Tag: John Salazar

It seems that the “I only speak to real Americans” quitter Palin may in fact be running for President in ’12. She’s come out with a list of 20 targets – D house members who

– voted for HCR

– represent districts won by McCain in ’08.

The full list and propaganda are available on her Facebook page, ref http://www.facebook.com/notes/…

It seems like this could also be used to motivate the base to support these sometimes blue dog vulnerable Ds, as they supported HCR.

As Richard Nixon showed in the ’66 election, one path to the R nomination is based on campaigning for others in their party.

But such an effort would help Palin only if perhaps a majority of targeted incumbents are defeated. By definition, Ds in districts that McCain won in ’08 are in a more difficult position, but I think at least a few are entrenched.

Of these 20, 3 are retiring. (Vic Snyder AR-02, Brad Ellsworth IN-08, Bart Gordon TN-06). While we’ve got a shot of holding IN-08, it’s possible Rs will carry all 3. So Palin would need 8 of the remaining 17 to say she “won a majority of targets” and declare victory.

Just comparing the remaining names to one set of projections, (Sabato, ref http://www.centerforpolitics.o… (* highlights members of the blue dog caucus)

Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1     – tossup

* Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5   – lean D

* Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8  – lean D

* John Salazar, CO-3        – lean D

* Betsy Markey, CO-4        – tossup

* Allen Boyd, FL-2          – likely D

Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24  – tossup

* Baron P. Hill, IN-9       – tossup

* Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL       – tossup

* Charlie Wilson, OH-6      – not on board (assume solid D)

John Boccieri, OH-16      – lean D

* Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3    – lean D

* Christopher Carney, PA-10 – lean D

John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 – lean D

Tom Perriello, VA-5       – tossup

Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1    – likely D

Nick J. Rahall, WV-3      – not on board (assume solid D)

Of course, Sabato’s predictions are an arbitrary measure. I disagree with some of Sabato’s predictions. But assuming Palin has to win 8 of the remaining 17, she’d have to help Rs carry all 6 of the tossups, plus 2 of the 7 “lean Ds”.

Again, while over half of these targeted Ds are “blue dogs,” they all voted for HCR.

• AR-Sen: The news that the guy who held Blanche Lincoln to within about 10 points last time (in 2004) is getting back in the race this year seems like it should be a bigger news story than it is, but there’s an already filled-to-capacity GOP field and the establishment seems to have already picked favorites. At any rate, former state Sen. Jim Holt, closely linked with the state’s religious right, officially launched his bid today.

• AZ-Sen: It’s look more and more like ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is serious about pursuing a Republican primary challenge to John McCain and not just looking to fundraise his way out of some lingering legal debts. He’s been contacting consultants and pollsters about strategy, and he’s also made some high-profile appearances recently, including headlining a fundraiser for controversial Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. In response to the possible challenge, John McCain is launching two different radio ads full of right-wing language pretty transparently aimed at the teabagging crowd, saying Barack Obama is “leading an extreme left-wing crusade” and calling himself “Arizona’s last line of defense.”

• CT-Sen: Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, but it’s looking likelier that starting in 2013, Richard Blumenthal will be Connecticut’s senior senator. PPP finds that Joe Lieberman’s numbers, not good before his HCR sabotage, have gotten even worse. His approval is a mind-blowing 14/81 among Democrats (probably ending any plans by him to seek the Democratic nomination in 2012). He fares least worst among Republicans, who give him a 39/48 approval; it’s good for a 25/67 approval over all, along with a 19/68 approval of his actions on health care (which pissed off Democrats while still leaving Republicans unhappy when he voted for final passage). While the Hill’s piece on Rep. Chris Murphy seems to be based mostly on a vague sentence by Murphy, it does point to a suddenly congealing CW that Murphy (with Blumenthal already engaged) will be the person to tackle Lieberman in 2012.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov: You know you’re in trouble when you’re spending valuable time fighting rumors spread on Facebook by thoroughly discredited ex-Rep. Mark Foley. Charlie Crist today said there’s no truth to the rumors that he’s about to drop his faltering Senate primary bid and try for re-election as Governor instead.

