected to win this primary pretty easily, seeing as how he’s been out-raising Little Rock restaurateur Scott Wallace by a 6-to-1 margin. Wallace, however, tied Griffin at 20-20 in an early April poll of the race, and enjoys the backing of Mike Huckabee.
• AR-03 (R): Good luck sorting through this orgy of teabaggery. A whopping eight Republicans are duking it out for the right to succeed John Boozman in the House, pretty much guaranteeing that this sucker is going to a runoff in June. That early April Talk Business poll suggested that we’re looking at a three-way race between state Sen. Cecile Bledsoe, Rogers Mayor Steve Womack, and the aptly-named ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay, but ex-DEA official Steve Lowry, businessman Kurt Maddox, and ex-state Rep. Doug Matayo could also compete.

Hawaii:

• HI-01 (Special): There’s not a whole lot that need be said about this crazy-ass jungle election, where Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou looks poised to steal this seat. He of course faces off against state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa and ex-Rep. Ed Case, who used to represent the state’s other CD. The one final point I do want to make is that I blame this all on Neil Abercrombie. Had he not resigned unexpectedly, we’d never have wound up on this situation. I can appreciate that campaigning for the governorship of Hawaii when you are needed in D.C. can be quite a tiring task, especially for a septuagenarian. But Abercrombie knew he wanted to run long ago. He should either have stuck out his term, or not have stood for re-election in 2008. (DavidNYC)

Kentucky:

• KY-Sen (D): The Big One. While the tradmed seems to neglect this race in favor of seemingly shinier objects like Arlen Specter’s primary in Pennsylvania or Rand Paul’s surprising strength among Kentucky Republicans, the Democratic primary is the true race to watch out of Kentucky tonight. 2004 nominee and current Lt. Governor Dan Mongiardo had enjoyed a consistent and seemingly impenetrable lead against state AG Jack Conway, the candidate with less baggage to exploit in the general election. However, recent polls have suggested that Conway is coming on strong in the home stretch of this campaign, perhaps making the race a dead heat. Research 2000 had Conway pulling within three points while SUSA only had Conway down by one. This one should be tight.
• KY-Sen (R): This one shouldn’t be tight. You know things are bad when Trey Grayson is whining like a DUMBocrat about Fox News’ apparent preferential treatment of Rand Paul. Despite the best efforts of Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney, it looks like the teabaggers are poised to make a major victory tonight, as Paul leads by 18 points in the latest poll of this race. A Paul win today will make this a fascinating race in the fall — one that could potentially yield some major GOP headaches.
• KY-03 (R): Republicans are truly leaving no stone unturned in their quest to take back the House, and have a couple of warm bodies to take on two-term Dem Rep. John Yarmuth. Jeffrey Reetz, some guy who owns 25 Pizza Hut franchises, is facing off against Air Force vet Todd Lally. Both of these guys have raised six figures for their campaigns.
• KY-06 (R): After rocking his GOP opponent by 30 points in 2008, Ben Chandler has attracted a pack of mouth-breathers this time around, two of whom are somewhat well-funded. Attorney Andy Barr has been in the race the longest, and has raised over $400K. Retired coal executive Mike Templeman is his chief competition, while four other Republicans have only managed to raise chump change for the primary and are expected to be non-factors tonight.

Oregon:

• OR-Gov (D): The main story on May 18 in Oregon may be the 30th anniversary of the eruption of Mt. St. Helens, as there’s been little activity that would qualify as volcanic in either party’s open seat gubernatorial primary. The Democratic primary has been a low-key and civil contest between two long-time friends, former Governor John Kitzhaber (termed out after two terms in 2002, but angling for a return) and former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. Bradbury has big endorsers in his corner (Al Gore, Howard Dean) and gotten local progressives revved up by running to Kitzhaber’s left, but polling gives a wide edge to Kitz. (Crisitunity)
• OR-Gov (R): After bigger names like Greg Walden and Jason Atkinson passed, the question in the GOP primary was whether anybody other than Allen Alley, a former high-tech CEO who lost the 2008 Treasurer race, was going to show up at all. Eventually Chris Dudley, a former Portland Trail Blazers center from the 1990s, showed up and immediately assumed front-runner status simply by virtue of name rec and money. Most polling has given a lead to Dudley, but Alley seems to be closing in on him, thanks in part to Dudley’s (very large) empty-suit-ishness. Both are from the moderate end of the GOP; the more conservative options, ex-state Sen. John Lim and anti-tax initiative grifter Bill Sizemore, are there mostly to provide comic relief. (C)
• OR-01 (R): Sports industry consultant Rob Cornilles seems to have piqued the NRCC’s interest, as they’ve touted him as the man to take down Democratic Rep. David Wu in this D+8 suburban district. Before he can tackle Wu, though, he has to survive the GOP primary. Stephan Brodhead attracted some attention with his large bankroll, but SurveyUSA‘s poll of the primary indicates the main rival to Cornilles is teabagging mortgage broker John Kuzmanich. (C)
• OR-05 (R): Similarly, the NRCC has its favorite pony in the 5th: state Rep. Scott Bruun, a moderate from the wealthy suburban portion of this somewhat rural district. There was some brief hubbub that Bruun was vulnerable to a challenge from Tea Party-aligned retired businessman Fred Thompson (no, not that Fred Thompson), but SurveyUSA recently found that Bruun is on track to nail down the nomination. (C)