• IL-Sen: Patrick Hughes, who’s been seeding his right-wing insurgent bid with some of his own money, is seeking to break out of the single digits in the GOP primary polls against Rep. Mark Kirk by upping his name recognition. He’s out with a TV spot today.

• MA-Sen: Martha Coakley is shifting her sleepy general election campaign into overdrive today with the special election several weeks away, launching her first general election TV ad. She’s also receiving the endorsements today of most of the key figures in the Kennedy clan, including Ted’s widow Vicky and ex-Rep. Joe (along with honorary Kennedy and temporary Senator Paul Kirk).

• ND-Sen: As we parse the comments from various potential Democratic candidates in the newly-open Senate race in North Dakota, it sounds like former AG Heidi Heitkamp is “very interested” and “very much looking into” the race, while talk show host Ed Schultz is “at this point… not even considering.”

• NY-Sen-B: Here’s an interesting possibility surfacing, as the GOP seeks anyone who’s willing to take on Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race: ex-Rep. Susan Molinari, who was considered a rising star back when she represented NY-13. She’s started floating her name out there (or more accurately, her dad, Staten Island GOP leader Guy Molinari), but one key point from the article is that Molinari — currently employed at the firm of Bracewell & Giuliani (yes, that Giuliani) — “left Congress in 1997 and currently lives in Virginia.” Meanwhile, as the potential Harold Ford Jr. candidacy is still the “wtf?” heard ’round the blogosphere, The Albany Project takes a deeper look at the mysterious forces pushing the idea front and center.

• IL-Gov: Desperately needing to make up some ground on incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn in the last month before the Democratic primary, Comptroller Dan Hynes is going hard negative against Quinn from the apparent right in a new TV spot, painting him as a soft-on-crime tax-raiser. Meanwhile, Quinn got the endorsement from the Chicago Sun-Times.

• MA-Gov: State Treasurer Tim Cahill’s independent candidacy for Governor hasn’t really seemed to have its desired effect for Cahill, as it mostly has allowed Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick to move ahead in the polls as Cahill splits the anti-Patrick votes. Cahill looks to be trying to lure some more GOP voters into his camp to become the definitive anti-Patrick candidate, though, with his running mate pick, GOP former state Rep. Paul Loscocco. It doesn’t sound like Cahill or Loscocco are very enthuasiastic about taking each other to the prom, though; Cahill already got turned down by four previous people he’d asked to be his running mate (including current Senate candidate Scott Brown), and Loscocco had previously been lobbying to be GOP candidate Charlie Baker’s running mate but missed the cut on that one.

• MD-Gov: Incumbent Gov. Martin O’Malley seems to have a fairly clear path to re-election, but for the time being he has higher-profile opposition in his own primary than from the Republicans. He’s facing a challenge from the right from George Owings, who officially launched today. Owings was a conservative Democratic state Delegate for many years and then picked by GOP Governor Bob Ehrlich as the state’s veteran affairs secretary (who was then sacked by O’Malley once he took office); Owings is attacking O’Malley’s tax raising and opposition to the death penalty.

• NE-Gov: Democrats are back to square one in the Nebraska gubernatorial race against GOP incumbent Dave Heineman, after Douglas Co. Commissioner (and former Omaha mayor) Mike Boyle — who’d sounded likely to run last month — decided against a bid. Democratic state Sen. Steve Lathrop has also ruled the race out.

• CO-03: Martin Beeson, the Republican DA for an agglomeration of small mountain counties, has pulled out of his bid for the GOP nod in the 3rd to challenge Rep. John Salazar. Beeson’s hopes dimmed when state Rep. (and 2006 loser) Scott Tipton got into the GOP field a few months ago.

• IL-10: Moderate Republican state Rep. Beth Coulson got a big (if unsurprising) endorsement, from fellow GOP moderate ex-Rep. John Porter. Porter held the seat for 20 years, until he made way for his former chief of staff (current Rep. Mark Kirk) in 2000.

• MN-01: Apparently John Wade, the president of Rochester’s Chamber of Commerce, had been interested in a run in the 1st against Democratic sophomore Rep. Tim Walz. He just decided against it, although a lone business conservative seems like he might have a shot at winning the crowded GOP primary, split between a number of loudmouthed social conservatives (most notably ex-state Rep. Allen Quist).

• MS-01: Good fundraising has propelled Republican state Sen. Alan Nunnelee up a tier in the NRCC’s framework for challengers. Nunnelee, who’ll likely face off against Rep. Travis Childers and his mighty ‘stache, is now a “Contender.”

• TN-06: Democrats are having trouble recruiting to fill the slot left behind by Rep. Bart Gordon’s retirement. State Rep. Henry Fincher just said no; he follows fellow state Rep. Mike McDonald in declining. It can’t be that appetizing, given the district’s reddening hue, several strong GOPers waiting in the wings, and the likelihood of GOP gerrymandering making the district even less hospitable in 2012.

• UT-03, UT-Sen: I’d be surprised if anyone were on pins and needles about this, but if you missed yesterday’s announcement, yes, Rep. Jason Chaffetz will be returning for another term in the House rather than getting into the primary against impermissibily sane GOP Sen. Bob Bennett.

• EMILY’s List: Stephanie Shriock, chief of staff to Sen. Jon Tester, will take over as head of EMILY’s List from Ellen Malcolm. It marks the first change in leadership at the top for the prolific PAC.

• RNC: After a revolt by what remains of its moderate wing, the RNC has backed down on its purity test (which would require 8 of 10 agreements on right-wing positions, and probably would have cut loose Mike Castle, Mark Kirk, Rob Simmons, and Charlie Crist loose from RNC funding). Now they’re simply requiring that nobody endorse any Democratic candidates in 2010. Meanwhile, Michael Steele continues to overshadow the rest of the RNC’s operations with his gift of saying odd things, with today’s installment a riposte to intraparty critics intent on withholding RNC donations because of Steele’s leadership: “get a life” or “fire me.”

• Gay marriage: It’s been flying under the radar with everything else going on this week, but New Jersey’s state Senate is currently debating gay marriage, with a vote possibly later today. Only 13 Senators have definitely committed to it so far though, short of the 21 needed for passage. (Dems are already short 1 vote with the absence of Dana Redd, who resigned after becoming mayor of Camden.)

• Census: Here’s an interesting conundrum for the Census Bureau — how to deal with the issue of the nation’s legions of sunbirds: retirees who live in the south for winter and the north for summer. It’s especially an issue for Minnesota as it seeks to stave off elimination of one of its Congressional districts, and it’s making special efforts to make sure long-term travelers list themselves according to their Minnesota addresses.

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42

Scott McInnis (R): 45

Some other: 5

Don’t know: 8

John (or Ken?) Salazar (D): 41

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 2

Don’t know: 9

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 6

Don’t know: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen strikes quickly to check out potential matchups between Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis and possible Democratic candidates, now that Gov. Bill Ritter has decided not to run for re-election. They find that Denver mayor John Hickenlooper fares the best of the three options, while former House speaker (and current Senate primary candidate, where he’s making no headway against the eminently beatable Michael Bennet) Andrew Romanoff does the worst.

You may notice the very strange configuration of John (or Ken?) Salazar above. That’s because, depending on where you look, Rasmussen is listing both names. Their article says Ken (the Interior Sec. and former Senator), which would make more sense, as his interest in the race has been loud and public, but the toplines page and the Pollster.com writeup say John (the CO-03 Rep.), which would make much less sense, as he not only hasn’t expressed interest in the race but has been speaking on his brother’s behalf. Rasmussen Reports? You decide.