Pennsylvania:

• PA-Sen (D): The big kahuna. For a long time, a lot of observers (myself included) wondered when – or even if – Rep. Joe Sestak would go on the attack against the party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter. Well, Sestak’s certainly proved all the doubters very wrong. Polls are as tight as can be, and while he may not pull it off in the end, Sestak seems to have timed things perfectly. This should be quite the barnburner. (D)
• PA-Gov (D): A funny thing happened on the way to the primary: After a year of desultory polling showing pretty much all candidates in the teens and single digits, Allegheny County Chief Executive Dan Onorato completely pulled away from the pack. According to Pollster’s trendlines, Jack Wagner, Anthony Williams, and Joe Hoeffel are all still mired in nowheresville, so unless a lot of polling is very wrong, Onorato will be the Dem gubernatorial nominee. (D)
• PA-03 (R): There’s a crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, but only two dudes have shown serious scratch – and both because they’re self-funders: retired businessman Paul Huber, who raised $200K and loaned himself another $300K, and auto dealer and ex-city councilman Mike Kelly, who lent himself $165K on top of $80K in individual contributions. Other wannabes include Cochranton insurance agent Steven Fisher, teabagger Clayton Grabb, physician Martha Moore, and Some Dude Ed Franz, who have all raised about $30K or less. Both Huber and Kelly have been on the air with TV advertisements. A big question is whether Huber’s fundraising edge will outweigh the fact that he was a registered Democrat for 33 years – and only switched parties in 2008. (D)
• PA-04 (R): When Bush-era US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (one of the names that kept cropping up in the US Attorney firings scandal) got into the race, Beltway pundits seemed to think the GOP primary would be a mere formality for her before posing a strong challenge to Democratic Rep. Jason Altmire in this R+6 district in Pittsburgh’s suburbs. They didn’t count on one thing: Buchanan’s apparent ineptitude at jumping from legal practice to electoral politics. We don’t have any polls to go by, but her anti-establishment opponent, attorney Keith Rothfus has outraised her and is certainly making fewer unforced errors. (C)
• PA-06 (D): This race pits an SSP fave, physician and veteran Manan Trivedi, against someone we simply aren’t very fond of, newspaper publisher Doug Pike. But putting aside our personal preferences, what’s going to happen here? It’s hard to say, especially since we haven’t seen any polls. Pike, thanks to massive donations from himself totaling more than a million dollars, has a big money edge. He’s also gotten his share of labor endorsements, though Trivedi has scored some of his own, as well as the backing of some key county committees. I’m rooting for Trivedi, to be sure, but I think he has an uphill fight against Pike’s bucks. (D)
• PA-10 (R): Here’s another district where the GOP thought a former US Attorney would be just what the doctor ordered, and they didn’t quite get what they thought. Tom Marino was their hyped pick for the race, but questions about Marino’s relationship with sketchy developer Louis DeNaples have loomed large over his campaign. Marino’s fundraising has been subpar as well; what is likely to help him pull it out in the primary is that his anti-establishment opposition is split, with Snyder Co. Commissioner Malcolm Derk his most prominent foe. (C)
• PA-11 (D): Even though there’s a long-long-time Democratic incumbent here, Rep. Paul Kanjorski, the primary is on the Democratic side, rather than for the GOP (where 2008 opponent Lou Barletta is on tap for a rematch). Up-and-coming Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien is taking on Kanjorski. While he has only a fraction of Kanjorski’s money, he’s trying to outhustle the crusty Kanjorski on the ground, and also making electability arguments about the incumbent, who barely beat Barletta in the much-more favorable 2008. Without any polling, it’s hard to guess whether we’re looking at a WV-01-style unplanned retirement for Kanjorski. (C)
• PA-12 (Special): This, by rights, should be the main event tonight, as it’s the only Democrat vs. Republican matchup anywhere. It has all the makings of a dead heat, not only in terms of polling (most recently a 1-point lead for Republican Tim Burns over Democrat Mark Critz, according to PPP), but also the lay of the land. It’s an historically Democratic district with a huge registration advantage, but it’s trending in the Republican direction as district’s aged population gets its marching orders from Fox News instead of the union hall now. Much has been made of how this R+1 district was the nation’s only one to go from backing Kerry in 2004 to McCain in 2008. Critz’s close ties to John Murtha, and the fact that the special coincides with the hotly contested Democratic Senate primary, may help Dems win the day, though. (C)
• PA-12 (D/R): The regularly scheduled primary elections in the 12th for November are also on the same day as the special. While it’s likely that, whatever the special election outcome, Mark Critz and Tim Burns will be facing each other again in the general, that’s not guaranteed. Critz is likely to beat Ryan Bucchanieri on the Dem side, but Burns is facing a tough challenge from Bill Russell and leading only narrowly according to a recent Susquehanna poll. Russell, who was passed over by the state party for the nomination, was the 2008 candidate; he’s best known as frontman for direct-mail scammers BaseConnect, and as such, has had enough money for TV ads. Could we see a Neil Abercrombie-type result where Burns wins a special and loses a primary on the same day? (C)
• PA-17 (D/R): Most observers expect November to be a matchup of long-time incumbent Democratic Rep. Tim Holden, and top-tier-ish GOP recruit state Sen. David Argall. Both, however, have primaries to get through first. Holden faces Democratic activist Sheila Dow-Ford, who’s attacking him over his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, Argall (vulnerable over the issue of legislative pay raises) is barely keeping his head above water against fractured opposition, led by veteran Frank Ryan, who’s had some surprising fundraising success. (C)
• PA-19 (R): This has the potential to be a surprise: Rep. Todd Platts is an unusually moderate Republican given the R+12 lean of this rural district, and he’s also painted a target on his own back by publicly expressing interest on getting out of that job and moving over to head the Government Accountability Office instead. Opponent Mike Smeltzer is hoping to use that as a basis for giving Platts a good teabagging. (C)

• AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.

• AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.

• CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.

• IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.

• KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)

• CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.

• CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.

• NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.

• NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.

• OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.

• NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.

• NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)

• OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”

• WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.

• CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.

• Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist went the full-on “I” today; he made a big show of switching his own party registration to “no party affiliation” today, to match having filed as an independent to run for Senate. Free from his Republican shackles, Crist is also following through on plans to call a special legislative session on oil drilling, which could result in Floridians voting on a constitutional amendment to ban offshore drilling in Florida waters. And one final middle-finger to his former Republican allies: after previously saying he was open to refunding money to donors unhappy with his party switch, today he said he wouldn’t be giving any contributions back.

• NC-Sen (pdf): PPP’s out with another quick poll of the runoff for the Democratic Senate nomination between Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall. It’s a tie, with Cunningham and Marshall both at 36. While this would initially suggest that Cunningham (who finished 2nd) is picking up the bulk of the also-rans’ votes, that’s not the case; Marshall is still leading among liberals and African-Americans, which probably means she’s getting most Kenneth Lewis voters. PPP’s analysis is that Cunningham’s improved standing is a result of an enthusiasm gap between their supporters; Cunningham backers seem likelier to actually show up for the runoff.

• NV-Sen: Here’s something we haven’t seen in probably more than a year, which is half a lifetime in politics years: Harry Reid is posting a lead. Now, granted, this is a Democratic poll, although not a Reid internal; it was taken by Dem pollster Fairbanks Maslin on behalf of the New West Project. But still, this shows that the chickens have come home to roost for Sue Lowden, in the wake of her quadrupling-down on her HCR gaffe; she’s now trailing Reid 42-35 (with 5 for Tim Fasano, 3 for Scott Ashjian). Reid is tied with Danny Tarkanian, who isn’t gaffe-tainted (and in fact is now trying to tar and feather Lowden with it in the primary), at 37-37 (with 7 for Fasano and 2 for Ashjian).

• UT-Sen: One impure collaborationist down, one to go. With Bob Bennett out, teabagger frenzy is now turning to Orrin Hatch. Mason-Dixon finds Hatch’s 2012 numbers pretty weak, with a 35% re-elect and 51% wanting someone else. And that “someone else” is already making his interest known, more than two years out (probably with an eye toward goading the 78-year-old Hatch into retirement): ambitious freshman Rep. Jason Chaffetz.