RaceTracker: CO-Gov

• FL-Sen: Rep. Bill Young usually steers clear of endorsements, and the GOP Senate primary is no exception, even though Charlie Crist is a resident of his district. After attending a Pinellas County GOP event with Marco Rubio, Young reiterated that he wasn’t endorsing — and that his wife’s repeated gushing to the press that “I love Marco!” wasn’t an endorsement either. (A Pinellas County straw poll is set for January, which could be a big repudiation for Crist if he loses a straw poll in his own county.)

• IL-Sen: The Cheryle Jackson camp has an internal poll via Celinda Lake on the Democratic primary field in Illinois (although Chris Cillizza seems to be the only person who’s seen it yet). State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has a big, though not insurmountable, lead at 31, followed by Jackson at 13 and David Hoffman at 8. That leaves 45% still undecided, with only about three months to go.

• MA-Sen: One more endorsement for Rep. Michael Capuano in the Senate special election. With the endorsement of fellow Rep. John Olver, Capuano has the backing of the majority of the state’s House delegation.

• ME-Sen: These numbers might be alarming for Olympia Snowe if there was more of a Republican bench in Maine: PPP finds that her approval rating among Republicans is down to 40/46, and Republicans would opt for a more conservative alternative in a hypothetical 2012 primary, 59-31. Snowe has 64% approval among all liberals and moderates, but even in Maine, 68% of GOPers identify as conservatives. Hopefully the Club for Growth already has these numbers and are rubbing their hands together gleefully, which can only serve to drive her further into our camp.

• NY-Sen-B: With William Thompson having acquitted himself well in his narrow mayoral loss, rumors are now flying that have him running for just about everything. Most notably, Rep. Jose Serrano (who had flirted with the idea of a primary challenge for Kirsten Gillibrand) is now floating the idea of having Thompson run in a Gillibrand primary challenge instead. Thompson hasn’t said anything about it himself, but sources close to him say there’s one thing he doesn’t want to do, and that’s challenge Bill diNapoli in a primary to be state comptroller.

• UT-Sen: In the wake of AG Mark Shurtleff’s abrupt departure from the Republican primary field in the Senate race, two more names have surfaced to scope out the race against long-time incumbent Bob Bennett. Neither one has elected experience, but one has conservative bona fides (lawyer Mike Lee) and one has a lot of money (Fred Lampropoulos, who owns a medical equipment company).

• CO-Gov, CO-03: Up-and-coming state Senate minority leader Josh Penry dropped his longshot bid in the GOP gubernatorial primary, where he’s been lagging his former boss, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis, in fundraising and overall traction. Penry says, in wake of seeing what worked and what didn’t work in Tuesday’s election, he’s dropping out so the GOP could present a united front (and also, unspoken, he didn’t want to damage his brand for future runs). With Penry leaving a hole on the right, compared to the occasionally-moderate McInnis, another name-brand conservative is now interested in the race: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo. As unpalatable as Tancredo might be in a general, he has enough name rec and devoted followeres to make things competitive in the primary. You gotta love seeing the GOP civil war spill over into the gubernatorial races now too.

Rumors started flying that Penry was going to switch over to run against Democratic Rep. John Salazar in the 3rd, but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. One Republican who is running in the 3rd as of yesterday, though, is state Rep. Scott Tipton. It’ll be a rematch, as Tipton lost widely to Salazar in 2006. DA Martin Beeson is also in the Republican field.

• CT-Gov: I wonder if Jodi Rell had advance notice of this poll, and if its ominous results had anything to do with her seemingly sudden decision not to run for re-election next year? Quinnipiac’s newest CT-Gov poll found Rell only narrowly leading SoS Susan Bysiewicz, 46-40 (a bad trend from February, where Rell led 53-32). Rell fared better against Ned Lamont, 53-33, and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, 52-33. With the race now an open seat, though, the most relevant part of the poll is the Dem primary, which found a close race between Bysiewicz and Lamont, 26-23 for Bysiewicz, with 9 for Malloy, 3 for state House speaker Jim Amman, and 2 for state Senator Gary LeBeau (February’s poll, pre-Lamont, gave Bysiewicz at 44-12 lead over Malloy, indicating that Lamont ate mostly into Bysiewicz’s share). Bysiewicz also beats Lamont’s favorables (43/11, vs. 31/24). They didn’t look at any of the other potential Republican figures in the field.

• NV-Gov: A Republican internal poll (apparently conducted for right-leaning blog Nevada News and Views by PMI) finds former AG Brian Sandoval with a substantial lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary over incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons. Sandoval leads 36-24, with North Las Vegas mayor Michael Montandon pulling in 7. Democrats, of course, would prefer to face Gibbons, who already comes pre-tarred-and-feathered.

• RI-Gov: An internal poll from ex-Republican Senator and independent gubernatorial candidate Lincoln Chafee gives him the lead going into 2010, despite his campaign’s fundraising and organizational problems. Chafee leads Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio and Republican businessman Rory Smith 36-34-8, while Chafee leads Democratic AG Patrick Lynch and Smith 37-24-15. This race looks like it’s shaping up along the lines of the 2006 Connecticut Senate race, with a tossup between D and I, and a Republican spoiler struggling to escape the single digits.

• VT-Gov: The Vermont gubernatorial race is getting even more cluttered, but both developments seem to bode well for the Democrats. For starters, Anthony Pollina, who has run several times as a Progressive and then an independent spoiler (although spoiler may not be the best word since he managed to finish second last year ahead of the hapless Dem), is making noises that he’ll try running as a Democrat next year. With establishment votes already getting split a number of ways in the primary, Pollina has a shot at winning the Democratic primary. The other development is that old-school moderate Republican Michael Bernhardt is considering running as an independent, which presumably would siphon votes out of the Republican column. The 72-year-old Bernhardt is the former state House minority leader, last seen losing the 1988 gubernatorial race to Democratic incumbent Madeleine Kunin.

• NY-20 (pdf): Last evening’s total from the BoE had Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 401. With his chances approaching the “statistically impossible” realm, we may reportedly see a Tedisco concession today.

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who’ll hear the election contest (two justices who’ve been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn’t all that expedited: it’ll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he’ll stay in the House.

• PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor’s race in 2010, but we’ve heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he’s “laying the groundwork” and expects a formal announcement later in the year.

• TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor’s race. McWherter hasn’t held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.

• SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor’s race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.

• CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.

• CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who’s the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district’s lean.

• CA-36: Jane Harman’s high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman’s hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is “thinking about it.”

• MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com’s Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than… ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he’s not interested in running again. (J)

• NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)

• KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There’s more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.

• Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP’s candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.

• Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)

Denver Post:

Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper on Monday confirmed that he is interested in Colorado’s looming U.S. Senate vacancy.

In a brief interview, Hickenlooper touted his experience as a business owner and his time as mayor as pluses for Gov. Bill Ritter to consider when weighing whom he should appoint to replace Sen. Ken Salazar, who has been nominated for secretary of the Interior Department.

Ritter will appoint the person to serve out the remainder of Salazar’s term. An election would be held in 2010.

“I love my job,” Hickenlooper said. “I’m in that unique position in that I’ve got one of the best jobs that a person like me can have. But if you take someone like me who has spent most of his life in business and then at some point decides to give 10 to 15 years to public service, and you want to be useful, then you want to get the maximum benefit out of that public service.”

The mayor said he had one “formal discussion” with Ritter about the Senate appointment but declined to go into details.

This is a move I could get behind. Not only does the early polling look favorable for Hickenlooper, he got his start in the business world by opening a brew pub. Now there’s a guy I’d like to have a beer with!