• WI-Sen: Wealthy businessman Ron Johnson, the teabaggers’ horse in the Wisconsin Senate GOP derby, made it official, filing as a candidate today. He’ll officially launch his bid next Monday.

• AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne, the supposed moderate (by Alabama GOP standards) in the race, has had to two-step to the right and defend his creationist cred, after an ad from the “True Republican PAC” attacked him for the unforgivable sin of teaching evolution in schools. Turns out that there’s some tasty Democratic dirty pool behind all this: the True Republican PAC is funded by the state teacher’s union, the Alabama Education Association (who are also Ron Sparks’ biggest financial backer). Their rationale seems to be that they’d rather, Gray Davis-style, torpedo Bradley Byrne in the GOP primary, on the assumption that he’d be the most difficult Republican to beat in the general.

• CT-Gov: On the Chris Cillizza hierarchy of endorsements, I think this one falls under the category of “10) Wtf?” State Sen. minority leader John McKinney, who’d considered a gubernatorial run himself, endorsed neither of the GOP frontrunners, but rather the random businessman with the weird name, Oz Griebel. The former head of the Hartford Chamber of Commerce has been polling in the low single digits.

• OH-Gov: Lehman Brothers keeps turning into a bigger and bigger albatross around John Kasich’s neck. It turns out that Kasich, while he was head of Lehman’s Columbus office in 2002, tried to convince two state pension funds (OPFPF and OPERS) to invest with the now-imploded investment bank.

• OR-Gov: Yet another poll of the primaries in the Oregon gubernatorial race, confirming what’s come into pretty sharp focus lately, that it’ll be a John Kitzhaber/Chris Dudley matchup in November. Local pollster Tim Hibbitts, on behalf of assorted media outlets including Oregon Public Broadcasting and the Portland Tribune, found Kitzhaber beating Bill Bradbury 53-23 on the Dem side. For the GOPers, Dudley leads Allen Alley by a not-overwhelming 33-23, but there’s little time left for Alley to make a move. (John Lim is at 8 and Bill Sizemore is at 6.) They also looked at the Dem primary in the special election for Treasurer, finding a competitive race with lots of undecideds: appointed incumbent (and ex-Multnomah Co. Chair) Ted Wheeler leads state Sen. Rick Metsger 29-24.

• WA-Gov: The rumor du jour is that Chris Gregoire is now on the short list to become Solicitor General, assuming Elena Kagan gets promoted to the SCOTUS. Allow me to say: bad idea, if only because it means at least several months of Governor Brad Owen. Under Washington law, though, Owen wouldn’t serve for long, as a special election would be held. The timeline varies, depending on when Gregoire might quit as Governor. If it happens before May 31, a primary would be held, followed by a two-person general in November. If it happens after May 31 but before October 3, it would result in a jungle-style election in November. And if it happens after October 3, we’d be blessed with two full years of Owen. One other major wrinkle: if this looks like it has legs, it may shut the door on a Dino Rossi run for the Senate, as it’s a poorly-kept secret that he’d really prefer another gubernatorial run rather than wasting his third strike on getting pasted by Patty Murray, and this would be the way for him to do it.

• NY-29: David Paterson did the unthinkable and called a special election for the 29th. Heh… except he called it for the regularly-scheduled election day in November, so the winner will get to serve for a few weeks in the lame duck session, Snelly Gibr-style. Smart move by the Gov, as it saves Dems from a potentially embarrassing special election on a day when that’s the only story. Instead, the outcome will probably be that Tom Reed gets to start work a few weeks early.

• PA-12: Two polls are out today in the 12th, both giving a single-digit lead to Democrat Mark Critz. One poll is a Critz internal, so you’d expect a lead there: Global Strategy Group gives him an 8-point lead of 44-36 (up from 41-38 in mid-April). But the other is from Susquehanna, a pollster who often works for Republican candidates but here is polling on behalf of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (the GOP paper in town). They find Critz up 44-38, and Critz even leads by 19 among “super voters” (who’ve voted in 3 of the last 4 primaries). Interestingly, they find Republican Tim Burns’ woes increasing on two different fronts: he’s also in a “dead heat” with BaseConnect stooge Bill Russell (who got passed over for the special election nod) in the regularly-scheduled GOP primary on the same day. For some reason, specific numbers weren’t available for the GOP primary or the Dem primary, although it says Critz has “a majority” against Ryan Bucchanieri.